Connect with us

News

Elon Musk says SpaceX could soon face bankruptcy – here’s why that’s unlikely

(NASASpaceflight - bocachicagal)

Published

4 years ago

on

In a new leaked email, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says that the company could go bankrupt if, by the end of 2022, it can’t achieve Starship and Starlink milestones that are by all practical appearances out of reach.

The news – first broken by SpaceExplored – comes about a week after CNBC reported that Musk was “shaking up” SpaceX’s leadership by effectively firing its vice president of propulsion due to “a lack of progress” in the development of Starship’s Raptor engine. Now, apparently after taking his first good look ‘under the hood’ in a while, Musk says that “the Raptor production crisis is much worse than it seemed a few weeks ago.” Worse, the CEO has implied that if it “can’t get enough reliable Raptors made [by the end of 2022]…[SpaceX will] face a genuine risk of bankruptcy.”

The email raises both skepticism and several major questions.

First and foremost, can there be any truth to Musk’s claim that SpaceX could go bankrupt because of an unspecified “Raptor production crisis [and disaster]?” Put simply, not really. Musk’s argument is simple enough. According to his estimations, the first-generation (V1) Starlink satellite internet constellation is “financially weak by itself,” which has led SpaceX to develop a much larger, more advanced second-generation (V2) Starlink satellite and constellation that the company’s existing “Falcon [rockets have] neither the [payload] volume nor mass to orbit” to launch. To efficiently launch the Starlink V2 constellation, then, Musk says SpaceX needs Starship to be operational.

Up to that point, nothing in Musk’s email implies that a “Raptor production crisis” could pose any serious harm to SpaceX beyond annoying delays. More than two years ago, Musk believed that Raptor V1.0 already cost less than $1M to produce. As of 2021, SpaceX (again per Musk) is completing an average of one Raptor engine every two days and currently has 35 functional engines installed on Starship and Super Heavy booster prototypes in Boca Chica, Texas. Already, at a rate of one engine every 48 hours, SpaceX’s Raptor production capabilities are theoretically strong enough to fully outfit a significant Starship fleet.

Advertisement

Both stages of Starship are designed to be rapidly and fully reusable and absolutely need to be to efficiently and rapidly launch SpaceX’s Starlink V2 constellation. In theory, a production capacity of ~180 Raptors per year should allow SpaceX to outfit a fleet of three Super Heavies (99 engines) and 13 Starships (72 engines). Even if Super Heavy booster reuse is initially no faster than Falcon (~1 launch per month) and Starship reuse is no faster than Dragon (~3 launches per year), that fleet would be able to launch at least 36 times per years. Even if SpaceX’s former propulsion executives somehow pulled the wool over Musk’s eyes, tricking him into seeing engines that just weren’t there and hiding hundreds of millions of dollars in secret cost overruns from the company’s own accountants, an annual run rate of 100 Raptor engines at a cost of $5 million each would still be able to power a fleet of six reusable ships and two boosters capable of ~20 launches per year.

Starship S20 recently aced its first six-Raptor static fire. (SpaceX)
Super Heavy B4 currently has 29 functional Raptor engines installed. (SpaceX)

Musk says that SpaceX will only face the risk of bankruptcy if it “cannot achieve a Starship flight rate of at least once every two weeks next year” – equivalent to 26 launches annually. Again, being deceived for years would be a terrible look but nothing described above appears to have any chance of bankrupting SpaceX. However, the CEO also says that SpaceX “is spooling up” one or several factories to produce “several million” Starlink user terminals (dishes) per year in a process that “will consume massive capital [and assumes] that [Starlink V2 satellites] will be on orbit to handle the bandwidth demand.” He even goes as far as to say that those millions of terminals “will be useless otherwise.”

Once again, while what he describes is an undeniable hurdle for SpaceX, the company is making a choice to “consume massive capital” to “spool up” Starlink dish factories before the constellation capacity needed to take advantage of those dishes has been secured. SpaceX doesn’t need to make such a massive investment so quickly when it could instead split that money with Starship, ensure that Starship and Raptor and Starlink V2.0 satellites are ready or close to ready for routine launches, and then invest heavily in dish production.

SpaceX says Starship will launch the next generation of Starlink satellites

For example, just this month, SpaceX raised almost $350M from investors that have a practically bottomless appetite for SpaceX investments. Combined, by the end of the year, SpaceX will have likely raised more than $2.3B in 2021 alone. Valued at more than $100 billion, the company could – as a last resort – feasibly raise double-digit billions in one fell swoop with an IPO. Put simply, the only way SpaceX could ever go bankrupt in the near term would be by consciously letting itself drown in a sea of life preservers.

This is not to say that SpaceX doesn’t have numerous massive challenges ahead of it, nor is it to say that its fundraising potential is truly limitless. Investors could eventually become disillusioned. It’s entirely possible that it will take SpaceX years longer than Musk expects to begin routine Starlink V2.0 launches with Starship. Environmental approvals alone could easily preclude more than five orbital Starship launches in 2022 and potentially prevent regular (i.e. biweekly) launches well into 2023. But the fact of the matter is that unless Elon Musk is telegraphing signs that the rest of the company’s finances are a house of cards, the odds of SpaceX actually going bankrupt anytime soon are vanishingly small. In reality, he’s likely just attempting to (for better or worse) instill some amount of fear and panic in SpaceX employees to encourage them to work more hours and take fewer days off.

Update: Musk has tweeted a brief public comment confirming that he believes bankruptcy is actually an unlikely – but not impossible – outcome for SpaceX.

Advertisement
Related Topics:

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

Advertisement
Comments

News

Tesla Cybertruck gets Full Self-Driving v14 release date, sort of

Published

5 hours ago

on

October 7, 2025

By

Tesla Cybertruck owners are wondering when they will get access to the company’s Full Self-Driving version 14.1 that rolled out to other owners today for the first time.

Cybertruck owners typically receive Full Self-Driving updates slightly later than other drivers, as the process for the all-electric pickup is different. It is a larger vehicle that requires some additional attention from Tesla before FSD versions are rolled out, so they will be slightly delayed. CEO Elon Musk said the all-wheel steering technically requires a bit more attention before rollout as well.

After some owners got access to the v14.1 Full Self-Driving suite this morning, Cybertruck owners sought out a potential timeframe for when they would be able to experience things for themselves.

Tesla owners show off improvements with new Full Self-Driving v14 rollout

They were able to get an answer from Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla’s Head of AI, who said:

“We got you. Coming soon.”

The release of FSD v14.1 for Cybertruck will not be tempered, either. Elluswamy then confirmed that Tesla would be rolling out the full-featured FSD v14 for the pickup, meaning it would be able to reverse and park itself, among other features.

Elluswamy said it would be capable of these features, which were void in other FSD releases for Cybertruck in the past.

Tesla’s rollout of FSD v14.1 brings several extremely notable changes and improvements to the suite, including more refined operation in parking garages, a new ability to choose parking preferences upon arriving at your destination, a new driving mode called “Sloth,” which is even more reserved than “Chill,” and general operational improvements.

Those who were lucky enough to receive the suite have already started showing off the improvements, and they definitely seem to be a step up from what v13’s more recent versions were capable of.

CEO Elon Musk called v14 “sentient” a few weeks back, and it seems that it is moving toward that. However, he did state that additional releases with more capabilities would be available in the coming weeks, but many owners are still waiting for this first version.

Continue Reading

News

Tesla launches two new affordable models with ‘Standard’ Model 3, Y offerings

It is the first time Tesla has revealed any details about what it planned to launch in terms of its new, lower-cost vehicles, which are mainly aimed at countering the loss of the $7,500 EV tax credit.

Published

7 hours ago

on

October 7, 2025

By

Credit: Tesla

Tesla has officially launched its affordable models with the new Model 3 and Model Y ‘Standard’ versions hitting the company’s Online Design Studio on Tuesday.

It is the first time Tesla has revealed any details about what it planned to launch in terms of its new, lower-cost vehicles, which are mainly aimed at countering the loss of the $7,500 EV tax credit.

Here’s what Tesla went with for its release of the new affordable models.

Tesla Model Y ‘Standard’

The Model Y Standard is a stripped-down version of the all-electric crossover and starts at $39,990.

Deliveries are slated for November and December, the company says if you plan to order one, and it comes with a few major changes to improve efficiency and bring down cost for owners.

  • New athletically tuned exterior and new alloy wheels to improve aerodynamics
  • 15.4″ touchscreen in the front, the same as the other trims
  • Available in three colors: Stealth Grey (free), White ($1,oo0 extra), Diamond Black ($1,500 extra)
  • Textile and vegan leather interior
  • Range sits at 321 miles
  • New front fascia
  • Covered glass roof (textile on inside)
  • Windows are not acoustically laminated for a quieter cabin
  • Manual mirrors and seats
  • Smaller frunk
  • No rear infotainment screen
  • No basic Autopilot
  • 69 kWh battery
  • New 19″ Aperture wheels
  • 0-60 MPH in 6.8 seconds
  • 7 speaker stereo, down from 15 speakers in premium models

Tesla Model 3 ‘Standard’

The Model 3 Standard was a surprise offering from Tesla, as many had only anticipated the company to refine and offer a more affordable version of the Model Y.

Coming in at $36,990, it features many of the same changes Tesla made with the Model Y “Standard,” all ways to improve price and make it less flashy than the more premium offerings.

Deliveries are also slated for November for this vehicle, and it features relatively the same stripped-down offerings as the Model Y Standard.

  • Available in three colors: Stealth Grey (free), White ($1,oo0 extra), Diamond Black ($1,500 extra)
  • Textile and vegan leather interior
  • Range sits at 321 miles
  • Covered glass roof (textile on inside)
  • Manual mirrors and seats
  • No rear infotainment screen
  • No basic Autopilot
  • 69 kWh battery
  • New 19″ Aperture wheels
  • 0-60 MPH in 6.8 seconds
  • 7 speaker stereo, down from 15 speakers in premium models
@teslarati 🚨 Tesla’s Affordable Models are here! Let’s talk about them! #tesla #fyp #viral #teslaev #elonmusk ♬ Natural Emotions – Muspace Lofi

Continue Reading

Elon Musk

Tesla owners show off improvements with new Full Self-Driving v14 rollout

Some of the big things that Tesla faced head-on with the development and release of v14 were navigating in parking garages and handling parking after arriving at a destination.

Published

10 hours ago

on

October 7, 2025

By

Credit: Tesla Europe & Middle East/X

Tesla owners with access to the company’s Full Self-Driving new version, v14, which rolled out on Tuesday morning, are showcasing some of the very impressive improvements that have arrived.

CEO Elon Musk called v14 “sentient” a few weeks ahead of its rollout, claiming the newest iteration of the company’s Full Self-Driving platform would be the most accurate to date.

Tesla FSD (Supervised) V14.1 with Robotaxi-style dropoffs is here

It was obvious this narrative had Tesla owners keeping their expectations high, as there were very evidently things that needed to be improved upon that were present in v13. I wrote about several improvements I was hoping to see, and based on the release notes for v14, Tesla did have these things in the works already.

Some of the big things that Tesla faced head-on with the development and release of v14 were navigating in parking garages and handling parking after arriving at a destination.

Tesla said it was working to increase the capabilities of Summon within parking garages, as many owners believe that is where it would be the most beneficial.

While that does not appear to be part of this initial v14 rollout, it does seem Tesla is focused on improving the suite’s ability to navigate through these garages, including stopping for a ticket to enter the facility, finding a spot, and parking in an appropriate space.

It was evident this was a huge improvement based on one example from an owner who received v14:

If you look closely, you will even see the car shift slightly to the right when it arrives at the ticketing station, making it easier for the driver to hand over their ticket and payment. It then moves back out to the right when leaving to return to the center of the lane. It’s very intuitive.

Additionally, it appears to be more accurate when parking, thanks to improvements that enable owners to select the type of parking upon arrival at a destination.

In the v14.1 release notes, Tesla said that it has added “Arrival Options for you to select where FSD should park: in a Parking Lot, on the Street, in a Driveway, in a Parking Garage, or at the Curbside.”

One owner chose to navigate home and chose a garage to park in. Full Self-Driving performed it without any issues:

These are just two evident improvements so far, and there are likely many more on the way. The changes and fixes will be tracked by anyone with access to FSD v14 in the coming weeks.

Continue Reading

Trending