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SpaceX Starlink launch suffers third weather scrub, next attempt Tuesday

SpaceX is headed for its third Starlink-12 launch attempt after ~20 days of delays. (SpaceX)

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Update: Multiple weather constraint violations forced SpaceX to scrub today’s Starlink-12 launch attempt less than half an hour before liftoff, marking the mission’s third weather-related scrub and fourth abort overall since mid-September. As of October 4th, the US Air Force 45th Space Wing predicted a 40% chance of weather violation.

SpaceX’s fifth Starlink-12 launch attempt is scheduled no earlier than 7:29 am EDT (11:29 UTC) on Tuesday, October 6th. The mission-specific T-1 weather forecast predicts a 70% chance of favorable conditions.

On the heels of a rare last-second Falcon 9 launch abort, SpaceX is closing in on its third attempt to launch the 12th batch of operational Starlink satellites.

Scheduled to lift off from Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Launch Complex 39A (Pad 39A) no earlier than (NET) 7:51 am EDT (11:51 UTC) on Monday, October 5th, Starlink-12 was originally scheduled to launch in mid-September. Bad weather at the Atlantic Ocean landing zone caused a ten-day delay from September 17th to the 27th, followed by a pad weather delay on the 28th.

After a ULA Delta IV Heavy mission with range priority was scrubbed for the seventh time on September 30th, SpaceX tried to launch Starlink-12 again but suffered an abort – later blamed on a pad sensor – seven seconds before liftoff. Finally, a new Falcon 9 launch with an upgraded GPS III satellite aboard was aborted just two seconds before liftoff on October 2nd. Moved from NET October 3rd to the 5th just prior to GPS III SV04’s separate launch delay, Starlink-12 is now up next.

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Interrupting what has otherwise been a much-improved level of launch readiness and schedule reliability for Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy’s Block 5 upgrade, this recent string of delays – while mostly the result of weather and ULA’s own NROL-44 launch delays – has even become a concern for CEO Elon Musk. Currently focused on building out SpaceX’s new Starship factory and pushing towards the rocket’s first high-altitude and orbital test flights in Boca Chica, Texas, Musk stated that he would be flying to Cape Canaveral “to review hardware in person” on the week of October 5th.

Musk also says that SpaceX is “doing a broad review of launch site, propulsion, structures, avionics, range, & regulatory constraints” to determine if an apparent goal of “48 launches” in 2021 is feasible.

To be fair to SpaceX, most of the plague of delays suffered by the company in the last month has been caused by a mixture of weather and the range’s preferential treatment of ULA’s “national security” NROL-44 launch. Additionally, of an impressive seven ULA NROL-44 launch attempts between August 26th and September 30th, just a single one was caused by weather – the remaining six a result of a wide variety of technical software and hardware bugs. SpaceX’s Starlink-12 and GPS III SV04 missions have only suffered one technical launch abort each on September 30th and October 2nd.

In other words, short of upgrading Falcon rockets to launch and land in worse weather conditions, most of SpaceX’s delays have been largely out of the company’s control, while ULA’s NROL-44 struggles demonstrate just how much worse things could be. According to an unofficial analysis of 44 Falcon Block 5 launches since May 2018, only four technical launch aborts have been triggered by a booster fault. Pad-caused aborts have been roughly as common, meaning that 1 in roughly 6 to 8 SpaceX launches suffers some kind of abort shortly before liftoff, on average.

Both captured in one frame, SpaceX’s GPS III SV04 and Starlink-12 missions have run into repeated launch delays over the last 1-3 weeks. (SpaceX)

Altogether, Falcon Block 5 rockets have been relatively dependable for on-time, on-schedule launches even if SpaceX has struggled with more repeated delays than usual in the last few months. To achieve anywhere close to 48 launches annually, however, major improvements will need to be made, likely including upgrades to whatever is responsible for Falcon 9’s weather constraints. As of October 2020, SpaceX has never launched four times in one month (or four times in the same ~30-day period). To launch 48 times in one year, SpaceX will need to average four launches per month. That, of course, in no way accounts for the possibility that 2020-esque summer weather could functionally cut 4-8+ weeks off of Falcon 9’s annual availability.

Regardless, SpaceX will begin live coverage of the third Starlink-12 launch attempt around 7:35 am EDT (11:35 UTC). Tune in to (hopefully) catch the company’s 17th launch this year.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang regrets not investing more in Elon Musk’s xAI

The CEO stated that Nvidia is already an investor in xAI, but he wished he had given the artificial intelligence startup more money.

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Credit: Elon Musk/X

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang revealed that one of his investment regrets is not putting more money into Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup, xAI. 

Speaking in a CNBC interview, Huang said Nvidia is already an investor in xAI but wished he had given the artificial intelligence startup more money. This was due to Musk’s record of building transformative companies such as Tesla and SpaceX.

A new wave of transformative AI firms

Huang said he’s very excited about xAI’s latest financing round. He described Musk’s company as part of a powerful new generation of AI developers, alongside OpenAI and Anthropic. that are reshaping the computing landscape.

“I’m super excited about the financing opportunity they’re doing. The only regret I have about xAI, we’re an investor already, is that I didn’t give him more money. You know almost everything that Elon’s pat of, you really want to be part of as well,” the Nvidia CEO stated.

The CEO also clarified Nvidia’s investment in xAI, revealing that Elon Musk had offered the investment opportunity to the chipmaker. “He (Musk) gave us the opportunity to invest in xAI. I’m just delighted by that,” Huang stated.

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AI investment boom

Huang contrasted today’s AI-driven economy with the early days of the internet. “Back then, all the internet companies combined were maybe $30 or $40 billion in size,” he said. “If you look at the hyperscalers now, that’s about $2.5 trillion of business already operating today.”

He also stated that the ongoing shift from CPU-based computing to GPU-powered generative AI represents a “multi-trillion-dollar buildout” that Nvidia is looking to support. Huang added that every Nvidia engineer now works with AI coding assistants such as Cursor, which he called his “favorite enterprise AI service,” and it has led to a major productivity boost across the company.

Watch Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s CNBC interview in the video below.

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Investor's Corner

Stifel raises Tesla price target by 9.8% over FSD, Robotaxi advancements

Stifel also maintained a “Buy” rating for the electric vehicle maker.

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Credit: Tesla China

Investment firm Stifel has raised its price target for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares to $483 from $440 over increased confidence in the company’s self-driving and Robotaxi programs. The new price target suggests an 11.5% upside from Tesla’s closing price on Tuesday.

Stifel also maintained a “Buy” rating despite acknowledging that Tesla’s timeline for fully unsupervised driving may be ambitious.

Building confidence

In a note to clients, Stifel stated that it believes “Tesla is making progress with modest advancements in its Robotaxi network and FSD,” as noted in a report from Investing.com. The firm expects unsupervised FSD to become available for personal use in the U.S. by the end of 2025, with a wider ride-hailing rollout potentially covering half of the U.S. population by year-end.

Stifel also noted that Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet could expand from “tiny to gigantic” within a short time frame, possibly making a material financial impact to the company by late 2026. The firm views Tesla’s vision-based approach to autonomy as central to this long-term growth, suggesting that continued advancements could unlock new revenue streams across both consumer and mobility sectors.

Tesla’s FSD goals still ambitious

While Stifel’s tone remains optimistic, the firm’s analysts acknowledged that Tesla’s aggressive autonomy timeline may face execution challenges. The note described the 2025 unsupervised FSD target as “a stretch,” though still achievable in the medium term.

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“We believe Tesla is making progress with modest advancements in its Robotaxi network and FSD. The company has high expectations for its camera-based approach including; 1) Unsupervised FSD to be available for personal use in the United States by year-end 2025, which appears to be a stretch but seems more likely in the medium term; 2) that it will ‘probably have ride hailing in probably half of the populations of the U.S. by the end of the year’,” the firm noted.

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Tesla Cybertruck gets Full Self-Driving v14 release date, sort of

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Tesla Cybertruck owners are wondering when they will get access to the company’s Full Self-Driving version 14.1 that rolled out to other owners today for the first time.

Cybertruck owners typically receive Full Self-Driving updates slightly later than other drivers, as the process for the all-electric pickup is different. It is a larger vehicle that requires some additional attention from Tesla before FSD versions are rolled out, so they will be slightly delayed. CEO Elon Musk said the all-wheel steering technically requires a bit more attention before rollout as well.

After some owners got access to the v14.1 Full Self-Driving suite this morning, Cybertruck owners sought out a potential timeframe for when they would be able to experience things for themselves.

Tesla owners show off improvements with new Full Self-Driving v14 rollout

They were able to get an answer from Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla’s Head of AI, who said:

“We got you. Coming soon.”

The release of FSD v14.1 for Cybertruck will not be tempered, either. Elluswamy then confirmed that Tesla would be rolling out the full-featured FSD v14 for the pickup, meaning it would be able to reverse and park itself, among other features.

Elluswamy said it would be capable of these features, which were void in other FSD releases for Cybertruck in the past.

Tesla’s rollout of FSD v14.1 brings several extremely notable changes and improvements to the suite, including more refined operation in parking garages, a new ability to choose parking preferences upon arriving at your destination, a new driving mode called “Sloth,” which is even more reserved than “Chill,” and general operational improvements.

Those who were lucky enough to receive the suite have already started showing off the improvements, and they definitely seem to be a step up from what v13’s more recent versions were capable of.

CEO Elon Musk called v14 “sentient” a few weeks back, and it seems that it is moving toward that. However, he did state that additional releases with more capabilities would be available in the coming weeks, but many owners are still waiting for this first version.

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