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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk lays out Starship’s path to orbit with sights set on 2020 debut
Speaking on September 28th, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk sketched out a fairly detailed picture of Starship’s path to orbit, from the first flight of the first full-scale prototype to the spacecraft’s inaugural orbital launch atop a Super Heavy booster.
Incredibly, Musk was persistent with claims that he has challenged SpaceX’s Starship teams to conduct the next-generation rocket’s first orbital launch within six months, drawing a line in the sand around April 1st, 2020 (?). How, then, does the SpaceX CEO foresee the next year or so playing out?
A whole lotta ‘Ships
As is the company’s signature, Musk confirmed that the Starship development program will continue to be highly distributed, hardware-rich, and focused on an iterative and continuous process of learning by doing. Starhopper is perhaps the best emblem of this methodology, defying almost every conceivable aerospace industry norm to successfully build and repeatedly fly what was essentially a rocket built outside by water tower welders.
Starhopper may have scarcely been meant to fly at all, serving almost entirely as a proof of concept and learning experience, but Musk strongly suggested that future Starship prototypes will replicate its highly iterative, learning-on-the-job approach to development. In short, much like SpaceX has nearly completed Starship Mk1 (and Mk2) from scratch in less than six months, SpaceX’s development strategy involves building a lot of Starship prototypes as quickly as possible.
Specifically, Elon Musk stated – in his opinion – that SpaceX will likely attempt its first orbital Starship-Super Heavy launch immediately after Starship Mk1’s first flight attempt, a suborbital launch to ~20 km (12.5 mi). Assuming that test – far more critical than any of Starhopper’s travails – is successful, the very next Starship flight could be an orbital launch attempt.
First and foremost, Musk was pretty clear that the rough schedule he laid out was a “stream of consciousness”. Indeed, the eccentric CEO contradicted (or updated) himself over the course of answering the same question, stating that “[SpaceX] would fly to orbit with [Starship] Mk3” before saying that that it would actually be “Mk4 or Mk5”. Musk is still undoubtedly set on announcing gobsmackingly ambitious schedules for his projects, but it’s worth noting just how serious he seemed while discussing Starship’s development timeline.
He noted that SpaceX will likely “have [Starship] Mk2 built within a couple of months – or less”, referring to the second prototype currently in the late stages of integration at the company’s similar Cocoa, FL facilities. Additionally, Musk indicated that Starship Mk3 – yet to begin construction in Boca Chica – could be finished as few three months from now (around the start of 2020), with Starship Mk4 – to be built in Florida – could be just one to two months behind (NET Feb/March 2020). Correcting his previous statement, whether intentional or not, Musk also added that SpaceX’s first orbital Starship launch attempt would likely involve either the Mk4 or Mk5 prototype and occur “less than six months from now”.
As a slight consolation to the eyewateringly ambitious timeline he laid out, Musk qualified his “six months to orbit” target by acknowledging that it would only be achievable “provided the rate of design and manufacturing improvement continues to be exponential”. If that remains the case, as he believes it has been over the last six or so months, then SpaceX could be ready for the first orbital Starship launch attempt as few as 6-9 months from now – sometime in the first half of 2020.
A lot will undoubtedly have to go very right for that to remain anywhere within the realm of plausibility. This includes the rapid maturation of Starship’s Raptor engine and vacuum-optimized variant, the successful completion of Starship Mk1’s 20km flight test, the assembly and static fire of the first Super Heavy booster(s), the construction of brand new orbital launch facilities, and the FAA’s approval of all aforementioned flight operations.
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Needless to say, the odds are heavily stacked against Musk’s goal of reaching orbit within six months. There is undoubtedly a chance that SpaceX can pull it off, even if success would essentially involve constructing a bridge while driving off a cliff. However, the most important thing to note is that even if Elon Musk is a factor of 1.5, 2, 3, or even 4 times off and Starship reaches orbit for the first time 12 or 18 or 24 months from now, it will still have been an incredibly brisk period of development for a rocket as large, high-performance, and ambitious as Starship/Super Heavy.
It should also be made clear that, while it’s utterly beyond the present capabilities of NASA and other space agencies/companies of the 21st century, Saturn V went from paper to its first orbital launch in just five years. Depending on how one perceives Starship development, it could be said that SpaceX began development – particularly marked by Raptor engine prototype testing – as early as 2016. Suffice it to say that it’s far from impossible that Starship’s first orbital launch will happen next year, even if the challenges SpaceX faces are immense.
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Tesla Model 3 and Model Y named top car buys in Norway
Despite growing competition from European and Korean brands, both models stood out for their balance of price, performance, and everyday usability.
Norway’s annual roundup of the best car purchases featured Tesla’s two main sellers this year, with the Model 3 and Model Y securing top positions in their respective segments.
Despite growing competition from European and Korean brands, both models stood out for their balance of price, performance, and everyday usability. The verdict comes as electric vehicle adoption remained above 95% of new vehicle sales in the country.
Tesla Model 3 strengthens its value position
Among compact EVs, the Tesla Model 3 maintained its position as the best overall buy thanks to its strong blend of performance, efficiency, and updated features. Reviewers noted that every trim offered compelling value, especially with the all-electric sedan’s improved cabin ergonomics and the return of the turn-signal stalk, which was one of the few previous complaints among drivers.
The Model 3’s mix of long-range capability, low operating costs, and responsive handling has continued to set the benchmark for compact EVs in Norway. While competitors from Hyundai, Volkswagen, and Peugeot have narrowed the gap, Tesla’s price-to-capability ratio has remained difficult to beat in this segment, Motor.no reported.
“The Model 3 clearly offers the best value for money in the compact class, no matter which version you choose. Now it also gets the turn signal lever back. This eliminates one of the few flaws in a driving environment that many believe is the best on the market,” the publication wrote.
-->Tesla Model Y claims its crown
The Tesla Model Y emerged as Norway’s top family-car purchase this year. The latest refresh introduced improvements in ride quality, styling, and interior materials, allowing the Model Y to deliver a more premium driving experience without a substantial price increase.
Reviewers praised its spacious cabin, strong safety profile, and practical range, all of which reinforced its appeal for families needing an all-purpose electric crossover. The Model Y remains especially notable given its continued popularity in Norway even as Tesla faces declining sales in other global markets.
“The Model Y is back as the winner in the family class. The upgrade in the new year was even more extensive than expected. It is a slightly more elegant and significantly more comfortable Model Y that solidifies its position as Norway’s best car purchase in the most important class,” the Norwegian motoring publication noted.
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Tesla Giga Berlin is still ramping production to meet Model Y demand: plant manager
Tesla Gigafactory Berlin has expanded to two full shifts, as per the facility’s plant manager, and a lot of it is due to Model Y demand.
Tesla Gigafactory Berlin has expanded to two full shifts, as per the facility’s plant manager, and a lot of it is due to Model Y demand. While registrations in some countries such as Sweden have fallen sharply this year, the company’s sales in other key territories have been rising.
Giga Berlin shifts to two shifts
Giga Berlin factory manager André Thierig told the DPA that the facility has been running two shifts since September to manage a surge in global orders. And due to the tariff dispute with the United States, vehicles that are produced at Giga Berlin are now being exported to Canada.
“We deliver to well over 30 markets and definitely see a positive trend there,” Thierig said.
Despite Giga Berlin now having two shifts, the facility’s production still needs to ramp up more. This is partly due to the addition of the Tesla Model Y Performance and Standard, which are also being produced in the Grunheide-based factory. Interestingly enough, Giga Berlin still only produces the Model Y, unlike other factories like Gigafactory Texas, the Fremont Factory, and Gigafactory Shanghai, which produce more than one type of vehicle.
Norway’s momentum
Norway, facing an imminent tax increase on cars, has seen a historic spike in Tesla purchases as buyers rush to secure deliveries before the change takes effect, as noted in a CarUp report. As per recent reports, Tesla has broken Norway’s all-time annual sales record this month, beating Volkswagen’s record that has stood since 2016.
-->What is rather remarkable is the fact that Tesla was able to achieve so much in Norway with one hand practically tied behind its back. This is because the company’s biggest sales draw, FSD, remains unavailable in the country. Fortunately, Tesla is currently hard at work attempting to get FSD approved for Europe, a notable milestone that should spur even more vehicle sales in the region.
Tesla is launching a crazy Full Self-Driving free trial, which will enable owners who have not purchased the suite outright to try it for 30 days.
There are a handful of stipulations that will be needed in order for you to qualify for the free trial, which was announced on Thursday night.
Tesla said the trial is for v14, the company’s latest version of the Full Self-Driving suite, and will be available to new and existing Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, and Cybertruck owners, who will have the opportunity to try the latest features, including Speed Profiles, Arrival Options, and other new upgrades.
🚨 Tesla is launching a free 30-day trial of Full Self-Driving in North America for owners.
It includes every model, but you need v14.2 or later, and you cannot have already purchased the suite outright. https://t.co/8CNmxxOkVl
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) November 27, 2025
You must own one of the five Tesla models, have Full Self-Driving v14.2 or later, and have an eligible vehicle in the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, or Canada.
The company said it is a non-transferable trial, which is not redeemable for cash. Tesla is reaching out to owners via email to give them the opportunity to enable the Full Self-Driving trial.
Those who are subscribed to the monthly Full Self-Driving program are eligible, so they will essentially get a free month of the suite.
Once it is installed, the trial will begin, and the 30-day countdown will begin.
Tesla is making a major push to increase its Full Self-Driving take rate, as it revealed that about 12 percent of owners are users of the program during its recent earnings call.
Tesla CFO Vaibhav Taneja said during the call:
“We feel that as people experience the supervised FSD at scale, demand for our vehicles, like Elon said, would increase significantly. On the FSD adoption front, we’ve continued to see decent progress. However, note that the total paid FSD customer base is still small, around 12% of our current fleet.”
Earlier today, we reported on Tesla also launching a small-scale advertising campaign on X for the Full Self-Driving suite, hoping to increase adoption.
Tesla Full Self-Driving warrants huge switch-up on essential company strategy
It appears most people are pretty content with the subscription program. It costs just $99 a month, in comparison to the $8,000 fee it is for the outright purchase.
Tesla Model 3 and Model Y named top car buys in Norway
Tesla Giga Berlin is still ramping production to meet Model Y demand: plant manager
