RBC Capital values Tesla’s progress in autonomy—or Full Self-Driving (FSD)—above the company’s car business. RBC Capital believes that Tesla’s one-month free FSD trial might be a catalyst in Q2 2024.
“Worst case [Tesla FSD] brings folks into the showroom, and best case, it increased the FSD attach rate and possibly increases 3/Y deliveries,” wrote RBC Capital analyst Tom Narayan.
“We also value autonomy above the car business and think that the FSD free trial could potentially be more important for the Tesla investment thesis longer term than Q1’s delivery miss.”
Narayan reiterated the investment bank’s Outperform rating for Tesla and released a price target of $290.00. Last month, he increased Tesla’s price target by $1 from $297 to $298. Despite his positivity toward Tesla, Narayan commented that sentiments toward the company are negative right now since it reported “softer than expected” deliveries.
Tesla’s Q1 2024 deliveries saw an 8.5% year-over-year decline. It delivered approximately 386,810 vehicles in the first quarter. Tesla Model 3 and Model Y vehicles accounted for most vehicle deliveries of 369,783. Other Tesla models, like the Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X, accounted for 17,027 deliveries.
The investment bank enumerated a few factors that might have affected Tesla’s deliveries in the first quarter, including factory shutdowns due to the arson attack at Giga Berlin and shipping issues caused by the Red Sea conflict. It also factored in pre-buy coming into Q4 2203 because the Model 3’s tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) were expiring. However, RBC Capital does wonder if Tesla was also hit by the EV demand slowdown in the United States.
By 2035, RBC Capital predicts that Tesla will sell ~2.5 million vehicles per year in North America, ~800,000 in Western Europe, and ~1.7 million in China. The investment bank also forecasts that Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will account for ~2.3 million units sold yearly, and the Model 2 will account for ~3 million units sold per year at maturity.
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Tesla Cybertruck Dual Motor AWD estimated delivery slips to early fall 2026
Tesla has also added a note on the Cybertruck design page stating that the vehicle’s price will increase after February 28.
Tesla’s estimated delivery window for new Cybertruck Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive (AWD) orders in the United States has shifted to September–October 2026. This suggests that the vehicle’s sub-$60,000 variant is now effectively sold out until then.
The updated timeline was highlighted in a post on X by Tesla watcher Sawyer Merritt, who noted that the estimated delivery window had moved from June 2026 to September-October 2026, “presumably due to strong demand.”
The Dual Motor AWD currently starts at $59,990 before incentives. Tesla has also added a note on the Cybertruck design page stating that the vehicle’s price will increase after February 28.
If demand remains steady, the combination of a later delivery window and a pending price increase suggests Tesla is seeing sustained interest in the newly-introduced Cybertruck configuration. This was highlighted by Elon Musk on X, when he noted that the Cybertruck Dual Motor AWD’s introductory price will only be available for a limited time.
When the Cybertruck was first unveiled in November 2019, Tesla listed the Dual Motor AWD variant at $49,990. Adjusted for inflation, that figure equates to roughly $63,000 in 2026 dollars, based on cumulative U.S. inflation since 2019.
That context makes a potential post-February price in the $64,000 to $65,000 range less surprising, especially as material, labor, and manufacturing costs have shifted significantly over the past several years.
While Tesla has not announced a specific new MSRP, the updated delivery timeline and pricing note together suggest that the Cybertruck Dual Motor AWD could very well be the variant that takes the all-electric full-sized pickup truck to more widespread adoption.
Elon Musk
SpaceX targets 150Mbps per user for upgraded Starlink Direct-to-Cell
If achieved, the 150Mbps goal would represent a significant jump from the current performance of Starlink Direct-to-Cell.
SpaceX is targeting peak download speeds of 150Mbps per user for its next-generation Direct-to-Cell Starlink service. The update was shared by SpaceX Spectrum & Regulatory Affairs Lead Udrivolf Pica during the International Telecommunication Union’s Space Connect conference.
“We are aiming at peak speeds of 150Mbps per user,” Pica said during the conference. “So something incredible if you think about the link budgets from space to the mobile phone.”
If achieved, the 150Mbps goal would represent a significant jump from the current performance of Starlink Direct-to-Cell.
Today, SpaceX’s cellular Starlink service, offered in partnership with T-Mobile under the T-Satellite brand, provides speeds of roughly 4Mbps per user. The service is designed primarily for texts, low-resolution video calls, and select apps in locations that traditionally have no cellular service.
By comparison, Ookla data shows median 5G download speeds of approximately 309Mbps for T-Mobile and 172Mbps for AT&T in the United States, as noted in a PCMag report. While 150Mbps would still trail the fastest terrestrial 5G networks, it would place satellite-to-phone broadband much closer to conventional carrier performance, even in remote areas.
Pica indicated that the upgraded system would support “video, voice, and data services, clearly,” moving beyond emergency connectivity and basic messaging use cases.
To reach that target, SpaceX plans to upgrade its existing Starlink Direct-to-Cell satellites and add significant new capacity. The company recently acquired access to radio spectrum from EchoStar, which Pica described as key to expanding throughput.
“More spectrum means a bigger pipeline, and this means that we can expand what we can do with partners. We can expand the quality of service. And again, we can do cellular broadband basically, cellular broadband use cases, like AI or daily connectivity needs,” he stated.
SpaceX has also requested regulatory approval to deploy 15,000 additional Direct-to-Cell satellites, beyond the roughly 650 currently supporting the system. The upgraded architecture is expected to begin rolling out in late 2027.
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Tesla seeks approval to test FSD Supervised in new Swedish city
Tesla has applied to conduct local Full Self-Driving (Supervised) testing in the city of Jönköping, Sweden.
Tesla has applied to conduct local Full Self-Driving (Supervised) testing in the city of Jönköping, Sweden.
As per local outlet Jönköpings-Posten, Tesla has contacted the municipality with a request to begin FSD (Supervised) tests in the city. The company has already received approval to test its Full Self-Driving (Supervised) software in several Swedish municipalities, as well as on the national road network.
Sofia Bennerstål, Tesla’s Head of Public Policy for Northern Europe, confirmed that an application has been submitted for FSD’s potential tests in Jönköping.
“I can confirm that we have submitted an application, but I cannot say much more about it,” Bennerstål told the news outlet. She also stated that Tesla is “satisfied with the tests” in the region so far.
The planned tests in Jönköping would involve a limited number of Tesla-owned vehicles. Trained Tesla safety drivers would remain behind the wheel and be prepared to intervene if necessary.
Tesla previously began testing in Nacka municipality after receiving local approval. At the time, the company stated that cooperation between authorities, municipalities, and industry enables technological progress and helps integrate future transport systems into real-world traffic conditions, as noted in an Allt Om Elbil report.
If approved, Jönköping would become the latest Swedish municipality to allow local Full Self-Driving (Supervised) testing.
Tesla’s Swedish testing program is part of the company’s efforts to validate its supervised autonomous driving software in everyday traffic environments. Municipal approvals allow Tesla to gather data in urban settings that include roundabouts, complex intersections, and mixed traffic conditions.
Sweden has become an increasingly active testing ground for Tesla’s driver-assistance software in Europe, with regulatory coordination between local authorities and national agencies enabling structured pilot programs.