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Elon Musk pegs SpaceX BFR program at $5B as NASA’s rocket booster nears $5B in cost overruns

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7 years ago

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At the same time as NASA’s overrun-stricken Space Launch System (SLS) continues to limp towards its continuously delayed launch debut, now tentatively expected no earlier than (NET) 2021, SpaceX is forging ahead with the development of an equivalently capable launch vehicle known as BFR, comprised of a spaceship (BFS) and booster (BFB).

During a September 17th update to the next-gen SpaceX rocket’s steady progress, CEO Elon Musk offered a rough cost estimate of $5B to complete its development – no less than $2B and no more than $10B. According to NASA’s Office of the Inspector General (OIG), Boeing – primary contractor for NASA’s SLS “Core Stage” or booster – is all but guaranteed to burn through a minimum of $8.9B between 2012 and the rocket’s tentative 2021 launch debut.

Originally contracted in 2014 to complete SLS booster development, production, and preparation by 2018 at a cost of $4.2B, Boeing has overrun its budget by a bit less than 50% (up to $6.2B) and overshot its scheduled launch debut by more than 2.5 years. Per an October 10th audit of the SLS booster program, NASA OIG has reasonably concluded that Boeing will pass that $6.2B expenditure estimate – meant to last until 2021 – in December 2018, meaning that at least an additional $2.7B will be required from NASA between now and 2021 if SLS is to have a chance at launching that year.

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In other words, compared to Boeing’s first serious 2014 contract for the SLS Core Stages – $4.2B to complete Core Stages 1 and 2 and launch EM-1 in Nov. 2017 – the company will ultimately end up 215% over-budget ($4.2B to $8.9B) and ~40 months behind schedule (42 months to 80+ months from contract award to completion). Meanwhile, as OIG notes, NASA has continued to give Boeing impossibly effusive and glowing performance reviews to the tune of $323 million in “award fees”, with grades that would – under the contracting book NASA itself wrote – imply that Boeing SLS Core Stage work has been reliably under budget and ahead of schedule (it’s not).

The “Satisfactory” Stuff

In reality, Boeing has not once been under budget or ahead of schedule during any of 6+ NASA performance reviews.

“Boeing should have received a “satisfactory” rating for [two review periods]; a “good” rating for [one review period]; and an “unsatisfactory” rating (no award fee) for [the 2017 review period].”

Instead, NASA has given Boeing three “Very Good” (nearly perfect) reviews and three “Excellent” (perfect) reviews over the last 6 years, ultimately dispersing $323M of pure-profit “award fees” thanks to those grades, while the OIG firmly disputes Boing’s worthiness for at least $65M of that sum.

Boeing – recently brought to light as the likely source of a spate of egregiously counterfactual op-eds published with the intention of dirtying SpaceX’s image – also took it upon itself to sponsor what could be described as responses to NASA OIG’s scathing October 10th SLS audit. Hilariously, a Politico newsletter sponsored by Boeing managed to explicitly demean and belittle the Apollo-era Saturn V rocket as a “rickety metal bucket built with 1960s technology”, of which Boeing was the core stage’s prime contractor.

At the same time, that newsletter described SLS as a rocket that will be “light years ahead of thespacecraft [sic] that NASA astronauts used to get to the moon 50 years ago.” At present, the only clear way SLS is or will be “light years” ahead – as much a measure of time as it is of distance – of Saturn V is by continuing the rocket’s trend of endless delays. Perhaps NASA astronomers will soon be able to judge exactly how many “light years ahead” SLS is by measuring the program’s redshift or blueshift with one of several ground- and space-based telescopes.

Ultimately, this is a particularly effective bit of self-mockery in the context of rationale lately used by Boeing and NASA to shrug off the jaw-dropping Core Stage contract’s underperformance, missteps, schedule slips, and budget overruns, namely that building big, complex rockets is hard. NASA and Boeing, neither of which have any meaningful experience building big, complex rockets – aside from Saturn IB, Saturn V, and the Space Shuttle – thus should be given a break for reliably and dramatically underestimating the difficulties of doing so in the 21st century.

Simultaneously, Boeing and NASA still continue to act as if they are the foremost global experts of building extremely large rockets and continue to throw pile upon pile of taxpayer billions at overpromised attempts to prove as much. It’s no more than a masochistic dream to imagine what could have been or might be if NASA instead redirected those billions towards US aerospace companies with track records of success through fixed-cost contracts or straight-up private funding (SpaceX and Blue Origin, primarily), but it’s often hard not to at least think about the possibilities.

For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla’s new Safety Report shows Autopilot is nine times safer than humans

Tesla released its Vehicle Safety Report for Q3 2025, and it showed that one crash was recorded every 6.36 million miles drive in which drivers were using Autopilot technology.

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1 hour ago

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October 22, 2025

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla’s new Safety Report for Q3 shows Autopilot technology contributed to accident frequency that was nine times lower than the national average.

Tesla released its Vehicle Safety Report for Q3 2025, and it showed that one crash was recorded every 6.36 million miles drive in which drivers were using Autopilot technology.

This is a stark contrast from the most recent data made available by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), which shows there is an automobile crash approximately every 702,000 miles.

The figure for Q3 2025 is slightly lower than the one that Tesla released in Q3 2024, which eclipsed 7 million miles between accidents for drivers using Autopilot technology.

Over the past seven quarters, Q1 has been Tesla’s strongest showing with the Vehicle Safety Report, with Q4 being the weakest. This is usually attributed to weather and driving conditions deteriorating toward the end of the year.

Q1 2024 was Tesla’s best performance so far, with one crash every 7.63 million miles.

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Tesla releases Vehicle Safety Report for Q1 2024

Autopilot and Full Self-Driving have been a major focus of Tesla over the past few years, and recent versions have improved on what has already proven to be an extremely safe way to travel, as long as it is used correctly.

Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) suite is a suitable way to allow the vehicle to navigate through any traffic setting and has been widely effective for day-to-day travel. With the data Tesla gets from its use across its vehicle fleet, it gets more refined and more accurate with every passing mile.

The company has teased the potential for completely unsupervised Full Self-Driving releases in the future, but Tesla has to solve autonomy before it can offer anything like that to the public.

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Tesla looks to enter a new continent, new job posting shows

Tesla is present on five of the seven continents: North America, Europe, Asia, South America, and Australia. In South America, Tesla currently operates only in one country, Chile, but is looking to expand to more areas.

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2 hours ago

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October 22, 2025

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla is looking to enter Africa for the first time, launching operations on a new continent and expanding its vehicle business operations.

Tesla is present on five of the seven continents: North America, Europe, Asia, South America, and Australia. In South America, Tesla currently operates only in one country, Chile, but is looking to expand to more areas.

First Tesla Model Y Performance Spotted In Africa

Although the company has not launched anything in Africa, a new job posting indicates that Tesla is looking to launch there for the first time.

According to a new posting on Tesla’s Careers website, it is looking for a full-time Country Sales & Delivery Leader in Casablanca, Morocco:

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“The Country Sales & Delivery Leader is responsible for driving the sales and delivery strategy and daily operations across the country. They will hire and develop the best people leaders and ensure the development of the highest performing teams. The Field Sales & Delivery Leader will take accountability for achieving ambitious sales and delivery targets and ensure the business performs on key success criteria, including but not excluded to market growth, customer satisfaction, operational excellence, and employee deployment and retention. In addition to driving business performance across sales & delivery, the Field Sales & Delivery is expected to act as an ambassador for Tesla in the market, as well as provide critical perspective and guidance on decisions impacting outcomes within their market to increase Tesla’s market share.”

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Back in July, Tesla officially registered its presence in the Moroccan market with the $2.75 million initial capital investment, according to The Habari Network.

The move marked a formal attempt at market entry for the EV maker, and it could signal even more opportunities through its other business operations, like energy.

Morocco is looked at as one of the countries in Africa that is most prone to transition toward EVs, as its government has focused on renewable energy and strategic investments in transportation.

It also has local production advantages, as Renault operates a plant in Morocco.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla investors want answers to these five questions during Q3 Earnings

These are the top five questions that have been asked and voted for by investors of the company, and what we think about them.

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4 hours ago

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October 22, 2025

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is preparing to report its earnings for the third quarter of 2025 this afternoon. Investors are looking for answers regarding the Robotaxi launch, energy division, potential future vehicle releases, Optimus, and demand stimulation without the tax credit.

Using the investor platform Say, Tesla allows investors to ask questions for the earnings call.

Tesla Q3 2025 earnings: What analysts expect

These are the top five questions that have been asked and voted for by investors of the company, and what we think about them:

  • What are the latest Robotaxi metrics (fleet size, cumulative miles, rides completed, intervention rates), and when will safety drivers be removed? What are the obstacles still preventing unsupervised FSD from being deployed to customer vehicles?
    • What we think: Tesla should release some metrics about Robotaxi operation, but it has been cryptic about fleet size and other statistics in the past. Additionally, CEO Elon Musk said Safety Drivers should be removed ‘by the end of the year,’ and we imagine this will be reiterated during the call. Regarding Unsupervised FSD, Tesla has stated that safety is its priority moving forward with the FSD rollout and Robotaxi as well.

 

  • What is demand/backlog for Megapack, Powerwall, Solar, or energy storage systems? With the current AI boom, is Tesla planning to supply power to other hyperscalers?
    • What we think: This is perhaps the only question of the five that Tesla will be totally forthcoming with, as it usually does not reveal vehicle plans or data on these earnings calls. However, it will be interesting to see if the company has any plans to supplement the increasing AI plans with its energy products. Energy falls under the radar with a lot of its achievements, so it really could be a major focus of this call if this question gets answered.

 

  • What are the plans for new car models? Will Tesla build compact car models leveraging the unboxed Cybercab platform? Will Tesla build a traditional SUV and pickup truck on the Cybertruck platform?
    • What we think: Tesla does not unveil or release plans about projects on earnings calls, so we doubt there will be much color here from executives. Considering Tesla has put so much weight on autonomy in the U.S., we’re not necessarily convinced it will plan to do much more than Cybercab, and SUV and pickup trucks will likely be built on a different platform as well, if they’re offered at all. Musk isn’t sure about bringing the Model Y L to the U.S. market due to the “advent of self-driving.”

 

  • What are the present challenges in bringing Optimus to market, considering app control software, engineering hardware, training general mobility models, training task-specific models, training voice models, implementing manufacturing, and establishing supply chains?
    • What we think: This will likely be where Tesla teases the capabilities of Optimus Gen 3, and comes up with some sort of rough date where it could show off the new design. Tesla has been using Optimus in its factories and other internal operations, so it’s likely we’ll hear some stories about that as well. Tesla is looking to refine the Optimus design so it is useful and capable in residential applications, and its hands are likely the biggest bottleneck as they are arguably the most crucial part of the product.

 

  • Can you talk about demand stimulation avenues beyond affordability? Given the state of global politics, can Tesla’s brand elevate above the divisiveness and return global perception back to our inspirational roots of ludicrous performance, environmental good, and superior safety?
    • What we think: Tesla is going to flex its new Standard offerings now, and the company has been transparent that Musk’s political involvement will wind down in a timely manner, according to the proxy it released when it revealed his pay package. 
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