News
SpaceX hot-fires Falcon 9 with Crew Dragon aboard prior to first orbital launch
SpaceX has completed a hot-fire test of Falcon 9 B1051 at Pad 39A, hopefully demonstrating that the company’s first human-rated rocket is ready to support the orbital launch debut of its Crew Dragon spacecraft.
Given NASA’s uniquely conservative tendencies, it’s hard to extrapolate from SpaceX’s well-worn launch operations. Nevertheless, if the data from this static fire show a healthy spacecraft and rocket, SpaceX will likely be well on their way to the first (uncrewed) orbital launch of Crew Dragon, currently expected no earlier than (NET) the second half of February.
TEST FIRE of #SpaceX Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon at 1600 ET / 2100 UTC! Appeared to go well. pic.twitter.com/a66CnBv7fU
— Emre Kelly (@EmreKelly) January 24, 2019
In an intriguing sign that Crew Dragon was fully fueled and ready to abort at any second, SpaceX Dragon recovery vessel GO Searcher was stationed in the Atlantic Ocean just a few miles East of Falcon 9’s static fire attempt at Pad 39A. In other words, if Falcon 9 were to have experienced a potentially catastrophic anomaly during propellant loading or Merlin 1D ignition, Crew Dragon would have likely ignited its 8 Super Draco abort thrusters to rapidly accelerate away from the rocket, theoretically saving itself (and any astronauts aboard). GO Searcher would have then quickly recovered the forlorn spacecraft after it deployed its parachutes and landed in the ocean, essentially a replay of the Pad Abort test SpaceX engineers and technicians completed in 2015.
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Designed with the sole intention of ensuring that Crew Dragon is capable of safely aborting an anomalous launch and carrying astronauts to safety at almost any point between ignition and orbit, that same launch abort system (LAS) also offers the option for Crew Dragon to escape a potentially damaging situation even without a crew aboard. In the latter case, Crew Dragon’s hardware would be preserved for potential refurbishment and reuse, likely saving SpaceX and NASA tens of millions of dollars (if not $100M+) and cutting months off of the inevitable delays that would follow. Crew Dragon’s integrated LAS – meaning that the spacecraft brings it wherever it goes – is completely unique in the history of crewed spaceflight and ultimately offers unbeatable protection for any astronauts or passengers entrusted to it.
Thanks in large part to undoubtedly disruptive NASA demands that may well be far more conservative than necessary, SpaceX extensively re-engineered Falcon 9 for ease of manufacturing and extreme reliability, both of which go hand in hand. Among dozens of minor to major changes, M1D and MVac engines were modified to mitigate minor problems with turbopump blades fracturing, overall avionics redundancy was upgraded, and Falcon’s ultra-high-pressure helium storage tanks (COPVs) were drastically redesigned.
These upgrades were ultimately integrated into the iteration known as Block 5. According to SpaceX’s updated Falcon 9 and Heavy payload user guide, “[aside from the payload interface], all first- and second-stage vehicle systems are the same [for Dragon and satellite launches], indicating that the same exact rocket is produced for any given single-stick Falcon 9 launch. This means that all SpaceX customers, US government or not, benefit directly from the reliability demanded by NASA and the US military for crewed and uncrewed launches. It also means that SpaceX’s production system remains exceptionally simple, as just a single upper stage and booster variation is needed for the vast majority of the company’s launches. Falcon Heavy requires a unique center core booster and nosecones but is otherwise unchanged from Falcon 9.
According to Russian media, SpaceX is now targeting Crew Dragon’s launch debut NET February 16th. Liftoff will occur around 8am EDT (13:00 UTC) if that timeframe holds.
The Russians are claiming NET 16th, but again – don’t go booking any flights. That may not stick.
PS This is not unexpected. Lots of first time (unique mission) reviews, ISS in play, etc. etc. It’ll be mostly paperwork related.
— Chris B – NSF (@NASASpaceflight) January 21, 2019
News
Tesla’s new Holiday perk is timed perfectly to make FSD a household name
Tesla AI4 owners get FSD (Supervised) through Christmas, New Year’s Eve and well into the post-holiday travel season.
Tesla quietly rolled out a free Full Self-Driving (Supervised) trial for roughly 1.5 million HW4 owners in North America who never bought the package, and the timing could very well be genius.
As it turns out, the trial doesn’t end after 30 days. Instead, it expires January 8, 2026, meaning owners get FSD (Supervised) through Christmas, New Year’s Eve and well into the post-holiday travel season. This extended window positions the feature for maximum word-of-mouth exposure.
A clever holiday gift
Tesla watcher Sawyer Merritt first spotted the detail after multiple owners shared screenshots showing the trial expiring on January 8. He confirmed with affected users that none had active FSD subscriptions before the rollout. He also observed that Tesla never called the promotion a “30-day trial,” as the in-car message simply reads “You’re Getting FSD (Supervised) For the Holidays,” which technically runs until after the new year.
The roughly 40-day period covers peak family travel and gatherings, giving owners ample opportunity to showcase the latest FSD V14’s capabilities on highway trips, crowded parking lots and neighborhood drives. With relatives riding along, hands-off highway driving and automatic lane changes could become instant conversation starters.
Rave reviews for FSD V14 highlight demo potential
FSD has been receiving positive reviews from users as of late. Following the release of FSD v14.2.1, numerous owners praised the update for its smoothness and reliability. Tesla owner @LactoseLunatic called it a “huge leap forward from version 14.1.4,” praising extreme smoothness, snappy lane changes and assertive yet safe behavior that allows relaxed monitoring.
-->Another Tesla owner, @DevinOlsenn, drove 600 km without disengagements, noting his wife now defaults to FSD for daily use due to its refined feel. Sawyer Merritt also tested FSD V14.2.1 in snow on unplowed New Hampshire roads, and the system stayed extra cautious without hesitation. Longtime FSD tester Chuck Cook highlighted improved sign recognition in school zones, showing better dynamic awareness. These reports of fewer interventions and a more “sentient” drive could turn family passengers into advocates, fueling subscriptions come January.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk predicts AI and robotics could make work “optional” within 20 years
Speaking on entrepreneur Nikhil Kamath’s podcast, Musk predicted that machines will soon handle most forms of labor, leaving humans to work only if they choose to.
Elon Musk stated that rapid advances in artificial intelligence and robotics could make traditional work unnecessary within two decades.
Speaking on entrepreneur Nikhil Kamath’s podcast, Musk predicted that machines will soon handle most forms of labor, leaving humans to work only if they choose to.
Work as a “hobby”
During the discussion, Musk said the accelerating capability of AI systems and general-purpose robots will eventually cover all essential tasks, making human labor a choice rather than an economic requirement. “In less than 20 years, working will be optional. Working at all will be optional. Like a hobby,” Musk said.
When Kamath asked whether this future is driven by massive productivity growth, Musk agreed, noting that people will still be free to work if they enjoy the routine or the challenge. He compared future employment to home gardening, as it is something people can still do for personal satisfaction even if buying food from a store is far easier.
“Optional” work in the future
Elon Musk acknowledged the boldness of his claim and joked that people might look back in 20 years and say he was wrong. That being said, the CEO noted that such a scenario could even happen sooner than his prediction, at least if one were to consider the pace of the advancements in AI and robotics.
-->“Obviously people can play this back in 20 years and say, ‘Look, Elon made this ridiculous prediction and it’s not true,’ but I think it will turn out to be true, that in less than 20 years, maybe even as little as ten or 15 years, the advancements in AI and robotics will bring us to the point where working is optional,” Musk said.
Elon Musk’s comments echo his previous sentiments at Tesla’s 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting, where he noted that Optimus could ultimately eliminate poverty. He also noted that robots like Optimus could eventually provide people worldwide with the best medical care.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk reiterates why Tesla will never make an electric motorcycle
Tesla CEO Elon Musk preemptively shut down speculations about a Tesla road bike once more.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk preemptively shut down speculations about a Tesla road bike once more, highlighting that the electric vehicle maker has no plans to enter the electric motorcycle market.
Musk posted his clarification in a post on X.
Musk’s reply to a fun AI video
X user @Moandbhr posted an AI video featuring the Tesla CEO on the social media platform, captioning it with “Mr. Elon Musk Just Revealed the Game-Changing Tesla Motorcycle.” The short clip depicted Musk approaching a sleek, single-wheeled vehicle, stepping onto it, and gliding off into the distance amid cheers. The fun video received a lot of traction on X, gaining 3.1 million views as of writing.
Musk replied to the post, stating that a Tesla motorcycle is not going to happen. “Never happening, as we can’t make motorcycles safe. For Community Notes, my near death experience was on a road bike. Dirt bikes are safe if you ride carefully, as you can’t be smashed by a truck,” Musk wrote in his reply.
Musk’s Past Comments on Two-Wheelers
Musk also detailed his reservations about motorcycles in a December 2019 X post while responding to questions about Tesla’s potential ATV. At the time, he responded positively to an electric ATV, though he also opposed the idea of a Tesla road-going motorcycle. Musk did state that electric dirt bikes might be cool, since they do not operate in areas where large vehicles like Class 8 trucks are present.
-->“Electric dirt bikes would be cool too. We won’t do road bikes, as too dangerous. I was hit by a truck & almost died on one when I was 17,” Musk wrote in his post.
Considering Musk’s comments about dirt bikes, however, perhaps Tesla would eventually offer a road bike as a recreational vehicle. Such a two-wheeler would be a good fit for the Cybertruck, as well as future products like the Robovan, which could be converted into an RV.
Tesla’s new Holiday perk is timed perfectly to make FSD a household name
Elon Musk predicts AI and robotics could make work “optional” within 20 years
