SpaceX
DeepSpace: A critical juncture for SpaceX, Blue Origin, ULA, other players

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A high-pressure competition between all four major US launch providers – SpaceX, ULA, Blue Origin, and Orbital ATK (now NGIS) – is about to head into its most critical stage, a period of 60 days allotted for interested parties to submit their completed proposals. According to the US Air Force (USAF), the final request for proposals (RFP) could come as early as March 29th, giving the four aforementioned companies until May 28th to complete their proposals.
All things considered, the growing pressure and some of the USAF’s strategy behind the program – known as Launch Service Procurement (LSP) Phase 2 – has raised significant questions that remain largely unanswered and lead to a few mild bouts of strife or unhappiness from contract competitors. Most notably, Blue Origin – having just won a USAF development contract worth $500M – has repeatedly requested that the USAF and Department of Defense (DoD) delay the RFP and contract awards until 2021, according to Space News’ Sandra Erwin. Meanwhile, a lack of clarification from the USAF means that it’s unclear whether the strategy behind launch contract awards (LSP) will end up contradicting or undermining a partially connected development program known as Launch Service Agreements (LSA) that saw the USAF award ~$2B to three providers (excluding SpaceX) between 2018 and 2024.
Battle of the Acronyms: LSP vs. LSA
- Recently rebranded by the US military as the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program, LSP Phase 1 and 2 and LSA are the latest major procurement initiatives begun under the Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) program, spun up in the 1990s to provide a firmer foundation for the commercial launch of military spacecraft after the 1986 Shuttle Challenger disaster pushed most satellites off of the platform.
- Phase 2 of the EELV program has been ongoing for several years and will culminate with the procurement of 25+ launch contracts (LSP) from two providers no earlier than 2020. The USAF’s Launch Service Agreements are also a major strategic feature of Phase 2, nominally seeing the military branch contribute major funding to assist in the development of three separate launch vehicles (New Glenn, Vulcan, and Omega) with the intention of ultimately certifying those rockets for EELV (now NSSL) launches.
- LSA also saw the USAF award several tens of millions to SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Aerojet Rocketdyne to develop capabilities centered around advanced, new rocket engines (BE-4, AR-1, and Raptor), but the latest phase of LSA is valued at least several times higher than its earlier engine-specific awards.
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- Oddly, the purpose of LSA was – at least on the cover – to effectively ensure that the Air Force had multiple (more than two) providers and thus preserve a healthy, competitive military launch market. A senior leader specifically stated that “the goal of [LSA] is to make sure [the US military has] a competitive industrial base.”
- Aside from an initial $181M awarded to Blue Origin, ULA, and Orbital ATK (now Northrop Grumman Innovation Systems, NGIS) in 2018 and 2019, the remaining funding – up to $320M for Blue Origin’s New Glenn, $610M for NGIS’ Omega, and $785M for ULA’s Vulcan – would be dispersed to each provider between 2020 and 2024.
- However, an odd and controversial bit of language behind the coming five-year launch services procurement (LSP) initiative would completely cut off funding to LSA awardees in the event that they fail to be awarded launches from the latest LSP.
- Additionally, the LSP awards are strictly meant – apparently very intentionally – to be distrubuted among two launch providers, despite a minimum at least four being able (SpaceX) or required (ULA, Blue, NGIS) to enter a bid.
- In other words, this guarantees that either one or two of the three LSA awardees would have the vast majority of their supposedly awarded development funding cut off after FY2020, four years early.
- Oddly, the purpose of LSA was – at least on the cover – to effectively ensure that the Air Force had multiple (more than two) providers and thus preserve a healthy, competitive military launch market. A senior leader specifically stated that “the goal of [LSA] is to make sure [the US military has] a competitive industrial base.”
- Despite continued protests from a number of stakeholders, the USAF has refused to budge from its decision to simultaneously A) create a duopoly, B) defeat the purpose of LSA awards, and C) mass-award ~25 launch contracts to two providers in 2020, anywhere from 12-24 months prior to the planned inaugural launches of all three LSA-funded rockets.
- Without cost-sharing development funds from the USAF and a chance of winning more than a handful of US military launch contracts between now and the late 2020s, it can be all but guaranteed that an LSA funding cutoff will either indefinitely pause or slow to a crawl a given provider’s development of their proposed launch vehicle.

A rocket and a hard place
- This sticky situation thus offers up a few potential ways that this badly-designed (or entirely dishonest) military launch development and procurement strategy will end up by the end of 2020. One way or another, the current strategy as it stands will end up providing two (or one, given that SpaceX will not receive LSA funding) companies with several years of development funding and at least five years of bountiful, guaranteed launch contracts.
- The four providers and two LSP slots available offer a set range of possible alternate realities, limited by political barriers that would, say, almost invariably prevent the USAF from severely harming ULA by cutting off the vast majority of the company’s only real source of income for 5+ years.
- ULA and SpaceX win: This maintains the status quo, wholly invalidating the point of using LSA funds to ensure “a competitive industrial base.” NGIS likely cancels/freezes all Omega development with no chance of competing in commercial markets. Blue Origin owner Jeff Bezos could significantly delay New Glenn’s readiness for military missions if he fails to invest an additional $500M in infrastructure. Likeliest result: a marginally competitive duopoly.
- ULA wins, SpaceX loses: Having just certified Falcon 9 – and nearly Falcon Heavy – for high-value military launches and awarded SpaceX a total of 10 launch contracts (9 yet to be completed), the USAF could effectively spit in SpaceX’s face and award ULA and Blue Origin or NGIS LSP’s 25+ launch contracts.
- It’s hard to exaggerate just how much of a slight this would be perceived as by SpaceX and its executives, CEO Elon Musk in particular. The USAF would be risking the creation of a major political enemy, one which has already demonstrated a willingness to take the federal government to court and win. The USAF/DoD would effectively be hedging their bets against an assumption that SpaceX’s nine present military launch contracts will sate the company and ensure that SpaceX indefinitely remains a certified EELV/NSSL provider.
- In this eventuality, either Blue Origin or NGIS would lose LSA funding and the prospect of almost any military launch contracts until the late 2020s. For NGIS, this would likely kill Omega.
- At the end of the day, it’s sadly conceivable that the USAF/DoD may end up awarding LSP contracts to ULA (effectively a politically-forced hand) and NGIS, the latter assuring Omega’s survival. The military would thus be assuming that the political fallout created with SpaceX and Blue Origin would not be enough to severely harm their relationships, while also assuming that their much stronger commercial prospects and independent funding sources would ensure that each provider remains certified and willing to compete for future NSSL/EELV launches.
Regardless of what happens, the contradictory ways the USAF/DoD have structured their LSA and LSP programs seems bizarrely intent on creating major headaches and potential problems where that could easily be avoided with extraordinarily simple changes, namely removing the inexplicable cap and allowing three or more companies to win some of the ~25 LSP launch contracts).
Mission Updates
- The second launch of Falcon Heavy – the rocket’s commercial debut – is still scheduled to occur as early as April 7th.
- After Falcon Heavy, Cargo Dragon’s CRS-17 resupply mission is firmly scheduled for April (April 25th), while the first dedicated Starlink launch is now NET May 2019.
Photo of the Week:

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk offered a glimpse of a 1650 Kelvin (2500ºF/1400ºC) test of Starship’s metallic heat shield, simulating mid-range temperatures such a shield’s windward side might experience during an orbital-velocity reentry.(c. Elon Musk/SpaceX)
News
Starship Flight 9 nears as SpaceX’s Starbase becomes a Texan City
SpaceX’s launch site is officially incorporated as Starbase, TX. Starship Flight 9 could launch on May 27, 2025.

SpaceX’s Starbase is officially incorporated as a city in Texas, aligning with preparations for Starship Flight 9. The newly formed city in Cameron County serves as the heart of SpaceX’s Starship program.
Starbase City spans 1.5 square miles, encompassing SpaceX’s launch facility and company-owned land. A near-unanimous vote by residents, who were mostly SpaceX employees, led to its incorporation. SpaceX’s Vice President of Test and Launch, Bobby Peden, was elected mayor of Starbase. The new Texas city also has two SpaceX employees as commissioners. All Starbase officials will serve two-year terms unless extended to four by voters.
As the new city takes shape, SpaceX is preparing for the Starship Flight 9 launch, which is tentatively scheduled for May 27, 2025, at 6:30 PM CDT from Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX secured Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) approval for up to 25 annual Starship and Super Heavy launches from the site. However, the FAA emphasized that “there are other licensing requirements still to be completed,” including policy, safety, and environmental reviews.
On May 15, the FAA noted SpaceX updated its launch license for Flight 9, but added: “SpaceX may not launch until the FAA either closes the Starship Flight 8 mishap investigation or makes a return to flight determination. The FAA is reviewing the mishap report SpaceX submitted on May 14.”
Proposed Texas legislation could empower Starbase officials to close local highways and restrict Boca Chica Beach access during launches. Cameron County Judge Eddie Trevino, Jr., opposes the Texas legislation, insisting beach access remain under county control. This tension highlights the balance between SpaceX’s ambitions and local interests.
Starbase’s incorporation strengthens SpaceX’s operational base as it gears up for Starship Flight 9, a critical step in its mission to revolutionize space travel. With growing infrastructure and regulatory hurdles in focus, Starbase is poised to become a cornerstone of SpaceX’s vision, blending community development with cutting-edge aerospace innovation.
News
United Airlines debuts Starlink Wi-Fi on Detroit flight
United’s first passenger flight with Starlink Wi-Fi just landed in Detroit. Mainline flights to follow by year-end.

United Airlines debuted Starlink Wi-Fi on its first passenger flight to Detroit, marking a milestone in in-flight connectivity with SpaceX’s satellite internet.
On Thursday, the morning flight from Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport introduced high-speed, gate-to-gate Starlink internet for United Airlines passengers. The Starlink-equipped United Embraer E-175, tail number UA5717, departed at 7:35 a.m. for Detroit Metropolitan Airport.
United announced the rollout on X, stating, “That lightning-fast Wi-Fi we told you about? It’s here. Our first customers just found out what it’s like to break the Wi-Fi barrier and stream, scroll, shop, and game just like at home with Starlink. And it’s FREE for MileagePlus members. Rolling out across our fleet now.”
The service leverages Starlink’s 7,000+ low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites to deliver broadband globally, including in remote areas. United is the only major U.S. airline currently offering Starlink. The airline plans to expand the service across its two-cabin regional fleet and introduce it on mainline flights by year-end.
Sean Cudahy from The Points Guy tested Starlink’s Wi-Fi pre-launch, praising its ease and reliability. “I ran a speed test, and it clocked the Wi-Fi at 217 Mbps of download speed, and 26.8 Mbps of upload speed,” Cudahy shared, noting its suitability for long flights.
Beyond aviation, SpaceX is pitching Starlink as a GPS alternative, emphasizing its potential for Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) services. This dual capability underscores Starlink’s versatility.
In a letter to the FCC, SpaceX wrote, “One opportunity stands out as a particularly ripe, low-hanging fruit: facilitating the rapid deployment of next-generation low-Earth orbit (‘LEO’) satellite constellations that can deliver PNT as a service alongside high-speed, low-latency broadband and ubiquitous mobile connectivity.”
As SpaceX expands Starlink’s applications, from aviation to navigation, United’s adoption signals a broader shift toward satellite-driven connectivity on long flights. With plans to equip more aircraft, United and Starlink are redefining in-flight internet, promising seamless digital access at 30,000 feet.
News
SpaceX touts Starlink as GPS alternative in FCC PNT push
SpaceX highlighted Starlink’s potential to deliver PNT services alongside its broadband offerings.

SpaceX is positioning its Starlink constellation as a viable GPS alternative. In a letter to the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), SpaceX stated that it could leverage Starlink satellites for next-generation Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) solutions.
GPS has been run through a single provider in the United States, the Defense Department. The FCC intends to use Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) solutions to complement GPS technologies. In its letter, SpaceX highlighted Starlink’s potential to deliver PNT services alongside its broadband offerings in its letter to the FCC.
“As the Commission identifies specific actions to contribute to the whole-of-government PNT system resilience effort, one opportunity stands out as a particularly ripe, low-hanging fruit: facilitating the rapid deployment of next-generation low-Earth orbit (‘LEO’) satellite constellations that can deliver PNT as a service alongside high-speed, low-latency broadband and ubiquitous mobile connectivity,” SpaceX wrote.
SpaceX also emphasized its ongoing work to integrate PNT into its cellular Starlink service, which is expected to be launched with T-Mobile in July. The private space provider also stated that Starlink satellites already operate independently of GPS. This lays the groundwork for resilient PNT delivery across authorized frequencies, SpaceX noted in its letter.
“SpaceX has also been actively working to integrate PNT solutions into its direct-to-device commercial service offerings. In so doing, SpaceX can advance the Commission’s goal in this proceeding to maintain American leadership in next-generation PNT services both here at home and in over 130 countries it serves around the world.
“SpaceX looks forward to playing an integral role in creating a more robust, resilient, and secure PNT ecosystem for Americans and people around the world,” SpaceX noted.
SpaceX also advocated for a “technology-neutral approach” to GPS alternatives in its letter, while critiquing EchoStar’s unused 2GHz spectrum for mobile satellite services. Meanwhile, Globalstar, Apple’s satellite provider, also pitched its services as a GPS complement, stating that its services “can function as either an alternative or a complement to GPS.”
“Notably, Globalstar’s satellites transmit outside of the L-band, which provides PNT users with added immunity from GPS jamming and spoofing. In addition, Globalstar’s satellite transmissions at 2.4GHz are stronger than GPS signals, bolstering resilience, performance, and reliability,” GlobalStar noted.
SpaceX’s letter to the FCC can be viewed below.
Starlink GPS FCC by maria on Scribd
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