Italian luxury sports car maker Ferrari (NYSE: RACE) is Morgan Stanley’s pick as the firm’s “favorite electric vehicle stock for 2022,” according to a note released by the Autos and Shared Mobility team. Led by analysts Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley’s team of stock professionals chose Ferrari over other high-powered EV stock favorites, including Rivian and Tesla, both of which are widely considered the most promising and overall leader of the EV industry, respectively.
“Ferrari was listed as “Our new ‘Top Pick’ (replacing GM),” Morgan Stanley wrote in a note to investors released this morning. “Can justify 100% of the company’s market cap with ‘fine-art’ ICE business…leaving [for] the EV business (currently in skunkworks) for free. This makes RACE our favorite EV stock for 2022.” Ferrari was listed ahead of Rivian, which is ranked 2nd on Morgan Stanley’s list, and Tesla, which sits in fourth, behind Freyr, a Norway-based company in the business of manufacturing battery cells with sustainable energy.
US Auto Stock Rankings for FY 22 | Morgan Stanley/Adam Jonas
Ferrari is the new ‘Top Pick’ ?? $RACE$GM$RIVN$TSLA pic.twitter.com/KRcbjahHOb
— David Tayar (@davidtayar5) January 4, 2022
-->Morgan Stanley’s outlook on Ferrari is interesting, especially as the company has not technically made any formal statement regarding plans to transition to a full lineup of electric cars. The Italian company does have plans to launch its first all-electric model in 2025, company boss John Elkann said in April 2021. Ferrari’s commercial boss, Enrico Galliera, said it would not produce any BEV models until EV tech would allow the company to “produce a car that fits with our position.” Galliera said, “If we bring in new technology, then we need to bring something new to the market. That’s how Ferrari has always worked with new technology. The evolution of new technology is 100% in the DNA of Ferrari.”
The company’s position regarding EVs was only solidified in 2021, as Elkann stated during the Ferrari Q2 Earnings Call that executives welcomed regulations that would restrict the widespread production of gas-powered engines. However, there could be a substantial wait for Ferrari to make a full-fledged shift to EVs, as Elkann added, “… we’ll have changes within the energy supply, which could lead to having alternatives, for example, e-fuels or hydrogen. But that is really 2030, 2040, and most likely midpoint 2035, where we’ll see this happening. What we want to make sure is to be able to use the technologies available, which today are hybrid going to electric and exploiting those to the fullest and in the best way possible.”
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Morgan Stanley placed an “Overweight” rating on Ferrari with a $350 price target. Ferrari shares were trading at $235.10 at the time of writing.
Interestingly, Rivian and Tesla were subsided by Morgan Stanley’s note. Rivian began deliveries of its first EV, the R1T pickup truck, in late October. Morgan Stanley’s note indicates that Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) is “The One” for your portfolio, based on “a clean-sheet strategy with deterministic capital (raised ~$25bn) focused on adventure and commercial fleets.” Analysts stated that 2022 will be a tumultuous year for the automaker’s stock as it attempts to ramp manufacturing. Rivian will break ground on its second U.S. facility during Summer 2022. The new plant will be located near Atlanta, Georgia.
-->Rivian was given an “Overweight” rating with a $147 price target. Shares were trading at $100.65 at the time of writing.
Meanwhile, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is ranked as the fourth-best EV stock for 2022. “While Tesla is not our top EV pick, it’s arguably our most ‘important’ stock pick. Not owning Tesla means not owning the one company that could make all your other EV names obsolete. A big 4Q delivery beat is just the opening act. Gigapress and structural pack come to life in 2022.”
Tesla will also have Gigafactory Berlin and Gigafactory Texas coming to life this year, which could expand the production output by 1 million units when coupled with potential expansions at Fremont and Gigafactory Shanghai. Tesla came just shy of the 1 million unit mark that many thought the company would reach this year. However, the automaker is still the most valuable car company in the world and is the sole reason for the EV movement in 2022.
Morgan Stanley gave Tesla an “Overweight” rating with a price target of $1,200. Shares were trading at $1,143 at the time of writing.
Disclosure: Joey Klender is a $TSLA Shareholder. He currently does not own any $RACE or $RIVN shares.
-->I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
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When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
-->Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
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