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SpaceX’s Elon Musk: odds of Starship reaching orbit by 2020 are “rising rapidly”

Starship is visualized here landing on Mars. Initial Texas hop tests will likely look similar, albeit in Earth gravity and over concrete. (SpaceX)

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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has suggested that the company’s newly revamped Starship and Super Heavy rocket (previously known as BFR) could perform its first integrated launches – placing Starship into orbit – as few as 12-24 months from today.

Musk indicated that the odds of Starship reaching orbit as early as 2020 are now as high as “60% [and] rising rapidly”, thanks in no small part to the flurry of radical changes the spacecraft and booster have both undergone over the course of 2018.

Combined with a decision – made public at a September 2018 media event – to delay the debut of a vacuum-optimized upper stage Raptor (RVac) and stick with its mature sea level variant, Musk apparently is quite confident that these dramatic shifts in strategy will allow SpaceX to aggressively slash the development schedules of its next-gen launch vehicle. Intriguingly, Musk noted that while these “radical” design changes were almost entirely motivated by his desire to expedite the fully-reusable rocket’s operational debut, it apparently became clear that the cheaper, faster, and easier iteration could actually end up being (in Musk’s own words) “dramatically better” than its exotic carbon-composite progenitor.

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BFS arrives at Mars. (SpaceX)

“Delightfully counter-intuitive”

Let there be little doubt – I am still immensely skeptical of this radical redesign and the implausible logistics of conducting said redesign at the last second while somehow maintaining the test schedule, let alone expediting it by 6-9 months. Despite the fact that Musk does seem to have a compellingly rational answer to every question thus far asked, he was no less convincing in mid-2016 when he stated with contagious conviction that Tesla’s Fremont factory would be an almost 100%-automated “alien dreadnought” as early as 2018. There is, of course, nothing wrong per se with being wrong, although taking 24 months and several hundred million dollars to realize as much can be downright fatal or at least a major health risk for any given company that faces such a challenge, as was the case with Tesla.

Skepticism aside, there are equally many reasons to be optimistic about the future of SpaceX’s Starship/Super Heavy (BFR) program over the next several years. Not only do metal hot structures have a proven track record of success (admittedly in the 1960s and for suborbital conditions, but still), but the century and a half humans have been making and building with steel serves to aggressively reduce risk in BFR’s development, whereas a giant, highly-reusable spaceship and rocket built mainly out of carbon composites is about as exotic, challenging, and alien as one could muster. One step further, Musk appears to be dead-set on the trade that the benefits of moving from composite to stainless steel far, far outweigh the costs.

 

Most notably, Musk’s implication that a steel alloy skin – albeit with regenerative (i.e. liquid) cooling – could genuinely stand in for SpaceX’s ablative PICA-X heat shield technology on Starship was the most unintuitive but logical shift yet. Although steel alloys may literally have densities that are significantly higher than carbon composites, composites simply cannot (at least in the current state of the art) withstand high temperatures like those that Starship would inevitably experience during orbital and interplanetary reentries. As a result, Starship would need an extremely advanced heat shield technology that is minimally ablative, extremely lightweight, robust, and shock-resistant, not to mention an additional layer capable of mounting it to Starship’s composite hull while also insulating the propellant tanks and structure from the extreme heat of reentry.

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Steel, on the other hand, is one of the least thermally conductive metals available, while also featuring alloys with melting points that can approach and even surpass 1500 degrees C. With regenerative cooling, it’s entirely possible that a hot steel shield and fusion of propellant tanks and load-bearing structures could ultimately result in a spaceship far more reusable, reliable, and perhaps even performant that a spaceship relying on exotic heat shield materials and linerless carbon composite propellant tanks.

Perhaps BFR Block 2 or 3 will make room for dramatically improved composite formulations and production methods down the road, but advanced steel and other metal alloys appear to be the way forward for SpaceX for the time being. For now, we can sit, watch, and wait as something comes together at the company’s South Texas test and launch facilities.


For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk just roasted Sam Altman’s Tesla Roadster cancellation

“And you forgot to mention act 4, where this issue was fixed and you received a refund within 24 hours.

But that is in your nature.”

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Elon Musk has responded to OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s decision to cancel his Tesla Roadster reservation, which he revealed on X on Thursday.

We reported on Altman’s decision, which he called “A tale in three acts,” showing his confirmation email from Tesla back in 2018, an email requesting his $50,000 deposit back after canceling his order, and a notification from Google that the email he sent was not delivered.

Musk did not take too kindly to the post from his tech rival, first referencing his position with OpenAI, and then confirming that Altman received his reservation deposit back within 24 hours:

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OpenAI was started by Musk, Altman, and others back in 2015, and was geared toward being a non-profit company that would develop safe artificial intelligence that would be accessible to people.

However, Musk and Altman did not agree on the future of the company. Musk left, and Altman turned OpenAI into a for-profit company. This led to a variety of lawsuits and some very public spats between the two. Musk has called out Altman for turning the company into a for-profit, which has been his main source of criticism for his former colleague.

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The Roadster has been hanging in the balance of Tesla’s manufacturing plans for seven years, but the company has made more indications that it will be unveiled later this year and will have some insane technologies.

Musk said on Friday in an episode of the Joe Rogan Experience Podcast that Tesla is “getting close to demonstrating the prototype.”

He said:

“Whether it’s good or bad, it will be unforgettable. My friend Peter Thiel once reflected that the future was supposed to have flying cars, but we don’t have flying cars. I think if Peter wants a flying car, he should be able to buy one…I think it has a shot at being the most memorable product unveil ever. [It will be unveiled] hopefully before the end of the year. You know, we need to make sure that it works. This is some crazy technology in this car. Let’s just put it this way: if you took all the James Bond cars and combined them, it’s crazier than that.”

Musk hinted that the vehicle could fly and would have “crazy technology” that would put James Bond’s vehicles to shame. It will be interesting to see what Tesla will unveil when the event happens and if it can come through on this mind-blowing teaser.

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SpaceX successfully launches 100th Starlink mission of 2025

With 100 Starlink missions completed for 2025, space enthusiasts have noted that SpaceX has successfully launched 2,554 Starlink satellites so far this year.

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(Credit: Starlink)

SpaceX achieved its 100th Starlink mission of the year on Friday, October 31, marking another milestone for 2025. 

A Falcon 9 rocket carrying 28 Starlink broadband satellites successfully lifted off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California at 4:41 p.m. ET, carrying another 28 Starlink satellites to Low Earth Orbit (LEO).

Falcon 9 booster’s 29th flight

Roughly 8.5 minutes after liftoff, the Falcon 9’s first stage touched down on the drone ship Of Course I Still Love You in the Pacific Ocean. This marked the booster’s 29th flight, which is approaching SpaceX’s reuse record of 31 missions.

This latest mission adds to SpaceX’s impressive 138 Falcon 9 launches in 2025, 99 of which were dedicated to Starlink, according to Space.com. The company’s focus on reusing boosters has enabled this breakneck pace, with multiple launches each week supporting both Starlink’s expansion and external customers.

Starlink’s network continues massive global expansion

Starlink remains the largest active satellite constellation in history, with more than 10,000 satellites launched, nearly 8,800 of which are currently active. SpaceX recently achieved Starlink’s 10,000-satellite milestone. With 100 Starlink missions completed for 2025, space enthusiasts have noted that SpaceX has successfully launched 2,554 Starlink satellites so far this year.

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Starlink, which provides high-speed, low-latency internet connectivity even to the world’s most remote areas, has been proven to be life-changing technology for people across the globe. The service is currently operational in about 150 countries, and it currently has over 5 million subscribers worldwide. From this number, 2.7 million joined over the past year.

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Tesla shares updated timeframe for Cybertruck FSD V14 release

The Cybertruck was expected to receive FSD V14 before the end of the month, but Tesla was not able to meet the target.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) V14 update for the Cybertruck could arrive this weekend, as per recent comments from Director of Autopilot Software and VP of AI Ashok Elluswamy. 

The Cybertruck was expected to receive FSD V14 before the end of the month, but Tesla was not able to meet the target.

Cybertruck FSD V14

Considering the extended wait for FSD V14, it was no surprise that several Cybertruck owners were asking for updates about the system’s rollout to the all-electric pickup truck on Friday. These included the official Cybertruck X account, which responded to Elluswamy’s end of month estimate with “I only see trick. Where is my treat.” 

This prompted a response from the AI executive, who replied with, “Sorry, pushing for early access Cyber release over the weekend.” This means that if all goes well, Cybertruck owners would be able to experience FSD V14 very soon. Some, however, are wondering if Tesla would go straight to V14.2 for the Cybertruck’s FSD V14 update, or if the vehicle will receive V14.1 first. 

Tesla pushes to unify FSD experience across its lineup

The upcoming Cybertruck rollout represents the next step in Tesla’s efforts to roll out FSD capabilities across all of its vehicles. FSD V14 is a notable step forward for the company’s AI-driven self driving system, with features like Mad Max mode getting positive reviews from longtime Full Self Driving testers.

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For the Cybertruck, the FSD V14 update would mark one of its first major over-the-air upgrades for the vehicle. Likely due to its size, the Cybertruck tends to receive FSD updates later than the S3XY lineup, which is quite surprising considering that the all-electric pickup truck is a premium-priced vehicle that is home to some of Tesla’s most advanced technologies.

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