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SpaceX recovers fairing intact for the first time, Starlink communicating back to Earth

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With the launch of PAZ and two of their own Starlink demo satellites, SpaceX has completed its fourth successful launch of 2018, and continued an aggressive series of reusability-focused flight-tests.

Amazingly, the company managed to successfully recover a fairing intact for the first time ever, an absolutely crucial step towards ramping the Falcon family’s launch cadence and reusability. According to CEO Elon Musk, SpaceX’s fairing recovery vessel Mr. Steven missed the fairing by a few hundred meters, meaning that the fairing gently landed in the Pacific Ocean, rather than Mr. Steven’s now-famous fairing recovery net. This is quite possibly the first time in aerospace history that an orbital rocket’s payload fairing has been recovered intact, and the fairing in question looks very much intact.

As mentioned by Musk, that massive piece of hardware had to survive reentry into Earth’s atmosphere at no less than Mach 8, considerably more than two times faster than the famous SR-71 Blackbird spy plane. While the fairing’s parafoil appears to have sunk after being quickly detached, careful observers will note three vertical bars at its three corners, almost certainly the points where that parafoil attaches to them and allows it to gently float down to the ocean surface.  While not nearly as consequential as SpaceX’s growing expertise with Falcon booster recovery and reuse, each fairing – made largely of carbon fiber composites – takes a huge amount of time and effort to complete, and cost upwards of $3 million each ($6m for both halves). In this sense, SpaceX has managed to recover a pallet of cash, as Musk humorously likened the effort fairing reuse to in 2017.

Given just how good the fairing’s condition appears to be, as well as the calm sea states, it’s very likely that SpaceX will try to pick up the landed fairing with a crane, although that would require a different vessel – Mr. Steven has no crane! Teslarati’s Pauline Acalin will undoubtedly be checking out the Port of San Pedro once Mr. Steven has returned to shore, in hopes of capturing the first-ever photos of a recovered orbital rocket fairing.

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Falcon 9 roars into the dark California sky with PAZ and Starlink. (Pauline Acalin)

Starlink hopes tempered despite apparent success

While only mentioned a few times during the webcast, the Falcon 9 that launched earlier today was also carrying additional co-passengers – two SpaceX demonstration satellites, in this case. Confirmed to have successfully deployed and begun communicating with SpaceX ground control, this is another huge accomplishment for SpaceX and marks their first-ever steps into dedicated satellite manufacturing and operation. Despite the significance of this event, SpaceX was keen to lower expectations for the satellite internet network, named Starlink. The following statement was provided during the webcast:

“Even if these satellites work as planned, we still have considerable technical work ahead of us to design and deploy a low Earth orbit satellite constellation. If successful, [this system] would provide people in low to moderate population densities around the world with affordable, high-speed internet access, including many that have never had internet access before.”

https://www.instagram.com/p/BfgTyTzgYVm/

For all intents and purposes, this appears to be a significant departure from previous statements given about Starlink by the rocket company. The explicit mention of “low and moderate” population densities being the only focus of service contrasts heavily with a general sense that Starlink was intended from the outset to provide universal internet around the globe to anyone who could afford the service. This certainly serves as a confirmation that there are major technological hurdles that will need to be overcome for Starlink to become the universal internet many have come to hope for from SpaceX – it would appear that it will be quite difficult to serve high-density populations with SpaceX’s current choice of technologies for their constellation.

Still, the demand is undeniably there. Even readers of Teslarati expressed an immediate desire to ditch their cable companies and ISPs, both in the US and abroad. If SpaceX can make it happen, they will have hordes of eager ISP-hating internet users desperate for any alternatives, and your author is proudly among them. The badly served aside, it sounds like SpaceX may be pivoting towards Starlink as a method of connecting the underserved – mainly those in rural or undeveloped areas. Even in the US, this is a major problem for those that do not live near large cities, and US ISPs are exceptionally anti-consumer in these situations – often times charging obscene costs for cable installation or outright refusing to provide coverage. Starlink could be a boon for those individuals in the US and elsewhere, especially where a simple lack of infrastructure is the cause. Much of Africa suffers from this, although mobile networks have become a backbone for a relatively unique pattern of mobile phone usage.

Here’s to hoping that SpaceX manages to once again rise to an exceptional technological challenge. As with all R&D efforts, the company’s satellite effort would be helped immensely with additional funds, and thankfully Falcon 9 Block 5 is very nearly ready to fly its first missions. This highly reusable iteration of the rocket could enable SpaceX to fly dozens of missions with a single Falcon 9 booster, and would thus enable unprecedented profit margins for a launch company, at least in the interim. Eventually, SpaceX is bound to bring down its prices for the customer, but the first need to recoup their reusability and Falcon Heavy investments, while also ensuring a sound business plan to support the development of their BFR and BFS vehicles that may one day enable the colonization of space. Starlink may be another beneficiary of those profits, and could itself one day act as a source of reliable funding for SpaceX’s interplanetary endeavors.

Teslarati   –   Instagram – Twitter

Tom Cross – Twitter

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Pauline Acalin – Twitter

Eric Ralph – Twitter

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk calls Earth’s data centers “peanuts” next to what SpaceX is planning in orbit

Elon Musk says SpaceX capex efficiency is underestimated as orbital data centers loom by 2028.

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Elon Musk is pushing back on one of the biggest worries hanging over SpaceX stock. In a reply on X on Sunday, Musk said the company’s capital expenditure efficiency is severely underestimated. He was responding to a Milk Road Stocks post citing analyst Kyle Reidhead, who estimates SpaceX will need to spend roughly $470 billion over the next five quarters.

Reidhead built that figure around the target SpaceX set on its third quarter earnings call: 13 gigawatts or more of compute by the end of 2027. In his breakdown, Nvidia captures 83 to 89 percent of the spending. SpaceX ended the quarter with 1.7 GW of nameplate compute and guided to $35 billion to $40 billion in fourth quarter capex, as Teslarati reported.

Musk did not attach a number to his claim, but the earnings call shows the argument. CFO Bret Johnsen said new compute currently pays for itself in under a year at today’s pricing, and Musk said that window could shrink to six months next year. Using that pace, Reidhead argues about $230 billion of the $470 billion could come from operating cash flow and about $60 billion from SpaceX’s roughly $90 billion cash pile, leaving around $180 billion to borrow. Musk confirmed last week that SpaceX had already closed a new $40 billion debt raise to buy GPUs.

The ground buildout is not the end goal. It is what is meant to pay for the move to orbit. Replying on Friday to charts built from Sequoia partner Shaun Maguire’s SpaceX model, Musk wrote that “Terrestrial compute will be peanuts compared to orbital compute,” adding that orbital compute deployed per month “probably exceeds terrestrial around the end of 2028 and then far exceeds it in 2029.”

Maguire’s model shows how steep that path is. It has capex climbing from $88 billion this year to $290 billion in 2027 and $369 billion in 2028, with SpaceX burning $77.8 billion in cash this year and $122.6 billion next year before turning $114.9 billion cash positive in 2028. Musk’s response to the model was, “I think we can do better.”

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The orbital half runs through Starmind. SpaceX plans to operate up to 1 million AI satellites flying in clusters of about 10, linked by roughly 10 terabits of bandwidth, with deployment of thousands of units starting as soon as late 2027 out of its Gigasat factory in Bastrop, Texas, according to SpaceX’s space safety page. Musk has said each Starmind spacecraft will carry more than 250 kW of solar power.

Getting there depends on launch volume. Maguire’s model assumes 250 Starship flights in 2028, up from two this year and 38 next year. The nearer test is financial: SpaceX guided to $33 billion to $37 billion in first quarter 2027 revenue, more than double the $14.58 billion it booked in Q3, and Musk reposted that guidance again on Sunday morning.

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SpaceX President to gift Trump Accounts her SpaceX stock

Gwynne Shotwell’s 2 million SpaceX shares are headed to children’s Trump Accounts starting this December.

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Concept rendering of SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell overlooks the company’s Hawthorne, California headquarters as an American flag flies over the campus at sunset.

SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said Friday that more than 2 million SpaceX shares belonging to her and her husband, Robert, will be distributed to children’s Trump Accounts in December, turning a pledge she made over the summer into an actual transfer. “Robert and I are thrilled that our gift of over 2 million shares of SpaceX stock will be distributed to children’s Trump accounts in December!” Shotwell wrote on X, adding that the shares are “transferring to escrow as we speak.”

The first round goes to children aged 11 to 17 who live in ZIP codes where the median family income is $57,000 or less, along with kids in ZIP codes with too few residents for the Census to report that figure. Shotwell said those families should receive a notice by Monday, Reuters reported.

A second gift is expected to be finalized in the next few weeks. That round will cover eligible children in military families serving overseas, children in foster care, and more kids in Texas counties near the Shotwells’ home where median family income is $90,000 or less. Elon Musk replied to the announcement with “Cool” and a heart emoji.

Shotwell first announced the donation on July 6, less than a month after SpaceX priced its record IPO at $135 per share on the Nasdaq. IPO filings showed Shotwell owned about 12.6 million SpaceX shares, Quartz reported at the time, which makes the gift roughly one sixth of her stake. At the roughly $146 per share used to value Musk’s own pledge earlier this month, 2 million shares are worth about $290 million.

How the stock would actually reach the accounts had been an open question since July. Treasury guidance acknowledged that stock donations could flow into Trump Accounts, but it did not explain the mechanics for a program whose contributions default into an S&P 500 index fund. Shotwell thanked the Treasury, the IRS, the Dell Foundation, Greater Horizons, Invest America and the law firms Morgan Lewis and Gibson Dunn for “working over the past few months to make this happen.”

The transfer also works as a dry run for a far larger gift. On October 19, Musk said he would give one of his SpaceX shares to every kid in America next year and called it “the first of many.” With roughly 72 million children in the country, that pledge is worth about $10.5 billion. President Donald Trump thanked Musk the same day and said the shares would go through Trump Accounts, though neither SpaceX nor the Treasury has published how or when that distribution will happen.

Shotwell’s recipients also fill a gap in the program itself. Trump Accounts launched on July 4, and the $1,000 Treasury deposit only goes to babies born between 2025 and 2028. Teenagers aged 11 to 17 receive no government seed money, so for many of the families getting a notice on Monday, SpaceX stock will be the first asset in the account. The accounts convert into retirement accounts when the child turns 18.

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Tesla Full Self-Driving becomes main pillar of new Referral Program

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla Full Self-Driving is now the centerpiece of the company’s newly revised Referral Program, which launched on October 29.

Instead of referring people to purchase vehicles and the referrer receiving $250 in Tesla Credit, the new program now incentivizes Full Self-Driving subscriptions.

If a Tesla owner is on an FSD trial and uses a referral code to subscribe to Full Self-Driving, the person whose Referral Link was used will receive one month of FSD (Supervised). Their code can be utilized 12 times per year, with January 1 marking the reset date.

Realistically, this means that if your Referral Code is used by 12 Tesla owners on an FSD trial, you will receive a full year of FSD for free.

The previous program made it pretty difficult to get referrals; buying a vehicle is obviously a much larger financial strain than subscribing to Full Self-Driving for a month.

Of course, the previous Referral Program also offered a tangible benefit: $250 in credits you could use on Service, Supercharging, or anything in the Tesla Shop. It truly could pay for someone’s travel for a year. It recently bought me a new backpack and a T-shirt.

However, this new program is much more attainable for those who do not have a massive online presence of a slew of friends in the Tesla community who will use the code and max out subscriptions for vehicle purchases.

The Full Self-Driving suite will now be the keystone of the Referral Program, which makes it more inclusive and more fun for everyone with an awesome benefit.

It also gives the impression that Tesla is truly focused on FSD subscriptions, something that saw a tremendous increase in volume in Q3, as 75 percent of deliveries for the quarter came with an FSD subscription attached.

Full Self-Driving data is so instrumental to the suite’s improvement that this kind of program benefits Tesla as much as it does the consumer.

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