News

DeepSpace: Firefly set for smallsat industry’s second place trophy, Rocket Lab leads the pack

Published

6 years ago

May 1, 2019

This is a free preview of DeepSpace, Teslarati’s new member-only weekly newsletter. Each week, I’ll be taking a deep-dive into the most exciting developments in commercial space, from satellites and rockets to everything in between. Sign up for Teslarati’s newsletters here to receive a preview of our membership program.

In the race to a field dedicated smallsat launch vehicles, New Zealand startup Rocket Lab has already won first place, a fact that has been discussed several times in past Deep Space issues. After completing its first launch of 2019 on March 28th, Rocket Lab’s Electron rocket is ready for another mission as early as May 4th, a good sign for the company’s planned monthly launch cadence.

Despite Rocket Lab’s major success, there is plenty of room for additional competitors and/or complementary vehicles. Electron’s maximum payload hovers around ~225 kg (500 lb) to low Earth orbit (LEO), limiting its usefulness for any payloads that are larger than truly tiny satellites or in need of higher orbits. Also discussed on DeepSpace, there are 10+ serious startups with funding and hardware in work attempting to build said smallsat launch vehicles, ranging from the extremely tiny (Vector: 60 kg to LEO) to much larger rockets from companies like Relativity, ABL Space, and more. Firefly Space, however, is the startup that has arguably broken away from the pack in the last few months, firmly setting itself up to be second in line behind Rocket Lab.

Build, test, qualify

Firefly’s major leaps forward came in December 2018 and then April 2019, both related to testing the completed upper stage of the company’s Alpha rocket.
In December, the upper stage ignited for the first time. In April, the same upper stage successfully performed a mission-duration static fire that lasted a full 300 seconds (five minutes), the same length required for a rocket to reach orbit after separating from Alpha’s first stage.
- For any launch vehicle development program, the first successful mission-duration test fire of an integrated rocket stage is arguably one of the most important milestones, second only to the same hardware’s inaugural launch.

Simultaneously, Firefly began integrated testing of the thrust section and Reaver engines that will be the basis of Alpha’s first stage. The rocket’s Lightning second stage engine has been tested extensively at this point in development, although the stage’s lone engine produces a maximum of ~70 kN (~16,000 lbf) of thrust.
- The booster’s four Reaver engines will each produce ~170 kN (55,000 lbf) of thrust, around three times as much as Lightning. Alpha’s second stage is critical, but its first stage is arguably far more complex.
- Despite the relative power differential, it’s still worth noting that Alpha’s entire first stage (736 kN/166,000 lbf) will be significantly less powerful than a single one of Falcon 9’s nine Merlin 1D engines (941 kN/212,000 lbf).
Although Alpha is far smaller than rockets like Falcon 9 or Atlas V, it will nominally be capable of launching 1000 kg to an altitude of 200 km (LEO) or ~650 kg to a 500-km sun-synchronous orbit (SSO). This translates to around 4.2X the performance of Rocket Lab’s Electron at 2.5X the cost per launch ($15M vs $6M).
- Assuming no payload capacity is wasted, Alpha could thus be almost 50% cheaper than Electron when judged by cost per kilogram to orbit.
- Of course, this comparison ignores the fact that Firefly will have to far more heavily rely on booking co-passenger satellites to keep Alpha launch prices competitive with Electron.
- If exactly 1000kg or 630kg of cargo can’t be booked each launch, the expendable Alpha’s $15M launch cost will be distributed over less payload, raising costs for each customer. In other words, the competitive advantages of Alpha are almost entirely associated with its ability to launch payloads outside of Electron’s capabilities, as are its potential weaknesses.

Firefly Alpha’s upper stage qualification article (top) and a comparison of a variety of launch vehicles. (Teslarati)

The sweet spot

In theory, Firefly Alpha’s could find itself in a relatively sweet spot, where the rocket’s launch costs are not so high that dedicated rideshare missions become intractable (i.e. Spaceflight’s SSO-A launch on Falcon 9) but its payload performance is still good enough to provide access to a huge swath of the space launch market.
Firefly also has plans to develop a heavier launch vehicle based on Alpha, known as Beta. Conceptually equivalent to SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy, Beta would use three Alpha boosters and a significantly upgraded second stage and would be able to launch 4000 kg to LEO or 3000 kg to SSO.
Regardless of Firefly’s grander aspirations, Alpha is poised to capitalize on the simple fact that it will be the second commercially viable smallsat launch vehicle to begin operations. Alpha’s first orbital launch attempt could occur as early as December 2019, although slips into early 2020 are to be expected.
- At that point, Rocket Lab’s Electron will be the only serious competition on the market. Relativity’s Terran and ABL Space’s RS-1 rockets plan to offer a competitive ~1250 kg to LEO or ~900 kg to SSO, but their launch debuts are tentatively scheduled no earlier than late 2020.
- If Alpha’s development continues smoothly, Firefly could easily have a solid 12-month head start over its similarly-sized competitors,
Up next for Alpha is a similar campaign of tests focused on the first integrated booster, including tests fires and an eventual mission-duration qualification test.

Mission Updates

SpaceX’s CRS-17 Cargo Dragon resupply mission has slipped an additional four days from April 30th to May 3rd (3:11 am EDT, 07:11 UTC) after the International Space Station (ISS) began suffering serious (but non-threatening) electrical issues. Additional launch delays could follow if the issue is not resolved in the next few days.
- The first operational Starlink launch remains firmly on track for NET mid-May. According to SpaceX, all Flight 1 satellites are already in Florida, while the FCC approved the company’s modified constellation license – permitting Starlink operations after launch – on April 26th.
- Due to CRS-17’s launch delays, the availability of SpaceX’s LC-40 pad will now likely be the main limiting factor for the Starlink-1 launch date.
SpaceX’s second West Coast launch of 2019 – carrying Canada’s Radarsat Constellation – is now expected to occur no earlier than mid-June and will reuse Falcon 9 B1051.
SpaceX’s launch of Spacecom’s Amos-17 spacecraft is now scheduled no earlier than July. Falcon Heavy Flight 3 is tentatively scheduled for launch as early as June 22 – all three boosters should be on site in Florida within the next week or two.

Photo of the Week:

(SpaceX)

The third Falcon Heavy center core – believed to be B1057 – was spotted eastbound in Arizona on April 16th. On April 26th, SpaceX confirmed that the booster completed its acceptance static fire test at the company’s McGregor, TX facilities, a sure sign that all of Falcon Heavy Flight 3’s major components should be in Florida within the next few weeks.

We’ll see you next week.

Not a member? Become a member today to receive DeepSpace each week!

Up Next

Tesla’s median employee pay vs. the median American in 2018 is surprising

Don't Miss

Tesla opens Model 3 RHD orders in UK, deliveries set for June

Eric Ralph

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

Comments

Elon Musk

Teslas will self-deliver to customers, Elon Musk says: here’s when

Teslas will soon drive themselves to customers, Elon Musk says

Published

4 hours ago

May 29, 2025

Joey Klender

Credit: Tesla

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has an extremely busy month for himself and his company in June if all goes according to plan.

Not only is Tesla planning to launch its Robotaxi platform in Austin, Texas, next month, but Musk is also now indicating that Teslas will self-deliver to customers in June as well.

Musk has said for some time that Tesla vehicles would soon be capable of driving to customers without a driver within the car. Initially, it seemed like the company would do this in the areas close to its U.S. factories – the Greater Austin, Texas, area, and potentially in Northern California’s Bay Area of San Francisco, where the company’s Fremont Factory operates.

Upon confirmation that Tesla has been testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin for the past several days, Musk brought forth a new detail that fans of the company will love to hear: Teslas will soon drive themselves to customers, eliminating the need for trips to the showroom for delivery.

How soon? Musk says next month:

For the past several days, Tesla has been testing self-driving Model Y cars (no one in driver’s seat) on Austin public streets with no incidents.
A month ahead of schedule.
Next month, first self-delivery from factory to customer.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 29, 2025

There is no doubt that the bigger news within Musk’s X post is that it is on track for the launch of the Robotaxi platform. Tesla has been touting its prowess in self-driving for several years. As other companies have executed, Tesla has taken a more unorthodox approach by utilizing only cameras and being much more reserved with its rollout of driverless software.

While Full Self-Driving is consistently ranked at the top of the current Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS), it is not fully autonomous. That is set to change, and not only will it yield the results of what will hopefully be a successful Robotaxi fleet, but also a vehicle delivery process that makes buying a vehicle more convenient than it already is from Tesla, with no hassle, no dealership jargon, and no negotiating.

The launch of the Robotaxi platform is set for Austin on June 12, according to Bloomberg, where roughly 10 Model Y SUVs will make their way around the city initially. Tesla will expand as safety is proven, which is the utmost priority.

Musk also said later on X that people should be able to fly to Austin and hail a Robotaxi by the end of June.

Elon Musk

Tesla lands on date for Robotaxi launch in Austin: report

Tesla has reportedly landed on a tentative date to launch the Robotaxi platform in Austin.

Published

8 hours ago

May 29, 2025

Joey Klender

Credit: Tesla

Tesla has reportedly landed on a set date for its launch of the Robotaxi platform in Austin, Texas.

Bloomberg is reporting that Tesla has discussed June 12 internally, and there is still the potential for it to change.

The date comes after Tesla tested the driverless ride-sharing platform on public roads in Austin, and has been for several weeks. The report said that Tesla started doing it this week, and CEO Elon Musk confirmed on X by saying:

“For the past several days, Tesla has been testing self-driving Model Y cars (no one in driver’s seat) on Austin public streets with no incidents.”

The report indicates a person was in the vehicle, but not in the driver’s seat. Instead, a Tesla engineer sat in the passenger seat of a Model Y, “which drove autonomously with no remote operation.”

Tesla set for ‘golden age of autonomous’ as Robotaxi nears, ‘dark chapter’ ends: Wedbush

The testing has successfully gone on a month ahead of the company’s deadline of June 30.

Currently, Tesla’s plans for the initial rollout of the suite are extremely limited. There will only be ten vehicles at first, and the riders will be invited by the company. This is an effort that puts safety at the forefront of this trial period, and will expand as time goes on.

It could be sooner than expected, as Musk also said that anyone would likely be able to visit Austin and take a ride in the Robotaxi by the end of June.

For the past several days, Tesla has been testing self-driving Model Y cars (no one in driver’s seat) on Austin public streets with no incidents.
A month ahead of schedule.
Advertisement

Next month, first self-delivery from factory to customer.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 29, 2025

The report and subsequent announcement come after many media outlets reported Tesla was not testing Robotaxi in any capacity. Some had even considered the project a total failure even before the June launch date, a typical tone most media take with the company.

Tesla Robotaxi deemed a total failure by media — even though it hasn’t been released

Tesla has not been great at meeting its own timelines, but it has been adamant that it would reach this June deadline for several months.

Now that it appears Tesla is at an all-systems-go mentality for the Robotaxi launch, it will be interesting to see how quickly it can expand from its initial testing.

Shares are up just over 1.3 percent as of 10:30 a.m. on the East Coast. They are up 24 percent over the past 30 days, and down just 4.5 percent for the year so far.

The Robotaxi fleet will help to bolster Tesla’s position as a leader in autonomy, something it has already essentially achieved through its successful operation of the Supervised Full Self-Driving suite.

Elon Musk

Tesla investors demand 40-hour workweek from Elon Musk

Pension fund leaders push the Tesla board to require 40 hrs/wk from Elon Musk. Should Tesla enforce this? Or simply trust Musk?

Published

13 hours ago

May 29, 2025

Maria Merano

Wcamp9, CC BY 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Pension fund leaders with Tesla investments are urging the company’s board to mandate Elon Musk dedicate at least 40 hours per week to the electric vehicle maker, citing a looming crisis.

The group holds a combined 7.9 million TSLA shares and expressed alarm over Tesla’s challenges in a Wednesday letter to board chair Robyn Denholm.

“Tesla’s stock price volatility, declining sales, as well as disconcerting reports regarding the company’s human rights practices, and a plummeting global reputation are cause for serious concern,” the investors wrote.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-elon-musk-explains-25-percent-voting-share-tsla/

They attributed many issues to Musk’s external activities, including his role in the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The pension fund leaders criticized the board for failing to ensure Musk’s “full-time attention” on Tesla. The group includes the SOC Investment Group, the American Federation of Teachers, New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, and Oregon State Treasurer Elizabeth Steiner.

The investors’ letter comes as the Tesla board plans for Elon Musk’s next compensation plan, following the Delaware Court of Chancery’s 2023 ruling to rescind his $56 billion 2018 package. Besides a 40-hour workweek requirement, they also called for a clear succession plan and limits on directors’ external board commitments to strengthen governance. The letter highlighted concerns about board independence. Tesla recently added former Chipotle CFO Jack Hartung, who previously worked with Musk’s brother, Kimbal Musk, as a Tesla board member.

The group’s letter reveals where the position of some investors as Elon Musk forges ahead with Tesla’s future plans. Musk’s broader ambitions for Tesla were evident during the Q4 and FY 2023 earnings call, where he envisioned the company as an AI and robotics powerhouse with “truly immense capability and power.” He emphasized his desire for 25% voting control to maintain influence without complete control.

“You know, we’ve had a lot of challenges with Institutional Shareholder Services, ISS — I call them ISIS — and Glass Lewis, you know, which there’s a lot of activists that basically infiltrate those organizations and have strange ideas about what should be done,” Musk said.

As Musk plans to focus more on Tesla, alongside xAI and SpaceX, the investors’ demands underscore tensions between his expansive vision and shareholder expectations. With Tesla navigating stock volatility and reputational challenges, the board faces pressure to align Musk’s leadership with the company’s long-term stability.