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SpaceX’s Elon Musk: odds of Starship reaching orbit by 2020 are “rising rapidly”
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has suggested that the company’s newly revamped Starship and Super Heavy rocket (previously known as BFR) could perform its first integrated launches – placing Starship into orbit – as few as 12-24 months from today.
Musk indicated that the odds of Starship reaching orbit as early as 2020 are now as high as “60% [and] rising rapidly”, thanks in no small part to the flurry of radical changes the spacecraft and booster have both undergone over the course of 2018.
Probability at 60% & rising rapidly due to new architecture
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 27, 2018
Combined with a decision – made public at a September 2018 media event – to delay the debut of a vacuum-optimized upper stage Raptor (RVac) and stick with its mature sea level variant, Musk apparently is quite confident that these dramatic shifts in strategy will allow SpaceX to aggressively slash the development schedules of its next-gen launch vehicle. Intriguingly, Musk noted that while these “radical” design changes were almost entirely motivated by his desire to expedite the fully-reusable rocket’s operational debut, it apparently became clear that the cheaper, faster, and easier iteration could actually end up being (in Musk’s own words) “dramatically better” than its exotic carbon-composite progenitor.
Time. Although it also turned out to be dramatically better.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 27, 2018

“Delightfully counter-intuitive”
Let there be little doubt – I am still immensely skeptical of this radical redesign and the implausible logistics of conducting said redesign at the last second while somehow maintaining the test schedule, let alone expediting it by 6-9 months. Despite the fact that Musk does seem to have a compellingly rational answer to every question thus far asked, he was no less convincing in mid-2016 when he stated with contagious conviction that Tesla’s Fremont factory would be an almost 100%-automated “alien dreadnought” as early as 2018. There is, of course, nothing wrong per se with being wrong, although taking 24 months and several hundred million dollars to realize as much can be downright fatal or at least a major health risk for any given company that faces such a challenge, as was the case with Tesla.
Skepticism aside, there are equally many reasons to be optimistic about the future of SpaceX’s Starship/Super Heavy (BFR) program over the next several years. Not only do metal hot structures have a proven track record of success (admittedly in the 1960s and for suborbital conditions, but still), but the century and a half humans have been making and building with steel serves to aggressively reduce risk in BFR’s development, whereas a giant, highly-reusable spaceship and rocket built mainly out of carbon composites is about as exotic, challenging, and alien as one could muster. One step further, Musk appears to be dead-set on the trade that the benefits of moving from composite to stainless steel far, far outweigh the costs.
- BFS/Starship shows off some of its heat shield. SpaceX may be looking into an advanced NASA solution for BFR’s thermal protection system. (SpaceX)
- Starship is shown here reentering Mars’ atmosphere at high speeds (SpaceX)
- Starship – in its 2018 design iteration – seen landing on Mars atop pillars of Raptor flame. (SpaceX)
- SpaceX CEO Elon Musk visited the South Texas site where Starship’s first prototype is being built on December 23rd. (Elon Musk)
- Starship… or BFWTF? 🙂 (NASASpaceflight /u/bocachicagal)
Most notably, Musk’s implication that a steel alloy skin – albeit with regenerative (i.e. liquid) cooling – could genuinely stand in for SpaceX’s ablative PICA-X heat shield technology on Starship was the most unintuitive but logical shift yet. Although steel alloys may literally have densities that are significantly higher than carbon composites, composites simply cannot (at least in the current state of the art) withstand high temperatures like those that Starship would inevitably experience during orbital and interplanetary reentries. As a result, Starship would need an extremely advanced heat shield technology that is minimally ablative, extremely lightweight, robust, and shock-resistant, not to mention an additional layer capable of mounting it to Starship’s composite hull while also insulating the propellant tanks and structure from the extreme heat of reentry.
Leeward side needs nothing, windward side will be activity cooled with residual (cryo) liquid methane, so will appear liquid silver even on hot side
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 25, 2018
Steel, on the other hand, is one of the least thermally conductive metals available, while also featuring alloys with melting points that can approach and even surpass 1500 degrees C. With regenerative cooling, it’s entirely possible that a hot steel shield and fusion of propellant tanks and load-bearing structures could ultimately result in a spaceship far more reusable, reliable, and perhaps even performant that a spaceship relying on exotic heat shield materials and linerless carbon composite propellant tanks.
Perhaps BFR Block 2 or 3 will make room for dramatically improved composite formulations and production methods down the road, but advanced steel and other metal alloys appear to be the way forward for SpaceX for the time being. For now, we can sit, watch, and wait as something comes together at the company’s South Texas test and launch facilities.
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Tesla launches first ‘true’ East Coast V4 Supercharger: here’s what that means
What truly distinguishes this installation from the hundreds of “V4” stalls already scattered across the network? Most existing V4 dispensers, rolled out since 2023, feature welcome upgrades like longer cables, built-in touchscreen displays, integrated credit-card readers for non-Tesla users, and improved ergonomics.
Tesla has launched its first “true” V4 Supercharger on the East Coast, and while that may be sort of confusing, here’s what we mean by that.
Tesla has opened its first true V4 Supercharging station on the East Coast in Kissimmee, Florida, just south of Orlando.
The eight-stall site, powered by an advanced 1.2 MW V4 power cabinet, is capable of delivering up to 500 kW, making it one of only four fully operational 500 kW-capable V4 stations in the United States.
Pricing is dynamic and competitive, as Tesla owners pay $0.40 per kWh during peak hours (8 a.m. to midnight), dropping to an attractive $0.20/kWh off-peak (midnight to 8 a.m.).
Non-Tesla EVs, which can now plug directly into the NACS ports thanks to the open standard, are charged a premium—$0.56/kWh peak and $0.28/kWh off-peak—reflecting Tesla’s strategy to monetize network access while rewarding its own customers.
What’s Makes This a “True” V4 Supercharger
What truly distinguishes this installation from the hundreds of “V4” stalls already scattered across the network? Most existing V4 dispensers, rolled out since 2023, feature welcome upgrades like longer cables, built-in touchscreen displays, integrated credit-card readers for non-Tesla users, and improved ergonomics.
However, nearly all of these have been paired with legacy V3 power cabinets. These hybrid setups, sometimes informally called V3.5, deliver charging curves virtually identical to standard V3 stations, typically topping out at 250-325 kW depending on the vehicle and site conditions.
In contrast, Kissimmee’s true V4 architecture incorporates next-generation 1.2 MW power cabinets. These support battery voltages up to 1,000 V (double the 500 V of V3 systems) and can push up to 500 kW per stall.
NEWS: Tesla has opened its first true V4 Supercharging station on the East Coast, capable of delivering up to 500 kW charging speeds.
• Location: Kissimmee, Florida (near Orlando)
• 8 charging stalls
• Fees for Tesla owners: $0.40/kWh ($0.20/kWh off-peak)
• Fees for all… pic.twitter.com/E8AkaibWsC— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) March 19, 2026
One compact cabinet efficiently powers all eight stalls, slashing the physical footprint and reportedly keeping deployment costs under $40,000 per stall, far cheaper than earlier designs.
Right now, the primary beneficiary is the Cybertruck, which can achieve dramatically faster charging at low states of charge.
Everyday models like the Model 3 and Model Y see little immediate difference in peak speeds, but the hardware lays the groundwork for future vehicles with higher-voltage batteries.
Tesla launches faster Cybertruck charging at all V4 Superchargers
This milestone signals Tesla’s accelerating push toward a high-power, future-proof Supercharger network.
As true V4 sites multiply, charging times will shrink, grid efficiency will improve, and the entire EV ecosystem, Tesla and non-Tesla alike, will benefit from the infrastructure lead Tesla continues to expand. For drivers in central Florida, the Kissimmee station is more than just another charging stop; it’s a glimpse of the faster, smarter charging era that’s finally arriving.
Elon Musk
Tesla reveals various improvements to the Semi in new piece with Jay Leno
Tesla Chief Designer Franz von Holzhausen and Semi Program Director Dan Priestley joined Leno in a 47-minute segment revealing all of the various things it did to make the Semi even better as it heads toward volume production this year.
Tesla has revealed the various improvements it has made to the Semi with its redesign, which was unveiled late last year, on a new episode of Jay Leno’s Garage.
Tesla Chief Designer Franz von Holzhausen and Semi Program Director Dan Priestley joined Leno in a 47-minute segment revealing all of the various things it did to make the Semi even better as it heads toward volume production this year.
Last year, Tesla revealed it had updated the Semi design to fit the bill of its aesthetic, which, on its other vehicles, includes things like lightbars and a sleeker and more aerodynamic design. The changes were not all to appease the eye, but the drivers who will use the Semi on a daily basis to haul goods regionally as the program gets off the ground running.
Weight Reduction
Priestley revealed almost immediately that Tesla was able to cut out about 1,000 pounds of weight from the Semi compared to the previous version.
This does several things, all of which are positive to the mission of a Class 8 truck, which is to haul goods and obtain more efficient travel to cut down on logistics costs.
Initially, this can increase payload capacity, which is often the biggest value driver for fleets that frequently hit gross vehicle weight limits. Tesla’s early Pilot Program members, like PepsiCo. and Frito-Lay, are large-scale companies. They will benefit from a decreased overall weight.
Lighter vehicles also require less energy to accelerate, climb hills, and maintain highway speeds. This new design has that advantage, and as Leno said in his first drive with the Semi as he hauled another unit behind, “I don’t feel like I’m pulling anything.”
Drag Coefficient
Franz said one of the goals of the Semi was to get the drag coefficient down below that of a Bugatti Veyron. This would increase efficiency tremendously, a major need with a large truck like a Semi.
Drag coefficient is extremely valuable when it comes to electric vehicles, because the displacement of air is incredibly important for range ratings.
Franz said aerodynamic efficiency has been improved by 7 percent compared to the last model. He says the coefficient is around 0.4.
New Features and Improvements
Priestley shed some additional light on the Semi and some of the improvements the company has made under the hood.
These include:
- Fully Electric Steering Assist
- Cybertruck actuators are being used for more strength
- Tesla included a 48-volt architecture
- Semi will utilize 4680 battery cells, which are designed to last 1 million miles
These changes come after Tesla rolled out the Semi to various companies for its Pilot Program, which yielded tremendous results. Due to the years it has been working with those companies, it knew what things it had to change and what it had to improve upon before selling the Semi openly.
Fleet Data
The fleet data Tesla has gathered from the Pilot Program has been one of the most widely discussed parts of the Semi program.
Franz and Priestley said that there are currently a few hundred Semi units in the real world, and Tesla has gathered 13.5 million miles. One of those units has traveled over 440,000 miles in the years it has been on the road.
Tesla Semi’s latest adoptee will likely encourage more of the same
Pilot Program members have reported an uptime of 95 percent, and Tesla’s maintenance and Service teams have kept things running:
“80% of breakdowns if you have one, are returned back to the customer in less than 24 hours, and half are back in less than 1 hour.”
Demand
Priestley says demand for the Semi has never been higher, and due to the recent political climate and the impact things have had on gas prices, Tesla has never received more inquiries for the Semi than it has recently.
Many companies will be surprised to hear that the Semi Pilot Program has been an overwhelming success. As Tesla begins to build out the infrastructure for the vehicle, it will only benefit the all-electric Class 8 trucks that keep things moving.
CEO Elon Musk said Tesla plans to start high-volume production this year. The company also plans to start deliveries this year.
News
Tesla launches amazing new feature for shared vehicles
Tesla has quietly introduced one of its most practical software features yet in update 2026.8: real-time visibility of the active driver profile directly in the Tesla mobile app. Available under the Security & Drivers section, this new tool lets owners see exactly who is behind the wheel or who last drove the vehicle.
Tesla is launching an amazing new feature for shared vehicles, giving owners more transparency when they choose to have a Tesla ownership experience with another driver.
This is one of the many advantages of having a Tesla. New features are constantly rolled out through software updates and Over-the-Air fixes, which download directly to the car with an internet connection.
Tesla has quietly introduced one of its most practical software features yet in update 2026.8: real-time visibility of the active driver profile directly in the Tesla mobile app. Available under the Security & Drivers section, this new tool lets owners see exactly who is behind the wheel or who last drove the vehicle.
The feature works seamlessly. While the car is driving, the app displays the name of the currently selected driver profile in real time.
When the vehicle is parked or asleep, it shows the last active profile.
Requiring both the 2026.8 vehicle software and the latest Tesla app, the update brings this capability to every model in the lineup, including legacy Model S and Model X vehicles, which are unfortunately being phased out of the company lineup later this year.
Tesla makes latest move to remove Model S and Model X from its lineup
The feature was first reported on by Not a Tesla App.
Tesla driver profiles have always excelled at personalization, automatically adjusting seat positions, mirrors, steering wheel height, climate settings, navigation recents and favorites, and media preferences.
These profiles link to specific phone keys for automatic activation and support PIN protection for privacy and security. Restricted profiles for teens can also limit speed or features.
This feature shines brightest in single-car households with multiple drivers. Families, couples, and roommates frequently share one Tesla, leading to constant adjustments and questions about settings. Now, a quick app check reveals the current profile, allowing users to anticipate seat configurations or confirm usage without entering the vehicle.
Tesla’s cloud-synced driver profiles to bring custom settings across multiple cars
Parents particularly benefit: they can verify that teens are driving under their assigned (and possibly restricted) profiles, adding a layer of safety oversight and peace of mind. Teslas are already so incredibly safe that many parents dream of putting their kids in one.
Two kids around the same age could now share a Tesla, and this feature would make that effort, which is likely to be a difficult one at times, more seamless.
Beyond convenience, it promotes accountability and reduces everyday friction. No more manual profile switching or arguments over mirror positions. Before approaching the car, anyone can check the app and know exactly what to expect, no more wasted minutes readjusting everything.
In multi-driver setups, it transforms the shared EV into a truly intelligent, user-aware machine that respects individual preferences while keeping the primary owner informed.
Tesla’s commitment to over-the-air updates continues to enhance ownership value years after purchase.
This small but significant addition highlights how software can solve real-world problems in multi-user environments, making Tesla vehicles more family-friendly and practical than ever. For the millions of owners sharing a single car, the 2026.8 update delivers transparency, time savings, enhanced safety, and effortless personalization. It is a great new feature that is rolling out to vehicles now.




