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Elon Musk says SpaceX could soon face bankruptcy – here’s why that’s unlikely

(NASASpaceflight - bocachicagal)

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In a new leaked email, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says that the company could go bankrupt if, by the end of 2022, it can’t achieve Starship and Starlink milestones that are by all practical appearances out of reach.

The news – first broken by SpaceExplored – comes about a week after CNBC reported that Musk was “shaking up” SpaceX’s leadership by effectively firing its vice president of propulsion due to “a lack of progress” in the development of Starship’s Raptor engine. Now, apparently after taking his first good look ‘under the hood’ in a while, Musk says that “the Raptor production crisis is much worse than it seemed a few weeks ago.” Worse, the CEO has implied that if it “can’t get enough reliable Raptors made [by the end of 2022]…[SpaceX will] face a genuine risk of bankruptcy.”

The email raises both skepticism and several major questions.

First and foremost, can there be any truth to Musk’s claim that SpaceX could go bankrupt because of an unspecified “Raptor production crisis [and disaster]?” Put simply, not really. Musk’s argument is simple enough. According to his estimations, the first-generation (V1) Starlink satellite internet constellation is “financially weak by itself,” which has led SpaceX to develop a much larger, more advanced second-generation (V2) Starlink satellite and constellation that the company’s existing “Falcon [rockets have] neither the [payload] volume nor mass to orbit” to launch. To efficiently launch the Starlink V2 constellation, then, Musk says SpaceX needs Starship to be operational.

Up to that point, nothing in Musk’s email implies that a “Raptor production crisis” could pose any serious harm to SpaceX beyond annoying delays. More than two years ago, Musk believed that Raptor V1.0 already cost less than $1M to produce. As of 2021, SpaceX (again per Musk) is completing an average of one Raptor engine every two days and currently has 35 functional engines installed on Starship and Super Heavy booster prototypes in Boca Chica, Texas. Already, at a rate of one engine every 48 hours, SpaceX’s Raptor production capabilities are theoretically strong enough to fully outfit a significant Starship fleet.

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Both stages of Starship are designed to be rapidly and fully reusable and absolutely need to be to efficiently and rapidly launch SpaceX’s Starlink V2 constellation. In theory, a production capacity of ~180 Raptors per year should allow SpaceX to outfit a fleet of three Super Heavies (99 engines) and 13 Starships (72 engines). Even if Super Heavy booster reuse is initially no faster than Falcon (~1 launch per month) and Starship reuse is no faster than Dragon (~3 launches per year), that fleet would be able to launch at least 36 times per years. Even if SpaceX’s former propulsion executives somehow pulled the wool over Musk’s eyes, tricking him into seeing engines that just weren’t there and hiding hundreds of millions of dollars in secret cost overruns from the company’s own accountants, an annual run rate of 100 Raptor engines at a cost of $5 million each would still be able to power a fleet of six reusable ships and two boosters capable of ~20 launches per year.

Starship S20 recently aced its first six-Raptor static fire. (SpaceX)
Super Heavy B4 currently has 29 functional Raptor engines installed. (SpaceX)

Musk says that SpaceX will only face the risk of bankruptcy if it “cannot achieve a Starship flight rate of at least once every two weeks next year” – equivalent to 26 launches annually. Again, being deceived for years would be a terrible look but nothing described above appears to have any chance of bankrupting SpaceX. However, the CEO also says that SpaceX “is spooling up” one or several factories to produce “several million” Starlink user terminals (dishes) per year in a process that “will consume massive capital [and assumes] that [Starlink V2 satellites] will be on orbit to handle the bandwidth demand.” He even goes as far as to say that those millions of terminals “will be useless otherwise.”

Once again, while what he describes is an undeniable hurdle for SpaceX, the company is making a choice to “consume massive capital” to “spool up” Starlink dish factories before the constellation capacity needed to take advantage of those dishes has been secured. SpaceX doesn’t need to make such a massive investment so quickly when it could instead split that money with Starship, ensure that Starship and Raptor and Starlink V2.0 satellites are ready or close to ready for routine launches, and then invest heavily in dish production.

For example, just this month, SpaceX raised almost $350M from investors that have a practically bottomless appetite for SpaceX investments. Combined, by the end of the year, SpaceX will have likely raised more than $2.3B in 2021 alone. Valued at more than $100 billion, the company could – as a last resort – feasibly raise double-digit billions in one fell swoop with an IPO. Put simply, the only way SpaceX could ever go bankrupt in the near term would be by consciously letting itself drown in a sea of life preservers.

This is not to say that SpaceX doesn’t have numerous massive challenges ahead of it, nor is it to say that its fundraising potential is truly limitless. Investors could eventually become disillusioned. It’s entirely possible that it will take SpaceX years longer than Musk expects to begin routine Starlink V2.0 launches with Starship. Environmental approvals alone could easily preclude more than five orbital Starship launches in 2022 and potentially prevent regular (i.e. biweekly) launches well into 2023. But the fact of the matter is that unless Elon Musk is telegraphing signs that the rest of the company’s finances are a house of cards, the odds of SpaceX actually going bankrupt anytime soon are vanishingly small. In reality, he’s likely just attempting to (for better or worse) instill some amount of fear and panic in SpaceX employees to encourage them to work more hours and take fewer days off.

Update: Musk has tweeted a brief public comment confirming that he believes bankruptcy is actually an unlikely – but not impossible – outcome for SpaceX.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla Model Y L reportedly entered mass production in Giga Shanghai

The vehicle is expected to be a larger version of the best-selling Model Y crossover.

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

Reports from industry watchers in China have suggested that the Tesla Model Y L has started mass production at Gigafactory Shanghai. The vehicle is expected to be a larger version of the best-selling Model Y crossover, offering three rows and six seats thanks to a longer wheelbase.

Tesla Model Y L Production Rumors

Reports about the new Model Y variant’s alleged milestone were initially shared on Weibo, with some industry watchers stating that the vehicle has already started mass production. Tesla China is reportedly surveying which of its domestic stores would have the first display units of the six-seat Model Y. 

The Model Y L’s steady march towards production was evident this past week, with recent reports indicating that the vehicle’s key specs have already been listed in the China Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s (MIIT) latest batch of new energy vehicle models that are eligible for vehicle purchase tax exemptions.

As per the MIIT’s list, the Model Y L will be a dual motor vehicle that is equipped with an 82.0-kWh lithium-ion battery from LG Energy Solution. The vehicle will feature six seats with two captain seats on the second row, as well as a CLTC range of 751 km. 

Tesla Model Y L Potential

The potential of the Model Y L is vast, considering that it is produced in the existing Model Y lines of Tesla’s factories. This should slash new vehicle tooling costs and potential ramp-up issues. Three-row SUVs also command a pretty notable market that has mostly only been accessed by the more expensive Model X. With the Model Y L’s lower price, Tesla could become more competitive in the three-row SUV segment.

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As noted by longtime Tesla owner and investor @_SFTahoe, the Model Y L could also become a more premium option for the company’s Robotaxi business, thanks to its second row captain seats and spacious interior. The expansion of Model Y L Robotaxis should also be impressive considering Tesla’s mastery of mass manufacturing techniques. 

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Tesla Model 3 filings in China show interesting hardware addition

The addition of a front bumper camera to the Tesla Model 3 is a big upgrade from a hardware perspective.

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Credit: Tesla Newswire via China's MIIT

Tesla Model 3 filings in China are showing the vehicle could get a very interesting hardware addition, one that was not included on the “Highland” update when it rolled out to customers a year and a half ago.

The Model 3 Highland is Tesla’s updated version of the all-electric sedan, and was launched across the world in early 2024. It featured a variety of updates, including new exterior and interior designs.

However, there were a few things missing from the update that surprised Tesla fans because they were included on other cars.

One of them was the lack of a front bumper camera, a hardware piece that was included on other vehicles within the company’s lineup, including the Model Y Juniper, an updated version of the all-electric crossover that launched earlier this year.

Now, it seems Tesla is preparing to implement that front camera on the Model 3, as new filings with China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) showed the car with the addition:

The front bumper camera is a small but powerful addition to Tesla vehicles. It not only enhances visibility for simple tasks like parking, helping avoid things like curbs, but it also helps provide a wider field of view directly in front of the car.

It is also a crucial part of the Full Self-Driving and Autopilot suites, helping provide yet another angle of vision for the vehicle as Tesla makes its suite more robust. It is already improving through software upgrades and data collection, but it could always use additional hardware to enhance accuracy.

A Model 3 Highland test mule was spotted near Boston, Massachusetts, back in May with a variety of additional cameras equipped. Some believed this was a vehicle that was assisting with collecting training data.

Tesla is testing a Model 3 with some mysterious cameras in the U.S.

However, it could be a sign of Tesla planning to add this piece of hardware to a slightly updated version of the new Model 3 that could come to production in various markets in the near future.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk details massive FSD update set for September release

“This will substantially reduce the need for driver attention, but some complex intersections, heavy weather or unusual events will still require attention.”

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Credit: Tesla Asia | X

Tesla CEO Elon Musk detailed the changes that are expected to come with a massive Full Self-Driving (FSD) update, which is set to roll out sometime in September, he revealed earlier this week.

Tesla has been refining its FSD suite for years, but it has never been as good as it is now. The focus is to get the suite to a point where interventions are no longer needed and drivers simply become passengers, as they will not be responsible for paying attention to the road.

Elon Musk teases crazy new Tesla FSD model: here’s when it’s coming

That version of FSD will come eventually, but not next month. However, there are dramatic improvements that will come with next month’s FSD update that will roll out to the public, Musk said:

“The FSD software update next month will be a major step-change improvement for rare conditions.”

Additionally, he provided specific details on what would change, hinting that the need for a driver to pay attention will be “substantially reduced,” but there are some “complex intersections, heavy weather, or unusual events” that will still require drivers to assume responsibility for the car:

“This will substantially reduce the need for driver attention, but some complex intersections, heavy weather or unusual events will still require attention.”

We have been teased about these types of updates before, but usually they involve some kind of mention of FSD being ready for unsupervised driving “by the end of the year.” Musk did not mention that here.

There is also the fact that Tesla has another FSD build in Austin for the Robotaxi suite that is more advanced than what is available to the public. It has performed well, Musk says, making claims that there are times when it feels “eerily human.”

Tesla Q2 2025 vehicle safety report proves FSD makes driving almost 10X safer

The improvements in FSD capabilities in subsequent releases are usually very evident. As Tesla continues to refine the suite for the public, it gains more confidence and becomes smarter through the collection of data and the use of neural networks.

The only thing left to wait for is the release itself, and we are hopeful it will roll out to the public in September, as Musk says.

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