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SpaceX Cargo Dragon spacecraft arrives at space station on second to last mission
SpaceX’s Cargo Dragon has successfully rendezvoused with the International Space Station (ISS) as part of NASA’s CRS-19 resupply mission, marking what is almost certainly the spacecraft’s second to last orbital launch.
On December 5th, new Falcon 9 booster B1059 lifted off from SpaceX’s LC-40 Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) launch pad with a fresh upper stage and twice flown Cargo Dragon capsule C106 atop it. A little over nine minutes after launch, B1059 prepared to be robotically secured on drone ship Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY) while Cargo Dragon – now in orbit – separated from Falcon 9’s upper stage and headed on its merry way.
Cargo Dragon’s 20th orbital mission and 19th trip to the ISS, CRS-19’s twice-flown spacecraft commanded the deployment of its two solar arrays, primed its Draco maneuvering thrusters, and opened up its Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GNC) bay. Using star trackers, inertial measurement devices, and lasers, Dragon then proceeded to precisely deliver itself to the ‘door’ of the space station before gradually approaching.
Astronauts aboard the ISS then manually guided Canadarm2 – a massive robotic arm externally attached to the space station – towards Cargo Dragon as it used its thrusters to essentially hover in place, ultimately grabbing the spacecraft with a sort of mechanical hand. At that point, Dragon effectively became a part of the ISS and astronauts monitored the subsequent (and mostly automated) process of using Canadarm2 to fully berth spacecraft with the station.
After berthing, astronauts are able to equalize the pressure between the ISS and visiting spacecraft and open the hatch, gaining access to whatever cargo it was loaded with prior to launch. Alternatively, visiting vehicles can also dock with the International Space Station, a process controlled entirely by the arriving spacecraft, a bit like berthing but with almost all of the risk on its shoulders. All Russian spacecraft currently use this method, as do Boeing’s Starliner and SpaceX’s Crew Dragon.
As it turns out, CRS-19 – partially hinted at in the name – is the second to last launch of SpaceX’s Dragon 1 (Cargo Dragon), which become the first commercial spacecraft capable of reentering Earth’s atmosphere in 2010 and rendezvousing with a space station in 2012. Five months later, SpaceX launched CRS-1 – its first operational resupply mission – and the rest is (more or less) history.
In the seven years since CRS-1, Cargo Dragon – including CRS-19 – has now flown 18 successful space station resupply missions and delivered more than 90,000 lb (50,000 kg) to its ever-changing crew of astronauts. Cargo Dragon has undergone at least two significant upgrades and suffered its fair share of mishaps, but has still successfully completed its mission every time it reached orbit.
NASA’s CRS1 SpaceX contract ultimately called for a total of 20 Cargo Dragon missions to the ISS, although more could technically be added retroactively if both entities were to decide they were needed. Currently, the plan is for CRS-20 – Cargo Dragon’s next launch – to be the spacecraft’s last orbital mission and is scheduled no earlier than March 2020.
After CRS-20, SpaceX – via its subsequent CRS2 NASA contract – means to introduce a version of Crew Dragon (Dragon 2) modified for cargo-only missions, optimally taking flight-proven Crew capsules and reusing them as Cargo Dragon 2s.
SpaceX recently revealed that the first Cargo Dragon 2 spacecraft will unexpectedly not feature Crew Dragon’s complex SuperDraco abort system, a feature that has recently created several roadblocks. However, this dramatically simplifies Dragon 2 and means that SpaceX is still quite confident that the upgraded cargo spacecraft will be ready for its launch debut next year.
Known as CRS-21, that mission will see SpaceX’s CRS launches move from LC-40 to Kennedy Space Center’s LC-39A pad in order to enable extremely late and convenient cargo-loading via Pad 39A’s Crew Access Arm (CAA), to be primarily used by astronauts boarding Crew Dragon. Similarly, Cargo Dragon 2 will dock with the ISS instead of using Dragon’s current berthing route, nominally requiring less hands-on astronaut time for each resupply mission.
Cargo Dragon will be missed but will forever remain a major piece of commercial spaceflight history. Dragon 2 will likely toe the line for the first half of the next decade, but SpaceX ultimately wants to get its generation Starship launch vehicle online as soon as possible – a feat that will make all Falcon and Dragon vehicles redundant if things go as planned.
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Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
