SpaceX
SpaceX given the go-ahead for Crew Dragon’s first journey into Earth orbit
NASA and SpaceX officials announced on Friday that the company is ready to conduct the first orbital launch of Crew Dragon as early as March 2nd, a demonstration that will directly precede the first crewed launch on a US rocket in more eight years.
Shortly after the news broke, NASA hosted what can only be described as an effusive press conference in which typically reserved officials like Bill Gerstenmaier and Kathy Lueders discussed the Commercial Crew Program milestone. Above all else, they reported no glaring concerns and rather unequivocally echoed the affirmation that SpaceX, NASA, Falcon 9, and Crew Dragon are all ready and eager to get to orbit. SpaceX now aims to roll the spacecraft and rocket out to the launch pad – Kennedy Space Center’s Pad 39A – on Thursday, February 28th, roughly 48 hours before T-0.
The Demo-1 Flight Readiness Review has concluded. The Board set March 2 at 2:48 a.m. EST as the official launch date for @SpaceX's flight to @Space_Station. #LaunchAmerica https://t.co/2DIJ99guG2 pic.twitter.com/86lV29gVNS
— NASA Commercial Crew (@Commercial_Crew) February 22, 2019
Relative to any number of recent NASA press conferences, the mood in the conference hall following the joint NASA-SpaceX Flight Readiness Review (FRR) was one of obvious relief and elation, marked particularly by heaps of praise and rare personal segues from Mr. Gerstenmaier (associate NASA administrator of Human Exploration and Operations) and Ms. Lueders, NASA’s Commercial Crew Program manager.
“We’re go for launch, we’re go for docking, and we’ll work through [one minor ISS partner concern] next week. But again, just a phenomenal review today … It’s great being back here again [and] starting to get that feeling of launching again and getting ready to go fly.” – Bill Gerstenmaier, NASA HEOMD, 02/22/19
“Right now, [we] do not have any open, joint risks [present on] this mission. It’s been part of our FRR process, and it was the reason why I could tell Mr. Gerstenmaier … that we [are] ready to go fly.” – Kathy Lueders, NASA CCP, 02/22/19
SpaceX Vice President of Build and Flight Reliability Hans Koenigsmann was equally enthusiastic about the completed review, describing his firm belief that – regardless of any delays it may have caused – the Crew Dragon spacecraft and its Falcon 9 rocket would ultimately be the best they could be as a result of the constant back-and-forth between NASA and SpaceX engineers and analysts.
The main mission objectives for DM-1: pic.twitter.com/i5rCKSQEDP
— SpaceXUpdates (@SpaceXUpdates) February 22, 2019
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Aside from the encouraging FRR and follow-up press conference, SpaceX and NASA are reportedly planning on making the hosted webcast of Crew Dragon’s inaugural launch something fairly spectacular. While no specifics were given, this would come as no surprise knowing SpaceX’s past history of exceptional launch webcasts combined with CEO Elon Musk’s equal affinity to spectacular events. According to Koenigsmann, Crew Dragon will be outfitted with a mannequin (effectively an aerospace-grade crash test dummy) dressed in one of SpaceX’s in-house spacesuits, a globally-recognizable icon thanks to the widespread popularity of Falcon Heavy’s launch debut and special payload.
“The only work between now and launch is what we would consider standard work and [the] standard close-out of activities moving forward. So that shows you that we’re fully ready to go do this DM-1 flight next Saturday.” – Bill Gerstenmaier, NASA HEOMD, 02/22/19
The spacecraft will also apparently be nearly identical to DM-2’s Crew Dragon, the first vehicle that will fly with astronauts onboard. As such, it will presumably be outfitted with everything a crew of astronauts would need, including seats, a functioning control panel/display, lighting, and the general fit and finish of an interior ready to support a human presence for multiple days straight. Live camera views of both Starmannequin and out of Crew Dragon’s windows will thus be par for the course, among many other unique perspectives. SpaceX will also offer a rare hosted webcast for Crew Dragon’s arrival and docking at the International Space Station, scheduled roughly 24 hours after launch, an event that could potentially include exceptionally rare feeds from Dragon’s own onboard cameras.
Regardless, this is an event you do not want to miss. If all goes well during the Feb. 27 launch readiness review (LRR) and Falcon 9’s subsequent roll-out to Pad 39A, SpaceX will attempt its first Crew Dragon launch at 2:49 am EST (07:49 UTC) March 2nd.
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Elon Musk has declared that SpaceX has effectively solved one of Starship’s most persistent engineering challenges: the reliability of its heat shield tiles.
During the company’s first-ever Earnings Call, the SpaceX CEO stated:
“I don’t want to jinx it or anything, but I think I would call the heat shield problem solved at this point. All indications from data and visual inspection is we have solved it. That doesn’t mean we won’t make improvements, but we do not see any technical obstacles to achieving rapid reusability at this point.”
Starship’s heat shield consists of roughly 18,000 hexagonal ceramic tiles covering the windward side of the upper stage. These tiles form the thermal protection system that shields the vehicle’s stainless-steel structure from the extreme heat of atmospheric reentry.
Elon says he believes the heat shield problem with Starship is currently solved.
He called it “arguably the single biggest problem” pic.twitter.com/eEE9vM5zlz
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) August 4, 2026
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During descent, atmospheric friction generates temperatures exceeding several thousand degrees Celsius and creates plasma flows capable of melting unprotected metal. The tiles absorb, radiate, and insulate against this energy, allowing the vehicle to survive and potentially fly again. Without a durable heat shield, full and rapid reusability, the cornerstone of Starship’s design for frequent launches, satellite deployments, and deep-space missions, would remain impossible.
The tiles have long been a source of difficulty. On earlier test flights, a significant number of tiles detached during ascent due to vibration, aerodynamic loads, and imperfect attachment methods using pins and adhesives. Gaps between tiles allowed hot plasma to infiltrate, causing secondary damage and hot spots on the underlying structure.
These issues echoed challenges faced by NASA’s Space Shuttle, whose ceramic tiles required extensive, labor-intensive inspections and replacements between missions, preventing rapid turnaround. SpaceX has iteratively improved materials, standardized tile shapes, refined attachment techniques, added secondary ablative layers, and tested sealing methods such as “crunch wrap” felt to close gaps.
Progress was visible across Flights 10–12, with steadily better tile retention, yet questions remained about whether the system could support the minimal-refurbishment goal of rapid reuse.
Flight 13 on July 24 provided the decisive evidence. Ship 40 flew a deliberately more demanding profile with higher dynamic pressure to stress the heat shield beyond typical operational loads. It successfully deployed 20 operational Starlink V3 satellites, the first such payload on a Starship mission, performed an in-space Raptor engine relight, and executed a controlled reentry.
Elon Musk sheds two new bits of detail on Starship after 13th test launch
Cameras on six of the satellites and onboard sensors captured extensive imagery and data of the shield throughout the flight. The ship then achieved its softest splashdown to date in the Indian Ocean, remaining intact and floating rather than breaking apart or exploding as on prior missions. This allowed drone inspections and continuous telemetry of the heat shield in near-real time.
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Post-flight analysis showed the majority of tiles remaining attached with only minor damage and limited plasma streaking at seams. Musk noted that the mission delivered “all the heat shield data we needed and then some.” Combined with visual inspections, these results underpinned his subsequent assessment that the core technical barriers to rapid reusability have been cleared. While refinements will continue, Flight 13 marked a pivotal step toward Starship’s operational future.
SpaceX COO Gwynne Shotwell outlined ambitious plans for Starlink Mobile during the company’s August 4 Earnings call, signaling a direct challenge to U.S. wireless giants like AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon.
Shotwell noted that the three companies generate roughly $600 billion in combined annual revenue. “I anticipate us to be able to acquire quite a few of their customers because I think our service will be better,” she said. “We will eliminate dead zones leveraging the satellites in orbit. It will be better during any natural disaster… I’m quite excited about Starlink Mobile.”
SpaceX President & COO Gwynne Shotwell on @Starlink Mobile and its impact on Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile:
“Roughly, between them, $600 billion a year. I anticipate us to be able to acquire quite a few of their customers. Our service will be better. We will eliminate dead zones… pic.twitter.com/UYZUkrGc0L
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) August 4, 2026
SpaceX intends to combine its satellite constellation with terrestrial infrastructure. The company has acquired about 65 MHz of spectrum from EchoStar and plans to deploy next-generation Starlink Mobile satellites in 2027, with upgraded service targeted for the end of that year.
Shotwell described the enhanced network, leveraging more satellites and spectrum, as potentially “100 times better” than the current direct-to-cell offering, which already supports basic texting and app-based voice/video in coverage gaps through partnerships. She also indicated plans for low-cost cellular base stations that could integrate with existing Starlink dishes, creating a hybrid system for broader capacity in urban, suburban, and rural areas.
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For the general public, Starlink Mobile promises significant advantages. Satellite connectivity can fill gaps where traditional cell towers fail, delivering service in remote locations, mountains, or during outages caused by storms, wildfires, or infrastructure damage—conditions in which ground networks often collapse.
Users could enjoy more consistent coverage without relying solely on dense tower builds, potentially at competitive prices as SpaceX scales. The hybrid approach aims to support full mobile services, including higher-speed data, while working with unmodified smartphones over time.
These developments revive long-standing but unfounded rumors of a Musk-developed “Tesla phone.” Speculative claims of a “Pi Phone” or similar device with built-in Starlink connectivity have circulated for years on social media, often featuring fabricated images and details. Elon Musk has repeatedly denied any such plans, stating Tesla has no intention of entering the smartphone market unless forced by extreme circumstances with app stores.
No official product, filings, or development announcements have ever materialized; the rumors remain hoaxes.
The announcement quickly pressured telecom stocks. Shares of AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile fell between roughly 2 and 4 percent in after-hours and premarket trading as investors weighed the competitive threat from a hybrid satellite-terrestrial network.
While execution challenges remain—spectrum deployment, infrastructure rollout, and regulatory hurdles—Shotwell’s remarks mark SpaceX’s clearest signal yet of entering the consumer mobile market as a full competitor.
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Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya has cautioned investors shorting SpaceX shares, drawing a direct parallel to the intense short-selling pressure Tesla faced in its early public years.
Responding to reports of elevated short interest in the newly public rocket, satellite, and AI company, Palihapitiya noted that similar dynamics played out with Tesla, where aggressive short sellers ultimately “went broke.”
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) went public on June 12, 2026, in the largest IPO on record, pricing at $135 per share. Shares quickly surged to an all-time high of $225.64 just days later, briefly implying a valuation exceeding $2 trillion. The stock has since retreated sharply amid valuation concerns, lockup expiration fears, and broader market dynamics.
By early August, it traded near $108–$125, representing a roughly 50 percent decline from the peak and bringing the market capitalization closer to the $1.5–1.7 trillion range. On August 4, shares closed up more than 9 percent at $125.33 ahead of earnings before facing pressure in after-hours and premarket trading.
Short interest has climbed dramatically. According to S3 Partners data widely cited in market reports, short positions reached approximately 219.3 million shares by late July, about 34 percent of the limited public float of roughly 640 million shares, and represented a notional value of around $24.6 billion.
Utilization of shares available to borrow hit 95 percent, with borrow fees rising. This level of shorting exceeded the dollar value of short bets against Tesla at the time and built rapidly ahead of two catalysts: the company’s first post-IPO earnings and an August 6 lockup expiration that could free up to 911.5 million additional shares.
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CEO Elon Musk has issued warnings of his own. In mid-July, as short interest approached one-third of the float, he posted that “the survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low,” reiterating his view that the company could ultimately be worth more than Earth if it achieves its goals.
On August 4, just before earnings, Musk responded to the latest short-interest data by saying, “I try to warn them, but they just double down.”
SpaceX delivered its first quarterly results as a public company after the close on August 4. Second-quarter revenue rose 92 percent year-over-year to $7.8 billion, beating consensus estimates near $6.8–6.9 billion.
The net loss narrowed to $541 million, or 9 cents per share, better than the roughly 23–24 cent loss expected. Starlink/connectivity contributed about $4.3 billion (up 66 percent), while the AI business generated $2.6 billion (up roughly 250 percent). Capital expenditures were heavy at $18.4 billion, largely tied to AI infrastructure. Management projected a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by year-end 2026 and outlined a path toward $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030.
The combination of Chamath’s historical reminder, Musk’s repeated alerts, and the company’s ambitious growth targets underscores the high-stakes debate surrounding SPCX. Short sellers are positioned for near-term supply pressure from the lockup, while long-term bulls point to Starlink scale, Starship progress, and AI compute expansion as reasons the bears may ultimately face the same fate as many early Tesla skeptics.
SpaceX has solved Starship’s biggest challenge, Elon Musk says
SpaceX is coming for wireless giants with Starlink Mobile
