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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk lays out Starship’s path to orbit with sights set on 2020 debut

Starship heads to orbit atop a Super Heavy booster. (SpaceX)

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6 years ago

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Speaking on September 28th, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk sketched out a fairly detailed picture of Starship’s path to orbit, from the first flight of the first full-scale prototype to the spacecraft’s inaugural orbital launch atop a Super Heavy booster.

Incredibly, Musk was persistent with claims that he has challenged SpaceX’s Starship teams to conduct the next-generation rocket’s first orbital launch within six months, drawing a line in the sand around April 1st, 2020 (?). How, then, does the SpaceX CEO foresee the next year or so playing out?

A whole lotta ‘Ships

As is the company’s signature, Musk confirmed that the Starship development program will continue to be highly distributed, hardware-rich, and focused on an iterative and continuous process of learning by doing. Starhopper is perhaps the best emblem of this methodology, defying almost every conceivable aerospace industry norm to successfully build and repeatedly fly what was essentially a rocket built outside by water tower welders.

Starhopper may have scarcely been meant to fly at all, serving almost entirely as a proof of concept and learning experience, but Musk strongly suggested that future Starship prototypes will replicate its highly iterative, learning-on-the-job approach to development. In short, much like SpaceX has nearly completed Starship Mk1 (and Mk2) from scratch in less than six months, SpaceX’s development strategy involves building a lot of Starship prototypes as quickly as possible.

Specifically, Elon Musk stated – in his opinion – that SpaceX will likely attempt its first orbital Starship-Super Heavy launch immediately after Starship Mk1’s first flight attempt, a suborbital launch to ~20 km (12.5 mi). Assuming that test – far more critical than any of Starhopper’s travails – is successful, the very next Starship flight could be an orbital launch attempt.

Starship Mk1 is pictured here on September 27th, less than half a day after technicians stacked the prototype’s two halves. (Teslarati – Eric Ralph)

First and foremost, Musk was pretty clear that the rough schedule he laid out was a “stream of consciousness”. Indeed, the eccentric CEO contradicted (or updated) himself over the course of answering the same question, stating that “[SpaceX] would fly to orbit with [Starship] Mk3” before saying that that it would actually be “Mk4 or Mk5”. Musk is still undoubtedly set on announcing gobsmackingly ambitious schedules for his projects, but it’s worth noting just how serious he seemed while discussing Starship’s development timeline.

He noted that SpaceX will likely “have [Starship] Mk2 built within a couple of months – or less”, referring to the second prototype currently in the late stages of integration at the company’s similar Cocoa, FL facilities. Additionally, Musk indicated that Starship Mk3 – yet to begin construction in Boca Chica – could be finished as few three months from now (around the start of 2020), with Starship Mk4 – to be built in Florida – could be just one to two months behind (NET Feb/March 2020). Correcting his previous statement, whether intentional or not, Musk also added that SpaceX’s first orbital Starship launch attempt would likely involve either the Mk4 or Mk5 prototype and occur “less than six months from now”.

As a slight consolation to the eyewateringly ambitious timeline he laid out, Musk qualified his “six months to orbit” target by acknowledging that it would only be achievable “provided the rate of design and manufacturing improvement continues to be exponential”. If that remains the case, as he believes it has been over the last six or so months, then SpaceX could be ready for the first orbital Starship launch attempt as few as 6-9 months from now – sometime in the first half of 2020.

A lot will undoubtedly have to go very right for that to remain anywhere within the realm of plausibility. This includes the rapid maturation of Starship’s Raptor engine and vacuum-optimized variant, the successful completion of Starship Mk1’s 20km flight test, the assembly and static fire of the first Super Heavy booster(s), the construction of brand new orbital launch facilities, and the FAA’s approval of all aforementioned flight operations.

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Needless to say, the odds are heavily stacked against Musk’s goal of reaching orbit within six months. There is undoubtedly a chance that SpaceX can pull it off, even if success would essentially involve constructing a bridge while driving off a cliff. However, the most important thing to note is that even if Elon Musk is a factor of 1.5, 2, 3, or even 4 times off and Starship reaches orbit for the first time 12 or 18 or 24 months from now, it will still have been an incredibly brisk period of development for a rocket as large, high-performance, and ambitious as Starship/Super Heavy.

It should also be made clear that, while it’s utterly beyond the present capabilities of NASA and other space agencies/companies of the 21st century, Saturn V went from paper to its first orbital launch in just five years. Depending on how one perceives Starship development, it could be said that SpaceX began development – particularly marked by Raptor engine prototype testing – as early as 2016. Suffice it to say that it’s far from impossible that Starship’s first orbital launch will happen next year, even if the challenges SpaceX faces are immense.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla’s little-known secret about its Diner might be the best feature of all

Tesla is not letting its servers go untipped, it’s taking care of that for its employees on its own.

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6 hours ago

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July 26, 2025

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla’s Supercharger Diner in Los Angeles has a little-known secret, and in all honesty, it might be the best part of the entire thing.

Tesla opened its Supercharger Diner earlier in June, and in its first week of operation, it has done nothing but garner attention from fans, food critics, and general onlookers who are surprised to see the company gaining traction in the culinary space.

However, there is a little-known secret about the Diner that many people have not shared, and it has to do with the staff and customers.

Traditionally, restaurants in the United States do not pay their servers a normal wage. They are paid a lower hourly rate because they make most of their money through tips or gratuity. While it is sort of strange and has recently become a more controversial topic, tipping culture in the U.S. has garnered plenty of attention lately.

Many people outside the U.S. have trouble grasping the idea of tipping servers, as many believe the restaurant should pay them a livable wage and stop relying on customers to keep the employees to a point where they can live reasonably well.

In the U.S., people seem to be on board with one side or the other: tip them because the restaurant doesn’t pay them a wage, or “I’m not tipping them for doing their jobs.”

Whichever side of the argument you’re on, I think it seems reasonable to want servers to make enough money to live comfortably and expect the restaurant to take care of that.

Tesla has done just that for the staff at the Supercharger Diner, as it has been revealed that the company covers tipping. There is no option to tip the servers or wait staff; Tesla will do it for you.

This is a great gesture by Tesla because more and more people every day seem to be against tipping in an effort to force restaurants to pay employees more money. While it seems like a good strategy at first, it only impacts the servers, while this decision does not impact the restaurant and its owners.

Tesla is taking that risk out of the equation by providing gratuity to employees through its own means.

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Elon Musk

xAI, Musk Foundation helps schools near Memphis supercomputer site

Reports of xAI and the Musk Foundation’s work were recently posted by local news media.

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July 26, 2025

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(Credit: xAI)

Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup xAI and the Musk Foundation have been supporting Memphis-Shelby County Schools with HVAC repairs and facility upgrades, while also funding youth programs for students in the area. 

Reports of xAI and the Musk Foundation’s work were recently posted by local news media.

xAI’s school visits lead to facility repairs

Representatives from xAI visited John P. Freeman Optional School, Fairley High School, and Westwood High School, all of which are located near its Colossus supercomputer site, to assess HVAC systems, plumbing, gym facilities, and athletic fields. The visits resulted in a list of priority repairs, some of which were completed in April and May.

In addition to the repairs, xAI also shared a number of initiatives that are planned for students in the area, as stated in a Commercial Appeal report.

“xAI is working on providing STEM workshops for local students, donating equipment to technical training programs, and supporting job fairs to boost employment opportunities. These initiatives reflect xAl’s commitment to fostering education and economic growth in Memphis,” xAI noted in a statement.

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Musk Foundation donation

Apart from xAI, the Musk Foundation also donated $350,000 to the Boys & Girls Clubs of Greater Memphis, enabling the reopening of two club sites located at Booker T. Washington High School and Westwood High School. Both locations had closed earlier this year due to lapses in funding. As per xAI, the Musk Foundation’s donation allows clubs to reopen for almost 1,000 students. 

The donation will fund staffing, supplies, and transportation, among others. “Kids are the future of humanity,” Elon Musk said in a statement, adding that students need “every chance to shoot for the stars.”

“We’re honored to support the Boys & Girls Clubs of Greater Memphis in reopening these sites, giving kids in underserved communities the tools to build brighter futures,” Musk said.

The gift was praised by local officials, including Boys & Girls Clubs board chair Michael Garriga, who stated that the “commitment will ensure the youth of our community have the opportunities they need to develop their skills and talents to become successful students and future citizens.”

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What to expect from Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s new Master Plan

While Musk only shared a few tidbits about his next plan, he did hint at its theme.

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7 hours ago

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July 26, 2025

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

Tesla CEO Elon Musk is working on another Master Plan. The executive mentioned this during the company’s second quarter earnings call earlier this week. While Musk only shared a few tidbits about his next plan, he did hint at its theme.

Master Plan Part Four

Elon Musk’s Master Plans have been a huge guiding hand for Tesla over the past couple of decades. His first Master Plan, which was published in 2006, featured a pathway towards the production of the Model 3 and energy storage systems. Master Plan, Part Deux, which was published ten years later in 2016, featured a pathway towards a Robotaxi network. 

Master Plan Part 3 was more ambitious, as it presented a case towards a world where there is sustainable energy for the entire planet. Considering the scale and ambitious nature of Master Plan Part 3, it was widely speculated that Elon Musk’s next Master Plan would not be around for some time. During the second quarter earnings call, however, Musk confirmed that he is indeed creating his next big plan.

Master Plan Part 4

Elon Musk mentioned his next Master Plan when a question was asked about the work that goes on inside the Tesla Design Studio during the Q2 2025 earnings call. In response to the inquiry, Tesla Chief Designer Franz von Holzhausen emphasized that while earnings calls are not the venue for disclosing new product-related information, Tesla is working to ensure that the future remains exciting. Musk agreed, stating that there are lots of exciting things happening in the Tesla Design Studio.

“What’s going to happen over the next several years is a fundamental transformation of the company from a pre-autonomy world to a post-autonomy. And I’m working on a new Master Plan to articulate that to the Tesla team. And there will be some teething pains as you transition from a pre- autonomy to post-autonomy world, but I think the future vision for Tesla is incredibly exciting and will profoundly change the world in a good way,” Musk said.

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A Post-Autonomy World

Considering Musk’s comments, it would appear that Master Plan Part 4 will be focused on a path towards what the CEO has been describing as “sustainable abundance.” If Master Plan Part 3 was focused on fostering sustainable energy for the entire planet, Master Plan Part 4 will likely present a path towards abundance in a world populated by self-driving vehicles like the Cybercab and humanoid robots like Optimus.

Master Plan Part 4 will likely have been farfetched just a couple years ago. Yet with Tesla now operating its Robotaxi service in Austin and Optimus V3 expected to enter production next year, the idea of a world filled with “sustainable abundance” does seem quite feasible. It will be ambitious like Elon Musk’s other Master Plans, of course, but it will be attainable. 

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