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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk forecasts a dozen Starship launches next year

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3 years ago

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CEO Elon Musk has provided a small update on SpaceX’s next-generation Starship rocket in a brief statement to and Q&A with the board of the US National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine.

While it’s now been more than two years since Musk last gave a proper presentation on the Starship program, a number of excellent questions from board members still managed to extract a handful of new details about the fully reusable rocket, which the SpaceX CEO says aims to “be a generalized transport mechanism for the [entire] solar system.” According to Musk, though, the most pressing near-term issues facing SpaceX are more down to Earth.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLydXZOo4eA

Reiterated several times in his comments to the National Academies, Musk says that the current limiting factor for Starship is securing regulatory approvals from the FAA for the rocket’s first orbital test flights, which SpaceX and Musk initially hoped would begin as early as mid-2021. Targets from July to November 2021 have since come and gone, while SpaceX has only begun to make concerted progress towards Starship’s first orbital launch in the last two or so months. Almost two months after its first rollout, Starship S20 – the first orbital-class prototype – began integrated testing, completing ambient and cryogenic proof tests in late September and its first Raptor preburner and static fire tests in the second half of October.

Most recently, after almost a month spent inactive at SpaceX’s Starbase test facilities, Starship S20 fired up all six of its Raptor engines – the first test of its kind and a major milestone for the program. Save for the completion of some relatively simple closeout tasks, Starship S20 is now more or less qualified for flight after its successful static fire. That leaves Super Heavy Booster 4 (B4) – the first stage meant to carry Ship 20 into space – up next on SpaceX’s South Texas testing docket after almost four agonizing months spent sitting, untested, at various Starbase facilities.

Musk says that SpaceX preparing to complete “a bunch of tests in December” with the implication that those tests likely include the first full Super Heavy wet dress rehearsal (WDR) with thousands of tons of live propellant and the first several booster static fire tests. Recently refitted with 29 Raptor engines for the third time in four months, it appears that SpaceX is finally close to finishing Super Heavy B4 to a point that will allow the booster to begin integrated testing. Through Super Heavy B3, which completed testing this summer, SpaceX thankfully already knows that the basic booster design is a structurally sound pressure vessel with plumbing and systems capable of surviving a three-Raptor static fire.

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Super Heavy B3 completed a very limited test campaign in July 2021. (SpaceX)

Still, that’s barely more than 10% of the total number of engines Super Heavy will need operational to send Starship to orbit. After months at the pad, SpaceX is finally closing out Booster 4’s aft section and installing a basic heat shield around its 29 Raptor engines, which will produce up to ~5400 metric tons (~12M lbf) of thrust at liftoff – more than any other rocket in history. Following Starship S20’s recent success, SpaceX has now fired six Raptors simultaneously and in close proximity without issue. However, Super Heavy B4 will have to fire 29 engines packed into roughly the same amount of space. No other liquid rocket stage in history has a more densely-packed thrust section, averaging at least 85 tons of thrust per square meter (~125 psi) of available engine space.

It’s thus likely that SpaceX will split Super Heavy B4’s first static fire campaign into several different parts, possibly involving seperate tests of the center cluster of nine Raptor Center (RC) engines and outer ring of 20 Raptor Boost (RB) engines before firing up all 29 together. Even if that testing is completed without issue on the first attempts, SpaceX will still likely want to perform a full wet dress rehearsal – and possibly even another 29-engine static fire – with Ship 20 installed on top of Booster 4.

Musk also believes that Starbase’s first orbital launch site will be complete as early as “later this month” – essential for full booster testing. Once all testing is complete, Musk says Starship, Super Heavy, and Starbase should be ready for their first orbital launch attempt as early as January or February 2022. Of course, that launch is entirely contingent upon FAA environmental approval and launch licensing, the former still incomplete and the latter unable to proceed until the former is complete. If the FAA reaches a favorable conclusion, meets its recently-announced target of December 31st to complete Starbase’s environmental review, and grants SpaceX a new launch license just days or a few weeks later, a January-February launch isn’t out of the question.

Looking further into 2022, Musk also revealed that he hopes SpaceX will complete “a dozen [Starship] launches” next year – incredibly ambitious by any measure. There isn’t a rocket in history that’s achieved double-digit launches in the same year as its debut. More importantly, even if the FAA environmental review SpaceX is in the middle of ends with the best possible outcome for Starship, it limits the company to either 3, 5, or 8 (it’s somewhat ambiguous) orbital launch attempts per year. Still, even a ‘mere’ three orbital Starship launch attempts in 2022 would be an incredible acheivement for SpaceX – let alone five, or Musk’s forecast of a dozen.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla stores continue to face anti-Musk protests

Scenes from a protest outside of Tesla’s store in Loveland, Colorado.

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8 hours ago

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March 15, 2025

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Tesla stores have been the target of widespread protests and vandalism in recent weeks, after Elon Musk made a controversial gesture in January, and as he and the Trump administration’s newly created government efficiency division continues to gut federal agencies.

On Saturday, I went to the Tesla store in Loveland, Colorado, where demonstrators were already protesting upon my arrival at roughly 12:45 p.m. MT.  Walking up to the protest, I could see scattered groups of demonstrators lined up along about two blocks, spanning from the Tesla store to a nearby intersection and Sprouts location. One protestor said he had counted about 230 people at around 1:00 p.m. MT.

The protest felt generally peaceful, with cars driving by and honking, and demonstrators leaving a large space between the front of the Tesla store and the sidewalk, easily allowing workers and customers to go in and out.

You can see a few videos and photos from the site below, along with some of the responses I got from protestors and a prospective customer.

READ MORE ON TESLA PROTESTS AND VANDALISM:

I spoke to about a dozen protestors about what they were protesting against. Most said they were there to condemn Musk’s recent federal worker and program cuts with the Trump administration, his performance of what some said resembled a Nazi salute at Trump’s inauguration ceremony in January, or the administration’s recent attacks against transgender and queer individuals.

One protestor, Elsa, identified as a former Republican and said she was “highly concerned that our Constitution is being ignored,” especially with regards to the three branches of government and the system of checks and balances.

“It surprises me that, even if you voted for Trump, or you believe in capitalism, which, I didn’t vote for Trump, but I do believe in capitalism — I’m a former Republican, I was a Republican for most of my life — but it’s dangerous to have power rest in a handful of ultra-wealthy people,” Elsa said.

“And our whole country needs to realize that,” she adds. “This to me is not even Republican or Democrat at this point.”

Instead, she says it now comes down to whether people want to give billionaires huge tax breaks, or to use that money to support a range of groups in the U.S., including those who have social security benefits, are veterans, or are 9/11 survivors seeking cancer treatments, as a few examples.

Another protestor, Mary, said she was taking part in the demonstration “because she loves this country and democracy,” adding that she wanted to help preserve democracy for her grandchildren.

Still another protestor, Bryan, said that they were protesting because of the Trump administration and Musk’s attempts to erase transgender, non-binary, and queer people from history, drawing comparisons to the rise of fascism in Nazi Germany, where early human rights violations were lodged against gay and queer communities.

“I’m here because I have to be,” Bryan said. “I’m afraid of the future.”

Yet another person and his family were holding Ukraine flags, saying that they were protesting for a wide range of reasons, but especially for Trump’s recent meeting with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Musk’s claims that the top Ukrainian executive was to blame for what he has called a “forever war.”

While most protestors appeared to be generally friendly, especially with each other, I did hear a few exchanges between demonstrators and those with other opinions. While I heard more cars honking throughout the experience, seemingly in support of the protests, I also noticed a few from which passengers yelled things like “Go Trump.”

“Direct action, we need to stop these fascists with direct action,” one protestor yelled in response.

Additionally, I also talked to a prospective customer, Kristy, who was there for a test drive and said she had a negative experience with the protestors.

“I was test driving a Tesla, and as we pulled in and parked right here, this black one, these people right here in the middle yelled at me, ‘Hope you’re turning in your f*cking Nazi car,’ and I said ‘F*ck you,’” Kristy explained.

“And they’re like ‘F*ck you too, you’re a Nazi, f*cking Nazi lovers.’ And so, they’re just yelling racial slurs at me, and I’m far from a Nazi.”

Tesla store advisers declined to comment on the protests, and so did Loveland police.

Other Saturday protest footage from Tesla stores in California, Texas, and New York

The Loveland Tesla store has also been the site of repeated attacks in recent weeks, with authorities on Friday making a second arrest following multiple incidents. You can see the Department’s press release for the arrest below.

The protest was also part of widespread demonstrations on Saturday, and it’s just the latest in actions targeting Musk’s electric vehicle (EV) company, some of which have included acts of vandalism, graffiti, arson, and even the use of weapons on Tesla storefronts.

Multiple other protests were also captured in footage on Saturday, including one in Santa Rosa, California, as shared by the San Francisco Chronicle, and another attended by conspiracy theorist Alex Jones in Austin, Texas. Still another was captured in New York City, and you can see footage from each of these protests below.

Tesla vandalism cases under investigation by FBI Seattle

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Musk sets a date for Starship trip to Mars with Optimus on board

Optimus could be the first humanoid to make it to Mars, and Musk has set a date for when he thinks it’ll happen.

Published

14 hours ago

on

March 15, 2025

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Credit: SpaceX

Elon Musk has shared when he expects to take Starship to Mars for its first uncrewed mission, and he also says Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot will be on board for the flight.

On Friday, Musk wrote on X that SpaceX’s reusable Starship rocket will take Optimus to Mars at the end of 2026, with human landings expected to commence a few years later.

“Starship departs for Mars at the end of next year, carrying Optimus,” Musk said. “If those landings go well, then human landings may start as soon as 2029, although 2031 is more likely.”

Last year, the SpaceX and Tesla head also expectations that SpaceX would be able to begin uncrewed launches in 2016, with early launches including both Optimus and a Cybertruck unit.

Musk also followed up the announcement with a post on X on Saturday morning, noting that he expects SpaceX to launch more than 90 percent of Earth’s payload mass to orbit this year. Meanwhile, he says China will make up just around 5 percent, while the rest of the world, including other parts of America, would also make up just 5 percent.

He also predicted that that number would go up even further to nearly 100 percent, once SpaceX’s reusable rocket is being launched more frequently.

“When Starship is launching at high rate, SpaceX will probably carry >99 percent of Earth’s payload mass to orbit. This is necessary to make Mars a self-sustaining civilization,” Musk added.

READ MORE ABOUT SPACEX’S STARSHIP: Texas awards SpaceX $17.3M grant to expand Bastrop tech hub

To be sure, Musk has been known to make ambitious claims about when his companies’ products would achieve certain milestones. For example, Musk predicted in 2018 that SpaceX could launch a rocket to Mars with humans aboard by 2024, though SpaceX only began testing the company’s reusable Starship in 2023.

Still, the company has been routinely testing Starship since then, and with increasing frequency, and in October, SpaceX performed the first catch of the Starship’s Super Heavy booster after liftoff to demonstrate the concept that a reusable rocket could be possible. In a launch earlier this month, SpaceX again successfully caught the Super Heavy Booster, though it lost the upper stage to a “rapid unscheduled disassembly,” effectively meaning that it had exploded in air and showered surrounding areas with rocket parts.

The explosion was the second consecutive launch in which debris from Starship reigned down, highlighting the continued importance of testing as SpaceX aims to make the rocket a viable product for reusable space travel.

On Friday, SpaceX also launched its Starliner spacecraft to the International Space Station (ISS) to rescue astronauts that have been stuck on the orbital craft, after a Boeing launch was originally intended to bring them back to Earth. While SpaceX attempted to rescue the two astronauts in September, issues with the Starliner craft’s thrusters discovered upon arrival made NASA hold off on approving the return mission.

SpaceX completes a new first with recent Falcon 9 launch

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U.S. AG Pam Bondi: Tesla Molotov attack suspect facing up to 20 years in prison

The U.S. Attorney General confirmed that a Tesla attacker, who threw Molotov cocktails at a store, is now facing up to 20 years in prison.

Published

1 day ago

on

March 14, 2025

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The White House, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
President Donald J. Trump purchases a Tesla on the South Lawn, Tuesday, March 11, 2025. (Official White House Photo by Molly Riley)

It appears that an anti-Tesla activist who is suspected of throwing Molotov cocktails at one of the electric vehicle maker’s stores is now looking at a potentially long prison sentence. 

This is, at least, as per United States Attorney General Pam Bondi, who recently shared her insights in a FOX News segment.

Tesla Attacks and Trump Warning

Tesla locations and vehicles have been subjected to numerous attacks as of late, from stores being shot up to vehicles being vandalized and set on fire in suspected arson incidents. In one case, a Tesla store in Salem, Oregon, was attacked with Molotov cocktails.

President Donald Trump has issued a stern warning to people attacking Teslas, stating that he considers such actions as domestic terrorism. While addressing the issue, Trump warned that anyone caught deliberately harming Tesla will be going through “hell.”

Attorney General’s Update

During a recent FOX News segment, US Attorney General Pam Bondi reiterated that anyone targeting others over political beliefs would be caught and punished accordingly. She highlighted that investigations are underway to find out who is behind the violent actions, and she also confirmed that a Tesla attacker, who threw Molotov cocktails at a store, is now facing up to 20 years in prison.

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“If you targeted someone, if you went after someone because of their political affiliation, we will be investigating you. We will be looking at you, because that’s the weaponization, and it has to stop. For instance, look what they’re continuing to do to Elon Musk. They are targeting Tesla dealerships, the stations where you charge a Tesla. They’re vandalizing cars. I have already directed an investigation be opened to see how this is being funded. Who is behind this? 

“We have people we’re locking up on that. We have someone in jail right now from one of the dealerships. They threw a Molotov cocktail through a dealership. They’re looking at up to 20 years in prison. So, if you’re going to touch a Tesla, go to a dealership, or do anything, you better watch out, because we’re coming after you. And if you’re funding this, we’re coming after you. We’re going to find out who you are,” Bondi stated.

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