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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk wants to use Starships as Earth-to-Earth transports
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk indicates that the company is analyzing the use of single-stage Starship spacecraft as a potential pillar of its rapid Earth-to-Earth transport ambitions, meant to realize hypersonic mass-transit at “business-class” prices.
The consequences of such a move are varied but the gist is fairly simple: by cutting down on the complexity of the hardware and infrastructure involved, Earth-based transport via reusable rockets immediately becomes a far more intriguing (and plausible) proposition. Huge challenges remain, but many of those challenges could potentially become identical to those that Starship must already face to achieve SpaceX’s ultimate goal of Mars colonization.
As discussed on Teslarati just ~24 hours ago, using extremely large rockets to quickly, reliably, and safely transport humans around the Earth sounds great on paper but runs into a huge number of brick walls after just a cursory analysis. The single most important aspect of any high-volume form of mass transit is passenger safety – if a method consistently demonstrates that it is likely to kill passengers, it will die a very quick death to public opinion and regulatory fury.
From a statistical standpoint, rockets are thousands of times less safe than passenger aircraft, in large part due to their complexity and cost. As it turns out, an almost invariably foolproof method of improving the safety of a given thing is reducing its complexity (within moderation, of course). The fewer the parts there are, the fewer the parts that can fail and the easier (and cheaper) gathering data and evidence will be.
Originally, SpaceX’s 2017 Earth-to-Earth concept relied on a full two-stage BFR rocket (now Starship/Super Heavy) that could transport passengers anywhere on Earth in 30-60 minutes. Expected to launch off of giant, floating platforms, boosters would launch and land on the same platform while sending Starships on there way around the world. Starships would head to identical platforms at their destination and land directly beside that platform’s booster.
In general, this concept at least seemed serviceable, even if it didn’t exactly scream “practical solution!” Thankfully, much like BFR itself has radically changed in the last 18 or so months, it appears that SpaceX’s concept of Starship-based Earth transportation services has also continued to evolve. According to Musk’s May 30th tweets on the subject, one obvious method of improving the viability of the concept involves entirely removing the booster (Super Heavy) from the picture.
In an instant, SpaceX’s concept of Earth-to-Earth transport starts to look more like an exotic version of proposed supersonic and hypersonic transport solutions. By leaning on lone Starship spacecraft, incapable of reaching orbit by themselves, Musk believes that SpaceX could transport passengers up to ~10,000 km at speeds as high as “Mach 20” (6.9 km/s, 15,500 mph). This is undeniably a downgrade from “anywhere on Earth in less than an hour”, but it would still easily trounce any existing mode of transport and could potentially lend itself to actual suborbital spaceports located in key areas.
At the speeds described, SpaceX could offer ~20-minute trips from New York City to London or ~40-minute trips from Los Angeles to Tokyo as just two examples. Lack of range would certainly limit the potential utility and ubiquity of such a transport service, but there are undeniably enough niche markets to sustain something like that. By relying entirely on Starship, transportation could become far similar to airliner-style travel, while keeping speeds well below orbital velocity would give the spacecraft’s heat shield a much easier time.
For now, at least, the SpaceX dream of global, hypersonic mass-transit is clearly still alive and well, even if the hurdles ahead of it remain no less imposing. According to President and COO Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX could begin offering Earth-to-Earth transport services as early as 2025, if not earlier with Musk’s proposed Starship-only variant.
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Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
Tesla stock closes at all-time high on heels of Robotaxi progress
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
