Investor's Corner

Projecting Tesla’s Growth for the Next 6-10 Years

Published

11 years ago

October 2, 2014

When Tesla announced its Gigafactory, it provided us with a fairly detailed picture of its growth going forward. And now that the Gigafactory deal is done with Nevada, that growth seems to be a low risk assumption. Tesla has also provided us with some color about 2015 and using all this information and filling in the blanks, I’ve come up with this chart for Tesla’s automotive growth going forward:

Tesla's Growth

Tesla’s Gigafactory is expected to produce 50GWh of battery packs in 2020. If we assume that 85kWh is the average pack size – I expect the Model 3 pack to be smaller and Model X pack to be larger – Tesla will need 42.5GWh for automotive use. That leaves an excess of 7.5GWh for energy storage. By early next year, Tesla will be using as much or more than the rest of the global cylindrical cell output combined based on their stated Model S run rate goal of 50,000/year. So at 500,000 cars per year, Tesla would be using 10 times the current global output of cylindrical cells and more than the current total global output of batteries.

However, the Gigafactory should be maxed out by then and my personal prediction is that we will either see a major expansion of the Gigafactory go online shortly after 2020 or we will see more such factories go online in the coming years. Considering that the current Gigafactory that expects to start production in 2017 broke ground in 2014, factory 2 should break ground in 2018, just after the first one goes online. My expectation is also that during that time frame at the latest, Tesla will start considering auto factories on other continents.

Tesla has also stated that they are building superchargers at a rate greater than one per day. At that rate, by 2020, Tesla will have 2000 superchargers globally, enough to give them a major leg up over any other manufacturer. In fact, by 2017, which is the earliest that any long range EVs are expected, Tesla should already have 1000 supercharger stations in place. That would already put the Model 3 ahead of any potential competition in the space.

As far as storage batteries go, Tesla currently sells some storage batteries through SolarCity both for residential and commercial customers. Currently this is a very small limited availability offering. However, the Gigafactory will change all that making batteries more affordable and giving SolarCity the ability for bigger and more widespread deployments. As someone with solar panels, this excites me as much or more than automotive growth for Tesla. As solar system prices are dropping, over the next decade storage along with panels might become the norm. The market for this is potentially limitless.

So if you think that you have missed out on Tesla’s growth, you are wrong. Major growth is still to come. If there is one company I see becoming bigger than Apple, it is Tesla. Here is what Tesla’s revenue growth would look like with Model S average price of 100,000$, Model X at 110,000$ and Model 3 at 60,000$ from cars alone.

Tesla's Growth (Revenue)

At 500,000 cars, Tesla will have 0.5% of the global auto market still leaving significant growth potential ahead. Even though there has been a recent up tick in rumors of 200 mile EVs, I expect none of them to be competitive with Tesla until at least 2020 and that too only if the rest of the industry bothers with a charging network to enable long distance travel in an EV.

My personal estimate is that Tesla will produce 2 million cars by 2024. At that time, I estimate Tesla auto revenues of $160 billion – about equaling current GM revenues. However, none of this takes into account Tesla’s storage revenues. If by 2024, Tesla can sell 100GWh of storage batteries at 150$/kWh, that would bring in another $15 billion in revenue but at a higher margin than the auto business. At $175B in revenue and growing, with margins of 15% and a P/E of 20, Tesla would be worth more than $500 billion then. Tesla will still be a growth company with 4-6 available models and more coming soon.

Disclosure: I am long TSLA, SCTY.

Visit my personal finance blog or visit me at Seeking Alpha.

Investor's Corner

LIVE BLOG: Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2025 earnings call

The following are live updates from Tesla’s Q3 2025 earnings call.

Published

28 seconds ago

October 22, 2025

Simon Alvarez

Credit: Tesla

Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) earnings call comes on the heels of the company’s Q3 2025 update letter, which was released after the closing bell on October 22, 2025.

Tesla’s Q3 2025 Results

As could be seen in Tesla’s Q3 2025 Update Letter, the company posted GAAP EPS of $0.39 and non-GAAP EPS of $0.50 per share. Tesla also posted total revenues of $28.095 billion. GAAP net income is also listed at $1.37 billion.

Tesla’s total revenue increased 12% YoY to $28.1 billion, while operating income decreased 40% YoY to $1.6 billion. This means that for Q3 2025, Tesla’s had a 5.8% operating margin. Tesla’s quarter-end cash, cash equivalents and investments was $41.6 billion by the end of the third quarter.

Earnings call updates

The following are live updates from Tesla’s Q3 2025 earnings call. I will be updating this article in real time, so please keep refreshing the page to view the latest updates on this story.

16:25 CT – Good day to everyone, and welcome to another Tesla earnings call live blog. The Q3 2025 Update Letter seemed to be on the quieter side, but it’s hard not to be impressed with Tesla’s $4 billion free cash flow, an all-time high.

Now we just have to see how the earnings call will go.

Investor's Corner

Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2025 earnings results

Tesla’s Q3 earnings come on the heels of a quarter where the company produced over 447,000 vehicles, delivered over 497,000 vehicles, and deployed 12.5 GWh of energy storage products.

Published

1 hour ago

October 22, 2025

Simon Alvarez

Credit: Tesla Asia/X

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has released its Q3 2025 earnings results in an update letter. The document was posted on the electric vehicle maker’s official Investor Relations website after markets closed today, October 22, 2025.

Tesla’s Q3 earnings come on the heels of a quarter where the company produced over 447,000 vehicles, delivered over 497,000 vehicles, and deployed 12.5 GWh of energy storage products.

Tesla’s Q3 2025 results

In comparison, FactSet consensus expects Tesla to post earnings per share of around $0.56, down 22% from Q3 2024’s $0.72 per share. Tesla’s revenue is forecasted to rise 5.4% to $26.54 billion, as noted in an Investor.com report.

On the other hand, Sharp consensus, which tracks analyst revision trends, predicts Tesla to post earnings of $0.57 per share and revenue totaling $28.31 billion.

Q3 Update

In Q3, we achieved record deliveries + energy storage deployments.

Alongside launching new + exciting products, our focus remains on scale.

Every Tesla delivered today is designed for autonomy & every Tesla energy storage product is capable of being enhanced +…— Tesla (@Tesla) October 22, 2025

Other key results

Tesla highlighted the following Q3 results in its Update Letter.

As per Tesla, it is stil profitable with $1.6 billion GAAP operating income, $1.4 billion GAAP net income, and $1.8 billion non-GAAP net income. By the end of the third quarter, Tesla had an operating cash flow of $6.2 billion and record free cash flow of nearly $4.0 billion.

Tesla’s Q3 2025 Update Letter

TSLA-Q3-2025-Update by Simon Alvarez

Investor's Corner

Tesla investors want answers to these five questions during Q3 Earnings

These are the top five questions that have been asked and voted for by investors of the company, and what we think about them.

Published

6 hours ago

October 22, 2025

Joey Klender

Credit: Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is preparing to report its earnings for the third quarter of 2025 this afternoon. Investors are looking for answers regarding the Robotaxi launch, energy division, potential future vehicle releases, Optimus, and demand stimulation without the tax credit.

Using the investor platform Say, Tesla allows investors to ask questions for the earnings call.

Tesla Q3 2025 earnings: What analysts expect

These are the top five questions that have been asked and voted for by investors of the company, and what we think about them:

What are the latest Robotaxi metrics (fleet size, cumulative miles, rides completed, intervention rates), and when will safety drivers be removed? What are the obstacles still preventing unsupervised FSD from being deployed to customer vehicles?
- What we think: Tesla should release some metrics about Robotaxi operation, but it has been cryptic about fleet size and other statistics in the past. Additionally, CEO Elon Musk said Safety Drivers should be removed ‘by the end of the year,’ and we imagine this will be reiterated during the call. Regarding Unsupervised FSD, Tesla has stated that safety is its priority moving forward with the FSD rollout and Robotaxi as well.

What is demand/backlog for Megapack, Powerwall, Solar, or energy storage systems? With the current AI boom, is Tesla planning to supply power to other hyperscalers?
- What we think: This is perhaps the only question of the five that Tesla will be totally forthcoming with, as it usually does not reveal vehicle plans or data on these earnings calls. However, it will be interesting to see if the company has any plans to supplement the increasing AI plans with its energy products. Energy falls under the radar with a lot of its achievements, so it really could be a major focus of this call if this question gets answered.

What are the plans for new car models? Will Tesla build compact car models leveraging the unboxed Cybercab platform? Will Tesla build a traditional SUV and pickup truck on the Cybertruck platform?
- What we think: Tesla does not unveil or release plans about projects on earnings calls, so we doubt there will be much color here from executives. Considering Tesla has put so much weight on autonomy in the U.S., we’re not necessarily convinced it will plan to do much more than Cybercab, and SUV and pickup trucks will likely be built on a different platform as well, if they’re offered at all. Musk isn’t sure about bringing the Model Y L to the U.S. market due to the “advent of self-driving.”

What are the present challenges in bringing Optimus to market, considering app control software, engineering hardware, training general mobility models, training task-specific models, training voice models, implementing manufacturing, and establishing supply chains?
- What we think: This will likely be where Tesla teases the capabilities of Optimus Gen 3, and comes up with some sort of rough date where it could show off the new design. Tesla has been using Optimus in its factories and other internal operations, so it’s likely we’ll hear some stories about that as well. Tesla is looking to refine the Optimus design so it is useful and capable in residential applications, and its hands are likely the biggest bottleneck as they are arguably the most crucial part of the product.

Can you talk about demand stimulation avenues beyond affordability? Given the state of global politics, can Tesla’s brand elevate above the divisiveness and return global perception back to our inspirational roots of ludicrous performance, environmental good, and superior safety?
- What we think: Tesla is going to flex its new Standard offerings now, and the company has been transparent that Musk’s political involvement will wind down in a timely manner, according to the proxy it released when it revealed his pay package.