Years before the space agency’s flagship Europa Clipper mission is scheduled to lift off, NASA and SpaceX are already determining the specifics of the launch – including which Falcon Heavy boosters will support it.
On July 23rd, 2021, after years of rumors, NASA officially announced that it no longer planned to launch Europa Clipper on its own SLS rocket and would instead contract with SpaceX to send the spacecraft to Jupiter on a Falcon Heavy. In terms of sheer prestige, no other mission on Falcon Heavy’s manifest comes close. Expected to weigh around six tons (~13,000 lb), Europa Clipper is a building-sized spacecraft that aims to orbit Jupiter for years, performing dozens of flybys of the planet’s icy moons – several of which almost certainly have liquid oceans.
Europa – the mission’s namesake – is its primary focus and whether or not the funding or political motivation for such an ambitious mission transpires, Europa Clipper was always partially meant to be a scouting mission for a nuclear-powered lander. On its own, though, Clipper has already blown past its original $2B budget target from 2013 and is now on track to cost more than $4.5B, making it the most expensive NASA mission currently in development – second only to the ~$9B James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). In other words, NASA is entrusting SpaceX to launch what is perhaps the most expensive mission to the outer solar system in the history of planetary exploration.
That makes it all the more noteworthy that NASA has already given the okay for SpaceX to plan to launch Europa Clipper on a Falcon Heavy rocket with at least two of its three boosters already flight-proven. According to mission scientist Bob Pappalardo, Clipper Mission Design Lead Brett Buffington revealed in spacecraft “System Integration Review” that SpaceX intends to reuse two Falcon Heavy side boosters that are currently scheduled to debut as early as next year on a different NASA mission. Known as Psyche, that mission – also scheduled to fly on Falcon Heavy – is scheduled to launch no earlier than (NET) August 2022 and is designed to explore an asteroid that’s believed to be almost entirely composed of metal.
With Europa Clipper scheduled to launch NET October 2024, that undoubtedly makes this the earliest a Falcon booster assignment has ever been confirmed – and probably the earliest SpaceX itself has assigned flight-proven boosters to a specific mission. It also makes those particular boosters quite special. Unlike Psyche, which will leave plenty of margin for SpaceX to recover at least two of Falcon Heavy’s three boosters, Europa Clipper will need almost every ounce of performance the rocket can give to send the much larger spacecraft much faster and further. Barring a major surprise, that means that Falcon Heavy will launch Europa Clipper in a fully expendable configuration.
For SpaceX, being able to use at least two flight-proven proven boosters on that expendable mission will make expending two Falcon Heavy boosters – which are otherwise capable of launching at least ten times in their lifetimes – a much easier pill to swallow. For NASA, the space agency is likely already familiar with the reality that flight-proven hardware actually improves schedule confidence, which is crucial for a mission like Europa Clipper thanks to its 21-day launch window.
Nonetheless, it does still raise the question of whether NASA will allow SpaceX to fly Psyche’s Falcon Heavy side boosters once or even twice more in the more than two years they’ll otherwise have to spend in storage between Psyche and Europa Clipper. A Falcon Heavy rocket is currently scheduled to launch a commercial Moon lander and NASA’s VIPER Moon rover as early as Q4 2023. Most recently, NASA purchased a Falcon Heavy to launch NOAA’s GOES-U weather satellite NET Q2 2024. In 2022 alone, SpaceX also has at least three other non-NASA missions scheduled to launch before Psyche, raising another possibility that Psyche itself might fly on once-flown boosters that would then fly a third, fourth, or even fifth time with Europa Clipper.
That might seem like an unlikely possibility but NASA has already shown that it’s happy to launch Cargo Dragons on boosters with multiple non-NASA missions in their pasts and will soon launch DART – an asteroid impact spacecraft – on another Falcon booster that last launched Starlink satellites. Additionally, with Arabsat 6A and STP-2, SpaceX already demonstrated in 2019 that it can launch Falcon Heavy, recover its two side boosters, and relaunch those same boosters on a different Falcon Heavy mission less than two months later – and for the US military, no less.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk reiterates Tesla Optimus’ most sci-fi potential yet
Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.
Elon Musk recently reiterated one of the most ambitious forecasts for Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus, stating it could become the first real-world example of a Von Neumann machine. He also noted once more that Optimus would be Tesla’s biggest product.
Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.
Optimus as a von Neumann machine
In response to a post on X that pondered on sci-fi timelines becoming real, Musk wrote that “Optimus will be the first Von Neumann machine, capable of building civilization by itself on any viable planet.” In a separate post, Musk wrote that Optimus will be Tesla’s “biggest product ever,” a phrase he has used in the past to describe the humanoid robot’s importance to the electric vehicle maker.
A Von Neumann machine is a class of theoretical self-replicating systems originally proposed in the mid-20th century by the mathematician John von Neumann. In his concept, von Neumann described machines that could travel to other worlds, use local materials to create copies of themselves, and carry out large-scale tasks without outside intervention.
Elon Musk’s broader plans
Considering Musk’s comments, it appears that Optimus would eventually be capable of performing complex work autonomously in environments beyond Earth. If Optimus could achieve such a feat, it could very well unlock humanity’s capability to explore locations beyond Earth. The idea of space exploration becomes more than feasible.
Elon Musk has discussed space-based AI compute, large-scale robotic production, and the role of SpaceX’s Starship in transporting hardware and materials to other planets. While Musk did not detail how Optimus would fit with SpaceX’s exploration activities, his Von Neumann machine comments suggest he is looking at Tesla’s robotics as part of a potential interplanetary ecosystem.
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Tesla China January wholesale sales rise 9% year-on-year
Tesla reported January wholesale sales of 69,129 China-made vehicles, as per data released by the China Passenger Car Association.
Tesla China reported January wholesale sales of 69,129 Giga Shanghai-made vehicles, as per data released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). The figure includes both domestic sales and exports from Gigafactory Shanghai.
The total represented a 9.32% increase from January last year but a 28.86% decline from December’s 97,171 units.
China EV market trends
The CPCA estimated that China’s passenger new energy vehicle wholesale volume reached about 900,000 units in January, up 1% year-on-year but down 42% from December. Demand has been pressured by the start-of-year slow season, a 5% additional purchase tax cost, and uncertainty around the transition of vehicle trade-in subsidies, as noted in a report from CNEV Post.
Market leader BYD sold 210,051 NEVs in January, down 30.11% year-on-year and 50.04% month-on-month, as per data released on February 1. Tesla China’s year-over-year growth then is quite interesting, as the company’s vehicles seem to be selling very well despite headwinds in the market.
Tesla China’s strategies
To counter weaker seasonal demand, Tesla China launched a low-interest financing program on January 6, offering up to seven-year terms on select produced vehicles. The move marked the first time an automaker offered financing of that length in the Chinese market.
Several rivals, including Xiaomi, Li Auto, XPeng, and NIO, later introduced similar incentives. Tesla China then further increased promotions on January 26 by reinstating insurance subsidies for the Model 3 sedan. The CPCA is expected to release Tesla’s China retail sales and export breakdown later this month.
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Tesla’s Apple CarPlay ambitions are not dead, they’re still in the works
For what it’s worth, as a Tesla owner, I don’t particularly see the need for CarPlay, as I have found the in-car system that the company has developed to be superior. However, many people are in love with CarPlay simply because, when it’s in a car that is capable, it is really great.
Tesla’s Apple CarPlay ambitions appeared to be dead in the water after a large amount of speculation late last year that the company would add the user interface seemed to cool down after several weeks of reports.
However, it appears that CarPlay might make its way to Tesla vehicles after all, as a recent report seems to indicate that it is still being worked on by software teams for the company.
The real question is whether it is truly needed or if it is just a want by so many owners that Tesla is listening and deciding to proceed with its development.
Back in November, Bloomberg reported that Tesla was in the process of testing Apple CarPlay within its vehicles, which was a major development considering the company had resisted adopting UIs outside of its own for many years.
Nearly one-third of car buyers considered the lack of CarPlay as a deal-breaker when buying their cars, a study from McKinsey & Co. outlined. This could be a driving decision in Tesla’s inability to abandon the development of CarPlay in its vehicles, especially as it lost a major advantage that appealed to consumers last year: the $7,500 EV tax credit.
Tesla owners propose interesting theory about Apple CarPlay and EV tax credit
Although we saw little to no movement on it since the November speculation, Tesla is now reportedly in the process of still developing the user interface. Mark Gurman, a Bloomberg writer with a weekly newsletter, stated that CarPlay is “still in the works” at Tesla and that more concrete information will be available “soon” regarding its development.
While Tesla already has a very capable and widely accepted user interface, CarPlay would still be an advantage, considering many people have used it in their vehicles for years. Just like smartphones, many people get comfortable with an operating system or style and are resistant to using a new one. This could be a big reason for Tesla attempting to get it in their own cars.
Tesla gets updated “Apple CarPlay” hack that can work on new models
For what it’s worth, as a Tesla owner, I don’t particularly see the need for CarPlay, as I have found the in-car system that the company has developed to be superior. However, many people are in love with CarPlay simply because, when it’s in a car that is capable, it is really great.
It holds one distinct advantage over Tesla’s UI in my opinion, and that’s the ability to read and respond to text messages, which is something that is available within a Tesla, but is not as user-friendly.
With that being said, I would still give CarPlay a shot in my Tesla. I didn’t particularly enjoy it in my Bronco Sport, but that was because Ford’s software was a bit laggy with it. If it were as smooth as Tesla’s UI, which I think it would be, it could be a really great addition to the vehicle.
Elon Musk reiterates Tesla Optimus’ most sci-fi potential yet
Tesla China January wholesale sales rise 9% year-on-year
