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SpaceX operational astronaut launch debut back on track after “nail polish” delay

SpaceX's Crew-1 NASA astronauts pose in front of the Crew Dragon that will ferry them to the International Space Station just days before the spacecraft shipped to Florida. (SpaceX)

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In a new NASA briefing, SpaceX vice president of build and flight reliability Hans Koenigsmann was able to explain in far more detail why a recent last-second Falcon 9 launch abort happened and how it wound up delaying the company’s first operational astronaut launch.

Now scheduled to lift off no earlier than (NET) 7:49 pm EST (00:49 UTC) on Saturday, November 14th, SpaceX’s Crew Dragon Crew-1 mission was originally expected to launch in late September, October 23rd, and October 31st. On October 2nd, however, a new Falcon 9 booster – sibling to Crew-1’s own new booster – automatically aborted its GPS III SV04 satellite launch attempt just two seconds before liftoff. The rare last-second abort was quickly blamed on “unexpected pressure rise in the turbomachinery gas generator” by CEO Elon Musk.

Likely built side-by-side with faulty GPS III SV04 Falcon 9 booster B1062 at SpaceX’s Hawthorne, California factory, Crew-1 Falcon 9 booster B1061 was almost immediately inspected to search for any commonality once the cause of the abort was better understood.

SpaceX COO and President Gwynne Shotwell stands in front of the Falcon 9 booster that will soon ferry four astronauts to the ISS. (TIME/SpaceX)

Just one week before the latest briefing, NASA human spaceflight program administrator and former Commercial Crew Program manager Kathy Lueders revealed in a statement on Twitter that SpaceX was still analyzing the cause of the abort but had already determined that at least one Crew-1 booster engine would need to be replaced, as well as one engine on Falcon 9 booster B1063.

Crew-1 Falcon 9 booster B1061 arrived in Florida on July 14th. (SpaceX)
Falcon 9 booster B1063 was spotted on its way west from McGregor, Texas to Vandenberg Air Force Base, California in August. (D. Stamos)

Now, during NASA’s October 28th Crew-1 briefing, SpaceX’s Koenigsmann revealed that the company had ultimately decided to replace not one but two of Crew-1 booster B1061’s nine Merlin 1D engines. Thanks to Falcon 9’s namesake nine-engine booster design and SpaceX’s prolific rocket factory, that process was completed extraordinarily quickly, simply requiring the redirection of already qualified Merlin 1D engines from a fairly large pool. Based on Koenigsmann’s phrasing, SpaceX has already installed both replacement engines on the Crew-1 booster.

What, though, caused GPS III SV04’s launch abort and how did that affect Crew-1?

Rocket engine vs. “nail polish”

According to Koenigsmann, in the course of the rapid and complex mechanical and electrical ballet preceding Falcon 9 first stage ignition, the rocket’s autonomous flight computer observed that two of the GPS III SV04 booster’s nine Merlin 1D engines appeared to be running ahead of schedule, so to speak. The computer immediately halted the ignition process to avoid what could have otherwise been a “hard” (i.e. stressful or damaging) start. SpaceX quickly began inspecting the rocket within 24 hours but was unable to detect anything physically or electrically wrong with Falcon 9’s Merlin 1D engines and engine section.

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A Merlin 1D engine is inspected and tested in McGregor, Texas. (SpaceX)

Out of an abundance of caution, SpaceX removed both misbehaving engines and shipped them to its McGregor, Texas development and test facilities where – somewhat miraculously – the same premature startup behavior was replicated on the test stand. After a great deal of increasingly granular inspections, SpaceX finally narrowed the likely cause down to a tiny plumbing line feeding one of the engine’s gas generator relief valves. In a seemingly random subset of relatively new Merlin 1D engines, SpaceX eventually discovered that a supplier-provided relief valve line was sometimes clogged by a protective lacquer Koenigsmann likened to “red nail polish.”

A Merlin 1D is prepared at SpaceX’s Hawthorne factory. The small cylindrical tube on the side is the engine’s gas generator. (SpaceX)

Used to selectively exclude parts of the engine tubing during a surface finishing process known as anodization, the lacquer was either unsuccessfully removed on a random selection of engine parts or was accidentally channeled into a blockage by over-enthusiastic cleaning. Ultimately, for whatever, reason that miniscule blockage was enough to cause affected Merlin 1D engines to consistently attempt to ignite a tiny fraction of a second early.

Crucially, when SpaceX discovered the possible cause and cleaned out the blocked plumbing, each previously affected Merlin 1D engine performed perfectly, all but directly confirming both the cause and the cure for Falcon 9’s October 2nd abort.

A Falcon 9 Block 5 booster’s engine section and heat shield. (SpaceX/Discovery)

Astronauts enter quarantine

In anticipation of SpaceX seemingly simple solution to the gas generator problem, NASA Commercial Crew Program manager Steve Stich revealed that SpaceX’s Crew-1 mission astronauts – Shannon Walker, Victor Glover, and Mike Hopkins, and JAXA (Japanese) astronaut Soichi Noguchi – had begun routine prelaunch quarantine procedures in anticipation of a November 14th launch.

NASA astronauts Shannon Walker, Victor Glover, and Mike Hopkins, and JAXA (Japanese) astronaut Soichi Noguchi are nearly set to fly on Crew-1. (SpaceX)
Crew-1 will follow in the fresh footsteps of NASA astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley’s near-flawless Demo-2 Crew Dragon launch and landing debut. (NASA/Bill Ingalls)

Stich also offered a more specific Crew-1 schedule, beginning with an integrated Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon static fire test NET November 9th and a full dry dress rehearsal on November 11th before the first launch attempt on November 14th. Notably, thanks to coincidental orbital dynamics, a successful launch on November 14th would enable Crew Dragon to raise its orbit and rendezvous with the International Space Station a brisk eight and a half hours after liftoff – three times quicker than the more common 27.5-hour transit.

Stay tuned for updates as the mission’s launch date approaches.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla’s biggest rival in China reported a big profit decline once again

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(Credit: BYD)

Tesla’s biggest rival in China reported a big decline in its profitability for the second straight quarter, and a loss of one-third compared to the same quarter last year.

BYD overtook Tesla as the best-selling EV maker in China in the fourth quarter of 2023, finally surpassing the company in terms of sales in the region.

Is Tesla really losing to BYD, or just playing a different game?

The Chinese market is one of the most competitive in the world, especially for EVs, as the industry is healthy with young and scrappy companies looking to sell the best possible tech in their vehicles.

BYD reported its earnings on Thursday and said that its profit had slumped by 33 percent compared to the same quarter last year. For this year’s third quarter, BYD reported a net profit of 7.8 billion yuan ($1.1 billion), a 32.6 percent decrease compared to the same period in 2024.

Its revenue was 195 billion yuan ($27.4 billion), which was only a 3 percent decrease compared to Q3 2024.

The drop in profits and revenue can mostly be attributed to the ongoing growth of competition in the Chinese market. The increased competition in China has pushed companies to turn to overseas markets in response, according to CnEVPost.

BYD is one of those companies, and it is attempting to push sales upward by entering new markets, especially in Europe, where the company sold more than 13,000 units in EU countries in September alone.

This was a 272 percent increase year over year, a major piece of evidence that it has a lot of potential in foreign markets.

The drop in financial figures is likely a short-term issue for BYD, as it has already established itself as a formidable competitor to many companies in many markets. In Q1, it reported an increase in profit by 100 percent compared to the same time span the year prior.

As it works to expand to even more markets in the world, it will continue to build upon its already-solid reputation.

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GM takes latest step to avoid disaster as EV efforts get derailed

There was an even larger step taken this morning, as the Detroit Free Press reported that GM was idling its Factory Zero plant in Michigan until late November, placing about 1,200 workers on indefinite layoff status.

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Credit: GM

General Motors has taken its latest step to avoid financial disaster as its electric vehicle efforts have been widely derailed.

GM’s electric vehicle manufacturing efforts started off hot, and CEO Mary Barra seemed to have a real hold on how the industry and consumers were starting to evolve toward sustainable powertrains. Even former President Joe Biden commended her as being a major force in the global transition to EVs.

However, the company’s plans have not gone as they’ve drawn them up. GM has reported some underwhelming delivery figures in recent quarters, and with the loss of the $7,500 tax credit, the company is planning for what is likely a substantial setback in its entire EV division.

Earlier this month, the company reported it would include a $1.6 billion charge in its quarterly earnings results from EV investments. It was the first true sign that things with GM’s EV projects were going to slow down.

There was an even larger step taken this morning, as the Detroit Free Press reported that GM was idling its Factory Zero plant in Michigan until late November, placing about 1,200 workers on indefinite layoff status.

This is in addition to the 280 employees it has already laid off after production cuts that happened earlier this year at the Detroit-Hamtramck plant.

After November 24, GM will bring back 3,200 people to work until January 5 to operate both shifts. On January 5, GM is expected to keep 1,200 workers on indefinite layoff.

GM is not the only legacy automaker to make a move like this, as Ford has also started to make a move that reflects a cautious tone regarding how far and how committed it can be to its EV efforts.

After the tax credit was lost, it seemed to be a game of who would be able to float their efforts longest without the government’s help. Tesla CEO Elon Musk long said that the loss of these subsidies would help the company and hurt its competitors, and so far, that is what we are seeing.

Elon Musk was right all along about Tesla’s rivals and EV subsidies

However, Tesla still has some things to figure out, including how its delivery numbers will be without the tax credit. Its best quarter came in Q3 as the credit was expiring, but Tesla did roll out some more affordable models after the turn of the quarter.

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Tesla expands Robotaxi geofence, but not the garage

This has broadened its geofence to nearly three times the size of Waymo’s current service area, which is great from a comparative standpoint. However, there seems to be something that also needs to be expanded as the geofence gets larger: the size of the Robotaxi fleet.

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Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer | X

Tesla has expanded its Robotaxi geofence four times, once as recently as this week.

However, the company has seemingly kept its fleet size relatively small compared to the size of the service area, making some people — even pro-Tesla influencers — ask for more transparency and an expansion of the number of vehicles it has operating.

Over the past four months, Tesla has done an excellent job of maintaining growth with its service area in Austin as it continues to roll out the early stages of what is the Robotaxi platform.

The most recent expansion brought its size from 170 square miles (440.298 sq. km) to 243 square miles (629.367 sq. km).

Tesla sends clear message to Waymo with latest Austin Robotaxi move

This has broadened its geofence to nearly three times the size of Waymo’s current service area, which is great from a comparative standpoint. However, there seems to be something that also needs to be expanded as the geofence gets larger: the size of the Robotaxi fleet.

Tesla has never revealed exactly how many Model Y vehicles it is using in Austin for its partially driverless ride-hailing service (We say partial because the Safety Monitor moves to the driver’s seat for freeway routes).

When it first launched Robotaxi, Tesla said it would be a small fleet size, between 10 and 20 vehicles. In late August, after its second expansion of the service area, it then said it “also increased the number of cars available by 50 percent.”

Tesla reveals it has expanded its Robotaxi fleet in Austin

The problem is, nobody knows how many cars were in the fleet to begin with, so there’s no real concrete figure on how many Robotaxis were available.

This has caused some frustration for users, who have talked about the inability to get rides smoothly. As the geofence has gotten larger, there has only been one mentioned increase in the fleet.

Tesla did not reveal any new figures or expansion plans in terms of fleet size in the recent Q3 Earnings Call, but there is still a true frustration among many because the company will not reveal an exact figure.

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