Investor's Corner
Lost in Translation, Tesla’s Model 3 Marketing Begins
The irony is that this big, non-detailed marketing message has been the sweet spot for the legacy auto OEMs and gas cars, but now is being employed by a young car maker against their rivals.
During Elon Musk’s recent “end range anxiety” press conference, discussion turned to what he thought was the minimum amount of range for an electric car. “200 miles is the minimum threshold for an electric car. We need 200+ miles in real-world, not 200 miles in ‘AC-off, driving on a flat road,” Musk said on March 19th.
Discussion on the web has some fans and enthusiasts wondering whether Musk’s statement was purely discussion, Model 3 marketing or bragging about the company’s current cars. To me, it’s all about be beginning of the Model 3’s marketing campaign and this “little” reference reinforces to the public and media that Tesla Motors has already produced a 200+ mile car in 2012, not 2017.
In effect, Musk is saying “it’s great that Nissan and Chevy are talking about a 200-mile car in 2017.”
Musk is PT Barnum without the big con (…a little con slips out every now and then). The brilliance of Mr. Musk is that his company produced a game-changing vehicle in the right segment while leveraging a new drivetrain technology. First mover latitude to “speculate” on the technology’s future without a ton of pushback. When he talks the alchemy starts: a new car frontier mixes with Tesla Motors mission, image and whatever you want to call it.
Sure, there’s the battery swap hype of some years ago and the follow-through took sometime, but he has been busy.
Related Story >> A Peak into Tesla’s Battery Swap Station at Harris Ranch
But back to the 200+ mile statement, Musk is right on the mark as I drive a MS 60 in the Chicagoland area. The MS 60 has 208 rated miles and during the winter, it will make you think a bit more about your travels, compared to a MS 85 and its 245+ real miles. When it dips below zero, I top out at 194 miles on a full charge. However, I don’t have any issues with my short commute to my house office and the occasional city trips for business, plus we’re a two-car family.
This 200-mile statement is all about marketing and positioning for the Model 3, while being completely honest and accurate.
Musk said, “Anything below 200 miles isn’t passing grade, most people are looking for 20 percent more than that.” Musk is playing the long game and dropping the seed with early-wave EV buyers that Tesla will be moving toward that number. However, the legacy automakers may hit 200 rated miles..and from recent Nissan reports they won’t even hit 200 miles with their 2017 car.
Musk’s statement did not get much notice, but this story line will pick up momentum. Musk and Tesla will add this to the arsenal for the next two years and say: Who do trust when you buy your first EV car in 2017 or 2018?
The irony is that this big, non-detailed marketing message has been the sweet spot for the legacy auto OEMs, but now is being employed by a young EV carmaker against its rivals.
For the electric drivetrain products, legacy carmakers are adjusting and trying to “educate” car consumers. BMW and Nissan are doing good work in this area, with ride-and-drives and email marketing but GM is out to lunch, marketing-wise…and that’s too bad.
Great cars and excellent marketing is a pretty good combination to have.
*Disclosure: Author is long and owns shares in Tesla Motors.
Elon Musk
Tesla locks in Elon Musk’s top problem solver as it enters its most ambitious era
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla has granted Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu more than 520,000 stock options, tying a significant portion of his compensation to the company’s long-term performance.
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla secures top talent
According to a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Tom Zhu received 520,021 stock options with an exercise price of $435.80 per share. Since the award will not fully vest until March 5, 2031, Zhu must remain at Tesla for more than five years to realize the award’s full benefit.
Considering that Tesla shares are currently trading at around the $445 to $450 per share level, Zhu will really only see gains in his equity award if Tesla’s stock price sees a notable rise over the years, as noted in a Sina Finance report.
Still, even at today’s prices, Zhu’s stock award is already worth over $230 million. If Tesla reaches the market cap targets set forth in Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award, Zhu would become a billionaire from this equity award alone.
Tesla’s problem solver
Zhu joined Tesla in April 2014 and initially led the company’s Supercharger rollout in China. Later that year, he assumed the leadership of Tesla’s China business, where he played a central role in Tesla’s localization efforts, including expanding retail and service networks, and later, overseeing the development of Gigafactory Shanghai.
Zhu’s efforts helped transform China into one of Tesla’s most important markets and production hubs. In 2023, Tesla promoted Zhu to Senior Vice President of Automotive, placing him among the company’s core global executives and expanding his influence beyond China. He has since garnered a reputation as the company’s problem solver, being tapped by Elon Musk to help ramp Giga Texas’s vehicle production.
With this in mind, Tesla’s recent filing seems to suggest that the company is locking in its top talent as it enters its newest, most ambitious era to date. As could be seen in the targets of Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package, Tesla is now aiming to be the world’s largest company by market cap, and it is aiming to achieve production levels that are unheard of. Zhu’s talents would definitely be of use in this stage of the company’s growth.
Tesla analyst Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley teased the company’s dominance in its self-driving initiative, stating that its lead over competitors is “not even close.”
Percoco recently overtook coverage of Tesla stock from Adam Jonas, who had covered the company at Morgan Stanley for years. Percoco is handling Tesla now that Jonas is covering embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
His first move after grabbing coverage was to adjust the price target from $410 to $425, as well as the rating from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco’s new note regarding Tesla highlights the company’s extensive lead in self-driving and autonomy projects, something that it has plenty of competition in, but has established its prowess over the past few years.
He writes:
“It’s not even close. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving, even as Nvidia rolls out new technology aimed at helping other automakers build driverless systems.”
Percoco’s main point regarding Tesla’s advantage is the company’s ability to collect large amounts of training data through its massive fleet, as millions of cars are driving throughout the world and gathering millions of miles of vehicle behavior on the road.
This is the main point that Percoco makes regarding Tesla’s lead in the entire autonomy sector: data is King, and Tesla has the most of it.
One big story that has hit the news over the past week is that of NVIDIA and its own self-driving suite, called Alpamayo. NVIDIA launched this open-source AI program last week, but it differs from Tesla’s in a significant fashion, especially from a hardware perspective, as it plans to use a combination of LiDAR, Radar, and Vision (Cameras) to operate.
Percoco said that NVIDIA’s announcement does not impact Morgan Stanley’s long-term opinions on Tesla and its strength or prowess in self-driving.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang commends Tesla’s Elon Musk for early belief
And, for what it’s worth, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang even said some remarkable things about Tesla following the launch of Alpamayo:
“I think the Tesla stack is the most advanced autonomous vehicle stack in the world. I’m fairly certain they were already using end-to-end AI. Whether their AI did reasoning or not is somewhat secondary to that first part.”
Percoco reiterated both the $425 price target and the ‘Equal Weight’ rating on Tesla shares.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
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