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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk teases Mars breakthroughs as Starship design radically changes
During an interview with Axios, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk noted that he was “[really fired up about] a number of breakthroughs [SpaceX had recently made]” while being asked about his thoughts on the likelihood of him personally going to Mars (“70%”).
The minute-long teaser did not go much deeper but it certainly raises a number of questions (and hints at explanations) for a rapid-fire series of contradictory developments and changes to SpaceX’s BFR – since renamed to “Starship” and “Super Heavy” – per a series of tweets from Musk over the last two weeks.
In a typical Muskian fashion, when Axios interviewers asked, “What is the likelihood that you personally will go to Mars?”, the CEO responded with an exact percentage – 70% – without skipping a beat. Musk also fervently and rather eloquently refuted the popular and harebrained idea that any SpaceX-enabled Mars colony would simply become “an escape hatch for the rich”. If the rich wanted Mars or lunar bases as “escape hatches”, there are dozens of multibillionaires that could singlehandedly fund Musk’s estimated $2-10B price tag for the completion of the entire BFR development program while still retaining 50-90% of their net worth.
Musk’s retort is worth reading in full.
Mike Allen: “[Mars] could be an escape hatch for rich people.”
Elon Musk: “No! Your probability of dying on Mars is much higher than earth. Really the ad for going to Mars would be like Shackleton’s ad for going to the Antarctic. It’s gonna be hard. There’s a good chance of death, going in a little can through deep space. You might land successfully. Once you land successfully, you’ll be working nonstop to build the base. So, you know, not much time for leisure, and once you get there, even after doing all this, it’s a very harsh environment, so there’s a good chance you die there. We think you can come back but we’re not sure. Now, does that sound like an escape hatch for rich people?”
Back to BFR
While thoroughly entertaining, the most interesting aspect of this one-minute teaser was the approximate two seconds where Musk suggested that SpaceX had recently made several major breakthroughs in the context of BFR and Mars. What exactly those breakthroughs could be is entirely unclear, but the fact that Musk seemed positive about the recent developments and spoke of “breakthroughs” at all feels like an encouraging sign that the last two weeks of Musk’s chaotic announcements, updates, and abrupt cancellations are less indicative of program instability than they initially seemed to be.
Most notably, Musk appeared to announce and then completely cancel a sort of mini-spaceship that SpaceX was to base off of Falcon 9’s upper stage as a BFR spaceship technology demonstrator in less than two weeks. If realized, that mini-BFS would have reentered Earth’s atmosphere at orbital velocities to flight-test hypersonic fins and a new “ultra light” heat shield that will be (or would have been) critical for the overall success of BFS/Starship.
Contour remains approx same, but fundamental materials change to airframe, tanks & heatshield
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 25, 2018
Ironically, in the middle of writing this article, Musk tweeted specifically about “fundamental” changes to the spaceship, leaving little more than the general appearance and propulsion systems unchanged. In essence, the design of BFS/Starship is now almost unrecognizable when compared with past iterations, at least from a perspective of the ship’s most critical systems.If Starship will not be built out of composites, then it’s possible that the multiple years SpaceX engineers and technicians have spent trying to develop large carbon composite propellant tanks (2016-present) and the time, energy, and capital put into those efforts will be almost entirely for naught if BFR pivots away from composite tanks.
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- A tall platform was moved inside the tent around November 10th, likely to support the integration of the tank dome and barrel section. (Pauline Acalin)
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- The dome was spied inside the tent on November 12. (Pauline Acalin)
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- SpaceX’s BFR tent is filled with custom hardware that is predominately useful only for building large composite rocket parts. (Pauline Acalin)
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- SpaceX’s huge Port of LA-based BFR tent, September 18th. (Pauline Acalin)
By all appearances, dozens of employees have spent the last year accepting delivery of $10-50M worth of custom-built composite tooling, setting it up, and building giant composite tank domes and segments. If composite tanks are no longer planned for the booster or spaceship, all that work may have been for nothing. Needless to say, we could certainly do for Musk’s proposed Reddit AMA – if not an entirely new BFR update event – to shed some light on the machinations behind these earthshaking programmatic changes.
Cybertruck
Chattanooga Charge: Tesla and EV fans ready for the Southeast’s wildest Tesla party
From Cybertruck Convoys to Kid-Friendly Fun Zones: The Chattanooga Charge Has Something for Everyone
Hundreds of like-minded Tesla and EV enthusiasts are descending on Chattanooga Charge this weekend for the largest Tesla meet in the Southeast. Taking place on March 20–22, 2026 at the stunning Tennessee Riverpark.
If you were there last year, you’ll know that it’s the ultimate experience to see the wildest Teslas in action, see the best in EV tech, and arguably the most fun – finally put a name to the face and connect with those social media buddies IRL! Oh, and that epic night time Tesla light show is a once-in-a-lifetime experience that will transform the Riverpark into something out of a sci-fi film that’s remarkably unforgettable and must be seen in person.
This year’s event takes everything up a notch, with over 100 Cybertrucks expected to be on display, many sporting jaw-dropping modifications and custom wraps that push the boundaries of what these stainless steel beasts can look like.
Whether you’re a diehard Tesla fan, EV supporter, or just EV-mod-curious, the sheer spectacle is worth the drive.
The Chattanooga Charge doesn’t wait until Saturday morning to get started. The weekend technically kicks off Friday, March 20th, and the venue sets the tone immediately. Come share roadtrip stories over drinks at the W-XYZ Rooftop Bar on the top floor of the Aloft Chattanooga Hamilton Place Hotel, with sunset views over the city.
Come morning, nurse your hangover with a some good coffee, and convoy with hundreds of other Tesla and EV drivers through Chattanooga to the event for some morning meet and greets before the speaker panel starts and the food trucks fire up.
Tesla owner clubs travel from across the country to be here, not just to show off their vehicles,, but to connect, share, and celebrate a shared passion for the future of driving.
Sounds like a plan to me. See you there, guys. Don’t miss it. Get your tickets at ChattanoogaCharge.com and join the charge. 🔋⚡
Chattanooga Charge is a premier Tesla and EV gathering inspired by the X Takeover, known as one of the largest Tesla event gatherings. What began as a bold idea from the team at DIY Wraps/TESBROS, hosted in their hometown of Chattanooga, Tennessee, the event quickly became a movement across social media. The first annual Chattanooga Charge united over 16 Tesla clubs from 16 states, proof that the EV community was hungry for something big in the South. Year after year, the event has grown in scale, ambition, and heart.
News
Tesla Full Self-Driving gets latest bit of scrutiny from NHTSA
The analysis impacts roughly 3.2 million vehicles across the company’s entire lineup, and aims to identify how the suite’s degradation detection systems work and how effective they are when the cars encounter difficult visibility conditions.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has elevated its probe into Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) suite to an Engineering Analysis.
The analysis impacts roughly 3.2 million vehicles across the company’s entire lineup, and aims to identify how the suite’s degradation detection systems work and how effective they are when the cars encounter difficult visibility conditions.
The step up into an Engineering Analysis is often required before the NHTSA will tell an automaker to issue a recall. However, this is not a guarantee that a recall will be issued.
🚨 The NHTSA said it was upgrading a probe into Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) platform to an “engineering analysis”
It will examine 3.2 million vehicles and aims to determine its effectiveness in evaluating degraded road conditions pic.twitter.com/2dkrv1mR8o
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) March 19, 2026
The NTHSA wants to examine Tesla FSD’s ability to assess road conditions that have reduced visibility, as well as detect degradation to alert the driver with sufficient time to respond.
The Office of Defects Investigation (ODI) will evaluate the performance of FSD in degraded roadway conditions and the updates or modifications Tesla makes to the degradation detection system, including the timing, purpose, and capabilities of the updates.
Tesla routinely ships software updates to improve the capabilities of the FSD suite, so it will be interesting to see if various versions of FSD are tested. Interestingly, you can find many examples from real-world users of FSD handling snow-covered roads, heavy rain, and single-lane backroads.
However, there are incidents that the NHTSA has used to determine the need for this probe, at least for now. The agency said:
“Available incident data raise concerns that Tesla’s degradation detection system, both as originally deployed and later updated, fails to detect and/or warn the driver appropriately under degraded visibility conditions such as glare and airborne obscurants. In the crashes that ODI has reviewed, the system did not detect common roadway conditions that impaired camera visibility and/or provide alerts when camera performance had deteriorated until immediately before the crash occurred.”
It continues to say in its report that a review of Tesla’s responses revealed additional crashes that occurred in similar environments showed FSD “did not detect a degraded state, and/or it did not present the driver with an alert with adequate time for the driver to react. In each of these crashes, FSD also lost track of or never detected a lead vehicle in its path.”
The next steps of the NHTSA Engineering Analysis require the agency to gather further information on Tesla’s attempts to upgrade the degradation detection system. It will also analyze six recent potentially related incidents.
The investigation is listed as EA26002.
Elon Musk
SpaceX’s Starship V3 is almost ready and it will change space travel forever
SpaceX is targeting April for the debut test launch of Starship V3 “Version 3”
SpaceX is closing in on one of the most anticipated rocket launches in history, as the company readies for a planned April test launch and debut of its next-gen Starship V3 “Version 3”.
The latest iteration of Starship V3 has a slightly taller Super Heavy booster and Starship upper stage than their predecessors, and produce stronger, more efficient thrust using SpaceX’s upgraded Raptor 3 engines. V3 also features increased propellant capacity, targeting a total payload capacity of over 100 tons to low Earth orbit, compared to around 35 tons for its predecessor. With Musk’s lifelong aspiration to colonize Mars one day, the increased payload capacity matters enormously, because Mars missions require moving massive amounts of cargo, fuel, and eventually, people. But the most critical upgrade may be orbital refueling. SpaceX’s entire deep space architecture depends on moving large amounts of propellant in space, and having orbital refueling capabilities turn Starship from just a rocket into a true transport system. Without it, neither the Moon nor Mars is reachable at scale.
Initial Super Heavy V3 and Starbase Pad 2 activation campaign complete, wrapping up several days of testing that loaded cryogenic fuel and oxidizer on a V3 vehicle for the first time. While the 10-engine static fire ended early due to a ground-side issue, we saw successful… pic.twitter.com/uHGji17srv
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) March 18, 2026
A fully reusable Starship and Super Heavy, SpaceX aims to drive marginal launch costs down and at a tenfold reduction compared to current market leaders. To put that in perspective, getting a kilogram of cargo to orbit today costs thousands of dollars. Bring that number down far enough and space stops being an exclusive domain. That price point unlocks mass deployment of satellite constellations, large-scale science payloads, and affordable human transport beyond Earth orbit. It also means the Moon stops being a destination we visit and starts being one we inhabit.
NASA expects Starship to take off for the Moon’s South Pole in 2028, with the ultimate goal of establishing a permanently crewed science station there. A successful V3 flight this spring keeps that timeline alive. As for Mars, Musk has shifted focus toward building a self-sustaining city on the Moon first, arguing that the Moon can be reached every 10 days versus Mars’s 26-month alignment window. Mars remains the horizon, but the Moon is the proving ground.
Elon Musk hasn’t been shy with hyping the upcoming Starship V3 launch. In a social media post on Wednesday, he confirmed the first V3 flight is getting closer to launch. SpaceX also announced its initial activation campaign for V3 and Starbase Pad 2 was complete, wrapping up several days of cryogenic fuel testing on a V3 vehicle for the first time. The countdown is on. April can’t come soon enough.
Chattanooga Charge: Tesla and EV fans ready for the Southeast’s wildest Tesla party
Tesla Full Self-Driving gets latest bit of scrutiny from NHTSA
