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SpaceX’s 2018 Crew Dragon launch debut imminent as spacecraft hardware comes together
SpaceX’s first spaceworthy Crew Dragon spacecraft officially has a confident launch target in hand as a flood of activity has begun to complete, ship, test, and deliver multiple critical components ranging from the Dragon capsule itself to the Falcon 9 Block 5 first and second stages for that capsule’s November or December launch debut.
As of today, SpaceX has between three and four months to finish up a significant – but by no means impossible – amount of work, ranging from actual hardware completion, integration, and preflight checkouts and testing to a veritable flood of paperwork required by NASA before any Commercial Crew launch can proceed.
Watch live as @NASA announces the astronauts assigned to fly aboard Crew Dragon and launch from American soil for the first time since the final Space Shuttle mission in 2011 → https://t.co/rdhLIxFGwa pic.twitter.com/Y640lpu13G
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) August 3, 2018
Paper beats rock(et)
In fact, given comments from SpaceX’s President and COO Gwynne Shotwell and CEO Elon Musk, the executives appeared to be very confident that the hardware for the first uncrewed demo mission (DM-1) and second crewed test flight (DM-2) would be ready for launch. These comments most likely group software under that hardware umbrella, meaning that Shotwell and Musk seem to be very subtly commenting on the immense bureaucratic workload required from SpaceX before NASA will permit them to launch.
Decades of experience as a military-industrial complex stalwart has readily prepared Boeing to deal with those vast ‘certification’ workloads, but that certainly doesn’t mean that NASA couldn’t find a more pragmatic and less oppressive balance between carelessness and a downright obsessive compulsion to document every molecule of their commercial providers’ hardware, software, and wetware (employees, management, organizational structure).
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- The first spaceworthy Crew Dragon capsule is already in Florida, preparing for its November 2018 launch debut. The same capsule will be refurbished and reflown as few as three months after recovery. (SpaceX)
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- Crew Dragon approaches the International Space Station in this render. (SpaceX)
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- Crew Dragon separates from its trunk segment. (SpaceX)
Falcon 9 preps for Crew Dragon
Despite the often-onerous bureaucratic demands of NASA’s Commercial Crew Program office, SpaceX is moving rapidly ahead with a range of hardware, all critical for the Crew Dragon’s November/December launch debut. With the capsule itself already in Florida and the DM-1 Dragon’s trunk nearing shipment from Hawthorne to Cape Canaveral (currently NET September), the next and perhaps most important piece is Falcon 9 itself.
Confirmed earlier this year in a quarterly NASA Commercial Crew update, SpaceX assigned Falcon 9 Booster 1051 to Crew Dragon’s debut launch. That rocket booster and its complementary upper stage are already at SpaceX’s McGregor, TX rocket testing facility undergoing a number of acceptance tests and checkouts as of today, confirming a number of critical facts. Most importantly, the presence of integrated the B1051 booster in Texas appears to imply that SpaceX has successfully fixed slight design flaws in their Merlin 1D engines and composite-overwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs), even if the paperwork to officially ‘certify’ them for flight has not been completed.
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- Fresh Block 5 Merlin 1D engines are built and assembled in Hawthorne, CA before heading to Texas for testing. (SpaceX)
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- A SpaceX technician documents the condition of Falcon 9 B1048’s Block 5 Merlin engines, 08/01/18. (Pauline Acalin)
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- Falcon 9 shows off some of its COPVs in a tour of SpaceX’s Hawthorne factory. (SpaceX)
This meshes nicely with details provided in a recent NASA Commercial Crew news post, which stated that “Falcon 9’s first and second stages for the Demo-1 [Crew Dragon] mission are targeted to ship … [to] McGregor, Texas for additional testing in August.” Ship they did and the booster may well have beaten that “August” timeframe according to photos of the facility from mid-July. When exactly that testing will wrap up in Texas is unclear but it would be reasonable to expect the rocket booster and upper stage to ship to SpaceX’s Launch Complex 39A (LC-39A) in Cape Canaveral within 4-6 weeks, giving the company a solid month and a half to integrate the rocket, static fire it at the pad, complete assembly of Crew Dragon, and attach the spacecraft to its Falcon 9 rocket ahead of launch.
For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet (including fairing catcher Mr Steven) check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!
Tesla analyst Gary Black of The Future Fund claims that the company is making a big mistake getting rid of the Model S and Model X. Instead, he believes another vehicle within the company’s lineup should be discontinued: the Cybertruck.
Black divested The Future Fund from all Tesla holdings last year, but he still covers the stock as an analyst as it falls in the technology and autonomy sectors, which he covers.
In a new comment on Thursday, Black said the Cybertruck should be the vehicle Tesla gets rid of due to the negatives it has drawn to the company.
The Cybertruck is also selling in an underwhelming fashion considering the production capacity Tesla has set aside for it. It’s worth noting it is still the best-selling electric pickup on the market, and it has outlasted other EV truck projects as other manufacturers are receding their efforts.
Black said:
“IMHO it’s a mistake to keep Tesla Cybertruck which has negative brand equity and sold 10,000 units last year, and discontinue S/X which have strong repeat brand loyalty and together sold 30K units and are highly profitable. Why not discontinue CT and covert S/X to be fully autonomous?”
IMHO it’s a mistake to keep $TSLA Cybertruck which has negative brand equity and sold 10,000 units last year, and discontinue S/X which have strong repeat brand loyalty and together sold 30K units and are highly profitable. Why not discontinue CT and covert S/X to be fully…
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) January 29, 2026
On Wednesday, CEO Elon Musk confirmed that Tesla planned to transition Model S and Model X production lines at the Fremont Factory to handle manufacturing efforts of the Optimus Gen 3 robot.
Musk said that it was time to wind down the S and X programs “with an honorable discharge,” also noting that the two cars are not major contributors to Tesla’s mission any longer, as its automotive division is more focused on autonomy, which will be handled by Model 3, Model Y, and Cybercab.
Tesla begins Cybertruck deliveries in a new region for the first time
The news has drawn conflicting perspectives, with many Tesla fans upset about the decision, especially as it ends the production of the largest car in the company’s lineup. Tesla’s focus is on smaller ride-sharing vehicles, especially as the vast majority of rides consist of two or fewer passengers.
The S and X do not fit in these plans.
Nevertheless, the Cybertruck fits in Tesla’s future plans. Musk said the pickup will be needed for the transportation of local goods. Musk also said Cybertruck would be transitioned to an autonomous line.
In a groundbreaking new report from Reuters, SpaceX is reportedly discussing merger possibilities with xAI ahead of the space exploration company’s plans to IPO later this year, in what would be a blockbuster move.
The outlet said it would combine rockets and Starlink satellites, as well as the X social media platform and AI project Grok under one roof. The report cites “a person briefed on the matter and two recent company filings seen by Reuters.”
Musk, nor SpaceX or xAI, have commented on the report, so, as of now, it is unconfirmed.
With that being said, the proposed merger would bring shares of xAI in exchange for shares of SpaceX. Both companies were registered in Nevada to expedite the transaction, according to the report.
On January 21, both entities were registered in Nevada. The report continues:
“One of them, a limited liability company, lists SpaceX and Bret Johnsen, the company’s chief financial officer, as managing members, while the other lists Johnsen as the company’s only officer, the filings show.”
The source also stated that some xAI executives could be given the option to receive cash in lieu of SpaceX stock. No agreement has been reached, nothing has been signed, and the timing and structure, as well as other important details, have not been finalized.
SpaceX is valued at $800 billion and is the most valuable privately held company, while xAI is valued at $230 billion as of November. SpaceX could be going public later this year, as Musk has said as recently as December that the company would offer its stock publicly.
The plans could help move along plans for large-scale data centers in space, something Musk has discussed on several occasions over the past few months.
At the World Economic Forum last week, Musk said:
“It’s a no-brainer for building solar-powered AI data centers in space, because as I mentioned, it’s also very cold in space. The net effect is that the lowest cost place to put AI will be space and that will be true within two to three years, three at the latest.”
He also said on X that “the most important thing in the next 3-4 years is data centers in space.”
If the report is true and the two companies end up coming together, it would not be the first time Musk’s companies have ended up coming together. He used Tesla stock to purchase SolarCity back in 2016. Last year, X became part of xAI in a share swap.
Tesla has announced it has hit a major milestone with Full Self-Driving subscriptions, shortly after it said it would exclusively offer the suite without the option to purchase it outright.
Tesla announced on Wednesday during its Q4 Earnings Call for 2025 that it had officially eclipsed the one million subscription mark for its Full Self-Driving suite. This represented a 38 percent increase year-over-year.
This is up from the roughly 800,000 active subscriptions it reported last year. The company has seen significant increases in FSD adoption over the past few years, as in 2021, it reported just 400,000. In 2022, it was up to 500,000 and, one year later, it had eclipsed 600,000.
NEWS: For the first time, Tesla has revealed how many people are subscribed or have purchased FSD (Supervised).
Active FSD Subscriptions:
• 2025: 1.1 million
• 2024: 800K
• 2023: 600K
• 2022: 500K
• 2021: 400K pic.twitter.com/KVtnyANWcs— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) January 28, 2026
In mid-January, CEO Elon Musk announced that the company would transition away from giving the option to purchase the Full Self-Driving suite outright, opting for the subscription program exclusively.
Musk said on X:
“Tesla will stop selling FSD after Feb 14. FSD will only be available as a monthly subscription thereafter.”
The move intends to streamline the Full Self-Driving purchase option, and gives Tesla more control over its revenue, and closes off the ability to buy it outright for a bargain when Musk has said its value could be close to $100,000 when it reaches full autonomy.
It also caters to Musk’s newest compensation package. One tranche requires Tesla to achieve 10 million active FSD subscriptions, and now that it has reached one million, it is already seeing some growth.
The strategy that Tesla will use to achieve this lofty goal is still under wraps. The most ideal solution would be to offer a less expensive version of the suite, which is not likely considering the company is increasing its capabilities, and it is becoming more robust.
Tesla is shifting FSD to a subscription-only model, confirms Elon Musk
Currently, Tesla’s FSD subscription price is $99 per month, but Musk said this price will increase, which seems counterintuitive to its goal of increasing the take rate. With that being said, it will be interesting to see what Tesla does to navigate growth while offering a robust FSD suite.
Tesla analyst claims another vehicle, not Model S and X, should be discontinued
SpaceX reportedly discussing merger with xAI ahead of blockbuster IPO
