Elon Musk
Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might
Here are five reasons Tesla might be in better shape without the tax credit being available.
The $7,500 EV tax credit has officially expired, as it came to its closure at midnight on September 30. Many are wondering what will happen to the EV makers in the United States that had a huge competitive advantage over their competitors, a $7,500 discount that could be applied at the point of sale.
Tesla stands to thrive from the lack of tax credit, and although it is hard to believe, brighter days could be ahead for the company, starting with Q4, which began today.
Here are five reasons Tesla might be in better shape without the tax credit being available:
No Tax Credit Means Price Cuts
Tesla has to adjust its pricing strategy now that the $7,500 tax credit is gone, and when it lost the previous tax credit after reaching its cap in 2019, it used a more affordable model to surge sales. At the time, that more affordable model was the Model 3.
Tesla boosted deliveries by over 50 percent that year without any tax credit by simply offering a cheaper model. The credit, in a way, distorts the market, and companies, while attempting to innovate, are able to offer the discount with the help of the government.
Tesla price cuts push EV market toward affordability with broader influence
Companies will now have to weigh what they can discount their vehicles by to keep profits reasonable, but also stoke demand.
Ultimately, Tesla has the ability to use manufacturing and technological efficiencies to increase affordability. It has more control to fluctuate pricing, and price cuts could be on the way.
The Playing Field Becomes Fairer
Companies like Ford and General Motors have also reaped the benefits of the tax credit, but their situation is much different than Tesla’s.
Ford and GM are not profitable on their EV projects, so the EV tax credit has been relied upon to mask high production costs and dealer markups, which have widely impacted their demand. Ford is among the more popular brands that have dipped their toes into the EV market, but they have been forced to adjust their strategy on several occasions due to a lack of profits.
Tesla’s vehicles have been profitable for some time, and the company has been able to make money from its offerings faster. Cybertruck was profitable after just one year of production.
Tesla Cybertruck achieves positive gross margin for first time
Removing subsidies will expose the financial weaknesses of those domestic competitors, and we will likely see those companies scale back their EV efforts in the coming months and years. This will help Tesla more than having access to the tax credit would, which is something CEO Elon Musk has said for years:
First of all, Tesla hasn’t had that consumer tax credit for years & we didn’t ask for this one – GM & Ford did
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 6, 2022
In my view, we should end all government subsidies, including those for EVs, oil and gas
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 14, 2024
Tesla’s Maturity Shows and Investor Confidence Will Boost
Tesla was once dismissed as a subsidy-dependent startup, but that narrative truly died years ago, as it continued to perform well against competitors even after losing the tax credit.
Musk has said himself that the cancellation of these subsidies “will only help Tesla,” as it will highlight the company’s ability to be self-sufficient.
Elon Musk reiterates call for all subsidies on all industries to be removed
Using things like manufacturing efficiencies and vertical integration, Tesla has been less dependent than others on help to build its cars. If anything, investors will likely see the next few months as a make-or-break period for companies building EVs.
Subsidies Sometimes Can Inhibit True Innovation
Some companies can tend to become complacent when government subsidies are offered on their products. Instead of making things better and trying to find new ways to make cars more affordable, some can lean on the help they’re getting.
After subsidies ended for Tesla in 2019, the company achieved two major breakthroughs: the Cybertruck and its energy storage projects scaled to gigawatt-hours. The argument is not that Tesla becomes complacent with the tax credits, but the company is going to feel more pressure to fight for innovation now that its back is up against the wall.
It already offers a better product from a tech standpoint, so affordability could truly be the next major change we see.
Affordable Models Will Be Even More Sought After
Tesla will launch its affordable models this quarter, and with no more tax credit to lean on, these new cars will be what many consumers go for.
If Tesla can launch a model that is close to $30,000 without a tax credit, the company stands to regain a significant portion of its market share from competitors that have eroded it over the past few years. This will undercut the vast majority of electric cars that are currently offered.
- 2025 Nissan Leaf S Trim – $28,140
- 2025 Fiat 500e Base Trim – $32,500
- 2025 Chevrolet Equinox EV – $33,600
Those are the three most affordable EVs available in the U.S. right now, and those prices are without the EV tax credit. If Tesla can get close to $30,000, it will truly make a mark and there might not be all that much of a change in its yearly delivery figures.
Elon Musk
Tesla Hardware 3 owners could be made whole this month
Tesla Hardware 3 owners are set to get a new Full Self-Driving version this month as the company plans to release what it is referring to as v14 Lite.
The rollout is not yet confirmed for June, but Tesla executives have stated on several occasions that this more refined FSD iteration will work with their cars and increase its capabilities.
This comes after Tesla admitted during its last Earnings Call that these Hardware 3 vehicles would not be able to achieve Full Self-Driving, something that they did not know when they bought these cars. We regularly receive messages from Hardware 3 owners asking when v14 Lite will come out, what they should expect, and whether it is worth it to upgrade the self-driving computer or buy a new car altogether.
Following future rollout of FSD V14 Lite for HW3 vehicles in the US, we plan on expanding V14 Lite to additional international markets.
This update ensures that HW3 vehicle owners will continue to benefit from ongoing software updates.
Since international rollout is subject to…
— Tesla (@Tesla) April 29, 2026
It is hard not to feel for them; Tesla CEO Elon Musk said at the company’s 2019 Autonomy Day that all vehicles produced at the time, including Hardware 3 cars, had “all the hardware necessary, compute and otherwise, for Full Self-Driving.”
Musk also said in March of that year that, “Anyone who purchased Full Self-Driving will get FSD computer upgrade for free.”
Anyone who purchased full self-driving will get FSD computer upgrade for free. This is the only change between Autopilot HW2.5 & HW3. Going forward “HW3” will just be called FSD Computer, which is accurate. No change to vehicle sensors or wire harness needed. This is v important. https://t.co/lICMpT7xnX
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 29, 2019
However, during the Q1 2026 Earnings Call, Musk admitted that Hardware 3 vehicles would not be capable of FSD, as “It has only 1/8th the memory bandwidth of Hardware 4, and memory bandwidth is one of the key elements needed for unsupervised FSD.”
Tesla has made some effort to remedy these Hardware 3 owners by offering:
- Discounted trade-ins toward AI4 cars
- Hardware retrofits, which would replace the self-driving computer and upgrade all cameras
- Full Self-Driving v14 Lite
The issue is that many of these owners were led to believe their cars would be capable of unsupervised self-driving. Now, they’re left scrambling for options, and while there are several, they will all require more money out of their pockets.
Expectations for Tesla v14 Lite for Hardware 3 Owners
The big differences between the AI4 v14 and v14 Lite for Hardware 3 owners will stem primarily from hardware constraints. Tesla developed v14 Lite with an optimized frame of mind; the v14 neural nets are toned down to run on an HW3 computer.
Tesla v14 will use the same behavior, but its limits will be hardware-related, especially given that the cameras on HW3 vehicles are lower-resolution.
Tesla reveals its plans for Hardware 3 owners who are eager for updates
This will result in potentially more edge cases due to the lower quality perception and less long-range detection, but reaction time and overall confidence should be more refined.
There should also be a handful of additional features that are available on AI4 cars, such as:
- Starting Full Self-Driving from Park
- Auto Shift
- Streaks
- Speed Profiles
- Improved Dynamics, like Pulling Over for Emergency Vehicles
Tesla plans to release v14 Lite this month, but we are all familiar with how the company can be with timelines. Additionally, if v14 Lite has not proven to be ready for a wide release, Tesla will slam the brakes on the rollout.
We would anticipate that Tesla is testing v14 Lite internally, and likely has been for several months.
Elon Musk
SpaceXAI just launched into your kitchen with their new app
SpaceXAI just powered its first consumer app and it predicts what you want to buy.
SpaceXAI just made its first move into consumer AI, and it involves your grocery cart. On June 3, 2026, Gopuff and SpaceXAI announced the launch of Go, a Grok-powered shopping assistant built directly into the Gopuff app that predicts what you need before you even start searching for it.
Gopuff is an instant delivery platform that operates more than 400 micro-fulfillment centers across the U.S., delivering everyday essentials, snacks, drinks, and household items in as little as 15 minutes. It is not a restaurant delivery app or a marketplace. It owns its inventory, controls its warehouses, and handles its own logistics, which means it has built one of the most detailed consumer behavior datasets in retail over its 13-year history.
Go combines SpaceXAI’s advanced reasoning, voice, and image generation models with Gopuff’s dataset of hundreds of millions of orders and real-time cultural signals from X to prepare a suggested cart the moment a customer opens the app. It learns each shopper’s habits and automatically builds a personalized cart based on time of day, location, order history, and real-time indicators. Returning customers can check out with a single tap.
Rather than searching for specific items, users can describe a situation like a game-day party or the desire for a healthy breakfast and Go will assemble a cart automatically. It can also predict when shoppers are running low on items like coffee or paper towels and have them packed and delivered in under 15 minutes. Grok voice integration lets users talk to the app in plain conversational language and check out completely hands-free.
Gopuff co-founder and co-CEO Yakir Gola said: “Today, we believe the greatest friction left in commerce is not delivery or instantaneous access to the essentials customers need. It’s the moment before: the thinking, the deciding, the remembering. We’re combining Gopuff’s demand intelligence with xAI’s frontier reasoning to create an everyday shopping experience that feels like a true extension of you.”
Why SpaceX just made a $60 billion bet on AI coding ahead of historic IPO
The timing carries context beyond the product launch. SpaceXAI was formed after SpaceX completed an all-stock merger with Elon Musk’s xAI earlier this year, folding one of the most advanced AI labs in the world into the same corporate structure as the company preparing what could be the largest IPO in history. SpaceXAI is dipping into consumer-focused AI just as it prepares for its public debut, and while Musk has openly discussed building an everything app, this launch uses Grok to power another company’s product rather than launching a standalone consumer platform. Every consumer-facing deployment of Grok ahead of the IPO roadshow adds tangible evidence that SpaceXAI is not just an infrastructure play but a direct competitor in the AI application layer where OpenAI and Google are already fighting for dominance.
Elon Musk
SpaceX’s amended S-1 is sparking a major Tesla merger conversation
A single line in SpaceX’s amended S-1 just sent Tesla stock down 5% in one day.
A single line buried in SpaceX’s amended S-1 filing is doing more to move Tesla’s stock price than anything Tesla itself has announced in months. The clause, disclosed as SpaceX prepares for what could be the largest IPO in Wall Street history, states that the company “may issue a significant amount of equity in connection with future transactions.” While this may be seen as boilerplate language in S-1 filings, the historical ties between SpaceX and Tesla, and with Elon Musk reportedly discussing a possible merger with close colleagues, investors are interpreting it as something closer to a signal.
The concern among institutional investors like Gary Black, managing director of The Future Fund, pointed directly to the amended filing on X, saying it “strongly suggests more SPCX equity will be issued,” which could potentially be used to acquire Tesla. He estimated such a deal could be 28% dilutive to Tesla shareholders since SpaceX would likely command a significantly higher valuation multiple. Black added that institutional investors he knows hate the idea of a combination because they prefer pure plays over conglomerates, which he said “nearly always gravitate to the lowest common multiple.”
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
The bull case runs the math differently. Tesla influencer and retail shareholder advocate AleXandra Merz pushed back on what she called a widespread misunderstanding of how merger-of-equals deals actually work. Rather than simply splitting the difference between two market caps, a merger exchange ratio is negotiated based on relative fair market values, meaning the lower valued company typically sees its stock reprice upward toward the deal value.
Under her model, SpaceX enters at a $2.5 trillion valuation and Tesla at $1.6 trillion, producing a combined entity worth $4.1 trillion split evenly between both shareholder groups. That implies Tesla’s side of the deal would be valued at $2.05 trillion, a gain of roughly $450 billion from its current market cap. She cited Dow-DuPont and CBS-Viacom as historical examples of how markets reprice both companies toward the announced exchange ratio after a deal is unveiled.
What does a Merger of Equals mean to Elon’s compensation packages?
Well, it changes everything.
Enjoy https://t.co/uekCldyITw pic.twitter.com/kolq1C9qTu
— AleXandra Merz 🇺🇲 (@TeslaBoomerMama) June 1, 2026
The SpaceX S-1 amendments also revealed just how much financial infrastructure already binds the two companies together. As Teslarati has reported, SpaceX purchased $697 million in Tesla Megapacks, $131 million in Cybertrucks, and the two companies have shared supply chain resources, and semiconductor fabrication plans since well before any merger conversation became public. A retail poll by Tesla influencer Sawyer Merritt is finding that 36% of respondents do not plan to buy SpaceX shares at IPO and 15.3% saying their decision depends on the valuation.
Do you plan on buying @SpaceX stock at its IPO?
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) June 1, 2026
Whether the merger happens or not, the amended filing is seemingly moving markets and sharpened a debate that is no longer theoretical. SpaceX is weeks away from trading publicly, and Tesla shareholders are now watching every word of every filing for clues about what Musk plans to do next.