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DeepSpace: Rocket Lab ready for first commercial launch of 2019, an innovative DARPA spacecraft
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Now approximately four months distant from the inaugural commercial launch of Rocket Lab’s Electron rocket, the company is ready – following many weeks of customer-side delays – to conduct its first launch of 2019, aiming to place an experimental DARPA-funded satellite into low Earth orbit (LEO).
If all goes as planned with the launch and experimental spacecraft’s orbital operations, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) hopes to use the mission to qualify a currently-untested technology that could ultimately enable the production of massive communications and sensing antennas that can fit on relatively tiny satellites. Known as R3D2 (ha…ha…), the mission also effectively serves as the latest operational debut of DARPA’s growing interest and involvement in spaceflight-related industries, nominally proving that the agency is capable of leaning on established companies and startups to rapidly design, build, and fly satellites. Barring any additional launch delays from DARPA’s preparations, Rocket Lab hopes to launch Electron around the end of this week – likely March 22-24 – to kick off what will hopefully be a busy and productive year for the newly operational launch provider.
DARPA in Space
- Originally targeted for sometime in the second half of February, the R3D2 mission – Electron’s fifth planned launch in 18 months – has suffered several weeks of delays due to issues faced by DARPA during satellite delivery and pre-launch preparations.
- Aside from a general hint that the satellite arrived a few weeks later than planned and an official statement from Rocket Lab that “DARPA’s payload team is conducting final ground station configuration work over the coming days”, the process appears to be going rather smoothly.
- Weighing in at roughly 150 kg (330 lb), the R3D2 spacecraft – barring the quiet inclusion of co-passengers – will be the first launch of Electron dedicated to a single satellite. In fact, 150 kg is actually the maximum listed payload that Electron is capable of launching to a 500 km (310 mi) sun-synchronous orbit (SSO), providing a functional ‘ceiling’ for the ultimate destination of DARPA’s satellite.
- R3D2’s primary purpose will be to extensively test a brand new antenna technology and thus prove (hopefully) that the in-space deployment mechanism and unique material composition function as designed. Likely no more than 1-2 feet (~50 cm) across, the definitively small satellite will attempt to deploy an antenna many times larger than itself.
- Made out of a material known as Kapton, the deployable antenna will reach a maximum diameter of 2.25 m (7.4 ft), fairly large even when compared with antennas used on satellites many dozens of times more massive.
Rocket Lab’s Biggest year yet
- Although the company is off to a relatively slow start, as many as eleven Electron missions – including R3D2 – are at least tentatively manifested for launches in 2019.
- In November and December of 2018, Rocket Lab further demonstrated that it is more than capable of a respectable monthly launch cadence, particularly impressive for a rocket conducting its third and fourth missions ever. If Rocket Lab can more or less sustain that cadence after DARPA’s R3D2, the company could ultimately complete as many as 8-10 launches this year.
- Ultimately, founder and CEO Peter Beck says that Rocket Lab and Electron will eventually target dozens of annual launches per year and a weekly launch cadence from an array of launch facilities.
- Earlier this year, Rocket Lab officially announced that it had come to an agreement with the state of Virginia to build its second launch complex (LC-2) at Wallops Flight Facility (also known as the Mid-Atlantic Spaceport). If construction proceeds apace, the company’s first US-based Electron launch could occur before the end of 2019.
- DARPA’s goal with R3D2 – and its interest in space and small satellites in general – should ultimately benefit the entire spaceflight industry, potentially paving the way for the design and production of small satellites with technical capabilities that far outstretch their compact nature.
- Reliable and affordable deployable structures are becoming a growing focus of a number of young and old spaceflight companies, ranging from heavyweights like SSL/Maxar to new startups like Oxford Space Systems.
- Unlike most modern defense and aerospace technology procurement, DARPA is also distinctly focused on streamlining the process of designing, building, and launching spacecraft. To do so, the agency plans to rely heavily on established commercial entities to optimize speed and affordability will still ultimately producing innovative space systems and pushing the state of the art forward.
- Aside from closely involved projects like R3D2, DARPA – through a program called Blackjack – is also extremely interested in a number of LEO communications constellations proposed in the last few years by companies like SpaceX, OneWeb, and Telesat, and has already awarded a series of small contracts with several to begin the program’s earliest phases.
Mission Updates
- Completed on March 8th, SpaceX’s near-flawless Crew Dragon launch, space station rendezvous, and recovery is likely the last of the company’s orbital launch activities for the month of March.
- The second launch of Falcon Heavy – the rocket’s commercial debut – is currently expected to occur as early as April 7th
- After Falcon Heavy, SpaceX has at least one other launch – Cargo Dragon’s CRS-17 resupply mission – firmly scheduled for April (April 25th), as well as the more tenuous possibility of the first dedicated Starlink launch occurring as early as late April.
Photos of the Week:
NASA posted a series of official photos documenting SpaceX’s Crew Dragon recovery process following the spacecraft’s first successful orbital reentry and splashdown. The photo below (top) offers one of the best (and most detailed) views ever made public of one of the heat shields of a SpaceX Dragon spacecraft, offering a glimpse of the wear the PICA-X material experiences after several minutes of extreme heating and buffeting. (c. NASA/Cory Huston)
Back on land, SpaceX’s South Texas entourage has continued to build the first full-scale Starship prototype – nicknamed Starhopper – in preparation for the vehicle’s inaugural static-fire and hop tests. According to official SpaceX statements, those tests could occur as early as this week, partially confirmed by the first installation of a Raptor engine (serial number 2) on a flight article of any kind.(c. NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)
Elon Musk
Trump’s invite for Elon just reshuffled Tesla’s big Signature Delivery Event
Tesla rescheduled its final Model S farewell to May 20 after Musk joined Trump in China.
Tesla has rescheduled its Model S and Model X Signature Edition delivery event to Wednesday, May 20, 2026, after abruptly calling off the original May 12 celebration. The event will take place at Tesla’s factory at 45500 Fremont Boulevard in Fremont, California, the same location where the Model S first rolled off the line in 2012. Invitees received a follow-up email asking them to reconfirm attendance and download a new QR code ticket, with Tesla noting that all travel and accommodation expenses remain the buyer’s responsibility.
The reason behind the original cancellation came into focus the same day it was announced. President Trump invited Elon Musk, Apple’s Tim Cook, BlackRock’s Larry Fink, Boeing’s Kelly Ortberg, and executives from Goldman Sachs, Blackstone, Citigroup, and Meta to join his trip to China this week for a summit with President Xi Jinping. The agenda covers trade, artificial intelligence, export controls, Taiwan, and the Iran war, following weeks of escalating friction between Washington and Beijing over AI technology, sanctions, and rare earth exports. Trump wrote on Truth Social, “I am very much looking forward to my trip to China, an amazing Country, with a Leader, President Xi, respected by all.”
Tesla launches 200mph Model S “Gold” Signature in invite-only purchase
The vehicles at the center of all this are the last Model S and Model X units Tesla will ever build. Priced at $159,420 each, the 250 Model S and 100 Model X Signature Edition units come finished in Garnet Red with a one-year no-resale agreement, giving Tesla right of first refusal if the owner decides to sell. As Teslarati reported, the Model S defined Tesla’s early identity as a serious luxury automaker, and the Fremont factory line that built it is now being converted to manufacture Optimus humanoid robots.
Musk’s inclusion in the China delegation drew attention given his very public relationship with Trump, and the invitation signals the two have moved past and past grievances. Trump originally brought Musk on to lead the Department of Government Efficiency following his inauguration, and despite a sharp public dispute in mid-2025, the two have appeared together repeatedly in recent months. A seat on the China trip, the most diplomatically consequential visit of Trump’s current term, puts Musk back at the table on U.S. economic policy at a moment when Tesla’s China revenue remains one of the company’s most important financial pillars.
Tesla has launched a new solution to a rare but relevant Supercharger problem with a new Virtual Waitlist, a remedy that will solve sequencing confusion when there is a line to charge at one of the company’s locations.
Teslarati reported on what we called the Virtual Queue last month. In rare occurrences, there were physical altercations at Superchargers when someone might have cut in line to charge. Tesla started to develop some sort of system that would resolve this issue, and now it is finally rolling it out.
Tesla launches solution to end Supercharger fights once and for all
It will start with a Pilot Program, and Tesla is calling it the ‘Waitlist.’
Announced on May 11 on the official TeslaCharging X account, the pilot program is currently active at sites in Los Gatos, Mountain View, and San Francisco in California, as well as San Jose, CA, and the Bronx, NY (East Gun Hill Road). Drivers are encouraged to share feedback directly through the Tesla app to refine the system before a potential broader rollout.
We’re now testing a new waitlist feature at 5 Supercharger sites. Share feedback through the Tesla app to help us make it better.
– Los Gatos, CA – Los Gatos Boulevard
– Mountain View, CA – El Monte Avenue
– San Francisco, CA – Lombard Street
– San Jose, CA – Saratoga Avenue
-… pic.twitter.com/epTVzpJxgW— Tesla Charging (@TeslaCharging) May 11, 2026
Tesla released the video above to showcase the feature, which automatically joins the waitlist when your vehicle has the Supercharger with the wait as the destination in the navigation. There is also a notification that lets you know your place in line.
In this specific example, the video shows that the wait is less than five minutes, and that there are two cars ahead of the one in the video:
Credit: Tesla
Having a wait at a Supercharger is relatively rare, but it does happen. It is even more frequent now that there are more EVs allowed to use the Supercharger Network. Those non-Tesla EVs can also join the queue, as Tesla added in its social media release of the pilot program that they can join the waitlist using the Tesla app.
The release of this program should help alleviate the rare risk of incidents at Superchargers. Tesla will expand this program as it sees fit, and it gathers valuable data and reviews from users.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Optimus is already benefiting investors, top Wall Street firm says
Piper Sandler has updated its detailed valuation model for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), concluding that at recent share prices around $400–$420, investors are essentially acquiring the company’s ambitious Optimus humanoid robot project at no extra cost.
Tesla Optimus is already benefiting investors from a fiscal standpoint, at least that is what Alexander Potter at Piper Sandler, a top Wall Street firm covering the company, says.
Piper Sandler has updated its detailed valuation model for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), concluding that at recent share prices around $400–$420, investors are essentially acquiring the company’s ambitious Optimus humanoid robot project at no extra cost.
Analyst Alexander Potter, in the firm’s latest “Definitive Guide to Investing in Tesla,” built a comprehensive framework covering 17 separate product lines.
This granular approach values Tesla’s core businesses—including electric vehicles, energy storage, Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, in-house insurance, Supercharging network, and a standalone robotaxi operation—at approximately $400 per share, without assigning any value to Optimus or related inference-as-a-service opportunities.
“At $400/share, we think investors can buy Optimus for ‘free,’” Potter stated in the note. Piper Sandler maintained its Overweight rating on Tesla shares and a $500 price target, which implicitly attributes roughly $100 per share to the robot-related businesses— a figure the analyst views as potentially conservative.
The updated model incorporates elements often overlooked by other sell-side analysts, such as detailed forecasts for Tesla’s insurance operations, Supercharger revenue, and a distinct valuation for the robotaxi business separate from FSD software licensing. It also accounts for Tesla’s 2025 CEO compensation plan for the first time.
Potter acknowledged that his estimates for 2026 and 2027 fall below Wall Street consensus, citing factors like declining deliveries from certain discontinued models and reduced regulatory credit income.
However, he expressed limited concern, noting that traditional vehicle delivery metrics are expected to matter less over time as FSD subscriber growth and robotaxi deployment metrics gain prominence. On Optimus specifically, Potter suggested the humanoid robot program, combined with inference services, “arguably will be worth more than Tesla’s other businesses combined,” though the firm has not yet produced formal long-term forecasts for these segments.
Tesla shares have traded near the $400 range in recent sessions, reflecting ongoing investor focus on the company’s autonomous driving progress and expansion into robotics and AI. The Optimus project remains in early development stages, with Tesla aiming to deploy the robots initially for internal factory tasks before broader commercial applications.
This Piper Sandler analysis highlights the growing emphasis among some investors and analysts on Tesla’s long-term technology platform potential beyond its current automotive and energy businesses.
As with any forward-looking valuation, outcomes will depend on execution timelines, technological breakthroughs, regulatory approvals for autonomous systems, and market adoption of humanoid robotics—areas that carry significant uncertainty and execution risk.
The note underscores a common theme in Tesla coverage: differing views on how to quantify emerging high-growth opportunities like robotics within the company’s overall enterprise value. Investors are advised to consider their own risk tolerance and conduct thorough due diligence regarding these speculative elements.
Trump’s invite for Elon just reshuffled Tesla’s big Signature Delivery Event
Tesla launches its solution to rare but relevant Supercharger problem
