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Hawthorne, we have a problem: SpaceX has too many boosters
Over the course of two years of concerted effort, SpaceX has matured its program of reusable rocketry into a truly staggering success. Over the 24 months since SpaceX first successful recovery of a Falcon 9 booster, there have been stumbles as recovery improved, but overall the company has accomplished 20 near-flawless landings of boosters over that period. Perhaps more impressively, following a handful of failed recovery attempts in 2016, SpaceX has successfully recovered 15 boosters without incident, with the vast majority of those attempts occurring in 2017.
2017 has ultimately been the best year yet for the launch company, marked by what will likely be 18 successful missions (after Iridium-4) for Falcon 9, five commercial reuses of flight-proven boosters, the activation of three essentially new launch facilities, and numerous additional accomplishments behind the scenes as the inaugural launches of Falcon Heavy and Crew Dragon rapidly approach. The success of reusability is arguably the sticking point here, and that success has meant that SpaceX rapidly accumulated a huge stock of recovered Falcon 9s, often to the extent that Elon Musk sometimes joked about running out of space for boosters.
Falcon 9 1035 conducts its second landing after successfully launching CRS-13 on December 15. (NASA)
While it may not be immediately clear if SpaceX is legitimately running out of space with which to store its fleet of boosters, reports of first stages being mothballed or even scrapped suggest that space may indeed be at a premium, or at least indicate that SpaceX is growing increasingly pragmatic as its reuse expertise expands.
This is to say that while there may be room to store a few additional boosters, the reality is that older Block 3 Falcon 9s were simply not designed with an expectation that they would affordably survive multiple reuses. As such, it should come as little surprise that SpaceX is choosing to expend at least a couple of upcoming launches featuring reused boosters. As of December 19, public information indicates that the West Coast launch of Iridium-4 – scheduled for Dec. 22 – will not attempt first stage recovery. While somewhat sad, the decision is entirely rational, and it appears all but certain that Iridium-4 will at a minimum feature an attempt at fairing recovery aboard the highly-modified recovery vessel Mr. Steven.
Instagram is an invaluable asset for core tracking, with a number of SpaceX-aware individuals reliably tagging their Falcon 9 finds. 1036, the Block 3 booster that launched Iridium-2 and will soon refly with Iridium-4 is pictured above. (Instagram/Luka Hargett)
Public Falcon 9 tracking efforts on forums like Reddit and NASASpaceflight indicate that Block 3 boosters include 1029-1038, all of which debuted with their first launches in 2017, beginning with Iridium-1 in January. Of those ten distinct boosters, only two currently lack any future missions, 1032 and 1038; SpaceX has essentially worked the Block 3 fleet to its end-of-life, and that end will be efficiently sped up by simply expending those final reused boosters if or when they are reflown, Iridium-4 included.
For now, we only use those on super hot reentry missions. Will go to all Ti with Falcon 9 V5, which is a few months away.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 17, 2017
Expending those older flight-proven boosters will allow SpaceX to both figuratively and literally replace Falcon 9’s less capable predecessors with Block 4s and eventually Block 5s, both of which are at least marginally more reusable than their predecessors. As reported by Musk himself a few days ago, Falcon 9 Block 5 is expected within a few months. Block 5 has seen considerable modifications made to Falcon 9, and all of those changes are intended to improve ease of reuse: SpaceX’s official goal for the upgrade is to enabled Falcon 9 first stages to be reflown as many as 10 times with little to no refurbishment and a lifespan of 100 flights with significant periodic refurbishment. As a result, it is possible that 2018 might feature a similar period of reused Block 4 launches sans any attempted recoveries.
In the meantime, we can wish the fairing recovery teams the best of luck and mourn several of the pioneers of reusable rocketry. Here’s to hoping that we are treated to a live view of each booster’s demise in homage to their achievements.
Elon Musk
ARK’s SpaceX IPO Guide makes a compelling case on why $1.75T may not be the ceiling
ARK Invest breaks down six reasons SpaceX’s $1.75 trillion IPO valuation may be justified.
ARK Invest, which holds SpaceX as its largest Venture Fund position at 17% of net assets, has published a detailed investor guide to why a SpaceX IPO may be grounded in a $1.75 trillion target valuation.
The financial case starts with Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite internet constellation, which has surpassed 10 million active subscribers globally as of early 2026, with 2026 revenue projected to exceed $20 billion. ARK’s research puts the total satellite connectivity market opportunity at roughly $160 billion annually at scale, and Starlink is adding customers faster than any telecom network in history. That growth alone would justify a substantial valuation.
Additionally, ARK notes that SpaceX has reduced the cost per kilogram to orbit from roughly $15,600 in 2008 to under $1,000 today through reusable Falcon 9 hardware. A fully operational Starship targeting sub-$100 per kilogram would represent a significant cost decline and open markets that do not currently exist. SpaceX executed a staggering 165 missions in 2025 and now accounts for approximately 85% of all global orbital launches. That infrastructure position took decades to build and would be nearly impossible to replicate at comparable cost.
SpaceX officially acquires xAI, merging rockets with AI expertise
The February 2026 merger with xAI added a layer to the valuation that straightforward financial models struggle to capture. ARK argues that at sub-$100 launch costs, orbital data centers could deliver compute roughly 25% cheaper than ground-based alternatives, without power grid delays, permitting friction, or land constraints. Musk has stated a goal of deploying 100 gigawatts of AI computing capacity per year from orbit.
The $1.75 trillion figure itself is not a conventional earnings multiple. At roughly 95x trailing revenue, it prices in Starlink’s adoption curve, Starship’s cost trajectory, and the orbital compute thesis together. The public S-1 prospectus, due at least 15 days before the June roadshow, will give investors their first complete look at the financials to test those assumptions. ARK’s position is that the track record earns the benefit of the doubt. Fully reusable rockets were considered unrealistic for years. Starlink was considered financially unviable. Both happened on timelines that surprised skeptics.
Elon Musk
Ford CEO Farley says Tesla is not who to look at for EV expertise
Interestingly, Farley has been one of the most hellbent CEOs in terms of a legacy automaker standpoint to push the EV effort. It did not go according to plan, as Ford took a $19.5 billion charge and retreated from its EV push in late 2025.
Ford CEO Jim Farley said in a recent podcast interview that Tesla is not who Americans should look at to beat Chinese carmakers.
The comments have sparked quite a bit of outrage from Tesla fans on X, the social media platform owned by Elon Musk.
Farley said that Chinese automakers are better examples of how to beat competitors. He said (via the Rapid Response Podcast):
“If you’re an American and you want us to beat the Chinese in the car business, you’re all going to want to pay attention, not necessarily to Tesla. Nothing against Tesla—they’ve been doing great—but they really don’t have an updated vehicle. The best in the business for us, cost-wise and competition-wise, supply chain, manufacturing expertise, and the I.P. in the vehicle, was really BYD. In this next cycle of EV customers in the U.S., they want pickups and utilities and all these different body styles. But they want them at $30,000, not $50,000. Like the first inning, they want them affordably.”
Despite Farley’s synopsis, it is worth mentioning that Tesla had the best-selling passenger vehicle in the world last year, and in China in March, as the Model Y continued its global dominance over other vehicles.
Musk responded to Farley’s comments by stating:
“This is before Supervised FSD is approved in China. Limiting factor is production output in Shanghai.”
This is before supervised FSD is approved in China. Limiting factor is production output in Shanghai.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 19, 2026
Interestingly, Farley has been one of the most hellbent CEOs in terms of a legacy automaker standpoint to push the EV effort. It did not go according to plan, as Ford took a $19.5 billion charge and retreated from its EV push in late 2025.
Ford cancels all-electric F-150 Lightning, announces $19.5 billion in charges
Instead, Ford is “doubling down on its affordable” EVs and said it would pivot from its previous plans.
Reaction from Tesla fans was pretty much how you would expect. Many said they have lost a lot of respect for Farley after his comments; others believe he is the last CEO anyone should be taking advice on EVs from.
Nevertheless, Farley’s plans are bold and brash; many consider Tesla the most ideal company to replicate EV efforts from. It will be interesting to see if Ford can rebound from this big adjustment, and hopefully, Farley’s plans to replicate efforts from BYD work out the way he hopes.
Elon Musk
SpaceX wins its first MARS contract but it comes with a catch
NASA awarded SpaceX a $175 million Mars rover contract while the White House proposes cutting the mission.
NASA just signed a $175.7 million contract with SpaceX to launch a Mars rover that the White House is simultaneously trying to defund. The contract, awarded on April 16, 2026, tasks SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy with launching the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Rosalind Franklin rover from Kennedy Space Center in Florida, no earlier than late 2028. It would mark the first time SpaceX has ever sent a payload to Mars.
Under NASA’s Rosalind Franklin Support and Augmentation project, known as ROSA, the agency is providing braking engines for the rover’s descent stage, radioisotope heater units that use decaying plutonium to keep the rover warm on the Martian surface, additional electronics, and a mass spectrometer instrument, as noted by SpaceNews.
Those nuclear heating units are the reason an American rocket was required at all. U.S. export controls on radioisotope technology mean any payload carrying them must launch on a domestic vehicle, which narrowed the field to SpaceX and United Launch Alliance. Falcon Heavy’s pricing made it the practical choice.
SpaceX is quietly becoming the U.S. Military’s only reliable rocket
Falcon Heavy debuted in February 2018 and has 11 launches to its record. The rocket has not flown since October 2024, when it sent NASA’s Europa Clipper toward Jupiter. The three-core design, built from modified Falcon 9 first stages, gives it the lift capacity needed for deep space planetary missions that a single Falcon 9 cannot reach.
The Rosalind Franklin rover has been sitting in storage in Europe for years. It was originally due to launch in 2022 as a joint mission with Russia, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ended that partnership, leaving the rover built but stranded without a launch vehicle or landing hardware. NASA stepped back in through a 2024 agreement with ESA to rescue the mission. The rover is designed to drill up to two meters below the Martian surface in search of evidence of past life, a science objective no previous mission has attempted at that depth.
The contradiction at the center of this story is hard to ignore. The White House’s fiscal year 2027 budget proposal included no funding for ROSA and did not mention the mission at all in the detailed congressional justification document released April 3.
Musk has long argued that reaching Mars is not optional. “We don’t want to be one of those single planet species, we want to be a multi-planet species.” Whether this particular mission survives Washington’s budget fight, the Falcon Heavy contract means SpaceX is now formally on record as the rocket that could get humanity’s next Mars science mission off the ground.
The timing of this contract carries extra weight given that SpaceX filed confidentially with the SEC in early April and is targeting an IPO roadshow in the week of June 8. It would be the largest public offering in history.
ARK’s SpaceX IPO Guide makes a compelling case on why $1.75T may not be the ceiling
Ford CEO Farley says Tesla is not who to look at for EV expertise
