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SpaceX teases extreme Falcon 9 launch cadence goals in Starship planning doc

Falcon 9 rolls out to Pad 39A in February 2019 for Crew Dragon's orbital launch debut, known as Demo-1. (NASA - Joel Kowsky)

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Published as part of an August 2019 environmental assessment (EA) draft for Starship’s prospective Pad 39A launch facilities, SpaceX revealed plans for a truly mindboggling number of annual Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches by 2024.

As environmental planning documents, the figures should be taken with a large grain of salt and be treated as near-absolute ceilings rather than practical goals. Nevertheless, SpaceX revealed plans for its two Florida launch sites (LC-40 and LC-39A) to ultimately support as many as 70 annual launches of Falcon 9 and Heavy by 2024, less than five years from now.

Simply put, even the most dogmatic fan would have to balk at least a little bit at the numbers SpaceX suggested in its Starship EA draft. More specifically, SpaceX apparently has plans to support as many as 20 annual Falcon 9/Heavy launches from Pad 39A and an incredible 50 annual Falcon 9 launches from LC-40 as early as 2024.

“SpaceX plans to increase the Falcon launch frequency to 20 launches per year from LC-39A and up to 50 launches per year from LC-40 by the year 2024. However, as Starship/Super Heavy launches gradually increase to 24 launches per year, the number of launches of the Falcon would decrease.

–SpaceX, Starship Environmental Assessment Draft, August 2019

SpaceX’s massive Launch Complex 39A is pictured here. (USAF – Hope Geiger, February 2019)
Falcon 9 B1047 lifts off from SpaceX’s LC-40 pad on August 6th, 2019. (SpaceX)

Two obvious options

Given just how significant of an increase a 70-launch annual cadence would be for SpaceX relative to their current record of 21 launches, it’s entirely possible that these numbers are really just a pipe dream included in a pending environmental assessment to hedge bets just in case a similar launch frequency is achieved over the next five years.

On the other hand, it’s possible that SpaceX – just now coming into the ability to reliably achieve a much higher cadence – has coincidentally become payload-constrained at almost the same time, meaning that the company’s customers’ payloads just aren’t ready for launch. This would explain, for example, why SpaceX has only launched 10 times this year when the company had already completed 15 launches by August 2018.

SpaceX completed its 10th launch of 2019 on August 6th, placing the AMOS-17 communications satellite into a healthy orbit. (SpaceX)

Additionally, it can be almost unequivocally assumed that all but 15-20 of those supposed 70 annual launches would come from SpaceX’s own internal demand for Starlink launch capacity. Assuming no improvements between now and 2024, 50 Falcon 9 launches could place as many as 3000 Starlink satellites in orbit in a single year, equivalent to more than 25% of the entire proposed ~11,800-satellite constellation.

Barring regulatory changes to US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and International Telecommunication Union (ITU) requirements, SpaceX must launch at least half of all Starlink satellites (~5900) by November 2024 and finish launching the remaining ~5900 by November 2027. If SpaceX fails to reach those deployment milestones, the company runs the risk of losing Starlink’s domestic and international licenses to operate.

SpaceX successfully launched an unprecedented set of 60 prototype Starlink satellites (internally nicknamed “v0.9”) in May 2019. (SpaceX)

This would help to explain why SpaceX says that it’s planning to reach a maximum cadence of 70 annual launches “by 2024”, given that 2024 will be a pivotal year in the eyes of regulations currently in effect for Starlink.

Starship confusion

As noted in the quote above, SpaceX plans to eventually phase out Falcon 9 and Heavy launches as the company’s next-generation Starship and Super Heavy launch vehicle gradually comes online, proves itself reliable, and begins operational launch activities. According to SpaceX, given just how much mass Starship can nominally launch relative to both Falcon 9 and Heavy, far fewer launches will be needed to accomplish the tasks that would otherwise require several times more launches of SpaceX’s smaller vehicles.

SpaceX’s initial Environmental Assessment for Starship launches from Pad 39A caps the rocket’s maximum cadence at 24 annual launches. Oddly, this directly contradicts the goals set for Starship (formerly BFR) by CEO Elon Musk and SpaceX more generally. By building a launch vehicle that is fully and rapidly reusable, the goal has long been to deliver cheap, aircraft-like access to orbit at a completely unprecedented scale.

Starship was never meant to lower SpaceX’s annual launch cadence. (SpaceX)

This would technically mean that SpaceX could actually dramatically increase its launch cadence without increasing costs, allowing the company to perform currently nonsensical missions where Starship might launch payloads weighing just 5-10% of its total payload capacity. Airline operations routinely do things of a similar nature, sometimes flying just a fraction of their maximum passenger load to destinations for a variety of reasons.

Additionally, SpaceX has consistently indicated that Starship will rely heavily on orbital refueling to accomplish its ultimate deep space ambitions. Previous presentations from Elon Musk have shown that launches to the Mars or Moon with significant payload would require no fewer than five separate tanker launches and orbital refuelings, all of which would classify as one of the 24 annual launches SpaceX has described in its August 2019 EA draft. On their own, launching two Starships to Mars with 100 tons of payload each would require no fewer than 10-12 launches.

A 2017 overview of a Starship (then BFS) mission to Mars. (SpaceX)

Ultimately, it’s unwise to draw any substantial conclusions from an Environmental Assessment like the one the above information has been taken from. This 39A-specific EA also ignores the possibility of a similar launch facility being developed in Boca Chica, Texas, which SpaceX explicitly acknowledges.

This particular draft is also the first Starship-related EA ever filed by SpaceX, and the company may thus be treating it more as a bare minimum with the intention of eventually pursuing far more ambitious launch rates once Starship has been established.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla adjusts one key detail of Robotaxi operations in Austin

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Tesla is adjusting one key detail of Robotaxi operations in Austin: service hours.

Tesla’s Robotaxi platform in Austin has been active since late June and has been running smoothly since then. It has its limits, as Tesla has set hours that Robotaxis can operate, as well as a distinct Service Area, also known as a geofence, which has expanded three times already.

While the geofence is currently approximately 170 square miles in size, Tesla has recently enabled freeway drives, which also necessitated an adjustment to the company’s strategy with its “Safety Monitors.”

Tesla explains why Robotaxis now have safety monitors in the driver’s seat

Traditionally, they sit in the passenger’s seat. During highway driving, they move to the driver’s seat.

These are just a few adjustments that have been made over the past two and a half months. Now, Tesla is adjusting the service hours of Robotaxi operation in Austin, but only slightly.

Tesla will now operate its Robotaxi ride-hailing service from 6 a.m. to 2 a.m., extending the hours by two hours. It previously shut down at midnight.

Tesla has implemented a variety of safeguards to ensure riders and drivers are safe during Robotaxi rides, and they have made it a point to adjust things when they feel confident that it will not cause any issues.

Many people have been critical of Robotaxi, especially because a person sits in the front of the car.

However, an accident or some type of mistake could do more damage to the autonomous travel sector than anything else. This would not just impact Tesla, but any company operating an autonomous ride-hailing service in the country.

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Tesla Model Y ownership two weeks in: what I love and what I don’t

With any new car, I don’t really find things I dislike within the first few months; the novelty of a shiny new vehicle usually wears off eventually.

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Credit: Tesla

I am officially two weeks into Tesla ownership, having picked up my Model Y Long Range All-Wheel-Drive on Saturday, August 30. I have many things I really love, and I’ll do my best to come up with a few things I don’t, although I find that to be very difficult currently.

With any new car, I don’t really find things I dislike within the first few months; the novelty of a shiny new vehicle usually wears off eventually. In the past, I’ve had a car I only kept for nine months, but I loved it for the first two months. I am sure down the road, some things about the Tesla will bother me, but right now, I don’t have too much to complain about.

As for the things I love, I’ll try to keep it to just five, and as I continue to write about my ownership experience in the coming months, I’ll see if these things change.

A Quick Rundown

In the two weeks I have had my new Model Y, I have driven 783 miles. I have driven it manually, used Full Self-Driving, navigated tight city streets in Baltimore, and driven spiritedly on the winding back roads of Pennsylvania.

I traded my ICE vehicle for a Tesla Model Y: here’s how it went

I have had the opportunity to put it to the test in a variety of ways, and I feel like I have a great idea of this car and how it handles and drives just two weeks in.

What I Love About My Tesla Model Y

I am only going to pick a handful of things, but do not take this list as a complete one. I truly have so many things I love about this car, but I want to mention the ones that are not necessarily “novelties.” I love the A/C seats, but it’s not something I feel deserves a mention here, because it would not likely sway someone to consider the car.

Instead, I want to highlight what I feel are things that truly set the Model Y apart from cars I’ve had in the past.

Tesla Full Self-Driving

Available on all Teslas, Full Self-Driving is something I use every day. It is not only a convenience thing, but it is also truly a fun feature to track improvements, and it’s been fun to show a lot of my friends who are not familiar with its capabilities just how safe and impressive it is.

My Fiancè and I have watched Full Self-Driving make slight changes in performance in the two weeks we’ve been using it. I tracked one instance on a Pennsylvania back road when the car stopped at an “Except Right Turn” Stop Sign. Initially, the car stopped, holding up traffic behind it. Just days later, FSD proceeded through that same Stop Sign cautiously, but without coming to a complete stop, which is the proper way to navigate through it.

This quick adjustment was very impressive, and it even caught the attention of my better half. I will say it has been very fun to watch her fall in love with this car after being very reluctant to watch me get rid of our Bronco Sport.

The Handling

Tesla refined the suspension with the new Model Y, and you can surely feel it. Coming from a larger SUV, I did miss being able to really push the limits of my car on a beautiful, sunny, and warm day, and the winding roads of Pennsylvania are calling me for a drive.

The way this car hugs turns and genuinely puts a smile on my face when I’m pushing it. Dare I say I like driving it more than I like it driving me?

Interior Storage

One of my biggest complaints about my Bronco Sport was that, despite being an SUV, it felt smaller than it was supposed to be. I had trouble fitting golf bags and luggage in the back without having other storage options. It led me to install a roof rack and get a cargo container. I would have to put longer clubs in the back seat so the bags could lie without clubs getting bent.

I don’t seem to have a significant problem with this in the Model Y. Plus, the frunk and the additional cargo under the floor of the trunk are great for bags and other things. It offers 10 cubic feet more of space with the seats down than the Bronco Sport does.

The Entertainment

Not only is the sound system in this car absolutely unbelievable, but I also really enjoy the Tesla Theater, which is really something that has revolutionized how we spend our time in the car.

Charging at the Superchargers has become a new way for us to spend time together. Even if it’s just 30 minutes, my Fiancé’s busy work schedule at the hospital means we don’t get to spend as much time together as we would like. The charging lets us go grab a snack, watch a movie or show in the car, and just be with each other.

It’s honestly my favorite thing about the car so far, that we’ve both truly enjoyed what it has done for us. It put a smile on my face to hear her say, “It’s just so much fun to be in this car” last night when we met friends for dinner.

What I Don’t Love

I’m just going to get nitpicky here, because I don’t have much to complain about.

The Paint

I love the Diamond Black, and it gets so many compliments. However, it sure does get dirty fast. I feel like I’m going to have to invest in a car wash membership or set aside time each week to clean it. This is not a Tesla-specific problem, of course.

Climate Control

Another “first-world problem,” but sometimes I do have trouble getting the A/C to go right where I need it. I feel like, to feel the air, I have to put the fan speed to 7 or higher.

Swing Mode has been a real savior in this sense, but my Fiancè sometimes complains that my cold air will hit her when she’s already freezing. I think this is just something I need to get used to, as the vents are significantly different than any other car. It’s really not that bad, but it is worth mentioning that we’ve both said we are still adjusting to it early on.

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Tesla brings closure to head-scratching Cybertruck trim

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla has ended the production and sale of a Cybertruck trim level that had many people scratching their heads. The move comes after slow sales on the trim, as many Cybertruck buyers opted for other configurations that seemed to be a better value for the money.

On Friday, Tesla officially brought closure to the Long Range Rear-Wheel-Drive configuration of the Cybertruck, a build that was introduced earlier this year at a lower price point than its All-Wheel-Drive counterparts, but missed many of the key features that made the Cybertruck, the Cybertruck.

Tesla Cybertruck RWD production in full swing at Giga Texas

Rolling the variant out at a price of $69,990, only $10,000 less than that of the All-Wheel-Drive configuration. However, it was also void of many other things:

  • Single Motor
  • Textile Seats instead of Leather
  • 7-Speaker Audio System instead of 15-Speakers
  • No Rear Touchscreen
  • No Powered Tonneau Cover for Truck Bed
  • No 120v/240v outlets

For $79,990, just $10,000 more, owners could receive all of these premium features, plus a more capable All-Wheel-Drive powertrain, which truly made this Rear-Wheel-Drive build of the Cybertruck a sitting duck for criticism.

It was simply not enough meat for the price, and demand was evidently low. From those I spoke to, orders were few and far between; people simply found more value in the All-Wheel-Drive configuration based solely on the additional motor. Adding all the premium interior and functionality features made it a no-brainer.

In a way, it seems Tesla was overly optimistic about the Rear-Wheel-Drive configuration of the Cybertruck, but even after it was launched, plenty of loyal fans were confused by it:

The Cybertruck is a great vehicle, and it is among the best vehicles in the company’s lineup. However, it really missed a price point for the Rear-Wheel-Drive configuration that was effective enough to drive people toward it. Many said they would have considered it if Tesla could have brought the price down into the high $40,000 or low $50,000 range.

I took a Tesla Cybertruck weekend Demo Drive – Here’s what I learned

It seems it just did not have the appeal to keep up. Now, Tesla has the All-Wheel-Drive and Cyberbeast for $72,490 and $114,990, respectively.

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