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Elon Musk pegs SpaceX BFR program at $5B as NASA’s rocket booster nears $5B in cost overruns
At the same time as NASA’s overrun-stricken Space Launch System (SLS) continues to limp towards its continuously delayed launch debut, now tentatively expected no earlier than (NET) 2021, SpaceX is forging ahead with the development of an equivalently capable launch vehicle known as BFR, comprised of a spaceship (BFS) and booster (BFB).
During a September 17th update to the next-gen SpaceX rocket’s steady progress, CEO Elon Musk offered a rough cost estimate of $5B to complete its development – no less than $2B and no more than $10B. According to NASA’s Office of the Inspector General (OIG), Boeing – primary contractor for NASA’s SLS “Core Stage” or booster – is all but guaranteed to burn through a minimum of $8.9B between 2012 and the rocket’s tentative 2021 launch debut.
NASA is finally (officially) acknowledging that EM-1, the maiden launch of SLS, will slip until at least June 2020. Sources tell us to expect another slip to 2021, official or not.https://t.co/CYf9SqbhBY
— Eric Berger (@SciGuySpace) October 3, 2018
Originally contracted in 2014 to complete SLS booster development, production, and preparation by 2018 at a cost of $4.2B, Boeing has overrun its budget by a bit less than 50% (up to $6.2B) and overshot its scheduled launch debut by more than 2.5 years. Per an October 10th audit of the SLS booster program, NASA OIG has reasonably concluded that Boeing will pass that $6.2B expenditure estimate – meant to last until 2021 – in December 2018, meaning that at least an additional $2.7B will be required from NASA between now and 2021 if SLS is to have a chance at launching that year.
In other words, compared to Boeing’s first serious 2014 contract for the SLS Core Stages – $4.2B to complete Core Stages 1 and 2 and launch EM-1 in Nov. 2017 – the company will ultimately end up 215% over-budget ($4.2B to $8.9B) and ~40 months behind schedule (42 months to 80+ months from contract award to completion). Meanwhile, as OIG notes, NASA has continued to give Boeing impossibly effusive and glowing performance reviews to the tune of $323 million in “award fees”, with grades that would – under the contracting book NASA itself wrote – imply that Boeing SLS Core Stage work has been reliably under budget and ahead of schedule (it’s not).
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- SLS Block 1. (NASA)
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- An overview of SLS. (NASA)
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- Rockets are perhaps even more capital intensive. (SpaceX)
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- BFR 2018’s Spaceship, BFS. (SpaceX)
The “Satisfactory” Stuff
In reality, Boeing has not once been under budget or ahead of schedule during any of 6+ NASA performance reviews.
“Boeing should have received a “satisfactory” rating for [two review periods]; a “good” rating for [one review period]; and an “unsatisfactory” rating (no award fee) for [the 2017 review period].”
Instead, NASA has given Boeing three “Very Good” (nearly perfect) reviews and three “Excellent” (perfect) reviews over the last 6 years, ultimately dispersing $323M of pure-profit “award fees” thanks to those grades, while the OIG firmly disputes Boing’s worthiness for at least $65M of that sum.
It is pretty pathetic when the only response that @BoeingSpace can muster via @BKingDC at its #politicospace PR effort in response to a damning @NASA_SLS report by @NASAOIG is to dump on the Saturn V – a rocket that actually flew – and worked – half a century ago. https://t.co/daN91bzwpC
— NASA Watch (@NASAWatch) October 12, 2018
Boeing – recently brought to light as the likely source of a spate of egregiously counterfactual op-eds published with the intention of dirtying SpaceX’s image – also took it upon itself to sponsor what could be described as responses to NASA OIG’s scathing October 10th SLS audit. Hilariously, a Politico newsletter sponsored by Boeing managed to explicitly demean and belittle the Apollo-era Saturn V rocket as a “rickety metal bucket built with 1960s technology”, of which Boeing was the core stage’s prime contractor.
At the same time, that newsletter described SLS as a rocket that will be “light years ahead of thespacecraft [sic] that NASA astronauts used to get to the moon 50 years ago.” At present, the only clear way SLS is or will be “light years” ahead – as much a measure of time as it is of distance – of Saturn V is by continuing the rocket’s trend of endless delays. Perhaps NASA astronomers will soon be able to judge exactly how many “light years ahead” SLS is by measuring the program’s redshift or blueshift with one of several ground- and space-based telescopes.
Ultimately, this is a particularly effective bit of self-mockery in the context of rationale lately used by Boeing and NASA to shrug off the jaw-dropping Core Stage contract’s underperformance, missteps, schedule slips, and budget overruns, namely that building big, complex rockets is hard. NASA and Boeing, neither of which have any meaningful experience building big, complex rockets – aside from Saturn IB, Saturn V, and the Space Shuttle – thus should be given a break for reliably and dramatically underestimating the difficulties of doing so in the 21st century.
One of the most breathtaking things about the new SLS report is the response by NASA's Gerstenmaier. Essentially, he says, this a is a big, complex rocket. And it's hard to build this stuff.https://t.co/ou8SFhji6a
— Eric Berger (@SciGuySpace) October 10, 2018
Simultaneously, Boeing and NASA still continue to act as if they are the foremost global experts of building extremely large rockets and continue to throw pile upon pile of taxpayer billions at overpromised attempts to prove as much. It’s no more than a masochistic dream to imagine what could have been or might be if NASA instead redirected those billions towards US aerospace companies with track records of success through fixed-cost contracts or straight-up private funding (SpaceX and Blue Origin, primarily), but it’s often hard not to at least think about the possibilities.
For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!
Elon Musk
Starlink terminals smuggled into Iran amid protest crackdown: report
Roughly 6,000 units were delivered following January’s unrest.
The United States quietly moved thousands of Starlink terminals into Iran after authorities imposed internet shutdowns as part of its crackdown on protests, as per information shared by U.S. officials to The Wall Street Journal.
Roughly 6,000 units were delivered following January’s unrest, marking the first known instance of Washington directly supplying the satellite systems inside the country.
Iran’s government significantly restricted online access as demonstrations spread across the country earlier this year. In response, the U.S. purchased nearly 7,000 Starlink terminals in recent months, with most acquisitions occurring in January. Officials stated that funding was reallocated from other internet access initiatives to support the satellite deployment.
President Donald Trump was aware of the effort, though it remains unclear whether he personally authorized it. The White House has not issued a comment about the matter publicly.
Possession of a Starlink terminal is illegal under Iranian law and can result in significant prison time. Despite this, the WSJ estimated that tens of thousands of residents still rely on the satellite service to bypass state controls. Authorities have reportedly conducted inspections of private homes and rooftops to locate unauthorized equipment.
Earlier this year, Trump and Elon Musk discussed maintaining Starlink access for Iranians during the unrest. Tehran has repeatedly accused Washington of encouraging dissent, though U.S. officials have mostly denied the allegations.
The decision to prioritize Starlink sparked internal debate within U.S. agencies. Some officials argued that shifting resources away from Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) could weaken broader internet access efforts. VPNs had previously played a major role in keeping Iranians connected during earlier protest waves, though VPNs are not effective when the actual internet gets cut.
According to State Department figures, about 30 million Iranians used U.S.-funded VPN services during demonstrations in 2022. During a near-total blackout in June 2025, roughly one-fifth of users were still able to access limited connectivity through VPN tools.
Critics have argued that satellite access without VPN protection may expose users to geolocation risks. After funds were redirected to acquire Starlink equipment, support reportedly lapsed for two of five VPN providers operating in Iran.
A State Department official has stated that the U.S. continues to back multiple technologies, including VPNs alongside Starlink, to sustain people’s internet access amidst the government’s shutdowns.
News
Tesla ramps up Sweden price war with cheaper Model Y offer
The incentive effectively acts as a manufacturer-funded EV bonus and makes the entry-level Model Y more affordable.
Tesla has introduced a new 40,000 SEK incentive in Sweden, lowering the price of its most affordable Model Y to a record low. The incentive effectively acts as a manufacturer-funded EV bonus and makes the entry-level Model Y more affordable.
As per a report from Swedish auto outlet Allt om Elbil, Tesla Sweden is offering a 40,000 SEK electric car bonus on the entry-level Tesla Model Y Rear-Wheel Drive variant. The incentive lowers the purchase price of the base all-electric crossover to 459,900–459,990 SEK, depending on listing.
The bonus applies to orders and deliveries completed by March 31, 2026. Tesla Sweden is also offering zero-interest financing as part of the campaign.
Last fall, Tesla launched a new base version of the Model Y starting at 499,990 SEK. The variant features a refreshed design and simplified equipment compared to the Premium and Performance variants. The new 40,000 SEK incentive now pushes the entry model well below the 460,000 SEK mark.
So far this year, the Model Y remains the most registered electric vehicle in Sweden and the third most registered new car overall. However, most registrations have been for higher Premium-spec versions. The new incentive could then be Tesla’s way to push sales of its most affordable Model Y variant in the country.
Tesla is also promoting private leasing options for the entry-level Model Y at 4,995 SEK per month. Swedish automotive observers have noted that leasing may remain the more cost-effective option compared to purchasing outright, even after the new discount.
The base Model Y Rear-Wheel Drive offers a WLTP range of 534 kilometers, a top speed of 201 km/h, and a 0–100 km/h time of 7.2 seconds. Tesla lists energy consumption at 13.1 kWh per 100 kilometers, making it the most efficient version of the vehicle in the lineup and potentially lowering overall ownership costs.
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Tesla China hires Autopilot Test Engineer amid continued FSD rollout preparations
The role is based in Lingang, the district that houses Gigafactory Shanghai.
Tesla is hiring an Autopilot Test Engineer in Shanghai, a move that signals continued groundwork for the validation of Full Self-Driving (FSD) in China. The role is based in Lingang, the district that houses Gigafactory Shanghai and has become a key testing zone for advanced autonomous features.
As observed by Tesla watchers, local authorities in Shanghai’s Nanhui New City within Lingang have previously authorized a fleet of Teslas to run advanced driving tests on public roads. This marked one of the first instances where foreign automakers were permitted to test autonomous driving systems under real traffic conditions in China.
Tesla’s hiring efforts come amid ongoing groundwork for a full FSD rollout in China. Earlier reporting noted that Tesla China has been actively preparing the regulatory and infrastructure foundation needed for full FSD deployment, even though the company has not yet announced a firm launch date for the feature in the market.
As per recent comments from Tesla China Vice President Grace Tao, the electric vehicle maker has been busy setting up the necessary facilities to support FSD’s full rollout in the country. In a comment to local media, Tao stated that FSD should demonstrate a level of performance that could surpass human drivers once it is fully rolled out.
“We have set up a local training center in China specifically to handle this adaptation,” Tao said. “Once officially released, it will demonstrate a level of performance that is no less than, and may even surpass, that of local drivers.”
Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been quite bullish about a potential FSD rollout in China. During the 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting, Musk emphasized that FSD had only received “partial approval” in China, though full authorization could potentially arrive around February or March 2026. This timeline was reiterated by the CEO during his appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Starlink terminals smuggled into Iran amid protest crackdown: report
Tesla ramps up Sweden price war with cheaper Model Y offer
