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EV battery replacement will soon cost less than fixing a gas engine: study

Image used with permission for Teslarati. (Credit: Tom Cross)

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A new study claims that replacing an electric vehicle battery will soon cost less than fixing the engine of a gas car. This is one of the most notable arguments that supporters of combustion engines use to attempt to disprove the effectiveness of electric vehicles.

Recurrent found that the cost of electric vehicle batteries and where they are headed in terms of pricing is on pace for the replacement of an entire pack to be less than a gas engine repair by 2030.

This was supported by the projected cost of EV battery prices in a new study from Goldman Sachs. The firm said that by 2026, battery prices are projected to reach $80 per kilowatt hour (kWh), roughly half the price of what they were priced in 2023.

In just three years, the cost of EV batteries was sliced in half, but the movement could continue to work in the favor of consumers and EV drivers. Goldman Sachs continued to report that their projected cost for batteries is $64 per kWh, but some, like RMI, have it as low as $32 per kWh.

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The report from Recurrent states:

Goldman Sachs’ October 2024 report puts the estimated pack price in 2030 at $64/kWh. Compared to other estimates, this number is high. In January 2024, industry leader RMI estimated a 2030 cell price of $32–$54/kWh, or $45-$65/kWh for the pack. However, over the course of 2024, CATL began offering LFP cells as low as $56/kWh and BYD followed. This summer, Clean Energy Associate predicted that the global market for lithium-ion batteries will remain oversupplied through 2028, meaning even lower than anticipated prices.”

The study continued:

“This puts pack prices at or under $50/kWh. For a huge, 100 kWh pack, replacement costs might be $4500-$5000, or $3,375 for a more standard 75 kWh pack. That’s on par with an engine replacement!”

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This would effectively mean the cost of replacing an EV battery pack would drop to 30 percent of what it did in 2020.

Goldman Sachs detailed the causes of the prices per kWh dropping in its report:

“A continued downturn in battery metal prices. That includes lithium and cobalt, and nearly 60% of the cost of batteries is from metals. …Roughly over 40% of the decline is just coming from lower commodity costs, because we had a lot of green inflation during 2020 to 2023.”

The EV sector is still young, but the encouraging studies that show prices for battery replacement going down are big news for both companies and consumers.

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Companies can likely rely on these price reductions to help increase sales and start seeing some return on their massive investments in EVs. Meanwhile, consumers will be less weary of the expensive task of replacing a battery pack.

Need accessories for your Tesla? Check out the Teslarati Marketplace:

Please email me with questions and comments at joey@teslarati.com. I’d love to chat! You can also reach me on X @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Tesla to discuss expansion of Samsung AI6 production plans: report

Tesla has reportedly requested an additional 24,000 wafers per month, which would bring total production capacity to around 40,000 wafers if finalized.

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Tesla-Chips-HW3-1
Credit: Tom Cross

Tesla is reportedly discussing an expansion of its next-generation AI chip supply deal with Samsung Electronics. 

As per a report from Korean industry outlet The Elec, Tesla purchasing executives are reportedly scheduled to meet Samsung officials this week to negotiate additional production volume for the company’s upcoming AI6 chip.

Industry sources cited in the report stated that Tesla is pushing to increase the production volume of its AI6 chip, which will be manufactured using Samsung’s 2-nanometer process.

Tesla previously signed a long-term foundry agreement with Samsung covering AI6 production through December 31, 2033. The deal was reportedly valued at about 22.8 trillion won (roughly $16–17 billion).

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Under the existing agreement, Tesla secured approximately 16,000 wafers per month from the facility. The company has reportedly requested an additional 24,000 wafers per month, which would bring total production capacity to around 40,000 wafers if finalized.

Tesla purchasing executives are expected to discuss detailed supply terms during their visit to Samsung this week.

The AI6 chip is expected to support several Tesla technologies. Industry sources stated that the chip could be used for the company’s Full Self-Driving system, the Optimus humanoid robot, and Tesla’s internal AI data centers.

The report also indicated that AI6 clusters could replace the role previously planned for Tesla’s Dojo AI supercomputer. Instead of a single system, multiple AI6 chips would be combined into server-level clusters.

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Tesla’s semiconductor collaboration with Samsung dates back several years. Samsung participated in the design of Tesla’s HW3 (AI3) chip and manufactured it using a 14-nanometer process. The HW4 chip currently used in Tesla vehicles was also produced by Samsung using a 5-nanometer node.

Tesla previously planned to split production of its AI5 chip between Samsung and TSMC. However, the company reportedly chose Samsung as the primary partner for the newer AI6 chip.

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Elon Musk: Tesla could be first to build AGI in humanoid form

Musk’s statement was shared in a post on social media platform X.  

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Credit: Tesla

Elon Musk predicted that Tesla could become one of the developers of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) in humanoid form. Musk’s statement was shared in a post on social media platform X.  

In his post, Musk stated that “Tesla will be one of the companies to make AGI and probably the first to make it in humanoid/atom-shaping form.”

The comment comes as Tesla expands development of its Optimus humanoid robot.

During Tesla’s Q4 earnings report, Elon Musk stated that production of the Model S and Model X would be phased out at its Fremont, California, facility. The vehicles’ production line will then be converted to a pilot line for Optimus. Tesla is looking to produce 1 million units of the humanoid robots annually to start.

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Musk has previously stated that Optimus could eventually function as a von Neumann probe. The concept, proposed by mathematician John von Neumann, describes a machine capable of replicating itself using planetary resources and sending those replicas to other worlds.

Optimus would likely only be able to achieve this potential if it manages to achieve Artificial General Intelligence.

Other leaders in the AI sector have also expressed strong expectations about AGI’s potential. Demis Hassabis, CEO of Google DeepMind, recently spoke about the technology at the India AI Impact Summit 2026, as noted in a Benzinga report.

“It’s going to be something like ten times the impact of the Industrial Revolution, but happening at ten times the speed,” Hassabis said.

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Elon Musk’s recent comments about Tesla producing a product with AGI could hint at further collaboration among his companies. So far, Tesla is actively pursuing autonomous driving, but it is xAI that is pursuing AGI with its Grok program.

Considering that Elon Musk mentioned a Tesla humanoid product with AGI, it appears that an Optimus robot running xAI’s AI models could become a reality.

xAI had recently merged with SpaceX, though reports suggest that Elon Musk is also considering an even bigger merger for all his companies, including Tesla.

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Tesla influencers argue company’s polarizing Full Self-Driving transfer decision

Tesla maintains it will honor transfers for orders with initial delivery windows before the deadline and offers full deposit refunds otherwise, citing longstanding fine print that the program is “subject to change at any time.”

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Tesla’s decision to tighten its Full Self-Driving (FSD) transfer promotion has ignited fierce debate among owners and enthusiasts.

The company quietly updated its terms in late February 2026, changing the eligibility from “order by March 31, 2026” to “take delivery by March 31, 2026.”

What began as a flexible incentive to boost sales, allowing buyers to transfer their paid FSD (Supervised) to a new vehicle, now excludes many, particularly Cybertruck owners facing delivery delays into summer or later.

Tesla maintains it will honor transfers for orders with initial delivery windows before the deadline and offers full deposit refunds otherwise, citing longstanding fine print that the program is “subject to change at any time.”

The reversal has polarized the Tesla community, with accusations of a “bait-and-switch” clashing against defenses of corporate pragmatism. Many owners who placed orders under the original wording feel betrayed, especially as production backlogs and new unsupervised FSD rollout complicate timelines.

However, Tesla has allowed them to cancel their orders and receive a refund.

Critics of the decision argue that the change disadvantages loyal customers who helped fund FSD development, calling it poor communication and a revenue grab as Tesla pivots toward subscriptions.

Popular influencers have amplified the divide. Whole Mars Catalog struck a measured but firm tone, acknowledging the original “order by” language but emphasizing Tesla’s right to adjust terms. He has continued to defend Tesla in this particular issue:

He criticized extreme backlash as “dramatization” and “spoiled kids,” noting the unsupervised FSD era and broader sales challenges make blanket transfers financially risky. Whole Mars advocated for polite outreach to CEO Elon Musk over the issue.

In a contrasting perspective, Dirty TesLA voiced sharper frustration, posting that blocking transfers feels “crazy” and distancing himself from “people that want to worship a corporation and say they can do no wrong.” His stance resonated with owners who view the policy flip as disrespectful to early adopters.

Popular Tesla influencer Sawyer Merritt captured the frustration felt by thousands. In a widely shared thread viewed over 700,000 times, Merritt detailed how pre-change Cybertruck orders now risk losing FSD eligibility unless their initial delivery window falls before March 31.

The controversy underscores deeper tensions—between Tesla’s need for revenue discipline and owners’ expectations of goodwill. As FSD evolves toward unsupervised capability, the community remains split: some see the change as necessary business, others as a broken promise. Whether Tesla reconsiders under pressure or holds firm remains to be seen, but it does not appear they are planning to budge.

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