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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk promises long-awaited Starship update next week
While running behind schedule in classic fashion, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says he’ll present the first big Starship program update in two and a half years on Thursday, February 10th.
Additionally, as an apparent centerpiece for the event and update, Musk says that SpaceX will perform the second-ever “full stack” fit test with a Starship upper stage and Super Heavy booster.
Starship S20 and Super Heavy booster B4 were stacked for the first time in early August 2021, when both stages were still weeks or even months away from some degree of completion. Only months later did Starship S20 kick off a multi-month period of qualification tests, eventually becoming the first Starship prototype to successfully test a full six Raptor engines at once. Super Heavy B4, on the other hand, had an even more painful time for unknown reasons and only graduated to basic cryogenic proof testing in mid-December – more than four months later.
While the booster has had a full 29 Raptor 1 engines installed for months, the booster has yet to perform or attempt a single static fire of any number of those engines and hasn’t even managed a basic wet dress rehearsal with real liquid oxygen and methane propellant. Eventually, SpaceX did perform a handful of Booster 4 Raptor ignition tests, but those were almost more of a test of the launch pad than Super Heavy itself. The slow and minimal progress SpaceX has made testing Super Heavy B4 may actually be because of issues with orbital launch pad’s tank farm design. To this day, while the oxygen and nitrogen half of the farm are already storing thousands of tons of propellant and coolant, the fuel side of the same farm has yet to be filled with any methane. That makes thoroughly testing a Super Heavy booster much harder, though there are some obvious workarounds SpaceX could have made if it had really wanted to start proof testing Booster 4 as soon as possible.
In fact, it’s no longer clear if Ship 20 and Booster 4 will actually get to fulfill their original goal of supporting Starship’s first orbital (velocity) test flight. Nonetheless, they are still two giant, nearly completed stages that together form a full Starship ‘stack.’
Heading into 2022, SpaceX appears to be more focused on testing a somewhat extraneous part of the first orbital Starship launch site – “chopstick” arms installed on the launch tower. SpaceX’s current Starship ‘launch tower’ design centers around the need for three giant swinging arms – one to fuel and power Starship and the other two to lift, stack, and – maybe one day – catch Super Heavy boosters and ships. Had SpaceX stayed true to the original Starship/BFR/ITS design, the booster would have been fueled through the launch mount and Starship would have been fueled through a connection with the booster, significantly simplifying the tower.
In theory, replacing that design with a complex, building-sized umbilical arm might ultimately improve Starship’s nominal payload to orbit by a few percent. Additionally, using the even more complex “chopsticks” – a pair of giant arms – to lift and stack Super Heavy and Starship may actually be a smart design, as it could theoretically free SpaceX from the painful operational constraints imposed by large cranes.
By all appearances, that’s exactly what SpaceX plans to test next week. Starship S20 has already been moved adjacent to the launch tower and Super Heavy B4 has been attached to a crane (somewhat ironically) in preparation for its own move to the tower. For the first time, SpaceX might use the tower arms to lift Super Heavy onto the orbital launch mount, stabilize the booster, and then lift and stack Starship on top of it – all without a crane, in theory. Of course, insofar as SpaceX performed the first full-stack fit test with a crane, the tower’s lift/catch arms only really become irreplaceable once waiting a few days for safe lift conditions becomes a bottleneck for Starship launch operations.
Nonetheless, a successful stacking operation with those arms would be an impressive technical feat and demonstrate one of the things needed for all-weather Starship launch operations, even if it won’t leave SpaceX any closer to orbital test flights than it was before.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reported its earnings for the third quarter of 2026, marking a reasonable performance on the various financial metrics. Tesla still plans to hold a call that will field investor questions at 5:30 p.m. ET, 4:30 p.m. CT.
Here’s where Earnings came in:
- Total Revenues: $28.046 reported vs. $28.34B expected
- Non-GAAP EPS: $0.48 reported vs. $0.45 expected
- Operating Margin: 2.6 % reported vs. 2.5% expected
- Operating Income: $718M reported vs. $721M expected
- Free Cash Flow: $1.531B reported vs. ~-$4.51B expected
Tesla $TSLA Earnings Results:
Revenues: $28.046B
Non-GAAP EPS: $0.48
Operating Margin: 2.6%
Operating Income: $718M
FCF: $1.531B— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 21, 2026
Major Takeaways
Full Self-Driving (Supervised)
“FSD (Supervised)⁴ attach rate continued to grow, reaching over 75% of new vehicle deliveries in North America – our most mature market – a nearly twenty percentage point sequential increase. We believe that FSD is driving demand in markets where it is available, and we continue to work with regulators to get it approved in other markets.”
Tesla Semi
“We began volume production of Tesla Semi, our Class 8 heavy-duty truck. The top variant can go 500 miles at full 82,000 lbs gross combination weight while achieving an efficiency of 1.7 kWh/mile. That efficiency allows the Tesla Semi to use a third of the energy used by a comparable diesel truck to haul the same payload. In a transportation market where energy is one of the largest components of total cost per mile, this will provide a meaningful advantage to Tesla Semi operators.”
SI Compute
“We plan to reach 400 MW of SI training compute by the end of the year, supporting the development of both vehicle and humanoid robot autonomy software. Additionally, we continued construction for the Austin Fab, where we plan to start commissioning equipment in 2027.”
Robotaxi
“We began deployment of Cybercab into our Robotaxi fleet in Austin. We reached nearly two million cumulative unsupervised miles for our Robotaxi service as of the end of the quarter. Operating hours in Austin are now 6am to midnight, and we expect to reduce wait times via increased fleet supply and improvement of Robotaxi orchestration algorithms. Grok is available in Cybercab with access to Grok Bot and Connectors, which allows users to manage their inbox, calendars, files, chats and tasks – all hands free via voice command – making Cybercab a mode of transport, a productivity space and, with our entertainment options, a second living room.”
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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reports its earnings for Q3 today. Here’s what to expect, as the company will reveal its balance sheet after the market closes on Wednesday.
Tesla already reported deliveries just after Q3 ended, and it demolished Wall Street consensus estimates of roughly 462,000 vehicles. Tesla delivered 486,532 cars in the third quarter, which was a big beat, but was down 2.1 percent from the same quarter last year. Energy storage deployments were 13.7 GWh, up year-over-year.
Tesla showrooms picked clean ahead of Q3 end as demand looks strong
For the quarter, analysts have already compiled their predictions for what Tesla will report this afternoon:
- Total Revenues: $28.34B
- Non-GAAP EPS: $0.43
- Operating Margin: 2.5%
- Operating Income: $721M
- Free Cash Flow: ~-$4.51B
Here are a few things we are looking forward to hearing about on the call:
Automotive Gross Margin and Overall Profitability
This was 16.3 percent in Q2, down from 19.2 percent in Q1, and was impacted by warranty charges and some fading regulatory credits. Consensus implies overall gross margin near 18 percent, but a miss here would potentially reinforce concerns about pricing pressure on its vehicles.
Pay attention to energy storage margins as well, especially since Tesla missed GWh expectations, although it was still a strong quarter.
Robotaxi/Cybercab, Unsupervised FSD, and Optimus Progress
The Say questions from retail investors usually focus on these types of projects, and this quarter is no different. Scaling the Cybercab fleet beyond Austin amid the open NHTSA safety review, timeline for Unsupervised FSD in customer cars, Robotaxi unit economics, and Optimus cost per unit plus when it could start generating revenue, are all things to be looking for.
Any concrete timelines or regulatory path details will likely move the stock more than the near-term numbers. SpaceX merger speculation, which was detailed during SpaceX’s earnings call last night, may also surface, although the key details were shared last night.
Elon Musk just confirmed the Tesla and SpaceX merger step everyone was waiting for
Say Investor Questions
- How does the Cybercab fleet scale past Austin, and what’s the regulatory path outside Texas given NHTSA’s open safety review?
- When can we anticipate FSD unsupervised in customer cars?
- When will the CyberCab be available for customer purchase/ownership?
- What’s the unit economics per paid robotaxi mile, and how does it compare to the thirty-cent target?
- Tesla has acknowledged that HW3 vehicles cannot support unsupervised FSD. When will owners know whether they can upgrade their hardware for free, and when will Tesla provide a clear plan?
The full Earnings Call will be streamed this evening after market close around 5 p.m. this evening.
SpaceX confirmed the date of Starship’s 15th launch window with some massive ambitions for the mission, as it will attempt to catch Ship for the first time.
CEO Elon Musk confirmed during SpaceX’s Earnings Call last night on October 20 that it would launch Starship for its 15th test flight in November, and there are some incredible things the company wants to try, making it perhaps the most groundbreaking launch in the program’s history.
SpaceX delivers blockbuster Q3 results as Super Intelligence segment booms
The most major development of the call was SpaceX’s intention to catch Ship alongside catching the Super Heavy Booster, something that has happened in the past. SpaceX showed an animation of the Ship catch, which will be done on the launch tower’s chopsticks:
SpaceX has released a new Starship tower catch animation for the upcoming Flight 15! https://t.co/kStn01Da8u
— Truthful🛰️ (@Truthful_ast) October 20, 2026
This monumental goal is to catch both the Ship and Booster in a dual-catch scenario, an incredible feat since SpaceX has never been able to reuse a Ship after launch. Musk said it would be “the first time that an orbital launch vehicle has been fully recovered,” and said it would be a “profound technology milestone.”
Musk said the odds of success on this first Ship catch attempt are “more likely than not,” but SpaceX is ultimately prepared for more tries moving forward. The SpaceX frontman said that, starting next year, Starship would have a “steady stream” of flights through the end of the year.
The cadence will accelerate in 2027, with Musk stating the company plans to target weekly flights in the first half of 2027 and twice-weekly by year-end.
The Flight 15 attempt follows that of Flight 14, which took off in late September and was Starship’s first orbital mission. It deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites, accomplished a controlled ocean splashdown of both stages, and shed more light on potential challenges for the program moving forward.
As of now, the Starship program is firing on all cylinders.
Interested in ordering a Tesla? Use my referral code for three free months of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) here.
Tesla Q3 2026 Earnings results: in-line revenues, slight beat on EPS
Tesla reports Q3 Earnings today: here’s what to expect
