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DeepSpace: Rocket Lab ready for first commercial launch of 2019, an innovative DARPA spacecraft

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This is a free preview of DeepSpace, Teslarati’s new member-only weekly newsletter. Each week, I’ll be taking a deep-dive into the most exciting developments in commercial space, from satellites and rockets to everything in between.

If you’d like to receive this DeepSpace newsletter and all of our newsletters and membership benefits, you can become a member for as little as $3/month here.

Now approximately four months distant from the inaugural commercial launch of Rocket Lab’s Electron rocket, the company is ready – following many weeks of customer-side delays – to conduct its first launch of 2019, aiming to place an experimental DARPA-funded satellite into low Earth orbit (LEO). 

If all goes as planned with the launch and experimental spacecraft’s orbital operations, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) hopes to use the mission to qualify a currently-untested technology that could ultimately enable the production of massive communications and sensing antennas that can fit on relatively tiny satellites. Known as R3D2 (ha…ha…), the mission also effectively serves as the latest operational debut of DARPA’s growing interest and involvement in spaceflight-related industries, nominally proving that the agency is capable of leaning on established companies and startups to rapidly design, build, and fly satellites. Barring any additional launch delays from DARPA’s preparations, Rocket Lab hopes to launch Electron around the end of this week – likely March 22-24 – to kick off what will hopefully be a busy and productive year for the newly operational launch provider. 

DARPA in Space

  • Originally targeted for sometime in the second half of February, the R3D2 mission – Electron’s fifth planned launch in 18 months – has suffered several weeks of delays due to issues faced by DARPA during satellite delivery and pre-launch preparations.
    • Aside from a general hint that the satellite arrived a few weeks later than planned and an official statement from Rocket Lab that “DARPA’s payload team is conducting final ground station configuration work over the coming days”, the process appears to be going rather smoothly. 
  • Weighing in at roughly 150 kg (330 lb), the R3D2 spacecraft – barring the quiet inclusion of co-passengers – will be the first launch of Electron dedicated to a single satellite. In fact, 150 kg is actually the maximum listed payload that Electron is capable of launching to a 500 km (310 mi) sun-synchronous orbit (SSO), providing a functional ‘ceiling’ for the ultimate destination of DARPA’s satellite.
    • R3D2’s primary purpose will be to extensively test a brand new antenna technology and thus prove (hopefully) that the in-space deployment mechanism and unique material composition function as designed. Likely no more than 1-2 feet (~50 cm) across, the definitively small satellite will attempt to deploy an antenna many times larger than itself. 
    • Made out of a material known as Kapton, the deployable antenna will reach a maximum diameter of 2.25 m (7.4 ft), fairly large even when compared with antennas used on satellites many dozens of times more massive. 

Rocket Lab’s Biggest year yet

  • Although the company is off to a relatively slow start, as many as eleven Electron missions – including R3D2 – are at least tentatively manifested for launches in 2019.
  • In November and December of 2018, Rocket Lab further demonstrated that it is more than capable of a respectable monthly launch cadence, particularly impressive for a rocket conducting its third and fourth missions ever. If Rocket Lab can more or less sustain that cadence after DARPA’s R3D2, the company could ultimately complete as many as 8-10 launches this year.
  • Ultimately, founder and CEO Peter Beck says that Rocket Lab and Electron will eventually target dozens of annual launches per year and a weekly launch cadence from an array of launch facilities.
    • Earlier this year, Rocket Lab officially announced that it had come to an agreement with the state of Virginia to build its second launch complex (LC-2) at Wallops Flight Facility (also known as the Mid-Atlantic Spaceport). If construction proceeds apace, the company’s first US-based Electron launch could occur before the end of 2019.
Rocket Lab’s Electron – built almost entirely out of carbon fiber composites – is an undeniably spectacular rocket, building heavily on New Zealand’s unique global expertise in high-performance composites, an offshoot of a very healthy sailing industry. (Rocket Lab)

  • DARPA’s goal with R3D2 – and its interest in space and small satellites in general – should ultimately benefit the entire spaceflight industry, potentially paving the way for the design and production of small satellites with technical capabilities that far outstretch their compact nature.
    • Reliable and affordable deployable structures are becoming a growing focus of a number of young and old spaceflight companies, ranging from heavyweights like SSL/Maxar to new startups like Oxford Space Systems. 
  • Unlike most modern defense and aerospace technology procurement, DARPA is also distinctly focused on streamlining the process of designing, building, and launching spacecraft. To do so, the agency plans to rely heavily on established commercial entities to optimize speed and affordability will still ultimately producing innovative space systems and pushing the state of the art forward.
  • Aside from closely involved projects like R3D2, DARPA – through a program called Blackjack – is also extremely interested in a number of LEO communications constellations proposed in the last few years by companies like SpaceX, OneWeb, and Telesat, and has already awarded a series of small contracts with several to begin the program’s earliest phases.

Mission Updates

  • Completed on March 8th, SpaceX’s near-flawless Crew Dragon launch, space station rendezvous, and recovery is likely the last of the company’s orbital launch activities for the month of March. 
  • The second launch of Falcon Heavy – the rocket’s commercial debut – is currently expected to occur as early as April 7th
  • After Falcon Heavy, SpaceX has at least one other launch – Cargo Dragon’s CRS-17 resupply mission – firmly scheduled for April (April 25th), as well as the more tenuous possibility of the first dedicated Starlink launch occurring as early as late April.

Photos of the Week: 

NASA posted a series of official photos documenting SpaceX’s Crew Dragon recovery process following the spacecraft’s first successful orbital reentry and splashdown. The photo below (top) offers one of the best (and most detailed) views ever made public of one of the heat shields of a SpaceX Dragon spacecraft, offering a glimpse of the wear the PICA-X material experiences after several minutes of extreme heating and buffeting. (c. NASA/Cory Huston)

Back on land, SpaceX’s South Texas entourage has continued to build the first full-scale Starship prototype – nicknamed Starhopper – in preparation for the vehicle’s inaugural static-fire and hop tests. According to official SpaceX statements, those tests could occur as early as this week, partially confirmed by the first installation of a Raptor engine (serial number 2) on a flight article of any kind.(c. NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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SpaceX showcases exactly how it plans to catch Starship next month

SpaceX played a new Starship Flight 15 simulation showing the ship caught by tower chopsticks.

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Concept video of SpaceX’s Flight 15 Starship held in the launch tower’s chopstick arms after a catch. (Credit: SpaceX)
Concept video of SpaceX’s Flight 15 Starship held in the launch tower’s chopstick arms after a catch. (Credit: SpaceX)

SpaceX gave its clearest look yet at how it plans to catch a Starship upper stage, playing a roughly 80 second animation of the maneuver during its third quarter earnings webcast on Tuesday. The clip ran under an “Up Next: Ship Catch” banner moments after Elon Musk confirmed that Flight 15, expected next month, will try to catch both the Super Heavy booster and the ship with the launch tower.

The animation opens at ground level, looking up through the launch mount at a tower with its chopstick arms spread wide. It then cuts to the ship gliding back through the atmosphere in its horizontal belly flop position, with its forward and aft flaps steering the descent. A wide shot from the Starbase shoreline follows, where the ship is a small dot in the sky before it swings vertical and drops toward the launch towers. The final shots show the ship sliding down past the top of the tower, a close view of the hardware along its side meeting the arms, and the vehicle hanging in the chopsticks.

 

Musk called the catch the step that closes Starship’s reuse loop. “If we succeed, it will be the first time that an orbital launch vehicle has been fully recovered,” he said. He put the odds of success on the first attempt at “more likely than not,” and said SpaceX has “a steady stream of Starship flight attempts through the end of this year” if Flight 15 falls short.

The sequence mirrors work SpaceX has already done with real hardware. In September, Ship 42, the vehicle assigned to Flight 15, was lifted by the Pad 2 chopsticks into a simulated catch position, where crews cycled the arms and connected the ship quick disconnect arm while it hung from the tower. NASASpaceflight has since reported that SpaceX removed Ship 42’s engines before its static fire and sent it back for another cryogenic test.

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Gwynne Shotwell covered the regulatory side on the same call. After what she called “significant constructive engagement with the FAA,” SpaceX expects the Flight 15 license “to include return to launch site and tower catch for both stages.” Bringing the ship home means reentering toward land instead of the open ocean, which Musk said in February would only happen once the chance of the ship breaking up over land was very low, after two perfect soft landings at sea.

SpaceX has caught Super Heavy with the tower three times, on Flights 5, 7 and 8, but the ship returns from orbit at far higher speed and has never been caught. Flight 14 on September 28 was the first Starship to reach orbit, and it deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites before splashing down, a mission SpaceX counted as its first revenue flight in the Q3 results it reported Tuesday.

The timing lines up with what Musk told the crowd at Giga Texas earlier this month, when he said Flight 15 would probably launch a little before Thanksgiving and that Flight 16 could refly both stages. On Tuesday’s call he went further, saying Starship should fly weekly at some point in the first half of 2027 and twice weekly or more by the end of next year as SpaceX works toward landing a rocket and launching it again with no refurbishment.

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Elon Musk just confirmed the Tesla and SpaceX merger step everyone was waiting for

Tesla and SpaceX formed special committees to weigh a merger, and Elon Musk supports it.

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Elon Musk confirmed Tuesday that Tesla and SpaceX have each formed special committees of independent directors to study a possible merger, the first formal step toward combining the two companies after months of speculation.

Musk made the disclosure during SpaceX’s third quarter earnings call. “Both SpaceX and Tesla have formed special committees to discuss this idea at the request of shareholders,” he said. “Because I’m a conflicted party, I can’t actually be in the discussions of the special committees.” He described the setup as “an odd kabuki dance where two groups of people are talking and I can’t be in the conversation.”

Musk did not hide where he stands. “Do I think it would be a good idea? Yes,” he said, pointing to shared work on super intelligence software, chip design, the Terafab facility in Austin, robotics, mass to orbit and connectivity. “I do think there’s a lot of merit to combining the companies as we are pretty much in the super intelligence singularity.”

He also tried to cool expectations. The committees have not agreed on terms for any transaction, and Musk said assuming a merger is a certainty “would be overstating it.” Any deal would go to shareholders, and on the Tesla side it would need approval from 50 percent of all outstanding shares, not just the shares that are voted. Musk called that “quite a high hurdle.”

That bar has tripped Tesla up before. The company’s 2025 attempt to declassify its board won support from only 39.4 percent of outstanding shares and failed. Musk’s own voting stake sits near 20 percent after he exercised his 2018 options in June, so a deal would need broad backing from institutions and a retail base that often leaves votes uncast.

Timing is another open question. Tesla filed its proxy statement Monday for its December 3 annual meeting, and the ballot has only three items: director elections for Musk, Robyn Denholm and JB Straubel, a say on pay vote and auditor ratification. Barclays analyst Dan Levy had argued that an announcement would need to land by late October or early November to make the annual meeting, as Teslarati noted in its SpaceX earnings preview. With no terms agreed, any vote would likely require its own special meeting.

Elon Musk gives his most telling Tesla-SpaceX merger conversation yet

Musk has been edging toward this for weeks. At the All-In Summit in September, he asked “who can imagine what action one might take when there’s so much close collaboration,” Teslarati reported. Last week’s Roadster unveil, built around SpaceX derived cold gas thrusters, pushed the talk further. The two companies already share the Terafab chip project, and Tesla holds a small SpaceX stake that came from its earlier investment in xAI.

SpaceX brought strong numbers to the conversation. It reported Q3 revenue of $14.58 billion, up 161 percent year over year, with its Super Intelligence segment now its largest at $7.56 billion. A higher SpaceX valuation would shape any exchange ratio Tesla holders are offered.

Tesla reports its own third quarter results after the close on Wednesday, October 21. Investors had already ranked merger timing among the top retail questions for SpaceX’s call, and the committees will almost certainly come up again on Tesla’s.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX delivers blockbuster Q3 results as Super Intelligence segment booms

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX reported its third-quarter 2026 financial results on October 20, posting the company’s first solidly profitable quarter since going public earlier in the year under the ticker $SPCX.

Revenue reached $14.58 billion, up 161 percent year-over-year from $5.6 billion, and well ahead of consensus estimates in the $12.7 to $12.9 billion range. The results highlight a rapid shift in SpaceX’s center of gravity toward artificial intelligence/super intelligence, while Starlink and traditional space operations continue to show robust progress.

Here are the key financial results for the quarter:

  • Revenue of $14.58 billion (+161% YoY)
  • Adjusted EBITDA of $8.8 billion (+306% YoY)
  • GAAP net income of $4.4 billion (versus a $1.1 billion net loss in the prior-year quarter)
  • Adjusted EPS of approximately $0.35 (versus roughly $0.13–0.16 expected)
  • Income from operations of $2.8 billion

The AI/SI segment generated $7.56 billion in revenue, an 830 percent year-over-year increase, making it the company’s largest segment for the first time. Growth was primarily driven by the activation of major cloud services agreements, the integration of Cursor (acquired earlier in 2026), and rising usage of Grok models and the newly introduced Grok Bot personal agent.

SI adjusted EBITDA reached $5 billion, and nameplate compute capacity stood at 1.7 GW at quarter-end, up from 1.4 GW in June and 0.6 GW a year earlier. Capital expenditures totaled $19.6 billion, with the majority allocated to AI infrastructure, including continued expansion of the Colossus facilities.

The Connectivity segment, which primarily surrounds Starlink, produced $5.25 billion in revenue, a 69 percent year-over-year and 22 percent sequentially. These are pleasant results to see and expected, considering how many airlines have adopted Starlink over the past year.

Starlink consumer subscribers reached 13.6 million, an 89 percent increase from the prior year, and a sequential gain of 1.6 million. Consumer average revenue per user improved to $69. Meanwhile, Enterprise and Government revenue also grew strongly, and Starlink is now installed on more than 3,800 aircraft, making internet more accessible and better performing than previous options.

The Space segment also performed well and contributed $1.77 billion in revenue, up 6 percent year-over-year and 84 percent sequentially. A major milestone was the successful first revenue-generating Starship mission (Flight 14), which deployed 26 V3 Starlink satellites. Those satellites added roughly 10 times the downlink capacity of a typical Falcon 9 Starlink launch.

SpaceX completed 12 customer launches during the quarter, including NASA’s Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope mission, and continued to grow its backlog of crewed, national security, and commercial flights.

CFO commentary noted that the combination of launch leadership, recurring Starlink revenue, and rapid SI expansion is producing meaningful operating leverage.

The company ended the quarter with roughly $90 billion in cash and marketable securities, providing substantial resources for ongoing investment while targeting an investment-grade balance sheet. Sequential revenue nearly doubled from the $7.81 billion reported in the second quarter, illustrating the pace of the AI-driven acceleration. Things are looking strong for SpaceX.

What’s incredibly striking is the fact that SI has grown to be larger than the rest of the company in such a short amount of time. CEO Elon Musk said on the earnings call that Grok Bot is the “fastest-growing product I’ve ever seen,” so it seems that it could be a true keystone of SpaceXSI over the next few years.

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