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SpaceX teases extreme Falcon 9 launch cadence goals in Starship planning doc

Falcon 9 rolls out to Pad 39A in February 2019 for Crew Dragon's orbital launch debut, known as Demo-1. (NASA - Joel Kowsky)

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Published as part of an August 2019 environmental assessment (EA) draft for Starship’s prospective Pad 39A launch facilities, SpaceX revealed plans for a truly mindboggling number of annual Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches by 2024.

As environmental planning documents, the figures should be taken with a large grain of salt and be treated as near-absolute ceilings rather than practical goals. Nevertheless, SpaceX revealed plans for its two Florida launch sites (LC-40 and LC-39A) to ultimately support as many as 70 annual launches of Falcon 9 and Heavy by 2024, less than five years from now.

Simply put, even the most dogmatic fan would have to balk at least a little bit at the numbers SpaceX suggested in its Starship EA draft. More specifically, SpaceX apparently has plans to support as many as 20 annual Falcon 9/Heavy launches from Pad 39A and an incredible 50 annual Falcon 9 launches from LC-40 as early as 2024.

“SpaceX plans to increase the Falcon launch frequency to 20 launches per year from LC-39A and up to 50 launches per year from LC-40 by the year 2024. However, as Starship/Super Heavy launches gradually increase to 24 launches per year, the number of launches of the Falcon would decrease.

–SpaceX, Starship Environmental Assessment Draft, August 2019

SpaceX’s massive Launch Complex 39A is pictured here. (USAF – Hope Geiger, February 2019)
Falcon 9 B1047 lifts off from SpaceX’s LC-40 pad on August 6th, 2019. (SpaceX)

Two obvious options

Given just how significant of an increase a 70-launch annual cadence would be for SpaceX relative to their current record of 21 launches, it’s entirely possible that these numbers are really just a pipe dream included in a pending environmental assessment to hedge bets just in case a similar launch frequency is achieved over the next five years.

On the other hand, it’s possible that SpaceX – just now coming into the ability to reliably achieve a much higher cadence – has coincidentally become payload-constrained at almost the same time, meaning that the company’s customers’ payloads just aren’t ready for launch. This would explain, for example, why SpaceX has only launched 10 times this year when the company had already completed 15 launches by August 2018.

SpaceX completed its 10th launch of 2019 on August 6th, placing the AMOS-17 communications satellite into a healthy orbit. (SpaceX)

Additionally, it can be almost unequivocally assumed that all but 15-20 of those supposed 70 annual launches would come from SpaceX’s own internal demand for Starlink launch capacity. Assuming no improvements between now and 2024, 50 Falcon 9 launches could place as many as 3000 Starlink satellites in orbit in a single year, equivalent to more than 25% of the entire proposed ~11,800-satellite constellation.

Barring regulatory changes to US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and International Telecommunication Union (ITU) requirements, SpaceX must launch at least half of all Starlink satellites (~5900) by November 2024 and finish launching the remaining ~5900 by November 2027. If SpaceX fails to reach those deployment milestones, the company runs the risk of losing Starlink’s domestic and international licenses to operate.

SpaceX successfully launched an unprecedented set of 60 prototype Starlink satellites (internally nicknamed “v0.9”) in May 2019. (SpaceX)

This would help to explain why SpaceX says that it’s planning to reach a maximum cadence of 70 annual launches “by 2024”, given that 2024 will be a pivotal year in the eyes of regulations currently in effect for Starlink.

Starship confusion

As noted in the quote above, SpaceX plans to eventually phase out Falcon 9 and Heavy launches as the company’s next-generation Starship and Super Heavy launch vehicle gradually comes online, proves itself reliable, and begins operational launch activities. According to SpaceX, given just how much mass Starship can nominally launch relative to both Falcon 9 and Heavy, far fewer launches will be needed to accomplish the tasks that would otherwise require several times more launches of SpaceX’s smaller vehicles.

SpaceX’s initial Environmental Assessment for Starship launches from Pad 39A caps the rocket’s maximum cadence at 24 annual launches. Oddly, this directly contradicts the goals set for Starship (formerly BFR) by CEO Elon Musk and SpaceX more generally. By building a launch vehicle that is fully and rapidly reusable, the goal has long been to deliver cheap, aircraft-like access to orbit at a completely unprecedented scale.

Starship was never meant to lower SpaceX’s annual launch cadence. (SpaceX)

This would technically mean that SpaceX could actually dramatically increase its launch cadence without increasing costs, allowing the company to perform currently nonsensical missions where Starship might launch payloads weighing just 5-10% of its total payload capacity. Airline operations routinely do things of a similar nature, sometimes flying just a fraction of their maximum passenger load to destinations for a variety of reasons.

Additionally, SpaceX has consistently indicated that Starship will rely heavily on orbital refueling to accomplish its ultimate deep space ambitions. Previous presentations from Elon Musk have shown that launches to the Mars or Moon with significant payload would require no fewer than five separate tanker launches and orbital refuelings, all of which would classify as one of the 24 annual launches SpaceX has described in its August 2019 EA draft. On their own, launching two Starships to Mars with 100 tons of payload each would require no fewer than 10-12 launches.

A 2017 overview of a Starship (then BFS) mission to Mars. (SpaceX)

Ultimately, it’s unwise to draw any substantial conclusions from an Environmental Assessment like the one the above information has been taken from. This 39A-specific EA also ignores the possibility of a similar launch facility being developed in Boca Chica, Texas, which SpaceX explicitly acknowledges.

This particular draft is also the first Starship-related EA ever filed by SpaceX, and the company may thus be treating it more as a bare minimum with the intention of eventually pursuing far more ambitious launch rates once Starship has been established.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk reaffirms Tesla Semi mass production in 2026

The Tesla Semi factory near Giga Nevada is expected to be capable of producing 50,000 units of the Class 8 all-electric truck per year.

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Credit: Tesla Semi/X

Elon Musk has reaffirmed the Tesla Semi’s mass production date. He mentioned the update in a post on social media platform X during the weekend.

Tesla Semi Factory

The Tesla Semi was initially unveiled in late 2017, and its first deliveries were held in December 2022. Since then, Tesla has only been delivering the Semi to a handful of customers while it builds a dedicated factory for the Class 8 all-electric truck near its Giga Nevada facility.

Drone flyovers of the Tesla Semi factory over the past months have suggested that progress in the construction of the facility has been steady. More recent flyovers have even suggested that Tesla is now busy outfitting the facility with the necessary equipment for the mass production of the Semi.

Elon Musk’s Recent Comments

In a recent comment on X, Elon Musk reiterated the idea that the Semi was indeed expected to be mass produced in 2026. Musk shared his update as a response to a Tesla bull who recalled that Bill Gates did not believe that the Semi was feasible due to the limitations of battery technology. In his response, Musk posted a laughing emoji together with “Tesla Semi will be in volume production next year.” 

The Tesla Semi factory near Giga Nevada is expected to be capable of producing 50,000 units of the Class 8 all-electric truck per year. While this number may not be attained by the facility right out of the gate, it would only be a matter of time before the factory manages to hit an optimal production rate.

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In a video posted on social media earlier this year, Dan Priestley, who leads the Semi program at Tesla stated that the company is preparing for volume production over the coming quarters. With such a pace, the factory should be able to mass produce the Semi in 2026. 

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Elon Musk confirms Tesla AI6 chip is Project Dojo’s successor

Tesla’s AI5 and AI6 chips are expected to be rolled out to the company’s consumer products.

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tesla-supercomputer-pre-dojo
Credit: Tim Zaman/Twitter

Earlier this week, reports emerged stating that Tesla has stepped back from its Project Dojo initiative. While the reports were initially framed as a negative development for the electric vehicle maker’s autonomous driving efforts, CEO Elon Musk later noted on X that Tesla was indeed halting its Dojo initiative.

Elon Musk’s Confirmation

As per Musk, Tesla was shuttering Project Dojo because it does not make sense for the company to divide its resources and scale two different AI chip designs. Dojo, after all, is designed to train the company’s autonomous driving program, and thus, it would not be rolled out to Tesla’s consumer products.

In a series of posts on X, Musk stated that it would make sense to just use Tesla’s AI5/AI6 to train its FSD and Autopilot systems. “In a supercomputer cluster, it would make sense to put many AI5/AI6 chips on a board, whether for inference or training, simply to reduce network cabling complexity & cost by a few orders of magnitude,” Musk said.

Tesla’s AI5 and AI6 chips are expected to be rolled out to the company’s consumer products, from Optimus to the Cybercab to the next-generation Roadster.

AI6 is Dojo’s Successor

What was particularly interesting about Musk’s comment was his mention of using AI5/AI6 chips for training. As per Musk, this strategy could be seen as “Dojo 3” in a way, since the performance of Tesla’s AI5 and AI6 chips is already notable. Musk’s comment about using AI6 chips for training caught the eye of many, including Apple and Rivian alumnus Phil Beisel, who noted that “AI6 is now Dojo.”

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“Dojo is Tesla’s AI training supercomputer, built around a custom chip known as the D1. The D1 and AI5/AI6 share many core design elements, particularly the math operations used in neural networks (e.g., matrix multiplication) and highly parallel processing.

“Dojo had a unique feature: chips arranged in a 5×5 grid using a system-on-wafer design, with etched interconnects enabling high-speed data transfer. In a sense, Dojo will live on as the generalized AI6. Going forward, all efforts will focus on AI6,” the tech veteran wrote in a post on X.

Elon Musk confirmed the Apple alumnus’ musings, with the CEO responding with a “bullseye” emoji. Musk is evidently excited for Tesla’s AI6 chip, which is expected to produced by Samsung’s upcoming Texas fabrication facility. In a post on X, Musk stated that he would personally be walking Samsung’s line to accelerate the output of Tesla’s AI6 computers.

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Cybertruck

Tesla’s new upgrade makes the Cybertruck extra-terrestrial

The upgrade was announced by the electric vehicle maker on social media platform X.

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Credit: Tesla

It took a while, but the Tesla Cybertruck’s rock sliders and battery armor upgrades have finally arrived. The upgrade was announced by the electric vehicle maker on social media platform X, to much appreciation from Cybertruck owners.

Tesla Releases Cybertruck Armor Package

As could be seen in Tesla’s official Shop, the Cybertruck Terrestrial Armor Package is available only for Foundation Series units for now, though non-Foundation Series vehicles should have access to the upgrade around September 2025. Price-wise, the armor package is quite reasonable at $3,500.

For that price, Cybertruck owners would be able to acquire enhanced rock sliders and an underbody battery shield that should allow the all-electric pickup truck to go through harsh terrain without any issues. Each purchase of the Terrestrial Armor Package includes 1 Underbody shield, 1 Left side structural rocker, and 1 Right side structural rocker.

Most importantly, the Armor Package’s price includes shipment to the customer’s preferred Tesla Service Center and installation.

Extra-Terrestrial

Tesla describes its Cybertruck Armor Package as follows: “Get extra-terrestrial. The Cybertruck Terrestrial Armor Package includes enhanced rock sliders and an underbody battery shield to provide greater protection from rocks and debris when off-roading on tough terrain. The rock sliders are constructed from coated steel and the underbody battery shield is constructed from aluminum for greater protection against scraping.”

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Initial impressions from a Cybertruck owner who was fortunate enough to test the Armor Package in real-world off-road conditions have been positive. The item’s pricing also seems to be quite appreciated by Cybertruck owners in forums such as the Cybertruck Owners Club, with some members stating that they would be acquiring the package for their own all-electric pickup trucks.

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