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SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Heavy manifest grows lopsided as launches align for Q4

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7 years ago

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For a variety of reasons both clear or otherwise, a significant number of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches initially scheduled near the beginning or middle of the second half of 2018 are all slipping right into October, November, and December.

While communications satellite Telstar 18V’s two-week slip to NET September 8 and SAOCOM-1A’s own several-week tumble to October 7th appear to have their own respective and discernible reasons, namely some sort of range or payload issue (Telstar) and difficulties with the Falcon 9 rocket (SAOCOM), it’s much harder to know why multiple other payloads have slipped into late 2018.

Although the multiple slips and slides of several payloads and much of SpaceX’s H2 2018 launch manifest may be hard to parse alongside the year’s milestone first half, at least two reliable launch manifest sources (SpaceflightNow and one other) more or less independently corroborate the apparent realignment. Explanations, however, are far harder to find – to be expected in the business of space launch. Still, multiple launch delays can be traced to either payload or rocket issues.

Payload-side delays aplenty but rocket-slips, too

Iridium CEO Matt Desch, for example, noted that his company’s Iridium NEXT-8 launch of the constellation’s final 10 satellites is slipping from its original launch date target because of delays preparing the satellites for launch, rather than any issue with SpaceX rocket availability. While not official, the Falcon 9 launch of communications satellite Es’hail-2 has also rapidly jumped from the end of August or early September into Q4 2018 (likely NET October or November), hinting heavily at payload processing delays or technical issues with the complex satellite, as multi-month rocket-side delays would likely preclude interim September and October launches.

Meanwhile, at least two of those prospective Q4 2018 SpaceX launches happen to be rideshare-dedicated, meaning that the payload consists of dozens of smaller satellites manifested and organized by a middleman company or agency. These two launches are Spaceflight’s SSO-A launch (~70 satellites) – currently NET November 2018 – and the US Air Force-led STP-2 mission, designed primarily to help SpaceX certify Falcon Heavy for Air Force launches while also placing roughly two dozen smaller satellites into orbit. STP-2 was delayed for multiple years as SpaceX gradually paced towards Falcon Heavy’s first real launch debut (February 2018), but launch delays (currently NET November 30 2018, probably 2019) will likely be caused by some combination of rocket, payload, and pad delays as SpaceX readies for what is essentially the second debut of much different Falcon Heavy.

While likely less a payload-side delay than a mountain-of-tedious-paperwork-and-bureaucracy delay, SpaceX’s NET November 2018 inaugural (uncrewed) demonstration launch of Crew Dragon, NASA scheduling documents published alongside an August 27 Advisory Council presentation suggest that the spacecraft will be ready for launch as early as September, whereas independent sources and visual observations have confirmed that the new Falcon 9 Block 5 booster (B1051) is either near the end or fully done with its McGregor, Texas acceptance testing. One certainly cannot blame SpaceX or NASA for caution at this stage, but the consequently uncertain launch debut of Crew Dragon almost certainly precludes any Falcon Heavy launches from Pad 39A in the interim, including STP-2’s theoretical NET November 30 launch date, which is literally inside Crew Dragon’s “November 2018” launch target.

 

On the other hand, several recent delays of SpaceX’s imminent (-ish) launch of Argentinian Earth observation satellite SAOCOM-1A have been suggested by several employees of the country’s CONAE space agency to be rocket-related, as they understand that the satellite itself is effectively ready to head to orbit at any time. It has yet to be officially confirmed, but it’s understood that Falcon 9 B1048 – previously flown on the launch of Iridium-7 – is being refurbished for SAOCOM-1A, potentially contributing to launch delays as SpaceX cautiously works through the inaugural reuses of some of its very first serial Falcon 9 Block 5 boosters.

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Time will soon tell, as launching the roughly 8 to 10 launches tentatively remaining on SpaceX’s 2018 manifest will require extensive reuse of Block 5 boosters if multiple slips into 2019 are to be prevented. Regardless, best of luck to SpaceX’s technicians and engineers as they beat back rocket demons, grapple with uncooperative satellite payloads, and navigate the winding paths of Department of Defense and NASA rocket launch certifications.

For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla makes major production announcement at Giga Shanghai

On Monday, Tesla China Vice President Grace Tao announced a change at Giga Shanghai.

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5 minutes ago

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October 13, 2025

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Credit: Wu Wa/YouTube

Tesla has made a major production announcement at its Chinese production facility, Giga Shanghai. The change of plans comes right after the company announced its strongest quarter in terms of deliveries in its history.

On Monday, Tesla China Vice President Grace Tao announced that the production facility would begin ramping up manufacturing in preparation for an even stronger Q4.

Tao said on the Chinese social media platform Weibo:

“The Shanghai Gigafactory has recently begun its fourth-quarter production ramp-up! In the third quarter of 2025, Tesla delivered a total of 497,000 new vehicles worldwide, setting a new quarterly delivery record. As the fourth quarter begins, our colleagues at the Shanghai factory are working hard to expand production and fully charge their vehicles, so that car owners in China and Asia-Pacific can receive their vehicles as soon as possible.”

China is an extremely robust market for electric vehicles, and Tesla routinely delivers strong numbers in the sector.

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However, Giga Shanghai is responsible for much more than just China, as it is a major export hub for other markets, including Asian-Pacific countries like New Zealand and Australia, among others.

Tesla delivered 497,099 vehicles in Q3, its strongest quarter ever from a delivery standpoint. About half of those vehicles came from Shanghai, as estimates point to roughly 242,000 of those cars coming from the Chinese factory.

Tesla China comeback: Retail sales hit second-highest month of 2025

Ramping up production at Giga Shanghai signals some internal belief that there is a lot of strength in terms of demand for Tesla vehicles. Tesla has a strong track record of fulfilling the need for its vehicles at the Shanghai factory, as it is widely regarded for building some of the best-quality Tesla vehicles.

However, the company launched a new configuration of the Model Y, called the Model Y L, in China. It is only available from Giga Shanghai and features a third row of seating and additional length in the wheelbase.

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This additional space was widely sought out by customers, and Tesla listened. It could be a key to the company continuing its strength in the Chinese market, especially as there are many well-equipped competitors in the country.

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Tesla China comeback: Retail sales hit second-highest month of 2025

Tesla’s September numbers are just below the 74,127 units that were sold domestically in March.

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4 hours ago

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October 13, 2025

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla’s retail sales in China climbed to 71,525 vehicles in September, the company’s second-highest monthly total this year, as per data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). 

The result reflects a steady rebound, narrowing Tesla’s year-on-year sales decline to just 0.93%, while showing a 25% jump from August’s weaker numbers. Tesla China’s September numbers are just below the 74,127 units that were sold domestically in March.

Tesla China’s September

Despite the uptick, Tesla China’s retail sales have now logged seven months of year-on-year declines this 2025, managing growth only in March and June, though a good portion of these lost sales was due to the changeover to the new Model Y. The Shanghai Gigafactory, which produces both the Model 3 and Model Y, continues to serve as a dual-purpose hub for domestic and export markets.

In September, Tesla exported 19,287 vehicles from its Shanghai facility, up 19.6% year-on-year but down 25.9% from August, as noted in a CNEV Post report. This is in line with Tesla China’s strategy of prioritizing exports early in each quarter. Including exports, Tesla China’s total wholesale volume reached 90,812 units in September, up 2.82% year-on-year and 9.16% month-on-month.

Model Y still leads

The Tesla Model Y still led the electric vehicle maker’s sales in China with 59,907 units sold wholesale during the month, rising 17.1% from last year, while Model 3 reached 30,905 units, dipping 16.8% year-on-year but up 27% from August. Tesla’s overall market share in China’s NEV segment rose to 5.52%, and its BEV share climbed to 8.66%, modest gains hinting at the company’s resilience in a fiercely competitive market.

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Across Q3, Tesla sold 169,294 vehicles in China, down 6.9% year-on-year, marking its second consecutive quarterly decline but a strong 31.4% recovery versus Q2. Year-to-date, Tesla’s retail total stands at 432,704 units, down 5.97% compared to last year.

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Elon Musk teases ‘Banish’ feature to pair perfectly with Summon

Tesla has long promised the possibility of completely hands-off parking: arrive, drop off at the entrance, the car parks itself, and the car retrieves you at the end of your visit.

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4 hours ago

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October 13, 2025

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Credit: Tesla China

Elon Musk has once again teased the “Banish” feature that could come to Tesla vehicles in the near future. It would be a perfect pairing to the popular Assisted Smart Summon (ASS), which the company launched earlier this year.

Banish has been something Tesla has teased for years. The company has promised the possibility of completely hands-off parking: arrive, drop off at the entrance, the car parks itself, and the car retrieves you at the end of your visit.

Ultimately, even though it is technically a driverless feature, Tesla has not refined its parking portion of the Full Self-Driving (Supervised) suite enough to release Banish to the public.

Tesla recently started performing specified parking tasks at the driver’s discretion. In the FSD (Supervised) v14.1 release, Tesla has added the ability to pick your parking scenario. Drivers can choose a Charger, Parking Lot, Curbside, Street, Driveway, or Parking Garage.

To achieve Banish, Tesla would have to gather enough data with these scenarios to then gain the capability to park after dropping vehicle occupants off.

However, CEO Elon Musk recently hyped Banish to the point of stating Teslas will be capable of it “in the near future.”

His remark came in response to a video where FSD v14.1 drove around a Costco parking lot for twenty minutes looking for a spot:

Summon is a feature that has given Tesla its challenges, but the release of Assisted Smart Summon (ASS) has improved some of its capabilities.

I tested it after receiving v14.1, and it did a great job of taking the correct route and driving safely to my location:

There will likely be some time between now and when Tesla is able to release Banish. As previously noted, Tesla will need to collect enough data from real-world scenarios and obtain a proven track record of being able to handle lots and parking in a variety of environments while supervised.

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