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SpaceX’s Crew Dragon launch moves to March, risking Falcon Heavy delays

SpaceX completed a static fire of the first Falcon 9 rated for human flight on January 24th. DM-1 is now NET March 2019, clashing with Falcon Heavy's schedule. (SpaceX)

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The planning date for the launch debut of SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft has been pushed to no earlier than (NET) March 2019 per sources familiar with the matter, potentially creating a direct schedule conflict with the company’s planned operational debut of Falcon Heavy, also NET March 2019.

At the same time as delays to the Commercial Crew Program continue to increase the odds that NASA will lose assured access to the International Space Station (ISS) in 2020, both of SpaceX’s critical missions are entirely dependent upon the support of its Kennedy Space Center-located Launch Complex 39A (Pad 39A), creating a logistical puzzle that will likely delay Falcon Heavy’s second launch until Crew Dragon is safely in orbit.

As of the first week of December 2018, SpaceX was reportedly planning towards a mid-January 2019 launch debut for Crew Dragon. By the end of December, DM-1 was no earlier than the end of January. By the end of January, DM-1 had slipped to from late-February to NET March 2019. Put in slightly different terms, SpaceX’s Crew Dragon launch debut has been more or less indefinitely postponed for the last two months, with planning dates being pushed back at roughly the same pace as the passage of time (i.e. a day’s delay every day).

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Admittedly, DM’s apparently indefinite postponement may well be – and probably is – more of an artifact than a sign of any monolithic cause. While the US government’s longest-ever shutdown (35 days) undoubtedly delayed a major proportion of mission-critical work having to do with extensive NASA reviews of SpaceX and Crew Dragon’s launch readiness (known as Readiness Reviews), much of the 60+ day DM-1 delay can probably be attributed to the complexity of the tasks at hand. Being as it is the first time SpaceX has ever attempted a launch directly related to human spaceflight, as well as the first time NASA has been back at the helm (more or less) of US astronaut launch endeavors in more than 7.5 years, significant delays should come as no surprise regardless of how disappointing they may be.

The most consequential aspect of DM-1’s two-month (at least) delay will likely be the myriad ways it feeds into delays of SpaceX’s in-flight abort (IFA) test and first crewed launch (DM-2), and thus’s NASA’s ability to once again independently launch US astronauts. Given that SpaceX’s DM-2 is expected to occur around six months after DM-1 and that the final certification of Crew Dragon for official astronaut launches will likely take another 2-3 months, these delays – barring heroics or program modifications – are pushing NASA dangerously close to the edge of losing assured US access to the International Space Station (ISS).

According to a July 2018 report, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) analyzed the Commercial Crew Program and NASA’s human spaceflight program more generally and concluded that NASA would lose assured access to the ISS in November 2019 if Boeing and SpaceX continued to suffer delays and were unable to reach certification status by then. This comes as a result of NASA’s reliance on Russian Soyuz launches for access both to and from the ISS, launch and return service contracts which have no replacements (aside from SpaceX and Boeing). While GAO noted that NASA could likely delay that loss of assured access until January 2020, even that might be pushing it if SpaceX’s DM-1 delay continues much further.

“[While NASA is working on potential solutions, it] has not yet developed a contingency plan to address the potential gaps that [future delays in Boeing and SpaceX schedules] could have on U.S. access to the ISS after 2019.” – GAO, July 2018

Prior to DM-1’s delay from NET January to NET March 2019, SpaceX was targeting an In-Flight Abort test roughly three months after DM-1 (it will reuse DM-1’s Crew Dragon capsule), DM-2 six months after DM-1 (NET June 2019), and NASA certification and the first operational astronaut launch (PCM-1) as few as two months after DM-2 (August 2019). It’s reasonable to assume that delays to DM-1 will impact subsequent Crew Dragon launches roughly 1:1, as DM-2 and its many associated reviews hinge directly on DM-1, while the same relationship also exists between PCM-1 and DM-2. As a result, Crew Dragon’s two-month delay probably means that SpaceX’s NASA certification will occur no earlier than October 2019, giving NASA no more than 90 days of buffer before the US presence on the ISS drops from around 50% (3 astronauts) to 0%.

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Crew Dragon and Falcon Heavy walk into a bar…

The unexpected delays to Crew Dragon’s DM-1 launch debut are likely placing SpaceX in an awkward situation with respect to the operational launch debut of Falcon Heavy, meant to place the terminally delayed Arabsat 6A satellite into orbit no earlier than March 7th, 2019 (at the absolute earliest). DM-1 is also targeting a launch sometime in March, posing a significant problem: both Falcon Heavy and Crew Dragon can only launch from Pad 39A, while the on-site hangar simply doesn’t have the space to support schedule-critical Falcon Heavy prelaunch work (mainly booster integration and a static fire test) and no less critical Crew Dragon launch preparations simultaneously.

 

Much like SpaceX’s inaugural Falcon Heavy rocket spent a month and a half fully integrated and more than two weeks in a static-fire limbo (albeit due to one-of-a-kind circumstances) before its launch debut, SpaceX’s second Falcon Heavy rocket – comprised of three new Block 5 boosters and Heavy-specific hardware upgrades – is likely to take a good deal more time than a normal Falcon 9 for prelaunch processing. Almost all of that Heavy-specific testing depends on the rocket being integrated (i.e. all three boosters attached) for preflight fit and systems checks and a wet dress rehearsal (WDR) and/or static fire ignition test.

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It’s entirely possible that SpaceX integration technicians are able to complete the process of swapping out Crew Dragon and Falcon 9, modifying the transport/erector (T/E), completing Falcon Heavy booster integration, and installing Falcon Heavy on the T/E quickly enough to allow for simultaneous DM-1 and Arabsat 6A processing. It’s also possible that an extremely elegant but risky alternative strategy could solve the logistical puzzle – as an example, SpaceX could roll Crew Dragon and Falcon 9 out to Pad 39A a week or more before launch to give Falcon Heavy enough space for full integration, whereby Falcon 9’s necessarily successful launch would clear the T/E and allow it to be rolled back into 39A’s hangar for Falcon Heavy installation.

The most likely (and least risky) end result, however, is an indefinite delay for Falcon Heavy Flight 2, pending the successful launch of Crew Dragon. This is very much an instance where “wait and see” is the only route to solid answers, so wait and see we shall.


Check out Teslarati’s newsletters for prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket launch and recovery processes!

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Starship Flight 9 nears as SpaceX’s Starbase becomes a Texan City

SpaceX’s launch site is officially incorporated as Starbase, TX. Starship Flight 9 could launch on May 27, 2025. 

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(Credit: Jenny Hautmann/Wikimedia Commons)

SpaceX’s Starbase is officially incorporated as a city in Texas, aligning with preparations for Starship Flight 9. The newly formed city in Cameron County serves as the heart of SpaceX’s Starship program.

Starbase City spans 1.5 square miles, encompassing SpaceX’s launch facility and company-owned land. A near-unanimous vote by residents, who were mostly SpaceX employees, led to its incorporation. SpaceX’s Vice President of Test and Launch, Bobby Peden, was elected mayor of Starbase. The new Texas city also has two SpaceX employees as commissioners. All Starbase officials will serve two-year terms unless extended to four by voters.

As the new city takes shape, SpaceX is preparing for the Starship Flight 9 launch, which is tentatively scheduled for May 27, 2025, at 6:30 PM CDT from Starbase, Texas.

SpaceX secured Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) approval for up to 25 annual Starship and Super Heavy launches from the site. However, the FAA emphasized that “there are other licensing requirements still to be completed,” including policy, safety, and environmental reviews.

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On May 15, the FAA noted SpaceX updated its launch license for Flight 9, but added: “SpaceX may not launch until the FAA either closes the Starship Flight 8 mishap investigation or makes a return to flight determination. The FAA is reviewing the mishap report SpaceX submitted on May 14.”

Proposed Texas legislation could empower Starbase officials to close local highways and restrict Boca Chica Beach access during launches. Cameron County Judge Eddie Trevino, Jr., opposes the Texas legislation, insisting beach access remain under county control. This tension highlights the balance between SpaceX’s ambitions and local interests.

Starbase’s incorporation strengthens SpaceX’s operational base as it gears up for Starship Flight 9, a critical step in its mission to revolutionize space travel. With growing infrastructure and regulatory hurdles in focus, Starbase is poised to become a cornerstone of SpaceX’s vision, blending community development with cutting-edge aerospace innovation.

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United Airlines debuts Starlink Wi-Fi on Detroit flight

United’s first passenger flight with Starlink Wi-Fi just landed in Detroit. Mainline flights to follow by year-end.

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(Credit: United Airlines)

United Airlines debuted Starlink Wi-Fi on its first passenger flight to Detroit, marking a milestone in in-flight connectivity with SpaceX’s satellite internet.

On Thursday, the morning flight from Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport introduced high-speed, gate-to-gate Starlink internet for United Airlines passengers. The Starlink-equipped United Embraer E-175, tail number UA5717, departed at 7:35 a.m. for Detroit Metropolitan Airport.

United announced the rollout on X, stating, “That lightning-fast Wi-Fi we told you about? It’s here. Our first customers just found out what it’s like to break the Wi-Fi barrier and stream, scroll, shop, and game just like at home with Starlink. And it’s FREE for MileagePlus members. Rolling out across our fleet now.”

The service leverages Starlink’s 7,000+ low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites to deliver broadband globally, including in remote areas. United is the only major U.S. airline currently offering Starlink. The airline plans to expand the service across its two-cabin regional fleet and introduce it on mainline flights by year-end.

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Sean Cudahy from The Points Guy tested Starlink’s Wi-Fi pre-launch, praising its ease and reliability. “I ran a speed test, and it clocked the Wi-Fi at 217 Mbps of download speed, and 26.8 Mbps of upload speed,” Cudahy shared, noting its suitability for long flights.

Beyond aviation, SpaceX is pitching Starlink as a GPS alternative, emphasizing its potential for Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) services. This dual capability underscores Starlink’s versatility.

In a letter to the FCC, SpaceX wrote, “One opportunity stands out as a particularly ripe, low-hanging fruit: facilitating the rapid deployment of next-generation low-Earth orbit (‘LEO’) satellite constellations that can deliver PNT as a service alongside high-speed, low-latency broadband and ubiquitous mobile connectivity.”

As SpaceX expands Starlink’s applications, from aviation to navigation, United’s adoption signals a broader shift toward satellite-driven connectivity on long flights. With plans to equip more aircraft, United and Starlink are redefining in-flight internet, promising seamless digital access at 30,000 feet.

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SpaceX touts Starlink as GPS alternative in FCC PNT push

SpaceX highlighted Starlink’s potential to deliver PNT services alongside its broadband offerings.

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SpaceX is positioning its Starlink constellation as a viable GPS alternative. In a letter to the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), SpaceX stated that it could leverage Starlink satellites for next-generation Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) solutions.

GPS has been run through a single provider in the United States, the Defense Department. The FCC intends to use Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) solutions to complement GPS technologies. In its letter, SpaceX highlighted Starlink’s potential to deliver PNT services alongside its broadband offerings in its letter to the FCC.

“As the Commission identifies specific actions to contribute to the whole-of-government PNT system resilience effort, one opportunity stands out as a particularly ripe, low-hanging fruit: facilitating the rapid deployment of next-generation low-Earth orbit (‘LEO’) satellite constellations that can deliver PNT as a service alongside high-speed, low-latency broadband and ubiquitous mobile connectivity,” SpaceX wrote.

SpaceX also emphasized its ongoing work to integrate PNT into its cellular Starlink service, which is expected to be launched with T-Mobile in July. The private space provider also stated that Starlink satellites already operate independently of GPS. This lays the groundwork for resilient PNT delivery across authorized frequencies, SpaceX noted in its letter.

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“SpaceX has also been actively working to integrate PNT solutions into its direct-to-device commercial service offerings. In so doing, SpaceX can advance the Commission’s goal in this proceeding to maintain American leadership in next-generation PNT services both here at home and in over 130 countries it serves around the world.

“SpaceX looks forward to playing an integral role in creating a more robust, resilient, and secure PNT ecosystem for Americans and people around the world,” SpaceX noted.

SpaceX also advocated for a “technology-neutral approach” to GPS alternatives in its letter, while critiquing EchoStar’s unused 2GHz spectrum for mobile satellite services. Meanwhile, Globalstar, Apple’s satellite provider, also pitched its services as a GPS complement, stating that its services “can function as either an alternative or a complement to GPS.”

“Notably, Globalstar’s satellites transmit outside of the L-band, which provides PNT users with added immunity from GPS jamming and spoofing. In addition, Globalstar’s satellite transmissions at 2.4GHz are stronger than GPS signals, bolstering resilience, performance, and reliability,” GlobalStar noted.

SpaceX’s letter to the FCC can be viewed below.

Starlink GPS FCC by maria on Scribd

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