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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk lays out Starship’s path to orbit with sights set on 2020 debut
Speaking on September 28th, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk sketched out a fairly detailed picture of Starship’s path to orbit, from the first flight of the first full-scale prototype to the spacecraft’s inaugural orbital launch atop a Super Heavy booster.
Incredibly, Musk was persistent with claims that he has challenged SpaceX’s Starship teams to conduct the next-generation rocket’s first orbital launch within six months, drawing a line in the sand around April 1st, 2020 (?). How, then, does the SpaceX CEO foresee the next year or so playing out?
A whole lotta ‘Ships
As is the company’s signature, Musk confirmed that the Starship development program will continue to be highly distributed, hardware-rich, and focused on an iterative and continuous process of learning by doing. Starhopper is perhaps the best emblem of this methodology, defying almost every conceivable aerospace industry norm to successfully build and repeatedly fly what was essentially a rocket built outside by water tower welders.
Starhopper may have scarcely been meant to fly at all, serving almost entirely as a proof of concept and learning experience, but Musk strongly suggested that future Starship prototypes will replicate its highly iterative, learning-on-the-job approach to development. In short, much like SpaceX has nearly completed Starship Mk1 (and Mk2) from scratch in less than six months, SpaceX’s development strategy involves building a lot of Starship prototypes as quickly as possible.
Specifically, Elon Musk stated – in his opinion – that SpaceX will likely attempt its first orbital Starship-Super Heavy launch immediately after Starship Mk1’s first flight attempt, a suborbital launch to ~20 km (12.5 mi). Assuming that test – far more critical than any of Starhopper’s travails – is successful, the very next Starship flight could be an orbital launch attempt.
First and foremost, Musk was pretty clear that the rough schedule he laid out was a “stream of consciousness”. Indeed, the eccentric CEO contradicted (or updated) himself over the course of answering the same question, stating that “[SpaceX] would fly to orbit with [Starship] Mk3” before saying that that it would actually be “Mk4 or Mk5”. Musk is still undoubtedly set on announcing gobsmackingly ambitious schedules for his projects, but it’s worth noting just how serious he seemed while discussing Starship’s development timeline.
He noted that SpaceX will likely “have [Starship] Mk2 built within a couple of months – or less”, referring to the second prototype currently in the late stages of integration at the company’s similar Cocoa, FL facilities. Additionally, Musk indicated that Starship Mk3 – yet to begin construction in Boca Chica – could be finished as few three months from now (around the start of 2020), with Starship Mk4 – to be built in Florida – could be just one to two months behind (NET Feb/March 2020). Correcting his previous statement, whether intentional or not, Musk also added that SpaceX’s first orbital Starship launch attempt would likely involve either the Mk4 or Mk5 prototype and occur “less than six months from now”.
As a slight consolation to the eyewateringly ambitious timeline he laid out, Musk qualified his “six months to orbit” target by acknowledging that it would only be achievable “provided the rate of design and manufacturing improvement continues to be exponential”. If that remains the case, as he believes it has been over the last six or so months, then SpaceX could be ready for the first orbital Starship launch attempt as few as 6-9 months from now – sometime in the first half of 2020.
A lot will undoubtedly have to go very right for that to remain anywhere within the realm of plausibility. This includes the rapid maturation of Starship’s Raptor engine and vacuum-optimized variant, the successful completion of Starship Mk1’s 20km flight test, the assembly and static fire of the first Super Heavy booster(s), the construction of brand new orbital launch facilities, and the FAA’s approval of all aforementioned flight operations.
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Needless to say, the odds are heavily stacked against Musk’s goal of reaching orbit within six months. There is undoubtedly a chance that SpaceX can pull it off, even if success would essentially involve constructing a bridge while driving off a cliff. However, the most important thing to note is that even if Elon Musk is a factor of 1.5, 2, 3, or even 4 times off and Starship reaches orbit for the first time 12 or 18 or 24 months from now, it will still have been an incredibly brisk period of development for a rocket as large, high-performance, and ambitious as Starship/Super Heavy.
It should also be made clear that, while it’s utterly beyond the present capabilities of NASA and other space agencies/companies of the 21st century, Saturn V went from paper to its first orbital launch in just five years. Depending on how one perceives Starship development, it could be said that SpaceX began development – particularly marked by Raptor engine prototype testing – as early as 2016. Suffice it to say that it’s far from impossible that Starship’s first orbital launch will happen next year, even if the challenges SpaceX faces are immense.
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Tesla starts laying the groundwork for FSD tests in Austria
The job opening comes as the company pushes regulatory approvals and data collection in new European markets.
Tesla seems to be ramping its efforts to hire key personnel for FSD’s eventual expansion in Europe. This was hinted at in a new job listing for a vehicle operator role in Vienna, Austria.
The job opening comes as the company pushes regulatory approvals and data collection in new European markets.
Vienna’s vehicle operator role
Tesla posted the job for “Fahrer (Vehicle Operator) (m/w/d)” in its Vienna office on its Careers website, seeking candidates to drive and monitor test vehicles as part of the Autopilot and AI team. The role involves collecting real-world driving data to refine Full Self-Driving systems for the country’s local roads. Responsibilities include operating vehicles in urban and highway environments, documenting system performance, among other tasks.
Applicants need a valid Austrian driver’s license and at least two years of driving experience. Fluency in English is essential, along with a familiarity with driver assist systems. Tesla noted that the position offers a minimum annual gross salary of EUR 32,000, though relevant professional experience and qualifications will be taken into account. Similar to other Tesla roles, the position also offers TSLA stock as an incentive.
Tesla’s FSD Push in Europe
Tesla’s FSD efforts in Europe have accelerated in recent months, with significant progress in Spain serving as a key milestone. In July 2025, Spain’s Directorate-General for Traffic launched the ES-AV framework to standardize automated vehicle testing, authorizing Tesla for nationwide FSD trials with 19 vehicles under Phase 3, which allows optional onboard safety operators and remote monitoring.
-->The program, running through November 2027, aims to position Spain as a leader in the field, as DGT stated: “The program is designed to complement and enhance oversight, regulation, research, and transparency efforts, as well as to support innovation and advancements in automotive technology and industry.”
Beyond Spain, Tesla has conducted FSD demonstrations in Germany, France and Italy for consumers, while pursuing national approval in the Netherlands for early 2026.
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Tesla Semi factory looks almost complete during Thanksgiving weekend
Based on recent drone videos, the Tesla Semi factory looks practically ready to start operations.
It appears that the Tesla Semi factory near Giga Nevada is already hard at work preparing for the initial production of the Class 8 all-electric truck. This was, at least, hinted at in a recent drone flyover of the facility from a longtime watcher.
The Tesla Semi factory after Thanksgiving
Drone operator and Tesla Semi advocate @HinrichsZane recently shared some footage he captured of the upcoming facility during the Thanksgiving weekend. Based on his video, it appears that Tesla gave its employees in the area the weekend off. One thing is evident from the video, however, and that is the fact that the Tesla Semi factory looks practically ready to start operations.
The Tesla Semi watcher did point out that the electric vehicle maker is still busy bringing in production equipment into the facility itself. Once these are installed, it would not be surprising if initial production of the Tesla Semi begins.
A new Tesla Semi
The upcoming completion of the Tesla Semi factory near Gigafactory Nevada seems all but inevitable in the coming months. What would be especially interesting, however, would be the vehicles that would be produced on the site. During Elon Musk’s presentation at the 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting, a glimpse of the production Tesla Semi was shown, and it looks quite a bit different than the Class 8 all-electric truck’s classic appearance.
As could be seen in the graphic from the CEO’s presentation, the updated Tesla Semi will feature slim lightbar headlights similar to the new Tesla Model Y, Cybertruck, and the Cybercab. Tesla also teased a number of aerodynamic improvements that increased the truck’s efficiency to 1.7 kWh per mile. Extended camera units, seemingly for FSD, could also be seen in the graphic.
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Tesla scores major hire as Apple scientist moves to Optimus team
Chen, who advanced from individual contributor to technical lead during his time at Apple, noted that he was blown away by Tesla’s efforts and synergy.
Former Apple research scientist Yilun Chen has left the tech giant to join Tesla’s Optimus AI team. Chen, who advanced from individual contributor to technical lead during his time at Apple, noted that he was blown away by Tesla’s efforts and synergy.
Apple veteran closes a major chapter
In a farewell note, Yilun Chen reflected on his tenure at Apple as a period defined by rapid growth and exposure to notable internal projects, some of which remain unreleased. His roles spanned engineering, research, early product incubation, and hands-on prototyping, allowing him to build expertise across both mature and emerging teams.
Chen credited mentors, colleagues, and cross-functional collaborators for shaping his trajectory, calling the experience unforgettable and emphasizing how each team taught him different lessons about scaling technology, guiding product vision, and navigating fast-moving research environments. “Each role has offered me invaluable unique lessons… My deepest gratitude goes to my colleagues, mentors and friends,” he wrote.
Tesla’s Optimus lab secured the hire
Chen said the move to Tesla was driven by the momentum surrounding Optimus, a humanoid robot powered by LLM-driven reasoning and Physical AI. After visiting Tesla’s Optimus lab, he admitted that he was “totally blown away by the scale and sophistication of the Optimus lab and deep dedication of people when I got to visit the office.”
His first week at Tesla, he noted, involved spontaneous deep-tech discussions, a flat team structure, rapid prototyping cycles, and what he called a “crazy ideas with super-fast iterations” culture. Chen emphasized that the team’s ambition, as well as its belief that humanoid robots are now within reach, creates an energy level that feels aimed at changing the world.
-->“You can feel the energy to change the world here,” he wrote in a post on social media.
Tesla starts laying the groundwork for FSD tests in Austria
Tesla Semi factory looks almost complete during Thanksgiving weekend
