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SpaceX preparing for back-to-back Starlink launches from California and Florida
Update: Next Spaceflight reports that SpaceX has delayed Starlink 4-15 to 4:38 pm EDT, May 14th, ending the immediate possibility of a new SpaceX record for time between launches.
After a few days of delays pushed the missions closer together, SpaceX is now preparing to launch two batches of 53 Starlink satellites just eight hours apart – one from Florida and the other from California.
Originally scheduled to launch as early May 10th, which would have tied SpaceX’s Vandenberg Space Force Base (VSFB) SLC-4E launch pad turnaround record, Starlink 4-13 slipped to May 12th within the last few days. 2400 miles (~3900 km) to the east, SpaceX’s Starlink 4-15 mission – preparing to launch from the company’s Cape Canaveral Space Force Station (CCSFS) LC-40 pad – recently found itself in the opposite boat.
On April 22nd, Spaceflight Now reported that Starlink 4-15 was scheduled to launch no earlier than (NET) May 8th. At the time, Starlink 4-13 was also scheduled to launch on the 8th, placing the two Starlink missions just a few hours apart. On April 28th, Spaceflight Now updated its well-sourced launch calendar, revealing that Starlink 4-13 had slipped to May 10th and Starlink 4-15 to May 16th, ending their concurrence. Finally, on May 7th and May 8th, photographer Ben Cooper reported that Starlink 4-15 had moved up to 2:08 am EDT (06:08 UTC), May 13th and FAA documents revealed that Starlink 4-13 had slipped again to 3:29 pm PDT (22:29 UTC), May 12th.
In other words, the missions have again found themselves just a handful of hours apart after weeks of unrelated juggling and delays. Barring additional issues, Starlink 4-13 and Starlink 4-15 are scheduled to launch just 7 hours and 41 minutes apart. Set in late 2021, the shortest time between two Falcon launches is currently 15 hours and 17 minutes. But above all else, the constant back and forth – only to end up with both launches again just hours apart – demonstrates just how agonizing and unforgiving the planning behind every rocket launch schedule truly is.
Fittingly, Starlink 4-13’s drone ship headed to sea just ~60 hours before the scheduled launch and Starlink 4-15’s drone ship has yet to depart, keeping the launch dates of both missions about as uncertain as they can be without guaranteeing that delays are coming. Both drone ships must be towed about 400 miles downrange at speeds that almost never exceed 8-10 mph, translating to a minimum two-day journey even with zero stops, slowdowns, or detours.
Beyond the record-breaking potential, Starlink 4-13 is an otherwise ordinary mission that will launch another 53 Starlink V1.5 satellites to an ordinary 53.2-degree inclination, which simply means that they’ll end up in the same ‘shell’ as the other satellites in Starlink’s ‘Group 4’ shell. Despite launching from the opposite coast of the US, Starlink 4-15 will be almost identical and is expected to deploy another 53 Starlink V1.5 satellites to the same orbital shell. However, it appears that Starlink 4-15 will have a few highly unusual features.
Instead of performing a hockey stick-like ‘dogleg’ maneuver to avoid overflying any populated islands in the Bahamas, Falcon 9 will directly overfly the country’s largest western island and attempt to land right in the middle of the archipelago, potentially touching down on a drone ship just 5-15 miles away from Nassau and a couple other islands. The fact alone that SpaceX was able to convince both the Bahamas and the US’ FAA to allow it to fly the trajectory shown above is extremely impressive and belies a deep trust in SpaceX’s expertise and Falcon 9’s safety and reliability. At the same time, SpaceX may be taking some degree of risk, as the trajectory’s minuscule margins for error probably mean that Falcon 9’s automatic flight termination system will be programmed to destroy the rocket at the slightest hint of deviation from the planned trajectory.
Adding to the oddity, Starlink 4-15 will be the first in a long line of 45 dedicated Starlink launches to debut a new Falcon 9 booster. According to Next Spaceflight, Falcon 9 B1073 will claim that unusual first, almost entirely flipping the table on the precedent of conservative government customers – still timid about SpaceX reusability – scrambling to secure increasingly rare launch opportunities on new Falcon 9 boosters. Alternatively, it’s possible – but unlikely – that SpaceX implemented significant changes to Falcon 9 B1073 that it wants to verify independently before risking customer payloads.
With any luck, the new rocket will perform flawlessly and give some nearby Bahamians a truly one-of-a-kind experience: the ability to watch a SpaceX Falcon 9 booster land at sea… from the comfort of their own homes.
Elon Musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk drops massive bomb about Cybercab
“And there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface,” Musk said.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk dropped a massive bomb about the Cybercab, which is the company’s fully autonomous ride-hailing vehicle that will enter production later this year.
The Cybercab was unveiled back in October 2024 at the company’s “We, Robot” event in Los Angeles, and is among the major catalysts for the company’s growth in the coming years. It is expected to push Tesla into a major growth phase, especially as the automaker is transitioning into more of an AI and Robotics company than anything else.
The Cybercab will enable completely autonomous ride-hailing for Tesla, and although its other vehicles will also be capable of this technology, the Cybercab is slightly different. It will have no steering wheel or pedals, and will allow two occupants to travel from Point A to Point B with zero responsibilities within the car.
Tesla shares epic 2025 recap video, confirms start of Cybercab production
Details on the Cybercab are pretty face value at this point: we know Tesla is enabling 1-2 passengers to ride in it at a time, and this strategy was based on statistics that show most ride-hailing trips have no more than two occupants. It will also have in-vehicle entertainment options accessible from the center touchscreen.
It will also have wireless charging capabilities, which were displayed at “We, Robot,” and there could be more features that will be highly beneficial to riders, offering a full-fledged autonomous experience.
Musk dropped a big hint that there is much more to the Cybercab than what we know, as a post on X said that “there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface.”
And there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 2, 2026
As the Cybercab is expected to enter production later this year, Tesla is surely going to include a handful of things they have not yet revealed to the public.
Musk seems to be indicating that some of the features will make it even more groundbreaking, and the idea is to enable a truly autonomous experience from start to finish for riders. Everything from climate control to emergency systems, and more, should be included with the car.
It seems more likely than not that Tesla will make the Cybercab its smartest vehicle so far, as if its current lineup is not already extremely intelligent, user-friendly, and intuitive.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.Â
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter.  For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
Elon Musk
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026,” Ives wrote.
Tesla analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush released a new note on Friday morning just after the company released production and delivery figures for Q4 and the full year of 2025, stating that the numbers, while slightly underwhelming, are “better than feared” and as “a step in the right direction.”
Tesla reported production of 434,358 and deliveries of 418,227 for the fourth quarter, while 1,654,667 vehicles were produced and 1,636,129 cars were delivered for the full year.
Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report
Interestingly, the company posted its own consensus figures that were compiled from various firms on its website a few days ago, where expectations were set at 1,640,752 cars for the year. Tesla fell about 4,000 units short of that. One of the areas where Tesla excelled was energy deployments, which totaled 46.7 GWh for the year.
🚨 Wedbush’s Dan Ives has released a new note on Tesla $TSLA:
“Tesla announced its FY4Q25 delivery numbers this morning coming in at 418.2k vehicles slightly below the company’s consensus delivery estimate of 422.9k but much better than the whisper numbers of ~410k as the…
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 2, 2026
In terms of vehicle deliveries, Ives writes that Tesla certainly has some things to work through if it wants to return to growth in that aspect, especially with the loss of the $7,500 tax credit in the U.S. and “continuous headwinds” for the company in Europe.
However, Ives also believes that, given the delivery numbers, which were on par with expectations, Tesla is positioned well for a strong 2026, especially with its AI focus, Robotaxi and Cybercab development, and energy:
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026. We look forward to hearing more at the company’s 4Q25 call on January 28th. AI Valuation – The Focus Throughout 2026. We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap over the coming year and, in a bull case scenario, $3 trillion by the end of 2026…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
It’s no secret that for the past several years, Tesla’s vehicle delivery numbers have been the main focus of investors and analysts have looked at them as an indicator of company health to a certain extent. The problem with that narrative in 2025 and 2026 is that Tesla is now focusing more on the deployment of Full Self-Driving, its Optimus project, AI development, and Cybercab.
While vehicle deliveries still hold importance, it is more crucial to note that Tesla’s overall environment as a business relies on much more than just how many cars are purchased. That metric, to a certain extent, is fading in importance in the grand scheme of things, but it will never totally disappear.
Ives and Wedbush maintained their $600 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk drops massive bomb about Cybercab
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
