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SpaceX ready for 31st Starlink launch of 2022
SpaceX is on track to launch its 31st Starlink mission of 2022 later this morning.
No earlier than (NET) 10:50 am EDT (14:50 UTC) on Thursday, October 20th, a Falcon 9 rocket is scheduled to lift off from SpaceX’s Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) LC-40 launch pad with 54 internet satellites in tow. Weighing in at 16.75 tons (~36,900 lb), the batch of Starlink V1.5 satellites is one of just a few left for SpaceX to complete the second of five ‘shells’ that make up its first constellation.
Even before today’s Starlink 4-36 launch, more than two-thirds of the 4408 satellites required to complete the constellation are already in orbit and (by all appearances) working as expected. Of the 3131 working satellites in orbit, approximately 2700 are at their operational altitudes and theoretically capable of serving customers on Earth. Another ~390 satellites are in the process of climbing to their operational orbits. Once they’re done, SpaceX’s first Starlink constellation will be more than two-thirds complete.
The constellation is made up of five orbital ‘shells’ – distinct groups of satellites that share a similar orbital inclination (the angle between the satellite’s orbit and Earth’s equator) and altitude. Two of those shells, known as Group 1 and Group 4, contain 3168 satellites or more than two-thirds of the constellation. They’re nearly identical and focus on Earth’s mid-latitudes, where almost every person (and customer) on Earth resides. Both are almost complete: astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell estimates that 1456 of 1584 possible Group 1 satellites are operational. Group 4 is one launch behind, with about 1405 working satellites in orbit.
In addition to Starlink 4-36, SpaceX has one more Starlink launch (4-31) tentatively scheduled in late October. The company’s November manifest is jam-packed with up to five commercial launches, potentially precluding any additional Starlink launches next month. December could be an even more commercially productive month if just a handful of schedules hold. But there’s a chance that SpaceX will find space to complete two more Starlink launches within the next ten weeks, allowing it to nearly complete Group 4 by the end of the year.
Once #4 is complete, all future launches for SpaceX’s first-generation Starlink constellation will likely head to one of three shells with semi-polar or polar inclinations. Group 2, the largest of the remaining shells with a planned 720 satellites, can be launched from any of SpaceX’s three pads. SpaceX has already launched one batch of Group 2 satellites and will need to complete ~13 more launches to finish the shell. Finally, more than half of Group 3’s 348 satellites have already been launched, but SpaceX has yet to start Group 5 (172 satellites). Both Group 3 and Group 5 will likely be launched out of SpaceX’s California launch pad.
Including an allowance for several dozen on-orbit satellite failures over the same period, SpaceX’s first Starlink constellation thus appears to be about 23 launches away from completion. If SpaceX matches its 2022 cadence in 2023, the entire 4408-satellite constellation could be fully operational before the end of next year. If SpaceX can hit its target of 100 total launches in 2023, the first Starlink constellation could be fully operational months before the end of 2023.
Even with a third of its satellites still on the ground, Starlink is close to an order of magnitude larger than any other constellation in history. Confirming an estimate shared by Teslarati earlier this year, CEO Elon Musk says that SpaceX now owns and operates more than half of all active satellites in orbit less than three years after the company began operational Starlink launches.
Tune in below to watch SpaceX’s 31st Starlink mission and 48th launch this year.
Tesla analyst Gary Black of The Future Fund claims that the company is making a big mistake getting rid of the Model S and Model X. Instead, he believes another vehicle within the company’s lineup should be discontinued: the Cybertruck.
Black divested The Future Fund from all Tesla holdings last year, but he still covers the stock as an analyst as it falls in the technology and autonomy sectors, which he covers.
In a new comment on Thursday, Black said the Cybertruck should be the vehicle Tesla gets rid of due to the negatives it has drawn to the company.
The Cybertruck is also selling in an underwhelming fashion considering the production capacity Tesla has set aside for it. It’s worth noting it is still the best-selling electric pickup on the market, and it has outlasted other EV truck projects as other manufacturers are receding their efforts.
Black said:
“IMHO it’s a mistake to keep Tesla Cybertruck which has negative brand equity and sold 10,000 units last year, and discontinue S/X which have strong repeat brand loyalty and together sold 30K units and are highly profitable. Why not discontinue CT and covert S/X to be fully autonomous?”
IMHO it’s a mistake to keep $TSLA Cybertruck which has negative brand equity and sold 10,000 units last year, and discontinue S/X which have strong repeat brand loyalty and together sold 30K units and are highly profitable. Why not discontinue CT and covert S/X to be fully…
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) January 29, 2026
On Wednesday, CEO Elon Musk confirmed that Tesla planned to transition Model S and Model X production lines at the Fremont Factory to handle manufacturing efforts of the Optimus Gen 3 robot.
Musk said that it was time to wind down the S and X programs “with an honorable discharge,” also noting that the two cars are not major contributors to Tesla’s mission any longer, as its automotive division is more focused on autonomy, which will be handled by Model 3, Model Y, and Cybercab.
Tesla begins Cybertruck deliveries in a new region for the first time
The news has drawn conflicting perspectives, with many Tesla fans upset about the decision, especially as it ends the production of the largest car in the company’s lineup. Tesla’s focus is on smaller ride-sharing vehicles, especially as the vast majority of rides consist of two or fewer passengers.
The S and X do not fit in these plans.
Nevertheless, the Cybertruck fits in Tesla’s future plans. Musk said the pickup will be needed for the transportation of local goods. Musk also said Cybertruck would be transitioned to an autonomous line.
In a groundbreaking new report from Reuters, SpaceX is reportedly discussing merger possibilities with xAI ahead of the space exploration company’s plans to IPO later this year, in what would be a blockbuster move.
The outlet said it would combine rockets and Starlink satellites, as well as the X social media platform and AI project Grok under one roof. The report cites “a person briefed on the matter and two recent company filings seen by Reuters.”
Musk, nor SpaceX or xAI, have commented on the report, so, as of now, it is unconfirmed.
With that being said, the proposed merger would bring shares of xAI in exchange for shares of SpaceX. Both companies were registered in Nevada to expedite the transaction, according to the report.
On January 21, both entities were registered in Nevada. The report continues:
“One of them, a limited liability company, lists SpaceX and Bret Johnsen, the company’s chief financial officer, as managing members, while the other lists Johnsen as the company’s only officer, the filings show.”
The source also stated that some xAI executives could be given the option to receive cash in lieu of SpaceX stock. No agreement has been reached, nothing has been signed, and the timing and structure, as well as other important details, have not been finalized.
SpaceX is valued at $800 billion and is the most valuable privately held company, while xAI is valued at $230 billion as of November. SpaceX could be going public later this year, as Musk has said as recently as December that the company would offer its stock publicly.
The plans could help move along plans for large-scale data centers in space, something Musk has discussed on several occasions over the past few months.
At the World Economic Forum last week, Musk said:
“It’s a no-brainer for building solar-powered AI data centers in space, because as I mentioned, it’s also very cold in space. The net effect is that the lowest cost place to put AI will be space and that will be true within two to three years, three at the latest.”
He also said on X that “the most important thing in the next 3-4 years is data centers in space.”
If the report is true and the two companies end up coming together, it would not be the first time Musk’s companies have ended up coming together. He used Tesla stock to purchase SolarCity back in 2016. Last year, X became part of xAI in a share swap.
Tesla has announced it has hit a major milestone with Full Self-Driving subscriptions, shortly after it said it would exclusively offer the suite without the option to purchase it outright.
Tesla announced on Wednesday during its Q4 Earnings Call for 2025 that it had officially eclipsed the one million subscription mark for its Full Self-Driving suite. This represented a 38 percent increase year-over-year.
This is up from the roughly 800,000 active subscriptions it reported last year. The company has seen significant increases in FSD adoption over the past few years, as in 2021, it reported just 400,000. In 2022, it was up to 500,000 and, one year later, it had eclipsed 600,000.
NEWS: For the first time, Tesla has revealed how many people are subscribed or have purchased FSD (Supervised).
Active FSD Subscriptions:
• 2025: 1.1 million
• 2024: 800K
• 2023: 600K
• 2022: 500K
• 2021: 400K pic.twitter.com/KVtnyANWcs— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) January 28, 2026
In mid-January, CEO Elon Musk announced that the company would transition away from giving the option to purchase the Full Self-Driving suite outright, opting for the subscription program exclusively.
Musk said on X:
“Tesla will stop selling FSD after Feb 14. FSD will only be available as a monthly subscription thereafter.”
The move intends to streamline the Full Self-Driving purchase option, and gives Tesla more control over its revenue, and closes off the ability to buy it outright for a bargain when Musk has said its value could be close to $100,000 when it reaches full autonomy.
It also caters to Musk’s newest compensation package. One tranche requires Tesla to achieve 10 million active FSD subscriptions, and now that it has reached one million, it is already seeing some growth.
The strategy that Tesla will use to achieve this lofty goal is still under wraps. The most ideal solution would be to offer a less expensive version of the suite, which is not likely considering the company is increasing its capabilities, and it is becoming more robust.
Tesla is shifting FSD to a subscription-only model, confirms Elon Musk
Currently, Tesla’s FSD subscription price is $99 per month, but Musk said this price will increase, which seems counterintuitive to its goal of increasing the take rate. With that being said, it will be interesting to see what Tesla does to navigate growth while offering a robust FSD suite.
Tesla analyst claims another vehicle, not Model S and X, should be discontinued
SpaceX reportedly discussing merger with xAI ahead of blockbuster IPO
