News
DeepSpace: Rocket Lab ready for first commercial launch of 2019, an innovative DARPA spacecraft
This is a free preview of DeepSpace, Teslarati’s new member-only weekly newsletter. Each week, I’ll be taking a deep-dive into the most exciting developments in commercial space, from satellites and rockets to everything in between.
If you’d like to receive this DeepSpace newsletter and all of our newsletters and membership benefits, you can become a member for as little as $3/month here.
Now approximately four months distant from the inaugural commercial launch of Rocket Lab’s Electron rocket, the company is ready – following many weeks of customer-side delays – to conduct its first launch of 2019, aiming to place an experimental DARPA-funded satellite into low Earth orbit (LEO).
If all goes as planned with the launch and experimental spacecraft’s orbital operations, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) hopes to use the mission to qualify a currently-untested technology that could ultimately enable the production of massive communications and sensing antennas that can fit on relatively tiny satellites. Known as R3D2 (ha…ha…), the mission also effectively serves as the latest operational debut of DARPA’s growing interest and involvement in spaceflight-related industries, nominally proving that the agency is capable of leaning on established companies and startups to rapidly design, build, and fly satellites. Barring any additional launch delays from DARPA’s preparations, Rocket Lab hopes to launch Electron around the end of this week – likely March 22-24 – to kick off what will hopefully be a busy and productive year for the newly operational launch provider.
DARPA in Space
- Originally targeted for sometime in the second half of February, the R3D2 mission – Electron’s fifth planned launch in 18 months – has suffered several weeks of delays due to issues faced by DARPA during satellite delivery and pre-launch preparations.
- Aside from a general hint that the satellite arrived a few weeks later than planned and an official statement from Rocket Lab that “DARPA’s payload team is conducting final ground station configuration work over the coming days”, the process appears to be going rather smoothly.
- Weighing in at roughly 150 kg (330 lb), the R3D2 spacecraft – barring the quiet inclusion of co-passengers – will be the first launch of Electron dedicated to a single satellite. In fact, 150 kg is actually the maximum listed payload that Electron is capable of launching to a 500 km (310 mi) sun-synchronous orbit (SSO), providing a functional ‘ceiling’ for the ultimate destination of DARPA’s satellite.
- R3D2’s primary purpose will be to extensively test a brand new antenna technology and thus prove (hopefully) that the in-space deployment mechanism and unique material composition function as designed. Likely no more than 1-2 feet (~50 cm) across, the definitively small satellite will attempt to deploy an antenna many times larger than itself.
- Made out of a material known as Kapton, the deployable antenna will reach a maximum diameter of 2.25 m (7.4 ft), fairly large even when compared with antennas used on satellites many dozens of times more massive.
Rocket Lab’s Biggest year yet
- Although the company is off to a relatively slow start, as many as eleven Electron missions – including R3D2 – are at least tentatively manifested for launches in 2019.
- In November and December of 2018, Rocket Lab further demonstrated that it is more than capable of a respectable monthly launch cadence, particularly impressive for a rocket conducting its third and fourth missions ever. If Rocket Lab can more or less sustain that cadence after DARPA’s R3D2, the company could ultimately complete as many as 8-10 launches this year.
- Ultimately, founder and CEO Peter Beck says that Rocket Lab and Electron will eventually target dozens of annual launches per year and a weekly launch cadence from an array of launch facilities.
- Earlier this year, Rocket Lab officially announced that it had come to an agreement with the state of Virginia to build its second launch complex (LC-2) at Wallops Flight Facility (also known as the Mid-Atlantic Spaceport). If construction proceeds apace, the company’s first US-based Electron launch could occur before the end of 2019.
- DARPA’s goal with R3D2 – and its interest in space and small satellites in general – should ultimately benefit the entire spaceflight industry, potentially paving the way for the design and production of small satellites with technical capabilities that far outstretch their compact nature.
- Reliable and affordable deployable structures are becoming a growing focus of a number of young and old spaceflight companies, ranging from heavyweights like SSL/Maxar to new startups like Oxford Space Systems.
- Unlike most modern defense and aerospace technology procurement, DARPA is also distinctly focused on streamlining the process of designing, building, and launching spacecraft. To do so, the agency plans to rely heavily on established commercial entities to optimize speed and affordability will still ultimately producing innovative space systems and pushing the state of the art forward.
- Aside from closely involved projects like R3D2, DARPA – through a program called Blackjack – is also extremely interested in a number of LEO communications constellations proposed in the last few years by companies like SpaceX, OneWeb, and Telesat, and has already awarded a series of small contracts with several to begin the program’s earliest phases.
Mission Updates
- Completed on March 8th, SpaceX’s near-flawless Crew Dragon launch, space station rendezvous, and recovery is likely the last of the company’s orbital launch activities for the month of March.
- The second launch of Falcon Heavy – the rocket’s commercial debut – is currently expected to occur as early as April 7th
- After Falcon Heavy, SpaceX has at least one other launch – Cargo Dragon’s CRS-17 resupply mission – firmly scheduled for April (April 25th), as well as the more tenuous possibility of the first dedicated Starlink launch occurring as early as late April.
Photos of the Week:
NASA posted a series of official photos documenting SpaceX’s Crew Dragon recovery process following the spacecraft’s first successful orbital reentry and splashdown. The photo below (top) offers one of the best (and most detailed) views ever made public of one of the heat shields of a SpaceX Dragon spacecraft, offering a glimpse of the wear the PICA-X material experiences after several minutes of extreme heating and buffeting. (c. NASA/Cory Huston)
Back on land, SpaceX’s South Texas entourage has continued to build the first full-scale Starship prototype – nicknamed Starhopper – in preparation for the vehicle’s inaugural static-fire and hop tests. According to official SpaceX statements, those tests could occur as early as this week, partially confirmed by the first installation of a Raptor engine (serial number 2) on a flight article of any kind.(c. NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)
Elon Musk has firmly denied recent media reports suggesting that SpaceX has reduced its target valuation for an upcoming initial public offering.
The denial came directly from the SpaceX and Tesla frontman on his social media platform X, where he responded with a single word, “False,” to a post from ZeroHedge that cited Bloomberg sources.
This swift rebuttal underscores Musk’s ongoing effort to manage speculation surrounding one of the most anticipated market debuts in recent history.
False
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 29, 2026
According to the disputed reports, SpaceX had lowered its IPO valuation goal to at least $1.8 trillion from previous ambitions exceeding $2 trillion.
The claims emerged amid growing anticipation for the company’s confidential S-1 filing, which positions it for a potential public listing as early as June.
Some had pointed to strong revenue growth, particularly from the Starlink satellite internet service, which contributed heavily to the firm’s 2025 figures of $18.7 billion. Yet challenges persist in other areas, including substantial investments and losses tied to ambitious projects like Starship development and artificial intelligence initiatives, which plan to make life multiplanetary eventually.
Musk’s response highlights a pattern in which he actively counters what he views as inaccurate portrayals of his companies’ trajectories.
SpaceX, already valued privately at extraordinary levels, stands as a cornerstone of Musk’s empire alongside Tesla and xAI. The entrepreneur has long emphasized the transformative potential of reusable rockets and global broadband access, factors that fuel investor enthusiasm despite operational hurdles.
By rejecting the valuation downgrade narrative, Musk signals confidence in SpaceX’s fundamentals and its readiness for public markets on terms favorable to its long-term vision. People have been waiting a very long time to invest in SpaceX, and the valuation, as well as the introductory share price, is not going to need adjusting.
They’ll have plenty of suitors.
This episode reflects broader dynamics in the technology sector, where rumors often swirl around high-profile entities. Musk’s direct engagement with media narratives serves to maintain transparency and control the narrative around his ventures.
As SpaceX prepares for greater scrutiny in public markets, the founder’s denial reinforces optimism about its prospects. Supporters argue that the company’s innovative edge positions it for enduring success, far beyond short-term valuation debates. With the denial now public, attention turns to forthcoming regulatory filings that could provide clearer insights into SpaceX’s strategy and financial health.
The coming weeks promise to reveal more about how SpaceX will transition into a publicly traded powerhouse.
Tesla’s dreams of operating a fully autonomous ride-hailing platform just took a massive step toward reality, as two separate events have indicated the company is perhaps closer than ever to achieving self-driving as a product.
On Thursday, Tesla was granted authorization by the State of Texas to operate driverless vehicles in a commercial manner. On May 28, Senate Bill 2807, passed by the 89th Texas Legislature, took effect after being passed back on September 1, 2025.
The bill establishes a statewide regulatory framework requiring authorization from the Texas Department of Motor Vehicles for companies to operate automated vehicles commercially on Texas roads.
This covers driverless, or SAE Level 4+, operations for passenger transport, meaning Robotaxi, or freight.
Tesla and other companies can self-certify their vehicles and tech as long as they:
- Operate in compliance with Texas traffic laws
- Maintain proper registration, title, and insurance
- Use compliant automated driving systems
- Record onboard activity and handle system failures and glitches safely.
The new authorization, which was first reported by James Stephenson on X, allows companies to utilize their own processes to determine if their vehicles are ready to operate without drivers.
🚨BREAKING:
Tesla has been authorized by the State of Texas to operate driverless vehicles commercially under the new law that took effect today, May 28th, 2026. Tesla has officially self-certified the software running on its robotaxis as Level 4. $TSLA pic.twitter.com/KSJdsvlaW5— James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough) May 28, 2026
It is a rule that expedites the entire approval process, keeping agencies out of a usually long, lengthy, and frustrating task that is essential to technological advancements. It essentially means Tesla can launch commercial Robotaxi operations at this point.
On the very same day, Tesla continued the momentum as CEO Elon Musk shared a video of Cybercab units autonomously driving off the property at Gigafactory Texas. This is a major step in the story of the Cybercab.
Mass production of the Cybercab started at Giga Texas in April, and it is already heading out of the factory on its own.
Cybercab driving itself out of the GigaTexas factory pic.twitter.com/EwAMVVDjYy
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 28, 2026
These two major events mark a drastic step forward in Tesla’s progress toward Cybercab and the permissions it needs to operate a self-driving ride-hailing service. Tesla is now able to operate autonomously under Texas law by self-certifying, and with the potentially imminent rollout of Cybercab, Tesla’s autonomous dreams are starting to take serious shape.
Elon Musk
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
Tesla and SpaceX may be closer to merging than Wall Street or either company is admitting.
Elon Musk has reportedly discussed merging Tesla and SpaceX with people close to him, according to CNBC, which cited sources familiar with the conversation. Tesla employees have long expected such a transaction and the topic is openly discussed internally, according to internal sources. With SpaceX is days away from kicking off its Wall Street roadshow for what could be the largest IPO in market history, this would be the first time the company will have public market currency to execute a stock-for-stock deal with Tesla.
The financial logic for a merger would make sense. A combined SpaceX and Tesla would create a conglomerate spanning rockets, satellites, electric vehicles, AI infrastructure, and energy storage valued at roughly $3.35 trillion to $3.6 trillion based on SpaceX’s IPO target range and Tesla’s current market capitalization. The two companies are already more intertwined than most people realize. SpaceX bought $697 million worth of Tesla Megapack systems for xAI data centers and $131 million worth of Cybertrucks. Tesla invested $2 billion in xAI, which subsequently merged with SpaceX. Past transactions also include Tesla selling solar equipment and parts to SpaceX, and SpaceX helping with Cybertruck materials.
Will Tesla join the fold? Predicting a triple merger with SpaceX and xAI
Musk himself signaled where this was heading in November 2025 when he posted on X, “My companies are, surprisingly in some ways, trending towards convergence.” Tesla and SpaceX announced a joint semiconductor fabrication facility in Austin called Terafab on the Gigafactory Texas campus, covering two advanced chip factories, with one serving Tesla’s AI needs for vehicles and Optimus robots, the other targeting space-based data centers under SpaceX’s infrastructure vision.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives places the probability of a merger at 80% to 90% with a target completion in the first half of 2027. The mechanics of a deal became possible the moment SpaceX filed its S-1. Legal experts said a merger likely would not spark antitrust issues but would raise concerns among shareholders in each company, with questions around which company would be the parent, how a stock swap would take place, and who determines the appropriate price. Musk holds about 20% of Tesla’s equity but controls 85.1% of SpaceX’s voting power through a super-voting share class, meaning he would largely be negotiating the terms with himself.
Not everyone is convinced the timing is imminent. Traders on Kalshi place only 33% odds that a merger will happen before May 2027. The more immediate concern for Tesla shareholders is whether the SpaceX IPO pulls capital and Musk’s attention away from Tesla before any merger consolidates the upside for both.
What is clear is that the structural groundwork is already being laid. The Terafab announcement, the xAI merger, the shared supply chain, the cross-company balance sheet transactions, and now the IPO all point in the same direction. Whether the merger follows in 2027 or later, the two companies are already operating more like divisions of a single entity than independent competitors.
Elon Musk strikes down reports on SpaceX IPO rumors
Tesla’s Robotaxi dreams just took a massive step toward reality
