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SpaceX highlights Crew Dragon SuperDraco thrusters as explosion investigation nears end

SpaceX published a highlight reel of Crew Dragon's SuperDraco thruster testing on September 12th. (SpaceX)

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SpaceX has published a highlight reel touting “over 700 tests” of Crew Dragon’s SuperDraco abort thrusters at the same time as the company is about to close a failure investigation into a Dragon capsule’s April explosion, pinned primarily on abort-related hardware.

According to a September 6th meeting of NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP), SpaceX has nearly completed the ‘fault tree’ of Crew Dragon’s explosion, a term used to describe the process of analyzing telemetry and ruling out all possible failure modes. Once that tree is complete, the investigation can be finalized and SpaceX can implement all hardware and software changes needed to prevent similar failures from reoccurring. For the time being, this means that a 2019 launch of SpaceX’s inaugural crewed Dragon is almost certainly not in the cards, although early 2020 is still looking promising.

On April 20th, SpaceX was extremely quick to acknowledge that an anomaly had occurred during a planned static fire of flight-proven Crew Dragon capsule C201, recovered just one month prior after a flawless orbital launch debut. Soon after, an extremely low-quality video of a livestream of the static fire attempt was leaked, revealing that the capsule suffered a catastrophic explosion just moments before the ignition of its eight SuperDraco thrusters.

Incredibly, one of Crew Dragon C201’s SuperDraco ‘powerpacks’ (a pair of engines) was not only recovered intact after the explosion but static-fired at SpaceX’s McGregor, TX test facilities. A bit less than three months after the explosion, SpaceX and NASA officials hosted a press conference in July 2019 to discuss preliminary results from their joint Crew Dragon failure investigation. Some work remained to rule out other possibilities but NASA and SpaceX were confident enough to conclude that an exotic interaction between SuperDraco propellant and a leaky titanium valve likely triggered the explosion.

According to ASAP, SpaceX and NASA still have work to do before the investigation can be concluded, describing it as “nearly complete”. Additionally, the ASAP meeting continued what feels like an increasingly myopic focus on SpaceX’s carbon overwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs), used to store high-pressure helium on Falcon 9 and Heavy. COPVs have been partial causes of both of Falcon 9’s two operational failures, explaining NASA’s apparent prioritization of its certification.

Unspecified issues with parachutes were also raised for both Commercial Crew spacecraft, continuing a years-long trend of parachutes and COPVs taking up the majority of ASAP’s attention in public meetings. Boeing and SpaceX continue to test their parachute systems, both well into dozens of distinct tests after something like two years of concerted attempts to satisfy NASA requirements.

SpaceX has already demonstrated a successful orbital launch, reentry, parachute deployment, and splashdown during Crew Dragon’s March 2019 Demo-1 launch, as well as 18 successful Cargo Dragon parachute recoveries in the last seven years. Cargo Dragon did suffer one anomalous splashdown in 2018, but its partially redundant set of chutes still permitted a gentle and intact recovery.

Nevertheless, it appears that SpaceX and Boeing will have to continue performing parachute tests for the indefinite future. Boeing’s next milestone – an uncrewed orbital test flight (OTF) comparable to SpaceX’s Demo-1 mission – is expected to launch no earlier than October 28th according to Russian space industry sources. SpaceX’s next Crew Dragon milestone will be the spacecraft’s in-flight abort (IFA) test, scheduled no earlier than November 2019.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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BREAKING: Tesla launches public Robotaxi rides in Austin with no Safety Monitor

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Tesla has officially launched public Robotaxi rides in Austin, Texas, without a Safety Monitor in the vehicle, marking the first time the company has removed anyone from the vehicle other than the rider.

The Safety Monitor has been present in Tesla Robotaxis in Austin since its launch last June, maintaining safety for passengers and other vehicles, and was placed in the passenger’s seat.

Tesla planned to remove the Safety Monitor at the end of 2025, but it was not quite ready to do so. Now, in January, riders are officially reporting that they are able to hail a ride from a Model Y Robotaxi without anyone in the vehicle:

Tesla started testing this internally late last year and had several employees show that they were riding in the vehicle without anyone else there to intervene in case of an emergency.

Tesla has now expanded that program to the public. It is not active in the entire fleet, but there are a “few unsupervised vehicles mixed in with the broader robotaxi fleet with safety monitors,” Ashok Elluswamy said:

Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing

The Robotaxi program also operates in the California Bay Area, where the fleet is much larger, but Safety Monitors are placed in the driver’s seat and utilize Full Self-Driving, so it is essentially the same as an Uber driver using a Tesla with FSD.

In Austin, the removal of Safety Monitors marks a substantial achievement for Tesla moving forward. Now that it has enough confidence to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis altogether, there are nearly unlimited options for the company in terms of expansion.

While it is hoping to launch the ride-hailing service in more cities across the U.S. this year, this is a much larger development than expansion, at least for now, as it is the first time it is performing driverless rides in Robotaxi anywhere in the world for the public to enjoy.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla Earnings Call: Top 5 questions investors are asking

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla has scheduled its Earnings Call for Q4 and Full Year 2025 for next Wednesday, January 28, at 5:30 p.m. EST, and investors are already preparing to get some answers from executives regarding a wide variety of topics.

The company accepts several questions from retail investors through the platform Say, which then allows shareholders to vote on the best questions.

Tesla does not answer anything regarding future product releases, but they are willing to shed light on current timelines, progress of certain projects, and other plans.

There are five questions that range over a variety of topics, including SpaceX, Full Self-Driving, Robotaxi, and Optimus, which are currently in the lead to be asked and potentially answered by Elon Musk and other Tesla executives:

SpaceX IPO is coming, CEO Elon Musk confirms

  1. You once said: Loyalty deserves loyalty. Will long-term Tesla shareholders still be prioritized if SpaceX does an IPO?
    1. Our Take – With a lot of speculation regarding an incoming SpaceX IPO, Tesla investors, especially long-term ones, should be able to benefit from an early opportunity to purchase shares. This has been discussed endlessly over the past year, and we must be getting close to it.
  2. When is FSD going to be 100% unsupervised?
    1. Our Take – Musk said today that this is essentially a solved problem, and it could be available in the U.S. by the end of this year.
  3. What is the current bottleneck to increase Robotaxi deployment & personal use unsupervised FSD? The safety/performance of the most recent models or people to monitor robots, robotaxis, in-car, or remotely? Or something else?
    1. Our Take – The bottleneck seems to be based on data, which Musk said Tesla needs 10 billion miles of data to achieve unsupervised FSD. Once that happens, regulatory issues will be what hold things up from moving forward.
  4. Regarding Optimus, could you share the current number of units deployed in Tesla factories and actively performing production tasks? What specific roles or operations are they handling, and how has their integration impacted factory efficiency or output?
    1. Our Take – Optimus is going to have a larger role in factories moving forward, and later this year, they will have larger responsibilities.
  5. Can you please tie purchased FSD to our owner accounts vs. locked to the car? This will help us enjoy it in any Tesla we drive/buy and reward us for hanging in so long, some of us since 2017.
    1. Our Take – This is a good one and should get us some additional information on the FSD transfer plans and Subscription-only model that Tesla will adopt soon.

Tesla will have its Earnings Call on Wednesday, January 28.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk shares incredible detail about Tesla Cybercab efficiency

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(Credit: Tesla North America | X)

Elon Musk shared an incredible detail about Tesla Cybercab’s potential efficiency, as the company has hinted in the past that it could be one of the most affordable vehicles to operate from a per-mile basis.

ARK Invest released a report recently that shed some light on the potential incremental cost per mile of various Robotaxis that will be available on the market in the coming years.

The Cybercab, which is detailed for the year 2030, has an exceptionally low cost of operation, which is something Tesla revealed when it unveiled the vehicle a year and a half ago at the “We, Robot” event in Los Angeles.

Musk said on numerous occasions that Tesla plans to hit the $0.20 cents per mile mark with the Cybercab, describing a “clear path” to achieving that figure and emphasizing it is the “full considered” cost, which would include energy, maintenance, cleaning, depreciation, and insurance.

ARK’s report showed that the Cybercab would be roughly half the cost of the Waymo 6th Gen Robotaxi in 2030, as that would come in at around $0.40 per mile all in. Cybercab, at scale, would be at $0.20.

Credit: ARK Invest

This would be a dramatic decrease in the cost of operation for Tesla, and the savings would then be passed on to customers who choose to utilize the ride-sharing service for their own transportation needs.

The U.S. average cost of new vehicle ownership is about $0.77 per mile, according to AAA. Meanwhile, Uber and Lyft rideshares often cost between $1 and $4 per mile, while Waymo can cost between $0.60 and $1 or more per mile, according to some estimates.

Tesla’s engineering has been the true driver of these cost efficiencies, and its focus on creating a vehicle that is as cost-effective to operate as possible is truly going to pay off as the vehicle begins to scale. Tesla wants to get the Cybercab to about 5.5-6 miles per kWh, which has been discussed with prototypes.

Additionally, fewer parts due to the umboxed manufacturing process, a lower initial cost, and eliminating the need to pay humans for their labor would also contribute to a cheaper operational cost overall. While aspirational, all of the ingredients for this to be a real goal are there.

It may take some time as Tesla needs to hammer the manufacturing processes, and Musk has said there will be growing pains early. This week, he said regarding the early production efforts:

“…initial production is always very slow and follows an S-curve. The speed of production ramp is inversely proportionate to how many new parts and steps there are. For Cybercab and Optimus, almost everything is new, so the early production rate will be agonizingly slow, but eventually end up being insanely fast.”

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