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SpaceX and NASA reaffirm Crew Dragon’s January 2019 launch debut target

SpaceX technicians move the integrated DM-1 Crew Dragon during a vacuum chamber test campaign. (SpaceX)

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After what can only be described as an attempt to sandbag the official launch schedule, NASA administrator James Bridenstine remains alone in his public implication that the date for SpaceX’s first Crew Dragon test flight (DM-1) is so uncertain that “the first half of 2019” was the closest he would get to an estimate.

Such an uncertain estimate would normally be par for the course of NASA’s Commercial Crew Program (CCP), but the fact remains that SpaceX and NASA have recently filed for and received specific launch date allotments for Crew Dragon’s DM-1 launch, dates little more than 4-6 weeks away from today.

As such, the fact that NASA associate administrator Bill Gerstenmaier – a critical hands-on leader of NASA’s commercial and exploration programs – specifically stated that NASA and SpaceX are targeting DM-1’s launch in January is an unusually stark indication that the two senior NASA officials are not reading from the same script, so to speak. The reasons for the dramatic differences in official statements separated by just one week are hard to parse and would inevitably tread into waters of pure speculation and political machinations.

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What is far more important is that Gerstenmaier – backed up by Phil McCalister, NASA Director of Commercial Spaceflight – reaffirmed that NASA is planning for the first orbital, uncrewed launch of SpaceX’s Crew Dragon as early as January 2019, albeit with a slight 10-day slip since the last specific launch date (January 7) was announced.

Speaking before and after Falcon 9’s recent launch of Cargo Dragon (CRS-16) on December 5th, SpaceX VP of Launch and Build Reliability Hans Koenigsmann added yet another voice to the chorus, stating that he and SpaceX were extremely confident that all the physical hardware and software aspects of Crew Dragon would be ready to launch no later than January 7th.

Why so uncertain?

It’s impossible to fully delve into the complex political and bureaucratic intricacies of modern NASA, but the uncertainty within NASA and the deltas between NASA and SpaceX’s official statements can generally be explained by the simple fact that a number of critical final reviews have yet to be completed, reviews that will offer the final determination of when or if Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon are ready to launch.

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Depending on the results of those readiness reviews, DM-1 could be given the go-ahead to launch in January or it could be delayed six months because NASA wants SpaceX to change a number of critical spacecraft systems, two extreme sides of what can be best described as a spectrum of possibilities.

In other words, SpaceX’s Koenigsmann and NASA’s Gerstenmaier and McCalister have since implied that they are confident that those final reviews will look favorably upon launch dates that approximate “ASAP”. Bridenstine, while technically the head of NASA, can thus be treated as a dissenting or outlier opinion in this case, presumably offering a worst-case-scenario of when SpaceX might be able to launch DM-1 if final reviews go very badly.

 

Bridenstine and Koenigsmann’s comments are worth looking at in a bit more depth, subtly but unequivocally pointing to the differences in opinion between NASA and SpaceX that clearly still float just beneath the public surface. Asked about Bridenstine’s suggestion that DM-1 could slip quite a bit, Koenigsmann offered a skeptical but levelheaded response:

“What I could see is a [slip of a] couple of days because of [Space Station] traffic. For example, CRS-16 (Cargo Dragon) is on station at the same time, lots of traffic, lots of crew time requirements, but our target is – at this point in time – mid-January, and we’re pushing as hard and [as diligently] as we can for this particular launch.”

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In fact, it appears that NASA and SpaceX concluded, around the same point in time, that a new target of January 17th was preferable to account for the logistical scheduling concerns highlighted by Hans in the above quote, allowing 10 extra days for the International Space Station (ISS) crew to complete other spacecraft operations before Crew Dragon’s planned arrival.

Crew Dragon approaches the ISS in this official SpaceX render. (SpaceX)

Even more intriguingly, local reporter Ken Kremer followed up with a question specifical triggered by Bridenstine’s suggestion (according to USA Today) that “challenges” with Crew Dragon’s landing parachutes were a leading factor in the unlikelihood of a January launch. Hans responded in his usual deadpan style:

“No; we’re working through issues, obviously, I mean every launch has things that we work through to make sure they work fine. [Dragon 2’s parachutes] actually have more redundancy than those on Dragon 1 and they are also [structurally] reinforced on Demo-1, so pretty sure [they’re] gonna be successful.”

Now we wait.


For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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SpaceX aces Starship test flight 10 with successful payload deployment

The mission began at 6:30 p.m. local time in Starbase, Texas, when the launch of Starship initiated. After about eight minutes, stage separation was completed, and the Super Heavy Booster headed back down to Earth for a planned splashdown in the Indian Ocean:

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX aced its tenth Starship test flight on Tuesday night after multiple delays pushed the mission back to this evening. Originally scheduled for Sunday night, SpaceX had two delays push the flight back to Tuesday, which ultimately provided ideal conditions for a launch attempt.

The tenth test flight of Starship had several objectives, including a successful splashdown of the booster in the Gulf of America, the deployment of eight Starlink simulation modules from the PEZ dispenser, and a splashdown of the ship in the Indian Ocean.

SpaceX Starship Flight 10: What to expect

SpaceX successfully achieved all three of these objectives, making it one of the most successful test flights in the Starship program. There was no attempt to catch the booster this evening, as the company had been transparent about it ahead of the launch.

The mission began at 6:30 p.m. local time in Starbase, Texas, when the launch of Starship initiated. After about eight minutes, stage separation was completed, and the Super Heavy Booster headed back down to Earth for a planned splashdown in the Indian Ocean:

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Starship was then the main focus of the rest of the broadcast as it completed its ascent burn and coasted through space, providing viewers with spectacular views as the mission headed toward new territory, including the deployment of Starlink simulators. This would be the first time SpaceX would attempt a payload deployment.

The deployment works like a PEZ dispenser, as the simulators were stacked on top of one another and would exit through a small slit one at a time.

This occurred roughly 20 minutes into the mission:

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An hour and six minutes into the flight, Starship reached its final destination, which was the Indian Ocean. A successful splashdown would bring closure to Starship’s tenth test flight, marking the fifth time a test flight in the program’s history did not end with vehicle loss.

It was also the first of four test flights this year that will end with Starship being recovered.

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SpaceX is expected to launch Starship again in approximately eight weeks, pending the collection of data and other key metrics from this flight.

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WATCH: SpaceX attempts Starship’s tenth test flight after two delays

This evening, SpaceX has already stated that conditions appear to be approximately 45 percent favorable for launch. This is ten percent less than last night, when the mission was eventually scrapped around 7 p.m. local time.

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX is set to launch Starship tonight, provided the weather cooperates and everything with the ship goes smoothly.

This is SpaceX’s third attempt to launch Starship for its tenth test flight, with Sunday’s and Monday’s attempts both being scrapped due to a leak and unfavorable weather conditions on the respective days.

This evening, SpaceX has already stated that conditions appear to be approximately 45 percent favorable for launch. This is ten percent less than last night, when the mission was eventually scrapped around 7 p.m. local time.

SpaceX Starship Flight 10: What to expect

Propellant load of the upper stage and Super Heavy booster is already underway, and the launch is expected to occur at 6:30 p.m. in Starbase, Texas.

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You can watch the tenth test flight of Starship below via SpaceX:

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Tesla one-ups Waymo once again with latest Robotaxi expansion in Austin

Tesla’s new Robotaxi geofence measures roughly 171 square miles of Austin’s downtown and suburbs. This is more than double the size of Waymo’s geofence, which measures 90 square miles.

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Credit: @BLKMDL3 | X

Tesla’s expansion of the Robotaxi geofence on Tuesday morning was a one-up on Waymo once again, as the automaker’s service area growth helps eclipse its rival in an intense back-and-forth.

A lot of conversation has been made about Tesla’s rivalry with Waymo in terms of the capabilities of its driverless ride-sharing service in Austin, Texas.

The two companies have sparred with one another, answering each other’s expansion, and continuing to compete, all to the benefit of consumers in the region.

Tesla expanded the geofence of Robotaxi once again this morning, and it is another growth that catapults it past Waymo’s service area in Austin — this time by a considerable margin.

Tesla’s new Robotaxi geofence measures roughly 171 square miles of Austin’s downtown and suburbs. This is more than double the size of Waymo’s geofence, which measures 90 square miles.

On July 14, Tesla officially overtook Waymo in terms of service area in Austin. But just a few days later, Waymo had responded with a bold statement, expanding from 37 square miles to 90 square miles.

Sarfraz Maredia, Global Head of Autonomous Mobility & Delivery at Uber, said the move “unlock[ed] another key milestone in Austin as our operating territory with Waymo expands from 37 to 90 square miles, which means that even more riders can experience Waymo’s fully autonomous vehicles through the Uber app.”

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Tesla did not respond immediately, but it took its time with validation vehicle testing in the Austin suburbs, as we reported yesterday:

Tesla looks to expand Robotaxi geofence once again with testing in new area

Today’s expansion is perhaps the biggest step Tesla has taken in its efforts to continue to grow its Robotaxi platform. This is not only because the company has significantly expanded the size of the geofence, but also because it has ventured into suburban areas and even included Gigafactory Texas in its service area.

Waymo could come up with another timely response as it did when Tesla expanded in late July. We’ll wait to see what it comes up with, as this awesome competition between the two companies is accelerating innovation.

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