News
SpaceX teases extreme Falcon 9 launch cadence goals in Starship planning doc
Published as part of an August 2019 environmental assessment (EA) draft for Starship’s prospective Pad 39A launch facilities, SpaceX revealed plans for a truly mindboggling number of annual Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches by 2024.
As environmental planning documents, the figures should be taken with a large grain of salt and be treated as near-absolute ceilings rather than practical goals. Nevertheless, SpaceX revealed plans for its two Florida launch sites (LC-40 and LC-39A) to ultimately support as many as 70 annual launches of Falcon 9 and Heavy by 2024, less than five years from now.
Simply put, even the most dogmatic fan would have to balk at least a little bit at the numbers SpaceX suggested in its Starship EA draft. More specifically, SpaceX apparently has plans to support as many as 20 annual Falcon 9/Heavy launches from Pad 39A and an incredible 50 annual Falcon 9 launches from LC-40 as early as 2024.
“SpaceX plans to increase the Falcon launch frequency to 20 launches per year from LC-39A and up to 50 launches per year from LC-40 by the year 2024. However, as Starship/Super Heavy launches gradually increase to 24 launches per year, the number of launches of the Falcon would decrease.“
–SpaceX, Starship Environmental Assessment Draft, August 2019


Two obvious options
Given just how significant of an increase a 70-launch annual cadence would be for SpaceX relative to their current record of 21 launches, it’s entirely possible that these numbers are really just a pipe dream included in a pending environmental assessment to hedge bets just in case a similar launch frequency is achieved over the next five years.
On the other hand, it’s possible that SpaceX – just now coming into the ability to reliably achieve a much higher cadence – has coincidentally become payload-constrained at almost the same time, meaning that the company’s customers’ payloads just aren’t ready for launch. This would explain, for example, why SpaceX has only launched 10 times this year when the company had already completed 15 launches by August 2018.

Additionally, it can be almost unequivocally assumed that all but 15-20 of those supposed 70 annual launches would come from SpaceX’s own internal demand for Starlink launch capacity. Assuming no improvements between now and 2024, 50 Falcon 9 launches could place as many as 3000 Starlink satellites in orbit in a single year, equivalent to more than 25% of the entire proposed ~11,800-satellite constellation.
Barring regulatory changes to US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and International Telecommunication Union (ITU) requirements, SpaceX must launch at least half of all Starlink satellites (~5900) by November 2024 and finish launching the remaining ~5900 by November 2027. If SpaceX fails to reach those deployment milestones, the company runs the risk of losing Starlink’s domestic and international licenses to operate.

This would help to explain why SpaceX says that it’s planning to reach a maximum cadence of 70 annual launches “by 2024”, given that 2024 will be a pivotal year in the eyes of regulations currently in effect for Starlink.
Starship confusion
As noted in the quote above, SpaceX plans to eventually phase out Falcon 9 and Heavy launches as the company’s next-generation Starship and Super Heavy launch vehicle gradually comes online, proves itself reliable, and begins operational launch activities. According to SpaceX, given just how much mass Starship can nominally launch relative to both Falcon 9 and Heavy, far fewer launches will be needed to accomplish the tasks that would otherwise require several times more launches of SpaceX’s smaller vehicles.
SpaceX’s initial Environmental Assessment for Starship launches from Pad 39A caps the rocket’s maximum cadence at 24 annual launches. Oddly, this directly contradicts the goals set for Starship (formerly BFR) by CEO Elon Musk and SpaceX more generally. By building a launch vehicle that is fully and rapidly reusable, the goal has long been to deliver cheap, aircraft-like access to orbit at a completely unprecedented scale.

This would technically mean that SpaceX could actually dramatically increase its launch cadence without increasing costs, allowing the company to perform currently nonsensical missions where Starship might launch payloads weighing just 5-10% of its total payload capacity. Airline operations routinely do things of a similar nature, sometimes flying just a fraction of their maximum passenger load to destinations for a variety of reasons.
Additionally, SpaceX has consistently indicated that Starship will rely heavily on orbital refueling to accomplish its ultimate deep space ambitions. Previous presentations from Elon Musk have shown that launches to the Mars or Moon with significant payload would require no fewer than five separate tanker launches and orbital refuelings, all of which would classify as one of the 24 annual launches SpaceX has described in its August 2019 EA draft. On their own, launching two Starships to Mars with 100 tons of payload each would require no fewer than 10-12 launches.

Ultimately, it’s unwise to draw any substantial conclusions from an Environmental Assessment like the one the above information has been taken from. This 39A-specific EA also ignores the possibility of a similar launch facility being developed in Boca Chica, Texas, which SpaceX explicitly acknowledges.
This particular draft is also the first Starship-related EA ever filed by SpaceX, and the company may thus be treating it more as a bare minimum with the intention of eventually pursuing far more ambitious launch rates once Starship has been established.
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Cybertruck
Tesla announces delivery timeline for Cybertruck in new market
“Coming soon! Estimated deliveries in Q1 for UAE.”
Tesla announced its delivery timeline for the Cybertruck as it heads to a new market.
Tesla Cybertruck deliveries started in the United States and Canada back in late 2023. However, the company has been looking to expand the all-electric pickup to new markets, including the Middle East, for which it opened up orders for earlier this year.
Initially, Tesla planned to launch deliveries late this year, but there has been a slight adjustment to the timeline, and the company now anticipates the pickup to make its way to the first adopters in the United Arab Emirates in Q1 2026.
This was confirmed by the Tesla Cybertruck program’s lead engineer, Wes Morrill:
Coming soon! Estimated deliveries in Q1 for UAE
— Wes (@wmorrill3) November 2, 2025
Tesla first opened orders for the Cybertruck in the Middle East in mid-September of this year. It will be priced at AED 404,900 for the Dual Motor All-Wheel-Drive ($110,254) and AED 454,900 ($123,869) for the Cyberbeast trim.
The Cybertruck has been a highly anticipated vehicle in many parts of the world, but its ability to be sold in various regions is what is truly causing delays in the company’s efforts to bring the electric pickup worldwide.
Tesla confirms Cybertruck will make its way out of North America this year
In Europe, various agencies have challenged the design of the Cybertruck, arguing that it is unsafe for pedestrians due to its sharp edges and “boxy” design.
Agencies in the EU have said the vehicle’s “blade-like” protrusions are a violation of rules that ban sharp exterior edges that could cause severe injuries.
In Asia, Tesla will likely have to develop a smaller, more compact version of the vehicle as it does not align with local standards for urban environments. However, Tesla filed for energy consumption approval for the Cybertruck in December 2024, but there has been no real update on the status of this particular inquiry.
Overall, these issues highlight a real bottleneck in futuristic vehicle designs and the out-of-date regulations that inhibit the vehicle from becoming more widely available. Of course, Tesla has teased some other designs, including a more traditional pickup or even a compact Cybertruck build, but the company is not one to shy away from its commitments.
Nevertheless, the Cybertruck will appear in the Middle East for the first time in 2026.
Elon Musk
Tesla teases new AI5 chip that will revolutionize self-driving
Elon Musk revealed new information on Tesla’s AI5, previously known as Hardware 5, chip, for self-driving, which will be manufactured by both Samsung and TSMC.
The AI5 chip is Tesla’s next-generation hardware chip for its self-driving program, Optimus humanoid robots, and other AI-driven features in both vehicles and other applications. It will be the successor to the current AI4, previously known as Hardware 4, which is currently utilized in Tesla’s newest vehicles.
Elon Musk reveals Tesla’s HW5 release date, and that it won’t be called HW5
AI5 is specially optimized for Tesla use, as it will work alongside the company’s Neural Networks to focus on real-time inference to make safe and logical decisions during operation. It was first teased by Tesla in mid-2024 as Musk called it “an amazing design” and “an immense jump” from the current AI4 chip.
It will be roughly 4o times faster, have 8 times the raw compute, 9 times the memory capacity, 5 times the memory bandwidth, and 3 times the efficiency per watt.
It will be manufactured by both TSMC and Samsung at their Arizona and Texas fab locations, respectively.
Here’s what Musk revealed about the chip yesterday:
Different Versions
Samsung and TSMC will make slightly different versions of the AI5 chip, “simply because they translate designs to physical form differently.” However, Musk said the goal is that its AI software would work identically.
This was a real concern for some who are familiar with chip manufacturing, as Apple’s A9 “Chipgate” saga seemed to be echoing through Tesla.
Back in 2015, it was found that Apple’s A9 chips had different performances based on who manufactured them. TSMC and Samsung were both building the chips, but it was found that Samsung’s chips had shorter battery life than TSMC-fabricated versions.
Apple concluded that the variance was about 2-3 percent. However, Tesla will look to avoid this altogether.
Release and Implementation into Vehicles
Musk said that some samples will be available next year, and “maybe a small number of units” would equip the chip as well. However, high-volume production is only possible in 2027.
This means, based on Tesla’s own timeline for Cybercab production in Q2 2026, early iterations of the vehicle would rely on AI4. Many believe AI4 can be utilized for solved self-driving, but the power of subsequent versions, including AI5 and beyond, will be more capable.
AI6 and Beyond
AI6 will utilize the same fabs as AI5, but there would be a theoretical boost in performance by two times with this version.
AI6 could enter volume production by mid-2028. However, AI7, which Musk only briefly mentioned, “will need different fabs, as it is more adventurous.”
News
Tesla makes a splash at China’s Import Expo with Cybercab and Optimus
It appears that Elon Musk’s vision is something that still resonates with people.
Tesla’s fully autonomous Cybercab made its first appearance in the Asia-Pacific region at the 8th China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai on November 5, becoming the centerpiece of an event that drew 12 of the world’s leading automakers.
The new model offers a glimpse into Tesla’s driverless ride-hailing future, and based on the reception of the event’s attendees, it appears that Elon Musk’s vision is something that still resonates with people.
Tesla showcases its driverless vision with the Cybercab
At this year’s expo, themed “Mobility, Infinite Possibilities,” Tesla’s futuristic two-seat Cybercab stood out as a showcase of complete autonomy. According to Tesla staff, the vehicle lacks both a steering wheel and pedals, relying entirely on Tesla’s cameras and an end-to-end neural network designed for full self-driving.
The Cybercab will ultimately serve in the company’s expanding Robotaxi fleet, a cornerstone of Elon Musk’s long-promised autonomous mobility network. During the event, a Tesla employee emphasized that the Cybercab’s model’s compact layout reflects real-world usage, as 92% of trips involve just one or two passengers, as noted in a Sina News report. Trips that require more passengers could easily be handled by the Model 3 and Model Y, which are both capable of seating four, or even five passengers.
Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot that is designed for both home and industrial use, was also present at the event. Similar to the Cybercab, Optimus also attracted quite a lot of attention from the event’s attendees.
Automakers reaffirm commitment to Chinese innovation
Other global automakers, including Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, and Honda, also displayed cutting-edge concept cars and intelligent systems, but few captured the same interest as Tesla’s bold showcase of its autonomy and robotics.
Beyond new models, this year’s CIIE highlighted a renewed focus on local innovation and collaboration in China’s rapidly evolving EV landscape. Executives from Volkswagen, Audi, and General Motors reaffirmed that their long-term strategies center on “in China, for China,” strengthening R&D operations and forming tech partnerships with domestic suppliers.
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