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SpaceX to nearly double fleet of reusable Dragon spacecraft by end of 2022

SpaceX's current fleet of four reusable Dragon spacecraft is set to double by mid-to-late 2022. (NASA/Mike Hopkins/ESA/Thomas Pesquet)

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Comments from NASA and SpaceX officials during a briefing ahead of Crew Dragon’s third operational astronaut launch have offered a more detailed picture of the fleet of reusable Dragon spacecraft the company plans to build and cycle to support NASA missions.

As part of the briefing, SpaceX Director of Dragon Mission Management Sarah Walker revealed that NASA’s imminent Crew-3 mission will debut a new Crew Dragon capsule (likely C210), which will be carried into space on top of once-flown Falcon 9 booster B1067. B1067 debuted on June 3rd, 2021, sending SpaceX’s second upgraded Cargo Dragon spacecraft on its way to the International Space Station (ISS) before returning to Earth and sticking a landing on drone ship Of Course I Still Love You. While far from breaking SpaceX’s own turnaround records, B1067’s Crew-3 launch will be the second time NASA has flown astronauts on a flight-proven commercial rocket.

SpaceX flew NASA astronauts on a flight-proven booster (Falcon 9 B1062) for the first time in April 2021 as part of Crew-2 – Dragon’s second operational crew launch and first crew ‘rotation.’ Crew-2’s Crew Dragon was also flight-proven, having supported SpaceX’s inaugural Demo-2 astronaut launch in mid-2020 – perhaps an even more impressive feat.

Five months later, SpaceX launched the world’s first all-private group of astronauts as part of a primarily philanthropic mission known as Inspiration4. Once again, a flight-proven booster launched an orbit-proven Crew Dragon capsule carrying four astronauts, pushing human-rated reusability even further with the first use of a twice-flown Falcon 9 on a crewed mission.

Crew-3 will thus continue the brand new trend of launching professional NASA and international astronauts on flight-proven SpaceX rockets. Scheduled to lift off no earlier than 2:43 am EDT (06:43 UTC) on Saturday, October 30th, a successful launch will mean that SpaceX has launched more crewed Dragons on flight-proven Falcon 9s than on new boosters – and despite the fact that the company completed its first astronaut launch ever less than a year and a half ago.

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B1067’s June 2021 launch debut also carried new Cargo Dragon 2 capsule C209 to orbit. (Richard Angle)

While Crew-3 won’t be the third crewed launch of a flight-proven Dragon, it will still play the important role of debuting a new vehicle as SpaceX works to assemble a fleet of reusable, orbital spacecraft. The spacecraft – likely Dragon 2 Capsule #10 (C210) – will be the third Crew Dragon to join SpaceX’s fleet of two operational crew capsules, which currently includes C206 (Endeavor) and C207 (Resilience). SpaceX’s Walker further confirmed that Crew-4 – recently scheduled to launch NET April 2022 – will also debut a new Crew Dragon capsule, growing the company’s crew capsule fleet to four vehicles by mid-2022.

Each certified to fly at least five NASA missions apiece, those four spacecraft should be enough to sate at least a few years of SpaceX’s near-term Crew Dragon launch demand. If an extended certification beyond five flights is impossible or if the company continues to fly public and private astronauts on Dragon well into the mid to late 2020s, however, it’s possible that several more capsules will be needed. But in theory, if Boeing’s Starliner finally reaches operational readiness in 2023 and NASA continues to operate the ISS to 2030 and beyond, SpaceX will only be tasked with supporting one NASA Crew Dragon launch annually by 2023.

Crew Dragon capsule C207 on its first orbital mission, January 2021. (NASA)
Crew Dragon Endeavour’s (C206) second ISS arrival, April 2021. (NASA)
Cargo Dragon 2 capsule C208 approaches the ISS for the second time, August 2021. (Thomas Pesquet/ESA)
Cargo Dragon 2 capsule C209, July 2021. (NASA/ESA – Thomas Pesquet)

On the uncrewed side of things, Walker also revealed that SpaceX will debut at least one more new Cargo Dragon 2 spacecraft in 2022, raising the company’s uncrewed Dragon fleet to four capsules strong. As long as the ISS remains operational, SpaceX will likely continue to deliver cargo biannually, requiring around 12-18 more Cargo Dragon launches between now and 2030. It’s possible that Starship will quickly replace Dragon as soon as it’s operational and NASA-certified for routine crew and cargo missions, but that milestone is several years away at best, likely ensuring that Dragon will continue to operate for at least the next 5-10 years.

In the meantime, SpaceX’s fleet of reusable Dragon spacecraft looks set to almost double from four to seven capsules by Q4 2022.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla creates clever solution to simplify and improve its Service

Raj Jegannathan, a Vice President of IT/AI-Infra, Apps, Infosec, and Vehicle Service Operations, revealed that Tesla has started a small pilot program at a few service locations to combat this issue.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has created a clever solution to simplify and improve its Service. Tesla performs most of the services that are needed on its vehicles at its company-owned Service Centers.

However, service has been a weak point of the company, as some regions have fewer Service Centers than others. This can cause long wait times for Tesla owners in some parts of the country.

There are also instances where customers do not agree with what Tesla is saying about their vehicle. In fact, one instance that revealed this new change Tesla is making to its Service was precisely that.

One owner posted on X that his vehicle’s battery seal had failed after a recall was issued. Tesla insurance and Tesla Service both did not assist, and it took CEO Elon Musk stepping in to get the issue resolved:

Another owner suggested there should be a more streamlined communications process between the customer and the Service Center, a solution that has been missing.

Raj Jegannathan, a Vice President of IT/AI-Infra, Apps, Infosec, and Vehicle Service Operations, revealed that Tesla has started a small pilot program at a few service locations to combat this issue.

Elon Musk wants Tesla Service to fix two-thirds of cars in the same day

Jegannathan said that Tesla has started to share local and regional leader contact information so customers have the ability to reach out when they have complaints or disagree with warranty claims, changes in estimates, or initial diagnostics.

It is available in a handful of locations already, and Jegannathan said that once abuse guardrails are built, this will expand to all locations:

This would be a major improvement in the Service portion of Tesla’s business. There are common disagreements between Service and customers, specifically when Service’s suggestions don’t align with the customer’s beliefs.

When it comes to things like a warranty claim, these issues are not really up for interpretation. Instead, the repairs should be made. If there is a misunderstanding on Service’s side, a simple message from the customer could have resolved the issue. That’s basically what happened here.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla gets its best analysis from Morgan Stanley as ‘it’s all about to change’

He maintained its ‘Overweight’ rating and the $410 price target Morgan Stanley had on the stock.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla has gotten perhaps its best analysis from Morgan Stanley in quite some time, as the Wall Street firm claims that “it’s all about to change.”

That phrase could be used for both the company’s status and the world in general.

Analyst Adam Jonas said in a new note on Thursday to investors that Tesla could be one of the major winners in terms of the global transition from what it is now to what it will be.

He describes the global shift that will occur over the next few years:

“Have you interacted with a robot today? Have you even seen a robot today? No? Well, take a mental picture because it’s all about to change. When we meet someone who has never been in a Waymo or a Tesla Cybercab (which is most people), we frequently see a wince and a response such as ‘I’m not sure I’d feel comfortable getting in a car without a driver.’ We imagine going back in time to 1903 and asking people if they’d feel comfortable in an airplane.'”

The same technological revolutions that have occurred over the past 150 years will continue to occur again and again. We are on the verge of another, Jonas believes, as companies like Tesla are working on artificial intelligence tech, which includes changing the way we look at things like transportation and labor.

Jonas includes an interesting tidbit in his note about how humanoid robots could change wages, and how it could work into the advantage of Tesla, especially as it is developing its own Optimus robot:

“We estimate 1 humanoid robot at $5/hour can do the work of 2 humans at $25/hour, generating an NPV of approximately $200k/humanoid. 1 robot shaped car can potentially drive down cost/mile of a ride share vehicle to <$0.20 mile (1/10th human-driven ride-share).”

Jonas sees Tesla as a key player in how AI will impact things like manufacturing and various automotive industries, and he believes there is long-term potential for AI, robomobility, and even autonomous eVTOL platforms.

Tesla stock: Morgan Stanley says eVTOL is calling Elon Musk for new chapter

He maintained its ‘Overweight’ rating and the $410 price target Morgan Stanley had on the stock.

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Elon Musk

Tesla expands Robotaxi program in Austin to new riders

Tesla has been expanding both the rider group and the geofence in Austin slowly, making sure to prioritize safety and avoid any major events with the early rollout.

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Credit: @TerrapinTerpene/X

Tesla is expanding its Robotaxi program in Austin, Texas, as several people have received invitations to participate and take rides.

Tesla first launched the Robotaxi platform on June 22. It invited a handful of people to participate in the first-ever public rides. We were lucky enough to get an invitation, and our permissions have been expanded in the Bay Area pilot program as well.

The group was small and consisted of big names in the Tesla community. It expanded and is continuing to offer these exclusive invitations to notable members of the Tesla community.

There have been fewer than five subsequent invitations after the first group’s were sent in late June:

Tesla has been expanding both the rider group and the geofence in Austin slowly, making sure to prioritize safety and avoid any major events with the early rollout.

Tesla’s new Robotaxi geofence shape is an FU by Elon Musk to the competition

“We are being very cautious. We do not want to take any chances, so we are going to go cautiously. But the service areas and the number of vehicles in operation will increase at a hyper-exponential rate,” CEO Elon Musk said during the Q2 Earnings Call.

Eventually, the Robotaxi platform will not require an invite, and it will operate without geofences. Musk believes Tesla can get there within three or six months, and plans to have at least half of the U.S. population with access to a Robotaxi by the end of the year:

“I think we will probably have autonomous ride-hailing in probably half the population of the U.S. by the end of the year. That’s at least our goal, subject to regulatory approvals. I think we will technically be able to do it. Assuming we have regulatory approvals, it’s probably addressing half the population of the U.S. by the end of the year.”

Tesla plans to have regulatory approval in Nevada, Arizona, and Florida sooner than in other states.

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