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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk wants to use Starships as Earth-to-Earth transports
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk indicates that the company is analyzing the use of single-stage Starship spacecraft as a potential pillar of its rapid Earth-to-Earth transport ambitions, meant to realize hypersonic mass-transit at “business-class” prices.
The consequences of such a move are varied but the gist is fairly simple: by cutting down on the complexity of the hardware and infrastructure involved, Earth-based transport via reusable rockets immediately becomes a far more intriguing (and plausible) proposition. Huge challenges remain, but many of those challenges could potentially become identical to those that Starship must already face to achieve SpaceX’s ultimate goal of Mars colonization.
As discussed on Teslarati just ~24 hours ago, using extremely large rockets to quickly, reliably, and safely transport humans around the Earth sounds great on paper but runs into a huge number of brick walls after just a cursory analysis. The single most important aspect of any high-volume form of mass transit is passenger safety – if a method consistently demonstrates that it is likely to kill passengers, it will die a very quick death to public opinion and regulatory fury.
From a statistical standpoint, rockets are thousands of times less safe than passenger aircraft, in large part due to their complexity and cost. As it turns out, an almost invariably foolproof method of improving the safety of a given thing is reducing its complexity (within moderation, of course). The fewer the parts there are, the fewer the parts that can fail and the easier (and cheaper) gathering data and evidence will be.
Originally, SpaceX’s 2017 Earth-to-Earth concept relied on a full two-stage BFR rocket (now Starship/Super Heavy) that could transport passengers anywhere on Earth in 30-60 minutes. Expected to launch off of giant, floating platforms, boosters would launch and land on the same platform while sending Starships on there way around the world. Starships would head to identical platforms at their destination and land directly beside that platform’s booster.
In general, this concept at least seemed serviceable, even if it didn’t exactly scream “practical solution!” Thankfully, much like BFR itself has radically changed in the last 18 or so months, it appears that SpaceX’s concept of Starship-based Earth transportation services has also continued to evolve. According to Musk’s May 30th tweets on the subject, one obvious method of improving the viability of the concept involves entirely removing the booster (Super Heavy) from the picture.
In an instant, SpaceX’s concept of Earth-to-Earth transport starts to look more like an exotic version of proposed supersonic and hypersonic transport solutions. By leaning on lone Starship spacecraft, incapable of reaching orbit by themselves, Musk believes that SpaceX could transport passengers up to ~10,000 km at speeds as high as “Mach 20” (6.9 km/s, 15,500 mph). This is undeniably a downgrade from “anywhere on Earth in less than an hour”, but it would still easily trounce any existing mode of transport and could potentially lend itself to actual suborbital spaceports located in key areas.
At the speeds described, SpaceX could offer ~20-minute trips from New York City to London or ~40-minute trips from Los Angeles to Tokyo as just two examples. Lack of range would certainly limit the potential utility and ubiquity of such a transport service, but there are undeniably enough niche markets to sustain something like that. By relying entirely on Starship, transportation could become far similar to airliner-style travel, while keeping speeds well below orbital velocity would give the spacecraft’s heat shield a much easier time.
For now, at least, the SpaceX dream of global, hypersonic mass-transit is clearly still alive and well, even if the hurdles ahead of it remain no less imposing. According to President and COO Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX could begin offering Earth-to-Earth transport services as early as 2025, if not earlier with Musk’s proposed Starship-only variant.
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Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
