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Hawthorne, we have a problem: SpaceX has too many boosters
Over the course of two years of concerted effort, SpaceX has matured its program of reusable rocketry into a truly staggering success. Over the 24 months since SpaceX first successful recovery of a Falcon 9 booster, there have been stumbles as recovery improved, but overall the company has accomplished 20 near-flawless landings of boosters over that period. Perhaps more impressively, following a handful of failed recovery attempts in 2016, SpaceX has successfully recovered 15 boosters without incident, with the vast majority of those attempts occurring in 2017.
2017 has ultimately been the best year yet for the launch company, marked by what will likely be 18 successful missions (after Iridium-4) for Falcon 9, five commercial reuses of flight-proven boosters, the activation of three essentially new launch facilities, and numerous additional accomplishments behind the scenes as the inaugural launches of Falcon Heavy and Crew Dragon rapidly approach. The success of reusability is arguably the sticking point here, and that success has meant that SpaceX rapidly accumulated a huge stock of recovered Falcon 9s, often to the extent that Elon Musk sometimes joked about running out of space for boosters.
Falcon 9 1035 conducts its second landing after successfully launching CRS-13 on December 15. (NASA)
While it may not be immediately clear if SpaceX is legitimately running out of space with which to store its fleet of boosters, reports of first stages being mothballed or even scrapped suggest that space may indeed be at a premium, or at least indicate that SpaceX is growing increasingly pragmatic as its reuse expertise expands.
This is to say that while there may be room to store a few additional boosters, the reality is that older Block 3 Falcon 9s were simply not designed with an expectation that they would affordably survive multiple reuses. As such, it should come as little surprise that SpaceX is choosing to expend at least a couple of upcoming launches featuring reused boosters. As of December 19, public information indicates that the West Coast launch of Iridium-4 – scheduled for Dec. 22 – will not attempt first stage recovery. While somewhat sad, the decision is entirely rational, and it appears all but certain that Iridium-4 will at a minimum feature an attempt at fairing recovery aboard the highly-modified recovery vessel Mr. Steven.
Instagram is an invaluable asset for core tracking, with a number of SpaceX-aware individuals reliably tagging their Falcon 9 finds. 1036, the Block 3 booster that launched Iridium-2 and will soon refly with Iridium-4 is pictured above. (Instagram/Luka Hargett)
Public Falcon 9 tracking efforts on forums like Reddit and NASASpaceflight indicate that Block 3 boosters include 1029-1038, all of which debuted with their first launches in 2017, beginning with Iridium-1 in January. Of those ten distinct boosters, only two currently lack any future missions, 1032 and 1038; SpaceX has essentially worked the Block 3 fleet to its end-of-life, and that end will be efficiently sped up by simply expending those final reused boosters if or when they are reflown, Iridium-4 included.
For now, we only use those on super hot reentry missions. Will go to all Ti with Falcon 9 V5, which is a few months away.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 17, 2017
Expending those older flight-proven boosters will allow SpaceX to both figuratively and literally replace Falcon 9’s less capable predecessors with Block 4s and eventually Block 5s, both of which are at least marginally more reusable than their predecessors. As reported by Musk himself a few days ago, Falcon 9 Block 5 is expected within a few months. Block 5 has seen considerable modifications made to Falcon 9, and all of those changes are intended to improve ease of reuse: SpaceX’s official goal for the upgrade is to enabled Falcon 9 first stages to be reflown as many as 10 times with little to no refurbishment and a lifespan of 100 flights with significant periodic refurbishment. As a result, it is possible that 2018 might feature a similar period of reused Block 4 launches sans any attempted recoveries.
In the meantime, we can wish the fairing recovery teams the best of luck and mourn several of the pioneers of reusable rocketry. Here’s to hoping that we are treated to a live view of each booster’s demise in homage to their achievements.
Elon Musk
Rumored SpaceX-xAI merger gets apparent confirmation from Elon Musk
The comment follows reports that the rocket maker is weighing a transaction that could further consolidate Musk’s space and AI ventures.
Elon Musk appeared to confirm reports that SpaceX is exploring a potential merger with artificial intelligence startup xAI by responding positively to a post about the reported transaction on X.
Musk’s comment follows reports that the rocket maker is weighing a transaction that could further consolidate his space and AI ventures.
SpaceX xAI merger
As per a recent Reuters report, SpaceX has held discussions about merging with xAI, with the proposed structure potentially involving an exchange of xAI shares for SpaceX stock. The value, structure, and timing of any deal have not been finalized, and no agreement has been signed.
Musk appeared to acknowledge the report in a brief reply on X, responding “Yeah” to a post that described SpaceX as a future “Dyson Swarm company.” The comment references a Dyson Swarm, a sci-fi megastructure concept that consists of a massive network of satellites or structures that orbit a celestial body to harness its energy.
Reuters noted that two entities were formed in Nevada on January 21 to facilitate a potential transaction for the possible SpaceX-xAI merger. The discussions remain ongoing, and a transaction is not yet guaranteed, however.
AI and space infrastructure
A potential merger with xAI would align with Musk’s stated strategy of integrating artificial intelligence development with space-based systems. Musk has previously said that space-based infrastructure could support large-scale computing by leveraging continuous solar energy, an approach he has framed as economically scalable over time.
xAI already has operational ties to Musk’s other companies. The startup develops Grok, a large language model that holds a U.S. Department of Defense contract valued at up to $200 million. AI also plays a central role in SpaceX’s Starlink and Starshield satellite programs, which rely on automation and machine learning for network management and national security applications.
Musk has previously consolidated his businesses through share-based transactions, including Tesla’s acquisition of SolarCity in 2016 and xAI’s acquisition of X last year. Bloomberg has also claimed that Musk is considering a merger between SpaceX and Tesla in the future.
Tesla analyst Gary Black of The Future Fund claims that the company is making a big mistake getting rid of the Model S and Model X. Instead, he believes another vehicle within the company’s lineup should be discontinued: the Cybertruck.
Black divested The Future Fund from all Tesla holdings last year, but he still covers the stock as an analyst as it falls in the technology and autonomy sectors, which he covers.
In a new comment on Thursday, Black said the Cybertruck should be the vehicle Tesla gets rid of due to the negatives it has drawn to the company.
The Cybertruck is also selling in an underwhelming fashion considering the production capacity Tesla has set aside for it. It’s worth noting it is still the best-selling electric pickup on the market, and it has outlasted other EV truck projects as other manufacturers are receding their efforts.
Black said:
“IMHO it’s a mistake to keep Tesla Cybertruck which has negative brand equity and sold 10,000 units last year, and discontinue S/X which have strong repeat brand loyalty and together sold 30K units and are highly profitable. Why not discontinue CT and covert S/X to be fully autonomous?”
IMHO it’s a mistake to keep $TSLA Cybertruck which has negative brand equity and sold 10,000 units last year, and discontinue S/X which have strong repeat brand loyalty and together sold 30K units and are highly profitable. Why not discontinue CT and covert S/X to be fully…
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) January 29, 2026
On Wednesday, CEO Elon Musk confirmed that Tesla planned to transition Model S and Model X production lines at the Fremont Factory to handle manufacturing efforts of the Optimus Gen 3 robot.
Musk said that it was time to wind down the S and X programs “with an honorable discharge,” also noting that the two cars are not major contributors to Tesla’s mission any longer, as its automotive division is more focused on autonomy, which will be handled by Model 3, Model Y, and Cybercab.
Tesla begins Cybertruck deliveries in a new region for the first time
The news has drawn conflicting perspectives, with many Tesla fans upset about the decision, especially as it ends the production of the largest car in the company’s lineup. Tesla’s focus is on smaller ride-sharing vehicles, especially as the vast majority of rides consist of two or fewer passengers.
The S and X do not fit in these plans.
Nevertheless, the Cybertruck fits in Tesla’s future plans. Musk said the pickup will be needed for the transportation of local goods. Musk also said Cybertruck would be transitioned to an autonomous line.
In a groundbreaking new report from Reuters, SpaceX is reportedly discussing merger possibilities with xAI ahead of the space exploration company’s plans to IPO later this year, in what would be a blockbuster move.
The outlet said it would combine rockets and Starlink satellites, as well as the X social media platform and AI project Grok under one roof. The report cites “a person briefed on the matter and two recent company filings seen by Reuters.”
Musk, nor SpaceX or xAI, have commented on the report, so, as of now, it is unconfirmed.
With that being said, the proposed merger would bring shares of xAI in exchange for shares of SpaceX. Both companies were registered in Nevada to expedite the transaction, according to the report.
On January 21, both entities were registered in Nevada. The report continues:
“One of them, a limited liability company, lists SpaceX and Bret Johnsen, the company’s chief financial officer, as managing members, while the other lists Johnsen as the company’s only officer, the filings show.”
The source also stated that some xAI executives could be given the option to receive cash in lieu of SpaceX stock. No agreement has been reached, nothing has been signed, and the timing and structure, as well as other important details, have not been finalized.
SpaceX is valued at $800 billion and is the most valuable privately held company, while xAI is valued at $230 billion as of November. SpaceX could be going public later this year, as Musk has said as recently as December that the company would offer its stock publicly.
The plans could help move along plans for large-scale data centers in space, something Musk has discussed on several occasions over the past few months.
At the World Economic Forum last week, Musk said:
“It’s a no-brainer for building solar-powered AI data centers in space, because as I mentioned, it’s also very cold in space. The net effect is that the lowest cost place to put AI will be space and that will be true within two to three years, three at the latest.”
He also said on X that “the most important thing in the next 3-4 years is data centers in space.”
If the report is true and the two companies end up coming together, it would not be the first time Musk’s companies have ended up coming together. He used Tesla stock to purchase SolarCity back in 2016. Last year, X became part of xAI in a share swap.
Rumored SpaceX-xAI merger gets apparent confirmation from Elon Musk
Tesla analyst claims another vehicle, not Model S and X, should be discontinued
