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SpaceX and NASA reaffirm Crew Dragon’s January 2019 launch debut target

SpaceX technicians move the integrated DM-1 Crew Dragon during a vacuum chamber test campaign. (SpaceX)

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After what can only be described as an attempt to sandbag the official launch schedule, NASA administrator James Bridenstine remains alone in his public implication that the date for SpaceX’s first Crew Dragon test flight (DM-1) is so uncertain that “the first half of 2019” was the closest he would get to an estimate.

Such an uncertain estimate would normally be par for the course of NASA’s Commercial Crew Program (CCP), but the fact remains that SpaceX and NASA have recently filed for and received specific launch date allotments for Crew Dragon’s DM-1 launch, dates little more than 4-6 weeks away from today.

As such, the fact that NASA associate administrator Bill Gerstenmaier – a critical hands-on leader of NASA’s commercial and exploration programs – specifically stated that NASA and SpaceX are targeting DM-1’s launch in January is an unusually stark indication that the two senior NASA officials are not reading from the same script, so to speak. The reasons for the dramatic differences in official statements separated by just one week are hard to parse and would inevitably tread into waters of pure speculation and political machinations.

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What is far more important is that Gerstenmaier – backed up by Phil McCalister, NASA Director of Commercial Spaceflight – reaffirmed that NASA is planning for the first orbital, uncrewed launch of SpaceX’s Crew Dragon as early as January 2019, albeit with a slight 10-day slip since the last specific launch date (January 7) was announced.

Speaking before and after Falcon 9’s recent launch of Cargo Dragon (CRS-16) on December 5th, SpaceX VP of Launch and Build Reliability Hans Koenigsmann added yet another voice to the chorus, stating that he and SpaceX were extremely confident that all the physical hardware and software aspects of Crew Dragon would be ready to launch no later than January 7th.

Why so uncertain?

It’s impossible to fully delve into the complex political and bureaucratic intricacies of modern NASA, but the uncertainty within NASA and the deltas between NASA and SpaceX’s official statements can generally be explained by the simple fact that a number of critical final reviews have yet to be completed, reviews that will offer the final determination of when or if Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon are ready to launch.

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Depending on the results of those readiness reviews, DM-1 could be given the go-ahead to launch in January or it could be delayed six months because NASA wants SpaceX to change a number of critical spacecraft systems, two extreme sides of what can be best described as a spectrum of possibilities.

In other words, SpaceX’s Koenigsmann and NASA’s Gerstenmaier and McCalister have since implied that they are confident that those final reviews will look favorably upon launch dates that approximate “ASAP”. Bridenstine, while technically the head of NASA, can thus be treated as a dissenting or outlier opinion in this case, presumably offering a worst-case-scenario of when SpaceX might be able to launch DM-1 if final reviews go very badly.

 

Bridenstine and Koenigsmann’s comments are worth looking at in a bit more depth, subtly but unequivocally pointing to the differences in opinion between NASA and SpaceX that clearly still float just beneath the public surface. Asked about Bridenstine’s suggestion that DM-1 could slip quite a bit, Koenigsmann offered a skeptical but levelheaded response:

“What I could see is a [slip of a] couple of days because of [Space Station] traffic. For example, CRS-16 (Cargo Dragon) is on station at the same time, lots of traffic, lots of crew time requirements, but our target is – at this point in time – mid-January, and we’re pushing as hard and [as diligently] as we can for this particular launch.”

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In fact, it appears that NASA and SpaceX concluded, around the same point in time, that a new target of January 17th was preferable to account for the logistical scheduling concerns highlighted by Hans in the above quote, allowing 10 extra days for the International Space Station (ISS) crew to complete other spacecraft operations before Crew Dragon’s planned arrival.

Crew Dragon approaches the ISS in this official SpaceX render. (SpaceX)

Even more intriguingly, local reporter Ken Kremer followed up with a question specifical triggered by Bridenstine’s suggestion (according to USA Today) that “challenges” with Crew Dragon’s landing parachutes were a leading factor in the unlikelihood of a January launch. Hans responded in his usual deadpan style:

“No; we’re working through issues, obviously, I mean every launch has things that we work through to make sure they work fine. [Dragon 2’s parachutes] actually have more redundancy than those on Dragon 1 and they are also [structurally] reinforced on Demo-1, so pretty sure [they’re] gonna be successful.”

Now we wait.


For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk commends Tesla team on successful Robotaxi launch

Tesla CEO Elon Musk commended the company on the successful launch of Robotaxi.

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NORAD and USNORTHCOM Public Affairs, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Tesla CEO Elon Musk commented on the company’s launch of the Robotaxi platform, which officially went live to a small group on Sunday in Austin, Texas.

It is the first time Tesla has offered driverless rides through the ride-hailing platform it has worked to activate for several years, and it was overwhelmingly successful based on early reviews.

The launch was coupled with the release of the first-ever looks at the Tesla Robotaxi app, which does more than allow riders to summon vehicles for transportation. It also allows the rider to adjust climate settings in the car before it arrives for a comfortable ride, and it will sync entertainment and streaming settings to keep occupants entertained.

Tesla Robotaxi riders tout ‘smooth’ experience in first reviews of driverless service launch

The first rides are being performed with a safety monitor in the passenger’s seat. These monitors have no control over the vehicle, and are there just to ensure smooth operation.

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The first reviews called rides “smooth” and “comfortable,” and commended Tesla for its hard work over the past few years to make this happen. Many were impressed with the cars’ ability to keep pedestrians safe, avoid congested parking lots, and the efficiency of the rides, as the time from the ride request to the Robotaxi accepting the ride was extremely fast.

Musk has been at the forefront of this operation for a decade, as Tesla has been working to release a version of the Robotaxi through the development of Full Self-Driving. This has been an effort that included seeking top-tier engineering talent and taking incredible leaps of faith, including switching to a Vision-only approach for Full Self-Driving.

Musk commended the Tesla team for its hard work:

It’s truly an incredible accomplishment, as many considered Robotaxi a “failure” despite it not even being rolled out. In May, we reported on media outlets calling the Robotaxi rollout a total failure, despite Tesla always maintaining the launch would happen in June:

Tesla Robotaxi deemed a total failure by media — even though it hasn’t been released

Hundreds of rides have already been taken, and there have not been many complaints. It’s an incredible jump forward for Tesla.

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Tesla Robotaxi riders tout ‘smooth’ experience in first reviews of driverless service launch

The first reviews of Tesla Robotaxi are in, and those riders are impressed and astounded with the smooth and comfortable nature of the service.

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Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer | X

Tesla Robotaxi riders are touting their awesome experiences in their first rides using the automaker’s new driverless ride-hailing service, which launched to a limited number of people yesterday for the first time.

On Sunday, Tesla officially launched Robotaxi, its driverless ride-hailing service, in downtown Austin. A select group of people were chosen to receive early access to the program, as well as the new Robotaxi app, which is used to request a ride and will sync everything from climate preferences to streaming settings with each pickup.

Tesla officially launches Robotaxi service with no driver

Teslarati gained access to the Early Access riders program and the Robotaxi app, giving us a first-hand look at the experience. We will be in Austin soon to test out the Robotaxi fleet for ourselves.

However, those who were there for the initial rides on Sunday had nothing but great things to say. Hundreds of rides were taken during the first hours of the Robotaxi program, and neither the company nor the riders reported any issues.

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Here’s what people said about their experiences:

  • “Extremely smooth stops,” and great awareness of road conditions, including pedestrians, speed bumps, and busy parking lots, were all handled with ease:

  • Safe navigation around pedestrians who walked just off the sidewalk into the road:

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  • “Just as good as it is during the daytime” at night. There were no changes to report by riders who took rides during the day and evening:

  • Avoided expensive and stressful parking at local tourist hotspots like Terry Black’s Barbeque:

  • “Comfortable and similar to existing Tesla cars with FSD,” intuitive and “surreal” experience:

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  • The app is quicker than other ride-sharing services. When a destination is chosen, Robotaxi is already on the way to your location:

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Tesla Robotaxi rollout proves that Elon Musk still delivers, even if it’s late

Tesla is also still the company that makes the impossible feel late.

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Credit: Tesla

It took a long time, but Tesla has finally successfully rolled out its dedicated Robotaxi service in Austin this weekend. The initial rollout only involved a small fleet of cars operating in a small geofenced area in Texas, but it is still significant. 

It does, if any, prove that Elon Musk is still capable of delivering on his promises, even if they are late. Tesla is also still the company that makes the impossible feel late.

Finally, a Rollout

Elon Musk has been predicting a Robotaxi rollout for years, so much so that even avid Tesla supporters have grown quite wary of his constant predictions. After a while, Elon Musk himself admitted that he has become the boy who cried FSD, though he still maintained that self-driving was really just around the corner.

This past weekend, Musk’s predictions finally came true. Actual paying customers used Tesla’s dedicated Robotaxi service for a small flat fee of $4.20 per ride. Elon Musk seemed quite happy with the Robotaxi’s initial launch, as evidenced by his congratulatory message to the Tesla AI team on X.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1936876178356490546
https://twitter.com/aelluswamy/status/1936865682810946035

No More Tesla Vision Debates

One thing that is evident in Tesla’s initial Robotaxi rollout in Austin was the fact that the debate surrounding Tesla’s vision-only approach is completely gone now. With actual Robotaxis operating around Austin, there are no more questions about whether cars can navigate city streets on their own using only AI and cameras. They can, and safely too, at least based on Tesla’s initial fleet of Robotaxis.

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https://twitter.com/ItsKimJava/status/1936927640268484909
https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1936997202880081950

The Beauty of Normalcy

The Robotaxi rides from Tesla owners who were fortunate enough to experience the first driverless rides from the EV maker’s fleet were quite uneventful. Comments on social media platforms such as X observed that the Robotaxis operated safely and cautiously, and their driving was actually smoother than some human drivers. 

That may not sound very exciting at all, but that’s the beauty of it. Tesla’s Robotaxi service is designed to look and feel natural to people. And so far, it appears that Tesla is accomplishing this with its Robotaxi rollout.

https://twitter.com/DrKnowItAll16/status/1936992009685700663
https://twitter.com/DirtyTesLa/status/1936999390100496443
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