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SpaceX gears up for Crew Dragon’s first recovery with a giant inflatable cushion
Paired with observations and comments from sources familiar with the company, all signs seem to indicate that SpaceX is planning to recover their first Crew Dragon spacecraft with a giant inflatable cushion, to be towed a hundred or so miles off the coast of California by one of the company’s Port of LA-stationed recovery vessels.
Despite a minor mishap during some sort of inaugural sea-trial of a custom Crew Dragon mass simulator, SpaceX technicians are pushing ahead with a test campaign intended properly characterize exactly how to best recover a Dragon while side-stepping around the problems caused by seawater immersion.
Inside the clean room at SpaceX HQ, Crew Dragon is nearing completion. This will be the capsule to make the first crewed flight, currently slated for April 2019.#spacex #CrewDragon @Teslarati pic.twitter.com/tjzuwfGV2O
— Pauline Acalin (@w00ki33) August 16, 2018
Why recover your Dragon?
First off, why would SpaceX choose to develop a new method of Dragon recovery – different than the company’s current experience with simply landing the capsules in the ocean – with the expectation that it will debut during the recovery of Crew Dragon after its very first demonstration mission (DM-1)? A huge number of unknowns and major questions remain, but the decision to attempt to avoid seawater immersion during the DM-1 Dragon recovery is very likely no coincidence.
Over the last several years, SpaceX engineers and technicians have learned a huge amount from recovering, refurbishing, and even reusing Cargo Dragons to resupply the International Space Station for NASA. Of all the lessons learned, the most unequivocal has to be a newfound appreciation for just how difficult it is to safely and reliably reuse spacecraft and rocket components after landing and being immersed in seawater. Despite SpaceX’s growing experience with reusing both Falcon 9 and Cargo Dragon, Dragons still typically require a bare minimum of 6-12 months of refurbishment before they are ready for another launch.
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- SpaceX’s CRS-13 Cargo Dragon, capsule C108, seen near the end of its refurbishment. (SpaceX)
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- A reused orbital spacecraft, Cargo Dragon, back on Earth after its second successful resupply mission. (SpaceX)
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- All Crew and Cargo Dragons are built and refurbished in the same processing facility, a clean-room inside SpaceX’s Hawthorne, CA factory. (SpaceX)
For Crew Dragon’s DM-1 debut, it thus makes sense that SpaceX wants to recover the spacecraft in such a way that it is exceptionally easy to rapidly refurbish. Perhaps just several months after that capsule returns to Earth, currently expected no earlier than December 2018, SpaceX’s first crewed Crew Dragon demonstration’s tentative April 2019 launch debut will depend entirely on the completion and review of an In-Flight Abort (IFA) test planned just one month prior, March 2019.
The planned IFA test of Crew Dragon hinges entirely on DM-1 and Dragon refurbishment because the present plan (and launch schedule) absolutely depends on reflying DM-1’s Crew Dragon capsule, potentially recovered from orbit as few as three months prior.
With a successful 2015 Pad Abort already under Crew Dragon’s belt, SpaceX voluntarily chose to conduct an additional complimentary in-flight abort not explicitly required by NASA, designed to demonstrate that Dragon will be able to safely extract astronauts from a failing rocket at the point of peak aerodynamic pressure (Max-Q). Essentially, a combination of successful aborts both on the launch pad and during Max-Q would theoretically demonstrate beyond any reasonable doubt that Crew Dragon really is capable of safely aborting a launch and protecting its astronauts at any point during launch.
Cargo Dragon has demonstrated that – apparently – no amount of heroics can refurbish the recovered spacecraft in just a small handful of months after seawater immersion, not without major changes to its design. As such, preventing that with some sort of inflatable cushion (or even Mr Steven’s net) would likely save many months of drying, cleaning, and requalification testing of all externally impacted components.
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- Cargo Dragon returns to Earth looking rather well-done. (SpaceX)
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- The first spaceworthy Crew Dragon capsule is already in Florida, preparing for its November 2018 launch debut. The same capsule will be refurbished and reflown as few as three months after recovery. (SpaceX)
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- SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule C203 – then assigned DM-2 – is seen here in August 2018. (Pauline Acalin)
How to recover your Dragon
While the “why” is fairly obvious at this point, the “how” of actually making such a cushioned recovery happen is far less clear. Still, we at least know from several recent comments from SpaceX CEO Elon Musk and statements made in environmental impact analyses that the company has been considering such recoveries for some time.
Despite the fact that Crew Dragon’s original propulsive landing capability was nixed due to the unlikelihood of NASA ever certifying it for crewed landings and the expense required to attempt that certification, there is still clearly some latent interest (and value) in precisely landing Crew Dragon, even if only to speed up capsule and crew recovery after splashdown. A March 2018 preliminary environmental impact analysis of Gulf of Mexico Dragon recoveries – as a backup to bad weather in the Pacific and Atlantic – made the interest in precision exceptionally clear.
“The splashdown zone is a circle with a radius of approximately 5.4 nautical miles. … Dragon has been designed to perform precision landings in order to minimize the size of the splashdown zone and recovery time.”
Admittedly, a circle with a diameter of 10.8 nautical miles (20 km) does not exactly scream “precision” and ~20 km is likely around a thousand times less precise than what’s needed to land on the 30m-diameter inflatable structure present at Berth 240, but it’s probable that the splashdown zone as discussed is a worst-case scenario meant to give SpaceX’s recovery team plenty of wiggle room.
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- Crew Dragon was originally designed with propulsive landings in mind, much like Falcon 9’s booster recovery. (SpaceX)
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- In place of propulsive landing, it appears that a giant inflatable cushion is the new solution for quick reuse. (Pauline Acalin)
Musk also took a few seconds of a Falcon Heavy post-launch press conference to briefly describe Mr Steven, and he just so happened to touch on fairing and Dragon recovery:
“And we’ve got a special boat to catch the fairing. … It’s like a giant catcher’s mitt in boat form. I think we might be able to do the same thing with Dragon. So…if NASA wants us to, we can try to catch Dragon. Literally, it’s meant for the fairing, but it would work for Dragon, too.” – Elon Musk
Mr Steven takes one for the team
Even more experimental than fairing recovery, SpaceX happened to experience a minor incident while attempting to test aspects of its prototype Dragon catcher apparatus in early August. Partially captured by Teslarati photographer Pauline Acalin, SpaceX technicians were lifting a Crew Dragon heatshield mass simulator with a healthy topping of buoys onto Mr Steven. Moments after it was lowered onto the deck, the whole setup disappeared below the vessel’s side rails in a massive boom.
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- The Crew Dragon mass simulator is loaded onto Mr Steven for the first time, August 3rd. (Pauline Acalin)
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- Shortly after touchdown, the mass sim disappeared with a deafening boom, presumably breaking through Mr Steven’s wooden deck. (Pauline Acalin)
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- SpaceX technicians lift a Crew Dragon mass simulator off of Mr Steven’s deck after accidentally breaking it. (Pauline Acalin)
According to sources familiar with SpaceX’s recovery fleet, the mishap was much less severe than the deafening noise it produced seemed to indicate from the sidelines. They described the aftermath as “an annoying accident” that was unlikely to take any significant amount of time to repair. More likely than not, Mr Steven’s wooden deck suffered some level of structural degradation after several years of active use, something that SpaceX technicians only discovered after loading (or maybe dropping) a heavy Dragon mass simulator aboard.
Regardless, one could certainly say that the test in question was more or less a success, as it most certainly demonstrated whether Mr Steven’s deck was actually capable of supporting the heavy test article (it was not). A few repairs and structural reinforcements later, the vessel is likely already back in working order, with photos taken on August 19th showing that the focus has returned to the vessel’s arms (two of which must have been removed earlier this week).
For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!
Elon Musk
Trump’s invite for Elon just reshuffled Tesla’s big Signature Delivery Event
Tesla rescheduled its final Model S farewell to May 20 after Musk joined Trump in China.
Tesla has rescheduled its Model S and Model X Signature Edition delivery event to Wednesday, May 20, 2026, after abruptly calling off the original May 12 celebration. The event will take place at Tesla’s factory at 45500 Fremont Boulevard in Fremont, California, the same location where the Model S first rolled off the line in 2012. Invitees received a follow-up email asking them to reconfirm attendance and download a new QR code ticket, with Tesla noting that all travel and accommodation expenses remain the buyer’s responsibility.
The reason behind the original cancellation came into focus the same day it was announced. President Trump invited Elon Musk, Apple’s Tim Cook, BlackRock’s Larry Fink, Boeing’s Kelly Ortberg, and executives from Goldman Sachs, Blackstone, Citigroup, and Meta to join his trip to China this week for a summit with President Xi Jinping. The agenda covers trade, artificial intelligence, export controls, Taiwan, and the Iran war, following weeks of escalating friction between Washington and Beijing over AI technology, sanctions, and rare earth exports. Trump wrote on Truth Social, “I am very much looking forward to my trip to China, an amazing Country, with a Leader, President Xi, respected by all.”
Tesla launches 200mph Model S “Gold” Signature in invite-only purchase
The vehicles at the center of all this are the last Model S and Model X units Tesla will ever build. Priced at $159,420 each, the 250 Model S and 100 Model X Signature Edition units come finished in Garnet Red with a one-year no-resale agreement, giving Tesla right of first refusal if the owner decides to sell. As Teslarati reported, the Model S defined Tesla’s early identity as a serious luxury automaker, and the Fremont factory line that built it is now being converted to manufacture Optimus humanoid robots.
Musk’s inclusion in the China delegation drew attention given his very public relationship with Trump, and the invitation signals the two have moved past and past grievances. Trump originally brought Musk on to lead the Department of Government Efficiency following his inauguration, and despite a sharp public dispute in mid-2025, the two have appeared together repeatedly in recent months. A seat on the China trip, the most diplomatically consequential visit of Trump’s current term, puts Musk back at the table on U.S. economic policy at a moment when Tesla’s China revenue remains one of the company’s most important financial pillars.
Tesla has launched a new solution to a rare but relevant Supercharger problem with a new Virtual Waitlist, a remedy that will solve sequencing confusion when there is a line to charge at one of the company’s locations.
Teslarati reported on what we called the Virtual Queue last month. In rare occurrences, there were physical altercations at Superchargers when someone might have cut in line to charge. Tesla started to develop some sort of system that would resolve this issue, and now it is finally rolling it out.
Tesla launches solution to end Supercharger fights once and for all
It will start with a Pilot Program, and Tesla is calling it the ‘Waitlist.’
Announced on May 11 on the official TeslaCharging X account, the pilot program is currently active at sites in Los Gatos, Mountain View, and San Francisco in California, as well as San Jose, CA, and the Bronx, NY (East Gun Hill Road). Drivers are encouraged to share feedback directly through the Tesla app to refine the system before a potential broader rollout.
We’re now testing a new waitlist feature at 5 Supercharger sites. Share feedback through the Tesla app to help us make it better.
– Los Gatos, CA – Los Gatos Boulevard
– Mountain View, CA – El Monte Avenue
– San Francisco, CA – Lombard Street
– San Jose, CA – Saratoga Avenue
-… pic.twitter.com/epTVzpJxgW— Tesla Charging (@TeslaCharging) May 11, 2026
Tesla released the video above to showcase the feature, which automatically joins the waitlist when your vehicle has the Supercharger with the wait as the destination in the navigation. There is also a notification that lets you know your place in line.
In this specific example, the video shows that the wait is less than five minutes, and that there are two cars ahead of the one in the video:
Credit: Tesla
Having a wait at a Supercharger is relatively rare, but it does happen. It is even more frequent now that there are more EVs allowed to use the Supercharger Network. Those non-Tesla EVs can also join the queue, as Tesla added in its social media release of the pilot program that they can join the waitlist using the Tesla app.
The release of this program should help alleviate the rare risk of incidents at Superchargers. Tesla will expand this program as it sees fit, and it gathers valuable data and reviews from users.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Optimus is already benefiting investors, top Wall Street firm says
Piper Sandler has updated its detailed valuation model for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), concluding that at recent share prices around $400–$420, investors are essentially acquiring the company’s ambitious Optimus humanoid robot project at no extra cost.
Tesla Optimus is already benefiting investors from a fiscal standpoint, at least that is what Alexander Potter at Piper Sandler, a top Wall Street firm covering the company, says.
Piper Sandler has updated its detailed valuation model for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), concluding that at recent share prices around $400–$420, investors are essentially acquiring the company’s ambitious Optimus humanoid robot project at no extra cost.
Analyst Alexander Potter, in the firm’s latest “Definitive Guide to Investing in Tesla,” built a comprehensive framework covering 17 separate product lines.
This granular approach values Tesla’s core businesses—including electric vehicles, energy storage, Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, in-house insurance, Supercharging network, and a standalone robotaxi operation—at approximately $400 per share, without assigning any value to Optimus or related inference-as-a-service opportunities.
“At $400/share, we think investors can buy Optimus for ‘free,’” Potter stated in the note. Piper Sandler maintained its Overweight rating on Tesla shares and a $500 price target, which implicitly attributes roughly $100 per share to the robot-related businesses— a figure the analyst views as potentially conservative.
The updated model incorporates elements often overlooked by other sell-side analysts, such as detailed forecasts for Tesla’s insurance operations, Supercharger revenue, and a distinct valuation for the robotaxi business separate from FSD software licensing. It also accounts for Tesla’s 2025 CEO compensation plan for the first time.
Potter acknowledged that his estimates for 2026 and 2027 fall below Wall Street consensus, citing factors like declining deliveries from certain discontinued models and reduced regulatory credit income.
However, he expressed limited concern, noting that traditional vehicle delivery metrics are expected to matter less over time as FSD subscriber growth and robotaxi deployment metrics gain prominence. On Optimus specifically, Potter suggested the humanoid robot program, combined with inference services, “arguably will be worth more than Tesla’s other businesses combined,” though the firm has not yet produced formal long-term forecasts for these segments.
Tesla shares have traded near the $400 range in recent sessions, reflecting ongoing investor focus on the company’s autonomous driving progress and expansion into robotics and AI. The Optimus project remains in early development stages, with Tesla aiming to deploy the robots initially for internal factory tasks before broader commercial applications.
This Piper Sandler analysis highlights the growing emphasis among some investors and analysts on Tesla’s long-term technology platform potential beyond its current automotive and energy businesses.
As with any forward-looking valuation, outcomes will depend on execution timelines, technological breakthroughs, regulatory approvals for autonomous systems, and market adoption of humanoid robotics—areas that carry significant uncertainty and execution risk.
The note underscores a common theme in Tesla coverage: differing views on how to quantify emerging high-growth opportunities like robotics within the company’s overall enterprise value. Investors are advised to consider their own risk tolerance and conduct thorough due diligence regarding these speculative elements.
Trump’s invite for Elon just reshuffled Tesla’s big Signature Delivery Event
Tesla launches its solution to rare but relevant Supercharger problem
