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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk teases Mars breakthroughs as Starship design radically changes

SpaceX's massive BFR mandrel, used to mold its composite tanks and structures. (SpaceX)

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During an interview with Axios, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk noted that he was “[really fired up about] a number of breakthroughs [SpaceX had recently made]” while being asked about his thoughts on the likelihood of him personally going to Mars (“70%”).

The minute-long teaser did not go much deeper but it certainly raises a number of questions (and hints at explanations) for a rapid-fire series of contradictory developments and changes to SpaceX’s BFR – since renamed to “Starship” and “Super Heavy” –  per a series of tweets from Musk over the last two weeks.

In a typical Muskian fashion, when Axios interviewers asked, “What is the likelihood that you personally will go to Mars?”, the CEO responded with an exact percentage – 70% – without skipping a beat. Musk also fervently and rather eloquently refuted the popular and harebrained idea that any SpaceX-enabled Mars colony would simply become “an escape hatch for the rich”. If the rich wanted Mars or lunar bases as “escape hatches”, there are dozens of multibillionaires that could singlehandedly fund Musk’s estimated $2-10B price tag for the completion of the entire BFR development program while still retaining 50-90% of their net worth.

Musk’s retort is worth reading in full.

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Mike Allen: “[Mars] could be an escape hatch for rich people.”

Elon Musk: “No! Your probability of dying on Mars is much higher than earth. Really the ad for going to Mars would be like Shackleton’s ad for going to the Antarctic. It’s gonna be hard. There’s a good chance of death, going in a little can through deep space. You might land successfully. Once you land successfully, you’ll be working nonstop to build the base. So, you know, not much time for leisure, and once you get there, even after doing all this, it’s a very harsh environment, so there’s a good chance you die there. We think you can come back but we’re not sure. Now, does that sound like an escape hatch for rich people?”

Getting to here is not a cheap endeavor and loans could help SpaceX pave the way. (SpaceX)

Back to BFR

While thoroughly entertaining, the most interesting aspect of this one-minute teaser was the approximate two seconds where Musk suggested that SpaceX had recently made several major breakthroughs in the context of BFR and Mars. What exactly those breakthroughs could be is entirely unclear, but the fact that Musk seemed positive about the recent developments and spoke of “breakthroughs” at all feels like an encouraging sign that the last two weeks of Musk’s chaotic announcements, updates, and abrupt cancellations are less indicative of program instability than they initially seemed to be.

Most notably, Musk appeared to announce and then completely cancel a sort of mini-spaceship that SpaceX was to base off of Falcon 9’s upper stage as a BFR spaceship technology demonstrator in less than two weeks. If realized, that mini-BFS would have reentered Earth’s atmosphere at orbital velocities to flight-test hypersonic fins and a new “ultra light” heat shield that will be (or would have been) critical for the overall success of BFS/Starship.

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Ironically, in the middle of writing this article, Musk tweeted specifically about “fundamental” changes to the spaceship, leaving little more than the general appearance and propulsion systems unchanged. In essence, the design of BFS/Starship is now almost unrecognizable when compared with past iterations, at least from a perspective of the ship’s most critical systems.If Starship will not be built out of composites, then it’s possible that the multiple years SpaceX engineers and technicians have spent trying to develop large carbon composite propellant tanks (2016-present) and the time, energy, and capital put into those efforts will be almost entirely for naught if BFR pivots away from composite tanks.

 

By all appearances, dozens of employees have spent the last year accepting delivery of $10-50M worth of custom-built composite tooling, setting it up, and building giant composite tank domes and segments. If composite tanks are no longer planned for the booster or spaceship, all that work may have been for nothing. Needless to say, we could certainly do for Musk’s proposed Reddit AMA – if not an entirely new BFR update event – to shed some light on the machinations behind these earthshaking programmatic changes.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk teases huge merger: ‘Trending towards convergence’

“My companies are, surprisingly in some ways, trending towards convergence.”

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Elon Musk recently amplified the thoughts of Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, who had insight into the “Muskonomy” of his potentially interconnected ventures, something that was proposed at the recent Tesla Shareholder Meeting with xAI.

Musk’s words indicate a potential strategic fusion that could serve as a blueprint for future innovation–but it is dependent on a conglomeration between the many entities the CEO serves.

As Tesla grapples with scaling Optimus and preparing for its imminent production and the development of the Full Self-Driving suite, xAI’s computational edge could provide leverage for the millions of miles of data the company accumulates, providing a more stable and accurate development strategy for the autonomous and AI efforts it has put its chips all in on.

After Tesla Shareholders voted to deny Tesla and xAI’s potential financial partnership through an investment, Jonas said it was an issue that would have to be revisited due to its importance.

xAI has the opportunity to provide an incredible strategic and financial bolstering to Tesla, especially with how important a role data plays in the development of the company’s biggest products.

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Jonas wrote in a note to investors:

“They’re gonna have to revisit this. We don’t think investors understand just how important xAI is to Tesla and the broader Muskonomy. Tesla’s relationship with xAI (financially and strategically) is deterministic to the long-term success of Tesla due in part to the natural synergies of data, software, hardware, and manufacturing in recursive loops. The values (and value systems) of both Tesla and xAI are endowed by the values of their shared creator. We believe this co-determination becomes more obvious in the next phases of physical AI/ autonomy for Tesla in the year ahead.”

Musk said, in response to Jonas’ note, that his companies are “surprisingly in some ways, trending toward convergence.”

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Mergers and shared ecosystems between companies are not new moves out of Musk’s playbook, as it has been done in the past, especially with Tesla acquiring other entities.

It did it with SolarCity in 2016 and with Maxwell Technologies in 2019. Investments between Musk companies have occurred before, too, as SpaceX dumped $2 billion into xAI last July.

He’s also said on several occasions that he could eventually bring everything together into some sort of single entity. In July 2024, he said:

“I’m not opposed to the idea in principle, but I’m not sure there is a pragmatic or legal way to merge them. There is also value in equity incentives of people at the companies being tied to that company’s accomplishments.”

This point is especially relevant now with Musk’s recently approved compensation package.

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He also said in June, during an interview with CNBC , that “It’s not out of the question” for xAI to merge with Tesla, but it would have to be approved by shareholders. Just a few days later, he said he would not support xAI merging with Tesla; however, he put it in investors’ hands.

It’s more than just a deal; it’s symbiotic. Musk being at the helm of various companies, all intertwined with one another, helps foster recursive innovation. Despite these advantages, there are still a handful of things to consider, especially from a regulatory perspective.

However, it is not competition; it’s convergence. In Musk’s universe, especially from a business sense, mergers are not endpoints, but instead launchpads for ambitions that aim to take each company from Earth to lands beyond our atmosphere.

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Tesla makes Elon Musk’s new compensation package official

This is an important thing to note, as much of the media coverage regarding Musk’s pay package seems to indicate that the company and the shareholders are simply giving the CEO the money. He has to come through on each of these tranches to unlock the $1 trillion.

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Credit: @JoeTegtmeyer/X

Tesla has made CEO Elon Musk’s new compensation package official, as it filed a Form 4 with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Monday.

The package officially gives Musk the opportunity to acquire over 423 million shares of Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA), dependent on his ability to achieve twelve performance-based tranches that will bring growth to the company and its shareholders.

Tesla (TSLA) shareholders officially approve Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award

Musk’s new compensation package was approved by investors last Thursday at the company’s Annual Shareholder Meeting, as over 75 percent of voters supported the CEO’s new plan, which could be valued at over $1 trillion if he is able to come through on all twelve tranches.

The twelve tranches include growth goals related to vehicle deliveries, the Optimus humanoid robot project, and Tesla’s valuation. If Musk is able to achieve each tranche, he would help Tesla achieve an over $8 trillion market cap.

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The 12 tranches include:

  1. $2 trillion market cap + Deliver 20 million Tesla vehicles cumulatively
  2. $2.5 trillion market cap + Reach 10 million active Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscriptions
  3. $3 trillion market cap + Deliver 1 million Optimus humanoid robots
  4. $3.5 trillion market cap + Operate 1 million Robotaxis commercially
  5. $4 trillion market cap + Hit $50 billion in adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, etc.)
  6. $4.5 trillion market cap + Hit $80 billion in adjusted EBITDA
  7. $5 trillion market cap + Hit $130 billion in adjusted EBITDA
  8. $5.5 trillion market cap + Hit $210 billion in adjusted EBITDA
  9. $6 trillion market cap + Hit $300 billion in adjusted EBITDA
  10. $6.5 trillion market cap + Hit $400 billion in adjusted EBITDA
  11. $7.5 trillion market cap + Hit $400 billion in adjusted EBITDA for four straight quarters in a row
  12. $8.5 trillion market cap + Hit $400 billion in adjusted EBITDA for four straight quarters in a row

Achieving the twelve levels of the new compensation package would also give Musk what he’s really after: a larger ownership share in Tesla, which would help him achieve more control, something he feels is necessary for the rollout of the Optimus robot “army.”

Musk does not earn a dime if he does not achieve any of the tranches above.

This is an important thing to note, as much of the media coverage regarding Musk’s pay package seems to indicate that the company and the shareholders are simply giving the CEO the money. He has to come through on each of these tranches to unlock the $1 trillion.

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Tesla provides vehicles for German firefighters’ EV training program

The sessions were aimed at improving emergency services for accidents involving electric vehicles.

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Credit: Tesla Manufacturing/X

Firefighters from across Germany recently gathered at Tesla Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg to practice emergency procedures on electric vehicles. The first training session last weekend focused on dismantling Tesla vehicles using spreaders, shears, and saws, giving responders hands-on experience with modern EV construction and safety features. 

The sessions were aimed at improving emergency services for accidents involving electric vehicles, which, while less likely to catch fire than conventional cars, require special handling.

Challenges for first responders

During the exercises, firefighters discovered that Tesla vehicles’ sturdy, unified body panels, which are among the reasons why they are among the safest cars on the road, made cutting doors and roofs more difficult than in older vehicles, as noted in an rbb24 report.

“It was a real eye-opener,” firefighter Martin Haschick said, adding that his first attempt showed him “how not to do it, because we are also trained on older vehicles, and that took longer than I expected.” Tesla trainers demonstrated proper techniques to safely dismantle vehicles, emphasizing differences between older combustion-engine cars and today’s EVs.

Patrick Fath, head of the Tesla plant fire brigade, explained that hands-on experience with current EVs is critical, as scrap cars typically used in training do not reflect modern material strengths or technological design.

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“They naturally have a completely different level of technology and different material strengths. But what can happen to us in everyday life – on the highway, on the roads, involves modern vehicles,” Fath stated.

Future training programs

Tesla plans to continue offering training for regional fire departments and state fire service schools, with the Brandenburg Ministry of the Interior observing the initial sessions to provide feedback. Exercises currently avoid live fires or fluid leaks due to the factory’s location in a drinking water protection zone. Tesla covers the costs of these programs, aiming to enhance first responders’ knowledge of modern EV safety and accident procedures.

In a comment, Fath highlighted that electric vehicle fires should not be too much of a problem, considering that the vehicles don’t catch fire as often as their combustion-powered counterparts. “Studies and experience from recent years have already shown that electric vehicles catch fire far less often than conventional vehicles. We have far fewer flammable materials, no gasoline or diesel tank, and therefore fewer ignition sources,” Fath stated.

Authorities have announced similar conclusions. The German Insurance Association (GDV) has confirmed that EVs catch fire significantly less often than combustion-powered cars, with statistics showing that around 14,200 vehicles caught fire in Germany in 2023. At the time, no higher fire risk was found in EVs. Data from the US National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) from 2024 also showed that about 25 out of 100,000 EVs catch fire, which is notably fewer than the 1,530 out of 100,000 combustion-powered vehicles that catch fire.

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