SpaceX
DeepSpace: A critical juncture for SpaceX, Blue Origin, ULA, other players

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A high-pressure competition between all four major US launch providers – SpaceX, ULA, Blue Origin, and Orbital ATK (now NGIS) – is about to head into its most critical stage, a period of 60 days allotted for interested parties to submit their completed proposals. According to the US Air Force (USAF), the final request for proposals (RFP) could come as early as March 29th, giving the four aforementioned companies until May 28th to complete their proposals.
All things considered, the growing pressure and some of the USAF’s strategy behind the program – known as Launch Service Procurement (LSP) Phase 2 – has raised significant questions that remain largely unanswered and lead to a few mild bouts of strife or unhappiness from contract competitors. Most notably, Blue Origin – having just won a USAF development contract worth $500M – has repeatedly requested that the USAF and Department of Defense (DoD) delay the RFP and contract awards until 2021, according to Space News’ Sandra Erwin. Meanwhile, a lack of clarification from the USAF means that it’s unclear whether the strategy behind launch contract awards (LSP) will end up contradicting or undermining a partially connected development program known as Launch Service Agreements (LSA) that saw the USAF award ~$2B to three providers (excluding SpaceX) between 2018 and 2024.
Battle of the Acronyms: LSP vs. LSA
- Recently rebranded by the US military as the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program, LSP Phase 1 and 2 and LSA are the latest major procurement initiatives begun under the Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) program, spun up in the 1990s to provide a firmer foundation for the commercial launch of military spacecraft after the 1986 Shuttle Challenger disaster pushed most satellites off of the platform.
- Phase 2 of the EELV program has been ongoing for several years and will culminate with the procurement of 25+ launch contracts (LSP) from two providers no earlier than 2020. The USAF’s Launch Service Agreements are also a major strategic feature of Phase 2, nominally seeing the military branch contribute major funding to assist in the development of three separate launch vehicles (New Glenn, Vulcan, and Omega) with the intention of ultimately certifying those rockets for EELV (now NSSL) launches.
- LSA also saw the USAF award several tens of millions to SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Aerojet Rocketdyne to develop capabilities centered around advanced, new rocket engines (BE-4, AR-1, and Raptor), but the latest phase of LSA is valued at least several times higher than its earlier engine-specific awards.
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- Oddly, the purpose of LSA was – at least on the cover – to effectively ensure that the Air Force had multiple (more than two) providers and thus preserve a healthy, competitive military launch market. A senior leader specifically stated that “the goal of [LSA] is to make sure [the US military has] a competitive industrial base.”
- Aside from an initial $181M awarded to Blue Origin, ULA, and Orbital ATK (now Northrop Grumman Innovation Systems, NGIS) in 2018 and 2019, the remaining funding – up to $320M for Blue Origin’s New Glenn, $610M for NGIS’ Omega, and $785M for ULA’s Vulcan – would be dispersed to each provider between 2020 and 2024.
- However, an odd and controversial bit of language behind the coming five-year launch services procurement (LSP) initiative would completely cut off funding to LSA awardees in the event that they fail to be awarded launches from the latest LSP.
- Additionally, the LSP awards are strictly meant – apparently very intentionally – to be distrubuted among two launch providers, despite a minimum at least four being able (SpaceX) or required (ULA, Blue, NGIS) to enter a bid.
- In other words, this guarantees that either one or two of the three LSA awardees would have the vast majority of their supposedly awarded development funding cut off after FY2020, four years early.
- Oddly, the purpose of LSA was – at least on the cover – to effectively ensure that the Air Force had multiple (more than two) providers and thus preserve a healthy, competitive military launch market. A senior leader specifically stated that “the goal of [LSA] is to make sure [the US military has] a competitive industrial base.”
- Despite continued protests from a number of stakeholders, the USAF has refused to budge from its decision to simultaneously A) create a duopoly, B) defeat the purpose of LSA awards, and C) mass-award ~25 launch contracts to two providers in 2020, anywhere from 12-24 months prior to the planned inaugural launches of all three LSA-funded rockets.
- Without cost-sharing development funds from the USAF and a chance of winning more than a handful of US military launch contracts between now and the late 2020s, it can be all but guaranteed that an LSA funding cutoff will either indefinitely pause or slow to a crawl a given provider’s development of their proposed launch vehicle.

A rocket and a hard place
- This sticky situation thus offers up a few potential ways that this badly-designed (or entirely dishonest) military launch development and procurement strategy will end up by the end of 2020. One way or another, the current strategy as it stands will end up providing two (or one, given that SpaceX will not receive LSA funding) companies with several years of development funding and at least five years of bountiful, guaranteed launch contracts.
- The four providers and two LSP slots available offer a set range of possible alternate realities, limited by political barriers that would, say, almost invariably prevent the USAF from severely harming ULA by cutting off the vast majority of the company’s only real source of income for 5+ years.
- ULA and SpaceX win: This maintains the status quo, wholly invalidating the point of using LSA funds to ensure “a competitive industrial base.” NGIS likely cancels/freezes all Omega development with no chance of competing in commercial markets. Blue Origin owner Jeff Bezos could significantly delay New Glenn’s readiness for military missions if he fails to invest an additional $500M in infrastructure. Likeliest result: a marginally competitive duopoly.
- ULA wins, SpaceX loses: Having just certified Falcon 9 – and nearly Falcon Heavy – for high-value military launches and awarded SpaceX a total of 10 launch contracts (9 yet to be completed), the USAF could effectively spit in SpaceX’s face and award ULA and Blue Origin or NGIS LSP’s 25+ launch contracts.
- It’s hard to exaggerate just how much of a slight this would be perceived as by SpaceX and its executives, CEO Elon Musk in particular. The USAF would be risking the creation of a major political enemy, one which has already demonstrated a willingness to take the federal government to court and win. The USAF/DoD would effectively be hedging their bets against an assumption that SpaceX’s nine present military launch contracts will sate the company and ensure that SpaceX indefinitely remains a certified EELV/NSSL provider.
- In this eventuality, either Blue Origin or NGIS would lose LSA funding and the prospect of almost any military launch contracts until the late 2020s. For NGIS, this would likely kill Omega.
- At the end of the day, it’s sadly conceivable that the USAF/DoD may end up awarding LSP contracts to ULA (effectively a politically-forced hand) and NGIS, the latter assuring Omega’s survival. The military would thus be assuming that the political fallout created with SpaceX and Blue Origin would not be enough to severely harm their relationships, while also assuming that their much stronger commercial prospects and independent funding sources would ensure that each provider remains certified and willing to compete for future NSSL/EELV launches.
Regardless of what happens, the contradictory ways the USAF/DoD have structured their LSA and LSP programs seems bizarrely intent on creating major headaches and potential problems where that could easily be avoided with extraordinarily simple changes, namely removing the inexplicable cap and allowing three or more companies to win some of the ~25 LSP launch contracts).
Mission Updates
- The second launch of Falcon Heavy – the rocket’s commercial debut – is still scheduled to occur as early as April 7th.
- After Falcon Heavy, Cargo Dragon’s CRS-17 resupply mission is firmly scheduled for April (April 25th), while the first dedicated Starlink launch is now NET May 2019.
Photo of the Week:

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk offered a glimpse of a 1650 Kelvin (2500ºF/1400ºC) test of Starship’s metallic heat shield, simulating mid-range temperatures such a shield’s windward side might experience during an orbital-velocity reentry.(c. Elon Musk/SpaceX)
News
Starlink makes a difference in Philippine province ravaged by typhoon
The Severe Tropical Storm battered the province, leaving communications networks in the area in shambles.

The Philippines’ Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) is using Starlink to provide connectivity in the municipality of Masbate, which was affected by Severe Tropical Storm Opong (international name Bualoi).
The Severe Tropical Storm battered the province, leaving communications networks in the area in shambles.
Starlink units enhance connectivity
DICT Secretary Henry Aguda visited the province to assess internet and communications infrastructure and deliver 10 additional Starlink satellite units, according to the Philippine News Agency. The is move aimed at strengthening emergency response and restore digital access to the area.
Aguda met with Masbate Governor Richard Kho during his visit and joined telecommunications representatives in inspecting provincial offices, free charging stations, and Wi-Fi connectivity sites for residents.
According to DICT officer-in-charge Rachel Ann Grabador, three Starlink units, 10 routers, and a 2kW solar-powered station have already been deployed in the province following the typhoon. The units have been installed at key facilities such as Masbate Airport’s communications tower and the Masbate Provincial Hospital’s administrative office.
Game-changing technology
Thanks to its global coverage and its capability to provide high-speed internet connectivity even in remote areas, Starlink has become the best communications solution that can be deployed in the aftermath of natural disasters. Its low-cost kits, which are capable of of providing fast internet speeds, are also portable, making them easy to deploy in areas that are damaged by natural disasters.
As noted in a Space.com report, there are currently 8,475 Starlink satellites in orbit, of which 8,460 are working, as of September 25, 2025. Initially, SpaceX had filed documents with International regulators to place about 4,000 Starlink satellites in Low Earth Orbit. Over time, however, the number of planned Starlink satellites has grown, with SpaceX aiming to launch as many as 42,000 Starlink satellites to fully connect the globe.
Elon Musk
SpaceX shares targets and tentative launch date for Starship Flight 11
As with all SpaceX tests, the estimated timeline for Starship Flight 11 remains subject to change based on conditions and readiness.

SpaceX is targeting Monday, October 13, for the eleventh test flight of its Starship launch system. The launch window is expected to open at 6:15 p.m. CT.
Similar to past Starship missions, a live webcast will begin about 30 minutes before launch on SpaceX’s website, X account, and X TV app. As with all SpaceX tests, the estimated timeline for Starship Flight 11 remains subject to change based on conditions and readiness.
Super Heavy booster landing test
The upcoming mission will build on the data gathered from Starship’s tenth test flight, focusing on booster performance and upper-stage capabilities. The Super Heavy booster, previously flown on Flight 8, will launch with 24 flight-proven Raptor engines, according to SpaceX in a blog post on its official website. Its primary objective is to validate a new landing burn engine configuration designed for the next generation of Super Heavy.
Instead of returning to Starbase, the Super Heavy booster will follow a trajectory toward the Gulf of America. During descent, it will ignite 13 engines before transitioning to a five-engine divert phase and then completing the landing burn with three central engines, entering a full hover while still above the ocean surface, followed by shutdown and dropping into the Gulf of America.
Starship upper-stage experiments
The Starship upper stage for Flight 11 will carry out a series of in-space demonstrations, including the deployment of eight Starlink simulators that are comparable in size to next-generation Starlink satellites. These payloads will reenter and burn up during descent. A planned Raptor engine relight in orbit will also provide valuable test data.
To evaluate the upper stage’s resilience during reentry, SpaceX engineers have intentionally removed heat shield tiles from select areas to stress-test Starship’s thermal protection system. The vehicle will attempt new maneuvers during descent, including a banking profile and subsonic guidance algorithms intended to simulate future return-to-launch-site missions. The upper stage will ultimately target a splashdown in the Indian Ocean.
SpaceX has already posted a link to the livestream for Starship Flight 11:
News
Astra CEO shades SpaceX over employee workload and Starbase
Elon Musk once stated that no one ever changed the world working just 40 hours a week.

Elon Musk once stated that no one ever changed the world working just 40 hours a week. This was something that is openly known among his companies. They have the potential to change the world, but they require a lot of hours.
SpaceX’s working environment was recently criticized by Chris Kemp, the chief executive officer of Astra. During some remarks at the Berkeley Space Symposium 2025 earlier this month, Kemp shared some sharp remarks about the Elon Musk-led private space enterprise.
SpaceX working conditions and Starbase
As noted in a report from Ars Technica, Kemp discussed a variety of topics during his talk. These included Astra’s successes and failures, as well as his thoughts on other players in the spaceflight industry. To be fair to Kemp, he practically shaded every major rival, calling Firefly’s engine “garbage,” dubbing Blue Origin as slow, and stating that Rocket Lab’s Electron rocket is “too small.”
SpaceX also received some colorful words from the Astra CEO. According to Kemp, SpaceX is leading the way in the spaceflight industry and Elon Musk is admirable in the way that he is willing to fail in order to move quickly. He did, however, highlight that Astra offers a significantly better working environment than SpaceX.
“It’s more fun than SpaceX, because we’re not on the border of Mexico where they’ll chop your head off if you accidentally take a left turn. And you don’t have to live in a trailer. And we don’t make you work six and a half days a week, 12 hours a day. It’s appreciated if you do, but not required,” Kemp said.
Elon Musk’s demands
It is known that Elon Musk demands quite a lot from his employees. However, it is also known that Musk-led companies move very fast and, in more ways than one, they have accomplished world-changing feats. Tesla, for example, has practically ushered in the era of the modern electric vehicle, and SpaceX has made space attainable through its reusable rockets. With this in mind, employees at Musk’s companies, and this of course includes SpaceX, are likely proud of their long work hours.
No one could probably go to Mars in this lifetime with a team that really works just 40 hours a week, after all.
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