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SpaceX’s Crew Dragon launch moves to March, risking Falcon Heavy delays

SpaceX completed a static fire of the first Falcon 9 rated for human flight on January 24th. DM-1 is now NET March 2019, clashing with Falcon Heavy's schedule. (SpaceX)

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The planning date for the launch debut of SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft has been pushed to no earlier than (NET) March 2019 per sources familiar with the matter, potentially creating a direct schedule conflict with the company’s planned operational debut of Falcon Heavy, also NET March 2019.

At the same time as delays to the Commercial Crew Program continue to increase the odds that NASA will lose assured access to the International Space Station (ISS) in 2020, both of SpaceX’s critical missions are entirely dependent upon the support of its Kennedy Space Center-located Launch Complex 39A (Pad 39A), creating a logistical puzzle that will likely delay Falcon Heavy’s second launch until Crew Dragon is safely in orbit.

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As of the first week of December 2018, SpaceX was reportedly planning towards a mid-January 2019 launch debut for Crew Dragon. By the end of December, DM-1 was no earlier than the end of January. By the end of January, DM-1 had slipped to from late-February to NET March 2019. Put in slightly different terms, SpaceX’s Crew Dragon launch debut has been more or less indefinitely postponed for the last two months, with planning dates being pushed back at roughly the same pace as the passage of time (i.e. a day’s delay every day).

Admittedly, DM’s apparently indefinite postponement may well be – and probably is – more of an artifact than a sign of any monolithic cause. While the US government’s longest-ever shutdown (35 days) undoubtedly delayed a major proportion of mission-critical work having to do with extensive NASA reviews of SpaceX and Crew Dragon’s launch readiness (known as Readiness Reviews), much of the 60+ day DM-1 delay can probably be attributed to the complexity of the tasks at hand. Being as it is the first time SpaceX has ever attempted a launch directly related to human spaceflight, as well as the first time NASA has been back at the helm (more or less) of US astronaut launch endeavors in more than 7.5 years, significant delays should come as no surprise regardless of how disappointing they may be.

The most consequential aspect of DM-1’s two-month (at least) delay will likely be the myriad ways it feeds into delays of SpaceX’s in-flight abort (IFA) test and first crewed launch (DM-2), and thus’s NASA’s ability to once again independently launch US astronauts. Given that SpaceX’s DM-2 is expected to occur around six months after DM-1 and that the final certification of Crew Dragon for official astronaut launches will likely take another 2-3 months, these delays – barring heroics or program modifications – are pushing NASA dangerously close to the edge of losing assured US access to the International Space Station (ISS).

According to a July 2018 report, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) analyzed the Commercial Crew Program and NASA’s human spaceflight program more generally and concluded that NASA would lose assured access to the ISS in November 2019 if Boeing and SpaceX continued to suffer delays and were unable to reach certification status by then. This comes as a result of NASA’s reliance on Russian Soyuz launches for access both to and from the ISS, launch and return service contracts which have no replacements (aside from SpaceX and Boeing). While GAO noted that NASA could likely delay that loss of assured access until January 2020, even that might be pushing it if SpaceX’s DM-1 delay continues much further.

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“[While NASA is working on potential solutions, it] has not yet developed a contingency plan to address the potential gaps that [future delays in Boeing and SpaceX schedules] could have on U.S. access to the ISS after 2019.” – GAO, July 2018

Prior to DM-1’s delay from NET January to NET March 2019, SpaceX was targeting an In-Flight Abort test roughly three months after DM-1 (it will reuse DM-1’s Crew Dragon capsule), DM-2 six months after DM-1 (NET June 2019), and NASA certification and the first operational astronaut launch (PCM-1) as few as two months after DM-2 (August 2019). It’s reasonable to assume that delays to DM-1 will impact subsequent Crew Dragon launches roughly 1:1, as DM-2 and its many associated reviews hinge directly on DM-1, while the same relationship also exists between PCM-1 and DM-2. As a result, Crew Dragon’s two-month delay probably means that SpaceX’s NASA certification will occur no earlier than October 2019, giving NASA no more than 90 days of buffer before the US presence on the ISS drops from around 50% (3 astronauts) to 0%.

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Crew Dragon and Falcon Heavy walk into a bar…

The unexpected delays to Crew Dragon’s DM-1 launch debut are likely placing SpaceX in an awkward situation with respect to the operational launch debut of Falcon Heavy, meant to place the terminally delayed Arabsat 6A satellite into orbit no earlier than March 7th, 2019 (at the absolute earliest). DM-1 is also targeting a launch sometime in March, posing a significant problem: both Falcon Heavy and Crew Dragon can only launch from Pad 39A, while the on-site hangar simply doesn’t have the space to support schedule-critical Falcon Heavy prelaunch work (mainly booster integration and a static fire test) and no less critical Crew Dragon launch preparations simultaneously.

 

Much like SpaceX’s inaugural Falcon Heavy rocket spent a month and a half fully integrated and more than two weeks in a static-fire limbo (albeit due to one-of-a-kind circumstances) before its launch debut, SpaceX’s second Falcon Heavy rocket – comprised of three new Block 5 boosters and Heavy-specific hardware upgrades – is likely to take a good deal more time than a normal Falcon 9 for prelaunch processing. Almost all of that Heavy-specific testing depends on the rocket being integrated (i.e. all three boosters attached) for preflight fit and systems checks and a wet dress rehearsal (WDR) and/or static fire ignition test.

It’s entirely possible that SpaceX integration technicians are able to complete the process of swapping out Crew Dragon and Falcon 9, modifying the transport/erector (T/E), completing Falcon Heavy booster integration, and installing Falcon Heavy on the T/E quickly enough to allow for simultaneous DM-1 and Arabsat 6A processing. It’s also possible that an extremely elegant but risky alternative strategy could solve the logistical puzzle – as an example, SpaceX could roll Crew Dragon and Falcon 9 out to Pad 39A a week or more before launch to give Falcon Heavy enough space for full integration, whereby Falcon 9’s necessarily successful launch would clear the T/E and allow it to be rolled back into 39A’s hangar for Falcon Heavy installation.

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The most likely (and least risky) end result, however, is an indefinite delay for Falcon Heavy Flight 2, pending the successful launch of Crew Dragon. This is very much an instance where “wait and see” is the only route to solid answers, so wait and see we shall.


Check out Teslarati’s newsletters for prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket launch and recovery processes!

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk

TIME honors SpaceX’s Gwynne Shotwell: From employee No. 7 to world’s most valuable company

Time Magazine honors Gwynne Shotwell as SpaceX reaches a $1.25 trillion valuation and eyes its IPO.

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TIME Magazine has put SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell on its cover, and the timing could not be more fitting. Published today, the profile of Shotwell arrives at a moment when the company she has quietly run for more than two decades stands at the center of the most consequential developments in aerospace, artificial intelligence, and the future of human civilization.

Shotwell joined SpaceX in 2002 as its seventh employee and has never stopped expanding her role. She oversees day-to-day operations across multiple executive teams spanning Falcon, Starlink, Starship, and now xAI following SpaceX’s February 2026 merger with Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company, a deal that made SpaceX the world’s most valuable private company at a reported valuation of $1.25 trillion. A highly anticipated IPO is expected in the second quarter of 2026.

Will Tesla join the fold? Predicting a triple merger with SpaceX and xAI

Her track record is historic. She oversaw the first landing of an orbital rocket’s first stage, the first reuse and re-landing of an orbital booster, and the first private crewed launch to Earth orbit in May 2020. She built the Falcon launch manifest from nothing to more than 170 contracted missions representing over $20 billion in business. Under her operational leadership, SpaceX completed 96 successful missions in 2023 alone and has now flown more than 20 crewed Falcon 9 missions. Starlink, which she championed as a financial pillar of the company long before it was a mainstream topic, now connects tens of millions of users worldwide and provided a critical communications lifeline to Ukraine following the 2022 invasion.

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Elon Musk has never been shy about what Shotwell means to him and to SpaceX. When she shared her vision for worldwide internet connectivity through Starlink, Musk responded on X with a simple statement, “Gwynne is awesome.” It is a sentiment that has been echoed across the industry. NASA Administrator Bill Nelson once said of Musk: “One of the most important decisions he made, as a matter of fact, is he picked a president named Gwynne Shotwell. She runs SpaceX. She is excellent.”


Now, with Starship targeting its first crewed lunar landing under the Artemis program by 2028, an xAI integration underway, and a pending IPO that could reshape capital markets, Shotwell’s mandate has never been larger. She told Time that 18 Starships are already in various stages of construction at Starbase. “By 2028,” she said, gesturing across the factory floor, “these should be long gone. They better have flown by then.” If Shotwell’s history at SpaceX is any guide, they will.

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Elon Musk

SpaceX’s IPO might arrive sooner than you think

Musk has hinted for years that an eventual public offering was inevitable, though he has stressed the need to maintain operational focus. Insiders have told outlets that the CEO is pushing for a significant retail investor allocation, reportedly more than 20 percent of shares, and tighter lock-up periods to limit early selling pressure.

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Credit: SpaceX | X

Elon Musk’s SpaceX is on the verge of one of the most anticipated Initial Public Offerings (IPO) in history.

However, a new report from The Information indicates the rocket and satellite giant is aiming to file its IPO prospectus with U.S. regulators as soon as this week, or early next week at the latest.

People familiar with the plans told The Information that advisers involved in the process expect the IPO could raise more than 75 billion dollars, potentially making it the largest stock market debut ever and eclipsing Saudi Aramco’s 29.4 billion dollar offering in 2019.

The filing would mark the formal start of what has long been rumored: SpaceX’s transition from a closely held private powerhouse to a publicly traded company.

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The timing aligns with earlier signals.

In late February, Bloomberg reported that SpaceX was targeting a confidential IPO filing in March and a possible public listing in June, with a valuation north of 1.75 trillion dollars. At the time, the company’s private valuation hovered around 1.25 trillion dollars.

SpaceX considering confidential IPO filing this March: report

Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite internet constellation, has been the primary driver of that surge, now serving millions of customers worldwide and generating steady revenue. Recent Starship test flights and a record pace of Falcon launches have further bolstered investor confidence.

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Musk has hinted for years that an eventual public offering was inevitable, though he has stressed the need to maintain operational focus. Insiders have told outlets that the CEO is pushing for a significant retail investor allocation, reportedly more than 20 percent of shares, and tighter lock-up periods to limit early selling pressure.

A June listing would give SpaceX immediate access to public capital markets at a moment when demand for space-related stocks remains high. It would also allow early employees and long-time investors to cash out portions of their stakes while giving everyday shareholders a chance to own a piece of the company behind reusable rockets, global broadband, and NASA contracts.

Of course, nothing is certain until the SEC filing appears. Market conditions, regulatory reviews, and Musk’s own schedule could still shift timelines.

Yet the latest word from The Information suggests the window has opened. If the filing lands this week, SpaceX’s roadshow could begin in earnest within weeks, setting the stage for what many analysts already call the IPO of the decade.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk’s TERAFAB project: Everything you need to know

The CEO has hinted heavily for several quarters that it would probably need to produce its own computing power to stay up to speed on the demand it is facing for its projects. It is now taking matters into its own hands.

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Credit: SpaceX

On Sunday, Elon Musk formally made TERAFAB official—a groundbreaking $20-25 billion joint venture uniting Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI, three of the world’s richest man’s most significant and powerful ventures.

Musk described the project as “the most epic chip building exercise in history by far.”

Elon Musk launches TERAFAB: The $25B Tesla-SpaceXAI chip factory that will rewire the AI industry

The initiative aims to produce over one terawatt of AI compute annually, dwarfing the global industry’s current output of roughly 20 gigawatts per year. Musk framed the effort as “the next step towards becoming a galactic civilization,” positioning it as essential for scaling humanity into a multi-planetary species.

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The Need for TERAFAB

Existing chip suppliers such as TSMC, Samsung, and Micron cannot expand quickly enough to meet the explosive demand for AI hardware.

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Musk explained the situation clearly:

“We’re very grateful to our existing supply chain… but there’s a maximum rate at which they’re comfortable expanding. We either build the Terafab or we don’t have the chips, and we need the chips, so we build the Terafab.”

The CEO has hinted heavily for several quarters that it would probably need to produce its own computing power to stay up to speed on the demand it is facing for its projects. It is now taking matters into its own hands.

Chip Types and Production Goals

The facility will manufacture two specialized chip families, according to the presentation:

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  • Edge-inference AI5 and AI6 processors optimized for Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robots and Full Self-Driving systems in vehicles and Robotaxis
  • High-power D3 chips hardened for space environments

Musk outlined annual output targets, which are between 100 and 200 gigawatts of terrestrial compute for robotics, supporting Musk’s vision of producing 1-10 billion Optimus units per year, and the majority (80%) of chips dedicated to orbital AI data centers. Overall, TERAFAB aims to produce 100-200 billion custom AI and memory chips each year.

Scale and Strategy

The size of the TERAFAB project will be remarkable, as Musk indicated after the presentation that the entire Gigafactory Texas campus would not be large enough to fit the needs of the project. In fact, Musk said it would be around 100 million square feet in size, the equivalent of 15 Pentagons or three Central Parks.

Yes, the one in New York City.

Construction will begin with an “advanced technology fab” on the Giga Texas campus in Austin, enabling rapid iteration: design a chip, fabricate lithography masks, produce and test wafers, all within days.

However, the full-scale TERAFAB requires thousands of acres and over 10 gigawatts of power, far exceeding what Giga Texas can accommodate. Musk stated:

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“We couldn’t possibly fit the Terafab on the GigaTexas campus. It will be far bigger than everything else combined there.”

Multiple large sites are currently under consideration, but this will need a sprawling land mass to get started.

Key Applications

TERAFAB will be a crucial part of the development of some of Tesla’s most valuable projects, including Optimus and data center development, especially from an orbital standpoint. For that reason, we will break this down into Terrestrial and Orbital applications:

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  • Terrestrial: Powers autonomous vehicle fleets and billions of Optimus robots performing physical labor
  • Orbital: Starship will launch massive AI satellite constellations, starting with 100-kilowatt “Mini” units, and scaling to larger Megawatt models, creating the world’s largest data center in low-Earth orbit.

Space-based advantages include five times greater solar irradiance, efficient vacuum heat rejection, and freedom from terrestrial grid constraints (U.S. electricity generation totals just 0.5 terawatts). Musk emphasized the principle:

“Quantity has a quality all its own.”

We wrote about SpaceX’s recent filing with the FCC for 1 million orbital data center plans.

Strategic Vision

TERAFAB represents vertical integration at an unprecedented scale, combining AI hardware, robotics, and orbital infrastructure.

Musk described the project as “the final missing piece of the puzzle.” With production ramping toward 2027, TERAFAB is set to accelerate an era of abundance, transforming science fiction into reality and positioning Musk’s companies at the forefront of galactic-scale innovation.

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