News
Elon Musk pegs SpaceX BFR program at $5B as NASA’s rocket booster nears $5B in cost overruns
At the same time as NASA’s overrun-stricken Space Launch System (SLS) continues to limp towards its continuously delayed launch debut, now tentatively expected no earlier than (NET) 2021, SpaceX is forging ahead with the development of an equivalently capable launch vehicle known as BFR, comprised of a spaceship (BFS) and booster (BFB).
During a September 17th update to the next-gen SpaceX rocket’s steady progress, CEO Elon Musk offered a rough cost estimate of $5B to complete its development – no less than $2B and no more than $10B. According to NASA’s Office of the Inspector General (OIG), Boeing – primary contractor for NASA’s SLS “Core Stage” or booster – is all but guaranteed to burn through a minimum of $8.9B between 2012 and the rocket’s tentative 2021 launch debut.
NASA is finally (officially) acknowledging that EM-1, the maiden launch of SLS, will slip until at least June 2020. Sources tell us to expect another slip to 2021, official or not.https://t.co/CYf9SqbhBY
— Eric Berger (@SciGuySpace) October 3, 2018
Originally contracted in 2014 to complete SLS booster development, production, and preparation by 2018 at a cost of $4.2B, Boeing has overrun its budget by a bit less than 50% (up to $6.2B) and overshot its scheduled launch debut by more than 2.5 years. Per an October 10th audit of the SLS booster program, NASA OIG has reasonably concluded that Boeing will pass that $6.2B expenditure estimate – meant to last until 2021 – in December 2018, meaning that at least an additional $2.7B will be required from NASA between now and 2021 if SLS is to have a chance at launching that year.
In other words, compared to Boeing’s first serious 2014 contract for the SLS Core Stages – $4.2B to complete Core Stages 1 and 2 and launch EM-1 in Nov. 2017 – the company will ultimately end up 215% over-budget ($4.2B to $8.9B) and ~40 months behind schedule (42 months to 80+ months from contract award to completion). Meanwhile, as OIG notes, NASA has continued to give Boeing impossibly effusive and glowing performance reviews to the tune of $323 million in “award fees”, with grades that would – under the contracting book NASA itself wrote – imply that Boeing SLS Core Stage work has been reliably under budget and ahead of schedule (it’s not).
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- SLS Block 1. (NASA)
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- An overview of SLS. (NASA)
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- Rockets are perhaps even more capital intensive. (SpaceX)
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- BFR 2018’s Spaceship, BFS. (SpaceX)
The “Satisfactory” Stuff
In reality, Boeing has not once been under budget or ahead of schedule during any of 6+ NASA performance reviews.
“Boeing should have received a “satisfactory” rating for [two review periods]; a “good” rating for [one review period]; and an “unsatisfactory” rating (no award fee) for [the 2017 review period].”
Instead, NASA has given Boeing three “Very Good” (nearly perfect) reviews and three “Excellent” (perfect) reviews over the last 6 years, ultimately dispersing $323M of pure-profit “award fees” thanks to those grades, while the OIG firmly disputes Boing’s worthiness for at least $65M of that sum.
It is pretty pathetic when the only response that @BoeingSpace can muster via @BKingDC at its #politicospace PR effort in response to a damning @NASA_SLS report by @NASAOIG is to dump on the Saturn V – a rocket that actually flew – and worked – half a century ago. https://t.co/daN91bzwpC
— NASA Watch (@NASAWatch) October 12, 2018
Boeing – recently brought to light as the likely source of a spate of egregiously counterfactual op-eds published with the intention of dirtying SpaceX’s image – also took it upon itself to sponsor what could be described as responses to NASA OIG’s scathing October 10th SLS audit. Hilariously, a Politico newsletter sponsored by Boeing managed to explicitly demean and belittle the Apollo-era Saturn V rocket as a “rickety metal bucket built with 1960s technology”, of which Boeing was the core stage’s prime contractor.
At the same time, that newsletter described SLS as a rocket that will be “light years ahead of thespacecraft [sic] that NASA astronauts used to get to the moon 50 years ago.” At present, the only clear way SLS is or will be “light years” ahead – as much a measure of time as it is of distance – of Saturn V is by continuing the rocket’s trend of endless delays. Perhaps NASA astronomers will soon be able to judge exactly how many “light years ahead” SLS is by measuring the program’s redshift or blueshift with one of several ground- and space-based telescopes.
Ultimately, this is a particularly effective bit of self-mockery in the context of rationale lately used by Boeing and NASA to shrug off the jaw-dropping Core Stage contract’s underperformance, missteps, schedule slips, and budget overruns, namely that building big, complex rockets is hard. NASA and Boeing, neither of which have any meaningful experience building big, complex rockets – aside from Saturn IB, Saturn V, and the Space Shuttle – thus should be given a break for reliably and dramatically underestimating the difficulties of doing so in the 21st century.
One of the most breathtaking things about the new SLS report is the response by NASA's Gerstenmaier. Essentially, he says, this a is a big, complex rocket. And it's hard to build this stuff.https://t.co/ou8SFhji6a
— Eric Berger (@SciGuySpace) October 10, 2018
Simultaneously, Boeing and NASA still continue to act as if they are the foremost global experts of building extremely large rockets and continue to throw pile upon pile of taxpayer billions at overpromised attempts to prove as much. It’s no more than a masochistic dream to imagine what could have been or might be if NASA instead redirected those billions towards US aerospace companies with track records of success through fixed-cost contracts or straight-up private funding (SpaceX and Blue Origin, primarily), but it’s often hard not to at least think about the possibilities.
For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!
Elon Musk
Elon Musk’s xAI, creator of Grok and Grokipedia, celebrates its third birthday
xAI Memphis highlighted several of its milestones over the years in its celebratory post.
Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup xAI has marked its third anniversary. The update was shared in a post from the xAI Memphis account on social media platform X.
xAI Memphis highlighted several of its milestones over the years in its celebratory post.
As per xAI, it has built three massive data centers in the city, launched a coherent cluster of 330,000 GBs, created over 3,000 jobs, and paid over $30 million in taxes to local communities.
xAI’s Memphis operation has become a key part of the company’s infrastructure as the company works to train and deploy its Grok artificial intelligence models. Elon Musk has been quite optimistic about Grok’s potential, noting in the past that the large language model might have a shot at achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI).
xAI’s Memphis’ crown jewel is its Colossus supercomputer cluster. The project was announced in 2024 and has since become the home of one of the world’s largest AI compute facilities. The first phase of Colossus reached its initial 100,000 GPU operational milestone in just 122 days, or just about four months.
Industry figures such as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang have praised the facility, noting that projects of similar scale typically take two to four years to complete.
xAI has cited Memphis’ central location, skilled workforce, and industrial infrastructure as key reasons for selecting the city as the home of its AI training operations. The company has also emphasized plans to expand the site further as it scales compute capacity for Grok and future AI models.
News
Tesla Sweden’s Megapack Supercharger near Arlanda continues to aggravate IF Metall union
The charging site, located in Arlandastad outside Stockholm, appears to be operating despite ongoing union blockade measures tied to Tesla’s labor dispute in the country.
Tesla Sweden’s Megapack-powered Supercharger station near Arlanda Airport has continued to aggravate Swedish labor union IF Metall. The charging site, located in Arlandastad outside Stockholm, appears to be operating despite ongoing union blockade measures tied to Tesla’s labor dispute in the country.
Comments about the site were shared by IF Metall representatives in remarks to Swedish publication CarUp.
The Arlandastad location includes eight Tesla Superchargers powered by a Megapack battery system. Unlike traditional charging stations that rely on direct grid connections, the site uses a large battery installation to store electricity and power the chargers.
According to the Swedish publication, the setup allowed the station to come online despite sympathy measures from Sweden’s electricians’ union, which has attempted to prevent companies from cooperating with Tesla as part of the broader labor conflict.
IF Metall press manager Jesper Pettersson indicated that the union was not aware that the Superchargers had already been connected and activated.
“We do not know the details around this. But it is further proof of how Tesla systematically finds loopholes to circumvent the sympathy measures through active strikebreaking. Every time this happens it gives us reason to sharpen our conflict measures,” Pettersson said.
Union representatives also noted that the Megapack appears to be charged using electrical cables routed through nearby terrain, though the exact power source remains under review.
The Megapack-powered site has then prompted questions from Swedish labor unions about how electricity is being supplied to the system.
IF Metall has submitted a report to Sweden’s Energy Market Inspectorate asking the regulator to review whether the electricity supply arrangement complies with national regulations. The Megapack is reportedly charged using electricity from a local company, though the provider has not been publicly identified.
Peter Lydell, an ombudsman at IF Metall, previously stated that Swedish law limits electricity trading to companies with proper authorization.
“The legislation states that only companies that engage in electricity trading may supply electricity to other parties. You may not supply electricity without a permit, then you are engaging in illegal electricity trading. That is why we have reported this…
“This is about a company that helps Tesla circumvent the conflict measures that exist. It is clear that it is troublesome and it can also have consequences,” Lydell said.
IF Metall and Tesla Sweden’s conflict has been going on for over two years now.
Elon Musk
Starbase after dark: Musk’s latest photo captures a Spaceport on the brink of history
SpaceX’s Starbase city in Boca Chica, Texas is rapidly transforming the southern tip of the Lone Star State into one of the most ambitious launch complexes in history.
A striking nighttime photograph of SpaceX’s Starbase facility in Boca Chica, Texas, shared recently by Elon Musk on X, offers a dramatic glimpse of an operation that is rapidly transforming the southern tip of the Lone Star State into one of the most ambitious launch complexes in history.
The most immediately visible change in the photo is the presence of two fully erected Starship launch towers dominating the coastal skyline. The second orbital launch pad, known as Pad B, now features its fully erected tower, OLIT-3, which stands approximately 474 feet tall and incorporates an integrated water-cooled flame trench designed to minimize damage and reduce turnaround time between launches. The dual-tower silhouette against the night sky signals a decisive shift from experimental testing facility to high-cadence launch operations.
Grok Image concept of Elon Musk’s latest Starbase photo via X
Back at Starbase, Pad 2 is approaching hardware completion, with upgraded chopstick arms, a new chilldown vent system, and all 20 hold-down arms now fitted with protective doors to shield them from the intense exhaust of up to 33 Raptor 3 engines, according to a deeper dive by NASASpaceFlight.
SpaceX has also received approval to nearly double the footprint of the Starbase launch site, with groundwork already underway to add LNG liquefaction plants, expanded propellant storage, and additional ground support infrastructure.
The photo also carries a milestone civic dimension. Starbase officially became a Texas city in May 2025 after a community vote, with SpaceX employees elected as mayor and commissioners of the newly incorporated municipality. That legal status streamlines launch approvals and gives SpaceX direct control over local infrastructure decisions.
The FAA has approved an increase in launches from Starbase in Texas from five to twenty-five per year, clearing the runway for the kind of flight frequency needed to fulfill Starship’s ultimate mission of ferrying cargo and crew to the Moon, servicing the Department of Defense, deploying next-generation Starlink satellites, and eventually establishing Elon Musk’s long sought after goal of a self-sustaining human presence on Mars.
Seen from above in the dark, Starbase looks less like a test site and more like a spaceport.
Elon Musk’s xAI, creator of Grok and Grokipedia, celebrates its third birthday
Tesla Sweden’s Megapack Supercharger near Arlanda continues to aggravate IF Metall union
