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Northrop Grumman partners with Firefly and SpaceX to save Antares rocket, launch Cygnus spacecraft
Northrop Grumman has announced plans to partner with startup Firefly Aerospace to save (and upgrade) the conglomerate’s Antares rocket, which it uses to launch Cygnus cargo spacecraft to the International Space Station.
The new and improved Antares 330 rocket could debut as early as late 2024. The existing Antares 230 rocket has just two launches left before a lack of new hardware from crucial Ukrainian suppliers will permanently ground it – a time Northrop Grumman estimates will come as early as spring (Q2) 2023. To fill Antares’ 18-month availability gap, Northrop Grumman says it has purchased three SpaceX Falcon 9 launches to continue Cygnus space station cargo deliveries largely unabated.
In some ways, Northrop Grumman’s decision to purchase alternate launch services from SpaceX is surprising. After Antares suffered a catastrophic failure during an operational Cygnus launch in October 2014, Orbital Sciences chose to purchase three Atlas V launches from the United Launch Alliance (ULA) to ensure continued cargo deliveries while it attempted to return its own rocket to flight. Antares fully took over in 2017 after returning to flight in 2016.
However, seven or so years later, ULA is on the verge of retiring Atlas V and has already sold all remaining Atlas V launch contracts. Meanwhile, its next-generation Vulcan Centaur rocket is years behind schedule and unlikely to debut before 2023, making it extremely unlikely that ULA would have been able to fulfill Northrop Grumman’s desire to preserve its existing Cygnus launch schedule. It’s possible that Vulcan could have gotten the job done, but each Cygnus launch would have likely ended up several months (or more) behind schedule, thus requiring SpaceX and future provider Sierra Nevada Corporation to fill in the space station resource gaps Cygnus would leave.
With the benefit of hindsight and knowing that Antares 330 is unlikely to debut before late 2024 or 2025, it’s clear that SpaceX was the only viable option. Thanks to SpaceX operating in an entirely different universe of launch cadence and availability relative to the rest of the world, the company should have no issue whatsoever substituting a few of the dozens of Falcon 9 Starlink launches likely planned in 2023 and 2024 with Cygnus space station resupply runs.
Northrop Grumman’s decision comes almost four months after Russia’s second illegal invasion of Ukraine, an action that immediately threw the future of its Antares rocket into question. The only major components of Antares-Cygnus Northrop Grumman (through its 2018 acquisition of Orbital ATK) is responsible for building are the rocket’s Castor 30XL second stage and Cygnus’ service module. Cygnus’ silver pressure vessel is built by Thales Alenia Space, the payload fairing is built by RUAG, the Antares booster engines are supplied by Russia’s NPO Energomash, and the Antares booster structures are built by Ukraine’s Yuzhnoye SDO and Yuzhmash.
Now embroiled in an open shooting war begun by Russia, Ukraine’s aerospace industry has been on borrowed time for several months. In July, the Yuzhmash factory was reportedly struck by cruise missiles, killing several people and presumably damaging the facility. Northrop Grumman’s August 8th announcement that it US startup Firefly Aerospace will build a domestic replacement for the Antares first stage all but guarantees that its former Ukrainian partners are no longer able to supply rocket hardware.
The Antares 330 booster Firefly intends to build for Northrop Grumman will be substantially larger and “significantly increase” the rocket’s performance to low Earth orbit (LEO), which currently sits at 8 tons (~17,500 lb). Intriguingly, the booster Firefly will supply appears to be the latest iteration of the first stage of the medium-lift Beta rocket the startup has been working on for some time. According to Firefly’s recently updated Beta webpage, the next-generation rocket is expected to measure 4.32 meters (14.1 ft) wide and 55.7 meters (182.5 ft) tall; produce about 720 tons (1.6M lbf) of thrust in vacuum, and launch up to 13 tons (28,700 lb) to LEO.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reports its earnings for Q3 today. Here’s what to expect, as the company will reveal its balance sheet after the market closes on Wednesday.
Tesla already reported deliveries just after Q3 ended, and it demolished Wall Street consensus estimates of roughly 462,000 vehicles. Tesla delivered 486,532 cars in the third quarter, which was a big beat, but was down 2.1 percent from the same quarter last year. Energy storage deployments were 13.7 GWh, up year-over-year.
Tesla showrooms picked clean ahead of Q3 end as demand looks strong
For the quarter, analysts have already compiled their predictions for what Tesla will report this afternoon:
- Total Revenues: $28.34B
- Non-GAAP EPS: $0.43
- Operating Margin: 2.5%
- Operating Income: $721M
- Free Cash Flow: ~-$4.51B
Here are a few things we are looking forward to hearing about on the call:
Automotive Gross Margin and Overall Profitability
This was 16.3 percent in Q2, down from 19.2 percent in Q1, and was impacted by warranty charges and some fading regulatory credits. Consensus implies overall gross margin near 18 percent, but a miss here would potentially reinforce concerns about pricing pressure on its vehicles.
Pay attention to energy storage margins as well, especially since Tesla missed GWh expectations, although it was still a strong quarter.
Robotaxi/Cybercab, Unsupervised FSD, and Optimus Progress
The Say questions from retail investors usually focus on these types of projects, and this quarter is no different. Scaling the Cybercab fleet beyond Austin amid the open NHTSA safety review, timeline for Unsupervised FSD in customer cars, Robotaxi unit economics, and Optimus cost per unit plus when it could start generating revenue, are all things to be looking for.
Any concrete timelines or regulatory path details will likely move the stock more than the near-term numbers. SpaceX merger speculation, which was detailed during SpaceX’s earnings call last night, may also surface, although the key details were shared last night.
Elon Musk just confirmed the Tesla and SpaceX merger step everyone was waiting for
Say Investor Questions
- How does the Cybercab fleet scale past Austin, and what’s the regulatory path outside Texas given NHTSA’s open safety review?
- When can we anticipate FSD unsupervised in customer cars?
- When will the CyberCab be available for customer purchase/ownership?
- What’s the unit economics per paid robotaxi mile, and how does it compare to the thirty-cent target?
- Tesla has acknowledged that HW3 vehicles cannot support unsupervised FSD. When will owners know whether they can upgrade their hardware for free, and when will Tesla provide a clear plan?
The full Earnings Call will be streamed this evening after market close around 5 p.m. this evening.
SpaceX confirmed the date of Starship’s 15th launch window with some massive ambitions for the mission, as it will attempt to catch Ship for the first time.
CEO Elon Musk confirmed during SpaceX’s Earnings Call last night on October 20 that it would launch Starship for its 15th test flight in November, and there are some incredible things the company wants to try, making it perhaps the most groundbreaking launch in the program’s history.
SpaceX delivers blockbuster Q3 results as Super Intelligence segment booms
The most major development of the call was SpaceX’s intention to catch Ship alongside catching the Super Heavy Booster, something that has happened in the past. SpaceX showed an animation of the Ship catch, which will be done on the launch tower’s chopsticks:
SpaceX has released a new Starship tower catch animation for the upcoming Flight 15! https://t.co/kStn01Da8u
— Truthful🛰️ (@Truthful_ast) October 20, 2026
This monumental goal is to catch both the Ship and Booster in a dual-catch scenario, an incredible feat since SpaceX has never been able to reuse a Ship after launch. Musk said it would be “the first time that an orbital launch vehicle has been fully recovered,” and said it would be a “profound technology milestone.”
Musk said the odds of success on this first Ship catch attempt are “more likely than not,” but SpaceX is ultimately prepared for more tries moving forward. The SpaceX frontman said that, starting next year, Starship would have a “steady stream” of flights through the end of the year.
The cadence will accelerate in 2027, with Musk stating the company plans to target weekly flights in the first half of 2027 and twice-weekly by year-end.
The Flight 15 attempt follows that of Flight 14, which took off in late September and was Starship’s first orbital mission. It deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites, accomplished a controlled ocean splashdown of both stages, and shed more light on potential challenges for the program moving forward.
As of now, the Starship program is firing on all cylinders.
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Wall Street analysts rapidly raised price targets on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) after the company reported a bullish third quarter for 2026 following the market close on October 20. Shares were sent sharply higher in after-hours and premarket trading.
SpaceX posted revenue of $14.6 billion, a 161 percent year-over-year increase that comfortably topped consensus estimates, which fell near $12.7 billion. The company also posted a net profit of $4.4 billion from a prior-year loss, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $8.8 billion.
More price target movement:
🚀 Cantor Fitzgerald lifted its target to $345 from $246 (Overweight).
🚀 Barclays raised its target to $300 from $254 (Overweight).
🚀 Citi increased its target to $240 from $200 (Buy),
🚀 UBS moved to $230 from $210 (Buy)
🚀TD Cowen raised its target to $224 from $200 (Buy).
🚀Morgan Stanley held an Overweight rating with a $300 target.
🚀Other firms also adjusted higher, including Wells Fargo (to $274 from $214) and Clear Street (to $248 from $217). Analysts broadly cited the strong quarterly print, accelerating AI compute expansion, Starlink progress, and Starship milestones as drivers of higher long-term growth and earnings power.— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 21, 2026
Its Super Intelligence (AI) division generated roughly $7.6 billion and became the largest revenue contributor, growing nearly 830 percent year-over-year, while the Connectivity segment delivered $5.2 billion on strong subscriber additions that lifted the consumer base to 13.6 million for Starlink.
The Earnings Call proved especially catalytic, as CEO Elon Musk and CFO Bret Johnsen outlined Q1 2027 revenue guidance of $33 billion to $37 billion, which was far above the roughly $22 billion analysts had modeled, alongside fourth-quarter capital-expenditure plans of $35 billion to $40 billion focused on AI compute infrastructure at sites including Memphis and Southaven.
SpaceX delivers blockbuster Q3 results as Super Intelligence segment booms
Management targets 2.5 to 3 gigawatts of nameplate compute capacity by year-end and discussed pathways to 13 gigawatts or more by the end of 2027. Musk described relentless demand from hyperscalers and other customers, with compute pricing supporting payback periods of less than a year and potentially as short as six months.
Additional highlights included Starship’s recent orbital success and V3 satellite deployment, Starlink pricing and enterprise momentum, rapid Grok Bot adoption, spectrum expansion plans, and the formation of special committees to explore a possible combination with Tesla.
These elements prompted a wave of price-target increases:
- JPMorgan more than doubled its target to $500 from $240 while maintaining an Overweight rating.
- Cantor Fitzgerald lifted its target to $345 from $246 (Overweight).
- Barclays raised its target to $300 from $254 (Overweight).
- Citi increased its target to $240 from $200 (Buy),
- UBS moved to $230 from $210 (Buy), and
- TD Cowen raised its target to $224 from $200 (Buy).
- Morgan Stanley held an Overweight rating with a $300 target.
- Other firms also adjusted higher, including Wells Fargo (to $274 from $214) and Clear Street (to $248 from $217). Analysts broadly cited the strong quarterly print, accelerating AI compute expansion, Starlink progress, and Starship milestones as drivers of higher long-term growth and earnings power.
Shares, which closed at $147.79 on October 20, jumped roughly 8 percent in early premarket trading on October 21 as investors digested the results and the newly elevated Street targets.
The average analyst price target has moved higher, which reflects greater conviction in SpaceX’s trajectory across launch, connectivity, and the Super Intelligence business, even as elevated spending remains a point of focus.
Tesla reports Q3 Earnings today: here’s what to expect
SpaceX confirms Starship 15 launch window with massive ambitions
SpaceX stock gets a slew of price target boosts after bullish earnings call
SpaceX reveals how its 1 Million AI satellite network will work and prevent space collisions
Tesla Roadster: Three configs, one can fly, 0-60 in 0.8 seconds
