News
SpaceX preparing for back-to-back Starlink launches from California and Florida
Update: Next Spaceflight reports that SpaceX has delayed Starlink 4-15 to 4:38 pm EDT, May 14th, ending the immediate possibility of a new SpaceX record for time between launches.
After a few days of delays pushed the missions closer together, SpaceX is now preparing to launch two batches of 53 Starlink satellites just eight hours apart – one from Florida and the other from California.
Originally scheduled to launch as early May 10th, which would have tied SpaceX’s Vandenberg Space Force Base (VSFB) SLC-4E launch pad turnaround record, Starlink 4-13 slipped to May 12th within the last few days. 2400 miles (~3900 km) to the east, SpaceX’s Starlink 4-15 mission – preparing to launch from the company’s Cape Canaveral Space Force Station (CCSFS) LC-40 pad – recently found itself in the opposite boat.
On April 22nd, Spaceflight Now reported that Starlink 4-15 was scheduled to launch no earlier than (NET) May 8th. At the time, Starlink 4-13 was also scheduled to launch on the 8th, placing the two Starlink missions just a few hours apart. On April 28th, Spaceflight Now updated its well-sourced launch calendar, revealing that Starlink 4-13 had slipped to May 10th and Starlink 4-15 to May 16th, ending their concurrence. Finally, on May 7th and May 8th, photographer Ben Cooper reported that Starlink 4-15 had moved up to 2:08 am EDT (06:08 UTC), May 13th and FAA documents revealed that Starlink 4-13 had slipped again to 3:29 pm PDT (22:29 UTC), May 12th.
In other words, the missions have again found themselves just a handful of hours apart after weeks of unrelated juggling and delays. Barring additional issues, Starlink 4-13 and Starlink 4-15 are scheduled to launch just 7 hours and 41 minutes apart. Set in late 2021, the shortest time between two Falcon launches is currently 15 hours and 17 minutes. But above all else, the constant back and forth – only to end up with both launches again just hours apart – demonstrates just how agonizing and unforgiving the planning behind every rocket launch schedule truly is.
Fittingly, Starlink 4-13’s drone ship headed to sea just ~60 hours before the scheduled launch and Starlink 4-15’s drone ship has yet to depart, keeping the launch dates of both missions about as uncertain as they can be without guaranteeing that delays are coming. Both drone ships must be towed about 400 miles downrange at speeds that almost never exceed 8-10 mph, translating to a minimum two-day journey even with zero stops, slowdowns, or detours.
Beyond the record-breaking potential, Starlink 4-13 is an otherwise ordinary mission that will launch another 53 Starlink V1.5 satellites to an ordinary 53.2-degree inclination, which simply means that they’ll end up in the same ‘shell’ as the other satellites in Starlink’s ‘Group 4’ shell. Despite launching from the opposite coast of the US, Starlink 4-15 will be almost identical and is expected to deploy another 53 Starlink V1.5 satellites to the same orbital shell. However, it appears that Starlink 4-15 will have a few highly unusual features.
Instead of performing a hockey stick-like ‘dogleg’ maneuver to avoid overflying any populated islands in the Bahamas, Falcon 9 will directly overfly the country’s largest western island and attempt to land right in the middle of the archipelago, potentially touching down on a drone ship just 5-15 miles away from Nassau and a couple other islands. The fact alone that SpaceX was able to convince both the Bahamas and the US’ FAA to allow it to fly the trajectory shown above is extremely impressive and belies a deep trust in SpaceX’s expertise and Falcon 9’s safety and reliability. At the same time, SpaceX may be taking some degree of risk, as the trajectory’s minuscule margins for error probably mean that Falcon 9’s automatic flight termination system will be programmed to destroy the rocket at the slightest hint of deviation from the planned trajectory.
Adding to the oddity, Starlink 4-15 will be the first in a long line of 45 dedicated Starlink launches to debut a new Falcon 9 booster. According to Next Spaceflight, Falcon 9 B1073 will claim that unusual first, almost entirely flipping the table on the precedent of conservative government customers – still timid about SpaceX reusability – scrambling to secure increasingly rare launch opportunities on new Falcon 9 boosters. Alternatively, it’s possible – but unlikely – that SpaceX implemented significant changes to Falcon 9 B1073 that it wants to verify independently before risking customer payloads.
With any luck, the new rocket will perform flawlessly and give some nearby Bahamians a truly one-of-a-kind experience: the ability to watch a SpaceX Falcon 9 booster land at sea… from the comfort of their own homes.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
News
Tesla Model Y L is gaining momentum in China’s premium segment
This suggests that the addition of the Model Y L to Tesla China’s lineup will not result in a case of cannibalization, but a possible case of “premiumization” instead.
Tesla’s domestic sales in China held steady in November with around 73,000 units delivered, but a closer look at the Model Y L’s numbers hints at an emerging shift towards pricier variants that could very well be boosting average selling prices and margins.
This suggests that the addition of the Model Y L to Tesla China’s lineup will not result in a case of cannibalization, but a possible case of “premiumization” instead.
Tesla China’s November domestic numbers
Data from the a Passenger Car Association (CPCA) indicated that Tesla China saw domestic deliveries of about 73,000 vehicles in November 2025. This number included 34,000 standard Model Y units, 26,000 Model 3 units, and 13,000 Model Y L units, as per industry watchers.
This means that the Model Y L accounted for roughly 27% of Tesla China’s total Model Y sales, despite the variant carrying a ~28% premium over the base RWD Model Y that is estimated to have dominated last year’s mix.
As per industry watcher @TSLAFanMtl, this suggests that Tesla China’s sales have moved towards more premium variants this year. Thus, direct year-over-year sales comparisons might miss the bigger picture. This is true even for the regular Model Y, as another premium trim, the Long Range RWD variant, was also added to the lineup this 2025.
November 2025 momentum
While Tesla China’s overall sales this year have seen challenges, the Model Y and Model 3 have remained strong sellers in the country. This is especially impressive as the Model Y and Model 3 are premium-priced vehicles, and they compete in the world’s most competitive electric vehicle market. Tesla China is also yet to roll out the latest capabilities of FSD in China, which means that its vehicles in the country could not tap into their latest capabilities yet.
Aggregated results from November suggest that the Tesla Model Y took the crown as China’s #1 best-selling SUV during the month, with roughly 34,000 deliveries. With the Model Y L, this number is even higher. The Tesla Model 3 also had a stellar month, seeing 25,700 deliveries during November 2025.
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
