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SpaceX Starlink launch suffers third weather scrub, next attempt Tuesday

SpaceX is headed for its third Starlink-12 launch attempt after ~20 days of delays. (SpaceX)

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Update: Multiple weather constraint violations forced SpaceX to scrub today’s Starlink-12 launch attempt less than half an hour before liftoff, marking the mission’s third weather-related scrub and fourth abort overall since mid-September. As of October 4th, the US Air Force 45th Space Wing predicted a 40% chance of weather violation.

SpaceX’s fifth Starlink-12 launch attempt is scheduled no earlier than 7:29 am EDT (11:29 UTC) on Tuesday, October 6th. The mission-specific T-1 weather forecast predicts a 70% chance of favorable conditions.

On the heels of a rare last-second Falcon 9 launch abort, SpaceX is closing in on its third attempt to launch the 12th batch of operational Starlink satellites.

Scheduled to lift off from Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Launch Complex 39A (Pad 39A) no earlier than (NET) 7:51 am EDT (11:51 UTC) on Monday, October 5th, Starlink-12 was originally scheduled to launch in mid-September. Bad weather at the Atlantic Ocean landing zone caused a ten-day delay from September 17th to the 27th, followed by a pad weather delay on the 28th.

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After a ULA Delta IV Heavy mission with range priority was scrubbed for the seventh time on September 30th, SpaceX tried to launch Starlink-12 again but suffered an abort – later blamed on a pad sensor – seven seconds before liftoff. Finally, a new Falcon 9 launch with an upgraded GPS III satellite aboard was aborted just two seconds before liftoff on October 2nd. Moved from NET October 3rd to the 5th just prior to GPS III SV04’s separate launch delay, Starlink-12 is now up next.

Interrupting what has otherwise been a much-improved level of launch readiness and schedule reliability for Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy’s Block 5 upgrade, this recent string of delays – while mostly the result of weather and ULA’s own NROL-44 launch delays – has even become a concern for CEO Elon Musk. Currently focused on building out SpaceX’s new Starship factory and pushing towards the rocket’s first high-altitude and orbital test flights in Boca Chica, Texas, Musk stated that he would be flying to Cape Canaveral “to review hardware in person” on the week of October 5th.

Musk also says that SpaceX is “doing a broad review of launch site, propulsion, structures, avionics, range, & regulatory constraints” to determine if an apparent goal of “48 launches” in 2021 is feasible.

To be fair to SpaceX, most of the plague of delays suffered by the company in the last month has been caused by a mixture of weather and the range’s preferential treatment of ULA’s “national security” NROL-44 launch. Additionally, of an impressive seven ULA NROL-44 launch attempts between August 26th and September 30th, just a single one was caused by weather – the remaining six a result of a wide variety of technical software and hardware bugs. SpaceX’s Starlink-12 and GPS III SV04 missions have only suffered one technical launch abort each on September 30th and October 2nd.

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In other words, short of upgrading Falcon rockets to launch and land in worse weather conditions, most of SpaceX’s delays have been largely out of the company’s control, while ULA’s NROL-44 struggles demonstrate just how much worse things could be. According to an unofficial analysis of 44 Falcon Block 5 launches since May 2018, only four technical launch aborts have been triggered by a booster fault. Pad-caused aborts have been roughly as common, meaning that 1 in roughly 6 to 8 SpaceX launches suffers some kind of abort shortly before liftoff, on average.

Both captured in one frame, SpaceX’s GPS III SV04 and Starlink-12 missions have run into repeated launch delays over the last 1-3 weeks. (SpaceX)

Altogether, Falcon Block 5 rockets have been relatively dependable for on-time, on-schedule launches even if SpaceX has struggled with more repeated delays than usual in the last few months. To achieve anywhere close to 48 launches annually, however, major improvements will need to be made, likely including upgrades to whatever is responsible for Falcon 9’s weather constraints. As of October 2020, SpaceX has never launched four times in one month (or four times in the same ~30-day period). To launch 48 times in one year, SpaceX will need to average four launches per month. That, of course, in no way accounts for the possibility that 2020-esque summer weather could functionally cut 4-8+ weeks off of Falcon 9’s annual availability.

Regardless, SpaceX will begin live coverage of the third Starlink-12 launch attempt around 7:35 am EDT (11:35 UTC). Tune in to (hopefully) catch the company’s 17th launch this year.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Lemonade launches Tesla FSD insurance program in Oregon

The program was announced by Lemonade co-founder Shai Wininger on social media platform X.

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Credit: Grok Imagine

Tesla drivers in Oregon can now receive significant insurance discounts when using FSD, following the launch of Lemonade’s new Autonomous Car insurance program. 

The program was announced by Lemonade co-founder Shai Wininger on social media platform X.

Lemonade launches FSD-based insurance in Oregon

In a post on X, Wininger confirmed that Lemondade’s Autonomous Car insurance product for Tesla is now live in Oregon. The program allows eligible Tesla owners to receive roughly 50% off insurance costs for every mile driven using Tesla’s FSD system.

“And… we’re ON. @Lemonade_Inc’s Autonomous Car for @Tesla FSD is now live in Oregon. Tesla drivers in Oregon can now get ~50% off their Tesla FSD-driven miles + the best car insurance experience in the US, bar none,” Wininger wrote in his post. 

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As per Lemonade on its official website, the program is built on Tesla’s safety data, which indicates that miles driven using FSD are approximately twice as safe as those driven manually. As a result, Lemonade prices those miles at a lower rate. The insurer noted that as FSD continues to improve, associated discounts could increase over time.

How Lemonade tracks FSD miles

Lemonade’s FSD discount works through a direct integration with Tesla vehicles, enabled only with a driver’s explicit permission. Once connected, the system distinguishes between miles driven manually and those driven using FSD, applying the discount automatically to qualifying miles.

There is no minimum FSD usage requirement. Drivers who use FSD occasionally still receive discounted rates for those miles, while non-FSD miles are billed at competitive standard rates. Lemonade also emphasized that coverage and claims handling remain unchanged regardless of whether a vehicle is operating under manual control or FSD at the time of an incident.

The program is currently available only to Teslas equipped with Hardware 4 or newer, running firmware version 2025.44.25.5 or later. Lemonade also allows policyholders to bundle Tesla insurance with renters, homeowners, pet, or life insurance policies for additional savings.

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Tesla exec: Preparations underway but no firm timeline yet for FSD rollout in China

The information was related by Tesla China Vice President Grace Tao in a comment to local media.

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Credit: Grok Imagine

Tesla has not set a specific launch date for Full Self-Driving in China, despite the company’s ongoing preparations for a local FSD rollout. 

The information was related by Tesla China Vice President Grace Tao in a comment to local media.

Tesla China prepares FSD infrastructure

Speaking in a recent media interview, the executive confirmed that Tesla has established a local training center in China to support the full adaptation of FSD to domestic driving conditions, as noted in a report from Sina News. However, she also noted that the company does not have a specific date when FSD will officially roll out in China.

“We have set up a local training center in China specifically to handle this adaptation,” Tao said. “Once officially released, it will demonstrate a level of performance that is no less than, and may even surpass, that of local drivers.”

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Tao also emphasized the rapid accumulation of data by Tesla’s FSD system, with the executive highlighting that Full Self-Driving has now accumulated more than 7.5 billion miles of real-world driving data worldwide.

Possible 2026 rollout

The Tesla executive’s comments come amidst Elon Musk’s previous comments suggesting that regulatory approval in China could arrive sometime this 2026. During Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting in November 2025, Musk clarified that FSD had only received “partial approval” in China, though full authorization could potentially arrive around February or March 2026.

Musk reiterated that timeline at the World Economic Forum in Davos, when he stated that FSD approval in China could come as early as February.

Tesla’s latest FSD software, version 14, is already being tested in more advanced deployments in the United States. The company has also started the rollout of its fully unsupervised Robotaxis in Austin, Texas, which no longer feature safety monitors.

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Tesla Semi lines up for $165M in California incentives ahead of mass production

The update was initially reported by The Los Angeles Times.

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Credit: @HinrichsZane/X

Tesla is reportedly positioned to receive roughly $165 million in California clean-truck incentives for its Semi.

The update was initially reported by The Los Angeles Times.

As per the Times, the Tesla Semi’s funding will come from California’s Hybrid and Zero-Emission Truck and Bus Incentive Project (HVIP), which was designed to accelerate the adoption of cleaner medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. Since its launch in 2009, the HVIP has distributed more than $1.6 billion to support zero-emission trucks and buses across the state.

In recent funding rounds, nearly 1,000 HVIP vouchers were provisionally reserved for the Tesla Semi, giving Tesla a far larger share of available funding than any other automaker. An analysis by the Times found that even after revisions to public data, Tesla still accounts for about $165 million in incentives. The next-largest recipient, Canadian bus manufacturer New Flyer, received roughly $68 million.

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This is quite unsurprising, however, considering that the Tesla Semi does not have a lot of competition in the zero-emissions trucking segment.

To qualify for HVIP funding, vehicles must be approved by the California Air Resources Board and listed in the program catalog, as noted in an electrive report. When the Tesla Semi voucher applications were submitted, public certification records only showed eligibility for the 2024 model year, with later model years not yet listed.

State officials have stated that certification details often involve confidential business information and that funding will only be paid once vehicles are fully approved and delivered. Still, the first-come, first-served nature of HVIP means large voucher reservations can effectively crowd out competing electric trucks. Incentive amounts for the Semi reportedly ranged from about $84,000 to as much as $351,000 per vehicle after data adjustments. 

Unveiled in 2017, the Tesla Semi has seen limited deliveries so far, though CEO Elon Musk has recently reiterated that the Class 8 all-electric truck will enter mass production this year.

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