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SpaceX’s Crew Dragon launch moves to March, risking Falcon Heavy delays

SpaceX completed a static fire of the first Falcon 9 rated for human flight on January 24th. DM-1 is now NET March 2019, clashing with Falcon Heavy's schedule. (SpaceX)

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The planning date for the launch debut of SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft has been pushed to no earlier than (NET) March 2019 per sources familiar with the matter, potentially creating a direct schedule conflict with the company’s planned operational debut of Falcon Heavy, also NET March 2019.

At the same time as delays to the Commercial Crew Program continue to increase the odds that NASA will lose assured access to the International Space Station (ISS) in 2020, both of SpaceX’s critical missions are entirely dependent upon the support of its Kennedy Space Center-located Launch Complex 39A (Pad 39A), creating a logistical puzzle that will likely delay Falcon Heavy’s second launch until Crew Dragon is safely in orbit.

As of the first week of December 2018, SpaceX was reportedly planning towards a mid-January 2019 launch debut for Crew Dragon. By the end of December, DM-1 was no earlier than the end of January. By the end of January, DM-1 had slipped to from late-February to NET March 2019. Put in slightly different terms, SpaceX’s Crew Dragon launch debut has been more or less indefinitely postponed for the last two months, with planning dates being pushed back at roughly the same pace as the passage of time (i.e. a day’s delay every day).

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Admittedly, DM’s apparently indefinite postponement may well be – and probably is – more of an artifact than a sign of any monolithic cause. While the US government’s longest-ever shutdown (35 days) undoubtedly delayed a major proportion of mission-critical work having to do with extensive NASA reviews of SpaceX and Crew Dragon’s launch readiness (known as Readiness Reviews), much of the 60+ day DM-1 delay can probably be attributed to the complexity of the tasks at hand. Being as it is the first time SpaceX has ever attempted a launch directly related to human spaceflight, as well as the first time NASA has been back at the helm (more or less) of US astronaut launch endeavors in more than 7.5 years, significant delays should come as no surprise regardless of how disappointing they may be.

The most consequential aspect of DM-1’s two-month (at least) delay will likely be the myriad ways it feeds into delays of SpaceX’s in-flight abort (IFA) test and first crewed launch (DM-2), and thus’s NASA’s ability to once again independently launch US astronauts. Given that SpaceX’s DM-2 is expected to occur around six months after DM-1 and that the final certification of Crew Dragon for official astronaut launches will likely take another 2-3 months, these delays – barring heroics or program modifications – are pushing NASA dangerously close to the edge of losing assured US access to the International Space Station (ISS).

According to a July 2018 report, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) analyzed the Commercial Crew Program and NASA’s human spaceflight program more generally and concluded that NASA would lose assured access to the ISS in November 2019 if Boeing and SpaceX continued to suffer delays and were unable to reach certification status by then. This comes as a result of NASA’s reliance on Russian Soyuz launches for access both to and from the ISS, launch and return service contracts which have no replacements (aside from SpaceX and Boeing). While GAO noted that NASA could likely delay that loss of assured access until January 2020, even that might be pushing it if SpaceX’s DM-1 delay continues much further.

“[While NASA is working on potential solutions, it] has not yet developed a contingency plan to address the potential gaps that [future delays in Boeing and SpaceX schedules] could have on U.S. access to the ISS after 2019.” – GAO, July 2018

Prior to DM-1’s delay from NET January to NET March 2019, SpaceX was targeting an In-Flight Abort test roughly three months after DM-1 (it will reuse DM-1’s Crew Dragon capsule), DM-2 six months after DM-1 (NET June 2019), and NASA certification and the first operational astronaut launch (PCM-1) as few as two months after DM-2 (August 2019). It’s reasonable to assume that delays to DM-1 will impact subsequent Crew Dragon launches roughly 1:1, as DM-2 and its many associated reviews hinge directly on DM-1, while the same relationship also exists between PCM-1 and DM-2. As a result, Crew Dragon’s two-month delay probably means that SpaceX’s NASA certification will occur no earlier than October 2019, giving NASA no more than 90 days of buffer before the US presence on the ISS drops from around 50% (3 astronauts) to 0%.

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Crew Dragon and Falcon Heavy walk into a bar…

The unexpected delays to Crew Dragon’s DM-1 launch debut are likely placing SpaceX in an awkward situation with respect to the operational launch debut of Falcon Heavy, meant to place the terminally delayed Arabsat 6A satellite into orbit no earlier than March 7th, 2019 (at the absolute earliest). DM-1 is also targeting a launch sometime in March, posing a significant problem: both Falcon Heavy and Crew Dragon can only launch from Pad 39A, while the on-site hangar simply doesn’t have the space to support schedule-critical Falcon Heavy prelaunch work (mainly booster integration and a static fire test) and no less critical Crew Dragon launch preparations simultaneously.

 

Much like SpaceX’s inaugural Falcon Heavy rocket spent a month and a half fully integrated and more than two weeks in a static-fire limbo (albeit due to one-of-a-kind circumstances) before its launch debut, SpaceX’s second Falcon Heavy rocket – comprised of three new Block 5 boosters and Heavy-specific hardware upgrades – is likely to take a good deal more time than a normal Falcon 9 for prelaunch processing. Almost all of that Heavy-specific testing depends on the rocket being integrated (i.e. all three boosters attached) for preflight fit and systems checks and a wet dress rehearsal (WDR) and/or static fire ignition test.

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It’s entirely possible that SpaceX integration technicians are able to complete the process of swapping out Crew Dragon and Falcon 9, modifying the transport/erector (T/E), completing Falcon Heavy booster integration, and installing Falcon Heavy on the T/E quickly enough to allow for simultaneous DM-1 and Arabsat 6A processing. It’s also possible that an extremely elegant but risky alternative strategy could solve the logistical puzzle – as an example, SpaceX could roll Crew Dragon and Falcon 9 out to Pad 39A a week or more before launch to give Falcon Heavy enough space for full integration, whereby Falcon 9’s necessarily successful launch would clear the T/E and allow it to be rolled back into 39A’s hangar for Falcon Heavy installation.

The most likely (and least risky) end result, however, is an indefinite delay for Falcon Heavy Flight 2, pending the successful launch of Crew Dragon. This is very much an instance where “wait and see” is the only route to solid answers, so wait and see we shall.


Check out Teslarati’s newsletters for prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket launch and recovery processes!

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk

Starship’s next chapter: SpaceX eyes tower catch after flawless Flight 11

Elon Musk has revealed the tentative timeframe for Starship’s next milestone that would push the spacecraft’s reusability to a whole new level. 

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Credit: SpaceX

Elon Musk has revealed the tentative timeframe for Starship’s next milestone that would push the spacecraft’s reusability to a whole new level. 

Following Flight 11’s flawless mission, Musk noted on X that SpaceX will be aiming to catch the Starship Upper Stage with its launch tower as early as spring 2026. This should pave the way for SpaceX to start optimizing Starship for maximum reusability.

Flight 11 closes the Starship V2 chapter on a high note

Starship’s eleventh flight, which launched from Starbase, Texas, achieved every major mission objective. The Super Heavy booster completed a successful ascent, hover, and soft splashdown in the Gulf of America, while the upper stage executed an orbit burn, deployed Starlink simulators, and returned with a controlled reentry over the Indian Ocean.

This mission officially closed the chapter on the second-generation Starship and first-generation Super Heavy booster, and it set the stage for a redesigned vehicle built for orbital payload missions, propellant transfer, and beyond. It should be noted that Elon Musk has mentioned on X that Starship V3, at least if things go well, might be capable of reaching Mars.

Elon Musk confirms tower catch attempt set for spring

After Flight 11’s success, Musk confirmed that SpaceX will attempt to catch the Starship Upper Stage with its launch tower arms, fondly dubbed by the spaceflight community as “chopsticks,” in the coming months. Musk’s announcement came as a response to an X user who asked when the tower could start catching the Starship Upper Stage. In his reply, Musk simply wrote “Springtime.” 

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Starship’s reusability is a key feature of the spacecraft, with SpaceX aiming to achieve a launch cadence that is almost comparable to conventional aircraft. For such a scenario to be feasible, launch tower catches of both Starship’s Upper Stage and its Super Heavy booster have to be routine.

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Elon Musk

SpaceX is preparing to launch Starship V2 one final time

The mission will test reentry dynamics, new landing burn configurations, and heat-shield upgrades.

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Credit: SpaceX/X

SpaceX is preparing to launch its final Starship V2 rocket on October 13, 2025. The launch closes the curtain on Starship V2 and marks the start of the ambitious spacecraft’s V3 era. 

Liftoff for Flight 11 is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET from Starbase in South Texas, with a 75-minute launch window. The mission will test reentry dynamics, new landing burn configurations, and heat-shield upgrades ahead of the transition to the next-generation Starship V3.

Starship V3 and beyond

Elon Musk confirmed on X that Starship V3 is already in production and could be “built & tested” and perhaps even flown before the end of 2025. The new version is expected to feature major performance and scale improvements, with Musk stating that Starship V3, provided that things go well, might be capable of reaching Mars, though V4 is more likely to perform a full-scale mission to the red planet. 

“Only one more V2 left to launch,” Musk wrote back in August following Starship’s successful Flight 10 mission. In another post, Musk stated that “Starship V3 is a massive upgrade from the current V2 and should be through production and testing by end of year, with heavy flight activity next year.”

Starship V2’s final mission

Flight 11 is designed to push the limits of Starship V2. SpaceX engineers have intentionally removed heat-shield tiles in vulnerable areas to analyze how the vehicle handles atmospheric reentry under stress, as noted in a Space.com report. The test will also refine subsonic guidance algorithms and new landing burn sequences for the Super Heavy booster that would be used for Starship V3.

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“Super Heavy will ignite 13 engines at the start of the landing burn and then transition to a new configuration with five engines running for the divert phase. Previously done with three engines, the planned baseline for V3 Super Heavy will use five engines during the section of the burn responsible for fine-tuning the booster’s path, adding additional redundancy for spontaneous engine shutdowns. 

“The booster will then transition to its three center engines for the end of the landing burn, entering a full hover while still above the ocean surface, followed by shutdown and dropping into the Gulf of America,” SpaceX wrote in a post on its official website.

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News

Starlink makes a difference in Philippine province ravaged by typhoon

The Severe Tropical Storm battered the province, leaving communications networks in the area in shambles.

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Credit: Starlink/X

The Philippines’ Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) is using Starlink to provide connectivity in the municipality of Masbate, which was affected by Severe Tropical Storm Opong (international name Bualoi). 

The Severe Tropical Storm battered the province, leaving communications networks in the area in shambles.

Starlink units enhance connectivity

DICT Secretary Henry Aguda visited the province to assess internet and communications infrastructure and deliver 10 additional Starlink satellite units, according to the Philippine News Agency. The is move aimed at strengthening emergency response and restore digital access to the area.

Aguda met with Masbate Governor Richard Kho during his visit and joined telecommunications representatives in inspecting provincial offices, free charging stations, and Wi-Fi connectivity sites for residents. 

According to DICT officer-in-charge Rachel Ann Grabador, three Starlink units, 10 routers, and a 2kW solar-powered station have already been deployed in the province following the typhoon. The units have been installed at key facilities such as Masbate Airport’s communications tower and the Masbate Provincial Hospital’s administrative office. 

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Game-changing technology

Thanks to its global coverage and its capability to provide high-speed internet connectivity even in remote areas, Starlink has become the best communications solution that can be deployed in the aftermath of natural disasters. Its low-cost kits, which are capable of of providing fast internet speeds, are also portable, making them easy to deploy in areas that are damaged by natural disasters.

As noted in a Space.com report, there are currently 8,475 Starlink satellites in orbit, of which 8,460 are working, as of September 25, 2025. Initially, SpaceX had filed documents with International regulators to place about 4,000 Starlink satellites in Low Earth Orbit. Over time, however, the number of planned Starlink satellites has grown, with SpaceX aiming to launch as many as 42,000 Starlink satellites to fully connect the globe.

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