SpaceX
SpaceX shows off Crew Dragon atop Falcon 9 as govt shutdown kills momentum
Late last week, SpaceX published official photos of Crew Dragon’s first trip out to Launch Complex 39A (Pad 39A) atop its specially-certified Falcon 9 Block 5 rocket, showing off what looks to have been a successful integrated fit check and an important precursor to the debut launch of the company’s first human-rated spacecraft.
Despite the obvious readiness of SpaceX’s hardware and facilities for this historic mission, the company has been met with a brick wall that has almost indefinitely killed almost all forward momentum towards Crew Dragon’s first trip to orbit, appearing in the form of elected leaders so inept that they have failed to properly fund the bureaucracies underpinning the vast majority of the federal government for more than three weeks, NASA included.
About a month away from the first orbital test flight of crew Dragon https://t.co/U01Oxu3M7E
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 5, 2019
NASA has been severely impacted by the shutdown since it began on Dec 21 and has been operating at barely 5% capacity since then, just shy of the equivalent of throwing a bucket of wrenches into an intricately complex machine. Put simply, the entire agency is more or less at a standstill, aside from the most basic of operations and the support of spacecraft and facilities that cannot pause for the convenience of childish games of political brinksmanship. Among the parts of the agency harmed are those involved with the late-stage Commercial Crew Program (CCP) certification work and general program support, directly translating into an almost indefinite pause on Crew Dragon’s autonomous launch debut, known as DM-1.
Science-funding agencies that are open: DOE, DOD, and NIH.
The big ones that are affected: NSF, NIST, NOAA, NASA, EPA, USGS, FDA, Smithsonian, USDA@sciencemagazine has a rundown of the impact of the shutdown for agencies with a science focus https://t.co/uAPz7AWoVT
— Maryam Zaringhalam, PhD (@webmz_) January 5, 2019
Despite the ironic fact that their operations would likely be considered critical and thus be free of the brunt of a government shutdown’s impact once SpaceX’s Crew Dragon and Boeing’s Starliner are demonstrated and declared operational, almost all conceivable programmatic aspects of Commercial Crew Program currently fall into non-critical categories as both providers prepare for their first uncrewed demonstration missions to orbit. These autonomous demo missions will be immediately followed by crewed demonstration missions in which real NASA astronauts will fly to the International Space Station before NASA can finally complete the operational certification of Crew Dragon and Starliner.
Simultaneous ironic and gratingly painful, the first operational crewed launches are explicitly dependent on certifications to immediately follow crewed demonstration launches, which themselves are no less dependent upon the receipt of NASA certifications after each spacecraft’s first uncrewed demonstration launch. As such, every delay to CCPs uncrewed demo launches will likely translate into a near 1:1 delay (if not worse) for the operational debut of both spacecraft, already operating dangerously close to the edge of assured access to the ISS thanks to a range of delays caused by technical challenges and NASA sluggishness.
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- An impressive view of Crew Dragon (DM-1), Falcon 9 B1051, and its upper stage. (SpaceX)
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- The integrated DM-1 Crew Dragon ‘stack’ rolled out to Pad 39A for the first time in the first few days of 2019. (SpaceX)
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- Falcon 9 B1051 and Crew Dragon vertical at Pad 39A. (SpaceX)
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- The view of Crew Dragon from SpaceX’s freshly-installed Crew Access Arm at Pad 39A. (SpaceX)
NASA currently relies entirely on launch contracts on Russian space agency Roscosmos’ Soyuz rocket and spacecraft to deliver NASA astronauts to the ISS, and those contracts are set to end in a fairly permanent manner as early as November 2019, although the end of NASA’s Soyuz access could potentially be pushed back as far as Q1 2020. Ultimately, a single month of delays at this phase of SpaceX’s Crew Dragon launch debut preparations could snowball into even worse delays for the crewed DM-2 and PCM-1 (Post-Certification Mission) missions and beyond, all of which are heavily dependent on NASA completing a vast sea of paperwork that would likely be ongoing at this very moment if 95% of the agencies staff wasn’t furloughed.
Thankfully, SpaceX at least was able to still perform a dry Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon rollout at Pad 39A, likely serving as an integrated fit-test for the rocket, spacecraft, and fresh pad infrastructure, which includes a brand-new Crew Access Arm (CAA) installed near the end of 2018. While spectacular and apparently successful, it’s undeniably hard to ignore the marring of the government shutdown and inevitable schedule delays it will cause.
SpaceX and its hardware is clearly ready for business – how much longer will we have to wait for the elected representatives of the US demonstrate a similar interest in doing their jobs?
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Elon Musk
Elon Musk just set a condition that could end Falcon 9 as we know it
Elon Musk says SpaceX will finally retire Falcon 9 once Starship flies reliably every week.
Elon Musk gave the clearest timeline yet for retiring Falcon 9, SpaceX’s workhorse rocket.
The comment came in a reply on X, where Musk wrote that “once Starship is flying reliably several times per week, it makes sense to shift super scarce SpaceX engineering and production resources to Starship to get launch rate to several times per day, which means winding down Falcon.” He was responding to physicist Casey Handmer, who noted that NASA is reportedly uneasy about SpaceX phasing out Falcon after building what Handmer called the most successful launcher ever, with the fleet nearing 1,000 total launches.
Now @SciGuySpace reports NASA is in a tizzy because after running the most successful launcher ever for more than a decade and nearing 1000 launches, @SpaceX is planning to retire Falcon in favor of Starship in a few years.
Sorry, NASA, you’ve had 15 years to burn down the… https://t.co/uCNoMwK0v9
— Casey Handmer (@CJHandmer) August 22, 2026
Falcon 9 is still SpaceX’s busiest vehicle by far. The company is on pace for roughly 140 to 145 Falcon flights this year, following 165 in 2025, president Gwynne Shotwell told Time earlier in 2026. She has already said Falcon flights would “tail off” as Starship comes online, while reports indicate that SpaceX has stopped booking new Falcon 9 launches past 2028 and halted production of some expendable Falcon hardware, according to Bloomberg.
It’s worth noting that Musk’s post is a condition, and not a countdown on when Falcon will retire. Starship has not yet flown weekly, let alone daily. Its most recent flight in July ended with a soft splashdown in the Indian Ocean, a milestone Musk pointed to earlier this month when he said the vehicle’s heat shield problem was effectively solved. SpaceX towed that ship to Christmas Island for inspection, and the next flight, Flight 14, is aimed at putting Starship into orbit for the first time. A tower catch attempt for the upper stage has been pushed back to what Musk has called “a few months” away.
SpaceX and a new Trump order that could rewrite the next decade of launches
The gap between Falcon’s role today and Starship’s promised role tomorrow matters most to NASA. Falcon and its Dragon capsule remain the only way the agency rotates astronauts to and from the International Space Station, and Starship is not certified to carry NASA crews. Musk’s post did not address how that handoff would work if Falcon winds down before a crew-rated Starship variant exists. The timing lines up with Musk’s other recent Starship comments. Two days before the Falcon post, he told a different X user that SpaceX is aiming for more than 30 Starship launches a day by 2030, or roughly 10,000 a year, a figure tied to the Trump administration’s new push for higher national launch cadence. Falcon, which took over a decade to reach its first 100 launches, was never built to approach that kind of volume.
For now, Falcon 9 keeps flying at a near-record pace while Starship works to prove it can do the job Musk has already picked out for it.
Elon Musk put a number on where he thinks SpaceX’s Starship program is headed by 2030, replying on X a day after President Trump signed a memo pushing the country toward 1,000 space launches and reentries a year.
The exchange started when Aaron Burnett, co-founder of propulsion startup Mach 33, posted that “1,000 launches/reentries is the goal,” quoting White House science adviser Michael Kratsios on the newly signed National Space Transportation Policy. Burnett noted that the FAA’s own bull-case forecast reached only 385 annual launches by 2030, while his firm’s conservative model already put SpaceX alone near 940. Musk responded, “We’re aiming to reach 30+ Starship launches/day in 2030, which is ~10k annualized. Still tiny numbers compared to airplane flights!”
We’re aiming to reach 30+ Starship launches/day in 2030, which is ~10k annualized.
Still tiny numbers compared to airplane flights!
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 21, 2026
That figure is specific to Starship, the rocket SpaceX is still developing for orbital and lunar missions, not the Falcon 9 fleet that carries most of the company’s current launch volume. Starship has flown twice this year, a slower pace than the four and five flights SpaceX managed in 2024 and 2025. Getting from two flights a year to 30 a day is the scale of jump the new federal policy is meant to clear regulatory room for.
Trump’s memo, signed Thursday, directs agencies to identify new launch and reentry sites on federal land, including a new reentry site within 90 days, and to speed up the permitting and environmental reviews that have long slowed cadence growth. It also sets a goal of returning American astronauts to the moon by 2028 and placing initial lunar base elements by 2030, tying the launch buildout directly to NASA’s Artemis program.
SpaceX has already been pushing the FAA toward higher numbers on its own. The agency approved up to 44 annual Starship launches from Kennedy Space Center in February, on top of a 2024 review that raised the cap at Starbase in Texas to 25 a year. Those approvals cover a fraction of the 10,000 annual flights Musk is now describing, which shows how far current permitting still sits from the administration’s stated target.
The near-term test of all this is more modest. SpaceX cleared a full-duration, six-engine static fire on its next Starship vehicle this week, the last major hardware checkpoint before Flight 14, which is targeting no earlier than August 28 and is expected to attempt the vehicle’s first full orbital mission. Musk said last week that a tower catch of the upper stage is still probably months away, a reminder that the immediate roadmap remains far more incremental than the daily launch numbers he just posted.
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk announced today that the company will likely attempt to catch the Starship upper stage with its launch tower arms “in a few months.”
In a post on X, Musk wrote, “Looks like we will probably catch the ship with the tower in a few months. If there had been a tower out to sea where we practiced landing the ship, it would have been caught.” He added that the first reflight of a Starship vehicle is expected by the end of 2026 or early 2027, describing it as “a fork in the road of history for consciousness reaching the stars.”
Looks like we will probably catch the ship with the tower in a few months. If there had been a tower out to sea where we practiced landing the ship, it would have been caught.
First reflight of the ship will be either end of this year or early next. That will be a fork in the… https://t.co/O5g9pqrzyo
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 20, 2026
Musk’s prediction comes amid ongoing progress toward full reusability of the Starship system, a two-stage rocket designed for rapid turnaround and dramatically lower launch costs. Catching the upper stage, known simply as “ship,” with the Mechazilla tower’s mechanical arms would mark a major milestone. It would allow both stages to return directly to the launch site for quick refurbishment and reuse, eliminating the need for ocean recovery.
Musk has previously signaled plans for a ship catch. In July, shortly after SpaceX’s wildly successful Starship 13 mission, he stated that the company would attempt to catch the ship with the tower on the next flight unless problems emerged in the mission data review. Earlier comments also outline conditions such as successful soft ocean landings before attempting a land recovery to minimize risk.
SpaceX has solved Starship’s biggest challenge, Elon Musk says
The latest update from Musk adjusts this timeline to a few months, reflecting the iterative nature of the test campaign.
SpaceX has already demonstrated the tower catch technique successfully with the Super Heavy booster on a couple of occasions. The first successful booster catch occurred during Flight 5 in October 2024, when the massive first stage returned to the Starbase pad in Texas and was plucked from the air by the tower arms.
Additional catches followed on later flights, including Flight 7, proving the concept for the booster and building confidence in the system as a whole.
Achieving a similar catch for the upper stage would represent a significant step forward. The ship returns from much higher speeds and greater heat loads after orbital or near-orbital flight. Success would advance SpaceX’s goal of full and rapid reusability, potentially reducing the cost of access to orbit by a factor of 100 or more and supporting ambitions for frequent satellite deployments, lunar missions, and eventual Mars flights.
Musk has long emphasized that true reusability, refueling rather than discarding hardware, is essential for making humanity a multi-planetary species.
As SpaceX continues refining Starship through successive test flights, the coming months will test whether the ambitious catch timeline can be met. The combination of prior booster successes and improving ship landing precision suggests the company is steadily closing in on this historic capability.
Elon Musk just set a condition that could end Falcon 9 as we know it
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