News
SpaceX operational astronaut launch debut back on track after “nail polish” delay
In a new NASA briefing, SpaceX vice president of build and flight reliability Hans Koenigsmann was able to explain in far more detail why a recent last-second Falcon 9 launch abort happened and how it wound up delaying the company’s first operational astronaut launch.
Now scheduled to lift off no earlier than (NET) 7:49 pm EST (00:49 UTC) on Saturday, November 14th, SpaceX’s Crew Dragon Crew-1 mission was originally expected to launch in late September, October 23rd, and October 31st. On October 2nd, however, a new Falcon 9 booster – sibling to Crew-1’s own new booster – automatically aborted its GPS III SV04 satellite launch attempt just two seconds before liftoff. The rare last-second abort was quickly blamed on “unexpected pressure rise in the turbomachinery gas generator” by CEO Elon Musk.
Likely built side-by-side with faulty GPS III SV04 Falcon 9 booster B1062 at SpaceX’s Hawthorne, California factory, Crew-1 Falcon 9 booster B1061 was almost immediately inspected to search for any commonality once the cause of the abort was better understood.
Just one week before the latest briefing, NASA human spaceflight program administrator and former Commercial Crew Program manager Kathy Lueders revealed in a statement on Twitter that SpaceX was still analyzing the cause of the abort but had already determined that at least one Crew-1 booster engine would need to be replaced, as well as one engine on Falcon 9 booster B1063.
Now, during NASA’s October 28th Crew-1 briefing, SpaceX’s Koenigsmann revealed that the company had ultimately decided to replace not one but two of Crew-1 booster B1061’s nine Merlin 1D engines. Thanks to Falcon 9’s namesake nine-engine booster design and SpaceX’s prolific rocket factory, that process was completed extraordinarily quickly, simply requiring the redirection of already qualified Merlin 1D engines from a fairly large pool. Based on Koenigsmann’s phrasing, SpaceX has already installed both replacement engines on the Crew-1 booster.
What, though, caused GPS III SV04’s launch abort and how did that affect Crew-1?
Rocket engine vs. “nail polish”
According to Koenigsmann, in the course of the rapid and complex mechanical and electrical ballet preceding Falcon 9 first stage ignition, the rocket’s autonomous flight computer observed that two of the GPS III SV04 booster’s nine Merlin 1D engines appeared to be running ahead of schedule, so to speak. The computer immediately halted the ignition process to avoid what could have otherwise been a “hard” (i.e. stressful or damaging) start. SpaceX quickly began inspecting the rocket within 24 hours but was unable to detect anything physically or electrically wrong with Falcon 9’s Merlin 1D engines and engine section.
Out of an abundance of caution, SpaceX removed both misbehaving engines and shipped them to its McGregor, Texas development and test facilities where – somewhat miraculously – the same premature startup behavior was replicated on the test stand. After a great deal of increasingly granular inspections, SpaceX finally narrowed the likely cause down to a tiny plumbing line feeding one of the engine’s gas generator relief valves. In a seemingly random subset of relatively new Merlin 1D engines, SpaceX eventually discovered that a supplier-provided relief valve line was sometimes clogged by a protective lacquer Koenigsmann likened to “red nail polish.”
Used to selectively exclude parts of the engine tubing during a surface finishing process known as anodization, the lacquer was either unsuccessfully removed on a random selection of engine parts or was accidentally channeled into a blockage by over-enthusiastic cleaning. Ultimately, for whatever, reason that miniscule blockage was enough to cause affected Merlin 1D engines to consistently attempt to ignite a tiny fraction of a second early.
Crucially, when SpaceX discovered the possible cause and cleaned out the blocked plumbing, each previously affected Merlin 1D engine performed perfectly, all but directly confirming both the cause and the cure for Falcon 9’s October 2nd abort.
Astronauts enter quarantine
In anticipation of SpaceX seemingly simple solution to the gas generator problem, NASA Commercial Crew Program manager Steve Stich revealed that SpaceX’s Crew-1 mission astronauts – Shannon Walker, Victor Glover, and Mike Hopkins, and JAXA (Japanese) astronaut Soichi Noguchi – had begun routine prelaunch quarantine procedures in anticipation of a November 14th launch.
Stich also offered a more specific Crew-1 schedule, beginning with an integrated Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon static fire test NET November 9th and a full dry dress rehearsal on November 11th before the first launch attempt on November 14th. Notably, thanks to coincidental orbital dynamics, a successful launch on November 14th would enable Crew Dragon to raise its orbit and rendezvous with the International Space Station a brisk eight and a half hours after liftoff – three times quicker than the more common 27.5-hour transit.
Stay tuned for updates as the mission’s launch date approaches.
Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) Q1 2025 earnings: What to expect
Tesla stock reached as high as $488.54 per share in 2024, though it is trading at around $240 per share as of writing.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is expected to release its first quarter 2025 results after markets close today, April 22, 2025.
At 4:30 p.m. Central Time / 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time, executives such as CEO Elon Musk will also be holding a Company Update and the Q1 2025 earnings call.
Tesla Q1 Deliveries and Production
Tesla missed estimates in the first quarter, with the company delivering a total of 336,681 vehicles worldwide. A total of 362,615 vehicles were also produced during this period.
While the delivery results of Tesla’s electric vehicle business were subpar in Q1 2025, the company’s energy division exhibited strong performance during the quarter, deploying a total of 10.4 GWh worth of energy storage products.
Earnings Estimates
As noted in a Forbes report, expectations are high that Tesla will report a gain of $0.35/share on $21.85 billion in revenue. Whisper numbers, however, reportedly suggest that the electric vehicle maker will only post a gain of $0.31 per share.
Analysts polled by the FactSet, however, expect Tesla to see an EPS of $0.41 per share on revenues of $21.27 billion, as noted in an Investors’ Business Daily report.
Tesla Stock So Far
Tesla stock reached as high as $488.54 per share in 2024, though it is trading at around $240 per share as of writing. Tesla stock has been naturally volatile, however, so it is prone to notable moves depending on its Q1 earnings.
If the numbers are good, Tesla stock could easily gap up, but if they are disappointing, it would not be surprising if TSLA shares gap down.
FSD, New Vehicle Updates
Tesla is expected to launch a dedicated robotaxi service this June in Austin, Texas. The company has also been hinting at more affordable models that will be launched in the first half of 2025. Expectations are high that CEO Elon Musk will share some updates on these projects, particularly the rollout of Tesla’s FSD Unsupervised system.
Rivian has strengthened its AI strategy by appointing Aidan Gomez, co-founder and CEO of generative AI startup Cohere, to its board. Gomez’s appointment was announced through a regulatory filing. The move underscores Rivian’s ambition to lead in automotive software and AI-driven autonomy.
Gomez is a data scientist and AI expert. He launched Cohere in 2019, focusing on AI foundation models for enterprises like Oracle and Notion. Gomez will be on Rivian’s board until 2026. His appointment expands Rivian’s board and aligns with the company’s $5.8 billion joint venture with Volkswagen Group to develop software. The venture leverages Rivian’s electrical architecture expertise, licensing intellectual property, and may sell tech to other firms in the future.
Gomez’s expertise is a strategic fit, with CEO RJ Scaringe stating the AI expert’s “thinking and expertise will support Rivian as we integrate new, cutting-edge technologies into our products, services, and manufacturing.”
Rivian’s AI efforts include an AI assistant for its EVs, which has been under development since 2023, according to the automaker’s Chief Software Officer Wassym Bensaid.
“The AI work, which is specifically on the orchestration layer or framework for an AI assistant, sits outside the joint venture with VW,” Bensaid told TechCrunch.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas sees Rivian’s value in its AI and autonomy potential, not just its EVs. “We see scope for Rivian to play a more important role in AI-enabled autonomy with potential milestones in 1H25,” Jonas said, highlighting the upcoming period as “consequential to determining Rivian’s place in the autonomous vehicle race.”
Jonas believes Rivian stands out as a non-Tesla, U.S.-based “software-defined” company with a fully integrated, AI-driven autonomous platform fueled by advances in generative AI and large language models.
Gomez’s board role positions Rivian to capitalize on AI innovations, enhancing its software leadership and autonomous vehicle development. As the EV maker navigates its Volkswagen partnership and internal AI projects, Gomez’s expertise could drive breakthroughs, reinforcing Rivian’s dual identity as an EV manufacturer and a tech innovator in a competitive landscape.
News
Tesla Model Y gets five-year, zero-interest financing deal in China
The program was announced by the electric vehicle maker through its official Weibo account.
Tesla has launched a five-year, zero-interest financing deal for the new Model Y in China.
The program was announced by the electric vehicle maker through its official Weibo account.
Model Y Financing Program Details
The new five-year, zero-interest financing deal is available through June 30, and it applies to all Model Y variants, the rear-wheel-drive (RWD) and long-range all-wheel-drive (AWD), which start at 263,500 yuan ($36,300) and 313,500 yuan ($42,950), respectively. Buyers can qualify for the program by paying a down payment of as low as 79,900 yuan ($10,950), with monthly payments starting at 3,060 yuan ($420).
It should be noted that prior to the recently announced program, Tesla China had offered a three-year, zero-interest financing deal for the new Model Y RWD and AWD.
New Model Y Sales So Far
Tesla’s new five-year, zero-interest financing program comes amidst heightened competition in China’s electric vehicle sector. For context, the company sold 74,127 vehicles domestically in March, up 18.8% year-over-year, as noted in a CNEV Post report. From this number, the Model Y accounted for 48,189 deliveries.
During the week of April 14-20, Tesla China also saw 6,800 new vehicle registrations, suggesting that Giga Shanghai is focusing on exports this month.
Other Updates And Incentives
Tesla China also extended an 8,000-yuan insurance subsidy for the Model 3 through April 30. A five-year, zero-interest financing program was launched for the all-electric sedan as well. To qualify, buyers would have to pay a down payment of as low as 79,900 yuan ($10,950), with monthly payments starting at 2,460 yuan ($340).
A new Star Diamond Black paint option for both the Model Y and Model 3 was also announced. Delivery times remain steady as well, with the Model Y RWD seeing a 2-4 week wait time and the Model Y Long Range AWD seeing a 3-5 week wait time. The Model 3 is listed with a 1-3 week wait time for all its variants.
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