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Mysterious Air Force spaceplane returns to Earth more than two years after SpaceX launch
More than 25 months after it lifted off on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, the US Air Force’s secretive X-37B spaceplane successfully returned to Earth on October 27th, breaking its own record for time spent in orbit.
As always, the specifics of what exactly the X-37B spaceplane does in orbit remain as obscure as ever.
SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket launched X-37B on its fifth mission – OTV-5 – on September 7th, 2017, just a handful of months after successfully launching a similarly secretive mission (NROL-76) for the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) and a handful of months prior to the company’s even more mysterious ‘Zuma’ launch. SpaceX’s OTV-5 launch had to race against the clock to beat Hurricane Irma’s forecasted landfall and the company managed to launch just a few days prior, while the booster’s post-landing operations had to be similarly expedited.
Thankfully, all went as planned and SpaceX recovery technicians had Falcon 9 booster B1040 safely stored inside a nearby hangar before Hurricane Irma impacted the Florida coast. B1040 was reused for the second and final time during the June 2018 launch of the SES-12 communications satellite and marked the second to last launch of a pre-Block 5 variant of Falcon 9.
In the interim, the USAF X-37B was quietly stationed in low Earth orbit (LEO), performing any number of tasks. Over the course of the 779 days it spent in orbit, the spaceplane modified its orbit several times before finally reentering Earth’s atmosphere to land at Kennedy Space Center’s Shuttle Landing Facility (KSC SLF) runway.
During the OTV-4 mission that preceded OTV-5, the same X-37B spacecraft spent 717 days in orbit – just shy of two years. OTV-5 surpassed that endurance record on August 26th and remained in orbit for another two months, breaking its own record by a bit less than 10%. For the most part, the USAF’s most consistent cover story for the X-37B paints the spaceplane as a platform for testing reusable spacecraft hardware, but that explanation has never made a huge amount of sense alongside the fact that each mission has averaged more than 570 days in orbit.
“[The X-37B is the] Air Force’s premier reusable and unmanned spacecraft providing the performance and flexibility to improve technologies in a way that allows scientists and engineers to recover experiments tested in a long-duration space environment.”
USAF, October 27th, 2019
In reality, it’s largely assumed that X-37B serves as a kind of flexible, on-call spy satellite, featuring a payload bay with plenty of room for signals intelligence or imaging hardware and a level of orbital endurance that makes it comparable to satellites. For example, OTV-5’s orbital parameters meant that the spacecraft routinely overflew Russia for much of the 25 months it spent in space.
Aside from the “experiments” and likely espionage-related payloads X-37B can stow inside its payload bay, the spacecraft also brings along a small solar array and radiator and features a hydrazine maneuvering system with substantial delta-V reserves, allowing it to significantly change its orbit.
In an unexpected twist, the USAF press release suggested that X-37B also provided “a ride for small satellites”, unusual because the US never registered those satellites with the UN if they were actually deployed from the spacecraft – a potential violation of international spaceflight treaties.
Following its successful October 27th recovery, Boeing and USAF teams will begin the process of refurbishing X-37B and preparing it for its sixth orbital mission as soon as possible. Known as OTV-6, the spacecraft is scheduled to head to orbit once more on a ULA Atlas V rocket that is scheduled to launch no earlier than Q2 2020.
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Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
Tesla stock closes at all-time high on heels of Robotaxi progress
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
