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SpaceX’s next Falcon Heavy booster arrives in Texas for static fire

Falcon Heavy Flight 3 center core B1057 is pictured here performing a static fire test in 2019. (SpaceX)

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SpaceX’s fourth Falcon Heavy launch continues to inch closer, most recently celebrating what appears to be the arrival of one of three new Falcon Heavy boosters for static fire testing in Texas.

There’s a chance that the booster in question is just a regular Falcon 9 first stage but per photos from local resident Reagan, the unusual presence of a white interstage (the carbon fiber composite section containing grid fins and second stage deployment hardware) implies otherwise.

Following several months of inactivity since the first of three new Falcon Heavy side boosters – ‘disguised’ with a rejected Falcon 9 interstage – arrived at SpaceX’s McGregor, Texas test facilities, the latest booster is most likely the second of two new Falcon Heavy side boosters needed for a US military launch later this year.

After departing SpaceX’s Hawthorne, California factory sometime in late August 2020, hardware NASASpaceflight later confirmed to be the first of three new Falcon Heavy boosters went vertical at the company’s McGregor, Texas booster static fire stand around a month later. Oddly, unlike the four other Falcon Heavy side boosters SpaceX has tested over the last several years, this particular core arrived in Texas with a placeholder interstage instead of a telltale nosecone.

Why is unclear given that two previous side boosters were static fired with nosecones installed. Regardless, given that the newest booster entrant’s white interstage does not appear to have any custom center core hardware installed, it’s most likely the second of two Falcon Heavy Flight 4 side boosters.

Falcon Heavy Flight 2. The booster in the middle - B1055 - was effectively sheared in half after tipping over aboard drone ship OCISLY. (Pauline Acalin)
Falcon Heavy Flight 2 readies for launch with three Block 5 boosters; B1052, B1053, and center core B1055. (Pauline Acalin)

If the rocket passes those acceptance tests, that will leave another two stages – a custom center core and orbital upper stage – left to ship and test before SpaceX can say it has all hardware on hand for the triple-booster rocket’s fourth launch. Delayed from Q4 2020 to February 2021 in September 2020, that all-new Falcon Heavy’s first launch is known as AFSPC-44 or USSF-44 and will deliver an unspecified US military satellite and one or more rideshare payloads directly to geostationary orbit (GEO) – a first for SpaceX.

Unless this second side booster is days away from a brisk static fire test and a new Falcon Heavy center core and upper stage are either already at McGregor or days away from departing Hawthorne, a February 2021 launch target is all but impossible.

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Not long after that tentative February 28th launch date was announced, a USAF official did offer an updated target, stating that USSF-44 was now expected to launch in “late spring” – implying (at least in the US) May or June 2021. It’s unclear what’s to blame for the six or more months of delays the mission has suffered in the last year but continued booster testing is a good sign that things are more or less back on track.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla widens rollout of new Full Self-Driving suite to more owners

Tesla started rolling out Full Self-Driving v14 nearly two weeks ago, but it was a very controlled release that made its way to only a small group of owners who are part of the EAP.

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tesla autopilot
(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla is widening its rollout of the new Full Self-Driving suite to more owners, after it had been confined to those in the Early Access Program (EAP) for a couple of weeks.

Tesla started rolling out Full Self-Driving v14 nearly two weeks ago, but it was a very controlled release that made its way to only a small group of owners who are part of the EAP.

It seemed logical to keep things tight; v14 was Tesla’s first major FSD release in a year, and it featured a handful of new features, including a new, slower driving profile known as “Sloth,” and the ability to park in an area at the destination that was designated by the driver.

There were also other improvements, including parking garage navigation, yielding for emergency vehicles, better recognition and handling for road debris, and a more refined ride experience overall. So far, it has been the best FSD suite Tesla has rolled out, capable of more than any previous release.

However, it has only been available to that small group of EAP Tesla owners. Now, it appears Tesla is starting to roll out Full Self-Driving v14 to more owners for the first time with v14.1.2:

Tesla rolled out FSD v14.1.2 for the first time last night, introducing further refinements to the initial two v14 iterations that were made available to owners, as well as the new Mad Max Speed Profile, which offers higher speeds during travel and more lane changes.

Tesla launches ‘Mad Max’ Full Self-Driving Speed Profile, its fastest yet

The first reviews of the Mad Max Speed Profile have been raving with positivity. Owners praise its ability to handle congestion and heavy traffic, as well as its decisiveness and reduced hesitation, which other Profiles have been noted for in the past two v14 releases.

The expansion of the FSD suite, especially with this new version, will make so many owners happy, as the release has been slow, controlled, and exclusive. Now that it is making its way to more Tesla owners, we will see more refinements and features in the coming weeks.

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Investor's Corner

Barclays lifts Tesla price target ahead of Q3 earnings amid AI momentum

Analyst Dan Levy adjusted his price target for TSLA stock from $275 to $350, while maintaining an “Equal Weight” rating for the EV maker.

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Credit: Tesla China

Barclays has raised its price target for Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA), with the firm’s analysts stating that the electric vehicle maker is approaching its Q3 earnings with two contrasting “stories.” 

Analyst Dan Levy adjusted his price target for TSLA stock from $275 to $350, while maintaining an “Equal Weight” rating for the EV maker.

Tesla’s AI and autonomy narrative

Levy told investors that Tesla’s “accelerating autonomous and AI narrative,” amplified by CEO Elon Musk’s proposed compensation package, is energizing market sentiment. The analyst stated that expectations for a Q3 earnings-per-share beat are supported by improved vehicle delivery volumes and stronger-than-expected gross margins, as noted in a TipRanks report.

Tesla has been increasingly positioning itself as an AI-driven company, with Elon Musk frequently emphasizing the long-term potential of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and products like Optimus, both of which are heavily driven by AI. The company’s AI focus has also drawn the support of key companies like Nvidia, one of the world’s largest companies today.

Still cautious on TSLA

Despite bullish AI sentiments, Barclays maintained its caution on Tesla’s underlying business metrics. Levy described the firm’s stance as “leaning neutral to slightly negative” heading into the Q3 earnings call, citing concerns about near-term fundamentals of the electric vehicle maker.

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Barclays is not the only firm that has expressed its concerns about TSLA stock recently. As per previous reports, BNP Paribas Exane also shared an “Underperform” rating on the company due to its two biggest products, the Robotaxi and Optimus, still generating “zero sales today, yet inform ~75% of our ~$1.02 trillion price target.” BNP Paribas, however, also estimated that Tesla will have an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030, 17 million cumulative Optimus robot deliveries by 2040, and more than 11 million FSD subscriptions by 2030.

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Investor's Corner

BNP Paribas Exane initiates Tesla coverage with “Underperform” rating

The firm’s projections for Tesla still include an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has received a bearish call from BNP Paribas Exane, which initiated coverage on the stock with an Underperform rating and a $307 price target, about 30% below current levels. 

The firm’s analysts argued that Tesla’s valuation is driven heavily by artificial intelligence ventures such as the Robotaxi and Optimus, which are both still not producing any sales today.

Tesla’s valuation

In its note, BNP Paribas Exane stated that Tesla’s two AI-led programs, the Robotaxi and Optimus robots, generate “zero sales today, yet inform ~75% of our ~$1.02 trillion price target.” The research firm’s model projected a maximum bull-case valuation of $2.7 trillion through 2040, but after discounting milestone probabilities, its base-case valuation remained at $1.02 trillion.

The analysts described their outlook as optimistic toward Tesla’s AI ventures but cautioned that the stock’s “unfavorable risk/reward is clear,” adding that consensus earnings expectations for 2026 remain too high. Tesla’s market cap currently stands around $1.44 trillion with a trailing twelve-month revenue of $92.7 billion, which BNP Paribas argued does not justify Tesla’s P/E ratio of 258.59, as noted in an Investing.com report.

Tesla and its peers

BNP Paribas Exane’s report also included a comparative study of the “Magnificent Seven,” finding Tesla’s current market valuation as rather aggressive. “Our unique comparative analysis of the ‘Mag 7’ reveals the extreme nature of TSLA’s valuation, as the market implicitly says TSLA’s 2035 earnings (~55% of which will be driven by Robotaxi & Optimus, w/ zero sales now) have the same level of risk & value-appropriation as the ‘Mag 6’s’ 2026 earnings,” the firm noted.

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The firm’s projections for Tesla include an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030, 17 million cumulative Optimus robot deliveries by 2040 priced above $20,000 each, and more than 11 million Full Self-Driving subscriptions by 2030. Interestingly enough, these seem to be rather optimistic projections for one of the electric vehicle maker’s more bearish estimates today.

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