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DeepSpace: Firefly set for smallsat industry’s second place trophy, Rocket Lab leads the pack

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This is a free preview of DeepSpace, Teslarati’s new member-only weekly newsletter. Each week, I’ll be taking a deep-dive into the most exciting developments in commercial space, from satellites and rockets to everything in between. Sign up for Teslarati’s newsletters here to receive a preview of our membership program.

In the race to a field dedicated smallsat launch vehicles, New Zealand startup Rocket Lab has already won first place, a fact that has been discussed several times in past Deep Space issues. After completing its first launch of 2019 on March 28th, Rocket Lab’s Electron rocket is ready for another mission as early as May 4th, a good sign for the company’s planned monthly launch cadence.

Despite Rocket Lab’s major success, there is plenty of room for additional competitors and/or complementary vehicles. Electron’s maximum payload hovers around ~225 kg (500 lb) to low Earth orbit (LEO), limiting its usefulness for any payloads that are larger than truly tiny satellites or in need of higher orbits. Also discussed on DeepSpace, there are 10+ serious startups with funding and hardware in work attempting to build said smallsat launch vehicles, ranging from the extremely tiny (Vector: 60 kg to LEO) to much larger rockets from companies like Relativity, ABL Space, and more. Firefly Space, however, is the startup that has arguably broken away from the pack in the last few months, firmly setting itself up to be second in line behind Rocket Lab.

Build, test, qualify


  • Firefly’s major leaps forward came in December 2018 and then April 2019, both related to testing the completed upper stage of the company’s Alpha rocket.
  • In December, the upper stage ignited for the first time. In April, the same upper stage successfully performed a mission-duration static fire that lasted a full 300 seconds (five minutes), the same length required for a rocket to reach orbit after separating from Alpha’s first stage.
    • For any launch vehicle development program, the first successful mission-duration test fire of an integrated rocket stage is arguably one of the most important milestones, second only to the same hardware’s inaugural launch.

  • Simultaneously, Firefly began integrated testing of the thrust section and Reaver engines that will be the basis of Alpha’s first stage. The rocket’s Lightning second stage engine has been tested extensively at this point in development, although the stage’s lone engine produces a maximum of ~70 kN (~16,000 lbf) of thrust.
    • The booster’s four Reaver engines will each produce ~170 kN (55,000 lbf) of thrust, around three times as much as Lightning. Alpha’s second stage is critical, but its first stage is arguably far more complex.
    • Despite the relative power differential, it’s still worth noting that Alpha’s entire first stage (736 kN/166,000 lbf) will be significantly less powerful than a single one of Falcon 9’s nine Merlin 1D engines (941 kN/212,000 lbf).
  • Although Alpha is far smaller than rockets like Falcon 9 or Atlas V, it will nominally be capable of launching 1000 kg to an altitude of 200 km (LEO) or ~650 kg to a 500-km sun-synchronous orbit (SSO). This translates to around 4.2X the performance of Rocket Lab’s Electron at 2.5X the cost per launch ($15M vs $6M).
    • Assuming no payload capacity is wasted, Alpha could thus be almost 50% cheaper than Electron when judged by cost per kilogram to orbit.
    • Of course, this comparison ignores the fact that Firefly will have to far more heavily rely on booking co-passenger satellites to keep Alpha launch prices competitive with Electron.
    • If exactly 1000kg or 630kg of cargo can’t be booked each launch, the expendable Alpha’s $15M launch cost will be distributed over less payload, raising costs for each customer. In other words, the competitive advantages of Alpha are almost entirely associated with its ability to launch payloads outside of Electron’s capabilities, as are its potential weaknesses.

Firefly Alpha’s upper stage qualification article (top) and a comparison of a variety of launch vehicles. (Teslarati)

The sweet spot

  • In theory, Firefly Alpha’s could find itself in a relatively sweet spot, where the rocket’s launch costs are not so high that dedicated rideshare missions become intractable (i.e. Spaceflight’s SSO-A launch on Falcon 9) but its payload performance is still good enough to provide access to a huge swath of the space launch market.
  • Firefly also has plans to develop a heavier launch vehicle based on Alpha, known as Beta. Conceptually equivalent to SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy, Beta would use three Alpha boosters and a significantly upgraded second stage and would be able to launch 4000 kg to LEO or 3000 kg to SSO.
  • Regardless of Firefly’s grander aspirations, Alpha is poised to capitalize on the simple fact that it will be the second commercially viable smallsat launch vehicle to begin operations. Alpha’s first orbital launch attempt could occur as early as December 2019, although slips into early 2020 are to be expected.
    • At that point, Rocket Lab’s Electron will be the only serious competition on the market. Relativity’s Terran and ABL Space’s RS-1 rockets plan to offer a competitive ~1250 kg to LEO or ~900 kg to SSO, but their launch debuts are tentatively scheduled no earlier than late 2020.
    • If Alpha’s development continues smoothly, Firefly could easily have a solid 12-month head start over its similarly-sized competitors,
  • Up next for Alpha is a similar campaign of tests focused on the first integrated booster, including tests fires and an eventual mission-duration qualification test.

Mission Updates 

  • SpaceX’s CRS-17 Cargo Dragon resupply mission has slipped an additional four days from April 30th to May 3rd (3:11 am EDT, 07:11 UTC) after the International Space Station (ISS) began suffering serious (but non-threatening) electrical issues. Additional launch delays could follow if the issue is not resolved in the next few days.
    • The first operational Starlink launch remains firmly on track for NET mid-May. According to SpaceX, all Flight 1 satellites are already in Florida, while the FCC approved the company’s modified constellation license – permitting Starlink operations after launch – on April 26th.
    • Due to CRS-17’s launch delays, the availability of SpaceX’s LC-40 pad will now likely be the main limiting factor for the Starlink-1 launch date.
  • SpaceX’s second West Coast launch of 2019 – carrying Canada’s Radarsat Constellation – is now expected to occur no earlier than mid-June and will reuse Falcon 9 B1051.
  • SpaceX’s launch of Spacecom’s Amos-17 spacecraft is now scheduled no earlier than July. Falcon Heavy Flight 3 is tentatively scheduled for launch as early as June 22 – all three boosters should be on site in Florida within the next week or two.

Photo of the Week:

(SpaceX)

The third Falcon Heavy center core – believed to be B1057 – was spotted eastbound in Arizona on April 16th. On April 26th, SpaceX confirmed that the booster completed its acceptance static fire test at the company’s McGregor, TX facilities, a sure sign that all of Falcon Heavy Flight 3’s major components should be in Florida within the next few weeks.

We’ll see you next week.

Not a member? Become a member today to receive DeepSpace each week! 

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk’s Boring Company begins Tesla FSD testing in Las Vegas tunnels

The update was shared by Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) CEO Steve Hill.

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Credit: The Boring Company/X

The Boring Company has started testing Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) system in its Las Vegas tunnels. 

The update was shared by Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) CEO Steve Hill in a comment to Fortune.

Controlled FSD testing

In his comments, Hill noted that Tesla’s FSD tests in the Boring Company’s underground tunnels in Las Vegas have been going on for months. However, the full-self driving Teslas have reportedly not been carrying passengers during the tests. Interestingly enough, Hill noted that the FSD-driven vehicles have not had any incidents in the Boring Company tunnels yet, though safety drivers have been required to intervene “periodically.”

Hill further noted that the self-driving Teslas have found some spots that seem quite difficult in the underground tunnels system. The LVCVA CEO added that the rock walls of the Boring Company tunnels and their colorful lighting have created some “interesting but odd lighting” for FSD. That being said, Hill noted that the FSD tests are ongoing, though the LVCVA will likely be a consultant before the self-driving vehicles’ safety drivers are removed. 

The executive, however, noted that it will only be a matter of time before the Teslas in Las Vegas’ Boring Company tunnels are operating without a driver. “Sooner or later, this is going to be autonomous,” Hill said.

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Vegas Loop updates

The Boring Company’s underground transit system has been operating beneath the Las Vegas Convention Center for about four years. While the network is slated for expansion across more of the city, it currently connects the convention grounds with a handful of nearby hotels. Updates from the Boring Company’s official social media account on X suggests that tunneling is underway across other stops in Las Vegas.

As per the Boring Company on its official website, the greater Vegas Loop, when completed, will have 104 stations across 68 miles of tunnels. This should allow the underground system to serve an estimated 90,000 passengers per hour. It will also be able to connect key locations across the city, such as Harry Reid International Airport, Allegiant Stadium, and downtown.

While the Vegas Loop is nowhere near complete, Hill noted that the system is already well appreciated by residents and visitors. As per the LVCVA CEO, the underground transport system is the “highest rated feature we have” at the Convention Center.  “People love it,” he said, adding that the only reason the tunnels are not coming faster is due to holdups with permits. “We’re holding them back. They’re not holding us back,” he stated.

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Tesla appears to have teased a long-awaited Model Y trim for a Friday launch

The company posted it with its Europe & Middle East account, and it appears to be a Model Y Performance, which has been spotted testing at the famed Nurburgring in Germany.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla appears to have teased a long-awaited Model Y trim for a launch on Friday.

The company posted it with its Europe & Middle East account, and it appears to be a Model Y Performance, which has been spotted testing at the famed Nurburgring in Germany.

The Model Y Performance became a big-time hit after it packed the family-style interior with lightning-fast acceleration, speed, and handling.

As Tesla transitioned the Model Y into the updated “Juniper” design, the company took its time to create an even better vehicle with the new Performance configuration.

It has surely taken its time, but the vehicle appears to have undergone some exterior changes to enhance aerodynamics, handling, and overall performance.

We recently went into what was different about the test units spotted at Nurburgring in an article, but we’ll also list them here:

  • New 21″ wheels
  • All black headliner, a big change that was included in the Model Y L, the first time a Model Y has had that option
  • Updated brakes
  • Bucket seats that appear to be similar to the new Model Y L in China
  • New Carbon Fiber Spoiler
  • Performance Badging
  • Changes to both the front and rear bumper
  • Suspension with Adaptive Dampers

Tesla Model Y Performance zips around Nurburgring with new features

It does not seem like there’s much else it could be, but it is important to note that Tesla has been developing a handful of affordable models. There is a possibility that Tesla could launch one of these on Friday, but it seems unlikely.

The affordable models will likely be coming to the United States or China before they would in Europe.

They would be developed at Gigafactory Texas or Gigafactory Shanghai. The company stated in its Q2 Earnings Shareholder Deck that it had continued to expand its vehicle offerings and successfully manufactured the first builds of a more affordable model in June.

Volume production is planned for the second half of 2025.

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Elon Musk

SpaceX Starship Flight 10 was so successful, it’s breaking the anti-Musk narrative

That’s all the proof one could need about the undeniable success of Starship Flight 10.

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Credit: Elon Musk/X

Starship Flight 10 was a huge success for SpaceX. When both the Super Heavy booster and the Starship Upper Stage successfully landed on their designated splashdown zones, the space community was celebrating.

The largest and most powerful rocket in the world had successfully completed its tenth test flight. And this time around, there were no rapid unscheduled disassemblies during the mission.

As per SpaceX in a statement following Flight 10, “every major objective was met, providing critical data to inform designs of the next generation Starship and Super Heavy.” The private space enterprise also stated that Flight 10 provided valuable data by stressing the limits of Starship’s capabilities.

With all of Flight 10’s mission objectives met, one would think that it would be pretty easy to cover the story of Starship’s successful tenth test flight. But that’s where one would be wrong, because Elon Musk companies, whether it be Tesla or SpaceX or xAI, tend to attract negative slant from mainstream media outlets.

This was in full force with Starship Flight 10’s coverage. Take the BBC’s Facebook post about the fight test, which read “Elon Musk’s giant rocket, earmarked for use in a 2027 mission to the Moon, has had multiple catastrophic failures in previous launches.” CNN was more direct with its slant, writing “SpaceX’s troubled Starship prototype pulls off successful flight after months of explosive mishaps” on its headline. 

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While some media outlets evidently adopted a negative slant towards Starship’s Flight 10 results, several other media sources actually published surprisingly positive articles about the successful test flight. The most notable of which is arguably the New York Times, which featured a headline that read “SpaceX’s Giant Mars Rocket Completes Nearly Flawless Test Flight.” Fox News also ran with a notably positive headline that read “SpaceX succeeds at third Starship test flight attempt after multiple scrubs.”

Having covered Elon Musk-related companies for the better part of a decade now, I have learned that mainstream coverage of any of his companies tends to be sprinkled with varying degrees of negative slant. The reasons behind this may never be fully explained, but it is just the way things are. This is why, when milestones such as Starship’s Flight 10 actually happen and mainstream media coverage becomes somewhat objective, I can’t help but be amazed. 

After all, it takes one heck of a company led by one heck of a leader to force objectivity on an entity that has proven subjective over the years. And that, if any, is all the proof one could need about the undeniable success of Starship Flight 10.

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