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SpaceX given the go-ahead for Crew Dragon’s first journey into Earth orbit

An official SpaceX render shows Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon lifting off from Pad 39A. (SpaceX)

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NASA and SpaceX officials announced on Friday that the company is ready to conduct the first orbital launch of Crew Dragon as early as March 2nd, a demonstration that will directly precede the first crewed launch on a US rocket in more eight years.

Shortly after the news broke, NASA hosted what can only be described as an effusive press conference in which typically reserved officials like Bill Gerstenmaier and Kathy Lueders discussed the Commercial Crew Program milestone. Above all else, they reported no glaring concerns and rather unequivocally echoed the affirmation that SpaceX, NASA, Falcon 9, and Crew Dragon are all ready and eager to get to orbit. SpaceX now aims to roll the spacecraft and rocket out to the launch pad – Kennedy Space Center’s Pad 39A – on Thursday, February 28th, roughly 48 hours before T-0.

Relative to any number of recent NASA press conferences, the mood in the conference hall following the joint NASA-SpaceX Flight Readiness Review (FRR) was one of obvious relief and elation, marked particularly by heaps of praise and rare personal segues from Mr. Gerstenmaier (associate NASA administrator of Human Exploration and Operations) and Ms. Lueders, NASA’s Commercial Crew Program manager.

“We’re go for launch, we’re go for docking, and we’ll work through [one minor ISS partner concern] next week. But again, just a phenomenal review today … It’s great being back here again [and] starting to get that feeling of launching again and getting ready to go fly.” – Bill Gerstenmaier, NASA HEOMD, 02/22/19

Crew Dragon and its crew-rated Falcon 9 went vertical at a launch pad (Pad 39A) for the first time ever on January 4th. (SpaceX)

“Right now, [we] do not have any open, joint risks [present on] this mission. It’s been part of our FRR process, and it was the reason why I could tell Mr. Gerstenmaier … that we [are] ready to go fly.” – Kathy Lueders, NASA CCP, 02/22/19

SpaceX Vice President of Build and Flight Reliability Hans Koenigsmann was equally enthusiastic about the completed review, describing his firm belief that – regardless of any delays it may have caused – the Crew Dragon spacecraft and its Falcon 9 rocket would ultimately be the best they could be as a result of the constant back-and-forth between NASA and SpaceX engineers and analysts.

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Aside from the encouraging FRR and follow-up press conference, SpaceX and NASA are reportedly planning on making the hosted webcast of Crew Dragon’s inaugural launch something fairly spectacular. While no specifics were given, this would come as no surprise knowing SpaceX’s past history of exceptional launch webcasts combined with CEO Elon Musk’s equal affinity to spectacular events. According to Koenigsmann, Crew Dragon will be outfitted with a mannequin (effectively an aerospace-grade crash test dummy) dressed in one of SpaceX’s in-house spacesuits, a globally-recognizable icon thanks to the widespread popularity of Falcon Heavy’s launch debut and special payload.

“The only work between now and launch is what we would consider standard work and [the] standard close-out of activities moving forward. So that shows you that we’re fully ready to go do this DM-1 flight next Saturday.” – Bill Gerstenmaier, NASA HEOMD, 02/22/19

The spacecraft will also apparently be nearly identical to DM-2’s Crew Dragon, the first vehicle that will fly with astronauts onboard. As such, it will presumably be outfitted with everything a crew of astronauts would need, including seats, a functioning control panel/display, lighting, and the general fit and finish of an interior ready to support a human presence for multiple days straight. Live camera views of both Starmannequin and out of Crew Dragon’s windows will thus be par for the course, among many other unique perspectives. SpaceX will also offer a rare hosted webcast for Crew Dragon’s arrival and docking at the International Space Station, scheduled roughly 24 hours after launch, an event that could potentially include exceptionally rare feeds from Dragon’s own onboard cameras.

Regardless, this is an event you do not want to miss. If all goes well during the Feb. 27 launch readiness review (LRR) and Falcon 9’s subsequent roll-out to Pad 39A, SpaceX will attempt its first Crew Dragon launch at 2:49 am EST (07:49 UTC) March 2nd.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk will give ‘every kid in America’ a SpaceX share in 2027

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Credit: Grok Imagine

Elon Musk said he is planning to give “every one of his SpaceX shares to every kid in America” in 2027, stating that “this will be the first of many.”

SpaceX went public earlier this year, and its stock price has been relatively stable since leveling off shortly after its IPO. Based on its current price, it’s a gift of just over $10 billion to children across the United States.

It appears to be closely related to President Donald Trump’s bank accounts for children, which were set up earlier this year as Trump Accounts.

Just hours earlier, Anthropic had announced the establishment of its Anthropic Public Benefit Fund, “a new wholly-owned entity dedicated entirely to public benefit.” Musk responded by stating he recommended “giving the shares directly to the public,” and that he would be doing it that way.

Just a little bit later, Musk said children across the U.S. would be getting a share from him:

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There are roughly 70 million children, meaning someone under the age of 18, in the United States, according to the Federal Interagency Forum on Child and Family Statistics. Musk’s ownership of SpaceX stock shows he has around 849 million Class A shares of SpaceX stock, according to filings with the SEC.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX’s biggest earnings test yet lands Tuesday, and Tesla shareholders should be watching

SpaceX reports earnings Tuesday as Wall Street watches AI spending, Starlink growth and Tesla merger

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SpaceX reports third quarter results after the market closes Tuesday, with a webcast at 4:30 p.m. ET streamed on X, and Tesla follows a day later. Bloomberg consensus, cited by Pepperstone, calls for revenue of $12.89 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $6.62 billion and adjusted EPS near $0.15. That would be about 65% growth from the second quarter and SpaceX’s first profitable quarter since its IPO. Analysts expect roughly $6.4 billion from AI and $4.9 billion from Starlink, which is projected to reach 14.3 million consumer subscribers. Capital spending is forecast at $19.6 billion, leaving free cash flow near negative $11.6 billion.

The numbers matter because SpaceX has spent months trying to win over a skeptical market. It priced its record IPO at $135, spiked to $225.64, then sank near $105 in early August. Friday’s close of $146.03 sits about 28% below the June high. The Q2 report beat on revenue at $7.8 billion and put Starlink at 12 million subscribers, but $18.4 billion of capex hurt the stock. Since then SpaceX reached orbit on Starship Flight 14 with 26 Starlink V3 satellites, agreed to buy 800 MHz spectrum for about $8 billion as part of its Starlink Mobile push, and signed a fourth compute hosting deal in four months worth roughly $13 billion a year from December. Management is targeting more than 2 gigawatts of compute by year end and a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate. Evercore ISI, which raised its target to $275, said the quarter may be judged more on those targets than the reported figures

All of this sits under the Tesla merger question. Barclays analyst Dan Levy expects an all stock deal in which SpaceX buys Tesla at a premium, using reference values of $2.1 trillion and $1.5 trillion, and said an announcement would need to come by late October or early November to be voted on at Tesla’s December 6 annual meeting. Barclays estimates Musk would hold about 37% of the combined company and 56% of the votes. Musk said in July that combining companies cannot be discussed on an earnings call, but an investor question asking when SpaceX will merge with Tesla is sitting on SpaceX’s Q&A platform, and Teslarati has tracked how the Roadster demo revived the talk.

If a deal happens, Tuesday’s result would effectively set the price Tesla holders would receive. Their shares would convert into SpaceX stock, along with exposure to a company with a heavy investment on AI, while Tesla itself expects 2026 capex above $25 billion. A strong quarter and calmer spending would make that exchange easier to sell. Another round of heavy capex and a falling stock would make it harder.

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News

SpaceX’s Gwynne Shotwell just made a quiet gesture toward Tesla

SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell quietly followed Tesla on X, and merger watchers noticed right away.

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SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell has started following Tesla’s official account on X, a small change that landed in the middle of a very loud merger conversation. Whole Mars Catalog joked about it on Sunday.

A follow is not an announcement, and neither company has said anything about a deal. What gives the moment weight is the timing. Barclays analyst Dan Levy has told clients that an agreement could come before Tesla’s annual meeting, which must be held by December 6, with SpaceX as the buyer in an all stock deal, as we reported after the Roadster unveiling. Wedbush’s Dan Ives has stuck with a 2027 timeline.

Shotwell is the executive most worth watching if the two companies do move closer. When Musk was asked at the All In Summit why Tesla and SpaceX remain separate, Shotwell sat next to him and said SpaceX personnel had already moved into xAI to fill leadership and engineering gaps. The businesses were integrating “faster than I thought,” she said, though “not fully integrated yet.” Her responsibilities have also grown since SpaceX absorbed xAI, and she now oversees operations that include Grok and the company’s AI compute buildout.

The financial links are already there. Tesla’s $2 billion xAI investment turned into a stake of less than one percent in SpaceX, the two share the Terafab chip project in Austin, and Musk exercised his 2018 Tesla options a week after SpaceX began trading, a sequence analysts flagged as giving SpaceX public shares to use in a deal. Musk holds about 20 percent of Tesla and controls 85.1 percent of SpaceX’s voting power, according to our earlier breakdown.

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The next test is close at hand. SpaceX reports its second earnings as a public company on Tuesday after the close, and Tesla follows on Wednesday. Musk told analysts in July that “we can’t talk about combining companies and that kind of thing on an earnings call,” so a direct answer is unlikely from either stage. Tesla shareholders can still submit and vote on questions through the Say portal until 4 p.m. EDT on Monday, and the merger is a recurring theme in the queue.

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