SpaceX
DeepSpace: A critical juncture for SpaceX, Blue Origin, ULA, other players

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A high-pressure competition between all four major US launch providers – SpaceX, ULA, Blue Origin, and Orbital ATK (now NGIS) – is about to head into its most critical stage, a period of 60 days allotted for interested parties to submit their completed proposals. According to the US Air Force (USAF), the final request for proposals (RFP) could come as early as March 29th, giving the four aforementioned companies until May 28th to complete their proposals.
All things considered, the growing pressure and some of the USAF’s strategy behind the program – known as Launch Service Procurement (LSP) Phase 2 – has raised significant questions that remain largely unanswered and lead to a few mild bouts of strife or unhappiness from contract competitors. Most notably, Blue Origin – having just won a USAF development contract worth $500M – has repeatedly requested that the USAF and Department of Defense (DoD) delay the RFP and contract awards until 2021, according to Space News’ Sandra Erwin. Meanwhile, a lack of clarification from the USAF means that it’s unclear whether the strategy behind launch contract awards (LSP) will end up contradicting or undermining a partially connected development program known as Launch Service Agreements (LSA) that saw the USAF award ~$2B to three providers (excluding SpaceX) between 2018 and 2024.
Battle of the Acronyms: LSP vs. LSA
- Recently rebranded by the US military as the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program, LSP Phase 1 and 2 and LSA are the latest major procurement initiatives begun under the Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) program, spun up in the 1990s to provide a firmer foundation for the commercial launch of military spacecraft after the 1986 Shuttle Challenger disaster pushed most satellites off of the platform.
- Phase 2 of the EELV program has been ongoing for several years and will culminate with the procurement of 25+ launch contracts (LSP) from two providers no earlier than 2020. The USAF’s Launch Service Agreements are also a major strategic feature of Phase 2, nominally seeing the military branch contribute major funding to assist in the development of three separate launch vehicles (New Glenn, Vulcan, and Omega) with the intention of ultimately certifying those rockets for EELV (now NSSL) launches.
- LSA also saw the USAF award several tens of millions to SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Aerojet Rocketdyne to develop capabilities centered around advanced, new rocket engines (BE-4, AR-1, and Raptor), but the latest phase of LSA is valued at least several times higher than its earlier engine-specific awards.
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- Oddly, the purpose of LSA was – at least on the cover – to effectively ensure that the Air Force had multiple (more than two) providers and thus preserve a healthy, competitive military launch market. A senior leader specifically stated that “the goal of [LSA] is to make sure [the US military has] a competitive industrial base.”
- Aside from an initial $181M awarded to Blue Origin, ULA, and Orbital ATK (now Northrop Grumman Innovation Systems, NGIS) in 2018 and 2019, the remaining funding – up to $320M for Blue Origin’s New Glenn, $610M for NGIS’ Omega, and $785M for ULA’s Vulcan – would be dispersed to each provider between 2020 and 2024.
- However, an odd and controversial bit of language behind the coming five-year launch services procurement (LSP) initiative would completely cut off funding to LSA awardees in the event that they fail to be awarded launches from the latest LSP.
- Additionally, the LSP awards are strictly meant – apparently very intentionally – to be distrubuted among two launch providers, despite a minimum at least four being able (SpaceX) or required (ULA, Blue, NGIS) to enter a bid.
- In other words, this guarantees that either one or two of the three LSA awardees would have the vast majority of their supposedly awarded development funding cut off after FY2020, four years early.
- Oddly, the purpose of LSA was – at least on the cover – to effectively ensure that the Air Force had multiple (more than two) providers and thus preserve a healthy, competitive military launch market. A senior leader specifically stated that “the goal of [LSA] is to make sure [the US military has] a competitive industrial base.”
- Despite continued protests from a number of stakeholders, the USAF has refused to budge from its decision to simultaneously A) create a duopoly, B) defeat the purpose of LSA awards, and C) mass-award ~25 launch contracts to two providers in 2020, anywhere from 12-24 months prior to the planned inaugural launches of all three LSA-funded rockets.
- Without cost-sharing development funds from the USAF and a chance of winning more than a handful of US military launch contracts between now and the late 2020s, it can be all but guaranteed that an LSA funding cutoff will either indefinitely pause or slow to a crawl a given provider’s development of their proposed launch vehicle.

A rocket and a hard place
- This sticky situation thus offers up a few potential ways that this badly-designed (or entirely dishonest) military launch development and procurement strategy will end up by the end of 2020. One way or another, the current strategy as it stands will end up providing two (or one, given that SpaceX will not receive LSA funding) companies with several years of development funding and at least five years of bountiful, guaranteed launch contracts.
- The four providers and two LSP slots available offer a set range of possible alternate realities, limited by political barriers that would, say, almost invariably prevent the USAF from severely harming ULA by cutting off the vast majority of the company’s only real source of income for 5+ years.
- ULA and SpaceX win: This maintains the status quo, wholly invalidating the point of using LSA funds to ensure “a competitive industrial base.” NGIS likely cancels/freezes all Omega development with no chance of competing in commercial markets. Blue Origin owner Jeff Bezos could significantly delay New Glenn’s readiness for military missions if he fails to invest an additional $500M in infrastructure. Likeliest result: a marginally competitive duopoly.
- ULA wins, SpaceX loses: Having just certified Falcon 9 – and nearly Falcon Heavy – for high-value military launches and awarded SpaceX a total of 10 launch contracts (9 yet to be completed), the USAF could effectively spit in SpaceX’s face and award ULA and Blue Origin or NGIS LSP’s 25+ launch contracts.
- It’s hard to exaggerate just how much of a slight this would be perceived as by SpaceX and its executives, CEO Elon Musk in particular. The USAF would be risking the creation of a major political enemy, one which has already demonstrated a willingness to take the federal government to court and win. The USAF/DoD would effectively be hedging their bets against an assumption that SpaceX’s nine present military launch contracts will sate the company and ensure that SpaceX indefinitely remains a certified EELV/NSSL provider.
- In this eventuality, either Blue Origin or NGIS would lose LSA funding and the prospect of almost any military launch contracts until the late 2020s. For NGIS, this would likely kill Omega.
- At the end of the day, it’s sadly conceivable that the USAF/DoD may end up awarding LSP contracts to ULA (effectively a politically-forced hand) and NGIS, the latter assuring Omega’s survival. The military would thus be assuming that the political fallout created with SpaceX and Blue Origin would not be enough to severely harm their relationships, while also assuming that their much stronger commercial prospects and independent funding sources would ensure that each provider remains certified and willing to compete for future NSSL/EELV launches.
Regardless of what happens, the contradictory ways the USAF/DoD have structured their LSA and LSP programs seems bizarrely intent on creating major headaches and potential problems where that could easily be avoided with extraordinarily simple changes, namely removing the inexplicable cap and allowing three or more companies to win some of the ~25 LSP launch contracts).
Mission Updates
- The second launch of Falcon Heavy – the rocket’s commercial debut – is still scheduled to occur as early as April 7th.
- After Falcon Heavy, Cargo Dragon’s CRS-17 resupply mission is firmly scheduled for April (April 25th), while the first dedicated Starlink launch is now NET May 2019.
Photo of the Week:

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk offered a glimpse of a 1650 Kelvin (2500ºF/1400ºC) test of Starship’s metallic heat shield, simulating mid-range temperatures such a shield’s windward side might experience during an orbital-velocity reentry.(c. Elon Musk/SpaceX)
News
SpaceX set to launch Axiom’s mission for diabetes research on the ISS
Axiom’s Ax-4 will test CGMs & insulin stability in microgravity—potentially reshaping diabetes care for Earth & future astronauts.

Axiom Space’s Ax-4 mission is set to launch on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. Ax-4 will advance diabetes research in microgravity, marking a milestone for astronaut health.
Axiom Space’s fourth crewed mission is scheduled to launch with SpaceX on May 29 from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The Ax-4 mission will carry a diverse crew and a record-breaking scientific payload to the International Space Station (ISS).
The Ax-4 crew is led by Axiom’s Peggy Whitson and includes Shubhanshu Shukla from India, Sławosz Uznański from the European Space Agency, and Tibor Kapu from Hungary. The mission represents firsts for India, Hungary, and Poland, with Uznański being Poland’s first astronaut in over 40 years.
Ax-4 will conduct nearly 60 science investigations from 31 countries during its two-week ISS stay. A key focus is the “Suite Ride” initiative, a collaboration with Burjeel Holdings to study diabetes management in microgravity.
“The effort marks a significant milestone in the long-term goal of supporting future astronauts with insulin-dependent diabetes (IDDM), a condition historically deemed disqualifying for spaceflight,” Axiom noted. The mission will test Continuous Glucose Monitors (CGMs) and insulin stability to assess their performance in space.
Axiom explained that testing the behavior of CGMs and insulin delivery technologies in microgravity and observing circadian rhythm disruption could help diabetes experts understand how CGMs and insulin pens can improve diabetes monitoring and care in remote or underserved areas on Earth. The research could benefit diabetes management in isolated regions like oil rigs or rural areas.
The mission’s findings on insulin exposure and CGM performance could pave the way for astronauts with diabetes to safely participate in spaceflight. As Axiom and SpaceX push boundaries, Ax-4’s diabetes research underscores the potential for space-based innovations to transform healthcare on Earth and beyond.
Elon Musk
EU considers SES to augment Starlink services
The EU considers funding SES to support Starlink. With MEO satellites already serving NATO, SES could be key in Europe’s space autonomy push.

European satellite company SES is negotiating with the European Union (EU) and other governments to complement SpaceX’s Starlink, as Europe seeks home-grown space-based communication solutions. The talks aim to bolster regional resilience amid growing concerns over reliance on foreign providers.
In March, the European Commission contacted SES and France’s Eutelsat to assess their potential role if American-based Starlink access for Ukraine was disrupted. The European Commission proposed funding EU-based satellite operators to support Kyiv. Ukraine is considering alternatives to Starlink over concerns about Elon Musk’s reliability.
Arthur De Liedekerke of Rasmussen Global warned, “Elon Musk is, in fact, the guardian of Ukraine’s connectivity on the battlefield. And that’s a strategic vulnerability.” However, SpaceX’s Starlink constellation is leagues ahead of any competition in the EU.
“Now the discussions are much more strategic in nature. They’re much more mid-term, long-term. And what we’re seeing is all of the European governments are serious about increasing their defense spending. There are alternatives, not to completely replace Starlink, that’s not possible, but to augment and complement Starlink,” SES CEO Adel Al-Saleh told Reuters.
SES operates about 70 satellites, including over 20 medium Earth orbit (MEO) units at 8,000 km. The company provides high-speed internet for government, military, and underserved areas. It plans to expand its MEO fleet to 100, enhancing secure communications for NATO and the Pentagon.
“The most significant demand (for us) is European nations investing in space, much more than what they did before,” Al-Saleh said.
Competition from Starlink, Amazon’s Kuiper, and China’s SpaceSail, with their extensive low-Earth orbit constellations, underscores Europe’s push for independence.
“It is not right to say they just want to avoid Starlink or the Chinese. They want to avoid being dependent on one or two providers. They want to have flexibility,” Al-Saleh noted.
SES’s discussions reflect Europe’s strategic shift toward diversified satellite networks, balancing reliance on Starlink with regional capabilities. As governments ramp up defense spending, SES aims to play a pivotal role in complementing global providers, ensuring robust connectivity for military and civilian needs across the continent.
News
Amazon launches Kuiper satellites; Can it rival Starlink?
With 27 satellites in orbit, Amazon kicks off its $10B plan to deliver global broadband. Can Bezos’ Kuiper take on Musk’s Starlink?

Amazon’s Project Kuiper launched its first 27 satellites on Monday, marking the start of a $10 billion effort that could compete with SpaceX’s Starlink with a global broadband internet network.
Amazon’s Kuiper satellites launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket from Cape Canaveral, Florida. Project Kuiper’s recent launch is the initial step toward deploying Amazon’s 3,236 satellites for low-Earth orbit connectivity. Amazon’s satellite launch was initially set for April 9 but was delayed due to bad weather.
Now that the Kuiper satellites have been launched, Amazon is expected to publicly confirm contact with the satellites from its mission operations center in Redmond, Washington. The company aims to start offering Kuiper services to customers later this year. Project Kuiper was unveiled in 2019 and targets consumers, businesses, and governments who need reliable internet service, similar to Starlink.
Amazon has a deadline from the U.S. Federal Communications Commission to deploy 1,618 satellites by mid-2026. Analysts suggest the company may require an extension to its Kuiper satellite deployment deadline due to the project’s year-long delay from its planned 2024 start.
United Launch Alliance could conduct up to five more Kuiper missions this year, according to ULA CEO Tory Bruno. Amazon noted in a 2020 FCC filing that Kuiper services could begin with 578 satellites, initially covering northern and southern regions.
Kuiper’s launch pits Amazon against SpaceX’s Starlink and telecom giants like AT&T and T-Mobile, with a focus on underserved rural areas.
“There’s an insatiable demand for the internet,” Amazon Executive Chairman Jeff Bezos told Reuters in January. “There’s room for lots of winners there. I predict Starlink will continue to be successful, and I predict Kuiper will be successful as well.”
Global interest in satellite alternatives is rising. Ukraine is exploring Starlink alternatives with the European Union (EU), driven by concerns over Elon Musk. Germany’s military, Bundeswehr, also plans its own constellation to ensure independent communications. However, like Amazon’s Kuiper Project, EU options lag behind Starlink.
Amazon’s consumer expertise and cloud computing infrastructure give Kuiper a competitive edge despite Starlink’s market lead. As Kuiper ramps up launches, its success could reshape broadband access while challenging SpaceX’s dominance in the satellite internet race.
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