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SpaceX on track for biweekly launch cadence in the remainder of year

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8 years ago

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Weekly rapid reuse launches expected by 2019

The foggy, atmospheric launch of Iridium-2 just yesterday. (SpaceX)

Following a weekend of extraordinary accomplishments, seeing SpaceX flawlessly execute two missions – one with a reused first stage – in just over 48 hours of each other, the company has capitalized on a uniquely successful weekend and year and offered information about their future plans.

The launch of BulgariaSat-1 and Iridium-2 on Friday and Sunday respectively marked the eight and ninth launches of 2017 for SpaceX, and officials at the company are reportedly expecting to launch approximately 24 missions this year, meaning 15 more to come over the next 6 months. Given the recent demonstration of 48 hour launch cadence and a more regular schedule of biweekly launches in the past few months, an expectation of 15 more launches for 2017 lines up perfectly with a cadence of two launches a month from LC-39A Cape Canaveral and three Iridium launches from Vandenberg, which happens to be exactly what is currently manifested.

Originally manifested for up to 27 launches this year, successfully launching 24 missions, one of which might be the inaugural flight of Falcon Heavy, would be extraordinarily hard to ignore in an industry that has compared the launch industry to manufacturing beverage containers and argued that reuse is only sustainable with more than 20 launches a year on a company’s manifest.

BulgariaSat-1 was successfully launched 48 hours before Iridium-2, and marked the second successful, commercial reuse of an orbital rocket. (SpaceX)

SpaceX is now likely to undertake 24 launches this year, but the company also revealed this weekend that it intends to achieve a regular weekly launch cadence (52 launches per year) as soon as 2019. In a recent article, I speculated that we might begin to see regular weekly launches once both LC-39A and LC-40 were active, and that appears to be nearly correct. If SpaceX is to regularly conduct weekly launches by 2019, it is bound to begin shrinking its two week cadence as soon as is safe and possible. This will likely occur once Falcon Heavy has successfully flown several times from LC-39A, thus freeing SpaceX to deem the vehicle operational and less at risk of destroying one of their two Eastern pads.

There is also a tentative understanding that SpaceX is striving to construct and activate their planned Boca Chica, Texas launch complex by 2019. The successful reactivation of LC-40 and subsequent modification of LC-39A for Falcon Heavy will leave the brunt of SpaceX’s launch complex maintenance and construction teams free to focus entirely on the Texas facility sometime late this year or early next year, meaning that Boca Chica pad activation could certainly occur as early as 2019. This would leave the company with two fully operational all-purpose launch pads dedicated to Falcon 9 launches if they choose to retain LC-39A solely for Falcon Heavy and Commercial Crew launches, allowing them to reach weekly cadences even before the launches of Falcon Heavy, Commercial Crew contracts, and Vandenberg launches are accounted for.

One crucial factor playing into SpaceX’s ability to launch 52 times in a year is of course reusability, as it is hard to imagine SpaceX more than doubling their Falcon manufacturing capabilities in under a year and a half. Likely no coincidence, SpaceX simultaneously offered information to insurance underwriters about the increasing speed of their ability to launch, recover, and reuse first stages. More specifically, a spokesman of the company stated that the reuse of BulgariaSat-1’s Falcon 9 1029 took considerably less than half as long as the inaugural reuse of the stage that launched SES-10 earlier this year, implying that refurbishment and quality assurance checks for 1029 took something like four or five months total.

With SpaceX having debuted new titanium grid fins intended to speed up reuse on the Sunday launch of Iridium-2, the company is well on its way to transferring over to Block 4 (upgraded engine performance) and possibly Block 5 of Falcon 9 later this. Block 5 is expected to introduced major changes meant to replace aspects of the current Falcon 9 that require major refurbishment after recovery. Musk detailed these changes several months ago in a Reddit AMA (Ask Me Anything), mentioning that reusable heat shielding around the engines, improved landing legs, and titanium grid fins were the main aspects of a Block 5 of Falcon 9 meant to offer rapid reuse without refurbishment. In June 22nd interview on the Space Show, Gwynne Shotwell reiterated that this “final” version of Falcon 9 is expected to be able to launch, land, and relaunch with barely more than a thorough once-over, and ought to be capable of flying a dozen missions at least.

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Falcon 9’s fancy new titanium grid fins. (SpaceX/Instagram)

This final piece of the puzzle of weekly cadence fits in quite nicely. With a possible introduction date for Block 5 of late 2017 or early 2018, SpaceX will likely end production of Block 3 by the end of this year and transfer over entirely to the easily reusable Block 5. Assuming a continuing a trend of increasingly reuse-friendly customers, Hawthorne production capacity of approximately 20 Falcon 9s per year, and a plausibly significant reduction in launch costs due to more rapid and complete reuse, SpaceX could find themselves at the start of 2019 with a dozen or more launch vehicles that are each capable of conducting upwards of 10-12 highly affordable launches each.

Let there be no doubt: these are incredibly optimistic and difficult goals for the company to achieve on the timescale they have provided. However, given the number of beneficial changes likely to soon be made to both the launch vehicles and SpaceX’s manufacturing, launch, and refurbishment facilities in the next 6-12 months, those goals are realistically achievable, albeit with some likely delays. Regardless, things are beginning to get rather intense for SpaceX and for the launch industry in general.

Keep your eyes peeled for upcoming Teslarati coverage of SpaceX’s next July 4th launch and its static fire that is scheduled for as soon as this Thursday.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla tips off where it wants to expand Robotaxi next

Tesla looks to have its sights on several major cities in the United States to expand Robotaxi operation.

Published

17 minutes ago

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July 31, 2025

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Credit: @AdanGuajardo/X

Tesla has tipped off where it wants to expand its Robotaxi ride-hailing platform next, as it has launched rides in the San Francisco Bay Area on Thursday.

Austin, Texas, and the Bay Area of California are the two areas where Tesla is currently operating its ride-hailing service. In Austin, there is nobody in the driver’s seat, whereas in California, the rides will operate with someone in the driver’s seat.

This is a regulatory difference, but it is not all bad. California’s geofence for the ride-hailing service is nearly 70 miles long and spans from above San Francisco to the south, all the way down to San Jose.

However, this is not where Tesla is stopping. Expansion is going to occur when Tesla is ready to do so, but it is not being conservative with its expectations.

During last week’s Q2 2025 Earnings Call, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said he expects half of the U.S. population to have access to Robotaxi by the end of the year:

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“As we get the approvals and prove out safety, we will be launching the autonomous ride-hailing across most of the country. I think we will probably have autonomous ride-hailing in probably half the population of the US by the end of the year. That’s at least our goal, subject to regulatory approvals. I think we will technically be able to do it. Assuming we have regulatory approvals, it’s probably addressing half the population of the US by the end of the year. We are being very cautious. We do not want to take any chances, so we are going to go cautiously. But the service areas and the number of vehicles in operation will increase at a hyper-exponential rate.”

In order to do this, Tesla will need to expand to additional cities. A recent list of job postings captured by Tesla Yoda on X showed that the automaker is hiring in major metropolitan areas of the U.S. to reach more people.

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The cities listed in the job postings are:

  • Palo Alto, California
  • Brooklyn, New York
  • Houston, Texas
  • Dallas, Texas
  • Tempe, Arizona
  • Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Tampa, Florida
  • Orlando, Florida
  • Miami, Florida

Accessing markets like New York City, Dallas, Las Vegas, Miami, Tampa, and Orlando will enable Tesla to gain access to more customers. These are also major hotspots for tourism in the United States, where people might be able to get Tesla Robotaxi rides during trips or vacations.

These cities are unconfirmed to be in Tesla’s sites as it has not made any official statements about where it will expand in the future. However, these job postings are a good indication of where it could be looking in order to expand.

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Tesla expands Robotaxi operation to California’s Bay Area

Tesla now has Robotaxi operation in two areas in the United States, as it has officially expanded to the Bay Area of California.

Published

2 hours ago

on

July 31, 2025

By

Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer | X

Tesla has expanded its Robotaxi platform to California’s Bay Area, marking the second major region it will be operating a ride-sharing service in the United States.

The Bay Area is the second area within the U.S. where Tesla has launched the Robotaxi platform, joining Austin, Texas.

However, there are some slight differences between how Tesla Robotaxi is operating in Austin compared to the Bay Area.

Last night, Tesla sent out an update to its Robotaxi app, showing there is now availability to catch a ride from a Model Y in the Bay Area. We received the update on our app:

The geofence for the Bay Area is significantly larger than what Tesla is offering in Austin. In the Bay Area, the geofence spans north of San Francisco and extends south, even below San Jose. In total, it’s about an hour and fifteen minutes from top to bottom, and it is roughly 65 miles in length.

There are some differences between Tesla’s Robotaxi offering in the two cities. In Austin, there is nobody in the driver’s seat of the vehicle, just a Safety Monitor in the passenger seat who is there to take over only in the most extreme circumstances.

In the Bay Area, there will be a human in the driver’s seat, and they will operate a version of Full Self-Driving (Supervised), but current requirements maintain that a human needs to be able to take over.

Tesla is still considering it a portion of its Robotaxi operation, but it is referring to it as a “ride-hailing service.”

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Tesla Robotaxi has been in operation in Austin since June 22. Just over a month later, the company is moving forward with a new region and has plans to bring even more cities into the mix in the coming months. Recently, Musk said that he expects half of the U.S. population to have access to Robotaxi by the end of the year.

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Tesla takes first step in sunsetting Model S and X with drastic move

Tesla won’t be taking custom orders of the Model S or Model X in Europe any longer.

Published

16 hours ago

on

July 30, 2025

By

Credit: @supergeek18 | X

Tesla has seemingly taken the first step in sunsetting two of its older vehicles, the Model S and Model X, by ending international orders.

The flagship sedan and SUV from Tesla are the two oldest cars in the company’s lineup. They account for a very small portion of overall sales, and several years ago, CEO Elon Musk admitted that Tesla only continues to build and sell them due to “sentimental reasons.”

Earlier this year, there were calls for Tesla to end the production of the two cars, but Lars Moravy said that the Model S and Model X were due to get some love later in 2025. That happened, but the changes were extremely minor.

Tesla launches new Model S and Model X, and the changes are slim

Some took this as an indication that Tesla has kind of moved on from the Model S and Model X. A handful of people seemed to think Tesla would overhaul the vehicles substantially, but the changes were extremely minor and included only a few real adjustments.

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In Europe, customers are unable to even put a new order in on a Model S or Model X.

We noticed earlier today that Tesla pressing the ‘Order’ button on either of the flagship vehicles takes you to local inventory, and not the Design Studio where you’d configure your custom build:

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Tesla simply does not make enough Model S or Model X units to justify the expensive logistics process of shipping custom orders overseas. It almost seems as if they’re that they will essentially build a bunch of random configurations, send them overseas every few months, and let them sell before replenishing inventory.

Inversely, it could also mean Tesla is truly gearing up to sunset the vehicle altogether. It seems unlikely that the company will fade them out altogether in the next couple of years, but it could absolutely think about ending international orders because volume is so low.

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