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SpaceX teases extreme Falcon 9 launch cadence goals in Starship planning doc

Falcon 9 rolls out to Pad 39A in February 2019 for Crew Dragon's orbital launch debut, known as Demo-1. (NASA - Joel Kowsky)

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Published as part of an August 2019 environmental assessment (EA) draft for Starship’s prospective Pad 39A launch facilities, SpaceX revealed plans for a truly mindboggling number of annual Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches by 2024.

As environmental planning documents, the figures should be taken with a large grain of salt and be treated as near-absolute ceilings rather than practical goals. Nevertheless, SpaceX revealed plans for its two Florida launch sites (LC-40 and LC-39A) to ultimately support as many as 70 annual launches of Falcon 9 and Heavy by 2024, less than five years from now.

Simply put, even the most dogmatic fan would have to balk at least a little bit at the numbers SpaceX suggested in its Starship EA draft. More specifically, SpaceX apparently has plans to support as many as 20 annual Falcon 9/Heavy launches from Pad 39A and an incredible 50 annual Falcon 9 launches from LC-40 as early as 2024.

“SpaceX plans to increase the Falcon launch frequency to 20 launches per year from LC-39A and up to 50 launches per year from LC-40 by the year 2024. However, as Starship/Super Heavy launches gradually increase to 24 launches per year, the number of launches of the Falcon would decrease.

–SpaceX, Starship Environmental Assessment Draft, August 2019

SpaceX’s massive Launch Complex 39A is pictured here. (USAF – Hope Geiger, February 2019)
Falcon 9 B1047 lifts off from SpaceX’s LC-40 pad on August 6th, 2019. (SpaceX)

Two obvious options

Given just how significant of an increase a 70-launch annual cadence would be for SpaceX relative to their current record of 21 launches, it’s entirely possible that these numbers are really just a pipe dream included in a pending environmental assessment to hedge bets just in case a similar launch frequency is achieved over the next five years.

On the other hand, it’s possible that SpaceX – just now coming into the ability to reliably achieve a much higher cadence – has coincidentally become payload-constrained at almost the same time, meaning that the company’s customers’ payloads just aren’t ready for launch. This would explain, for example, why SpaceX has only launched 10 times this year when the company had already completed 15 launches by August 2018.

SpaceX completed its 10th launch of 2019 on August 6th, placing the AMOS-17 communications satellite into a healthy orbit. (SpaceX)

Additionally, it can be almost unequivocally assumed that all but 15-20 of those supposed 70 annual launches would come from SpaceX’s own internal demand for Starlink launch capacity. Assuming no improvements between now and 2024, 50 Falcon 9 launches could place as many as 3000 Starlink satellites in orbit in a single year, equivalent to more than 25% of the entire proposed ~11,800-satellite constellation.

Barring regulatory changes to US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and International Telecommunication Union (ITU) requirements, SpaceX must launch at least half of all Starlink satellites (~5900) by November 2024 and finish launching the remaining ~5900 by November 2027. If SpaceX fails to reach those deployment milestones, the company runs the risk of losing Starlink’s domestic and international licenses to operate.

SpaceX successfully launched an unprecedented set of 60 prototype Starlink satellites (internally nicknamed “v0.9”) in May 2019. (SpaceX)

This would help to explain why SpaceX says that it’s planning to reach a maximum cadence of 70 annual launches “by 2024”, given that 2024 will be a pivotal year in the eyes of regulations currently in effect for Starlink.

Starship confusion

As noted in the quote above, SpaceX plans to eventually phase out Falcon 9 and Heavy launches as the company’s next-generation Starship and Super Heavy launch vehicle gradually comes online, proves itself reliable, and begins operational launch activities. According to SpaceX, given just how much mass Starship can nominally launch relative to both Falcon 9 and Heavy, far fewer launches will be needed to accomplish the tasks that would otherwise require several times more launches of SpaceX’s smaller vehicles.

SpaceX’s initial Environmental Assessment for Starship launches from Pad 39A caps the rocket’s maximum cadence at 24 annual launches. Oddly, this directly contradicts the goals set for Starship (formerly BFR) by CEO Elon Musk and SpaceX more generally. By building a launch vehicle that is fully and rapidly reusable, the goal has long been to deliver cheap, aircraft-like access to orbit at a completely unprecedented scale.

Starship was never meant to lower SpaceX’s annual launch cadence. (SpaceX)

This would technically mean that SpaceX could actually dramatically increase its launch cadence without increasing costs, allowing the company to perform currently nonsensical missions where Starship might launch payloads weighing just 5-10% of its total payload capacity. Airline operations routinely do things of a similar nature, sometimes flying just a fraction of their maximum passenger load to destinations for a variety of reasons.

Additionally, SpaceX has consistently indicated that Starship will rely heavily on orbital refueling to accomplish its ultimate deep space ambitions. Previous presentations from Elon Musk have shown that launches to the Mars or Moon with significant payload would require no fewer than five separate tanker launches and orbital refuelings, all of which would classify as one of the 24 annual launches SpaceX has described in its August 2019 EA draft. On their own, launching two Starships to Mars with 100 tons of payload each would require no fewer than 10-12 launches.

A 2017 overview of a Starship (then BFS) mission to Mars. (SpaceX)

Ultimately, it’s unwise to draw any substantial conclusions from an Environmental Assessment like the one the above information has been taken from. This 39A-specific EA also ignores the possibility of a similar launch facility being developed in Boca Chica, Texas, which SpaceX explicitly acknowledges.

This particular draft is also the first Starship-related EA ever filed by SpaceX, and the company may thus be treating it more as a bare minimum with the intention of eventually pursuing far more ambitious launch rates once Starship has been established.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla adjusts Robotaxi safety monitor strategy in Austin with new service area

The positioning of the driver, as well as the driver’s hands being closer to the steering wheel, is more similar to what Tesla is doing in the Bay Area Robotaxi program than it is to what it has done in Austin.

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Credit: @AdanGuajardo/X

Tesla has adjusted its Robotaxi safety monitor strategy in Austin after it expanded its service area in the city last week for the third time.

Tesla has been operating its Robotaxi platform in Austin since June 22. The vehicles have been operated without a driver, but Tesla has placed safety monitors in the passenger’s seat as a precaution.

The safety monitors are responsible for performing any necessary interventions and maintaining a safe and comfortable cabin for riders as they experience Tesla’s first venture into the driverless ride-sharing space.

Last week, Tesla expanded its service area in Austin for the third time, expanding it from about 90 square miles to 170 square miles. The expansion included new territory, including the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, Tesla’s Gigafactory Texas, and several freeways.

Tesla Robotaxi geofence expansion enters Plaid Mode and includes a surprise

The freeway is an area that is uncharted territory for the Tesla Robotaxi program, and this fact alone encouraged Tesla to switch up its safety monitor positioning for the time being.

For now, they will be riding in the driver’s seat when routes require freeway travel:

The positioning of the driver, as well as the driver’s hands being closer to the steering wheel, is more similar to what Tesla is doing in the Bay Area Robotaxi program than it is to what it has done in Austin.

This is sure to draw criticism from skeptics, but it is simply a step to keep things controlled and safe while the first Robotaxi drives take passengers on the highway with this version of the Full Self-Driving software.

This FSD version differs from the one that customers have in their own vehicles, but CEO Elon Musk has indicated something big is coming soon. FSD v14 is coming to vehicles in the near future, and Musk has said its performance is pretty incredible.

Tesla’s Elon Musk shares optimistic teaser about FSD V14: “Feels sentient”

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Tesla has best month ever in Turkey with drastic spike in sales

Tesla managed to sell 8,730 Model Y vehicles in Turkey, outpacing almost every competitor by a substantial margin. Only one brand sold better than Tesla in August in Turkey, and it was Renault.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla had its best monthly performance ever in Turkey in August, thanks to a drastic spike in sales.

Tesla saw an 86 percent bump in sales of the new Model Y in Turkey in August compared to July, dominating the market.

The performance was one of Tesla’s best in the market, and the company’s sales for the month accounted for half of all EV sales in Turkey for August, as it dominated and led BYD, which was the second-best-selling brand with just 1,639 units sold.

Tesla managed to sell 8,730 Model Y vehicles in Turkey, outpacing almost every competitor by a substantial margin. Only one brand sold better than Tesla in August in Turkey, and it was Renault.

Electric vehicles are, in some ways, more desirable than their gas counterparts in Turkey for several reasons. Most of the reasoning is financial.

First, EVs are subject to a lower Special Consumption Tax in Turkey. EVs can range from 25 percent to up to 170 percent, but this is less than the 70 to 220 percent rate that gas-powered vehicles can face. The tax is dependent on engine size.

Elon Musk courted to build a Tesla factory in Turkey

Additionally, EVs are exempt from the annual Motor Vehicle Tax for the first ten years, providing consumers with a long-term ownership advantage. There are also credits that can amount to $30,000 in breaks, which makes them more accessible and brings down the cost of ownership.

Let’s not forget the other advantages that are felt regardless of country: cheaper fuel costs, reduced maintenance, and improved performance.

The base Model Y is the only configuration available in Turkey currently.

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Tesla is upgrading airbag safety through a crazy software update

“This upgrade builds upon your vehicle’s superior crash protection by now using Tesla Vision to help offer some of the most cutting-edge airbag performance in the event of a frontal crash.”

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla is upgrading airbag safety through a crazy software update, which will utilize the company’s vision-first approach to enable better protection in the event of an accident.

Over the years, Tesla has gained an incredible reputation for prioritizing safety in its vehicles, with crash test ratings at the forefront of its engineers’ minds.

This has led to Tesla gaining numerous five-star safety ratings and awards related to safety. It is not just a statistical thing, either. In the real world, we’ve seen Teslas demonstrate some impressive examples of crash safety.

Everything from that glass roof not caving in when a tree falls on it to a Model Y surviving a drive off a cliff has been recorded.

However, Tesla is always looking to improve safety, and unlike most companies, it does not need a physical hardware update to do so. It can enhance features such as crash response and airbag performance through Over-the-Air software updates, which download automatically to the vehicle.

In Tesla’s 2025.32 Software Update, the company is rolling out a Frontal Airbag System Enhancement, which aims to use Tesla Vision, the company’s camera-based approach to self-driving, to keep occupants safe.

The release notes state (via NotaTeslaApp):

“This upgrade builds upon your vehicle’s superior crash protection by now using Tesla Vision to help offer some of the most cutting-edge airbag performance in the event of a frontal crash. Building on top of regulatory and industry crash testing, this release enables front airbags to begin to inflate and restrain occupants earlier, in a way that only Tesla’s integrated systems are capable of doing, making your car safer over time.”

The use of cameras to predict a better time to restrain occupants with seatbelts and inflate airbags prior to a collision is a fantastic way to prevent injuries and limit harm done to those in the vehicle.

The feature is currently limited to the Model Y.

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