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NASA awards SpaceX five more Dragon astronaut launch contracts
NASA has finalized plans to purchase another five Crew Dragon launches from SpaceX, securing its astronauts access to the International Space Station (ISS) through 2030.
The award comes three months after NASA issued a notice of intent to purchase five additional missions from SpaceX. The space agency signed a different contract for three more Crew Dragon launches just three months before the latest order, meaning that NASA has now purchased eight new Crew Dragon launches from SpaceX in six months – doubling the spacecraft’s future launch manifest in the process.
August 31st’s order adds Crew missions 10 through 14 to Crew Dragon’s roster and brings its total number of planned operational NASA astronaut launches to 14. NASA says the five extra missions will cost $1.44 billion and raise the total value of SpaceX’s Crew Dragon CCtCap contract to $4.93 billion.
Factoring in a sum of approximately $2.74 billion that funded development and three test launches, NASA will ultimately pay an average of $328 million for each of 15 productive Crew Dragon astronaut launches (including Demo-2, the spacecraft’s first crewed test flight). Assuming four astronauts fly on each operational launch, the average price per astronaut launched through 2030 will be $85 million.
With its latest contract, NASA will beat that average and pay $288 million per launch ($72 million per astronaut). Crew-10 through Crew-14 will likely occur in the late 2020s, meaning that the space agency may be saving even more money than is immediately obvious. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5% over the next eight years, $288 million today could be worth around $235 million in 2030. SpaceX is not paid until after its services are rendered.

NASA’s decision to award SpaceX eight new Crew Dragon launch contracts in 2022 is a major blow to its second Commercial Crew provider, Boeing, which has received zero additional orders. It also emphasizes just how good of a deal the agency got with SpaceX. Once said to be “well positioned to fly [its] first crew in early 2020,” Boeing’s Starliner crew capsule finally completed its first (mostly) successful uncrewed test flight in May 2022. Boeing and NASA are now working towards February 2023 for the spacecraft’s first crewed test flight, delaying Starliner’s first operational astronaut launch until late 2023 at the earliest.
Starliner still has only six operational launch contracts, which date back to ta guarantee in the original 2014 CCtCap awards that promised 2-6 operational launch contracts per provider. Thanks to NASA’s fixed-price contract with Boeing, the agency won’t have to cover the almost $700 million that years of Starliner delays and a test flight do-over have cost the company to date, but taxpayers will still end up paying a total of $4.49 billion – $748 million per operational Boeing astronaut launch.

Even using iffy Boeing calculus that claims NASA will get five seats of value per launch by adding an extra astronaut or cargo, the space agency would end up paying $150 million per astronaut through 2030. If only four astronauts launch on each Starliner, the average price per seat rises to $187 million.
Unless Boeing is able to find a commercial customer willing to burn tens or hundreds of millions of dollars to avoid launching private astronauts with SpaceX, it may never recoup the losses it has incurred developing Starliner. Worse, without Boeing paying even more out of pocket to certify Starliner to launch on a different rocket, the spacecraft will find itself without a certified rocket after its sixth operational launch.
Meanwhile, on top of eight new NASA contracts, Crew Dragon has already supported two private astronaut launches and SpaceX has contracts for five more private missions through 2024. Put simply, thanks in large part to the void created by Boeing’s surprising shortcomings, SpaceX practically owns the western market for crewed orbital spaceflight and will likely continue to dominate it throughout the 2020s.
Elon Musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk reminds everyone about Roadster’s true meaning
Tesla CEO Elon Musk took to his social media platform X on Sunday to remind everyone that the Roadster’s true meaning is not about company growth or adding dollars to shareholders’ pockets. Sometimes, you just do things because you can.
Following the Roadster’s epic unveiling event last Thursday, skeptics and critics of the company or the project itself came out to say that the vehicle is a pointless project because it is not geared toward growing the company, delivering supreme margins for profitability, nor does it contribute to the big picture of Artificial/Super Intelligence.
But that’s just the thing: Roadster is not meant to be some shareholder dream; it’s meant to be a vehicle that people buy just because it is something awesome, unique, and the first of its kind.
Tesla Roadster: Three configs, one can fly, 0-60 in 0.8 seconds
Musk had to remind those who are skeptical about the Roadster’s importance to the company mission that while it is not a major contributor to Tesla’s long-term goals, it is something that is being built just because it can be:
“Optimus and Cybercab will be the vast majority of Tesla’s value. The only things that will scale to incredible size (K2 and beyond) economically are super intelligence, robots, solar power, and mass to space. And, of course, if you have the first two, the rest will follow. But Roadster is super cool, so we’re doing it anyway.”
Musk has said on many occasions that Optimus would be the project that would make up the vast majority of Tesla’s value in the coming years.
Robotics will be a major focus of Tesla over the coming years, especially as Musk believes Optimus will enable work to be optional for humans and will enable what he calls “High Universal Income.”
Optimus and Cybercab will be the vast majority of Tesla’s value.
The only things that will scale to incredible size (K2 and beyond) economically are super intelligence, robots, solar power and mass to space.
And, of course, if you have the first two, the rest will follow.
But Roadster is super cool, so we’re doing it anyway.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 18, 2026
Cybercab will be a passive income opportunity for owners, Musk and Tesla have said for a very long time, as a fleet of self-driving vehicles will operate within a ride-hailing Robotaxi service that won’t require a human driver to be present.
Tesla investors are more than enthusiastic about the company’s future projects, at least from a general consensus perspective. However, it is important to note that the Roadster is a fun and cool project that pushes the boundaries of what people thought was possible for an automobile.
What we saw last week was the first true example of a flying car, and despite the backlash about how it might not contribute to Tesla’s grand ambitions, it’s okay to have fun sometimes, too.
Investor's Corner
SpaceX’s biggest earnings test yet lands Tuesday, and Tesla shareholders should be watching
SpaceX reports earnings Tuesday as Wall Street watches AI spending, Starlink growth and Tesla merger
SpaceX reports third quarter results after the market closes Tuesday, with a webcast at 4:30 p.m. ET streamed on X, and Tesla follows a day later. Bloomberg consensus, cited by Pepperstone, calls for revenue of $12.89 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $6.62 billion and adjusted EPS near $0.15. That would be about 65% growth from the second quarter and SpaceX’s first profitable quarter since its IPO. Analysts expect roughly $6.4 billion from AI and $4.9 billion from Starlink, which is projected to reach 14.3 million consumer subscribers. Capital spending is forecast at $19.6 billion, leaving free cash flow near negative $11.6 billion.
The numbers matter because SpaceX has spent months trying to win over a skeptical market. It priced its record IPO at $135, spiked to $225.64, then sank near $105 in early August. Friday’s close of $146.03 sits about 28% below the June high. The Q2 report beat on revenue at $7.8 billion and put Starlink at 12 million subscribers, but $18.4 billion of capex hurt the stock. Since then SpaceX reached orbit on Starship Flight 14 with 26 Starlink V3 satellites, agreed to buy 800 MHz spectrum for about $8 billion as part of its Starlink Mobile push, and signed a fourth compute hosting deal in four months worth roughly $13 billion a year from December. Management is targeting more than 2 gigawatts of compute by year end and a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate. Evercore ISI, which raised its target to $275, said the quarter may be judged more on those targets than the reported figures
All of this sits under the Tesla merger question. Barclays analyst Dan Levy expects an all stock deal in which SpaceX buys Tesla at a premium, using reference values of $2.1 trillion and $1.5 trillion, and said an announcement would need to come by late October or early November to be voted on at Tesla’s December 6 annual meeting. Barclays estimates Musk would hold about 37% of the combined company and 56% of the votes. Musk said in July that combining companies cannot be discussed on an earnings call, but an investor question asking when SpaceX will merge with Tesla is sitting on SpaceX’s Q&A platform, and Teslarati has tracked how the Roadster demo revived the talk.
If a deal happens, Tuesday’s result would effectively set the price Tesla holders would receive. Their shares would convert into SpaceX stock, along with exposure to a company with a heavy investment on AI, while Tesla itself expects 2026 capex above $25 billion. A strong quarter and calmer spending would make that exchange easier to sell. Another round of heavy capex and a falling stock would make it harder.
News
SpaceX’s Gwynne Shotwell just made a quiet gesture toward Tesla
SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell quietly followed Tesla on X, and merger watchers noticed right away.
SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell has started following Tesla’s official account on X, a small change that landed in the middle of a very loud merger conversation. Whole Mars Catalog joked about it on Sunday.
A follow is not an announcement, and neither company has said anything about a deal. What gives the moment weight is the timing. Barclays analyst Dan Levy has told clients that an agreement could come before Tesla’s annual meeting, which must be held by December 6, with SpaceX as the buyer in an all stock deal, as we reported after the Roadster unveiling. Wedbush’s Dan Ives has stuck with a 2027 timeline.
“Shit, I better start following their X account if i’m gonna be helping run the company”
— Whole Mars Catalog (@wholemars) October 18, 2026
Shotwell is the executive most worth watching if the two companies do move closer. When Musk was asked at the All In Summit why Tesla and SpaceX remain separate, Shotwell sat next to him and said SpaceX personnel had already moved into xAI to fill leadership and engineering gaps. The businesses were integrating “faster than I thought,” she said, though “not fully integrated yet.” Her responsibilities have also grown since SpaceX absorbed xAI, and she now oversees operations that include Grok and the company’s AI compute buildout.
The financial links are already there. Tesla’s $2 billion xAI investment turned into a stake of less than one percent in SpaceX, the two share the Terafab chip project in Austin, and Musk exercised his 2018 Tesla options a week after SpaceX began trading, a sequence analysts flagged as giving SpaceX public shares to use in a deal. Musk holds about 20 percent of Tesla and controls 85.1 percent of SpaceX’s voting power, according to our earlier breakdown.
The next test is close at hand. SpaceX reports its second earnings as a public company on Tuesday after the close, and Tesla follows on Wednesday. Musk told analysts in July that “we can’t talk about combining companies and that kind of thing on an earnings call,” so a direct answer is unlikely from either stage. Tesla shareholders can still submit and vote on questions through the Say portal until 4 p.m. EDT on Monday, and the merger is a recurring theme in the queue.