

News
SpaceX’s Elon Musk: odds of Starship reaching orbit by 2020 are “rising rapidly”
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has suggested that the company’s newly revamped Starship and Super Heavy rocket (previously known as BFR) could perform its first integrated launches – placing Starship into orbit – as few as 12-24 months from today.
Musk indicated that the odds of Starship reaching orbit as early as 2020 are now as high as “60% [and] rising rapidly”, thanks in no small part to the flurry of radical changes the spacecraft and booster have both undergone over the course of 2018.
Probability at 60% & rising rapidly due to new architecture
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 27, 2018
Combined with a decision – made public at a September 2018 media event – to delay the debut of a vacuum-optimized upper stage Raptor (RVac) and stick with its mature sea level variant, Musk apparently is quite confident that these dramatic shifts in strategy will allow SpaceX to aggressively slash the development schedules of its next-gen launch vehicle. Intriguingly, Musk noted that while these “radical” design changes were almost entirely motivated by his desire to expedite the fully-reusable rocket’s operational debut, it apparently became clear that the cheaper, faster, and easier iteration could actually end up being (in Musk’s own words) “dramatically better” than its exotic carbon-composite progenitor.
Time. Although it also turned out to be dramatically better.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 27, 2018

“Delightfully counter-intuitive”
Let there be little doubt – I am still immensely skeptical of this radical redesign and the implausible logistics of conducting said redesign at the last second while somehow maintaining the test schedule, let alone expediting it by 6-9 months. Despite the fact that Musk does seem to have a compellingly rational answer to every question thus far asked, he was no less convincing in mid-2016 when he stated with contagious conviction that Tesla’s Fremont factory would be an almost 100%-automated “alien dreadnought” as early as 2018. There is, of course, nothing wrong per se with being wrong, although taking 24 months and several hundred million dollars to realize as much can be downright fatal or at least a major health risk for any given company that faces such a challenge, as was the case with Tesla.
Skepticism aside, there are equally many reasons to be optimistic about the future of SpaceX’s Starship/Super Heavy (BFR) program over the next several years. Not only do metal hot structures have a proven track record of success (admittedly in the 1960s and for suborbital conditions, but still), but the century and a half humans have been making and building with steel serves to aggressively reduce risk in BFR’s development, whereas a giant, highly-reusable spaceship and rocket built mainly out of carbon composites is about as exotic, challenging, and alien as one could muster. One step further, Musk appears to be dead-set on the trade that the benefits of moving from composite to stainless steel far, far outweigh the costs.
- BFS/Starship shows off some of its heat shield. SpaceX may be looking into an advanced NASA solution for BFR’s thermal protection system. (SpaceX)
- Starship is shown here reentering Mars’ atmosphere at high speeds (SpaceX)
- Starship – in its 2018 design iteration – seen landing on Mars atop pillars of Raptor flame. (SpaceX)
- SpaceX CEO Elon Musk visited the South Texas site where Starship’s first prototype is being built on December 23rd. (Elon Musk)
- Starship… or BFWTF? 🙂 (NASASpaceflight /u/bocachicagal)
Most notably, Musk’s implication that a steel alloy skin – albeit with regenerative (i.e. liquid) cooling – could genuinely stand in for SpaceX’s ablative PICA-X heat shield technology on Starship was the most unintuitive but logical shift yet. Although steel alloys may literally have densities that are significantly higher than carbon composites, composites simply cannot (at least in the current state of the art) withstand high temperatures like those that Starship would inevitably experience during orbital and interplanetary reentries. As a result, Starship would need an extremely advanced heat shield technology that is minimally ablative, extremely lightweight, robust, and shock-resistant, not to mention an additional layer capable of mounting it to Starship’s composite hull while also insulating the propellant tanks and structure from the extreme heat of reentry.
Leeward side needs nothing, windward side will be activity cooled with residual (cryo) liquid methane, so will appear liquid silver even on hot side
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 25, 2018
Steel, on the other hand, is one of the least thermally conductive metals available, while also featuring alloys with melting points that can approach and even surpass 1500 degrees C. With regenerative cooling, it’s entirely possible that a hot steel shield and fusion of propellant tanks and load-bearing structures could ultimately result in a spaceship far more reusable, reliable, and perhaps even performant that a spaceship relying on exotic heat shield materials and linerless carbon composite propellant tanks.
Perhaps BFR Block 2 or 3 will make room for dramatically improved composite formulations and production methods down the road, but advanced steel and other metal alloys appear to be the way forward for SpaceX for the time being. For now, we can sit, watch, and wait as something comes together at the company’s South Texas test and launch facilities.
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News
SpaceX Ax-4 Mission prepares for ISS with new launch date
SpaceX, Axiom Space, and NASA set new launch date for the Ax-4 mission after addressing ISS & rocket concerns.

SpaceX is preparing for a new launch date for the Ax-4 mission to the International Space Station (ISS).
SpaceX, Axiom Space, and NASA addressed recent technical challenges and announced a new launch date of no earlier than Thursday, June 19, for the Ax-4 mission. The delay from June 12 allowed teams to assess repairs to small leaks in the ISS’s Zvezda service module.
NASA and Roscosmos have been monitoring leaks in the Zvezda module’s aft (back) segment for years. However, stable pressure could also result from air flowing across the hatch seal from the central station. As NASA and its partners adapt launch schedules to ensure station safety, adjustments are routine.
“Following the most recent repair, pressure in the transfer tunnel has been stable,” a source noted, suggesting the leaks may be sealed.
“By changing pressure in the transfer tunnel and monitoring over time, teams are evaluating the condition of the transfer tunnel and the hatch seal between the space station and the back of Zvezda,” the source added.
SpaceX has also resolved a liquid oxygen leak found during post-static fire inspections of the Falcon 9 rocket, completing a wet dress rehearsal to confirm readiness. The Ax-4 mission is Axiom Space’s fourth private astronaut trip to the ISS. It will launch from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida on a Falcon 9 rocket with a new Crew Dragon capsule.
“This is the first flight for this Dragon capsule, and it’s carrying an international crew—a perfect debut. We’ve upgraded storage, propulsion components, and the seat lash design for improved reliability and reuse,” said William Gerstenmaier, SpaceX’s vice president of build and flight reliability.
The Ax-4 mission crew is led by Peggy Whitson, Axiom Space’s director of human spaceflight and former NASA astronaut. The Ax-4 crew includes ISRO astronaut Shubhanshu Shukla as pilot, alongside mission specialists Sławosz Uznański-Wiśniewski from Poland and Tibor Kapu from Hungary. The international team underscores Axiom’s commitment to global collaboration.
The Ax-4 mission will advance scientific research during its ISS stay, supporting Axiom’s goal of building a commercial space station. As teams finalize preparations, the mission’s updated launch date and technical resolutions position it to strengthen private space exploration’s role in advancing space-based innovation.
News
Sweden blocks Tesla FSD-style testing in Stockholm
It looks like FSD testing in Sweden would have to wait some time.

Tesla is putting a lot of effort into getting its Full Self Driving (FSD) system approved in territories outside North America. But while China seems to have embraced FSD fully, other countries like Sweden do not seem to be receiving Tesla’s automated driving system very well.
This became quite evident in a document from Stockholm City, which has started making the rounds online.
FSD Testing Rejected
The document, which was initially shared by X user @KRoelandschap, indicated that the Swedish Traffic Department in Stockholm had rejected Tesla’s request to start FSD testing in the city’s streets. Tesla has been demonstrating FSD in several areas across Europe, so it is not surprising that the company is also attempting to test its automated driving system in Sweden.
Unfortunately for Tesla, Sweden might prove to be a tough nut to crack. As per the City of Stockholm:
“The Traffic Office is currently working on updating its approach to automation. At the same time, the city and the office are under heavy pressure from other ongoing innovation tests. Our ambition is to actively participate in and learn from the continued development in the field of automation.
“Based on this, and in combination with the fact that the current test is the first of its kind, which entails certain risks for both infrastructure and third parties, and that it is planned to be carried out throughout the city, the City of Stockholm considers it is currently not possible to approve the implementation of the test.”


Tesla’s Other Swedish Troubles
Sweden’s FSD testing rejection is not the only roadblock facing Tesla in the country. Since October 2023, Swedish unions have been engaged in an active effort to disrupt Tesla’s operations. The unions’ efforts have been varied, with some resulting in Tesla having difficulty launching more Superchargers in Sweden. Despite this, Tesla has remained stubborn and has refused to bow to the unions’ demands.
Fortunately for Tesla, it seems like its numbers are still strong. Despite the company’s decline in several European countries, the new Model Y is starting to see strong sales figures in Sweden. In early May alone, the new Model Y became the country’s most popular electric vehicle—a notable accomplishment considering the unions’ active efforts to disrupt Tesla.
News
Tesla firmware shows new Model Y seat configuration is coming
Tesla could be adding another seating configuration beside the seven-seater to the Model Y lineup later this year.

Tesla firmware has been a great place for some to reveal what the company has in the pipeline, and a new seating configuration for the best-selling Model Y looks to be on the way.
Last week, we reported that Tesla was already hinting toward a 7-seater configuration of the Model Y in a promotional email it sent to those on its contact list.
However, firmware revealed by Tesla hacker greentheonly is showing that a new seating configuration is on the way — a six-seater:
The much rumored about 6-seater Model Y made an appearance in the firmware.
Unlikely to be China-only as some of the speculations said.Some weird “slow down to save energy, people typically drive this much slower here to save %%” nav suggestions.
— green (@greentheonly) June 16, 2025
Green says the configuration would not be available in China-only, and will be potentially for sale in other markets as well.
The six-seat and seven-seat configurations of the Model Y were available in the Legacy version of the vehicle, but were met with mixed reviews, as many complained about the lack of legroom in the third row.
This was something that was a real concern for many of those owners who needed something larger than the traditional five-seat variant, but did not want to buy the much more pricey Model X.
We’ve covered the size of that third row on several occasions.
Some owners even took the idea of having a seven-seater into their own hands:
Tesla Model Y third row seat test explores options for a comfortable 7-seat setup
Tesla did not explicitly announce a six-seater configuration of the Model Y, but Lars Moravy, the company’s VP of Vehicle Engineering, said the seven-seater would come to production later in 2025.
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