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SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Heavy manifest grows lopsided as launches align for Q4

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For a variety of reasons both clear or otherwise, a significant number of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches initially scheduled near the beginning or middle of the second half of 2018 are all slipping right into October, November, and December.

While communications satellite Telstar 18V’s two-week slip to NET September 8 and SAOCOM-1A’s own several-week tumble to October 7th appear to have their own respective and discernible reasons, namely some sort of range or payload issue (Telstar) and difficulties with the Falcon 9 rocket (SAOCOM), it’s much harder to know why multiple other payloads have slipped into late 2018.

Although the multiple slips and slides of several payloads and much of SpaceX’s H2 2018 launch manifest may be hard to parse alongside the year’s milestone first half, at least two reliable launch manifest sources (SpaceflightNow and one other) more or less independently corroborate the apparent realignment. Explanations, however, are far harder to find – to be expected in the business of space launch. Still, multiple launch delays can be traced to either payload or rocket issues.

Payload-side delays aplenty but rocket-slips, too

Iridium CEO Matt Desch, for example, noted that his company’s Iridium NEXT-8 launch of the constellation’s final 10 satellites is slipping from its original launch date target because of delays preparing the satellites for launch, rather than any issue with SpaceX rocket availability. While not official, the Falcon 9 launch of communications satellite Es’hail-2 has also rapidly jumped from the end of August or early September into Q4 2018 (likely NET October or November), hinting heavily at payload processing delays or technical issues with the complex satellite, as multi-month rocket-side delays would likely preclude interim September and October launches.

Meanwhile, at least two of those prospective Q4 2018 SpaceX launches happen to be rideshare-dedicated, meaning that the payload consists of dozens of smaller satellites manifested and organized by a middleman company or agency. These two launches are Spaceflight’s SSO-A launch (~70 satellites) – currently NET November 2018 – and the US Air Force-led STP-2 mission, designed primarily to help SpaceX certify Falcon Heavy for Air Force launches while also placing roughly two dozen smaller satellites into orbit. STP-2 was delayed for multiple years as SpaceX gradually paced towards Falcon Heavy’s first real launch debut (February 2018), but launch delays (currently NET November 30 2018, probably 2019) will likely be caused by some combination of rocket, payload, and pad delays as SpaceX readies for what is essentially the second debut of much different Falcon Heavy.

While likely less a payload-side delay than a mountain-of-tedious-paperwork-and-bureaucracy delay, SpaceX’s NET November 2018 inaugural (uncrewed) demonstration launch of Crew Dragon, NASA scheduling documents published alongside an August 27 Advisory Council presentation suggest that the spacecraft will be ready for launch as early as September, whereas independent sources and visual observations have confirmed that the new Falcon 9 Block 5 booster (B1051) is either near the end or fully done with its McGregor, Texas acceptance testing. One certainly cannot blame SpaceX or NASA for caution at this stage, but the consequently uncertain launch debut of Crew Dragon almost certainly precludes any Falcon Heavy launches from Pad 39A in the interim, including STP-2’s theoretical NET November 30 launch date, which is literally inside Crew Dragon’s “November 2018” launch target.

 

On the other hand, several recent delays of SpaceX’s imminent (-ish) launch of Argentinian Earth observation satellite SAOCOM-1A have been suggested by several employees of the country’s CONAE space agency to be rocket-related, as they understand that the satellite itself is effectively ready to head to orbit at any time. It has yet to be officially confirmed, but it’s understood that Falcon 9 B1048 – previously flown on the launch of Iridium-7 – is being refurbished for SAOCOM-1A, potentially contributing to launch delays as SpaceX cautiously works through the inaugural reuses of some of its very first serial Falcon 9 Block 5 boosters.

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Time will soon tell, as launching the roughly 8 to 10 launches tentatively remaining on SpaceX’s 2018 manifest will require extensive reuse of Block 5 boosters if multiple slips into 2019 are to be prevented. Regardless, best of luck to SpaceX’s technicians and engineers as they beat back rocket demons, grapple with uncooperative satellite payloads, and navigate the winding paths of Department of Defense and NASA rocket launch certifications.


For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2025 earnings call: What investors want to know

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is set to report its second-quarter 2025 financial results on Wednesday, July 23, after markets close. With this in mind, Tesla investors have aggregated their top questions for the company at its upcoming Q&A session.

The upcoming earnings report follows a mixed delivery quarter. Tesla produced over 410,000 vehicles and delivered more than 384,000 units globally. In the energy segment, Tesla deployed 9.6 GWh of storage products, continuing momentum for its Megapack business. Tesla’s vehicle sales are currently down year-over-year, though a good part of this was due to the Model Y changeover in the first quarter.

Following are Tesla investors’ top questions for management, as aggregated in Say.

  1. Can you give us some insight (into) how robotaxis have been performing so far and what rate you expect to expand in terms of vehicles, geofence, cities, and supervisors?
  2. What are the key technical and regulatory hurdles still remaining for unsupervised FSD to be available for personal use? Timeline?
  3. What specific factory tasks is Optimus currently performing, and what is the expected timeline for scaling production to enable external sales? How does Tesla envision Optimus contributing to revenue in the next 2–3 years?
  4. Can you provide an update on the development and production timeline for Tesla’s more affordable models? How will these models balance cost reduction with profitability, and what impact do you expect on demand in the current economic climate?
  5. When do you anticipate customer vehicles to receive unsupervised FSD?
  6. Are there any news for HW3 users getting retrofits or upgrades? Will they get HW4 or some future version of HW5?
  7. Have any meaningful Optimus milestones changed for this year or next, and will thousands of Optimus be performing tasks in Tesla factories by year-end?
  8. Will there be a new AI day to explain the advancements the Autopilot, Optimus, and Dojo/chip teams have made over the past several years? We still do not know much about HW4.
  9. Cybertruck ramp is now a year in, but sales have lagged other models. How are you thinking through boosting sales of such an incredible product?
  10. When will there be a new CEO compensation package presented and considered for the next stage of the company’s growth?

Tesla will release its Q2 update letter on its Investor Relations website after markets close on Wednesday. A live Q&A webcast with management will then follow at 4:30 p.m. CT (5:30 p.m. ET) to discuss the company’s performance and outlook.

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Tesla Model Y becomes dual champ in China’s vehicle sales rankings

The Model Y’s recent accomplishments suggest that Tesla really has created something special with the all-electric crossover.

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

The Tesla Model Y was recently deemed a double champion in China, with the all-electric crossover topping two notable sales charts in the country’s automotive sector. 

The Model Y’s recent accomplishments suggest that Tesla really has created something special with the all-electric crossover, as it has continued to outsell even vehicles that are newer and more affordable. 

Tesla China’s announcement

In a post on Weibo, Tesla China VP Grace Tao highlighted that the Model Y topped China’s sales of SUVs, as well as vehicles that are priced in the 200,000-400,000 yuan range. This is quite remarkable, as the Model Y is one of the more costly entries in both lists. She also invited everyone to try out the vehicle for themselves. “You will know the champion strength after a try,” the Tesla VP wrote.

For the first half of the year, the Tesla Model Y sold 171,491 units domestically in China. This number was enough to make it the country’s best-selling SUV and vehicle priced in the 200,000-400,000 yuan range, but it could still easily be higher in the second half of 2025.

This was because Tesla initiated a changeover in Gigafactory Shanghai to shift the facility’s Model Y line to the vehicle’s new iteration. Had Tesla sold the Model Y in full force during the first half of 2025 in China, the vehicle’s domestic sales figures would have been even more impressive.

Model Y L coming

Tesla China’s Model Y sales could see a notable boost in the second half of the year due to the addition of the Model Y L, an extended wheelbase version of the all-electric crossover. Tesla is yet to announce the details for the Model Y L, though the vehicle was listed in the MIIT regulatory catalog as a six-seater. This is game-changing, as the Model Y’s previous seven-seat configurations have caught criticism for being far too cramped and unusable for adults.

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With the six-seat Model Y in the company’s lineup, Tesla would be able to compete with popular vehicles from rivals like BYD, which have made it a point to release spacious three-row vehicles that are designed to carry the whole family. Provided that the Model Y L is priced correctly, it could very well raise Tesla’s vehicle sales this year.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla still poised to earn $3B in ZEV credits this year: Piper Sandler

Piper Sandler analyst Alex Potter maintained his $400 per share price target on TSLA stock.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is still poised to earn about $3 billion in zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) credits this year despite growing concerns over policy shifts under United States President Donald Trump. This is, at least, according to Piper Sandler analyst Alex Potter, who maintained his $400 per share price target and “Overweight” rating on TSLA stock.

Tesla’s ZEV credit revenue

In a recent investor note, Potter acknowledged that Trump’s efforts to undo EV-related incentives could impact Tesla’s ZEV credit income. The analyst noted that these effects would likely not be too drastic, however, even if ZEV credits provide Tesla’s finances with a substantial boost. Last year, Tesla earned about $3.5 billion from regulatory credits, equal to nearly 100% of the company’s FY24 free cash flow, as noted in a Benzinga report. 

Potter estimated that the impact of potential regulatory reversals from the Trump administration will likely not be immediate. “Tesla will still book around $3B in credits this year, followed by $2.3B in 2026,” the Piper Sandler analyst wrote.

Considering his reiterated $400 price target for Tesla stock, Potter seems to be expecting an upside of over 20% for the electric vehicle maker. It should be noted, however, that Tesla is a volatile stock by nature, so huge swings in stock price may happen even without material developments from the company.

Robotaxi developments

The Piper Sandler analyst also highlighted the progress of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) program and Robotaxi developments as potential offsets to regulatory headwinds. Potter pointed to expanding operations in Austin and Tesla’s push to launch Robotaxi services in Phoenix and the Bay Area, pending regulatory approval. 

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“In our view, these favorable FSD-related developments are likely to overshadow any/all negative commentary arising from lower 2025/2026 estimates,” the analyst wrote.

In addition to rescinding ZEV programs, the Trump administration has proposed ending the $7,500 federal EV credit by September 2025 and rolling back Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards.

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