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SpaceX on track for biweekly launch cadence in the remainder of year

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8 years ago

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Weekly rapid reuse launches expected by 2019

The foggy, atmospheric launch of Iridium-2 just yesterday. (SpaceX)

Following a weekend of extraordinary accomplishments, seeing SpaceX flawlessly execute two missions – one with a reused first stage – in just over 48 hours of each other, the company has capitalized on a uniquely successful weekend and year and offered information about their future plans.

The launch of BulgariaSat-1 and Iridium-2 on Friday and Sunday respectively marked the eight and ninth launches of 2017 for SpaceX, and officials at the company are reportedly expecting to launch approximately 24 missions this year, meaning 15 more to come over the next 6 months. Given the recent demonstration of 48 hour launch cadence and a more regular schedule of biweekly launches in the past few months, an expectation of 15 more launches for 2017 lines up perfectly with a cadence of two launches a month from LC-39A Cape Canaveral and three Iridium launches from Vandenberg, which happens to be exactly what is currently manifested.

Originally manifested for up to 27 launches this year, successfully launching 24 missions, one of which might be the inaugural flight of Falcon Heavy, would be extraordinarily hard to ignore in an industry that has compared the launch industry to manufacturing beverage containers and argued that reuse is only sustainable with more than 20 launches a year on a company’s manifest.

BulgariaSat-1 was successfully launched 48 hours before Iridium-2, and marked the second successful, commercial reuse of an orbital rocket. (SpaceX)

SpaceX is now likely to undertake 24 launches this year, but the company also revealed this weekend that it intends to achieve a regular weekly launch cadence (52 launches per year) as soon as 2019. In a recent article, I speculated that we might begin to see regular weekly launches once both LC-39A and LC-40 were active, and that appears to be nearly correct. If SpaceX is to regularly conduct weekly launches by 2019, it is bound to begin shrinking its two week cadence as soon as is safe and possible. This will likely occur once Falcon Heavy has successfully flown several times from LC-39A, thus freeing SpaceX to deem the vehicle operational and less at risk of destroying one of their two Eastern pads.

There is also a tentative understanding that SpaceX is striving to construct and activate their planned Boca Chica, Texas launch complex by 2019. The successful reactivation of LC-40 and subsequent modification of LC-39A for Falcon Heavy will leave the brunt of SpaceX’s launch complex maintenance and construction teams free to focus entirely on the Texas facility sometime late this year or early next year, meaning that Boca Chica pad activation could certainly occur as early as 2019. This would leave the company with two fully operational all-purpose launch pads dedicated to Falcon 9 launches if they choose to retain LC-39A solely for Falcon Heavy and Commercial Crew launches, allowing them to reach weekly cadences even before the launches of Falcon Heavy, Commercial Crew contracts, and Vandenberg launches are accounted for.

One crucial factor playing into SpaceX’s ability to launch 52 times in a year is of course reusability, as it is hard to imagine SpaceX more than doubling their Falcon manufacturing capabilities in under a year and a half. Likely no coincidence, SpaceX simultaneously offered information to insurance underwriters about the increasing speed of their ability to launch, recover, and reuse first stages. More specifically, a spokesman of the company stated that the reuse of BulgariaSat-1’s Falcon 9 1029 took considerably less than half as long as the inaugural reuse of the stage that launched SES-10 earlier this year, implying that refurbishment and quality assurance checks for 1029 took something like four or five months total.

With SpaceX having debuted new titanium grid fins intended to speed up reuse on the Sunday launch of Iridium-2, the company is well on its way to transferring over to Block 4 (upgraded engine performance) and possibly Block 5 of Falcon 9 later this. Block 5 is expected to introduced major changes meant to replace aspects of the current Falcon 9 that require major refurbishment after recovery. Musk detailed these changes several months ago in a Reddit AMA (Ask Me Anything), mentioning that reusable heat shielding around the engines, improved landing legs, and titanium grid fins were the main aspects of a Block 5 of Falcon 9 meant to offer rapid reuse without refurbishment. In June 22nd interview on the Space Show, Gwynne Shotwell reiterated that this “final” version of Falcon 9 is expected to be able to launch, land, and relaunch with barely more than a thorough once-over, and ought to be capable of flying a dozen missions at least.

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Falcon 9’s fancy new titanium grid fins. (SpaceX/Instagram)

This final piece of the puzzle of weekly cadence fits in quite nicely. With a possible introduction date for Block 5 of late 2017 or early 2018, SpaceX will likely end production of Block 3 by the end of this year and transfer over entirely to the easily reusable Block 5. Assuming a continuing a trend of increasingly reuse-friendly customers, Hawthorne production capacity of approximately 20 Falcon 9s per year, and a plausibly significant reduction in launch costs due to more rapid and complete reuse, SpaceX could find themselves at the start of 2019 with a dozen or more launch vehicles that are each capable of conducting upwards of 10-12 highly affordable launches each.

Let there be no doubt: these are incredibly optimistic and difficult goals for the company to achieve on the timescale they have provided. However, given the number of beneficial changes likely to soon be made to both the launch vehicles and SpaceX’s manufacturing, launch, and refurbishment facilities in the next 6-12 months, those goals are realistically achievable, albeit with some likely delays. Regardless, things are beginning to get rather intense for SpaceX and for the launch industry in general.

Keep your eyes peeled for upcoming Teslarati coverage of SpaceX’s next July 4th launch and its static fire that is scheduled for as soon as this Thursday.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla reportedly places large order for robot parts, hinting that Optimus V3 design is all but finalized

Tesla has reportedly placed a large order of linear actuators for humanoid robots from a Chinese supplier.

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1 hour ago

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October 15, 2025

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla might have all but finalized the design for its Optimus V3 humanoid robot, at least if rumors from China prove accurate. As per recent reports, Tesla has reportedly placed a large order of linear actuators for humanoid robots from a Chinese supplier, with deliveries expected sometime in the first quarter of 2026.

The volume of orders suggested by the reports from China suggests that the components will not just be used for Optimus prototypes.

The rumor

As noted in a report from Sina News, media outlets across China have recently reported that Tesla has placed a $685 million (5 billion RMB) order for linear actuators from Sanhua Intelligent Controls. The components will reportedly be used for the production of Optimus, which will likely be mass-produced in its V3 iteration. The reports claimed that the delivery of the actuators will likely start sometime in the first quarter of 2026. 

Industry watchers have estimated that such a volume would be enough for about 180,000 Optimus robots. This suggests that while Tesla might not be able to start the initial production of its humanoid robots this year, the electric vehicle maker might be able to hit the ground running with its Optimus production next year. And as hinted at by Elon Musk’s comments on X, Tesla seems to be preparing to produce Optimus V3 en masse.

Company comments

The reports of Tesla’s alleged actuator orders have resulted in Sanhua Intelligent Controls’ stock rising. Interestingly enough, a Tesla China representative has stated that “no official information about this order that could be disseminated externally.” A representative from Sanhua, on the other hand, simply stated that the company’s robotics business is progressing smoothly, but they could not comment on market rumors. 

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While these reports are rumors for now, there are some optimistic hints that Tesla might have all but finalized the design for Optimus V3, and the company might be looking to start the robot’s production. For one, Sanhua is already a Tesla supplier, providing components for the company’s electric cars. A report from The Information also alleged that Tesla is no longer looking to produce 5,000 Optimus robots in 2025. This was reportedly due to challenges in the robot’s hands.

If Tesla is really starting to order large volumes of components for Optimus’ production, it would suggest that the company might have overcome the challenges it was facing with the humanoid robot earlier this year. It would then not be farfetched if Tesla were able to start the initial production of Optimus V3 next year.

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Tesla eyes two new states for Robotaxi

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18 hours ago

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October 14, 2025

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Credit: @TerrapinTerpene/X

Tesla has officially shown that it is eyeing two new states for Robotaxi operation in the U.S., as it hopes to add the new areas to its ever-growing list of places where the suite is either active or in the testing phase.

Tesla first launched its Robotaxi suite in Austin, Texas, in late June. It expanded the suite to the San Francisco Bay Area just a month later. Since then, it has not launched any public rides in any other states, but it has gained several approvals for early testing.

Tesla officially launches Robotaxi service with no driver

In preparation for operation in new states, Tesla routinely lists job postings on its Careers website, which helps align potential employees with opportunities ahead of regulatory approvals. This is a strategy that allows Tesla to start operations immediately upon licensing for testing.

Tesla started hiring Vehicle Operators for Autopilot in Arizona and Nevada months before the company gained any sort of approvals from state governments for Robotaxi. However, those approvals eventually came in the form of testing licenses, which allow the company to perform validation ahead of its public launch.

Tesla begins validating Robotaxi in a new area, hinting at expansion

Now, Tesla has posted job listings for Vehicle Operators for Autopilot in two new states: Colorado and Illinois. The Colorado job listing is located in Aurora, a suburb of Denver. Tesla is looking for Robotaxi operators in Chicago as well.

These postings hint toward Tesla’s continuing efforts to expand Robotaxi to new places. Earlier this year, CEO Elon Musk said the company would like to have Robotaxi available to at least half of the U.S. population.

It has expanded significantly since its initial launch in late June, but it is still a far way off from where Tesla would like it to be by year’s end.

So far, Tesla has job listings for Autopilot Vehicle Operators in Arizona, California, Texas, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, and Illinois.

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Elon Musk

Tesla launched an ad for Elon Musk’s pay package on Paramount+

Published

19 hours ago

on

October 14, 2025

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla’s advertising strategy has taken a drastic turn as the company’s upcoming Shareholder Meeting will feature perhaps the most crucial vote in its history: the approval of CEO Elon Musk’s new pay package.

For years, the issue of Tesla’s advertising and marketing strategy has been a major point of conversation for investors in fans. It seems to be split right down the middle, with half wanting Tesla to set aside some money for advertising. The other half, just the opposite.

Tesla has been transparent that the money it would spend on advertising, marketing, and public relations is better set aside for the development of future products.

However, it has recently adopted a different tone in advertising, pushing some commercials on social media platforms like X and Instagram.

For the first time, an ad was seen on streaming services like Paramount+, but it wasn’t promoting Tesla’s products directly. Instead, it was more of a message for shareholders to vote on Musk’s pay package, something Tesla feels is a necessity:

“The future of Tesla is in your hands,” the ad reads at the end. It seems as if Tesla is taking whatever steps it needs to accomplish the task of getting Musk a new pay package and retaining him as its CEO.

On September 5, Tesla officially outlined its plans for a CEO Performance Award for Musk. It would require him to lift Tesla’s market capitalization to about $8.5 trillion, up from the $1.36 trillion it sits at today.

Elon Musk’s new pay plan ties trillionaire status to Tesla’s $8.5 trillion valuation

It is obvious that Tesla is really hoping to get the pay package passed and is willing to shift some of its budget to encourage shareholders to vote.

However, there are some interesting perspectives on the move, and it’s sort of strange to see Tesla not advertising its vehicles or products, but only its pay package that would get its CEO paid.

Some of those who saw the ad are questioning the strategy:

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