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SpaceX’s Elon Musk: odds of Starship reaching orbit by 2020 are “rising rapidly”

Starship is visualized here landing on Mars. Initial Texas hop tests will likely look similar, albeit in Earth gravity and over concrete. (SpaceX)

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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has suggested that the company’s newly revamped Starship and Super Heavy rocket (previously known as BFR) could perform its first integrated launches – placing Starship into orbit – as few as 12-24 months from today.

Musk indicated that the odds of Starship reaching orbit as early as 2020 are now as high as “60% [and] rising rapidly”, thanks in no small part to the flurry of radical changes the spacecraft and booster have both undergone over the course of 2018.

Combined with a decision – made public at a September 2018 media event – to delay the debut of a vacuum-optimized upper stage Raptor (RVac) and stick with its mature sea level variant, Musk apparently is quite confident that these dramatic shifts in strategy will allow SpaceX to aggressively slash the development schedules of its next-gen launch vehicle. Intriguingly, Musk noted that while these “radical” design changes were almost entirely motivated by his desire to expedite the fully-reusable rocket’s operational debut, it apparently became clear that the cheaper, faster, and easier iteration could actually end up being (in Musk’s own words) “dramatically better” than its exotic carbon-composite progenitor.

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BFS arrives at Mars. (SpaceX)

“Delightfully counter-intuitive”

Let there be little doubt – I am still immensely skeptical of this radical redesign and the implausible logistics of conducting said redesign at the last second while somehow maintaining the test schedule, let alone expediting it by 6-9 months. Despite the fact that Musk does seem to have a compellingly rational answer to every question thus far asked, he was no less convincing in mid-2016 when he stated with contagious conviction that Tesla’s Fremont factory would be an almost 100%-automated “alien dreadnought” as early as 2018. There is, of course, nothing wrong per se with being wrong, although taking 24 months and several hundred million dollars to realize as much can be downright fatal or at least a major health risk for any given company that faces such a challenge, as was the case with Tesla.

Skepticism aside, there are equally many reasons to be optimistic about the future of SpaceX’s Starship/Super Heavy (BFR) program over the next several years. Not only do metal hot structures have a proven track record of success (admittedly in the 1960s and for suborbital conditions, but still), but the century and a half humans have been making and building with steel serves to aggressively reduce risk in BFR’s development, whereas a giant, highly-reusable spaceship and rocket built mainly out of carbon composites is about as exotic, challenging, and alien as one could muster. One step further, Musk appears to be dead-set on the trade that the benefits of moving from composite to stainless steel far, far outweigh the costs.

 

Most notably, Musk’s implication that a steel alloy skin – albeit with regenerative (i.e. liquid) cooling – could genuinely stand in for SpaceX’s ablative PICA-X heat shield technology on Starship was the most unintuitive but logical shift yet. Although steel alloys may literally have densities that are significantly higher than carbon composites, composites simply cannot (at least in the current state of the art) withstand high temperatures like those that Starship would inevitably experience during orbital and interplanetary reentries. As a result, Starship would need an extremely advanced heat shield technology that is minimally ablative, extremely lightweight, robust, and shock-resistant, not to mention an additional layer capable of mounting it to Starship’s composite hull while also insulating the propellant tanks and structure from the extreme heat of reentry.

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Steel, on the other hand, is one of the least thermally conductive metals available, while also featuring alloys with melting points that can approach and even surpass 1500 degrees C. With regenerative cooling, it’s entirely possible that a hot steel shield and fusion of propellant tanks and load-bearing structures could ultimately result in a spaceship far more reusable, reliable, and perhaps even performant that a spaceship relying on exotic heat shield materials and linerless carbon composite propellant tanks.

Perhaps BFR Block 2 or 3 will make room for dramatically improved composite formulations and production methods down the road, but advanced steel and other metal alloys appear to be the way forward for SpaceX for the time being. For now, we can sit, watch, and wait as something comes together at the company’s South Texas test and launch facilities.


For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Cantor Fitzgerald maintains Tesla (TSLA) ‘Overweight’ rating amid Q2 2025 deliveries

Cantor Fitzgerald is holding firm on its bullish stance for the electric vehicle maker.

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Credit: Tesla China

Cantor Fitzgerald is holding firm on its bullish stance for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), reiterating its “Overweight” rating and $355 price target amidst the company’s release of its Q2 2025 vehicle delivery and production report. 

Tesla delivered 384,122 vehicles in Q2 2025, falling below last year’s Q2 figure of 443,956 units. Despite softer demand in some countries in Europe and ongoing controversies surrounding CEO Elon Musk, the firm maintained its view that Tesla is a long-term growth story in the EV sector.

Tesla’s Q2 results

Among the 384,122 vehicles that Tesla delivered in the second quarter, 373,728 were Model 3 and Model Y. The remaining 10,394 units were attributed to the Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck. Production was largely flat year-over-year at 410,244 units.

In the energy division, Tesla deployed 9.6 GWh of energy storage in Q2, which was above last year’s 9.4 GWh. Overall, Tesla continues to hold a strong position with $95.7 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue and a 17.7% gross margin, as noted in a report from Investing.com.

Tesla’s stock is still volatile

Tesla’s market cap fell to $941 billion on Monday amid volatility that was likely caused in no small part by CEO Elon Musk’s political posts on X over the weekend. Musk has announced that he is forming the America Party to serve as a third option for voters in the United States, a decision that has earned the ire of U.S. President Donald Trump. 

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Despite Musk’s controversial nature, some analysts remain bullish on TSLA stock. Apart from Cantor Fitzgerald, Canaccord Genuity also reiterated its “Buy” rating on Tesla shares, with the firm highlighting the company’s positive Q2 vehicle deliveries, which exceeded its expectations by 24,000 units. Cannacord also noted that Tesla remains strong in several markets despite its year-over-year decline in deliveries.

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Tesla Sweden responds to car magazine’s claims that Model 3 has deficient brakes

The company stated that it would be examining the two Model 3s that were used in the magazine’s test.

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

Tesla Sweden has responded to a car magazine’s claims that the new Model 3 sedan has “deficient” brakes. The all-electric sedan was subjected to the publication’s tests, and its braking distance was reportedly found to be lacking. 

The car magazine’s tests

As noted in a report from Swedish car magazine Teknikens Värld, the new Model 3 Long Range’s braking distance proved subpar when it was tested, with the vehicle reportedly having a braking distance of a whopping 133.2 feet (40.6 meters). The magazine claimed that it repeated the test with another Model 3, and its results were only 5 feet (1.5 meters) better. 

The magazine noted that this was unacceptable since an acceptable braking distance is 124 feet (28 meters), which also happens to be the Model 3’s braking distance when it was tested by Edmunds in the United States. The publication also stated that the Volkswagen ID.7 Tourer, which is equipped with drum brakes at the rear, had a braking distance that’s 16 feet (5 meters) shorter in its tests. 

Tesla Sweden’s response

Tesla Sweden responded to the car magazine’s claims, stating that the all-electric sedan’s alleged braking performance was not consistent with the company’s data, nor does it align with the Model 3’s safety ratings. The company also noted that it would be examining the two Model 3s that were used in the magazine’s test. 

“In the latest braking tests with Model 3, which were conducted by Teknikens Värld 2021, a braking distance of 36.5 meters was measured for Model 3 RWD and 36.7 meters for Model 3 Long Range AWD, so these results are not recognized or consistent with our internal tests.

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“We are examining the two specimens to find out why the braking distances differ. Safety is number one at Tesla. Model 3 comes with all safety features as standard. Independent crash safety organization Euro NCAP recently announced new crash results for cars tested in May 2025. Euro NCAP gives the upgraded Model 3 a 5 out of 5-star safety rating and an overall score of 90%, making Model 3 one of the safest vehicles tested under the latest and most stringent testing protocol ever,” Tesla Sweden stated.

Teknikens Värld digs its heels

While Tesla Sweden has responded to its allegations, the car magazine noted that it will nonetheless stand firm on its claim that the new Model 3 has deficient brakes. 

“The fact that the Model 3 previously passed the brake test is not relevant because today’s generation of the Model 3 is to be considered a new generation, as Tesla themselves often point out. Nor is the result in Euro NCAP relevant because they are different tests. We can therefore conclude that Tesla has deficient brakes on the new Model 3. It is good for everyone to know,” the car magazine wrote.

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Trump pushes back on Elon Musk’s America Party, calls third-party move ‘ridiculous’

The clash marks a notable shift in the relationship between the two former allies.

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MINISTÉRIO DAS COMUNICAÇÕES, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

United States President Donald Trump sharply criticized Elon Musk’s decision to launch a new political party, calling the move “ridiculous” and dismissing it as a distraction from the two-party system. The rebuke came shortly after Musk announced the formation of the “America Party,” aimed at disrupting what he calls the entrenched Republican-Democrat “Uniparty.”

Tensions escalate between Trump and Musk

The clash marks a notable shift in the relationship between the two former allies. Musk previously headed the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under Trump’s administration, a position aimed at cutting federal spending. The alliance, however, appears to have fractured over policy differences, particularly Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” which Musk notes will increase the country’s debt by $5 trillion.

Speaking to reporters on Sunday before boarding Air Force One, Trump said, “It’s always been a two-party system and I think starting a third party just adds to the confusion.” Hours later, he posted on Truth Social that Musk had gone “off the rails,” accusing him of promoting an “Electric Vehicle Mandate” that would have required all Americans to switch to EVs in a short timeframe. 

Trump emphasized that his latest tax bill deliberately excluded incentives for electric vehicles, saying Americans should be free to choose gasoline-powered, hybrid, or other new technologies without federal mandates, according to a report from the BBC.

Musk outlines goals for America Party

Musk has been open about his support for ending the EV tax credit, as long as the incentives for other industries like oil and gas are removed as well.. The CEO has adopted this stance for several years. He has also not supported the idea of a mandate that forces consumers to purchase electric cars.

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Musk also stated that the newly formed America Party will focus on congressional races in 2025 and 2026, rather than fielding a presidential candidate in the near term. In his post on X, the Tesla and SpaceX CEO criticized both major parties for contributing to the national debt. He also noted that the Department of Government Efficiency’s work will be rendered useless if the US’ debt increases due to Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill.

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