News
SpaceX on track for US Air Force Falcon 9 mission later this year
Reading between the lines, the US Air Force has effectively confirmed that GPS III Space Vehicle 03 (SV03) – the third GPS III satellite built by Lockheed Martin – is ready for launch aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, scheduled no earlier than December 2019.
In December 2018, SpaceX successfully launched the first GPS III spacecraft aboard an expendable Falcon 9 Block 5 rocket, kicking off a launch campaign – shared between SpaceX and ULA – that will likely last until 2023 or 2024. Thus far, ULA has won a single GPS III launch contract, scheduled for July 2019, while SpaceX has won three (with options for two more). Thanks to competition forcefully reintroduced by a 2014 SpaceX lawsuit, the USAF – and thus US taxpayers – are likely saving a minimum of $50M per GPS III launch.
In late 2018, SpaceX’s closer followers were surprised to discover that brand new Falcon 9 Block 5 booster B1054 – the first to be officially certified for a critical operational military launch – was to be expended, making no attempt to land. This was confusing for several reasons.
“If Falcon 9 [was to be] expended solely because of mission performance requirements, despite the oddly low payload mass (~3800 kg) and comparatively low-energy orbit (~20,000 km), the only possible explanation for no attempted recovery would be the need for Falcon 9’s upper stage to circularize the orbit after a long coast. However, the mission parameters the USAF shopped around for would have placed the GPS III satellite into an elliptical orbit of 1000 km by 20,181 km, an orbit that would almost without a doubt leave Falcon 9 with enough propellant for a drone ship recovery.”
— Teslarati.com, December 2018
As it turns out, there was, in fact, nothing unique about the elliptical, medium-energy orbit GPS III SV01 was placed in. According to external analysis of the Falcon 9 upper stage’s final deorbit activities, SpaceX had “plenty of extra performance available”, objectively indicating that that excess performance was intentionally removed from booster B1054 at the cost of its ability to land. The (unconfirmed) reason for this is quite simple: the US Air Force chose extreme – perhaps even excessive – caution to account for the minute chance that myriad failures might happen mid-launch.
To sacrifice, or not to sacrifice
According to a USAF statement made in mid-May, GPS III Space Vehicle 03 (SV03) has been officially classed as “available for launch”, jargon that means the satellite is fully assembled and has successfully completed extensive pre-launch testing. For SpaceX’s inaugural GPS III launch (SV01), a pathfinder that carried unique wait and likely took additional processing time, SpaceX and the USAF took roughly five months to go from shipping the satellite to Florida to going vertical atop Falcon 9. More likely than not, GPS III SV03 has already begun to be prepared for transport from California to Florida, meaning that SV03 is roughly 1-2 months ahead of the schedule SV01 followed ahead of its Falcon 9 launch debut.
So: the GPS III satellite is ready for launch. The next critical milestones will be the satellite’s transport to Florida and SpaceX’s completion of the mission’s USAF-grade Falcon 9. B1054’s technically unnecessary sacrifice thus raises a question for SpaceX’s next GPS III launch, currently scheduled no earlier than December 2018: will another fresh Falcon 9 Block 5 booster be sacrificed to the gods of Obsessively Cautious Margins?
The optimist in me wants to say, “Of course!” With GPS III SV01, SpaceX perfectly demonstrated Falcon 9’s performance and permitted the USAF the luxury of expending a brand new Falcon 9 booster to satisfy the customer’s desire for extremely cautious margins. The Falcon 9 upper stage’s luxuriously expensive (in terms of delta V) deorbit burns – performed after a several-hour cost in orbit – served as another definitive demonstration of the rocket’s intentionally underutilized performance. Having demonstrated a flawless launch with margins on margins, it seems reasonable that the US Air Force would permit SpaceX the freedom to recover Falcon 9 B105x after launching GPS III SV03.
On the other hand, the USAF and Department of Defense are not exactly known for their rational, evidence-based strategies of decision-making and procurement. As such, it’s safe to say that – without official info from SpaceX or the USAF – the answer to the question of whether SpaceX will need to continue expending valuable boosters for GPS launches is entirely up in the air – call it a 50-50 split.
In the meantime, GPS III SV03’s Falcon 9 booster is likely several months away from shipping off to SpaceX’s McGregor, Texas facilities for static fire testing. Up next for SpaceX is a critical Falcon Heavy launch that could secure the rocket’s certification for US military launches, become the first USAF mission to utilize flight-proven SpaceX boosters, and pave the way for the USAF to develop a dedicated certification process for launching on commercially-developed reusable rockets.
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Elon Musk
SpaceX and xAI tapped by Pentagon for autonomous drone contest
The six-month competition was launched in January and is said to carry a $100 million award.
SpaceX and its AI subsidiary xAI are reportedly competing in a new Pentagon prize challenge focused on autonomous drone swarming technology, as per a report from Bloomberg News.
The six-month competition was launched in January and is said to carry a $100 million award.
Bloomberg reported that SpaceX and xAI are among a select group invited to participate in the Defense Department’s effort to develop advanced drone swarming capabilities. The goal is reportedly to create systems that can translate voice commands into digital instructions and manage fleets of autonomous drones.
Neither SpaceX, xAI, nor the Pentagon’s Defense Innovation Unit has commented on the report, and Reuters said it could not independently verify the details.
The development follows SpaceX’s recent acquisition of xAI, which pushed the valuation of the combined companies to an impressive $1.25 trillion. The reported competition comes as SpaceX prepares for a potential initial public offering later this year.
The Pentagon has been moving to speed up drone deployment and expand domestic manufacturing capacity, while also seeking tools to counter unauthorized drone activity around airports and major public events. Large-scale gatherings scheduled this year, including the FIFA World Cup and America250 celebrations, have heightened focus on aerial security.
The reported challenge aligns with broader Defense Department investments in artificial intelligence. Last year, OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, and xAI secured Pentagon contracts worth up to $200 million each to advance AI capabilities across defense applications.
Elon Musk previously joined AI and robotics researchers in signing a 2015 open letter calling for a ban on offensive autonomous weapons. In recent years, however, Musk has spoken on X about the strengths of drone technologies in combat situations.
News
Doug DeMuro names Tesla Model S the Most Important Car of the last 30 years
In a recent video, the noted reviewer stated that the choice was “not even a question.”
Popular automotive reviewer and YouTuber Doug DeMuro has named the 2012 Tesla Model S as the most important car of the last 30 years.
In a recent video, the noted reviewer stated that the choice was “not even a question,” arguing that the Model S did more to change the trajectory of the auto industry than any other vehicle released since the mid-1990s.
“Unquestionably in my mind, the number one most important car of the last 30 years… it’s not even a question,” DeMuro said. “The 2012 Tesla Model S. There is no doubt that that is the most important car of the last 30 years.”
DeMuro acknowledged that electric vehicle adoption has faced recent headwinds. Still, he maintained that long-term electrification is inevitable.
“If you’re a rational person who’s truthful with yourself, you know that the future is electric… whether it’s 10, 20, 30 years, the future will be electric, and it was the Model S that was the very first car that did that truthfully,” he said.
While earlier EVs like the Nissan Leaf and Chevrolet Volt arrived before the Model S, DeMuro argued that they did not fundamentally shift public perception. The Model S proved that EVs “could be cool, could be fast, could be luxurious, could be for enthusiasts.” It showed that buyers did not have to make major compromises to drive electric.
He also described the Model S as a cultural turning point. Tesla became more than a car company. The brand expanded into Superchargers, home energy products, and a broader tech identity.
DeMuro noted that the Leaf and Volt “made a huge splash and taught us that it was possible.” However, he drew a distinction between being first and bringing a technology into the mainstream.
“It’s rarely about the car that does it first. It’s about the car that brings it into the mainstream,” he said. “The Model S was the car that actually won the game even though the Leaf and Volt scored the first.”
He added that perhaps the Model S’ most surprising achievement was proving that a new American automaker could succeed. For decades, industry observers believed the infrastructure and capital requirements made that nearly impossible.
“For decades, it was generally agreed that there would never be another competitive American car company because the infrastructure and the investment required to start up another American car company as just too challenging… It was just a given basically that you couldn’t do it. And not only did they go it, but they created a cultural icon… That car just truly changed the world,” he said.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk doubles down on Tesla Cybercab timeline once again
“Cybercab, which has no pedals or steering wheel, starts production in April,” Musk said.
CEO Elon Musk doubled down once again on the timeline of production for the Tesla Cybercab, marking yet another example of the confidence he has in the company’s ability to meet the aggressive timeline for the vehicle.
It is the third time in the past six months that Musk has explicitly stated Cybercab will enter production in April 2026.
On Monday morning, Musk reiterated that Cybercab will enter its initial manufacturing phase in April, and that it would not have any pedals or a steering wheel, two things that have been speculated as potential elements of the vehicle, if needed.
Cybercab, which has no pedals or steering wheel, starts production in April https://t.co/yShxZ2HJqp
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 16, 2026
Musk has been known to be aggressive with timelines, and some products have been teased for years and years before they finally come to fruition.
One of perhaps the biggest complaints about Musk is the fact that Tesla does not normally reach the deadlines that are set: the Roadster, Semi, and Unsupervised Full Self-Driving suite are a few of those that have been given “end of this year” timelines, but have not been fulfilled.
Nevertheless, many are able to look past this as part of the process. New technology takes time to develop, but we’d rather not hear about when, and just the progress itself.
However, the Cybercab is a bit different. Musk has said three times in the past six months that Cybercab will be built in April, and this is something that is sort of out of the ordinary for him.
In December 2025, he said that Tesla was “testing the production system” of the vehicle and that “real production ramp starts in April.
Elon Musk shares incredible detail about Tesla Cybercab efficiency
On January 23, he said that “Cybercab production starts in April.” He did the same on February 16, marking yet another occasion that Musk has his sights set on April for initial production of the vehicle.
Musk has also tempered expectations for the Cybercab’s initial production phase. In January, he noted that Cybercab would be subjected to the S-curve-type production speed:
“…initial production is always very slow and follows an S-curve. The speed of production ramp is inversely proportionate to how many new parts and steps there are. For Cybercab and Optimus, almost everything is new, so the early production rate will be agonizingly slow, but eventually end up being insanely fast.”
Cybercab will be a huge part of Tesla’s autonomous ride-sharing plans moving forward.
SpaceX and xAI tapped by Pentagon for autonomous drone contest
Doug DeMuro names Tesla Model S the Most Important Car of the last 30 years
