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SpaceX hit by back to back Falcon 9 and Starship rocket delays
SpaceX has been hit by multiple back-to-back Falcon 9 launch and Starship test delays in a period of a few days, ending the company’s second attempt at a potentially record-breaking month.
Originally scheduled to launch no earlier than (NET) June 22nd, give or take, SpaceX’s own Starlink-9 satellite mission kicked off the misfortune and has suffered the most. After SpaceX announced an indefinite delay on July 11th to allow for “more time for checkouts”, Starlink-9 is not expected to launch for several more days at best. On July 13th, SpaceX announced that another summer mission targeting a NET July 14th launch had also been delayed indefinitely to allow teams to inspect the Falcon 9 rocket’s upper stage and potentially replace hardware.
Those two delays have had follow-on effects on subsequent launches planned in late July and early August but the actual end-results will be hard to determine until SpaceX has settled on alternate launch dates for Starlink-9 and ANASIS II. Meanwhile, all throughout those orbital-class launch delays, the first Raptor engine test with SpaceX’s fifth full-scale Starship has been consistently delayed and is now expected no earlier than this week (roughly July 15-19). The swath of delays have been so pronounced and oddly simultaneous that CEO Elon Musk even weighed in on Twitter yesterday, shedding a bit of light on the situation.
On July 13th, in response to a Spaceflight Now article detailing a few of those setbacks, Musk revealed that SpaceX is “being extra paranoid” – presumably the cause of most of the recent delays. Per Musk, “maximizing [the] probability of [a] successful launch is paramount” to SpaceX – not exactly a shocking revelation but still good to hear. Over the last six or so weeks, SpaceX has attempted to substantially ramp its launch cadence, targeting an unprecedented four launches in June 2020.
Delays reared their head, however, beginning with Starlink-9 around the last week of the month. SpaceX simply carried its four-launch-month ambitions into July, although that goal has already been pushed out of reach before the first launch of the month. As of July 1st, SpaceX has completed 11 launches in 2020 and has at least another 16 within tentative launch targets in the second half of the year. To complete all 16, the company would have to average almost three launches per month for the rest of 2020, a cadence it’s only managed to sustain for two or so months at a time.
Before ANASIS II’s indefinite delay was announced, Falcon 9 booster B1058 was on track to smash the world record for the fastest turnaround of an orbital class rocket, beating NASA’s Space Shuttle by ~20% (9 days). Somewhat ironically, some concerns surrounding the unflown upper stage have triggered said delay, while the record-breaking B1058 booster was apparently ready for launch. Like Starlink-9, ANASIS II’s delay is indefinite, meaning that it could last just a few days or stretch weeks into the future. If SpaceX manages to turn around for a second launch attempt before July 26th, though, B1058 still has a shot at becoming the world’s most rapidly reusable orbital-class rocket.
Meanwhile, Starship SN5 has been slowly wading through delay after delay as SpaceX’s South Texas team prepares the rocket for its first wet dress rehearsals (WDRs) with live propellant and its first Raptor engine ignition tests (i.e. static fires). As few as a few days after that test is complete, SpaceX wants to launch the massive steel rocket on the first full-scale hop test, potentially reaching 150m (500 ft) or higher before attempting to land nearby.
Prior to numerous delays, Starship SN5’s first static fire was expected to occur as early as late June or early July. As of now, SpaceX appears to be targeting the first wet dress rehearsal (WDR) with live methane and oxygen propellant (a precursor to any flight test) no earlier than (NET) July 15th to test SN5’s “fuel pump.” If successful, SpaceX would presumably move into static fire operations within a few days, followed another few days later by the first hop test attempt if the static fire was also successful.
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Elon Musk
SpaceX’s next trillion dollar bet has nothing to do with rockets, Musk tells staff
Elon Musk told SpaceX staff AI revenue will soon dwarf rockets and Starlink combined entirely.
Elon Musk told SpaceX employees this week that artificial intelligence, not rockets, will soon carry the company’s revenue. In a roughly 29 minute internal address posted on SpaceX’s X account on Tuesday, Musk said AI revenue will pass every other line of business at SpaceX “probably in September” and pull further ahead by the fourth quarter.
The numbers he gave are specific. SpaceX currently runs 1.4 gigawatts of AI compute capacity. Musk wants that at 10 gigawatts by the end of 2027, a jump he tied directly to revenue: “if we bring 10GW of AI online by the end of next year, it will be $300 billion to $500 billion a year in revenue.” He called those “big numbers,” which undersells a projection larger than what most countries produce in a year.
We made rockets reusable and are rebuilding the internet in space. The next challenge: making life multiplanetary and understanding the true nature of the universe
Watch @ElonMusk deliver a company update to @SpaceX employees pic.twitter.com/5c8rxoCQfu
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) August 11, 2026
Musk went further on where AI fits into SpaceX’s future. “Probably in four or five years, AI will be 99% of the value of SpaceX,” he told staff, adding that digital intelligence would eventually run “a trillion times” ahead of biological intelligence as computing scales. He tied that growth to the company’s founding mission, telling employees “we must win on AI, because the future is overwhelmingly AI and robots,” with the payoff meant to help fund Starship and a Mars program that increasingly runs through Terafab, the joint Tesla, SpaceX and xAI chip plant.
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None of this is entirely new territory. SpaceX told investors much the same story during its first earnings call as a public company on August 4, where Musk moved the company’s $1 trillion revenue target up a year to 2030 and said Starlink could someday carry a majority of the world’s internet. What the all hands video adds is a hard deadline and a specific power figure Musk had not given publicly before, along with a franker pitch to his own workforce that AI, not launch cadence, is now the thing SpaceX is betting its future on.
The AI revenue itself is not coming from SpaceX training its own models. It is largely Starlink acting as the network layer for xAI’s workloads, plus SpaceX renting out compute capacity directly, the same approach behind the roughly $16 billion the company spent on AI infrastructure in a single quarter.
Musk closed the video with a pitch aimed at recruiting and retention rather than investors, telling employees that anyone who helps SpaceX win the AI race will eventually get the chance to go to the moon or Mars themselves. Whether SpaceX can turn 1.4 gigawatts into 10 in seventeen months is the more immediate question, and one that will show up in quarterly numbers well before anyone leaves Earth.
In a new note to investors on Tuesday, Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco said that Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors regarding its Robotaxi rollout, Full Self-Driving software, and Optimus.
Percoco said in the note that, for the most part, investors are still very positive about the direction the company is headed. However, there are some things the firm would like to see, and they have to do with financials.
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Tesla bulls are more than convinced that the company’s Full Self-Driving software is proof it can develop physical AI. Financially, however, there are still some questions, especially on elevated spending, which CEO Elon Musk said would occur as the company works to roll out Robotaxi faster and continue developing its Optimus robot.
The latter two are where Tesla will have to prove progress to investors, as Percoco writes that both projects “will require clearer evidence that Robotaxi is scaling and more tangible Optimus proof points to support the ROI on elevated capex.”
Percoco said the second quarter earnings call did not change his long-term thesis of where Tesla is positioned in the AI race, which is out in front. However, there are concerns that weaker gross margins and higher R&D spend will stress financials, and that has “sharpened our (and investors’) focus on measurable progress across Robotaxi and Optimus.”
Additionally, Robotaxi still needs to be proven with more operation in existing cities while maintaining safety but improving how many rides it gives in any given time, he said. For Optimus, Percoco wrote that he is “still looking for evidence beyond commentary around SOP.”
Morgan Stanley put Percoco in charge of covering Tesla after long-time analyst Adam Jonas transitioned to the automotive side.
Currently, Morgan Stanley has a $415 price target on Tesla and a ‘Hold’ rating on the stock. It is trading at around $330 at the time of publication, which was 2:30 P.M. on the East Coast.
SpaceX’s massive investment in AI will make it a big winner, Argus Research said after the company’s successful earnings call last week.
The firm also upgraded shares to a Buy from Hold and set a $160 price target.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is currently recovering from its heavy AI infrastructure investments, as it spent nearly $16 billion in Q2 alone. The company did this primarily by monetizing high-demand GPU compute capacity at a much faster pace than traditional data center economics would suggest.
Company CFO Bret Johnsen said that SpaceX would be able to pay back anything on new deployments within a year.
There are plenty of ways the company can do this:
Leasing excess compute capacity through contracts
SpaceX has already built Colossus and Colossus II, largely for its own model training. However, much of that capacity is already rented out to third parties. It already has major deals with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. These partnerships are adding billions per month to SpaceX’s spreadsheet.
High utilization driven by industry-wide scarcity
The demand for advanced AI training and inference capacity continues to exceed what is available for use. SpaceX can fill new racks quickly after they come online, so the capital deployed converts into revenue with minimal idle time.
Additionally, management and outside observers have described the new compute capital as behaving more like a cost-of-goods-sold than traditional multi-year capex, especially because of this rapid monetization pattern.
Capacity has already scaled from ~0.4 GW a year to 1.4 GW annually by the end of Q2. There are targets of more than 2 GW by year-end.
High incremental margins on the rental business once capacity is online
GPU cloud providers often operate at strong gross margins. SpaceX can monetize capacity that was already partially built or can be added efficiently. This means that incremental EBITDA margins on the rental revenue are usually high. This accelerates cash recovery relative to the gross capital outlay.
Parallel monetization of its own AI software and applications
Beyond pure infrastructure rental, SpaceX also generates revenue from Grok through subscriptions and usage, from X through ads, data, and other related services, enterprise APIs, and the planned integration of the Cursor coding tools acquisition.
These application layers ride on the same compute infrastructure and provide additional high-margin streams that could offset build-out costs. AI-segment revenue overall rose sharply to about $2.6 billion in Q2, according to Motley Fool. This was driven primarily by the infrastructure contracts, but the software side is also partially responsible.
Efficient, large-scale deployment and vertical integration advantages
SpaceX has emphasized the rapid construction of power and cooling infrastructure and favorable cost-per-megawatt economics relative to industry benchmarks in some disclosures.
Combined with its ability to scale capacity aggressively and the fact that many contracts start generating revenue within months of capacity coming online, the effective payback compresses dramatically compared with more conventional multi-year data-center projects.
SpaceX’s dominant near-term recovery path will turn the AI clusters into a hyperscale-style compute rental business for other leading AI companies while still using a portion for internal models.
SpaceX’s next trillion dollar bet has nothing to do with rockets, Musk tells staff
Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors: Morgan Stanley
