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Elon Musk says SpaceX could soon face bankruptcy – here’s why that’s unlikely

(NASASpaceflight - bocachicagal)

Published

4 years ago

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In a new leaked email, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says that the company could go bankrupt if, by the end of 2022, it can’t achieve Starship and Starlink milestones that are by all practical appearances out of reach.

The news – first broken by SpaceExplored – comes about a week after CNBC reported that Musk was “shaking up” SpaceX’s leadership by effectively firing its vice president of propulsion due to “a lack of progress” in the development of Starship’s Raptor engine. Now, apparently after taking his first good look ‘under the hood’ in a while, Musk says that “the Raptor production crisis is much worse than it seemed a few weeks ago.” Worse, the CEO has implied that if it “can’t get enough reliable Raptors made [by the end of 2022]…[SpaceX will] face a genuine risk of bankruptcy.”

The email raises both skepticism and several major questions.

First and foremost, can there be any truth to Musk’s claim that SpaceX could go bankrupt because of an unspecified “Raptor production crisis [and disaster]?” Put simply, not really. Musk’s argument is simple enough. According to his estimations, the first-generation (V1) Starlink satellite internet constellation is “financially weak by itself,” which has led SpaceX to develop a much larger, more advanced second-generation (V2) Starlink satellite and constellation that the company’s existing “Falcon [rockets have] neither the [payload] volume nor mass to orbit” to launch. To efficiently launch the Starlink V2 constellation, then, Musk says SpaceX needs Starship to be operational.

Up to that point, nothing in Musk’s email implies that a “Raptor production crisis” could pose any serious harm to SpaceX beyond annoying delays. More than two years ago, Musk believed that Raptor V1.0 already cost less than $1M to produce. As of 2021, SpaceX (again per Musk) is completing an average of one Raptor engine every two days and currently has 35 functional engines installed on Starship and Super Heavy booster prototypes in Boca Chica, Texas. Already, at a rate of one engine every 48 hours, SpaceX’s Raptor production capabilities are theoretically strong enough to fully outfit a significant Starship fleet.

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Both stages of Starship are designed to be rapidly and fully reusable and absolutely need to be to efficiently and rapidly launch SpaceX’s Starlink V2 constellation. In theory, a production capacity of ~180 Raptors per year should allow SpaceX to outfit a fleet of three Super Heavies (99 engines) and 13 Starships (72 engines). Even if Super Heavy booster reuse is initially no faster than Falcon (~1 launch per month) and Starship reuse is no faster than Dragon (~3 launches per year), that fleet would be able to launch at least 36 times per years. Even if SpaceX’s former propulsion executives somehow pulled the wool over Musk’s eyes, tricking him into seeing engines that just weren’t there and hiding hundreds of millions of dollars in secret cost overruns from the company’s own accountants, an annual run rate of 100 Raptor engines at a cost of $5 million each would still be able to power a fleet of six reusable ships and two boosters capable of ~20 launches per year.

Starship S20 recently aced its first six-Raptor static fire. (SpaceX)
Super Heavy B4 currently has 29 functional Raptor engines installed. (SpaceX)

Musk says that SpaceX will only face the risk of bankruptcy if it “cannot achieve a Starship flight rate of at least once every two weeks next year” – equivalent to 26 launches annually. Again, being deceived for years would be a terrible look but nothing described above appears to have any chance of bankrupting SpaceX. However, the CEO also says that SpaceX “is spooling up” one or several factories to produce “several million” Starlink user terminals (dishes) per year in a process that “will consume massive capital [and assumes] that [Starlink V2 satellites] will be on orbit to handle the bandwidth demand.” He even goes as far as to say that those millions of terminals “will be useless otherwise.”

Once again, while what he describes is an undeniable hurdle for SpaceX, the company is making a choice to “consume massive capital” to “spool up” Starlink dish factories before the constellation capacity needed to take advantage of those dishes has been secured. SpaceX doesn’t need to make such a massive investment so quickly when it could instead split that money with Starship, ensure that Starship and Raptor and Starlink V2.0 satellites are ready or close to ready for routine launches, and then invest heavily in dish production.

SpaceX says Starship will launch the next generation of Starlink satellites

For example, just this month, SpaceX raised almost $350M from investors that have a practically bottomless appetite for SpaceX investments. Combined, by the end of the year, SpaceX will have likely raised more than $2.3B in 2021 alone. Valued at more than $100 billion, the company could – as a last resort – feasibly raise double-digit billions in one fell swoop with an IPO. Put simply, the only way SpaceX could ever go bankrupt in the near term would be by consciously letting itself drown in a sea of life preservers.

This is not to say that SpaceX doesn’t have numerous massive challenges ahead of it, nor is it to say that its fundraising potential is truly limitless. Investors could eventually become disillusioned. It’s entirely possible that it will take SpaceX years longer than Musk expects to begin routine Starlink V2.0 launches with Starship. Environmental approvals alone could easily preclude more than five orbital Starship launches in 2022 and potentially prevent regular (i.e. biweekly) launches well into 2023. But the fact of the matter is that unless Elon Musk is telegraphing signs that the rest of the company’s finances are a house of cards, the odds of SpaceX actually going bankrupt anytime soon are vanishingly small. In reality, he’s likely just attempting to (for better or worse) instill some amount of fear and panic in SpaceX employees to encourage them to work more hours and take fewer days off.

Update: Musk has tweeted a brief public comment confirming that he believes bankruptcy is actually an unlikely – but not impossible – outcome for SpaceX.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla just made Service even easier and more convenient

The new feature is rolling out to iOS users now; we have not heard any confirmation from Android phone users whether they are receiving it too.

Published

2 hours ago

on

October 20, 2025

By

Credit: Tesla

Tesla just made servicing your vehicle even easier and more convenient than it already is.

All it did was add a new section to its smartphone app.

Tesla has officially launched a new Maintenance tab that estimates the repair date and cost, and uses vehicle data to determine if any part is in need of replacement.

It can be found by accessing the app, going to Service, then hitting Request Service, and then Maintenance.

The new feature is rolling out to iOS users now; we have not heard any confirmation from Android phone users whether they are receiving it too. Since it is not a vehicle capability, we do not believe Tesla will delay the release of the feature to Android phones.

Teslas are already well known for having extremely low maintenance needs, and semi-annual check ups usually only require a tire rotation and some additional windshield washer fluid. There is not a need for things like oil changes or other things that are routinely needed on combustion engine cars due to the lack of parts.

Additionally, the small addition to the company’s smartphone app will help facilitate needs for Service, and could help relieve some congestion, while also streamlining the repair process for technicians.

Tesla to make app change for easier communication following Service

One of the biggest complaints about owning a Tesla is Service wait times, as availability can be extremely limited in some areas. However, Tesla has done a lot to work on increasing the number of Service centers it has, while also working hard to streamline service and make it less time-consuming.

Tesla has aimed to have an F1-style service experience, but it has not worked out that way. With that being said, there are significantly fewer complaints with Tesla’s Service division than in years past. With the presence of Mobile Technicians and more refined Service processes, things are definitely improving.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk hits back at former Tesla employee who disagrees with pay package

Tesla is worth more than all other automotive companies combined. Which of those CEOs would you like to run Tesla?

It won’t be me.

Published

15 hours ago

on

October 20, 2025

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elon musk speaking
Credit: TED

Elon Musk gave a tough response to a former Tesla employee who spoke out on X about the structure of the CEO’s pay package, arguing that it is an overpayment and would not generate enough shareholder value.

Without a doubt, the biggest issue on the bill at this year’s Tesla Shareholder Meeting in November is that of the pay package that was proposed to CEO Elon Musk.

As the Shareholder Meeting approaches, Tesla is urging those investors to vote in support of Musk’s pay package. So far, the community has been overwhelmingly supportive of giving Musk his massive payday, which could give him $1 trillion in additional holdings if he completes each of the outlined performance tranches.

However, there are a handful of institutional and individual shareholders who have pushed back against the package, either because of its value or because they feel it does not benefit shareholders enough.

Last week, we reported that Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advised voting against Tesla’s pay package for Musk. The firm said the payday would give Musk”extraordinarily high pay opportunities over the next ten years,” and it would “reduce the board’s ability to meaningfully adjust future pay levels.”

Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay package hits first adversity from proxy firm

Additionally, it called the value of the pay package “astronomical.”

On Saturday, a former Tesla employee said on X that Tesla’s proposed pay package for Musk would “barely beat inflation and it would underperform the S&P 500 considerably.” Additionally, he said:

“Sorry, Tesla, some of us (and supposedly, ISS too) simply don’t think that underperforming the S&P 500 this much is worth paying somebody 20 billion dollars worth of company value.

As a fan, I love Tesla, I want it to succeed. As a shareholder, I don’t want Tesla to over-pay for its CEO I strongly believe that the 2025 pay package proposal would over-pay for its CEO, and that other competent CEOs could grow Tesla just as much with way less political drama and cost investors much less that this proposal.”

Musk responded bluntly:

“Tesla is worth more than all other automotive companies combined. Which of those CEOs would you like to run Tesla? It won’t be me.”

It seems the worry about Musk’s potential involvement in politics still looms to many, based on the responses to Musk’s post, which frequently mention that as a downside of his last year as Tesla CEO. However, Tesla’s Board confronted that directly.

In its proxy filing after announcing the pay package, Tesla said that it had three commitments, one of which was that the company would “receive assurances that Musk’s involvement with the political sphere would wind down in a timely manner.”

Tesla Board takes firm stance on Elon Musk’s political involvement in pay package proxy

Musk’s previous pay package was approved by shareholders twice, but it never made it to the CEO because of a lawsuit with the Delaware Chancery Court brought forth by a small-time shareholder.

The response from Musk does seem to show that if this time is no different, he will inevitably step down as CEO in the coming years.

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Tesla rivals are lagging behind alarmingly in this crucial EV necessity

Published

16 hours ago

on

October 20, 2025

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tesla supercharger
Credit: Tesla

Tesla rivals are lagging behind the company in alarming fashion in this crucial EV necessity: charging.

Tesla has had a long-standing reputation for having the most expansive electric vehicle charging infrastructure, and even as other companies have launched their own as part of the vehicle manufacturing, nobody seems to keep pace with the EV leader.

A report from Paren exhibited this trend in Q3, showing that Tesla overwhelmingly dominated EV charging stall installations over the past three months. This data is based on U.S. installations, where Tesla has long held a dominating position as the leader in overall electric vehicle sales for many years.

In Q3, Tesla installed 1,820 new chargers in the United States, bringing its total presence to 34,328, an all-time market share of 53.2 percent of all charging stalls in the country.

What’s alarming is the fact that all other networks — ChargePoint, Red E, Electrify America, EV Connect, EVgo, Ionna, Blink, Pilot Flying J, and Rivian Adventure — only installed 841 chargers collectively in Q3. That is nearly 1,000 units behind Tesla, despite there being nine companies contributing as competitors.

These nine networks have 10,055 stalls in total, the data from Paren shows, accounting for 15.6 percent of the chargers in the United States.

EV charging is such a crucial part of the ownership experience, and also a part of the ongoing expansion of EV adoption in the United States.

As more people buy EVs and they become a more prominent form of passenger transportation, more chargers are needed. Many owners charge at home, but charging options in public are important to have for traveling, commuting, and for those who do not have access to residential charging.

Tesla ownership without home charging: Here’s how it’s done

With Tesla opening its Supercharger Network to the majority of EV brands over the past two years, things have gotten better.

It has been alarming to see so many companies involved in EV infrastructure essentially accept the gap between Tesla and themselves; not a single company has tried to up its pace to catch up to what Tesla has.

When it comes down to it, as long as there is charging, the manufacturer does not truly matter.

However, it would be nice to see Tesla have some competition in the space, but with its domination and head start in the infrastructure division, it seems the company will have this competitive advantage for years to come.

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