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Elon Musk says SpaceX could soon face bankruptcy – here’s why that’s unlikely
In a new leaked email, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says that the company could go bankrupt if, by the end of 2022, it can’t achieve Starship and Starlink milestones that are by all practical appearances out of reach.
The news – first broken by SpaceExplored – comes about a week after CNBC reported that Musk was “shaking up” SpaceX’s leadership by effectively firing its vice president of propulsion due to “a lack of progress” in the development of Starship’s Raptor engine. Now, apparently after taking his first good look ‘under the hood’ in a while, Musk says that “the Raptor production crisis is much worse than it seemed a few weeks ago.” Worse, the CEO has implied that if it “can’t get enough reliable Raptors made [by the end of 2022]…[SpaceX will] face a genuine risk of bankruptcy.”
The email raises both skepticism and several major questions.
First and foremost, can there be any truth to Musk’s claim that SpaceX could go bankrupt because of an unspecified “Raptor production crisis [and disaster]?” Put simply, not really. Musk’s argument is simple enough. According to his estimations, the first-generation (V1) Starlink satellite internet constellation is “financially weak by itself,” which has led SpaceX to develop a much larger, more advanced second-generation (V2) Starlink satellite and constellation that the company’s existing “Falcon [rockets have] neither the [payload] volume nor mass to orbit” to launch. To efficiently launch the Starlink V2 constellation, then, Musk says SpaceX needs Starship to be operational.
Up to that point, nothing in Musk’s email implies that a “Raptor production crisis” could pose any serious harm to SpaceX beyond annoying delays. More than two years ago, Musk believed that Raptor V1.0 already cost less than $1M to produce. As of 2021, SpaceX (again per Musk) is completing an average of one Raptor engine every two days and currently has 35 functional engines installed on Starship and Super Heavy booster prototypes in Boca Chica, Texas. Already, at a rate of one engine every 48 hours, SpaceX’s Raptor production capabilities are theoretically strong enough to fully outfit a significant Starship fleet.
-->Both stages of Starship are designed to be rapidly and fully reusable and absolutely need to be to efficiently and rapidly launch SpaceX’s Starlink V2 constellation. In theory, a production capacity of ~180 Raptors per year should allow SpaceX to outfit a fleet of three Super Heavies (99 engines) and 13 Starships (72 engines). Even if Super Heavy booster reuse is initially no faster than Falcon (~1 launch per month) and Starship reuse is no faster than Dragon (~3 launches per year), that fleet would be able to launch at least 36 times per years. Even if SpaceX’s former propulsion executives somehow pulled the wool over Musk’s eyes, tricking him into seeing engines that just weren’t there and hiding hundreds of millions of dollars in secret cost overruns from the company’s own accountants, an annual run rate of 100 Raptor engines at a cost of $5 million each would still be able to power a fleet of six reusable ships and two boosters capable of ~20 launches per year.
Musk says that SpaceX will only face the risk of bankruptcy if it “cannot achieve a Starship flight rate of at least once every two weeks next year” – equivalent to 26 launches annually. Again, being deceived for years would be a terrible look but nothing described above appears to have any chance of bankrupting SpaceX. However, the CEO also says that SpaceX “is spooling up” one or several factories to produce “several million” Starlink user terminals (dishes) per year in a process that “will consume massive capital [and assumes] that [Starlink V2 satellites] will be on orbit to handle the bandwidth demand.” He even goes as far as to say that those millions of terminals “will be useless otherwise.”
Once again, while what he describes is an undeniable hurdle for SpaceX, the company is making a choice to “consume massive capital” to “spool up” Starlink dish factories before the constellation capacity needed to take advantage of those dishes has been secured. SpaceX doesn’t need to make such a massive investment so quickly when it could instead split that money with Starship, ensure that Starship and Raptor and Starlink V2.0 satellites are ready or close to ready for routine launches, and then invest heavily in dish production.
For example, just this month, SpaceX raised almost $350M from investors that have a practically bottomless appetite for SpaceX investments. Combined, by the end of the year, SpaceX will have likely raised more than $2.3B in 2021 alone. Valued at more than $100 billion, the company could – as a last resort – feasibly raise double-digit billions in one fell swoop with an IPO. Put simply, the only way SpaceX could ever go bankrupt in the near term would be by consciously letting itself drown in a sea of life preservers.
This is not to say that SpaceX doesn’t have numerous massive challenges ahead of it, nor is it to say that its fundraising potential is truly limitless. Investors could eventually become disillusioned. It’s entirely possible that it will take SpaceX years longer than Musk expects to begin routine Starlink V2.0 launches with Starship. Environmental approvals alone could easily preclude more than five orbital Starship launches in 2022 and potentially prevent regular (i.e. biweekly) launches well into 2023. But the fact of the matter is that unless Elon Musk is telegraphing signs that the rest of the company’s finances are a house of cards, the odds of SpaceX actually going bankrupt anytime soon are vanishingly small. In reality, he’s likely just attempting to (for better or worse) instill some amount of fear and panic in SpaceX employees to encourage them to work more hours and take fewer days off.
Update: Musk has tweeted a brief public comment confirming that he believes bankruptcy is actually an unlikely – but not impossible – outcome for SpaceX.
If a severe global recession were to dry up capital availability / liquidity while SpaceX was losing billions on Starlink & Starship, then bankruptcy, while still unlikely, is not impossible.
GM & Chrysler went BK last recession.
“Only the paranoid survive.” – Grove— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 30, 2021
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Elon Musk
Elon Musk shares SpaceX’s directive that destroys a prevalent media narrative
Musk’s comments followed Starlink’s initiatives for people affected by severe flooding in Indonesia and Cyclone Ditwah in Sri Lanka.
Elon Musk recently shared SpaceX’s standing policy to offer free Starlink service during natural disasters worldwide, highlighting the company’s commitment to pursue aid over profit during times of need.
Musk’s comments followed Starlink’s initiatives for people affected by severe flooding in Indonesia and Cyclone Ditwah in Sri Lanka.
Starlink activates free service in Indonesia and Sri Lanka
Starlink recently announced free service for those impacted by severe flooding in Indonesia’s Sumatra region, partnering with the government to deploy terminals rapidly to the hardest-hit areas. The offer extends to new and existing customers through December, restoring connectivity in zones where traditional networks have failed due to infrastructure damage.
Musk quoted the post on X, writing, “SpaceX standard policy is to make Starlink free whenever there is a natural disaster somewhere in the world. It would not be right to profit from misfortune.”
Starlink extended the same relief to Sri Lanka amid Cyclone Ditwah, coordinating with local authorities for additional support. The cyclone battered the island nation with heavy rains and winds, disrupting communications for thousands. Free access also lasts until year-end, emphasizing Starlink’s role in bridging gaps during crises.
-->“For those affected by the severe flooding in Indonesia and Sri Lanka in the aftermath of Cyclone Ditwah, Starlink is providing free service to new and existing customers through the end of December 2025. We’re also working with the Indonesian government to rapidly deploy terminals and restore connectivity to the hardest-hit areas on Sumatra, as well as with the Sri Lankan government to provide additional assistance,” Starlink wrote in a post on its official website.
Musk’s companies routinely provide aid
Musk’s firms have a track record of providing critical support in crises, often without fanfare, challenging portrayals of him as a comic book villain intent on enriching himself on the backs of a suffering populace. In January 2024 alone, Tesla opened Superchargers for free in Japan’s Hokuriku region after a magnitude 7.6 earthquake killed at least 55 and injured hundreds.
Similar efforts include Starlink deployments for the 2023 Maui wildfires, 2024 Hurricane Helene in North Carolina, and floods in Texas, where the service was used to help facilitate emergency coordination. These actions, which total millions in waived fees and logistics, demonstrate a proactive ethos among Musk’s companies, with Musk noting in past interviews that such aid stems from engineering solutions over optics.
The initiatives also provide a direct rebuttal of Musk’s characterization on mainstream media, which tends to lean negatively. This has become much more notable in recent years as Musk adopted more conservative policies. These negative sentiments came to a head earlier this year when Tesla stores, vehicles, and even some owners, were attacked during waves of anti-Tesla protests.
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Tesla Cybertruck welcomed with open arms in South Korea
The event featured interactive demos, a light show with the full Tesla lineup, and announcements including FSD Supervised’s planned rollout to Cybertruck by the end of 2025.
Tesla Korea handed over its first 30 Cybertrucks to owners on Thursday during a ceremonial event at the Cultural Reserve Base in Seoul, marking the all-electric pickup truck’s official debut outside North America.
The event featured interactive demos, a light show with the full Tesla lineup, and announcements including FSD Supervised’s planned rollout to Cybertruck by the end of 2025.
A historic delivery event
The November 27 event transformed a former oil reserve warehouse into a symbolic launchpad for electric mobility. Attended by 30 new owners, the event included hands-on activities such as hammer-strike durability tests, accessory sales, a lucky draw, and group photos. It culminated in a synchronized light show featuring the 30 Cybertrucks alongside Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y vehicles, which drew cheers from attendees.
Yvonne Chan, Tesla APAC Regional Director, joined as a special guest to celebrate the delivery milestone. Tesla Korea President Seo Young-deuk was also in attendance, and shared his optimism for the company’s momentum in the country.
“Korea is currently the third-largest market for Tesla sales worldwide, and this year, for the first time, it has achieved the No. 1 spot in imported car brand sales volume, Tesla Korea is growing at an incredibly rapid pace,” he said. “To repay this love from our customers, Tesla plans to continue investing in the Korean market and enhancing the customer experience.”
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Seo announced the official introduction of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) in Korea, with Cybertrucks slated for inclusion by the end of 2025, which promoted applause from the event’s attendees. With even the Cybertruck expected to receive FSD this year, Tesla Korea’s fleet could very well become the country’s most advanced vehicles overnight.
Infrastructure growth remains a priority to support Tesla Korea’s expanding fleet. Tesla Korea’s Supercharger network currently includes 166 sites with 1,133 stalls, with V4 units planned for nationwide highway rest areas to boost long-distance travel. The company also operates seven stores and 15 service centers, though plans are underway to double both by 2027. A new store in Incheon’s Songdo district is scheduled to open by December 2025, enhancing accessibility for western Seoul-area customers.
Seo concluded, “Through all-encompassing investments spanning products, charging infrastructure, and service networks, Tesla Korea will deliver the most refined electric vehicle experience to Korean customers.”
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Tesla China delivery centers packed as Q4 2025 enters its final month
Fresh photos from delivery centers in the country show rows upon rows of Model Ys and Model 3s.
Tesla’s delivery centers in China are filled with vehicles as the company ramps up for its final push in Q4 2025. Fresh photos from delivery centers in the country show rows upon rows of Model Ys and Model 3s, signaling strong end-of-quarter momentum.
A delivery push for Q4 2025
A recent aerial shot from a Tesla delivery center in China captures the company’s efforts to deliver as many vehicles as possible as the year comes to a close. As could be seen in the image, which was posted by on X by Tesla enthusiast Nic Cruz Patane, the facility was filled with numerous Model Y and Model 3 units, each vehicle seemingly ready to be handed over to customers.
Echoing the scene, another post, reportedly from two weeks prior, showed a similar scene in a Shanghai location, which was packed with Model Y units. X user Roberto Nores shared the photo, noting that the image also shows multiple Model Y Ls, a six-seat extended wheelbase version of the popular all-electric crossover.
Towards a strong Q4 finish
China remains Tesla’s volume powerhouse, accounting for a good portion of the company’s global deliveries in recent quarters. That being said, reports did emerge in early November stating that the company only reached 26,006 retail sales during October, as noted in a CNEV Post report. The reasons for this remain to be seen, though a focus on exports could have been a contributing factor.
Tesla China does seem to be hinting at some momentum this November. Just recently, Tesla watchers observed that the order page for the Model Y in China shows a message informing customers that those who wish to guarantee delivery by the end of the year should purchase an inventory unit. This was despite the Model Y RWD and Model Y L showing an estimated delivery timeline of 4-8 weeks, and the Model Y Long Range RWD and Model Y Long Range AWD showing 4-13 weeks.
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Elon Musk shares SpaceX’s directive that destroys a prevalent media narrative
Tesla Cybertruck welcomed with open arms in South Korea
