SpaceX
DeepSpace: A critical juncture for SpaceX, Blue Origin, ULA, other players

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A high-pressure competition between all four major US launch providers – SpaceX, ULA, Blue Origin, and Orbital ATK (now NGIS) – is about to head into its most critical stage, a period of 60 days allotted for interested parties to submit their completed proposals. According to the US Air Force (USAF), the final request for proposals (RFP) could come as early as March 29th, giving the four aforementioned companies until May 28th to complete their proposals.
All things considered, the growing pressure and some of the USAF’s strategy behind the program – known as Launch Service Procurement (LSP) Phase 2 – has raised significant questions that remain largely unanswered and lead to a few mild bouts of strife or unhappiness from contract competitors. Most notably, Blue Origin – having just won a USAF development contract worth $500M – has repeatedly requested that the USAF and Department of Defense (DoD) delay the RFP and contract awards until 2021, according to Space News’ Sandra Erwin. Meanwhile, a lack of clarification from the USAF means that it’s unclear whether the strategy behind launch contract awards (LSP) will end up contradicting or undermining a partially connected development program known as Launch Service Agreements (LSA) that saw the USAF award ~$2B to three providers (excluding SpaceX) between 2018 and 2024.
Battle of the Acronyms: LSP vs. LSA
- Recently rebranded by the US military as the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program, LSP Phase 1 and 2 and LSA are the latest major procurement initiatives begun under the Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) program, spun up in the 1990s to provide a firmer foundation for the commercial launch of military spacecraft after the 1986 Shuttle Challenger disaster pushed most satellites off of the platform.
- Phase 2 of the EELV program has been ongoing for several years and will culminate with the procurement of 25+ launch contracts (LSP) from two providers no earlier than 2020. The USAF’s Launch Service Agreements are also a major strategic feature of Phase 2, nominally seeing the military branch contribute major funding to assist in the development of three separate launch vehicles (New Glenn, Vulcan, and Omega) with the intention of ultimately certifying those rockets for EELV (now NSSL) launches.
- LSA also saw the USAF award several tens of millions to SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Aerojet Rocketdyne to develop capabilities centered around advanced, new rocket engines (BE-4, AR-1, and Raptor), but the latest phase of LSA is valued at least several times higher than its earlier engine-specific awards.
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- Oddly, the purpose of LSA was – at least on the cover – to effectively ensure that the Air Force had multiple (more than two) providers and thus preserve a healthy, competitive military launch market. A senior leader specifically stated that “the goal of [LSA] is to make sure [the US military has] a competitive industrial base.”
- Aside from an initial $181M awarded to Blue Origin, ULA, and Orbital ATK (now Northrop Grumman Innovation Systems, NGIS) in 2018 and 2019, the remaining funding – up to $320M for Blue Origin’s New Glenn, $610M for NGIS’ Omega, and $785M for ULA’s Vulcan – would be dispersed to each provider between 2020 and 2024.
- However, an odd and controversial bit of language behind the coming five-year launch services procurement (LSP) initiative would completely cut off funding to LSA awardees in the event that they fail to be awarded launches from the latest LSP.
- Additionally, the LSP awards are strictly meant – apparently very intentionally – to be distrubuted among two launch providers, despite a minimum at least four being able (SpaceX) or required (ULA, Blue, NGIS) to enter a bid.
- In other words, this guarantees that either one or two of the three LSA awardees would have the vast majority of their supposedly awarded development funding cut off after FY2020, four years early.
- Oddly, the purpose of LSA was – at least on the cover – to effectively ensure that the Air Force had multiple (more than two) providers and thus preserve a healthy, competitive military launch market. A senior leader specifically stated that “the goal of [LSA] is to make sure [the US military has] a competitive industrial base.”
- Despite continued protests from a number of stakeholders, the USAF has refused to budge from its decision to simultaneously A) create a duopoly, B) defeat the purpose of LSA awards, and C) mass-award ~25 launch contracts to two providers in 2020, anywhere from 12-24 months prior to the planned inaugural launches of all three LSA-funded rockets.
- Without cost-sharing development funds from the USAF and a chance of winning more than a handful of US military launch contracts between now and the late 2020s, it can be all but guaranteed that an LSA funding cutoff will either indefinitely pause or slow to a crawl a given provider’s development of their proposed launch vehicle.

A rocket and a hard place
- This sticky situation thus offers up a few potential ways that this badly-designed (or entirely dishonest) military launch development and procurement strategy will end up by the end of 2020. One way or another, the current strategy as it stands will end up providing two (or one, given that SpaceX will not receive LSA funding) companies with several years of development funding and at least five years of bountiful, guaranteed launch contracts.
- The four providers and two LSP slots available offer a set range of possible alternate realities, limited by political barriers that would, say, almost invariably prevent the USAF from severely harming ULA by cutting off the vast majority of the company’s only real source of income for 5+ years.
- ULA and SpaceX win: This maintains the status quo, wholly invalidating the point of using LSA funds to ensure “a competitive industrial base.” NGIS likely cancels/freezes all Omega development with no chance of competing in commercial markets. Blue Origin owner Jeff Bezos could significantly delay New Glenn’s readiness for military missions if he fails to invest an additional $500M in infrastructure. Likeliest result: a marginally competitive duopoly.
- ULA wins, SpaceX loses: Having just certified Falcon 9 – and nearly Falcon Heavy – for high-value military launches and awarded SpaceX a total of 10 launch contracts (9 yet to be completed), the USAF could effectively spit in SpaceX’s face and award ULA and Blue Origin or NGIS LSP’s 25+ launch contracts.
- It’s hard to exaggerate just how much of a slight this would be perceived as by SpaceX and its executives, CEO Elon Musk in particular. The USAF would be risking the creation of a major political enemy, one which has already demonstrated a willingness to take the federal government to court and win. The USAF/DoD would effectively be hedging their bets against an assumption that SpaceX’s nine present military launch contracts will sate the company and ensure that SpaceX indefinitely remains a certified EELV/NSSL provider.
- In this eventuality, either Blue Origin or NGIS would lose LSA funding and the prospect of almost any military launch contracts until the late 2020s. For NGIS, this would likely kill Omega.
- At the end of the day, it’s sadly conceivable that the USAF/DoD may end up awarding LSP contracts to ULA (effectively a politically-forced hand) and NGIS, the latter assuring Omega’s survival. The military would thus be assuming that the political fallout created with SpaceX and Blue Origin would not be enough to severely harm their relationships, while also assuming that their much stronger commercial prospects and independent funding sources would ensure that each provider remains certified and willing to compete for future NSSL/EELV launches.
Regardless of what happens, the contradictory ways the USAF/DoD have structured their LSA and LSP programs seems bizarrely intent on creating major headaches and potential problems where that could easily be avoided with extraordinarily simple changes, namely removing the inexplicable cap and allowing three or more companies to win some of the ~25 LSP launch contracts).
Mission Updates
- The second launch of Falcon Heavy – the rocket’s commercial debut – is still scheduled to occur as early as April 7th.
- After Falcon Heavy, Cargo Dragon’s CRS-17 resupply mission is firmly scheduled for April (April 25th), while the first dedicated Starlink launch is now NET May 2019.
Photo of the Week:

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk offered a glimpse of a 1650 Kelvin (2500ºF/1400ºC) test of Starship’s metallic heat shield, simulating mid-range temperatures such a shield’s windward side might experience during an orbital-velocity reentry.(c. Elon Musk/SpaceX)
Elon Musk
SpaceX posts Starship booster feat that’s so nutty, it doesn’t even look real
The Super Heavy booster’s feat was so impressive that the whole maneuver almost looked like it was AI-generated.

SpaceX has shared a video of a remarkable feat achieved by Starship’s Super Heavy booster during its 11th flight test.
The Super Heavy booster’s feat was so impressive that the whole maneuver, which was captured on video, almost looked like it was AI-generated.
Super Heavy’s picture perfect hover
As could be seen in the video shared by SpaceX, Starship’s Super Heavy booster, which is nearly 400 feet tall, smoothly returned to Earth and hovered above the Gulf of America for a few seconds before it went for its soft water landing. The booster’s picture-perfect maneuver before splashing down all but capped a near-flawless mission for Starship, which is about to enter its V3 era with Flight 12.
The booster’s balance and stability were so perfect that some users on X joked that the whole thing looked AI-generated. Considering the size of Super Heavy, as well as the fact that the booster was returning from space, the hovering display all but showed that SpaceX is dead serious about keeping its dominant lead in the spaceflight sector.
Starship V2’s curtain call
As noted in a Space.com report, Flight Test 11 achieved every major goal SpaceX had set for the mission, including deploying Starlink mass simulators, relighting Raptor engines in space, and executing a stable reentry for both the Starship Upper Stage and the Super Heavy booster. The feat also marked the second time a Super Heavy booster has been reflown, a milestone in SpaceX’s quest to make the entire Starship system fully reusable.
Starship’s V2 vehicle will now give way to the upgraded Starship V3, which is designed for faster turnaround and higher payload capacity. The Starship program is expected to pursue even more aggressive targets in the coming months as well, with Elon Musk stating on social media platform X that SpaceX will attempt a tower catch for Starship Upper Stage as early as spring 2026.
Elon Musk
Starship’s next chapter: SpaceX eyes tower catch after flawless Flight 11
Elon Musk has revealed the tentative timeframe for Starship’s next milestone that would push the spacecraft’s reusability to a whole new level.

Elon Musk has revealed the tentative timeframe for Starship’s next milestone that would push the spacecraft’s reusability to a whole new level.
Following Flight 11’s flawless mission, Musk noted on X that SpaceX will be aiming to catch the Starship Upper Stage with its launch tower as early as spring 2026. This should pave the way for SpaceX to start optimizing Starship for maximum reusability.
Flight 11 closes the Starship V2 chapter on a high note
Starship’s eleventh flight, which launched from Starbase, Texas, achieved every major mission objective. The Super Heavy booster completed a successful ascent, hover, and soft splashdown in the Gulf of America, while the upper stage executed an orbit burn, deployed Starlink simulators, and returned with a controlled reentry over the Indian Ocean.
This mission officially closed the chapter on the second-generation Starship and first-generation Super Heavy booster, and it set the stage for a redesigned vehicle built for orbital payload missions, propellant transfer, and beyond. It should be noted that Elon Musk has mentioned on X that Starship V3, at least if things go well, might be capable of reaching Mars.
Elon Musk confirms tower catch attempt set for spring
After Flight 11’s success, Musk confirmed that SpaceX will attempt to catch the Starship Upper Stage with its launch tower arms, fondly dubbed by the spaceflight community as “chopsticks,” in the coming months. Musk’s announcement came as a response to an X user who asked when the tower could start catching the Starship Upper Stage. In his reply, Musk simply wrote “Springtime.”
Starship’s reusability is a key feature of the spacecraft, with SpaceX aiming to achieve a launch cadence that is almost comparable to conventional aircraft. For such a scenario to be feasible, launch tower catches of both Starship’s Upper Stage and its Super Heavy booster have to be routine.
Elon Musk
SpaceX is preparing to launch Starship V2 one final time
The mission will test reentry dynamics, new landing burn configurations, and heat-shield upgrades.

SpaceX is preparing to launch its final Starship V2 rocket on October 13, 2025. The launch closes the curtain on Starship V2 and marks the start of the ambitious spacecraft’s V3 era.
Liftoff for Flight 11 is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET from Starbase in South Texas, with a 75-minute launch window. The mission will test reentry dynamics, new landing burn configurations, and heat-shield upgrades ahead of the transition to the next-generation Starship V3.
Starship V3 and beyond
Elon Musk confirmed on X that Starship V3 is already in production and could be “built & tested” and perhaps even flown before the end of 2025. The new version is expected to feature major performance and scale improvements, with Musk stating that Starship V3, provided that things go well, might be capable of reaching Mars, though V4 is more likely to perform a full-scale mission to the red planet.
“Only one more V2 left to launch,” Musk wrote back in August following Starship’s successful Flight 10 mission. In another post, Musk stated that “Starship V3 is a massive upgrade from the current V2 and should be through production and testing by end of year, with heavy flight activity next year.”
Starship V2’s final mission
Flight 11 is designed to push the limits of Starship V2. SpaceX engineers have intentionally removed heat-shield tiles in vulnerable areas to analyze how the vehicle handles atmospheric reentry under stress, as noted in a Space.com report. The test will also refine subsonic guidance algorithms and new landing burn sequences for the Super Heavy booster that would be used for Starship V3.
“Super Heavy will ignite 13 engines at the start of the landing burn and then transition to a new configuration with five engines running for the divert phase. Previously done with three engines, the planned baseline for V3 Super Heavy will use five engines during the section of the burn responsible for fine-tuning the booster’s path, adding additional redundancy for spontaneous engine shutdowns.
“The booster will then transition to its three center engines for the end of the landing burn, entering a full hover while still above the ocean surface, followed by shutdown and dropping into the Gulf of America,” SpaceX wrote in a post on its official website.
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