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Elon Musk says SpaceX could soon face bankruptcy – here’s why that’s unlikely

(NASASpaceflight - bocachicagal)

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4 years ago

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In a new leaked email, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says that the company could go bankrupt if, by the end of 2022, it can’t achieve Starship and Starlink milestones that are by all practical appearances out of reach.

The news – first broken by SpaceExplored – comes about a week after CNBC reported that Musk was “shaking up” SpaceX’s leadership by effectively firing its vice president of propulsion due to “a lack of progress” in the development of Starship’s Raptor engine. Now, apparently after taking his first good look ‘under the hood’ in a while, Musk says that “the Raptor production crisis is much worse than it seemed a few weeks ago.” Worse, the CEO has implied that if it “can’t get enough reliable Raptors made [by the end of 2022]…[SpaceX will] face a genuine risk of bankruptcy.”

The email raises both skepticism and several major questions.

First and foremost, can there be any truth to Musk’s claim that SpaceX could go bankrupt because of an unspecified “Raptor production crisis [and disaster]?” Put simply, not really. Musk’s argument is simple enough. According to his estimations, the first-generation (V1) Starlink satellite internet constellation is “financially weak by itself,” which has led SpaceX to develop a much larger, more advanced second-generation (V2) Starlink satellite and constellation that the company’s existing “Falcon [rockets have] neither the [payload] volume nor mass to orbit” to launch. To efficiently launch the Starlink V2 constellation, then, Musk says SpaceX needs Starship to be operational.

Up to that point, nothing in Musk’s email implies that a “Raptor production crisis” could pose any serious harm to SpaceX beyond annoying delays. More than two years ago, Musk believed that Raptor V1.0 already cost less than $1M to produce. As of 2021, SpaceX (again per Musk) is completing an average of one Raptor engine every two days and currently has 35 functional engines installed on Starship and Super Heavy booster prototypes in Boca Chica, Texas. Already, at a rate of one engine every 48 hours, SpaceX’s Raptor production capabilities are theoretically strong enough to fully outfit a significant Starship fleet.

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Both stages of Starship are designed to be rapidly and fully reusable and absolutely need to be to efficiently and rapidly launch SpaceX’s Starlink V2 constellation. In theory, a production capacity of ~180 Raptors per year should allow SpaceX to outfit a fleet of three Super Heavies (99 engines) and 13 Starships (72 engines). Even if Super Heavy booster reuse is initially no faster than Falcon (~1 launch per month) and Starship reuse is no faster than Dragon (~3 launches per year), that fleet would be able to launch at least 36 times per years. Even if SpaceX’s former propulsion executives somehow pulled the wool over Musk’s eyes, tricking him into seeing engines that just weren’t there and hiding hundreds of millions of dollars in secret cost overruns from the company’s own accountants, an annual run rate of 100 Raptor engines at a cost of $5 million each would still be able to power a fleet of six reusable ships and two boosters capable of ~20 launches per year.

Starship S20 recently aced its first six-Raptor static fire. (SpaceX)
Super Heavy B4 currently has 29 functional Raptor engines installed. (SpaceX)

Musk says that SpaceX will only face the risk of bankruptcy if it “cannot achieve a Starship flight rate of at least once every two weeks next year” – equivalent to 26 launches annually. Again, being deceived for years would be a terrible look but nothing described above appears to have any chance of bankrupting SpaceX. However, the CEO also says that SpaceX “is spooling up” one or several factories to produce “several million” Starlink user terminals (dishes) per year in a process that “will consume massive capital [and assumes] that [Starlink V2 satellites] will be on orbit to handle the bandwidth demand.” He even goes as far as to say that those millions of terminals “will be useless otherwise.”

Once again, while what he describes is an undeniable hurdle for SpaceX, the company is making a choice to “consume massive capital” to “spool up” Starlink dish factories before the constellation capacity needed to take advantage of those dishes has been secured. SpaceX doesn’t need to make such a massive investment so quickly when it could instead split that money with Starship, ensure that Starship and Raptor and Starlink V2.0 satellites are ready or close to ready for routine launches, and then invest heavily in dish production.

SpaceX says Starship will launch the next generation of Starlink satellites

For example, just this month, SpaceX raised almost $350M from investors that have a practically bottomless appetite for SpaceX investments. Combined, by the end of the year, SpaceX will have likely raised more than $2.3B in 2021 alone. Valued at more than $100 billion, the company could – as a last resort – feasibly raise double-digit billions in one fell swoop with an IPO. Put simply, the only way SpaceX could ever go bankrupt in the near term would be by consciously letting itself drown in a sea of life preservers.

This is not to say that SpaceX doesn’t have numerous massive challenges ahead of it, nor is it to say that its fundraising potential is truly limitless. Investors could eventually become disillusioned. It’s entirely possible that it will take SpaceX years longer than Musk expects to begin routine Starlink V2.0 launches with Starship. Environmental approvals alone could easily preclude more than five orbital Starship launches in 2022 and potentially prevent regular (i.e. biweekly) launches well into 2023. But the fact of the matter is that unless Elon Musk is telegraphing signs that the rest of the company’s finances are a house of cards, the odds of SpaceX actually going bankrupt anytime soon are vanishingly small. In reality, he’s likely just attempting to (for better or worse) instill some amount of fear and panic in SpaceX employees to encourage them to work more hours and take fewer days off.

Update: Musk has tweeted a brief public comment confirming that he believes bankruptcy is actually an unlikely – but not impossible – outcome for SpaceX.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla is overhauling its Full Self-Driving subscription for easier access

The subscription model is more accessible to many owners, as it is reasonably priced and offers the option to take a month off from using it if they are interested in saving money.

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7 hours ago

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August 30, 2025

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla is overhauling its Full Self-Driving subscription and how it markets it to customers after several owners and fans of the company complained about the accessibility of the monthly access to its driver assistance suite.

Tesla Full Self-Driving is the automaker’s semi-autonomous driving suite, which is widely regarded as the most robust and capable on the market today. Owners can purchase the suite outright for $8,000, or they can subscribe to the program for $99 per month, an option it enabled a few years ago.

However, it is not super easy to subscribe to the subscription model, nor is it even recognized on the company’s Online Design Studio. Without some research or prior knowledge, a consumer might not even know they could pay monthly to experience Full Self-Driving.

That is set to change, according to Tesla’s AI/IT Infrastructure, Cybersecurity, IT Apps, and Vehicle Service head Raj Jegannathan, who said the company is planning to change that.

Instead of having customers only have the option to pay outright for the suite, Tesla is now planning to offer the subscription model in its Online Design Studio, making it easier to activate that option:

It will be the second major change Tesla makes to how it sells Full Self-Driving to customers, the first being videos of real-life operation of FSD in the Design Studio. Previously, the site only showed animations of Full Self-Driving’s capabilities.

Tesla added the videos of FSD handling some tricky situations, as well as general operation of the suite, to the Design Studio in recent weeks.

Tesla makes big change to encourage Full Self-Driving purchases

The subscription model is more accessible to many owners, as it is reasonably priced and offers the option to take a month off from using it if they are interested in saving money.

Many cannot justify paying for the suite outright, especially as it adds $8,000 to the cost of their car. After they experience its capabilities for themselves, they might.

Both moves appear to be an effort to increase the take rate of Full Self-Driving, particularly as autonomy takes center stage at Tesla.

With the rollout of Robotaxi and some teased capabilities of the upcoming v14 iteration of Full Self-Driving, Tesla is gearing up to continue advancing its self-driving technology.

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Tesla talks Semi ramp, Optimus, Robotaxi rollout, FSD with Wall Street firm

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21 hours ago

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August 29, 2025

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) recently talked about a variety of topics with Wall Street firm Piper Sandler, as the firm released a new note on Friday about their meeting with the company’s Investor Relations team.

According to the note from Piper Sandler, Tesla talked in detail about the Semi program, Optimus, and its potential valuation given its capabilities, the rollout of Robotaxi in Austin, and Full Self-Driving progress in the United States.

Tesla Semi Ramp

The Tesla Semi is set to enter mass production in 2026 at a dedicated factory near the company’s Gigafactory in Reno, Nevada.

The Semi has already been in pilot program testing, as Tesla has partnered with a few companies, like Frito-Lay and PepsiCo., to perform regional logistics. It has been met with excellent reviews from drivers, and it has helped give Tesla a good idea of what to expect when it makes its way to more companies in the coming years.

Piper Sandler said that it is evident Tesla is preparing for a “major ramp,” but it is keeping its expectations low:

“We’ve never expected much from this product, but we’d love to be proven wrong (Tesla is clearly prepping for a major ramp).”

Tesla Optimus and its value internally and externally

Optimus has been working in Tesla factories for some time, but its expectations as a product offering outside of the company internally have major implications.

Its role within Tesla factories, for now, is relatively low, but Optimus is still doing things to assist. By this time next year, Piper Sandler said Optimus should have bigger responsibilities:

“By this time in 2026, Optimus should be moving/staging parts within Tesla’s facilities.”

Outside of Tesla, Optimus could be a major beneficiary for companies as it could be a more affordable way to handle tedious tasks and manual labor. The firm believes that if Optimus can work 18-hour shifts, a cost of $100,000 per unit “would be justified.”

Tesla Robotaxi Expansion

The big focus of the firm with Robotaxi was Tesla’s expansion of the geofence in Austin this week. It was substantial, bringing the Robotaxi’s total service area to around 170 square miles, up from the roughly 90 square miles that rival Waymo is offering in the city.

Tesla Robotaxi geofence expansion enters Plaid Mode and includes a surprise

Tesla has doubled its geofence three times since its launch in late June, and it also revealed that its fleet of vehicles has expanded by 50 percent. It did not give a solid number of how many vehicles are operating in the fleet.

Tesla Full Self-Driving v14 launch

Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite is set to have a fresh version, v14, rolled out in either September or October, and there are some pretty high expectations for it.

CEO Elon Musk said:

“The FSD release in about 6 weeks will be a dramatic gain with a 10X higher parameter count and many other improvements. It’s going through training & testing now. Once we confirm real-world safety of FSD 14, which we think will be amazing, the car will nag you much less.”

There is also some expectation that v14 could be the public release of what Tesla is running in Austin for Robotaxi. The firm confirmed this in their note by stating it “should enable Tesla owners to use software that is on par with Robotaxis in Austin.”

The only real hold up would be regulator skepticism, but Tesla can alleviate this with strong data.

The firm maintained its ‘Overweight’ rating and the $400 price target it holds on the stock.

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Tesla starts Full Self-Driving rollout to owners in Australia

“To have this car drive me around Brisbane for an hour, we’re talking in the city, motorway, spaghetti bowl of on-ramps, it handled it so well. It was mind-blowing.”

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23 hours ago

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August 29, 2025

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has already started rolling out its Full Self-Driving suite to owners in Australia after officially launching the driver assistance suite in the country yesterday.

Earlier this week, Tesla seemed to be moving toward the launch of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) in Australia after numerous media members received early access to test its performance.

Tesla officially launched Full Self-Driving (Supervised) in Australia yesterday. The company told media members who got early access to the suite that the rollout would begin with Hardware 4-equipped Model 3 and Model Y vehicles.

Tesla launches Full Self-Driving in a new region

The release would be slow and gradual, with the process performed in stages.

The first stage of the rollout has already begun in Australia:

Tesla is reminding drivers in Australia who are using the suite for the first time that they must not become complacent while FSD is in operation. It is not fully autonomous and still requires the driver to remain attentive to road conditions and the vehicle’s surroundings.

Currently, the suite is only available to purchase outright, and it comes at a cost of $10,100. A subscription model is in the works, similar to the one in the United States, but Tesla has not yet announced its plans or pricing model for this.

Australia is the sixth country to receive Full Self-Driving (Supervised), or at least some version of it, as the United States, Canada, Mexico, China, and Puerto Rico all have access to the suite currently. In China, it is slightly different and is referred to as “City Autopilot” due to regulatory boundaries.

Early reviews of the suite have been very strong, as local media have also had the opportunity to try it, with one journalist saying, To have this car drive me around Brisbane for an hour, we’re talking in the city, motorway, spaghetti bowl of on-ramps, it handled it so well. It was mind-blowing.”

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