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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk lays out Starship’s path to orbit with sights set on 2020 debut

Starship heads to orbit atop a Super Heavy booster. (SpaceX)

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6 years ago

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Speaking on September 28th, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk sketched out a fairly detailed picture of Starship’s path to orbit, from the first flight of the first full-scale prototype to the spacecraft’s inaugural orbital launch atop a Super Heavy booster.

Incredibly, Musk was persistent with claims that he has challenged SpaceX’s Starship teams to conduct the next-generation rocket’s first orbital launch within six months, drawing a line in the sand around April 1st, 2020 (?). How, then, does the SpaceX CEO foresee the next year or so playing out?

A whole lotta ‘Ships

As is the company’s signature, Musk confirmed that the Starship development program will continue to be highly distributed, hardware-rich, and focused on an iterative and continuous process of learning by doing. Starhopper is perhaps the best emblem of this methodology, defying almost every conceivable aerospace industry norm to successfully build and repeatedly fly what was essentially a rocket built outside by water tower welders.

Starhopper may have scarcely been meant to fly at all, serving almost entirely as a proof of concept and learning experience, but Musk strongly suggested that future Starship prototypes will replicate its highly iterative, learning-on-the-job approach to development. In short, much like SpaceX has nearly completed Starship Mk1 (and Mk2) from scratch in less than six months, SpaceX’s development strategy involves building a lot of Starship prototypes as quickly as possible.

Specifically, Elon Musk stated – in his opinion – that SpaceX will likely attempt its first orbital Starship-Super Heavy launch immediately after Starship Mk1’s first flight attempt, a suborbital launch to ~20 km (12.5 mi). Assuming that test – far more critical than any of Starhopper’s travails – is successful, the very next Starship flight could be an orbital launch attempt.

Starship Mk1 is pictured here on September 27th, less than half a day after technicians stacked the prototype’s two halves. (Teslarati – Eric Ralph)

First and foremost, Musk was pretty clear that the rough schedule he laid out was a “stream of consciousness”. Indeed, the eccentric CEO contradicted (or updated) himself over the course of answering the same question, stating that “[SpaceX] would fly to orbit with [Starship] Mk3” before saying that that it would actually be “Mk4 or Mk5”. Musk is still undoubtedly set on announcing gobsmackingly ambitious schedules for his projects, but it’s worth noting just how serious he seemed while discussing Starship’s development timeline.

He noted that SpaceX will likely “have [Starship] Mk2 built within a couple of months – or less”, referring to the second prototype currently in the late stages of integration at the company’s similar Cocoa, FL facilities. Additionally, Musk indicated that Starship Mk3 – yet to begin construction in Boca Chica – could be finished as few three months from now (around the start of 2020), with Starship Mk4 – to be built in Florida – could be just one to two months behind (NET Feb/March 2020). Correcting his previous statement, whether intentional or not, Musk also added that SpaceX’s first orbital Starship launch attempt would likely involve either the Mk4 or Mk5 prototype and occur “less than six months from now”.

As a slight consolation to the eyewateringly ambitious timeline he laid out, Musk qualified his “six months to orbit” target by acknowledging that it would only be achievable “provided the rate of design and manufacturing improvement continues to be exponential”. If that remains the case, as he believes it has been over the last six or so months, then SpaceX could be ready for the first orbital Starship launch attempt as few as 6-9 months from now – sometime in the first half of 2020.

A lot will undoubtedly have to go very right for that to remain anywhere within the realm of plausibility. This includes the rapid maturation of Starship’s Raptor engine and vacuum-optimized variant, the successful completion of Starship Mk1’s 20km flight test, the assembly and static fire of the first Super Heavy booster(s), the construction of brand new orbital launch facilities, and the FAA’s approval of all aforementioned flight operations.

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Needless to say, the odds are heavily stacked against Musk’s goal of reaching orbit within six months. There is undoubtedly a chance that SpaceX can pull it off, even if success would essentially involve constructing a bridge while driving off a cliff. However, the most important thing to note is that even if Elon Musk is a factor of 1.5, 2, 3, or even 4 times off and Starship reaches orbit for the first time 12 or 18 or 24 months from now, it will still have been an incredibly brisk period of development for a rocket as large, high-performance, and ambitious as Starship/Super Heavy.

It should also be made clear that, while it’s utterly beyond the present capabilities of NASA and other space agencies/companies of the 21st century, Saturn V went from paper to its first orbital launch in just five years. Depending on how one perceives Starship development, it could be said that SpaceX began development – particularly marked by Raptor engine prototype testing – as early as 2016. Suffice it to say that it’s far from impossible that Starship’s first orbital launch will happen next year, even if the challenges SpaceX faces are immense.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla Cybercab sightings on public roads are becoming more frequent

After it was unveiled a year ago by Tesla, the company has made some pretty drastic jumps in progress in terms of the Cybercab, but a recent development has truly pushed fans of the company to think it is probably going to be available soon.

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3 hours ago

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November 6, 2025

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Credit: Petersen Museum

Tesla Cybercab sightings on public roads are becoming much more frequent, and they all are pointing to one thing: imminent production.

The Tesla Cybercab is the company’s vehicle developed for fully autonomous travel, as it will be manufactured without a steering wheel or pedals, according to CEO Elon Musk.

Tesla Robotaxi Cybercab: Seats, price, special features, release date, and more

After it was unveiled a year ago by Tesla, the company has made some pretty drastic jumps in progress in terms of the Cybercab, but a recent development has truly pushed fans of the company to think it is probably going to be available soon.

Last week, we reported on the first Cybercab sighting when the vehicle was finally being tested on public roads. The spotting was not a one-time deal, as we are now seeing many more sightings on public roads:

The first spotting was in Palo Alto, just a few blocks from Tesla’s Engineering Headquarters in Los Altos. This second sighting appears to be relatively close to that first spotting, and it seems unlikely Tesla would be putting it on roads much further than that.

The public on-road testing of the Cybercab marks a major milestone in the entire project for Tesla. These early sightings and testing phases are usually followed by a lot of speculation about when the vehicle could end up in the hands of customers.

However, Tesla has already put a definitive date on when Cybercab production will begin, as Elon Musk said during the Q3 Earnings Call that it would roll off production lines in Q2 of next year.

But the speculation regarding the Cybercab is slightly different than other vehicles because Tesla has been developing it for fully autonomous travel; it’s not meant to be driven by humans but instead by software and the company’s Full Self-Driving suite.

Despite the vehicle being spotted with a steering wheel and pedals in the recent sightings, Musk has maintained that the Cybercab will not be developed with typical controls for a human. He recently confirmed this, and it does not seem the company is willing to veer too much from its plans for an autonomous car.

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Tesla Model Y Performance is rapidly moving toward customer deliveries

New drone images from noted drone operator and Gigafactory Texas observer Joe Tegtmeyer show Tesla is moving forward quickly in terms of its progress in producing the new Model Y Performance.

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4 hours ago

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November 6, 2025

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has rapidly progressed in the production of its most anticipated Model Y trim level: the Model Y Performance.

New drone images from noted drone operator and Gigafactory Texas observer Joe Tegtmeyer show Tesla is moving forward quickly in terms of its progress in producing the new Model Y Performance.

The vehicle is being spotted more frequently at the factory located just outside of Austin, with what appears to be the first units rolling out to outbound lots:

In the United States, Tesla unveiled the Model Y Performance on September 30, the newest iteration of the fastest trim level of the best-selling car in the world for the past two years. It was launched on the very last day of the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit in the United States.

It featured a handful of performance improvements, including a 0-60 MPH acceleration rate of 3.3 seconds, a trim from the 3.5 seconds the 2025 version offered.

Additionally, the range has gone from 277 miles to 308 miles, a notable improvement in terms of how far it can travel on a charge.

There are also a handful of hardware changes that Tesla made to improve its aerodynamic performance, which all likely can be attributed to the boost in speed and acceleration, as well as range.

The vehicle was initially launched in Europe, which was not surprising, especially as Tesla was testing the new Performance trim at the famed Nurburgring in Germany.

Deliveries are currently slated for late November, but some orders are getting projections of mid-December for their Model Y Performance, which would help Tesla bolster its end-of-year delivery figures and follow up on an extremely bullish finish to Q3, which was the company’s strongest performance in history.

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Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey endorses Elon Musk Tesla pay package

Dorsey framed the pay package as an engineering and governance crossroads for Tesla.

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5 hours ago

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November 6, 2025

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Twitter co-founder and Square CEO Jack Dorsey has publicly backed Elon Musk’s leadership ahead of Tesla’s pivotal shareholder vote, which is expected to be decided later today at the company’s 2025 annual meeting. 

Dorsey framed the pay package as an engineering and governance crossroads for Tesla.

Dorsey’s public nod framed as an engineering defense of Musk

In a post on X, Dorsey weighed in on Tesla’s post about being in a “critical inflection point.” As per the Twitter-co-founder, the vote on Musk’s 2025 performance award is not about compensation. Instead, it’s about ensuring the path for the company’s engineering in the coming years. 

“This is not about compensation. it’s about ensuring a principled (and exciting!) engineering approach to the company’s future,” Dorsey wrote on his post, later stating that users of Cash app with TSLA shares would be able to vote for the CEO’s proposed 2025 performance award. 

Elon Musk appreciated Dorsey’s endorsement, responding to the Twitter co-founder’s post with a heart emoji. Musk has been pretty thankful for the support for is fellow tech executives, also thanking Michael Dell recently, who also advocated for its proposed 2025 performance award.

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Musk’s support

While Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award has received opposition from proxy advisors such as Glass Lewis and ISS, it has received quite a lot of support from longtime bulls such as ARK Invest, and, more recently, Schwab Asset Management following calls from TSLA retail shareholders. 

“Schwab Asset Management’s approach to voting on proxy matters is thorough and deliberate. We utilize a structured process that focuses on protecting and promoting shareholder value. We apply our own internal guidelines and do not rely on recommendations from Glass Lewis or ISS. In accordance with this process, Schwab Asset Management intends to vote in favor of the 2025 CEO performance award proposal. We firmly believe that supporting this proposal aligns both management and shareholder interests, ensuring the best outcome for all parties involved,” Charles Schwab told Teslarati.

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