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Elon Musk says SpaceX is still building a third drone ship – but is it for Falcon or Starship?
Unprovoked on October 9th, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk tweeted “A Shortfall of Gravitas” – the name of a third drone ship settled on a year and a half ago – and reaffirmed that plans were still afoot to build a third rocket recovery vessel.
This is the first update on SpaceX’s newest drone ship in more than a year and comes just a few months after drone ship Just Read The Instructions (JRTI) – formerly stationed in California – was sent East through the Panama Canal. News that A Shortfall of Gravitas (ASOG) is still in the works raises the questions: what’s the holdup and what role(s) will the new drone ship play in SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet?
Back in July 2018 and just shy of half a year after ASOG’s development was revealed, CEO Elon Musk indicated that the drone ship could be completed and ready for recovery operations as early as “next summer”, or Q3 2019. Now two weeks into Q4 2019, this can be interpreted in several ways, with the most likely explanation being that SpaceX’s naval contractor of choice is running behind schedule while building the new drone ship.
That’s the simplest explanation and operates under the assumption that Musk’s February 2018 comments remain true, meaning that ASOG is first and foremost (if not entirely) meant to support dual side booster landings for future Falcon Heavy launches and an increased Falcon 9 flight rate. However, recent developments give reason to believe that this may no longer be the guiding motivation behind SpaceX’s construction of a new drone ship.
Most notably, over the last several months of 2019, it has become increasingly clear that SpaceX plans (or hopes) to shut down its West Coast Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) launch facilities for anywhere from 9 to 18 months. In just the last few days, word broke that Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) believes that it will be able to open an East Coast polar launch corridor (essentially the same thing VAFB offers) just months from now, and SpaceX hopes to be its first user as soon as February 2020.
Possibly along those lines, SpaceX took the step of sending West Coast drone ship JRTI on a several-week journey across the Panama Canal. The drone ship has since stopped in Louisiana for what is assumed to be maintenance and it remains unclear if JRTI will head to Port of Brownsville (Texas) to support Starship test flights or to Port Canaveral to fill the role ASOG was initially meant to.
As such, it’s no longer clear if SpaceX actually has a need for ASOG, at least as it was described last year. If SpaceX is moving JRTI east for the indefinite future, OCISLY and JRTI could easily support the Falcon 9 launch rates needed for Starlink and dual Falcon Heavy side booster recoveries, although Falcon Heavy is not scheduled to fly again until late-2020.
This leaves one obvious option left to explain ASOG’s continued existence and delayed debut: SpaceX may have paused work for a variety of reasons and changed ASOG’s design to account for a new role in the recovery fleet. That new role would likely center around the extremely rapid progress SpaceX is making with Starship as it pursues a series of ambitious flight tests that could begin before the end of 2019.
Of note, an August 2019 Draft Environmental Assessment (EA) of East Coast Starship launches revealed that SpaceX’s initially plans to land all Super Heavy boosters on a drone ship stationed a few miles off the Florida coast. Starship may also require drone ship landings in the early stages, at least until SpaceX is able to complete the environmental review and licensing process needed before it can begin to land Starship/Super Heavy at Pad 39A and Landing Zones 1 and 2.
For now, we’ll have to wait and see where drone ship JRTI heads after its Louisiana interlude and hopefully find out soon whether ASOG is a drone ship copy or something else entirely.
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Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives is doubling down on Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) long-term upside. In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario, thanks to the company’s efforts to develop and push its artificial intelligence programs.
An aggressive valuation upside
Ives, Wedbush’s global head of tech research, stated in his post that Tesla is entering a pivotal period as its autonomy and robotics ambitions move closer to commercialization. He expects Tesla’s market cap to reach $2 trillion in 2026, representing roughly 33% upside from current levels, with a bull case up to a $3 trillion market cap by year-end.
Overall, Ives noted that 2026 could become a “monster year” for TSLA. “Heading into 2026, this marks a monster year ahead for Tesla/Musk as the autonomous and robotics chapter begins. We believe Tesla hits a $2 trillion market cap in 2026 and in a bull case scenario $3 trillion by end of 2026… as the AI chapter takes hold at TSLA,” the analyst wrote.
Ives also reiterated his “Outperform” rating on TSLA stock, as well as his $600 per share price target.
Unsupervised Full-Self Driving tests
Fueling optimism is Tesla’s recent autonomous vehicle testing in Austin, Texas. Over the weekend, at least two Tesla Model Ys were spotted driving on public roads without a safety monitor or any other occupants. CEO Elon Musk later confirmed the footage of one of the vehicles on X, writing in a post that “testing is underway with no occupant in the car.”
It remains unclear whether the vehicle was supported by chase cars or remote monitoring, and Tesla has not disclosed how many vehicles are involved. That being said, Elon Musk stated a week ago that Tesla would be removing its Safety Monitors from its vehicles “within the next three weeks.” Based on the driverless vehicles’ sightings so far, it appears that Musk’s estimate may be right on the mark, at least for now.
News
Production-ready Tesla Cybercab hits showroom floor in San Jose
Tesla has implemented subtle but significant updates to both the Cybercab’s exterior and interior elements.
Tesla has showcased what appears to be a near-production-ready Cybercab at its Santana Row showroom in San Jose, California, giving visitors the closest look yet at the autonomous two-seater’s refined design.
Based on photos of the near-production-ready vehicle, the electric vehicle maker has implemented subtle but significant updates to both the Cybercab’s exterior and interior elements, making the vehicle look more polished and seemingly more comfortable than its prototypes from last year.
Exterior and interior refinements
The updated Cybercab, whose photos were initially shared by Tesla advocate Nic Cruz Patane, now features a new frameless window design, an extended bottom splitter on the front bumper, and a slightly updated rear hatch. It also includes a production-spec front lightbar with integrated headlights, new wheel covers, and a license plate bracket.
Notably, the vehicle now has two windshield wipers instead of the prototype’s single unit, along with powered door struts, seemingly for smoother opening of its butterfly doors. Inside, the Cybercab now sports what appears to be a redesigned dash and door panels, updated carpet material, and slightly refined seat cushions with new center cupholders. Its legroom seems to have gotten slightly larger as well.
Cybercab sightings
Sightings of the updated Cybercab have been abundant in recent months. At the end of October, the Tesla AI team teased some of the autonomous two-seater’s updates after it showed a photo of the vehicle being driven through an In-N-Out drive-through by employees in Halloween costumes. The photos of the Cybercab were fun, but they were significant, with longtime Tesla watchers noting that the company has a tradition of driving its prototypes through the fast food chain’s drive-throughs.
Even at the time, Tesla enthusiasts noticed that the Cybercab had received some design changes, such as segmented DRLs and headlamps, actual turn signals, and a splitter that’s a lot sharper. Larger door openings, which now seem to have been teasing the vehicle’s updated cabin, were also observed at the time.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst realizes one big thing about the stock: deliveries are losing importance
Tesla analyst Dan Levy of Barclays realized one big thing about the stock moving into 2026: vehicle deliveries are losing importance.
As a new era of Tesla seems to be on the horizon, the concern about vehicle deliveries and annual growth seems to be fading, at least according to many investors.
Even CEO Elon Musk has implied at times that the automotive side, as a whole, will only make up a small percentage of Tesla’s total valuation, as Optimus and AI begin to shine with importance.
He said in April:
“The future of the company is fundamentally based on large-scale autonomous cars and large-scale and large volume, vast numbers of autonomous humanoid robots.”
Almost all of Tesla’s value long-term will be from AI & robots, both vehicle & humanoid
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 11, 2023
Levy wrote in a note to investors that Tesla’s Q4 delivery figures “likely won’t matter for the stock.” Barclays said in the note that it expects deliveries to be “soft” for the quarter.
In years past, Tesla analysts, investors, and fans were focused on automotive growth.
Cars were truly the biggest thing the stock had to offer: Tesla was a growing automotive company with a lot of prowess in AI and software, but deliveries held the most impact, along with vehicle pricing. These types of things had huge impacts on the stock years ago.
In fact, several large swings occurred because of Tesla either beating or missing delivery estimates:
- January 3, 2022: +13.53%, record deliveries at the time
- January 3, 2023: -12.24%, missed deliveries
- July 2, 2024: +10.20%, beat delivery expectations
- October 3, 2022: -8.61%, sharp miss due to Shanghai factory shutdown
- July 2, 2020: +7.95%, topped low COVID-era expectations with sizeable beat on deliveries
It has become more apparent over the past few quarters that delivery estimates have significantly less focus from investors, who are instead looking for progress in AI, Optimus, Cybercab, and other projects.
These things are the future of the company, and although Tesla will always sell cars, the stock is more impacted by the software the vehicle is running, and not necessarily the vehicle itself.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
Production-ready Tesla Cybercab hits showroom floor in San Jose
