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SpaceX, NASA schedule back-to-back astronaut recovery and launch after delays

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Poor winter weather on Florida’s East Coast and across the Atlantic Ocean has forced NASA and SpaceX to flip the nominal sequence of events for the imminent back-to-back launch and recovery of two Crew Dragons.

Contrary to preference, SpaceX and NASA’s four Crew-2 astronauts are now scheduled to undock from the International Space Station (ISS) and return to Earth before their replacements (Crew-3) launch to the station. As a result, there will be no on-orbit handoff, meaning that only one NASA astronaut – Mark Vande Hei – will be left alongside cosmonauts Anton Shkaplerov and Pyotr Dubrov to crew and operate the US segment of the ISS until Crew-3’s arrival.

After several delays from an initial October 30th target, Crew-3 astronauts Raja Chari, Thomas Marshburn, Matthias Maurer, and Kayla Barron are scheduled to ride Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon to orbit no earlier than (NET) 9:03pm EST, Wednesday, November 10th (02:03 UTC 13 Nov) – two days after Crew-2 is expected to splash down.

Crew-3 astronauts Matthias Maurer, Thomas Marshburn, Raja Chari, and Kayla Barron have been (mostly) ready for flight since late October. (SpaceX)

Save for a one-day delay from October 30th to October 31st needed to give SpaceX and NASA time to qualify a fixed plumbing leak for crewed spaceflight, all subsequent delays into November have been caused by poor weather – a rather common late fall and winter occurrence in the Atlantic Ocean and southern US. The weather isn’t entirely to blame, though. Crew Dragon, SpaceX, and NASA are also partly responsible due to the extremely strict and narrow range of weather conditions the spacecraft has been certified to operate in.

Worse, a large portion of Dragon’s weather constraints are for hypothetical abort scenarios rather than the nominal launch – not “is it safe to launch?” but “is it safe to launch if something fails catastrophically and Dragon aborts and has to splash down anywhere in a several-dozen-mile corridor stretching the entire length of the Atlantic?” In the case of Crew-3’s launch, the main condition making that vast abort zone a no-go for launch is surface winds.

While aborting an expensive, time-sensitive rocket launch due to ground winds might bring to mind some kind of storm with vast swells and torrential rain, the reality is that NASA has only rated Crew Dragon to splash down when surface winds are less than 8-11 mph (13-18 km/h). In other words, the conditions causing 10+ days of delays and leading NASA to leave a skeleton crew at the space station’s US segment amounts to a firm breeze. There are likely many reasons (most hopefully good) for that highly conservative limit but ultimately, it means that NASA’s Crew Dragon missions will almost always be at risk of weather delays both going up and coming down.

Crew-2 astronauts Shane Kimbrough, Megan McArthur, Akihiko Hoshide, and Thomas Pesquet check out their Dragon ahead of one last ride home. (Thomas Pesquet)

As if to emphasize that fact, winds in the Gulf of Mexico, on the opposite side of Florida, also caused NASA to delay SpaceX’s Crew-2 departure and splashdown from November 6th/7th to November 8th, raising the risk of more Crew-3 delays or another complex schedule conflict if conditions force another change. A minor issue with Dragon’s toilet discovered during Inspiration4 and fixed on Crew-3’s ride to space will preclude its use during Crew-2’s 11-hour trip home, but that change should be barely noticeable to professional astronauts that are required to wear diapers as a precaution regardless. Otherwise, throughout the delays, Falcon 9 B1067, Crew-3 Dragon C210, and Crew-2 Dragon C206 have all thankfully remained healthy and ready to go.

Crew-2 is scheduled to undock from the ISS around 2pm EST (17:00 UTC) on November 8th and could splash down as early as 10:33 pm (03:33 UTC) – less than nine hours later.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla uber bull Ron Baron says ‘the time to buy the stock is now’

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Credit: Tesla

In a new interview on Wednesday, Tesla uber bull Ron Baron said that anyone looking to buy the company’s stock should do so as soon as they can.

Baron, founder and CEO of Baron Capital and one of Tesla’s most persistent institutional bulls, used a CNBC Squawk Box appearance on Wednesday to deliver a familiar message with fresh urgency: In his opinion, Tesla stock is a buy:

“The time to buy the stock is now. FSD is catching on, and it’s going to be bigger and bigger. 55% of new buyers are buying it (Teslas) with FSD. It’s going to be everywhere. It’s safer.”

The Baron Capital frontman’s case is built around Full Self-Driving. Tesla reported 1.48 million active FSD subscriptions in the second quarter, up 56 percent year over year, and company officials have said roughly 55 percent of new North American deliveries left with a subscription enabled.

Baron framed that attach rate as proof the product is moving from enthusiast extra to default expectation, and as a reason software, not just vehicle volume, should drive the next phase of value.

His conviction on Tesla shares is not theoretical, as Baron Capital made its first Tesla investment in 2014, after years of meetings that began around the 2010 IPO roadshow. The firm later built a large SpaceX position starting in 2017.

Baron said those Musk-led bets have generated about $30 billion of the $71 billion in profits Baron Capital has produced for clients. He put the firm’s current exposure at roughly $25 billion in SpaceX and $5 billion in Tesla. Personally, he described SpaceX as his largest holding, at about $5 billion, with about $1.5 billion in Tesla and additional Tesla exposure through the firm’s funds.

That concentration is also a statement of loyalty. Asked about talk of a SpaceX-Tesla combination, Baron said he had already walked Elon Musk through arguments for and against a deal, then declined to repeat them on air. His public position was simpler: “Whatever you decide is better is what I’m going to support,” he said to Musk.

Baron also said that he picked up the farewell edition of the Model S after Tesla decided to sunset the vehicle earlier this year, calling it his favorite car he’s ever driven.

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SpaceX’s next Starship launch is about to attempt its biggest leap yet

SpaceX targets September 22 for Starship Flight 14, its first attempt to reach real orbit.

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SpaceX has set September 22 as the target date for Starship’s 14th test flight, and this one carries a different goal than any of the 13 that came before it. Every previous Starship mission has intentionally flown a suborbital arc, reentering the atmosphere within the same hour it launched. Flight 14 is designed to send the craft into a genuine orbit around Earth for the first time.

The launch window opens at 7:15 a.m. Central time at Starbase in South Texas and runs for 75 minutes, pending regulatory approval, according to SpaceX’s mission description published Tuesday. If the flight goes as planned, Starship will circle the planet roughly six times at an altitude near 275 kilometers over about ten hours before a deorbit burn sends it toward a splashdown in the Pacific Ocean west of Chile, a departure from the Indian Ocean recoveries used on the last several flights.

The mission also marks the first attempt to put a working batch of Starlink V3 satellites into actual service. Flight 13 carried 20 of the new satellites in July, but because that mission never left a suborbital trajectory, the payload reentered along with the ship instead of separating into orbit.

SpaceX tells the FCC that Starship Flight 14 is going to orbit

Each V3 satellite is rated for roughly one terabit per second of downlink capacity, so a successful deployment on Flight 14 would be SpaceX’s largest single jump in network bandwidth since Starlink began flying on Falcon 9.

Flight 13 still did the heavier lifting on the technical side. That July mission flew a deliberately more stressful reentry profile to test Starship’s heat shield, and the ship survived its softest splashdown yet, intact enough for drone inspections shortly after landing. Elon Musk said the flight delivered “all the heat shield data we needed and then some,” a result Teslarati covered in detail when he later said SpaceX had solved the vehicle’s biggest reusability challenge. Flight 14 is where SpaceX starts spending that confidence on an actual orbital insertion rather than another controlled fall back to Earth.

One thing Flight 14 will not attempt is a tower catch of the ship. Musk floated the idea right after Flight 13, but walked the timeline back in August, saying a catch attempt was more likely “in a few months.” The Super Heavy booster will still aim for its own recovery, targeting an offshore landing point in the Gulf of America, the same approach used on recent flights.

September 22 is SpaceX’s own target, not a locked date. Starship’s schedule has slipped before over hardware readiness and FAA sign off, and the company has said as much in its own mission notes. But the plan itself represents the clearest marker yet that Starship is moving from a suborbital test program into something meant to carry paying payloads and, eventually, people.

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Elon Musk gives his most telling Tesla-SpaceX merger conversation yet

Elon Musk hinted a Tesla-SpaceX merger could be coming, and Wall Street is taking notice.

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Elon Musk gave his clearest signal yet that Tesla and SpaceX could eventually combine, telling the All-In Summit in Los Angeles that the two companies’ deepening collaboration makes the question worth asking. Sawyer Merritt first surfaced the highlight on X Tuesday.

Asked directly why Tesla and SpaceX remain separate given how closely they already work together, Musk told hosts at the summit: “Great question there. With all this collaboration, on so many levels, who can imagine what action one might take when there’s so much close collaboration in so many areas.” SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell, who joined Musk on stage, added that SpaceX personnel have already moved into xAI to fill leadership and engineering gaps, saying the businesses are integrating “faster than I thought,” though “not fully integrated yet,”

The comments landed on top of merger speculation that has been building on Wall Street for months. JPMorgan has called a tie-up “strategically coherent on paper,” pointing to overlapping ambitions in AI, robotics, energy, transportation and space. Jefferies went further, estimating Musk could retain roughly 55.3 percent voting control in a deal structured without a premium, a scenario that would still leave room for Tesla shareholders to come out ahead. On Kalshi, traders now put the odds of a merger before 2028 at 66 percent.

Tesla’s stake in SpaceX, still under one percent, traces back to its earlier investment in xAI, which converted to SpaceX equity after SpaceX absorbed the AI company. The two are also jointly building Terafab, a chip facility in Austin meant to serve both Tesla’s AI computing needs and SpaceX’s satellite ambitions. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has stood by a 2027 merger timeline for months, and Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest recently floated a similar case, an idea Musk pushed back on directly at the time.

Another Tesla SpaceX merger prediction by ARK Invest has Elon Musk talking

The timing adds another layer. Tesla has scheduled an October 1 unveiling for its next generation Roadster at a venue near SpaceX’s McGregor, Texas test site, using the phrase “Go for launch” in its promotional material. Both stocks dipped roughly 2 percent Monday before recovering slightly in premarket trading Tuesday, with SpaceX shares up about 0.4 percent and Tesla essentially flat.

Musk stopped short of confirming anything is in motion. But unlike his past denials of a corporate restructuring, this response didn’t rule one out, and it came with Shotwell sitting next to him describing an integration that’s already underway.

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