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SpaceX’s Elon Musk: odds of Starship reaching orbit by 2020 are “rising rapidly”

Starship is visualized here landing on Mars. Initial Texas hop tests will likely look similar, albeit in Earth gravity and over concrete. (SpaceX)

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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has suggested that the company’s newly revamped Starship and Super Heavy rocket (previously known as BFR) could perform its first integrated launches – placing Starship into orbit – as few as 12-24 months from today.

Musk indicated that the odds of Starship reaching orbit as early as 2020 are now as high as “60% [and] rising rapidly”, thanks in no small part to the flurry of radical changes the spacecraft and booster have both undergone over the course of 2018.

Combined with a decision – made public at a September 2018 media event – to delay the debut of a vacuum-optimized upper stage Raptor (RVac) and stick with its mature sea level variant, Musk apparently is quite confident that these dramatic shifts in strategy will allow SpaceX to aggressively slash the development schedules of its next-gen launch vehicle. Intriguingly, Musk noted that while these “radical” design changes were almost entirely motivated by his desire to expedite the fully-reusable rocket’s operational debut, it apparently became clear that the cheaper, faster, and easier iteration could actually end up being (in Musk’s own words) “dramatically better” than its exotic carbon-composite progenitor.

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BFS arrives at Mars. (SpaceX)

“Delightfully counter-intuitive”

Let there be little doubt – I am still immensely skeptical of this radical redesign and the implausible logistics of conducting said redesign at the last second while somehow maintaining the test schedule, let alone expediting it by 6-9 months. Despite the fact that Musk does seem to have a compellingly rational answer to every question thus far asked, he was no less convincing in mid-2016 when he stated with contagious conviction that Tesla’s Fremont factory would be an almost 100%-automated “alien dreadnought” as early as 2018. There is, of course, nothing wrong per se with being wrong, although taking 24 months and several hundred million dollars to realize as much can be downright fatal or at least a major health risk for any given company that faces such a challenge, as was the case with Tesla.

Skepticism aside, there are equally many reasons to be optimistic about the future of SpaceX’s Starship/Super Heavy (BFR) program over the next several years. Not only do metal hot structures have a proven track record of success (admittedly in the 1960s and for suborbital conditions, but still), but the century and a half humans have been making and building with steel serves to aggressively reduce risk in BFR’s development, whereas a giant, highly-reusable spaceship and rocket built mainly out of carbon composites is about as exotic, challenging, and alien as one could muster. One step further, Musk appears to be dead-set on the trade that the benefits of moving from composite to stainless steel far, far outweigh the costs.

 

Most notably, Musk’s implication that a steel alloy skin – albeit with regenerative (i.e. liquid) cooling – could genuinely stand in for SpaceX’s ablative PICA-X heat shield technology on Starship was the most unintuitive but logical shift yet. Although steel alloys may literally have densities that are significantly higher than carbon composites, composites simply cannot (at least in the current state of the art) withstand high temperatures like those that Starship would inevitably experience during orbital and interplanetary reentries. As a result, Starship would need an extremely advanced heat shield technology that is minimally ablative, extremely lightweight, robust, and shock-resistant, not to mention an additional layer capable of mounting it to Starship’s composite hull while also insulating the propellant tanks and structure from the extreme heat of reentry.

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Steel, on the other hand, is one of the least thermally conductive metals available, while also featuring alloys with melting points that can approach and even surpass 1500 degrees C. With regenerative cooling, it’s entirely possible that a hot steel shield and fusion of propellant tanks and load-bearing structures could ultimately result in a spaceship far more reusable, reliable, and perhaps even performant that a spaceship relying on exotic heat shield materials and linerless carbon composite propellant tanks.

Perhaps BFR Block 2 or 3 will make room for dramatically improved composite formulations and production methods down the road, but advanced steel and other metal alloys appear to be the way forward for SpaceX for the time being. For now, we can sit, watch, and wait as something comes together at the company’s South Texas test and launch facilities.


For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla counters Norway’s VAT hike with dedicated consumer bonus

The move follows Tesla Norway’s stunning finish in 2025, where the company saw substantial sales during the final weeks of the year.

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Credit: Tesla Europe & Middle East/X

Tesla has rolled out a price incentive in Norway, effectively offsetting a notable VAT increase that hit electric vehicle buyers at the start of 2026.

The move follows Tesla Norway’s stunning finish in 2025, where the company saw substantial sales during the final weeks of the year.

A “Tesla bonus”

Once the VAT increase kicked in at the start of 2026, Tesla Norway’s sales cooled almost immediately, as noted in a CarUp report. Tesla’s response was swift, with the electric vehicle maker rolling out what it calls a “Tesla bonus.”

This bonus effectively cuts prices by up to 50,000 kronor across eight model variants. All versions of the Tesla Model Y qualify for the incentive, along with most Tesla Model 3 trims, save for the base entry-level model.

This means that for Tesla Norway’s best-selling vehicles, the bonus effectively restores pricing to pre-VAT levels. This blunts the impact of the new tax and makes Tesla’s vehicle offerings competitive again in Europe’s most EV-saturated market.

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Stabilizing demand

In addition to the “Tesla bonus,” the electric car maker is also offering a promotional interest rate for up to three years, with terms varying by model. The incentive applies to orders placed between January 9 and March 31, 2026, with delivery required by the end of the first quarter.

The stakes are high in Norway, where electric vehicles dominate new-car registrations. From the vehicles that were sold in 2025, 96% of new cars sold were fully electric. And from this number, Tesla and its Model Y made their dominance felt. This was highlighted by Geir Inge Stokke, director of OFV, who noted that Tesla was able to achieve its stellar results despite its small vehicle lineup.

“Taking almost 20% market share during a year with record-high new car sales is remarkable in itself. When a brand also achieves such volumes with so few models, it says a lot about both demand and Tesla’s impact on the Norwegian market,” Stokke stated.

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SpaceX gains favor as Pentagon embraces Musk-style defense reform

The remarks highlighted Musk’s improving relationship with the White House, as well as SpaceX’s growing role in U.S. defense.

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Credit: @SecWar/X

SpaceX emerged as a clear beneficiary of the Trump administration’s renewed push to accelerate military innovation, as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth openly praised Elon Musk’s private space enterprise during a visit to the company’s Starbase launch site in Texas. 

The remarks highlighted Musk’s improving relationship with the White House, as well as SpaceX’s growing role in U.S. defense.

Hegseth embraces Elon Musk’s pace

Speaking at SpaceX’s Starbase facility in Brownsville, Texas, Hegseth criticized what he described as a “risk-averse culture” among traditional defense contractors and called for faster innovation modeled after Musk’s approach. He confirmed that the Department of Defense plans to integrate Musk’s Grok AI platform into Pentagon systems, which is part of the administration’s efforts to make the U.S. military an “AI-first warfighting force.”

Hegseth stated that the Pentagon intends to deploy AI models across both classified and unclassified networks, signaling a willingness to push past earlier efforts to limit military use of artificial intelligence. His comments aligned closely with President Donald Trump’s recent call for a $500 billion increase in defense spending, Bloomberg News noted. Trump has also warned major contractors that slower production and shareholder-focused practices could put future contracts at risk.

While Hegseth criticized legacy defense firms, SpaceX was held up as an example of how aggressive timelines, vertical integration, and iterative development could reshape defense strategies. “We need to be blunt here; we can no longer afford to wait a decade for our legacy prime contractors to deliver a perfect system. Winning requires a new playbook. Elon wrote it with his algorithm: question every requirement, delete the dumb ones and accelerate like hell,” Hegseth said.

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SpaceX’s expanding defense role comes into focus

SpaceX has become one of the U.S. government’s most important aerospace partners. The company holds roughly $4 billion in NASA contracts to develop Starship into a lunar lander, while also serving as a key launch provider for sensitive national security payloads using its Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets.

During the visit, Musk highlighted that his ambitions extend beyond defense contracts, reiterating long-term goals of interplanetary travel and eventual exploration beyond the solar system. Still, the optics of the event reinforced how closely SpaceX’s capabilities now align with U.S. strategic priorities.

The appearance also marked another step in Musk’s political rehabilitation after a public falling-out with the White House last year. Since leaving his role leading the Department of Government Efficiency, Musk has gradually reengaged with the administration, reconnecting with U.S. President Donald Trump during slain conservative activist Charlie Kirk’s tribute and attending events at the White House. Trump’s also recently suggested that Starlink could help restore internet access in Iran.

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Tesla Model Y gets fresh configuration with three highly requested features

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has launched a new Model Y configuration in the “Premium” trim, and it comes with three highly requested features that have launched in markets outside of the U.S. and in other trims.

Tesla announced on Monday night that it has officially launched the Model Y Premium in a seven-seat configuration, which also comes standard with a 16″ touchscreen and black headliner, both of which are featured in the Model Y Performance trim.

The seven-seat configuration is highly requested by consumers and helps fill out the more spacious SUV offering that the lineup has missed outside of the Model X, which prices out many consumers. This new upgrade only costs $2,500 extra for all three features, bringing the cash price to $48,990.

The move to add the seven-seat configuration with the black headliner and additional screen size is a welcome addition, as many Tesla fans have asked the company to come out with an SUV with more seating capacity. Although it is not a full-size SUV, the additional seating will certainly attract some buyers with bigger families.

It appears the third row is slightly more spacious than the past iteration of the seven-seat Model Y, which was available in the previous design pre-Juniper:

 

Credit: Tesla

However, it definitely still appears to be pretty cramped in terms of legroom. It will definitely be a seating arrangement for smaller passengers, mostly reserved for children.

The other two upgrades are the black headliner, which was launched in other markets and in the Model Y Performance. Many owners have wanted this change, and Tesla listened, but is only offering it with the seven-seat configuration. It also has a larger 16″ touchscreen, also present in the Model Y Performance exclusively:

Credit: Tesla

It is a nice touch to add these highly requested features to the all-electric crossover, which was the best-selling vehicle in the world for the third consecutive year.

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