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EVs to increase almost tenfold by 2030 under current policies: IEA

Credit: Wu Wa/YouTube

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Ahead of the United Nations COP28 climate summit in Dubai later this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has once again released its yearly report on energy generation and renewables.

The IEA shared the 2023 World Energy Outlook earlier this month, offering a comprehensive look at how energy is generated today and where energy industries are headed. The report is lengthy and includes a handful of insights, notably including that the agency expects there to be almost ten times as many electric vehicles (EVs) on the road by 2030 with the current path of global policies.

The report looked at inputs for three potential scenarios based on the Global Energy Climate (GEC) model: the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), looking at currently in-place policies sector by sector and country by country; the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), which assumes that government and industry climate commitments are met in full and on time; and the Net-Zero Emissions (NZE) by 2050 Scenario, which looks at a specific emissions trajectory set to keep the temperature increases below 1.5 degrees Celsius.

You can see the IEA’s definitions and objectives for looking at each model scenario below.

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Credit: IEA | World Energy Outlook 2023

According to the report’s STEPS scenario, EVs comprise roughly 15 percent of car sales globally and are expected to increase to 40 percent by 2030. In addition to the increase in EVs, the agency expects renewable energy to make up 50 percent of the global electricity mix by 2030, jumping from around 30 percent today.

The agency also says that, for the first time ever, it can see a path to peak demand for coal, oil and natural gas within this decade, and it expects global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to peak by 2025.

Fossil fuel market share is also expected to drop to 73 percent by 2030 after floating at about 80 percent for the past few decades.

The agency is also seeing growth in investments in renewable energy, including the adoption of EVs, solar PV generation, and heat pumps and other electric heating equipment being sold more than fossil fuel boilers on a global scale.

Interestingly, the IEA notes that, for every $1 invested in fossil fuels five years ago, $1 also went to clean energy. In 2023, however, for every $1 invested into fossil fuels, there is $1.80 going toward renewable energy, depicting the continued investment increases in clean energy.

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You can see the IEA’s chart on investment flows below, showing a decrease in oil demand and increases to low-emissions power sources.

Credit: IEA | World Energy Outlook 2023

Although the report also shows a continued increase in renewable energy investments, the IEA says that stronger policies are still needed if the world hopes to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. At the current rate, the IEA says global emissions are high enough to push global average temperatures upward by roughly 2.4 degrees Celsius within this century.

In response to a post with the investment flow chart on X, Tesla Senior Vice President of Powertrain and Energy Drew Baglino also weighed in, emphasizing that there is still more to be done to help transition the world to renewables.

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The report touches on several other renewable energy topics, including current geopolitical conflicts going on in the Middle East that could be poised to threaten the security of world energy systems.

You can watch the full live stream of the World Energy Outlook below,

You can also read the IEA’s full press release on this year’s World Energy Outlook here or watch the agency’s full live stream detailing the report below, complete with a Q&A with the agency’s directors.

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What are your thoughts? Let me know at zach@teslarati.com, find me on X at @zacharyvisconti, or send your tips to us at tips@teslarati.com.

Zach is a renewable energy reporter who has been covering electric vehicles since 2020. He grew up in Fremont, California, and he currently lives in Colorado. His work has appeared in the Chicago Tribune, KRON4 San Francisco, FOX31 Denver, InsideEVs, CleanTechnica, and many other publications. When he isn't covering Tesla or other EV companies, you can find him writing and performing music, drinking a good cup of coffee, or hanging out with his cats, Banks and Freddie. Reach out at zach@teslarati.com, find him on X at @zacharyvisconti, or send us tips at tips@teslarati.com.

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Celebrating SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy Tesla Roadster launch, seven years later (Op-Ed)

Seven years later, the question is no longer “What if this works?” It’s “How far does this go?”

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SpaceX's first Falcon Heavy launch also happened to be a strategic and successful test of Falcon upper stage coast capabilities. (SpaceX)

When Falcon Heavy lifted off in February 2018 with Elon Musk’s personal Tesla Roadster as its payload, SpaceX was at a much different place. So was Tesla. It was unclear whether Falcon Heavy was feasible at all, and Tesla was in the depths of Model 3 production hell.

At the time, Tesla’s market capitalization hovered around $55–60 billion, an amount critics argued was already grossly overvalued. SpaceX, on the other hand, was an aggressive private launch provider known for taking risks that traditional aerospace companies avoided.

The Roadster launch was bold by design. Falcon Heavy’s maiden mission carried no paying payload, no government satellite, just a car drifting past Earth with David Bowie playing in the background. To many, it looked like a stunt. For Elon Musk and the SpaceX team, it was a bold statement: there should be some things in the world that simply inspire people.

Inspire it did, and seven years later, SpaceX and Tesla’s results speak for themselves.

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Credit: SpaceX

Today, Tesla is the world’s most valuable automaker, with a market capitalization of roughly $1.54 trillion. The Model Y has become the best-selling car in the world by volume for three consecutive years, a scenario that would have sounded insane in 2018. Tesla has also pushed autonomy to a point where its vehicles can navigate complex real-world environments using vision alone.

And then there is Optimus. What began as a literal man in a suit has evolved into a humanoid robot program that Musk now describes as potential Von Neumann machines: systems capable of building civilizations beyond Earth. Whether that vision takes decades or less, one thing is evident: Tesla is no longer just a car company. It is positioning itself at the intersection of AI, robotics, and manufacturing.

SpaceX’s trajectory has been just as dramatic.

The Falcon 9 has become the undisputed workhorse of the global launch industry, having completed more than 600 missions to date. Of those, SpaceX has successfully landed a Falcon booster more than 560 times. The Falcon 9 flies more often than all other active launch vehicles combined, routinely lifting off multiple times per week.

Falcon Heavy successfully clears the tower after its maiden launch, February 6, 2018. (Tom Cross)

Falcon 9 has ferried astronauts to and from the International Space Station via Crew Dragon, restored U.S. human spaceflight capability, and even stepped in to safely return NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams when circumstances demanded it.

Starlink, once a controversial idea, now dominates the satellite communications industry, providing broadband connectivity across the globe and reshaping how space-based networks are deployed. SpaceX itself, following its merger with xAI, is now valued at roughly $1.25 trillion and is widely expected to pursue what could become the largest IPO in history.

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And then there is Starship, Elon Musk’s fully reusable launch system designed not just to reach orbit, but to make humans multiplanetary. In 2018, the idea was still aspirational. Today, it is under active development, flight-tested in public view, and central to NASA’s future lunar plans.

In hindsight, Falcon Heavy’s maiden flight with Elon Musk’s personal Tesla Roadster was never really about a car in space. It was a signal that SpaceX and Tesla were willing to think bigger, move faster, and accept risks others wouldn’t.

The Roadster is still out there, orbiting the Sun. Seven years later, the question is no longer “What if this works?” It’s “How far does this go?”

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Energy

Tesla launches Cybertruck vehicle-to-grid program in Texas

The initiative was announced by the official Tesla Energy account on social media platform X.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has launched a vehicle-to-grid (V2G) program in Texas, allowing eligible Cybertruck owners to send energy back to the grid during high-demand events and receive compensation on their utility bills. 

The initiative, dubbed Powershare Grid Support, was announced by the official Tesla Energy account on social media platform X.

Texas’ Cybertruck V2G program

In its post on X, Tesla Energy confirmed that vehicle-to-grid functionality is “coming soon,” starting with select Texas markets. Under the new Powershare Grid Support program, owners of the Cybertruck equipped with Powershare home backup hardware can opt in through the Tesla app and participate in short-notice grid stress events.

During these events, the Cybertruck automatically discharges excess energy back to the grid, supporting local utilities such as CenterPoint Energy and Oncor. In return, participants receive compensation in the form of bill credits. Tesla noted that the program is currently invitation-only as part of an early adopter rollout.

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The launch builds on the Cybertruck’s existing Powershare capability, which allows the vehicle to provide up to 11.5 kW of power for home backup. Tesla added that the program is expected to expand to California next, with eligibility tied to utilities such as PG&E, SCE, and SDG&E.

Powershare Grid Support

To participate in Texas, Cybertruck owners must live in areas served by CenterPoint Energy or Oncor, have Powershare equipment installed, enroll in the Tesla Electric Drive plan, and opt in through the Tesla app. Once enrolled, vehicles would be able to contribute power during high-demand events, helping stabilize the grid.

Tesla noted that events may occur with little notice, so participants are encouraged to keep their Cybertrucks plugged in when at home and to manage their discharge limits based on personal needs. Compensation varies depending on the electricity plan, similar to how Powerwall owners in some regions have earned substantial credits by participating in Virtual Power Plant (VPP) programs.

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Samsung nears Tesla AI chip ramp with early approval at TX factory

This marks a key step towards the tech giant’s production of Tesla’s next-generation AI5 chips in the United States.

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Image used with permission for Teslarati. (Credit: Tom Cross)

Samsung has received temporary approval to begin limited operations at its semiconductor plant in Taylor, Texas.

This marks a key step towards the tech giant’s production of Tesla’s next-generation AI5 chips in the United States.

Samsung clears early operations hurdle

As noted in a report from Korea JoongAng Daily, Samsung Electronics has secured temporary certificates of occupancy (TCOs) for a portion of its semiconductor facility in Taylor. This should allow the facility to start operations ahead of full completion later this year.

City officials confirmed that approximately 88,000 square feet of Samsung’s Fab 1 building has received temporary approval, with additional areas expected to follow. The overall timeline for permitting the remaining sections has not yet been finalized.

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Samsung’s Taylor facility is expected to manufacture Tesla’s AI5 chips once mass production begins in the second half of the year. The facility is also expected to produce Tesla’s upcoming AI6 chips. 

Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently stated that the design for AI5 is nearly complete, and the development of AI6 is already underway. Musk has previously outlined an aggressive roadmap targeting nine-month design cycles for successive generations of its AI chips.

Samsung’s U.S. expansion

Construction at the Taylor site remains on schedule. Reports indicate Samsung plans to begin testing extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment next month, a critical step for producing advanced 2-nanometer semiconductors.

Samsung is expected to complete 6 million square feet of floor space at the site by the end of this year, with an additional 1 million square feet planned by 2028. The full campus spans more than 1,200 acres.

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Beyond Tesla, Samsung Foundry is also pursuing additional U.S. customers as demand for AI and high-performance computing chips accelerates. Company executives have stated that Samsung is looking to achieve more than 130% growth in 2-nanometer chip orders this year.

One of Samsung’s biggest rivals, TSMC, is also looking to expand its footprint in the United States, with reports suggesting that the company is considering expanding its Arizona facility to as many as 11 total plants. TSMC is also expected to produce Tesla’s AI5 chips. 

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