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SpaceX and NASA reaffirm Crew Dragon’s January 2019 launch debut target
After what can only be described as an attempt to sandbag the official launch schedule, NASA administrator James Bridenstine remains alone in his public implication that the date for SpaceX’s first Crew Dragon test flight (DM-1) is so uncertain that “the first half of 2019” was the closest he would get to an estimate.
Such an uncertain estimate would normally be par for the course of NASA’s Commercial Crew Program (CCP), but the fact remains that SpaceX and NASA have recently filed for and received specific launch date allotments for Crew Dragon’s DM-1 launch, dates little more than 4-6 weeks away from today.
At the NAC HEO meeting, Bill Gerstenmaier says the SpaceX Demo-1 mission is planned “towards the end of January.”
— Jeff Foust (@jeff_foust) December 6, 2018
As such, the fact that NASA associate administrator Bill Gerstenmaier – a critical hands-on leader of NASA’s commercial and exploration programs – specifically stated that NASA and SpaceX are targeting DM-1’s launch in January is an unusually stark indication that the two senior NASA officials are not reading from the same script, so to speak. The reasons for the dramatic differences in official statements separated by just one week are hard to parse and would inevitably tread into waters of pure speculation and political machinations.
What is far more important is that Gerstenmaier – backed up by Phil McCalister, NASA Director of Commercial Spaceflight – reaffirmed that NASA is planning for the first orbital, uncrewed launch of SpaceX’s Crew Dragon as early as January 2019, albeit with a slight 10-day slip since the last specific launch date (January 7) was announced.
Speaking before and after Falcon 9’s recent launch of Cargo Dragon (CRS-16) on December 5th, SpaceX VP of Launch and Build Reliability Hans Koenigsmann added yet another voice to the chorus, stating that he and SpaceX were extremely confident that all the physical hardware and software aspects of Crew Dragon would be ready to launch no later than January 7th.
NASA’s Phil McAlister updates the status of SpaceX’s Demo-1 Crew Dragon spacecraft, and says the company aims to have all hardware ready by Dec. 20, then will stand down for the holidays before resuming launch preps in January. pic.twitter.com/XDubh95PEV
— Stephen Clark (@StephenClark1) December 6, 2018
Why so uncertain?
It’s impossible to fully delve into the complex political and bureaucratic intricacies of modern NASA, but the uncertainty within NASA and the deltas between NASA and SpaceX’s official statements can generally be explained by the simple fact that a number of critical final reviews have yet to be completed, reviews that will offer the final determination of when or if Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon are ready to launch.
Depending on the results of those readiness reviews, DM-1 could be given the go-ahead to launch in January or it could be delayed six months because NASA wants SpaceX to change a number of critical spacecraft systems, two extreme sides of what can be best described as a spectrum of possibilities.
In other words, SpaceX’s Koenigsmann and NASA’s Gerstenmaier and McCalister have since implied that they are confident that those final reviews will look favorably upon launch dates that approximate “ASAP”. Bridenstine, while technically the head of NASA, can thus be treated as a dissenting or outlier opinion in this case, presumably offering a worst-case-scenario of when SpaceX might be able to launch DM-1 if final reviews go very badly.
- SpaceX technicians move the integrated DM-1 Crew Dragon during a vacuum chamber test campaign. (SpaceX)
- A SpaceX employee works on the Crew Dragon assigned to DM-2, the first launch with astronauts aboard. (SpaceX)
- SpaceX installed its Crew Access Arm (CAA) in September 2018. (Tom Cross)
Bridenstine and Koenigsmann’s comments are worth looking at in a bit more depth, subtly but unequivocally pointing to the differences in opinion between NASA and SpaceX that clearly still float just beneath the public surface. Asked about Bridenstine’s suggestion that DM-1 could slip quite a bit, Koenigsmann offered a skeptical but levelheaded response:
“What I could see is a [slip of a] couple of days because of [Space Station] traffic. For example, CRS-16 (Cargo Dragon) is on station at the same time, lots of traffic, lots of crew time requirements, but our target is – at this point in time – mid-January, and we’re pushing as hard and [as diligently] as we can for this particular launch.”
In fact, it appears that NASA and SpaceX concluded, around the same point in time, that a new target of January 17th was preferable to account for the logistical scheduling concerns highlighted by Hans in the above quote, allowing 10 extra days for the International Space Station (ISS) crew to complete other spacecraft operations before Crew Dragon’s planned arrival.

Even more intriguingly, local reporter Ken Kremer followed up with a question specifical triggered by Bridenstine’s suggestion (according to USA Today) that “challenges” with Crew Dragon’s landing parachutes were a leading factor in the unlikelihood of a January launch. Hans responded in his usual deadpan style:
“No; we’re working through issues, obviously, I mean every launch has things that we work through to make sure they work fine. [Dragon 2’s parachutes] actually have more redundancy than those on Dragon 1 and they are also [structurally] reinforced on Demo-1, so pretty sure [they’re] gonna be successful.”
Now we wait.
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News
Tesla China extends its 7-year financing promotion once more
The move marks Tesla’s second extension of the program this year.
Tesla has extended its seven-year ultra-low-interest and five-year interest-free financing programs in China once more, pushing the offers through March 31, the end of the first quarter.
The move marks Tesla’s second extension of the program this year. The financing plan was first introduced on January 6 as a strategy aimed at offsetting higher ownership costs ahead of China’s planned 5% NEV purchase tax in 2026.
The original promotion was set to expire at the end of January but was extended to the end of February. This has now been extended again through March.
The repeated extensions reflect growing competitive pressure. Tesla’s 2025 retail sales in China totaled 625,698 units, representing a 4.78% year-on-year decline, as per data compiled by CNEV Post. That being said, this decline is partly caused by the Model Y’s changeover to its new variant in Q1 2025, which resulted in lower sales during the quarter.
In early 2026, the Model Y also lost its position as China’s top-selling EV in January to Xiaomi’s YU7, though this was also a month when Tesla primarily exported vehicles to foreign territories, which pushed local delivery numbers lower.
During January 2026, Tesla China exported 50,644 vehicles, roughly 1.7 times higher than the same month a year ago and more than 15 times higher than December’s level.
Tesla’s financing push has not gone unanswered. BYD this week introduced its own seven-year low-interest plan across its Ocean lineup and Fang Cheng Bao sub-brand, also valid through March 31. Other competitors including NIO, XPeng, Li Auto, and Geely Auto have already rolled out extended-term loan programs as well.
News
Tesla China focuses on local deliveries as Q1 enters final month
Tesla’s estimated delivery times for all variants of the Model 3 and Model Y in China were listed at just one to three weeks.
Tesla’s delivery wait times in China have dropped to some of their shortest levels in years, an apparent hint that Giga Shanghai has largely cleared its order backlog and currently has strong production capacity.
As of February 26, estimated delivery times for all variants of the Model 3 and Model Y in China were listed at just one to three weeks, as per observations of Tesla China’s official webpages by CNEV Post.
That marks a notable shift from the several-week or even two-month waits seen late last year.
The one-to-three-week delivery window suggests that Giga Shanghai is likely focusing on the local market, at least for now as the company enters the final month of the first quarter. Tesla China typically spends the first half of the quarter catering to markets that import vehicles from Giga Shanghai.
Historically, when Tesla’s wait times in China compress to their shortest levels, the company often follows with fresh market actions.
In past cycles, shortened delivery timelines were followed by promotional activity. After delivery windows narrowed to one to three weeks in early 2024, for example, Tesla later introduced an RMB 10,000 instant discount on Model Y final payments that year.
To spur local demand, Tesla recently extended its seven-year ultra-low-interest and five-year interest-free financing offers through March 31. This marks the second extension of the policy this year.
So far, posts from the Tesla community suggest that interest in the company’s vehicles among consumers in China is still strong. Videos of busy delivery centers across China have been shared on social media.
China’s competitive EV landscape has evolved as of late. With regulators discouraging aggressive price wars, automakers are increasingly leaning on financing incentives instead of direct price cuts. Major players including BYD, NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto have introduced similar loan extensions and promotional financing packages.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk’s The Boring Company closes Tunnel Vision Challenge
The Tunnel Vision Challenge invited individuals, companies, and governments to propose a tunnel project up to one mile long.
Elon Musk’s The Boring Company has officially closed submissions for its Tunnel Vision Challenge, confirming that a total of 487 entries were received before the deadline.
In a post on X, the company wrote, “Tunnel Vision Challenge is closed! 487 entries received – TBC team is excited to go through them all!” The company added that “We will select the top ~15 in the next week, and reach out with follow-up questions,” and that an “overall winner will be announced on March 23.”
The Tunnel Vision Challenge invited individuals, companies, and governments to propose a tunnel project up to one mile long with a 12-foot inner diameter. The winning entry will have its tunnel constructed free of charge.
Submissions could range from Loop passenger tunnels to freight, pedestrian, utility, or water tunnels. The only requirement was that the project clearly demonstrate how tunneling would meaningfully improve transportation or infrastructure between two points.
Just days before the deadline, the company provided an interim update noting that 407 entries had already been received. “Update on the Tunnel Vision Challenge – 1 mile of free tunnel! With 3 days left to submit, 407 entries have been received. Great to see enthusiasm for tunnels!” The Boring Company wrote at the time on X. By the close of submissions, the total had grown closer to 500 entries, hinting at strong interest in underground transportation solutions.
Entries are being evaluated on usefulness, stakeholder engagement, and technical, economic, and regulatory feasibility. Applicants were required to quantify projected benefits, such as time saved per rider or cost savings per shipment, and provide maps showing proposed alignments and other details. Submissions that included geotechnical or subsurface data are expected to receive additional consideration.
The Boring Company will fund the tunnel’s construction itself, though related infrastructure costs may be discussed with the winning team. The company also retains discretion to modify or cancel the challenge.


