News
SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Heavy manifest grows lopsided as launches align for Q4
For a variety of reasons both clear or otherwise, a significant number of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches initially scheduled near the beginning or middle of the second half of 2018 are all slipping right into October, November, and December.
While communications satellite Telstar 18V’s two-week slip to NET September 8 and SAOCOM-1A’s own several-week tumble to October 7th appear to have their own respective and discernible reasons, namely some sort of range or payload issue (Telstar) and difficulties with the Falcon 9 rocket (SAOCOM), it’s much harder to know why multiple other payloads have slipped into late 2018.
Although the multiple slips and slides of several payloads and much of SpaceX’s H2 2018 launch manifest may be hard to parse alongside the year’s milestone first half, at least two reliable launch manifest sources (SpaceflightNow and one other) more or less independently corroborate the apparent realignment. Explanations, however, are far harder to find – to be expected in the business of space launch. Still, multiple launch delays can be traced to either payload or rocket issues.
- SpaceX technicians wrench on Merlin 1D and Merlin Vacuum engines. Raptor was apparently dramatically larger in person. (SpaceX)
- SpaceX technicians wrench on Merlin 1D and Merlin Vacuum engines. (SpaceX)
- SpaceX technicians wrench on Merlin 1D and Merlin Vacuum engines. (SpaceX)
Payload-side delays aplenty but rocket-slips, too
Iridium CEO Matt Desch, for example, noted that his company’s Iridium NEXT-8 launch of the constellation’s final 10 satellites is slipping from its original launch date target because of delays preparing the satellites for launch, rather than any issue with SpaceX rocket availability. While not official, the Falcon 9 launch of communications satellite Es’hail-2 has also rapidly jumped from the end of August or early September into Q4 2018 (likely NET October or November), hinting heavily at payload processing delays or technical issues with the complex satellite, as multi-month rocket-side delays would likely preclude interim September and October launches.
Still trying to nail the date down (satellite completion is gating, not rocket availability), but definitely won't be in September.
— Matt Desch (@IridiumBoss) August 13, 2018
Meanwhile, at least two of those prospective Q4 2018 SpaceX launches happen to be rideshare-dedicated, meaning that the payload consists of dozens of smaller satellites manifested and organized by a middleman company or agency. These two launches are Spaceflight’s SSO-A launch (~70 satellites) – currently NET November 2018 – and the US Air Force-led STP-2 mission, designed primarily to help SpaceX certify Falcon Heavy for Air Force launches while also placing roughly two dozen smaller satellites into orbit. STP-2 was delayed for multiple years as SpaceX gradually paced towards Falcon Heavy’s first real launch debut (February 2018), but launch delays (currently NET November 30 2018, probably 2019) will likely be caused by some combination of rocket, payload, and pad delays as SpaceX readies for what is essentially the second debut of much different Falcon Heavy.
While likely less a payload-side delay than a mountain-of-tedious-paperwork-and-bureaucracy delay, SpaceX’s NET November 2018 inaugural (uncrewed) demonstration launch of Crew Dragon, NASA scheduling documents published alongside an August 27 Advisory Council presentation suggest that the spacecraft will be ready for launch as early as September, whereas independent sources and visual observations have confirmed that the new Falcon 9 Block 5 booster (B1051) is either near the end or fully done with its McGregor, Texas acceptance testing. One certainly cannot blame SpaceX or NASA for caution at this stage, but the consequently uncertain launch debut of Crew Dragon almost certainly precludes any Falcon Heavy launches from Pad 39A in the interim, including STP-2’s theoretical NET November 30 launch date, which is literally inside Crew Dragon’s “November 2018” launch target.
- Falcon Heavy explodes off of Pad 39A, February 2018. (SpaceX)
- Falcon Heavy’s side boosters seconds away from near-simultaneous landings at Landing Zones 1 and 2. (SpaceX)
- SpaceX technicians wrench on Merlin 1D and Merlin Vacuum engines. Raptor was apparently dramatically larger in person. (SpaceX)
- It’s currently unclear whether B1046 or B1048 will become the first SpaceX rocket to fly three times. (Tom Cross)
- Falcon 9 B1048 stands proud after its West Coast launch debut, August 2nd. (Pauline Acalin)
On the other hand, several recent delays of SpaceX’s imminent (-ish) launch of Argentinian Earth observation satellite SAOCOM-1A have been suggested by several employees of the country’s CONAE space agency to be rocket-related, as they understand that the satellite itself is effectively ready to head to orbit at any time. It has yet to be officially confirmed, but it’s understood that Falcon 9 B1048 – previously flown on the launch of Iridium-7 – is being refurbished for SAOCOM-1A, potentially contributing to launch delays as SpaceX cautiously works through the inaugural reuses of some of its very first serial Falcon 9 Block 5 boosters.
Time will soon tell, as launching the roughly 8 to 10 launches tentatively remaining on SpaceX’s 2018 manifest will require extensive reuse of Block 5 boosters if multiple slips into 2019 are to be prevented. Regardless, best of luck to SpaceX’s technicians and engineers as they beat back rocket demons, grapple with uncooperative satellite payloads, and navigate the winding paths of Department of Defense and NASA rocket launch certifications.
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News
Starlink gets its latest airline adoptee for stable and reliable internet access
The company said it plans to “rapidly integrate Starlink into its fleet,” and that the first Starlink-equipped aircraft will enter service this Summer.
SpaceX’s Starlink, the satellite internet program launched by Elon Musk’s company, has gotten its latest airline adoptee, offering stable and reliable internet to passengers.
Southwest Airlines announced on Wednesday that it would enable Starlink on its aircraft, a new strategy that will expand to more than 300 planes by the end of the year.
The company said it plans to “rapidly integrate Starlink into its fleet,” and that the first Starlink-equipped aircraft will enter service this Summer.
Tony Roach, Executive Vice President, Chief Customer and Brand Officer for the airline, said:
“Free WiFi has been a huge hit with our Rapid Rewards Members, and we know our Customers expect seamless connectivity across all their devices when they travel. Starlink delivers that at-home experience in the air, giving Customers the ability to stream their favorite shows from any platform, watch live sports, download music, play games, work, and connect with loved ones from takeoff to landing.”
Southwest also said that this is just one of the latest upgrades it is making to provide a more well-rounded experience to its aircraft. In addition to Starlink, it is updating cabin designs, offering more legroom, and installing in-seat power to all passengers.
Southwest became one of several airlines to cross over to Starlink, as reviews for the internet provider have raved about reliability and speed. Over the past year, Hawaiian Airlines, United Airlines, Alaska Airlines, airBaltic, Air France, JSX, Emirates, British Airways, and others have all decided to install Starlink on their planes.
This has been a major move away from unpredictable and commonly unreliable WiFi offerings on planes. Starlink has been more reliable and has provided more stable connections for those using their travel time for leisure or business.
Jason Fritch, VP of Starlink Enterprise Sales at SpaceX, said:
“We’re thrilled to deliver a connectivity experience to Southwest Airlines and its Customers that really is similar, if not better, than what you can experience in your own home. Starlink is the future of connected travel, making every journey faster, smoother, and infinitely more enjoyable.”
Starlink recently crossed a massive milestone of over 10 million subscribers.
Elon Musk
Tesla nears closure of Full Self-Driving purchasing option
The move to bring FSD to this type of purchasing program comes after CEO Elon Musk noted in January that Tesla would move away from the outright purchase option.
Tesla is nearing the closure of its Full Self-Driving outright purchasing option, which will be removed on February 14, meaning Saturday will be the last time it can be bought as a non-subscription.
Tesla is aiming to move its Full Self-Driving suite to a subscription-only platform, a move that will enable people to only pay monthly for the semi-autonomous driving functionality.
The move to bring FSD to this type of purchasing program comes after CEO Elon Musk noted in January that Tesla would move away from the outright purchase option.
It is currently priced at $8,000 for the outright option to use Full Self-Driving, a substantial decrease compared to the $15,000 it was priced at one time. For the monthly subscription, it is just $99 per month, but that price will change, likely increasing as things get more advanced.
Tesla is overhauling its Full Self-Driving subscription for easier access
We say it will likely increase because there is no indication of how Tesla will price FSD. There has been some speculation that Tesla could utilize a tiered system to price FSD, which would potentially allow owners to pick and choose a set of features that would be most ideal for them.
This would potentially introduce an even more affordable option for FSD use, but this is unconfirmed. The reason many say this could be an option for Tesla is the fact that if the price goes up further, the take rate, which is currently around 12 percent at its most recent estimate, could be lower.
Musk needs 10 million active Full Self-Driving subscriptions to unlock one of the tranches of his newest compensation package.
The move to a subscription-only platform has its positives and negatives, and owners have been more than vocal about these since Musk confirmed the move.
Positives
- Lower barrier to entry and higher potential adoption
- Financially better for many users
- Easier transfers and brand loyalty
- Predictable recurring revenue for Tesla
- Access to the latest features
Negatives
- Higher long-term cost for loyal/long-term owners
- No true “ownership” or permanence
- Risk of future price hikes or even deactivation
- Perceived as of less value
- Impact on resale and used market
Overall, there is a split among the Tesla community in terms of what they see as the “right” way to handle this. Tesla is likely to shed more details on what its plans for the subscription-only platform will be, including pricing, in the coming weeks.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk’s Boring Company selected for Universal Orlando tunnel project
The underground transport tunnel is designed to address the persistent gridlock surrounding International Drive.
Elon Musk’s The Boring Company has been selected for a proposed underground transit system connecting Universal Orlando Resort and the newly opened Universal Epic Universe.
The underground transport tunnel is designed to address the persistent gridlock surrounding International Drive.
As noted in a blooloop report, Universal’s Shingle Creek Transit and Utility Community Development District approved a resolution showing its intent to designate The Boring Company as the contractor for the project.
The agreement covers the full scope of the project, from the tunnel’s design, construction, and maintenance. The project has also been described in public documents as a “point-to-point innovative transportation” initiative with a 25-year agreement.
The proposed Boring Company tunnels would directly link Universal’s existing parks with Epic Universe, which sits roughly three miles away from Universal Orlando Resort. Today, buses are the only direct connection between the two destinations.
Project requirements were quite stringent. Bidders were required to demonstrate at least $75 million in bonding capacity, have a minimum of seven years of operational experience, and show prior delivery of a comparable project valued at $25 million or more within the past 15 years. The Boring Company, thanks in no small part to the Vegas Loop, meets these requirements.
The Orlando selection adds to The Boring Company’s growing portfolio of Loop-style systems. In Las Vegas, the Las Vegas Convention Center Loop has transported more than two million passengers in Tesla vehicles through underground tunnels since 2021. The greater Vegas Loop system is also under construction.
For now, residents in the area seem enthusiastic about the upcoming project. In a comment to Fox35, residents noted that the tunnels could improve traffic in the area.
“We are very congested at certain times and certain hours and that would certainly help with people not having to budget their time,” Mary Walters-Clark, a resident, stated. Another resident, Scott Heinz, echoed similar sentiments. “I think it would be a new opportunity to lessen traffic load and good for visitors as well,” he said.
The tunneling startup has started bringing its Loop projects to international locations. It recently signed a memorandum of understanding with Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority to explore the development of a 17-kilometer underground Loop network beneath Dubai.






