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SpaceX and NASA reaffirm Crew Dragon’s January 2019 launch debut target
After what can only be described as an attempt to sandbag the official launch schedule, NASA administrator James Bridenstine remains alone in his public implication that the date for SpaceX’s first Crew Dragon test flight (DM-1) is so uncertain that “the first half of 2019” was the closest he would get to an estimate.
Such an uncertain estimate would normally be par for the course of NASA’s Commercial Crew Program (CCP), but the fact remains that SpaceX and NASA have recently filed for and received specific launch date allotments for Crew Dragon’s DM-1 launch, dates little more than 4-6 weeks away from today.
At the NAC HEO meeting, Bill Gerstenmaier says the SpaceX Demo-1 mission is planned “towards the end of January.”
— Jeff Foust (@jeff_foust) December 6, 2018
As such, the fact that NASA associate administrator Bill Gerstenmaier – a critical hands-on leader of NASA’s commercial and exploration programs – specifically stated that NASA and SpaceX are targeting DM-1’s launch in January is an unusually stark indication that the two senior NASA officials are not reading from the same script, so to speak. The reasons for the dramatic differences in official statements separated by just one week are hard to parse and would inevitably tread into waters of pure speculation and political machinations.
What is far more important is that Gerstenmaier – backed up by Phil McCalister, NASA Director of Commercial Spaceflight – reaffirmed that NASA is planning for the first orbital, uncrewed launch of SpaceX’s Crew Dragon as early as January 2019, albeit with a slight 10-day slip since the last specific launch date (January 7) was announced.
Speaking before and after Falcon 9’s recent launch of Cargo Dragon (CRS-16) on December 5th, SpaceX VP of Launch and Build Reliability Hans Koenigsmann added yet another voice to the chorus, stating that he and SpaceX were extremely confident that all the physical hardware and software aspects of Crew Dragon would be ready to launch no later than January 7th.
NASA’s Phil McAlister updates the status of SpaceX’s Demo-1 Crew Dragon spacecraft, and says the company aims to have all hardware ready by Dec. 20, then will stand down for the holidays before resuming launch preps in January. pic.twitter.com/XDubh95PEV
— Stephen Clark (@StephenClark1) December 6, 2018
Why so uncertain?
It’s impossible to fully delve into the complex political and bureaucratic intricacies of modern NASA, but the uncertainty within NASA and the deltas between NASA and SpaceX’s official statements can generally be explained by the simple fact that a number of critical final reviews have yet to be completed, reviews that will offer the final determination of when or if Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon are ready to launch.
Depending on the results of those readiness reviews, DM-1 could be given the go-ahead to launch in January or it could be delayed six months because NASA wants SpaceX to change a number of critical spacecraft systems, two extreme sides of what can be best described as a spectrum of possibilities.
In other words, SpaceX’s Koenigsmann and NASA’s Gerstenmaier and McCalister have since implied that they are confident that those final reviews will look favorably upon launch dates that approximate “ASAP”. Bridenstine, while technically the head of NASA, can thus be treated as a dissenting or outlier opinion in this case, presumably offering a worst-case-scenario of when SpaceX might be able to launch DM-1 if final reviews go very badly.
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- SpaceX technicians move the integrated DM-1 Crew Dragon during a vacuum chamber test campaign. (SpaceX)
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- A SpaceX employee works on the Crew Dragon assigned to DM-2, the first launch with astronauts aboard. (SpaceX)
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- SpaceX installed its Crew Access Arm (CAA) in September 2018. (Tom Cross)
Bridenstine and Koenigsmann’s comments are worth looking at in a bit more depth, subtly but unequivocally pointing to the differences in opinion between NASA and SpaceX that clearly still float just beneath the public surface. Asked about Bridenstine’s suggestion that DM-1 could slip quite a bit, Koenigsmann offered a skeptical but levelheaded response:
“What I could see is a [slip of a] couple of days because of [Space Station] traffic. For example, CRS-16 (Cargo Dragon) is on station at the same time, lots of traffic, lots of crew time requirements, but our target is – at this point in time – mid-January, and we’re pushing as hard and [as diligently] as we can for this particular launch.”
In fact, it appears that NASA and SpaceX concluded, around the same point in time, that a new target of January 17th was preferable to account for the logistical scheduling concerns highlighted by Hans in the above quote, allowing 10 extra days for the International Space Station (ISS) crew to complete other spacecraft operations before Crew Dragon’s planned arrival.
Even more intriguingly, local reporter Ken Kremer followed up with a question specifical triggered by Bridenstine’s suggestion (according to USA Today) that “challenges” with Crew Dragon’s landing parachutes were a leading factor in the unlikelihood of a January launch. Hans responded in his usual deadpan style:
“No; we’re working through issues, obviously, I mean every launch has things that we work through to make sure they work fine. [Dragon 2’s parachutes] actually have more redundancy than those on Dragon 1 and they are also [structurally] reinforced on Demo-1, so pretty sure [they’re] gonna be successful.”
Now we wait.
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Elon Musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk reveals new details about Robotaxi rollout
The first Tesla Robotaxi unit was spotted in Austin earlier today, and CEO Elon Musk is revealing some cool new details.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk has revealed new details about the company’s relatively imminent rollout of the Robotaxi platform as the suspected launch date of June 12 continues to near.
Earlier today, the first video showing the first driverless Tesla Robotaxi in Austin was shared on X, just a day after the City officially listed the company as an autonomous vehicle operator on its website. Tesla is listed as a company in the “Testing” phase.
🚨 BREAKING: The first Tesla Robotaxi has been spotted in Austin!
It’s has the word “Robotaxi” inscribed on the side, and it’s very clear that there is nobody in the driver’s seat.
It does appear that someone is in the passenger’s seat. https://t.co/6BdTfd4B8p pic.twitter.com/dygWCeQ5kZ
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) June 10, 2025
The initial details of the Robotaxi are being revealed by Musk, who is carefully releasing small tidbits that seem to show the capabilities of the entire Tesla fleet, and not necessarily just the vehicles that will be involved in the initial rollout in Austin.
First Tesla driverless robotaxi spotted in the wild in Austin, TX
His first tidbit is one that many Tesla owners and fans will already know: many Teslas are capable of this driveless performance, but Full Self-Driving is not yet refined to the point where the software is quite ready to handle it. Current versions are robust, but not prepared for driverless navigation. The hardware, however, will enable Teslas to be Robotaxis, even if they’re already purchased by owners:
These are unmodified Tesla cars coming straight from the factory, meaning that every Tesla coming out of our factories is capable of unsupervised self-driving! https://t.co/n94ln0Uas6
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 10, 2025
This is one of the biggest advantages Tesla has over other vehicle makers. Simply put, the Over-the-Air software updates that will roll out to FSD users will eventually make their cars into Robotaxis as well.
However, Musk shed some details on the version of FSD that is being run in these new Robotaxis that were spotted. Musk said that the version these Robotaxis are running is a new version, but will soon “merge to main branch.”
There is also an even newer version that has four times the parameters as this newer version that the test-stage Robotaxis are using, but Musk admits that this needs significant refinement before it is released to the public.
It’s a new version of software, but will merge to main branch soon.
We have a more advanced model in alpha stage that has ~4X the params, but still requires a lot of polishing.
That’s probably ready for deploy in a few months.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 10, 2025
As of now, Tesla is simply teasing the actual launch date of the Robotaxi program, but Bloomberg reported earlier this month that it will occur on June 12.
News
First Tesla driverless robotaxi spotted in the wild in Austin, TX
The short clip suggests that Tesla may be ramping up its preparations for its robotaxi rollout in Austin.
A recent video posted on X has provided a first look at Tesla’s driverless robotaxi, which is expected to be deployed in Austin, Texas, this month. The vehicle was a new Tesla Model Y, which was followed by what appeared to be a manned chase car.
The short clip suggests that Tesla may be ramping up its preparations for its robotaxi rollout in Austin.
The First Robotaxi Sighting
It was evident from the short clip that the Tesla robotaxi was operating completely driverless. In the video, which was posted on X by @TerrapinTerpene, the driverless Tesla could be seen confidently making a turn. The vehicle looked and behaved like any other car on the road, save for the fact that there was no one in the driver’s seat.
Interestingly enough, the short video also provided a teaser on where Tesla will place its “robotaxi” logo on its self-driving cars. Based on the video, the robotaxis’ logo will be tastefully placed on the front doors, making the vehicles look sleek and clean.
Initial Rollout Imminent
Recent reports have suggested that Tesla is already starting the testing phase of its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas. Expectations are also high that Tesla’s initial fleet of self-driving vehicles will be utilizing a lot of teleoperation to ensure that they operate as safely as possible.
Updates to Austin’s official website recently have hinted at Tesla’s robotaxi launch. Just this Monday, Tesla was listed as an autonomous vehicle (AV) operator on Austin’s official Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV). Other AV operators listed on the site are Waymo and Zoox, among others.
Elon Musk, for his part, has noted that by the end of June, the public in Austin should be ready to take rides in Tesla robotaxis without an invitation. He also noted in late May that Tesla has been busy testing driverless cars on Austin’s city streets without any incidents.
News
Tesla Model Y proudly takes its place as China’s best-selling SUV in May
The Model Y edged out competitors like the BYD Song Plus.
The Tesla Model Y claimed its position as China’s best-selling SUV in May, with 24,770 units registered, according to insurance data from China EV DataTracker.
The Model Y edged out competitors like the BYD Song Plus, which recorded 24,240 registrations, as well as Geely’s gasoline-powered Xingyue L, which took third place with 21,014 units registered, as noted in Car News China report.
Return To The Top
The Model Y’s return to the top of China’s SUV market follows a second-place finish in April, when it trailed the BYD Song Plus by just 684 units. Tesla China had 19,984 new Model Y registrations in April, while BYD had 20,668 registrations for the Song Plus.
For the first five months of 2025, Tesla sold 126,643 Model Ys in China, outpacing the Song Plus at 110,551 units and BYD’s Song Pro at 80,245 units. This is quite impressive as the new Tesla Model Y is still a premium vehicle that is significantly more expensive than a good number of its competitors.
Year-Over-Year Challenges
Despite its SUV crown, Tesla’s year-over-year performance in China is still seeing headwinds. May sales totaled 38,588 units, a 30% year-over-year decline. From January to May, Tesla delivered 201,926 vehicles in China, a 7.8% drop year-over-year. These drops, however, are notably affected by the company’s changeover to the new Model Y in the first quarter.
Exports from Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory also fell, with 90,949 vehicles being shipped from January to May 2025. This represents a decline of 33.4% year-over-year, though May exports rose 33% to 23,074 units.
China’s electric vehicle market, meanwhile, showed robust growth. Total NEV sales, which includes battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), reached 1,021,000 units in May, up 28% year-over-year. BEV sales alone hit 607,000 units, a 22.4% increase.
Considering the fact that China’s BEV market is extremely competitive, the Tesla Model Y’s rise to the top of the country’s SUV rankings is extremely impressive.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk reveals new details about Robotaxi rollout
First Tesla driverless robotaxi spotted in the wild in Austin, TX
Tesla Model Y proudly takes its place as China’s best-selling SUV in May
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