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SpaceX Falcon 9 crushes next-gen ULA Vulcan rocket on cost in first competition
The United Launch Alliance’s (ULA) next-generation Vulcan Centaur rocket appears to have made it through what could be described as its first real competition with SpaceX and its Falcon 9 workhorse.
The US Space Force (or Air Force) awarded both rockets two launch contracts each on March 9th, marking the second award under “Phase 2” of a new National Security Space Launch (NSSL; formerly Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle or EELV) agreement. The culmination of a multi-year competition, NSSL Phase 2 calcified in late 2020 when the US military ultimately chose ULA and SpaceX as its primary launch providers for the better part of the next decade.
The final Phase 2 agreement followed Phase 1, in which the USAF committed up to $2.3 billion to assist Blue Origin, Northrop Grumman, and ULA in their efforts to develop future military launch capabilities. SpaceX submitted a proposal but didn’t win funds. Even though the ULA-SpaceX dichotomy was already a more or less fixed outcome before the competition even began, the US military still managed to dole out almost $800 million to Blue Origin and Northrop Grumman before announcing that neither provider had been selected for Phase 2.
Notably, as part of Phase 1, ULA is on track to receive nearly $1 billion in USSF/USAF aid to develop its next-generation Vulcan Centaur rocket and ensure that it meets all of the military’s exacting, unique requirements. SpaceX, on the other hand, received a sum total of $0 from that opaque slush fund to meet the exact same requirements as ULA.
For Phase 2, the US military arbitrarily split the roughly two-dozen launch contracts up for grabs into a 60/40 pile. Even more bizarrely, the USAF did everything in its power to prevent two of the three rockets it had just spent more than $1.7 billion to help develop from receiving any of those two or three-dozen available launch contracts – all but literally setting $800M of that investment on fire. Short of comical levels of blind ineptitude, verging on criminal negligence, the only possible explanation for the US military’s behavior with NSSL Phase 1 and Phase 2 is a no-holds-barred effort to guarantee that ULA and its Vulcan Centaur rocket would have zero real competition.
The arbitrary 60:40 split of the final Phase 2 contract ‘lot’ further supports that argument. A government agency objectively interested in securing the best possible value and redundancy for its taxpayer-provided money would logically exploit a $1.7B investment as much as possible instead of throwing two-thirds of its ultimate value in the trash. On its own, a block-buy scenario – even with a leading goal of selecting two providers – is fundamentally inferior to an open competition for each of the dozens of launch contracts at hand.
Further, selecting the block-buy option and failing to split those contracts 50:50 makes it even clearer that the USAF’s only steadfast NSSL Phase 2 goal was to guarantee ULA enough Vulcan launch contracts for the company to be comfortable and (most likely) not lose money on a rocket that has yet to demonstrate an ability to compete on the commercial launch market.
Amazingly, despite multiple handicaps in the form of a 60:40 contract split and what amounts to a $1B subsidy that explicitly disadvantages its only competitor, ULA’s Vulcan rocket still appears to be ~40% more expensive than SpaceX’s Falcon 9. In the latest round of NSSL Phase 2 contracts, seemingly the first in which ULA’s Vulcan Centaur rocket was selected, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 received two East Coast launch contracts worth slightly less than $160M, averaging out to less than $80M each.
Outfitted with four of a possible zero, two, four, or six strap-on solid rocket boosters (SRBs), Vulcan Centaur received two launch contracts for $224M – an average of $112M each. Assuming ULA wins exactly 60% (~15) of the Phase 2 launch contracts up for grabs and receives no more than $1 billion in USAF development funding through NSSL Phase 1, some $67 million will have to be added to the cost of each announced Vulcan launch contract to get a truly accurate picture. In the case of the rocket’s first two contracts, the real average cost of each Vulcan Centaur launch could thus be closer to $179M ($112M+$67M).
According to ULA CEO Tory Bruno, both Vulcan missions are to “high-energy orbits,” whereas a USAF official told Spaceflight Now that SpaceX’s two Falcon 9 contracts were to “lower-energy orbits.” In Vulcan’s defense, if Bruno’s “high-energy orbit” comment means a circular geostationary orbit (GEO) or a very heavy payload to an elliptical geostationary transfer orbit (GTO), it’s possible that SpaceX would have had to use Falcon Heavy to complete the same contracts. Against Falcon Heavy’s established institutional pricing and excluding ULA’s $1B Phase 1 subsidy, Vulcan Centaur is reasonably competitive.
Ultimately, even with several significant cards stacked against it, SpaceX appears likely to continue crushing entrenched competitors like ULA and Arianespace on cost while still offering performance and results equivalent to or better than even than their “next-generation” rockets.
News
Tesla Optimus steals the show during TRON: ARES premiere
Now that kung-fu Optimus demonstration makes sense.

Just a few days ago, Elon Musk shared a video of Tesla Optimus demonstrating some kung fu moves with a human partner. The video was impressive, though some were confused about why the Optimus team was busying itself with what appeared to be a cool but frivolous demonstration.
With the premiere of TRON: ARES, we now know that Optimus’ kung fu demonstration was part of the robot’s preparations for the red carpet.
Optimus “starts a fight”
As noted by X Business on its official account on the social media platform, the TRON: ARES red carpet world premiere was a showcase of today’s AI-powered technologies. With this in mind, xAI, X, Walt Disney, and Tesla collaborated to provide attendees with an immersive experience on real-world AI. This included Optimus engaging with attendees, and even distributing theater concessions.
But one black and red painted Optimus unit definitely stole the show. The humanoid robot, in front of several attendees, attempted to “pick a fight” with Jared Leto, who starts in the movie alongside Greta Lee, Evan Peters, and Jeff Bridges. As could be seen in the video of Optimus, the robot’s moves in the red carpet were similar to the kung fu demonstration that Elon Musk showcased last week.
TRON: ARES
Monique Pintarelli, Head of Americas at X, shared some insights about the event, which ended up being a collaboration of sorts between several Elon Musk-led companies.
“This partnership with Disney lets fans and stars experience the world of TRON like never before – turning the red carpet event into a collision between the real world and AI. By leveraging X’s unparalleled real-time engagement and xAI’s cutting-edge technology alongside Tesla’s Optimus robots, we’re creating shared, immersive experiences that redefine storytelling,” the X executive noted.
TRON: ARES releases on U.S. theaters on October 10, 2025.
News
Tesla FSD (Supervised) V14.1 with Robotaxi-style dropoffs is here
This represents FSD’s most significant update in nearly a year.

Tesla has started the rollout of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) V14.1, the advanced driver-assist system’s most significant update in nearly a year. The release introduces vision-based navigation for real-time detour handling and a new “Arrival Options” feature that simulates Robotaxi-style drop-offs.
New Tesla Vision-based features
With Version 14.1, Tesla has integrated navigation and routing directly into its vision-based neural network, enabling the system to respond to scenarios such as blocked roads or closures in real time. The update also enhances emergency vehicle detection, allowing the car to pull over or yield when police, fire, or ambulances are nearby.
Other improvements include refined responses to debris, school buses, and lane cut-ins, as well as smoother handling of unprotected turns and gated entries. The update also adds a Robotaxi-style automatic camera-cleaning system. Tesla also promises improved fault recovery for greater reliability during degraded system operation.
New Speed Profiles and other features
Drivers can now personalize FSD’s behavior more precisely through new Speed Profiles. A new “Sloth” mode has joined the lineup, offering a more conservative lane and speed selection than “Chill.” Preferences for parking and arrival positions are saved per destination, while the system’s reasoning model automatically recommends several options for each route.
Users can start FSD from a single tap, adjust settings from the central visualization, and expect fewer driver “nags,” according to Elon Musk. The CEO noted that Version 14 features a 10x higher parameter count and said it “feels sentient” compared to earlier builds. While it’s still a supervised system, unlike the Austin Robotaxi pilot, FSD 14.1 seems to be a key milestone toward the refinement of Tesla’s autonomous driving efforts.
FSD (Supervised) V14.1 release notes
Following are the release notes for FSD (Supervised) V14.1:
FSD(Supervised) v14.1 includes:
• Added Arrival Options for you to select where FSD should park: in a Parking Lot, on the Street, in a Driveway, in a Parking Garage, or at the Curbside.
• Added handling to pull over or yield for emergency vehicles (e.g. police cars, fire trucks, ambulances).
• Added navigation and routing into the vision-based neural network for real-time handling of blocked roads and detours.
• Added additional Speed Profile to further customize driving style preference.
• Improved handling for static and dynamic gates.
• Improved offsetting for road debris (e.g. tires, tree branches, boxes).
• Improve handling of several scenarios including: unprotected turns, lane changes, vehicle cut-ins, and school buses.
Improved FSD’s ability to manage system faults and recover smoothly from degraded operation for enhanced reliability.
• Added automatic narrow field washing to provide rapid and efficient front camera self-cleaning, and optimize aerodynamics wash at higher vehicle speed.
• Added alerting for residue build-up on interior windshield that may impact front camera visibility. If affected, visit Service for cleaning!
Upcoming Improvements:
• Overall smoothness and sentience
• Parking spot selection and parking quality
• You can now select an arrival option such as Parking Lot, Street, Driveway, Parking Garage and Curbside for Robotaxi-style drop offs.
• Your preferences for arrival options and preferred parking positions are persisted for each destination.
• Our reasoning model will assess the suitable options for your destination and pick an intuitive default.
Speed Profiles:
FSD (Supervised) will now determine the appropriate speed based on a mix of driver profile, speed limit, and surrounding traffic:
• Introduced new Speed Profile SLOTH, which comes with lower speeds & more conservative lane selection than CHILL.
• Driver profile now has a stronger impact on behavior. The more assertive the profile, the higher the max speed.
• Right scroll-wheel up/down now adjusts Speed Profile setting rather than your precise max speed offset selection in mph/kph.
UI Improvements:
• Start Self-Driving with a tap of the touchscreen from Park, or any time during your drive.
• Adjust settings like the Speed Profile and Arrival Options directly from the Autopilot visualization on the center display.
News
Tesla plant manager tips off affordable model production

A plant manager at a Tesla factory just tipped off the fact that the company will begin production of an affordable model in the coming weeks, all but confirming that a new car will be unveiled tomorrow.
Tesla has been teasing some kind of product unveiling for October 7 on its social media accounts. It has now dropped two separate indications that a new product is coming on its X account.
Fans have been anticipating two things: either the company’s planned affordable model, which has been codenamed “E41,” or the Roadster, a long-awaited vehicle that Tesla has kept under wraps for much longer than it would likely care to admit.
Tesla all but confirms that affordable Model Y is coming Tuesday
André Thierig, Tesla’s plant manager at the German production plant Gigafactory Berlin, tipped off what is likely coming tomorrow at the product unveiling as he revealed during an internal event today that a light version of the Model Y will begin series production and deliveries “in a few weeks.”
Thierig’s revealing of plans was reported by Handelsblatt, a German media outlet.
The description of a “light version of the Model Y” aligns with what CEO Elon Musk said earlier this year, as well as what we have seen on public roads, both covered and uncovered.
Last week, we finally saw an uncovered version of what the affordable model likely is, as it was cruising around near Gigafactory Texas, just outside of Austin.
Tesla coding shows affordable model details, including potential price
Musk said earlier this year, candidly during an Earnings Call, that the affordable model Tesla planned to release was a Model Y.
“It’s just a Model Y. Let the cat out of the bag there,” Musk said.
The images of what we assumed to be the affordable model lined up with Musk’s candid statement:
🚨 It looks like the new affordable Tesla Model Y was spotted near Giga Texas
Model Y body with the Model 3 fascia, no glass roof, and looks as if there is a front bumper camera!
Should be coming soon! https://t.co/UAXQMHjM23 pic.twitter.com/9lC5te9GnW
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 3, 2025
Tesla is expected to unveil its affordable model tomorrow during the planned event, which has been teased twice. Pricing and other details are still pending, but the company is expected to reveal this information tomorrow.
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