Connect with us

News

Elon Musk pegs SpaceX BFR program at $5B as NASA’s rocket booster nears $5B in cost overruns

Published

on

At the same time as NASA’s overrun-stricken Space Launch System (SLS) continues to limp towards its continuously delayed launch debut, now tentatively expected no earlier than (NET) 2021, SpaceX is forging ahead with the development of an equivalently capable launch vehicle known as BFR, comprised of a spaceship (BFS) and booster (BFB).

During a September 17th update to the next-gen SpaceX rocket’s steady progress, CEO Elon Musk offered a rough cost estimate of $5B to complete its development – no less than $2B and no more than $10B. According to NASA’s Office of the Inspector General (OIG), Boeing – primary contractor for NASA’s SLS “Core Stage” or booster – is all but guaranteed to burn through a minimum of $8.9B between 2012 and the rocket’s tentative 2021 launch debut.

Originally contracted in 2014 to complete SLS booster development, production, and preparation by 2018 at a cost of $4.2B, Boeing has overrun its budget by a bit less than 50% (up to $6.2B) and overshot its scheduled launch debut by more than 2.5 years. Per an October 10th audit of the SLS booster program, NASA OIG has reasonably concluded that Boeing will pass that $6.2B expenditure estimate – meant to last until 2021 – in December 2018, meaning that at least an additional $2.7B will be required from NASA between now and 2021 if SLS is to have a chance at launching that year.

Advertisement

In other words, compared to Boeing’s first serious 2014 contract for the SLS Core Stages – $4.2B to complete Core Stages 1 and 2 and launch EM-1 in Nov. 2017 – the company will ultimately end up 215% over-budget ($4.2B to $8.9B) and ~40 months behind schedule (42 months to 80+ months from contract award to completion). Meanwhile, as OIG notes, NASA has continued to give Boeing impossibly effusive and glowing performance reviews to the tune of $323 million in “award fees”, with grades that would – under the contracting book NASA itself wrote – imply that Boeing SLS Core Stage work has been reliably under budget and ahead of schedule (it’s not).

The “Satisfactory” Stuff

In reality, Boeing has not once been under budget or ahead of schedule during any of 6+ NASA performance reviews.

“Boeing should have received a “satisfactory” rating for [two review periods]; a “good” rating for [one review period]; and an “unsatisfactory” rating (no award fee) for [the 2017 review period].”

Instead, NASA has given Boeing three “Very Good” (nearly perfect) reviews and three “Excellent” (perfect) reviews over the last 6 years, ultimately dispersing $323M of pure-profit “award fees” thanks to those grades, while the OIG firmly disputes Boing’s worthiness for at least $65M of that sum.

Boeing – recently brought to light as the likely source of a spate of egregiously counterfactual op-eds published with the intention of dirtying SpaceX’s image – also took it upon itself to sponsor what could be described as responses to NASA OIG’s scathing October 10th SLS audit. Hilariously, a Politico newsletter sponsored by Boeing managed to explicitly demean and belittle the Apollo-era Saturn V rocket as a “rickety metal bucket built with 1960s technology”, of which Boeing was the core stage’s prime contractor.

At the same time, that newsletter described SLS as a rocket that will be “light years ahead of thespacecraft [sic] that NASA astronauts used to get to the moon 50 years ago.” At present, the only clear way SLS is or will be “light years” ahead – as much a measure of time as it is of distance – of Saturn V is by continuing the rocket’s trend of endless delays. Perhaps NASA astronomers will soon be able to judge exactly how many “light years ahead” SLS is by measuring the program’s redshift or blueshift with one of several ground- and space-based telescopes.

Ultimately, this is a particularly effective bit of self-mockery in the context of rationale lately used by Boeing and NASA to shrug off the jaw-dropping Core Stage contract’s underperformance, missteps, schedule slips, and budget overruns, namely that building big, complex rockets is hard. NASA and Boeing, neither of which have any meaningful experience building big, complex rockets – aside from Saturn IB, Saturn V, and the Space Shuttle – thus should be given a break for reliably and dramatically underestimating the difficulties of doing so in the 21st century.

Simultaneously, Boeing and NASA still continue to act as if they are the foremost global experts of building extremely large rockets and continue to throw pile upon pile of taxpayer billions at overpromised attempts to prove as much. It’s no more than a masochistic dream to imagine what could have been or might be if NASA instead redirected those billions towards US aerospace companies with track records of success through fixed-cost contracts or straight-up private funding (SpaceX and Blue Origin, primarily), but it’s often hard not to at least think about the possibilities.


For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

Advertisement
Comments

News

Tesla just had its best wholesale month this year in China

Tesla China’s wholesale figures include both vehicles that are sold domestically and exported abroad.

Published

on

Credit: Tesla China

Tesla China just had its best wholesale month this 2025 so far. In August, the electric vehicle maker sold 83,192 vehicles wholesale, a 22.55% increase compared to July 2025’s 67,886 units.

Tesla China’s wholesale figures are still down year-over-year, but the company’s momentum seems notable, especially with the arrival of the Model Y L.

August 2025 figures

As noted in a CNEV Post report, August 2025’s 83,192 wholesale figures are 4.04% less than the 86,697 units that were sold in the same period last year. It is, however, a 22.55% improvement from the previous month. From January to August, Tesla China sold 515,552 units wholesale, a 12.24% year-over-year decrease. 

It should be noted that Tesla China’s wholesale figures include both vehicles that are sold domestically and exported abroad. With this in mind, August’s results bode well for Tesla China, as it suggests that Gigafactory Shanghai is now hitting its pace with both its domestic deliveries and its exports. Giga Shanghai serves as Tesla’s primary vehicle export hub.

Model Y L factor

Tesla had a challenging first quarter this year, thanks in part to the changeover to the Model Y across the Fremont factory, Giga Texas, Giga Shanghai, and Giga Berlin-Brandenburg. This changeover resulted in low sales in the first quarter. Political controversies surrounding Elon Musk and violence against Tesla stores and vehicles in the first and second quarters in the United States and Europe did not help much either.

Advertisement

This Q3, however, Tesla seems to be hitting its stride, especially in China. The launch of the new Model Y L has allowed Tesla to compete in the six-seat, large SUV segment, a market that was previously closed to the standard Model Y. Reports have suggested that Tesla China has been seeing a lot of demand for the Model Y L, which should help the company achieve higher sales this quarter and the remaining months of the year.

Continue Reading

News

Tesla Model Y L sales have been incredible since launch: report

Tesla China’s sales this third quarter could see a notable improvement.

Published

on

Credit: Tesla China

A recent report from China has suggested that the Tesla Model Y L has been seeing an impressive volume of orders since it was launched last month.

Amidst the Model Y L’s rollout, Tesla China’s sales this third quarter could see a notable improvement.

Model Y L orders

Citing information from a salesperson from a Tesla store in Beijing, media outlet Cailianshe stated that the Model Y L has been resonating well with consumers, particularly bigger families that need more space for their children. The salesperson stated that since the vehicle’s unveiling in China, the Model Y L has garnered 120,000 orders, and almost 10,000 new orders daily.

“(The Model Y L) is selling very well. Since its launch, 120,000 orders have been received, with nearly 10,000 orders placed every day. The first batch of customers began receiving deliveries in the past two days,” the Tesla representative noted.

More momentum

China is the world’s largest electric vehicle market, and it is also the most unforgiving and competitive. While the standard Model Y consistently performed well in the premium crossover SUV segment, it was high time for Tesla China to offer a larger vehicle for domestic consumers. There are quite a lot of customers, after all, who need more space than what the standard Model Y could offer.

Advertisement

The Model Y L’s spacious interior seems to be well appreciated by consumers, with the Tesla Beijing salesperson noting that the vehicle’s excellent rear seats have been a notable selling point. “Although the Model YL is a bit more expensive, it has more space and a more flexible rear seat, making it perfect for families with children,” the representative added.

Continue Reading

News

Tesla adjusts Robotaxi safety monitor strategy in Austin with new service area

The positioning of the driver, as well as the driver’s hands being closer to the steering wheel, is more similar to what Tesla is doing in the Bay Area Robotaxi program than it is to what it has done in Austin.

Published

on

Credit: @AdanGuajardo/X

Tesla has adjusted its Robotaxi safety monitor strategy in Austin after it expanded its service area in the city last week for the third time.

Tesla has been operating its Robotaxi platform in Austin since June 22. The vehicles have been operated without a driver, but Tesla has placed safety monitors in the passenger’s seat as a precaution.

The safety monitors are responsible for performing any necessary interventions and maintaining a safe and comfortable cabin for riders as they experience Tesla’s first venture into the driverless ride-sharing space.

Last week, Tesla expanded its service area in Austin for the third time, expanding it from about 90 square miles to 170 square miles. The expansion included new territory, including the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, Tesla’s Gigafactory Texas, and several freeways.

Tesla Robotaxi geofence expansion enters Plaid Mode and includes a surprise

The freeway is an area that is uncharted territory for the Tesla Robotaxi program, and this fact alone encouraged Tesla to switch up its safety monitor positioning for the time being.

For now, they will be riding in the driver’s seat when routes require freeway travel:

The positioning of the driver, as well as the driver’s hands being closer to the steering wheel, is more similar to what Tesla is doing in the Bay Area Robotaxi program than it is to what it has done in Austin.

This is sure to draw criticism from skeptics, but it is simply a step to keep things controlled and safe while the first Robotaxi drives take passengers on the highway with this version of the Full Self-Driving software.

This FSD version differs from the one that customers have in their own vehicles, but CEO Elon Musk has indicated something big is coming soon. FSD v14 is coming to vehicles in the near future, and Musk has said its performance is pretty incredible.

Tesla’s Elon Musk shares optimistic teaser about FSD V14: “Feels sentient”

Continue Reading

Trending