News
SpaceX board member says Starlink prototype satellites “are working wonderfully”
Speaking in a Satellite Innovation 2018 keynote, long-time SpaceX investor and board member Steve Jurvetson made a quiet but significant comment about the company’s Starlink satellite constellation efforts, stating that the first two prototype spacecraft – currently in orbit – “are working wonderfully.”
Standing in contrast to recent speculation that SpaceX’s Starlink project had experienced major failures with on-orbit hardware, Jurvetson may be a biased source but still has a major vested interest in SpaceX’s long-term success – supporting billions dumped into a satellite constellation with no real returns in sight would serve to seriously harm his significant investments in the company.
He would say that? Maybe, but @dfjsteve Jurvetson, early @SpaceX & @planet investor, told Satellite Innovation conference Oct 10, regarding SpaceX's two Starlink test sats launched in February: pic.twitter.com/WHzJlPUEPA
— Peter B. de Selding (@pbdes) October 12, 2018
Perhaps the most trustworthy source of SpaceX information outside of the company itself, Jurvetson expressed considerable confidence in SpaceX’s Starlink achievements thus far.
“I personally think SpaceX is in the lead [with Ku- and Ka-band phased arrays that could make (global LEO satellite broadband) possible] … Tintin 1 and 2 [are working wonderfully].” – Steve Jurvetson, Satellite Innovation 2018
Previously discussed on Teslarati, SpaceX’s growing experience with phased array antennas is undoubtedly a boon for the company’s proposed Starlink internet constellation, just one of several companies actively pursuing the increasingly competitive low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite broadband market. Fundamentally, phased array antennas will eventually take over nearly all multipurpose orbital communications thanks to the sheer simplicity and potential technical superiority of the technology.
Phased array antennas get their name from the fact that they have no moving parts – rather than moving a physical dish or angling dedicated ‘beams’, phased arrays actively use signal interference to very precisely shape, direct, and regulate line-of-sight communications beams. Currently quite immature, the draw of the technology is the sheer simplicity and reliability of antennas that require no moving parts, eliminating a major mode of failure and the inherent physical limitations of current antenna tech. Without something like phased arrays, LEO communications satellites would struggle to accurately and reliably track ground stations and gateways while traveling multiple kilometers per second.
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- Traditional geostationary commsats like Telstar 19V feature dish-style antennas. The weird lumps and bumps on each dish are there by design, enabling the oddly specific coverage footprints seen to the right. (Telstar)
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- Telstar 19V’s coverage map. Each coverage blob is there by design and is accomplished by physically shaping the antenna dish.
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- LEO communications satellites like Iridium’s NEXT constellation feature totally flat panels of phased array antennas, capable of forming beams digitally. (Harris)
Large communications satellites in geostationary orbit do not face this problem. Thanks to their inherently fixed positions over ground targets (hence “geostationary“), designers and manufacturers have learned to quite literally mold each satellite’s on-orbit antennas to explicitly prioritize certain areas on the ground. This process tends to involve a prior determination of markets where demand for satellite communications is or will be highest, while also avoiding wasted coverage over areas with no need for it. However, once the antenna is launched, its beams are almost completely permanent. If markets change, the satellite simply cannot adapt.
Phased arrays, on the other hand, can almost entirely change where their many beams are directed, how much bandwidth is dedicated to certain locations, and all while accurately tracking moving targets with very few limitations. As a result, satellites with phased array antennas are sort of the communications jacks of all trades, capable of offering high-bandwidth connectivity to stationary user terminals, large ground stations, and moving vehicles simultaneously from with the same antenna array.
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- SpaceX’s first two Starlink prototype satellites are pictured here before their inaugural launch, showing off a thoroughly utilitarian bus and several advanced components. (SpaceX)
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- Patent diagrams like this show various subcomponents of a sandwiched phased array antenna, comprised of multiple printed circuit boards. (SpaceX)
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- The technical term for this is “science rectangle.” In all seriousness, this is actually an extraordinary glimpse at custom silicon developed in-house at SpaceX, in this case a semiconductor die. (SpaceX)
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- One of the first two prototype Starlink satellites separates from Falcon 9’s upper stage in February 2018. (SpaceX)
If SpaceX can perfect this, they will be the only company in the world to have done so on-orbit, while other satellite operators like Iridium have managed to build and launch low-bandwidth phased arrays but have yet to attempt to do so with the bands optimal for broadband internet or at a scale that might work for constellations of hundreds or even thousands of satellites. If Jurvetson is to be believed, SpaceX’s first foray into dedicated communications satellites and specialized hardware design and manufacturing has been a major success.
Even if the orbits of Tintin A and B do suggest that some difficulties were had with at least one satellite’s electric propulsion thrusters, it’s obvious that the experience and data derived from testing the vast majority of each satellite’s non-propulsion-related systems were invaluable and well worth the effort. Another group of prototypes will likely be launched according to Elon Musk, but that’s simply how SpaceX develops complex systems – build, launch, learn, and repeat.
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Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
Elon Musk
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026,” Ives wrote.
Tesla analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush released a new note on Friday morning just after the company released production and delivery figures for Q4 and the full year of 2025, stating that the numbers, while slightly underwhelming, are “better than feared” and as “a step in the right direction.”
Tesla reported production of 434,358 and deliveries of 418,227 for the fourth quarter, while 1,654,667 vehicles were produced and 1,636,129 cars were delivered for the full year.
Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report
Interestingly, the company posted its own consensus figures that were compiled from various firms on its website a few days ago, where expectations were set at 1,640,752 cars for the year. Tesla fell about 4,000 units short of that. One of the areas where Tesla excelled was energy deployments, which totaled 46.7 GWh for the year.
🚨 Wedbush’s Dan Ives has released a new note on Tesla $TSLA:
“Tesla announced its FY4Q25 delivery numbers this morning coming in at 418.2k vehicles slightly below the company’s consensus delivery estimate of 422.9k but much better than the whisper numbers of ~410k as the…
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 2, 2026
In terms of vehicle deliveries, Ives writes that Tesla certainly has some things to work through if it wants to return to growth in that aspect, especially with the loss of the $7,500 tax credit in the U.S. and “continuous headwinds” for the company in Europe.
However, Ives also believes that, given the delivery numbers, which were on par with expectations, Tesla is positioned well for a strong 2026, especially with its AI focus, Robotaxi and Cybercab development, and energy:
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026. We look forward to hearing more at the company’s 4Q25 call on January 28th. AI Valuation – The Focus Throughout 2026. We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap over the coming year and, in a bull case scenario, $3 trillion by the end of 2026…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
It’s no secret that for the past several years, Tesla’s vehicle delivery numbers have been the main focus of investors and analysts have looked at them as an indicator of company health to a certain extent. The problem with that narrative in 2025 and 2026 is that Tesla is now focusing more on the deployment of Full Self-Driving, its Optimus project, AI development, and Cybercab.
While vehicle deliveries still hold importance, it is more crucial to note that Tesla’s overall environment as a business relies on much more than just how many cars are purchased. That metric, to a certain extent, is fading in importance in the grand scheme of things, but it will never totally disappear.
Ives and Wedbush maintained their $600 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock.
Investor's Corner
Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report
Deliveries stood at 406,585 Model 3/Y and 11,642 other models, for a total of 418,227 vehicles.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has reported its Q4 2025 production and deliveries, with 418,227 vehicles delivered and 434,358 produced worldwide. Energy storage deployments hit a quarterly record at 14.2 GWh.
Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 results were posted on Friday, January 2, 2026.
Q4 2025 production and deliveries
In Q4 2025, Tesla produced 422,652 Model 3/Y units and 11,706 other models, which are comprised of the Model S, Model X, and the Cybertruck, for a total of 434,358 vehicles. Deliveries stood at 406,585 Model 3/Y and 11,642 other models, for a total of 418,227 vehicles.
Energy deployments reached 14.2 GWh, a new record. Similar to other reports, Tesla posted a company thanked customers, employees, suppliers, shareholders, and supporters for its fourth quarter results.
In comparison, analysts included in Tesla’s company-compiled consensus estimate that Tesla would deliver 422,850 vehicles and deploy 13.4 GWh of battery storage systems in Q4 2025.
Tesla’s Full Year 2025 results
For the full year, Tesla produced a total of 1,654,667 vehicles, comprised of 1,600,767 Model Y/3 and 53,900 other models. Tesla also delivered 1,636,129 vehicles in FY 2025, comprised of 1,585,279 Model Y/3 and 50,850 other models. Energy deployments totaled 46.7 GWh over the year.
In comparison, analysts included in Tesla’s company-compiled consensus expected the company to deliver a total of 1,640,752 vehicles for full year 2025. Analysts also expected Tesla’s energy division to deploy a total of 45.9 GWh during the year.
Tesla will post its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025 after market close on Wednesday, January 28, 2026. The company’s Q4 and FY 2025 earnings call is expected to be held on the same day at 4:30 p.m. Central Time.
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
