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SpaceX, NASA schedule back-to-back astronaut recovery and launch after delays

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Poor winter weather on Florida’s East Coast and across the Atlantic Ocean has forced NASA and SpaceX to flip the nominal sequence of events for the imminent back-to-back launch and recovery of two Crew Dragons.

Contrary to preference, SpaceX and NASA’s four Crew-2 astronauts are now scheduled to undock from the International Space Station (ISS) and return to Earth before their replacements (Crew-3) launch to the station. As a result, there will be no on-orbit handoff, meaning that only one NASA astronaut – Mark Vande Hei – will be left alongside cosmonauts Anton Shkaplerov and Pyotr Dubrov to crew and operate the US segment of the ISS until Crew-3’s arrival.

After several delays from an initial October 30th target, Crew-3 astronauts Raja Chari, Thomas Marshburn, Matthias Maurer, and Kayla Barron are scheduled to ride Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon to orbit no earlier than (NET) 9:03pm EST, Wednesday, November 10th (02:03 UTC 13 Nov) – two days after Crew-2 is expected to splash down.

Crew-3 astronauts Matthias Maurer, Thomas Marshburn, Raja Chari, and Kayla Barron have been (mostly) ready for flight since late October. (SpaceX)

Save for a one-day delay from October 30th to October 31st needed to give SpaceX and NASA time to qualify a fixed plumbing leak for crewed spaceflight, all subsequent delays into November have been caused by poor weather – a rather common late fall and winter occurrence in the Atlantic Ocean and southern US. The weather isn’t entirely to blame, though. Crew Dragon, SpaceX, and NASA are also partly responsible due to the extremely strict and narrow range of weather conditions the spacecraft has been certified to operate in.

Worse, a large portion of Dragon’s weather constraints are for hypothetical abort scenarios rather than the nominal launch – not “is it safe to launch?” but “is it safe to launch if something fails catastrophically and Dragon aborts and has to splash down anywhere in a several-dozen-mile corridor stretching the entire length of the Atlantic?” In the case of Crew-3’s launch, the main condition making that vast abort zone a no-go for launch is surface winds.

While aborting an expensive, time-sensitive rocket launch due to ground winds might bring to mind some kind of storm with vast swells and torrential rain, the reality is that NASA has only rated Crew Dragon to splash down when surface winds are less than 8-11 mph (13-18 km/h). In other words, the conditions causing 10+ days of delays and leading NASA to leave a skeleton crew at the space station’s US segment amounts to a firm breeze. There are likely many reasons (most hopefully good) for that highly conservative limit but ultimately, it means that NASA’s Crew Dragon missions will almost always be at risk of weather delays both going up and coming down.

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Crew-2 astronauts Shane Kimbrough, Megan McArthur, Akihiko Hoshide, and Thomas Pesquet check out their Dragon ahead of one last ride home. (Thomas Pesquet)

As if to emphasize that fact, winds in the Gulf of Mexico, on the opposite side of Florida, also caused NASA to delay SpaceX’s Crew-2 departure and splashdown from November 6th/7th to November 8th, raising the risk of more Crew-3 delays or another complex schedule conflict if conditions force another change. A minor issue with Dragon’s toilet discovered during Inspiration4 and fixed on Crew-3’s ride to space will preclude its use during Crew-2’s 11-hour trip home, but that change should be barely noticeable to professional astronauts that are required to wear diapers as a precaution regardless. Otherwise, throughout the delays, Falcon 9 B1067, Crew-3 Dragon C210, and Crew-2 Dragon C206 have all thankfully remained healthy and ready to go.

Crew-2 is scheduled to undock from the ISS around 2pm EST (17:00 UTC) on November 8th and could splash down as early as 10:33 pm (03:33 UTC) – less than nine hours later.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla Sweden faces new pressure in Sweden as Assa Abloy joins union action

The sympathy strike will block Assa Abloy’s 330 employees across six Swedish facilities from servicing or maintaining locks and gates used at Tesla Sweden’s sites.

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Credit: NicklasNilsso14/X

The labor standoff between Tesla and Sweden’s IF Metall union has widened again, this time pulling in Assa Abloy Industrial, a manufacturer of industrial doors and locks. 

IF Metall announced a new sympathy strike halting all Assa Abloy services for Tesla, set to take effect November 4, according to Dagens Arbete (DA). The move is aimed at further pressuring Tesla into signing a collective agreement after nearly two years of ongoing labor conflict.

New strike targets Tesla’s industrial operations

The sympathy strike will block Assa Abloy’s 330 employees across six Swedish facilities from servicing or maintaining locks and gates used at Tesla Sweden’s sites. IF Metall hopes the measure will disrupt Tesla’s daily operations and highlight the growing solidarity among Swedish companies.

Assa Abloy becomes the latest in a line of firms drawn into the dispute, with the Swedish Mediation Institute now logging fourteen conflict notices since September. The escalation shows that unions and partner industries are aligning to support of IF Metall’s campaign to secure a collective bargaining deal, something Tesla has consistently resisted.

IF Metall says Tesla must understand Sweden’s labor model

IF Metall chair Marie Nilsson recently reiterated her call for Tesla Sweden to reconsider its stance on organized labor, noting that Sweden’s union system differs sharply from the more adversarial model in the United States. 

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“I can certainly understand that Elon Musk and Tesla are skeptical of the trade union movement,” Nilsson said. “They have experience with American unions that operate in a completely different environment and that have to be militant in a different way.”

Nilsson emphasized that Swedish unions function cooperatively and that signing a collective agreement locally does not commit Tesla to similar deals elsewhere. “Let’s give us a chance,” she added. “It is the practical system we have here to regulate the conditions.”

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Elon Musk: Tesla autonomous driving might spread faster than any tech

The CEO noted that “hardware foundations have been laid for such a long time.”

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Credit: Tesla

Elon Musk has shared one of his most optimistic forecasts for Tesla’s self-driving rollout yet. As per the CEO, Tesla’s self-driving system could see the fastest technological adoption in history, thanks to the fleet’s capability to gain autonomous capabilities through a software update.

The CEO shared his forecast in a post on social media platform X.

Tesla’s aims to scale autonomy

Musk’s comment came as a response to industry watcher Sawyer Merritt, who posted a comparison between the geofence of Tesla’s Robotaxi network and Waymo’s service area. As can be seen in the graphic, Tesla’s Austin geofence has gotten noticeably larger compared to Waymo’s service area. 

In his response, Musk stated that “Tesla autonomous driving might spread faster than any technology ever.” He also stated that “hardware foundations have been laid for such a long time,” as a software update could unlock full autonomy “for millions of pre-existing cars in a short period of time.”

Musk’s comment bodes well for Tesla’s Robotaxi ambitions, which seem to be finally in reach with the deployment of Unsupervised FSD in vehicle factories, as well as Austin and the Bay Area. For now, however, Tesla’s Austin Robotaxis and Bay Area ride-hailing vehicles are still operated with a safety monitor in the driver’s seat. 

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Tesla’s latest Austin expansion

Tesla recently expanded its Austin Robotaxi service area this week to 243 square miles, its largest yet and nearly triple the coverage from two months ago. The move outpaces Waymo’s local service footprint, which remains at around 90 square miles.

The expansion marks Tesla’s second major Austin update since August and emphasizes its push to dominate the autonomous ride-hailing landscape. With both Tesla and Waymo racing to prove scale and reliability, Musk’s confidence suggests the real contest may be about who can move fastest once the tech flips on across Tesla’s fleet. Once that happens, Tesla would effectively be able to win the self-driving race. 

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Tesla sends clear message to Waymo with latest Austin Robotaxi move

It is the first expansion Tesla has made in Austin since the one on August 26. The company still operates in the Bay Area of California as well, referring to that program specifically as a “ride-hailing service.”

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has sent a clear message to Waymo with its latest move to its Robotaxi program in Austin, Texas.

Tesla and Waymo are the two true leaders in autonomous ride-hailing to an extent. Tesla has what many believe is a lot of potential due to its prowess with the Supervised Full Self-Driving suite. It is also operating a driverless Robotaxi service in Austin with a “Safety Monitor” that sits in the passenger’s seat.

Tesla explains why Robotaxis now have safety monitors in the driver’s seat

The two companies have been competing heavily in the market since they both launched driverless ride-hailing services in Austin this year: Waymo’s in March and Tesla’s in June.

One of the main drivers in the competition between the two is service area size, or the geofence in which the cars will operate without a driver. In August, the two were tied with a service area of about 90 square miles (233.099 sq. km).

Tesla then expanded to about 170 square miles (440.298 sq. km) on August 26, dwarfing Waymo’s service area and expanding to freeways. Tesla’s freeway operation of the Robotaxi suite requires the Safety Monitor to be in the driver’s seat for safety reasons.

On Tuesday evening, Tesla made another move that sent a clear message to Waymo, as it expanded once again, this time to 243 square miles (629.367 sq. km).

This is according to Robotracker:

It is the first expansion Tesla has made in Austin since the one on August 26. The company still operates in the Bay Area of California as well, referring to that program specifically as a “ride-hailing service.”

Yesterday, it expanded that service to the San Jose Mineta International Airport, something it has been working on for several months.

Waymo has its own set of distinct advantages over Tesla as well, as it operates in more cities and states than the EV maker. Waymo currently has its autonomous vehicle services in Phoenix, Arizona, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, and Atlanta, Georgia.

Tesla plans to have half of the U.S. population with access to the Robotaxi platform by the end of the year.

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